I Mashed In Little League

2011-2012 NFL Playoff Predictions - Conference Championships

2012-01-21T14:41:00.001-05:00

At least I was .500 last week. The AFC games went as anticipated, but NFC favorites, New Orleans and Green Bay, both made earlier than anticipated exits.

New Orleans @ San Francisco
What a way to start the weekend. New Orleans was able to put 30+ points despite being outdoors and 2,000 miles from home, but it wasn’t enough as San Francisco mustered 36, their second highest point total (48 v. TB) of the year. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis had the game of their lives, but the bigger story may have been just how much went wrong for the Saints. They had 5 turnovers, all of the excruciatingly costly variety. It all started when Pierre Thomas got knocked out by Donte Whitner at the Niners’ 2 yard line, causing the Saints to leave 3 or 7 points on the field in their first possession. Then there’s a Brees INT that was returned inside the 5. After the Niners scored, Courtney Roby fumbled the ensuing kickoff. An Akers FG later, and the Saints are down 17-0 and without Pierre Thomas. The Saints got back into the game and seemingly had it won, but they left too much time on the clock, as their defense couldn’t hold the Niners to a FG attempt and a shot at advancing in overtime. What a dramatic win for the Niners.

Denver @ New England
Contrary to popular belief, the NFL season did not end when the Broncos season fizzled out in a 45-10 yawner that saw Tom Brady complete 26 passes for 6 TDs while the holy hype train completed just 3 more passes than Brady tossed TDs despite playing catch up for the entirety of the contest. Hell, the Patriots even dabbled with Aaron Hernandez as a ball carrier, giving him 5 totes which he turned into 61 yards and a near rushing score. Rob Gronkowski continued his dominance over opposing defenses, catching 10 passes (1 more than Denver’s QB completed) for 3 TDs. It was laughable how easily New England marched down the field and scored at will on the overmatched Broncos. This one was well decided at halftime, where the Patriots led by 28 and put it on cruise control the rest of the way. Tom Brady moves on and continues his drive for a 4th ring while John Elway gets to start his heartburn of an offseason attempting to put more lipstick on his pig.

Houston @ Baltimore
Guessed this score correctly (20-13). Baltimore was clearly the better team in this one, but they’ve got an ugly way of playing not to lose. Despite being the inferior team starting a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs, the Texans had a shot of tying it up ahead of the 2 minute warning before TJ Yates’ was intercepted by Ed Reed. Yes, the Ravens are moving on to the AFC title game, but there were a few negatives to take from this one. Joe Flacco continues to wilt under pressure. I like Flacco, but I’m put off by his inability to improvise when the play breaks down. He’s got to get a lot better in that area if this team is going to be able to match points with the Patriots. Ray Rice was held to under 3 yards per carry and was held out of the endzone on three straight runs inside the 5 in what could have been a huge empty drive. Arian Foster pretty much did what he wanted against their defense, totaling 154 yards and a score. Torrey Smith was held to just 9 yards on 1 reception. He’s got to be productive, regardless of who’s covering him, if the offense is to be productive. Again, it’s a win, but Baltimore can’t feel great about their mo heading into the showdown at Foxboro.

Giants @ Packers
Wow, I’ve got to say that even though I called the Giants as my surprise playoff team, I’m shocked at how easily they had their way with the Packers, shutting down Aaron Rodgers and his arsenal of weapons. Despite playing catch up for the majority of the game, no Packers receiver was able to tally more than 45 yards, and Donald Driver was the only one to find the endzone. Hakeem Nicks caught as many passes as Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson together, more than doubled their combined yardage total, and scored twice. This one went so not as expected for the Packers. Rodgers not only threw an INT but turned the ball over on a sack. I quit counting the dropped passes, but the one by Jermichael Finley on 3rd down inside the Giants’ 40 down 7 was a dagger. The next time they got the ball, Ryan Grant fumbled, and Mario Manningham scored on the next play. The Packers were done after that. The Giants are an extremely opportunistic team firing on all cylinders right now, and I truly believe that Eli is one of the elite QBs in the league. He has come miles in the confidence standpoint, and it’s as if the game has finally slowed down for him.

Conference Championship Predictions

Ravens @ Patriots (Sunday, 3:00)
In the first of what should be two tremendous matchups, the Ravens travels up the east coast to face a Patriots team that they beat the last time these two hooked up in the playoffs. When the Ravens won at New England two years ago, they dominated the Patriots on the ground and made life miserable for Tom Brady. Ray Rice ran for 159 yards and scored twice. Flacco wasn’t at his best, throwing for 34 yards and an INT in that one. You know Baltimore won’t be overwhelmed in that atmosphere, but Brady and that offense are on fire.

When the Patriots have the ball I think you’ll see Lardarius Webb take on Wes Welker and for Jimmy Smith to cover Deion Branch. That Webb-Welker matchup should be entertaining. Flashing back to the game from two years ago, what stands out most for me in that one is that Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski had yet to become Patriots. Who is going to stop those guys this time around? While, the Ravens will mix coverage all game to give Brady different looks, I expect to see them put Cary Williams on Aaron Hernandez, matching speed with speed, as often as possible. Spending most of the game shadowing Gronkowski should be safety Bernard Pollard with some help from Smith and the linebackers. Look for Pollard to beat on Gronk early and often, trying to cut him down before he’s able to make plays after the catch. I expect Pollard to be the key to their success defensively Sunday. If those DBs can keep their heads above water, that will free up Ed Reed to do what he does best – roam the field and make plays.

When the Ravens have the ball they’ve got to establish Ray Rice on the ground, for multiple reasons. One, it keeps Joe Flacco from having to win the game or spend the most of it trying to make too many plays. Two, it keeps Brady and those receivers on the sidelines. Last week, the Texans focused on shutting down Rice and making Flacco beat them. They were able to slow Rice and keep Flacco in check, but unfortunately the Texans didn’t have enough offense to be completely successful. The Patriots won’t have that problem, so everyone on the Ravens’ offense must step it up this week. It’s going to be tough. Anquan can catch in traffic, but he’s not separating from anyone. Torrey Smith doesn’t have much of a route tree in his arsenal, so he’s not maximizing his speed and elusiveness. No one’s confusing Dickson and Pitta for Gronkowski and Hernandez. Like it or not, Flacco is going to have to make some plays in this one. Will he wilt under pressure, or will he extend plays and perhaps write a new chapter in his legacy?

I’ve been on the Ravens all year, but it’s going to take a near perfect game on both sides of the ball for them to leave Foxboro victorious. Tom Brady is going to get his, but I’m expecting the Ravens to take the run game out of play and make shutting down the TEs a priority. The more they can force Brady to throw deep, the better off they’ll be. Make no mistake, I obviously view Gisele’s guy as one of the game’s elite of all time, but if I can make Ed Reed more of a factor and force Brady to look more for Branch and Welker than Gronk and Hernandez, I like my chances.

Everything looks to be in New England’s favor right now. They destroyed Denver, and Baltimore barely got by Houston. No contest right? New England will have a much tougher time against Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs than they did against the Broncos, while the Ravens should find New England’s defense more giving than Houston’s. The Ravens’ defense slows down Brady just enough, and Ray Rice finds the endzone three times, lastly on the game’s final drive, as Baltimore exits Foxboro with another road playoff win.

Ravens 30-27

Giants @ 49ers (Sunday, 6:30)
I wonder what the preseason odds would have been on these two teams meeting up in the NFC title game. The Giants needed a win against Dallas in week 17 to just make the playoffs, and here they stand, one game away from getting back to the Super Bowl. The Niners are the league’s most surprising team, going from 6-10 last year to 13-3 this year, good for the second best record in football. These two teams met back in week 10 with San Francisco pulling out a 7 point home victory when the Giants were unable to pick up 2 yards on 3 plays from the Giants 10. That would have given them first and goal from very close and a great chance of forcing extra football. Justin Smith batted down an Eli Manning pass on 4th down, and Alex Smith came out for a few kneel downs before the celebration ensued. With all of the veterans on the Giants, that loss is surely serving as at least a bit of motivation this week.

The key to San Francisco’s success this year was, on paper, simple – run the ball and stop the run. Jim Harbaugh hinted at a more open offense last week, asking Smith to make the plays championship QBs must make, and he obliged with 4 total TDs and a shade under 300 yards passing. If there was a big play to be made by the Niners last Saturday, Alex Smith was front and center – from the 2 TDs to Davis and the play of the game, his 28 yard keeper TD. Can he pull it off two weeks in a row, this time against a much stouter defense? I don’t believe they’ll be able to establish much on the ground, and I think Harbaugh knows that. I’m sure he’s been feeding and prepping Smith all week on ways to expose and beat that aggressive Giants defense. If the Niners are to advance to their first Super Bowl since Steve Young and Jerry Rice torched Junior Seau’s Chargers almost 20 years ago, they’ll need to repeat last week’s A+ performance on both sides of the ball. Will Davis bust loose for a third straight game (15 catches, 298 yds)? Will Justin and Aldon Smith put enough consistent pressure on Eli and company to disrupt the offense’s timing? If so, All Pro Patrick Willis, breakout backer Navorro Bowman, and super safety Dashon Goldson will be able to do what they do best – cover a lot of ground and make big plays.

Do the Giants look determined or what? After embarrassing the Falcons and stifling the champs, you’ve got to like the defense’s chances of making things hard on the Niners. The front four, specifically JPP, Tuck, and Osi, should be able to put quite a bit more consistent pressure on Alex Smith, forcing him into more mistakes and less big plays downfield. Davis is SF’s biggest passing weapon, but the Giants pretty much shut down Tony Gonzalez and Jermichael Finley in their last two games. Also, Davis had one big play on a defensive breakdown against the Niners in their last matchup. Surely, Coach Coughlin has brought this up a few times during the week. Offensively, if that line doesn’t collapse on Eli, you’ve got to like his chances of making plays downfield with Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham. Nicks is in a zone right now, looking like a guy putting together a playoff run we’ll remember for a while. New York will need Jacobs and Bradshaw to loosen up the defense, at least a little bit, and I think the former will end up being a factor in this one; if nothing else than to keep the Niners a little more honest defensively.

The Giants began a four game losing skid with that week 10 loss. Will the Niners be the team to end their current 4 game win streak? While San Francisco returning to prominence is nostalgic, I can’t get all the way on board just yet. They needed an abundance of turnovers and a couple of career games to get this far, and with the Giants wreaking of positive mojo, I can’t see the Niners being as fortunate this week. I don’t think Smith will be able to match scores with Eli, and no one has abused defenses the last three weeks as much as Nicks. The Giants hold Vernon Davis in check and are able to generate enough pressure with their front four to force Smith and the Niners into too many 3rd and unmanageables. Eli and a stout defense get New York one step closer to another storybook championship.

Giants 24-20

2011-2012 NFL Playoff Predictions - Divisional Round

2012-01-12T22:15:00.000-05:00

Wow, great start last week. Went 1-3 with my picks, but no major bracket damage sustained. Quick recaps.

Cincinnati @ Houston
I was surprised at how well Houston perked up in the postseason. Wade Phillips had that defense clicking and forcing Andy Dalton into bad decision after bad decision. Cincinnati’s defense, specifically that secondary has a bit of soul searching to do. Two players in particular, Reggie Nelson and Chris Crocker, need to search a little deeper. Those two left their manhood in Cincinnati. I understand that Arian Foster is a strong runner, but you’re not tackling Jim Brown.

Detroit @ New Orleans
This one went about as expected, but it could have played out quite a bit differently had Detroit been able to capitalize on Marques Colston’s first quarter fumble. Already up 7-0, Detroit got the ball back with a chance to put the home team in an early 2 TD hole, but the Lions ended up punting from midfield and never increased their lead. The Saints cut the deficit to 4 just before the half and took the lead for good just 2 minutes into the second half. Calvin Johnson certainly got his (12-211-2), but Drew Brees, again, got more.

Atlanta @ NY Giants
What a disappointment the Falcons are. After getting embarrassed at home last postseason by the Packers, you go out and invest your draft in Julio Jones, and aren’t able to put up a single offensive point. I repeat, a single offensive point. Matt Ryan and Mike Smith continue their road and playoff losing ways and did so in pathetic fashion. Horrible play calling overall but especially in short yardage. All that planning and focus, and you lay an absolute egg against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Well done Falclowns. Great job by Eli working the deep ball and keeping the passing game clicking even without Victor Cruz doing a lot.

Pittsburgh @ Denver
Now I didn’t expect this banged up Steeler team to go far this postseason, but I figured they’d bring their defense with them to Denver. After holding baby jesus to 1, yes 1, offensive yard in the opening quarter, the Steelers played some of the most undisciplined football in recent memory, allowing constant 1 on 1 (or none) situations for Denver to abuse them with. Fitting that this one would end on the first play of overtime with the Steelers overcommitting and chasing their postseason hopes into the endzone.

Divisional Round Predictions

Saints @ 49ers (Saturday, 4:30)
Something’s gotta give. The Saints finished second in the league (to the Packers) in points scored per game (34.2) and receiving TDs (46), while only the Steelers allowed fewer points per game than the Niners (14.3). The Saints lost three games on the season, all of them on the road. The Niners went 7-1 at home with their one loss coming in the overtime game against the Cowboys. Drew Brees’ home/road splits are telling. He threw 29 TDs and only 6 INTs at home, but he tossed only 17 TDs and increased his INTs to 8 on the road. He was also sacked twice as much (16 v. 8) on the road.

Alex Smith was very efficient at home, throwing 12 TDs and only 3 INTs, and Jim Harbaugh is going to want to continue that in San Francisco’s first postseason game since 2002. I fully expect San Francisco to go with a heavy run and short pass game plan. A key matchup will be Michael Crabtree against, I’m guessing, Jabari Greer. Vernon Davis is still their most explosive offensive talent, but Crabtree has established himself as the Niners’ primary passing weapon, catching at least 5 passes in 5 of their last 7 games. When they go to the ground, it will be Frank Gore getting the ball, but the veteran rusher has had a really quiet second half of the season. Gore hasn’t eclipsed the 100 yard mark since November 6 against Washington and has only 3 TDs in that stretch.

There’s no doubting what New Orleans is going to do when they get the ball. Brees is going to be throwing it a lot which works in their favor since San Francisco excels defensively against the run and are nothing special against the pass. They gave up 427 yards to the Dallas combo of Tony Romo and Jon Kitna and surrendered another 416 yards passing to Michael Vick. Eli got them for 311, and Ben racked up 330, both Niner wins. What gives? Does Brees throw more road scores than normal, or does that pass defense finally clamp down on a big time passer?

While I think Brees will do his thing, I’ve got Pierre Thomas being the difference maker in this one. Yes, the Niners are stout against the run, but Thomas has been incredibly reliable and productive with limited touches. While Darren Sproles is always a sliver of space away from breaking off a highlight TD, I think New Orleans is going to have to run the ball more than normal in this one, and Thomas is the guy they’ll lean on. Roman Harper is apparently gimpy with an ankle injury but will give it a go. One of the games elite run stopping safeties, Harper will be key to keeping Gore minimized and forcing Smith into poor passing decisions. It’s not as pretty as last week, but the Saints move on.

Saints 31-27

Broncos @ Patriots (Saturday, 8:00)
Denver will no doubt attempt to start this game the way December’s matchup between these two teams began. In that contest, the Broncos leaned heavily on the run game early and were able to get out to a 9 point 2nd quarter lead before Tom Brady led the Patriots on 5 unanswered scoring drives, putting the game away in the 3rd quarter. New England is putting up a ton of points, but it would be scary if those guys could put together a complete game for a change.

Going back over a month, the Patriots have unnecessarily struggled against inferior opponents. They let the Redskins hand with them throughout, they allowed the Colts to score 3 unanswered 4th quarter TDs, trailed Miami 17-0 at halftime, and spotted Buffalo a 21 point lead in their regular season finale, a game they needed to win to clinch home field advantage. They can’t afford to let Denver hang around and chance destiny. Look for Brady to spread it out and take advantage of his TEs – Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The latter is the key to their offense. Each play, Brady approaches the line, reads Hernandez’s coverage, calls the play, and goes though his progressions accordingly.

Despite last week’s heroics, the Broncos backed into the playoffs on a three game losing streak, a streak that started with that 41-23 loss to the Patriots. They were able to take down a team with a stubborn, undisciplined defense and a gimpy, statutory QB. They’ll face a weaker defense this week, one that they’ve recently faced and partially bested, but I have a hard time seeing them hold the Patriots to 23 points, Pittsburgh’s point total from last week. In fact, the Patriots have scored 23 or less points just 3 times this season, and they’re averaging over 36 points during their 8 game win streak. They’ve got to establish Willis McGahee early and often, or this will likely get ugly.

New England isn’t going to leave itself susceptible to the big plays the way Pittsburgh did last week. They’ll be facing this “unnatural” offense for a second time this season and should be a focused, pissed off team of players looking to avoid embarrassment at home and losing their third straight postseason opener. Denver gets to 23 points, but so does New England, and then some. I like Hernandez to have another big game, but Stevan Ridley established himself as the Patriots’ best ball carrier late in the year and could very well have a career game against a Bronco team that has struggled against the run.

Patriots 34-23

Texans @ Ravens (Sunday, 1:00)
The AFC’s second matchup of the week features two more teams that squared off earlier this year. Back in week 6, Matt Schaub and the Texans traveled to Baltimore and hung around for 3 quarters before falling 29-14. Joe Flacco lit up a tough Texans secondary for 305 yards, his 3rd highest output of the season, Anquan Boldin accounted for 132 of those yards on 8 catches, and Ray Rice eclipsed the 100 yard rushing mark. Despite the offensive production, the key to that game was Baltimore holding Arian Foster and Ben Tate to a combined 90 yards on the ground, and more importantly, no scores.

One player missing from that matchup was Texans receiver Andre Johnson. The All Pro hampered by a hamstring got into the endzone last week, and I’ve got to think the Texans are going to look to feature him again in order to give Foster and Tate some running room. This will easily be the toughest defense rookie passer TJ Yates has yet to face in his brief professional career. He defined “game management” last week, but I’ll be shocked if the Ravens allow Foster to rack up 153 yards on the ground this week like he did against the Bengals, giving Yates the comfort to constantly work in short yardage situations. Owen Daniels will be limited by a “hand issue” (see broken bones) and I’m guessing will serve mostly as a decoy.

Ray Lewis is supposedly back to 100% health, and Anquan Boldin is reportedly over his late season knee injury. If I can pull a negative out of the last matchup, it’s the fact that Baltimore had to settle for Billy Cundiff field goals on 5 occasions. More of those trips across the 50 need to result in 6 points this time around. They also must make Rice the focal point of the offense. He needs to have more touches than pass attempts by Flacco. On defense, the Ravens will need to shut down the outside runs, something Houston does well and often, and force the undersized Texans blockers to play more vertically.

Johnson gets lose for one score, but Foster and Tate get shut out again. Rice gets his touches and controls the ball for Baltimore in a game that doesn’t turn out as close as the scoreboard indicates.

Ravens 20-13

Giants @ Packers (Sunday, 4:30)
Ok, lesson learned. Last week I mentioned the Giants as my pick for this year’s surprise playoff team, but I foolishly believed Atlanta was ready for prime time. After emasculating the Falcons, New York is in position blow up the brackets in a matchup with the champs. This is the third postseason rematch of a regular season hookup; one which saw the Packers emerge (escape) from New York with a 3 point victory as Eli Manning was nearly able to match scores with Aaron Rodgers in a matchup of two of the league’s worst pass defenses.

New York already had Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora to terrorize opposing passers, but second year end Jason Pierre-Paul exploded for 16.5 sacks and has become one of the league’s most explosive defensive players. Green Bay was one of the league’s worst teams at protecting their QB, but they did go the majority of the season without veteran left tackle Chad Clifton and lost Bryan Bulaga for a quarter of the year to injury as well. Fortunately for Rodgers and the Packers, both Clifton and Bulaga are expected to be a go for Sunday’s showdown. How those two handle New York’s edge rushers will go a long way in determining whether or not the champs are still playing next week.

As a wannabe Packer fan, I start getting uncomfortable when I think about Eli Manning squaring off against that 32nd ranked pass defense again. Eli’s been locked in the last two weeks, throwing for 623 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs against the Cowboys and Falcons. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are both on fire, and even Mario Manningham got into the endzone last week. The Patriots, Saints, and Giants join the Packers as the four worst teams in the league against the pass, so at least Green Bay is in good company in being overly generous against the pass.

Cruz, Nicks, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley all eclipsed 80 yards receiving and totaled 4 TDs between them in the last meeting. Why should that change this time? The Packers don’t force a lot of three-and-outs, but what they need to do is have the Giants ending more of their drives with Lawrence Tynes than they do with Mason Crosby. James Starks’ ankle isn’t an issue anymore and he’s ready to get back on the field. He has a chance to be a big factor against a Giants defense that will be focusing on Rodgers and perhaps leaving some gaps in that run defense for the strong Starks to take advantage of.

When the Giants are clicking, they’ll score on anyone, and only the Vikings, Raiders, Bills, and Bucs gave up more TDs through the air than the Packers this year. I look for Eli to throw for 3 TDs on the day, but again it won’t be enough, as the Packers earn their 14th straight home win on the arm of Aaron Rodgers and 4 passing TDs, 2 to Jordy Nelson. This game has the potential to be a classic.

Packers 38-34

Summary –
Saints, Patriots, Ravens, and Packers advance

Remaining Rounds –
No changes. My potential final four are still alive, and I’m sticking with the Saints to beat Ravens in the Super Bowl.

2011-2012 NFL Playoff Predictions

2012-01-05T22:51:00.000-05:00

The dust has settled on the 2011 NFL regular season, and six teams remain. Four months ago, I wouldn’t have been surprised if you had told me that Green Bay and New England would be the #1 seed in their respective conferences. I would have been surprised had Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and New Orleans not make the playoffs. The Texans were expected to win the South with the Manningless Colts, and anything goes in the NFC East where the Giants emerged as division champs. Actually, I nailed 8 of the 12 teams; 4 in each conference.

The real surprises are in the other three teams – Cincinnati, Denver, and San Francisco. The Bengals went the distance with a rookie QB, while the Broncos somehow managed to make it to the dance with a guy who regularly goes full quarters without completing a single pass. The biggest surprise though comes from the west where Jim Harbaugh took basically the same 7-9 roster from last year and clinched a first round bye.

Who’s going to win this thing? Can the Packers repeat? Will the Patriots finally win another playoff game? Are the Ravens for real? Can the Steelers get back to the finals? Can anyone slow down the Saints? Will the Giants ride their momentum wave to another title? Looking at the field, I feel that I can quickly and comfortably eliminate four of the contenders. Here we go:

Houston Texans
The Texans endured nearly a third season ending QB injury last week when rookie TJ Yates suffered a shoulder “bruise” against the Titans. Andre Johnson looks good to go for this week, but he’s only appeared in 3 games since October 2. Sure they still have Arian Foster and Ben Tate heading up one of the league’s best run games, but this is a team that capped off the regular season with three straight losses to teams with a combined 13 wins, including the Suck-for-Luck Colts. You don’t end a regular season that way and march through the playoffs.

Denver Broncos
In his last three games Tim Tebow is 0-3 with a 41% completion percentage, a 1-4 TD to INT ratio, and an awesome 43.1 passer rating. He only throws to one receiver a game, and he’ll be facing the Steelers in round 1. Taint happenin’ Timmy.

Cincinnati Bengals
0-7. That’s the Bengals record this year against the field of playoff teams. Think they’re gonna run off 4 straight? Me neither.

Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford had one hell of a season, but I have a hard time backing a team that lost a meaningful game to a Packers team taking the week off; everyone except Matt Flynn who just threw another touchdown. Now they get to face Drew Brees and the Saints team that beat them 31-17 a month ago.

That’s a third of the field that I feel doesn’t have much of a chance of hoisting a trophy in Indy. Let’s eliminate another third.

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons still struggle on the road (4-4 this year), and they’ll have to play all their games away from the Georgia Dome unless they meet up with Detroit in the conference title game. Their biggest win streak of the year was 3 games, bookended by the Panthers and Colts, so they’ve yet to put together a serious run this year. I think their matchup with the Giants is the most intriguing of the wild card round games, but I wouldn’t like their chances of then going to Green Bay and dethroning the champs.

San Francisco 49ers
Aside from the MNF win against the Steelers, I wasn’t impressed with what I saw from the 49ers over the last month of the season against their division. In three road games, they lost to Arizona and beat the Seahawks and Rams by a combined 9 points. Yes, the Seahawks had been playing a lot better late in the year, but there’s no excuse for that Rams game. The Niners clinched a bye with that win, but that game was in question for far too long. I still don’t buy Alex Smith as a championship QB, and they’ll be going into their divisional round game off a bye, off some not-so-great football, and facing (probably) the Saints.

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have the championship QB, but they’re not without questions. Will Isaac Redman pick up the slack created with Rashard Mendenhall’s season ending ACL injury? Will LaMarr Woodley and Maurkice Pouncey be good to go for the playoffs? Will that offensive line be able to block anyone? When will Big Ben take the hit to the ankle that ends his season? I’ve learned not to underestimate this bunch, but I think they’d have to overcome too much. Something tells me Roethlisberger doesn’t finish their last game.

New York Giants
Here’s my guess at this year’s surprise team. They were the last team to punch their dance card, but, now healthy, they’re as capable as anyone of putting points on the scoreboard. I’ve bought in. I really like me some Eli Manning, and damn Victor Cruz can play some football. JPP looks like a star in the making on defense, and the playoffs have always seemed to generate that next big thing kind of player. If they can beat the Falcons, I believe that the Giants are one of two teams (Saints) that can go to Wisconsin and beat the Packers. Still, this is a team that lost at home to the Redskins by 13 just 3 weeks ago and tasted defeat at the hands of the 49ers, Saints, and Packers this season. While I really think they could shock the world, I had to get this thing down to a final four and they just missed the cut.

Each of these remaining teams could take home the Lombardi, and it wouldn’t surprise me. The Packers look to be getting healthy and hot at the right time, and someone is going to have to beat them at home to get to the Super Bowl. New Orleans was my preseason pick to win it all, and I definitely still like their chances. Should the Saints and Packers hook up again in the conference championship game, it will probably end up a more exciting contest than the Super Bowl. The Patriots clinched the top seed in the AFC, but that defense has got to keep Tom Brady up at night. In recent weeks they’ve gotten behind the Bills and Dolphins by multiple scores and come back to win both games. They can’t do that against the Packers, Saints, or the last team in final four, the Ravens. I’m not completely on the Joe Flacco bandwagon, but I’m driving Ray Rice’s. Put the ball in that man’s hands 25+ times a game, and trust that defense.

Predicted Matchups and Outcomes

Wild Card

Bengals @ Texans
It’s not that the Texans are losing. It’s HOW they’re losing. I don’t like what I’m seeing from that team, and I believe the Bengals are strong enough on both sides of the ball to get ahead of and hold them off. They also finished the regular season playing a lot better ball than Houston. Andy Dalton throws 2 TDs, and TJ Yates turns it over twice.

Bengals 20-17

Lions @ Saints
Again, you don’t let the Packers light you up in a game they’re really not into and then go to New Orleans and beat the Saints. Stranger things have happened, but I think Detroit’s season ends Saturday.

Saints 38-24

Falcons @ Giants
I’m really excited about this matchup. These teams resemble each other quite a bit on both sides of the ball, and I’m having the hardest time picking this winner. In the Falcons’ favor, I really like how Brent Grimes matches up with Victor Cruz, and both Roddy White and Julio Jones can torch that Giants secondary. That may just be enough for the Falcons to help Ryan and Mike Smith earn their first playoff wins. I know I listed the Giants as my surprise team, but as the week goes on I’m leaning more and more towards the upset. Atlanta has to be hungry to avenge last year’s early exit. Julio Jones is the player of the game.

Falcons 37-27

Steelers @ Broncos
If you look up ‘struggling’ in the dictionary you’ll see a picture of Tebow throwing a football. The league’s best defense isn’t the antidote to that ail. Denver’s only hope is to establish the ground game with Willis McGahee and hope Tebow can complete a few fundamental passes. The banged up Steelers drew the right team in the opening round.

Steelers 20-9

Order of Confidence (high to low) –New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Atlanta

Divisional Round

Bengals @ Patriots – Patriots
Andy Dalton and AJ Green keep it interesting for a little while, but the Patriots have too much firepower for the Bengals.

Steelers @ Ravens – Ravens
Yep, they go 3-0 against the Steelers on the season. I don’t think the physical Ravens are what the Steelers want/need right now.

Saints @ 49ers – Saints
The Niners are one and done. I can’t see them keeping pace with the Saints even if the game is outdoors out West. This won’t be NO/SEA from last year.

Falcons @ Packers – Packers
It’s close for a half, but Green Bay ends up being too much for Atlanta. The Falcons become one dimensional, and Matt Ryan throws 2 costly interceptions.

Conference Championships

Ravens @ Patriots – Ravens
Ray Rice does it again. The Ravens have all the defense and just enough offense to take down the Patriots in Foxboro.

Saints @ Packers – Saints
The Saints prove to be the hottest team in football at this point and get opening game revenge against the Packers.

Super Bowl

Ravens v. Saints – Saints
Yep, no change here. Same two teams. Same predicted outcome. Brees is the MVP.

I’ve still got the Saints beating the Packers at Lambeau and facing the Ravens in the Super Bowl. I believed that they would be the last two standing at the end of the season, and I’ve yet to see anything to sway me from that.

Talbuc's Take - Week 15

2011-12-21T22:58:00.000-05:00

This week I got to see the Falcons whip the Jaguars, the Ravens flake at San Diego, punchless Pittsburgh lose out West, and the Bucs sink to a new low against Dallas. I missed all the Sunday day games, and since I don't feel like talking about the games I did see, this week I'll take a look at the playoff picture. In addition, I'll take my first shot at a top 10 for the 2012 draft.

1) New England (v. MIA; v. BUF)

2) Baltimore (v. CLE; @CIN)

3) Houston (@IND; v. TEN)

4) Denver (@BUF; v. KC)

5) Pittsburgh (v. STL; @CLE)

6) NY Jets (v. NYG; @MIA)

7) Cincinnati (v. ARI; v. BAL)

8) Tennessee (v. JAX; @HOU)

9) Oakland (@KC; v. SD)

10) San Diego (@DET; @OAK)

Barring monumental upsets, the Patriots will win their last two and clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That’s because Baltimore collapsed at San Diego and is no longer in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed. The Ravens and Steelers both have a game remaining against the Browns, but Pittsburgh’s other opponent is St. Louis while Baltimore gets Cincinnati, a team fighting for the final playoff spot.

The difference in the #2 and #5 seeds this year is that the #2 gets a first round bye while the #5 gets to travel to Denver to face Baby Jesus’ Broncos. The only scenario where Denver doesn’t get in is if they lose their last two games and San Diego or Oakland wins both of theirs. Denver locks it up with a win next week at KC regardless of what happens this week with any of the teams involved. Given the way these teams are currently playing, I don’t see Denver losing a potential division-clinching game to the Chiefs at Mile High. I don’t care if you’re as experienced as the Steelers or Ravens, the last team I want to face in week 1 of the playoffs is the Broncos at home.

I've got the final seed coming down to the Jets or Bengals. Neither has an easy two weeks ahead. The Jets face the Giants this week, a team fighting for a spots on the other half of the bracket, and then get to travel to Miami and face a team that always plays them tough. Going back to ’08, the Jets are 3-4 against the Dolphins. The beat up Bengals host the Cardinals, owners of the league’s third longest current win streak (4 games) and victors of 6 of 7 overall. During that streak the Cardinals have beaten the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers, so besting the Bengals certainly isn’t out of the question. Arizona is still mathematically alive, so this week it’s going to come down to who wants it more.

I say Cincinnati goes 1-1 at best and could very easily go 0-2, which would allow the Jets to still get that last seed by winning 1 of their last 2. The Giants are still playing for the NFC East, but I’ve got to think Rex Ryan can get his team to beat an overmatched Dolphins team in a must-win game. New York takes the last seed, Cincinnati has something to build upon for next season, and San Diego’s late run was all for naught.

1) Green Bay (v. CHI; v. DET)

2) San Francisco (@SEA; @STL)

3) New Orleans (v. ATL; v. CAR)

4) Dallas (v. PHI; @NYG)

5) Atlanta (@NO; v. TB)

6) Detroit (v. SD; @GB)

7) Seattle (v. SF; @ARI)

8) Chicago (@GB; v. MIN)

9) NY Giants (@NYJ; v. DAL)

10) Arizona (@CIN; v. SEA)

Damn, there goes 16-0. What a letdown from the Packers this week. Aaron Rodgers continues to lose protection, and that will obviously be something to keep an eye on as the regular season winds down and the postseason picks up. Still, they’ll get the #1 seed barring a complete collapse. The #2 seed currently belongs to the 49ers thanks to a playoff-like performance against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. Seattle might be the hottest team in the league, but the 49ers are a team on a mission. I like them to avoid another letdown and finish the year as the second seed.

New Orleans now must win out and hope for a 49er loss in order to get a first round bye. I love the scene surrounding this team heading into the playoffs. They’re pretty healthy, aside from Jimmy Graham’s back, and will be playing their last two at home before hosting at least one playoff game. Dallas currently holds the #4 spot, but who knows what’s going to happen with the NFC East in these last two weeks.

The Eagles finally resemble the team everyone thought they’d be, and while it’s too late for them to get in on the postseason action, they can sure play spoiler for the Cowboys. Dallas is likely to have their fate a little better defined by the time they take the field Saturday as their game kicks off at 4:15 while the Giants and Jets play at 1:00. I think Dallas loses this week and the Giants win. That would have them all tied up at 8-7 with a week 17 showdown in New York looming. Going back to ’08, the Giants own a 5-2 series record and won their last matchup two weeks ago on the road in comeback fashion. Garrett and Eli v. Garrett and Romo in a stressful situation? I’m taking the Giants.

The Falcons need one more win to clinch a spot in the postseason, and they’ll get that win next week against the Bucs if they can’t upset the Saints in the Superdome. Detroit sports the same 9-5 record, but I really don’t like their remaining matchups. Not only do they get to face the surging Chargers, but they get to close out with the champs. Maybe Green Bay dials it down after clinching the #1 seed against Chicago, but I wouldn’t count on it. Just one win and they’re in, but that win is far from in their pocket. I’m really leaning towards San Diego taking this one and don’t have faith in the Lions beating the Packers, regardless of how long the Packers’ starters play. If things play out this way, it isn’t necessarily all bad for Detroit. I don’t think Seattle, Chicago, or Arizona goes 2-0. That means the only team Detroit truly has to worry about would be the loser of the Cowboys/Giants equation. Really, if Dallas loses this week, the Lions are in. The best Dallas could do at that point would be to go 9-7, which means they beat the Giants next week, which means they win the NFC East. The Giants, even if they win this week, would then finish no better than 8-8 by losing to Dallas in the finale, allowing Detroit to retain that 6th seed despite losing their last two.

My Playoff Bracket

Ok, so here’s how I see the playoffs shaping up:

AFC

1) New England

2) Baltimore

3) Houston

4) Denver

5) Pittsburgh

6) NY Jets

NFC

1) Green Bay

2) San Francisco

3) New Orleans

4) NY Giants

5) Atlanta

6) Detroit

Wild Card Round

#6 NY Jets @ #3 Houston

#5 Pittsburgh @ #4 Denver

#6 Detroit @ #3 New Orleans

#5 Atlanta @ #4 NY Giants

I imagine that the Broncos will be the lone home dog in this round of action, but as I mentioned before, I’d hate to face them and the mojo they’re riding. I think this game will rival ATL/NYG for the most exciting of the wild card round, and while Tebow may have friends in high places, I’ll take Pittsburgh’s experience to pull them through to the next round.

I think the Saints end up with the easiest game of the week. It will be their third home contest in three weeks, and they should have no problem dictating their point total against the Lions. I’m really buying into the Saints playing 3 straight home games being a big boost to their playoff chances.

I believe Houston will do a good job of running the ball and stropping the run against the Jets. I’ll definitely go with Foster and Tate at home v. Green and LT in this one. TJ Yates will outplay Mark Sanchez as well.

The Falcons/Giants would be a really intriguing matchup. Atlanta is tough when playing to their potential, as seldom as that happens, and you know New York is going to be nuts with the Giants hosting a playoff game. I’ll take the road team in this one with the Falcons’ passing game being the difference – Roddy White, Juilio Jones, Tony Gonzales, and even Harry Douglas. Pick your poison New York.

Divisional Round

#5 Pittsburgh @ #1 New England

#3 Houston @ #2 Baltimore

#5 Atlanta @ #1 Green Bay

#3 New Orleans @ #2 San Francisco

This would be one heck of a menu of games. My predictions:

- New England wins its first postseason game since ’07

- Baltimore ends Houston’s first playoff experience

- Green Bay ends Atlanta’s season for the second straight year

- New Orleans is the round’s lone road victor

Conference Championships

#2 Baltimore @ #1 New England

#3 New Orleans @ #1 Green Bay

- Ray Rice does it to the Patriots again; Ravens move on

- Saints get their revenge; beat Packers on the Frozen Tundra

Super Bowl XLVI

Baltimore v. New Orleans

Sticking with my initial season prediction here – Saints beat the Ravens to capture their 2nd title in 3 seasons.

MVP – Drew Brees

VERY Early Draft Projection

The final draft order is not quite set, but I’ll make an attempt at an eventual top 10:

1) Indianapolis – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)

2) St. Louis – Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)

3) Minnesota – Matt Kalil (T, USC)

4) Cleveland – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)

5) Tampa Bay – Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)

6) Jacksonville – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)

7) Miami – Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)

8) Buffalo – Riley Reiff (T, Iowa)

9) Washington – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)

10) Carolina – Quinton Coples (DE, UNC)

Talbuc's Take - Week 14

2011-12-14T22:16:00.001-05:00

AFC

East
Rob Gronkowski is a robot. In a game where he set the NFL record for TDs in a season by a TE, Gronkowski dragged a helpless Reed Doughty and DeJon Gomes in his wake while DeAngelo Hall earned that money by playing the role of helpless voyeur. Hearing Greg Gumbel say “Rob Gronkowski shedding tacklers like they’re bad habits” was hilarious. They’ve scored at least 30 points in their last 5 games, but they’re allowing bad teams (Colts and Skins) to hang around dangerously long. Good lord they can’t let that happen this week because the Timmy Tebows handle the 4th quarter like Rain Man counts cards. New York played a second solid game in a row in what was probably their best overall performance since week 2. The much maligned around these parts Mark Sanchez had a career game, both throwing and running for two scores. They’re in the driver’s seat for the 6th seed and can probably go 2-1 and still clinch it. Where did you go Bills from Buffalo? They lost their 6th straight in a rout at San Diego and now face the Dolphins in their last winnable game. Speaking of those Dolphins, after falling to Philly, Miami fired Tony Sparano and got a jumpstart on finding their next head coach.

North
Baltimore avoided the monumental embarrassment of losing to the winless Colts by shutting them down 24-3 until a meaningless TD on the last play of the game. Cam Cameron seems to have figured out that Ray Rice can run with the football as the Rutgers rusher was front and center, again exceeding triple digits on the ground. That same game plan should work again this week against the Chargers, a team that has given up its share of yards on the ground (Peterson-98; Greene-112; Bush-157; McGahee-117; MJD-97). Their last three games aren’t gimmies, and Pittsburgh is matching them win for win. This last was may have been terribly costly, as Ben Roethlisberger heroically played the second half of Thursday’s game against the Browns with a really messed up ankle, limping around the pocket and pulling out a game they couldn’t afford to lose. His status is up in the air for this week’s game at San Francisco, but do you really see that guy NOT playing? If he plays, I like the Steelers in this one. They’re a bad matchup for the Niners in my opinion and are catching them at the right time. They’ll be without James Harrison though after he was suspended for his helmet to helmet on Colt McCoy. Speaking of McCoy, he apparently did suffer a concussion in that game and was permitted/put back on the field by the Browns. His dad’s pissed, and you can’t blame him. As much as I’m sure the Browns would like to see this story go away, I don’t think we’ve heard the last of this one. Man the Bengals are struggling against good teams. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 to the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Schaub-less Texans. They SHOULD beat the Rams on the road, but they’ll get the red hot Cardinals and Ravens after that. Maybe the Jets will get in the playoffs after all.

South
Way to go TJ Yates! Not only did the rookie notch his first game winning drive, connecting with Kevin Walter for the clinching score with only 2 seconds left as part of a 300 yard performance, he helped lead the Texans to their first ever division title and playoff birth. That was huge when you consider that Arian Foster wasn’t much of a factor on the ground. To have the rookie step up against a pretty stout defense had to give the whole team a big shot of confidence heading into the playoffs. They’ve three pretty winnable games left (CAR, IND, TEN) and should be fighting each week for one of the top seeds. Tennessee nearly completed their rally against the Saints but fell short when Jake Locker fell to the ground on 4th down. Stepping in for the injured Matt Hasselbeck, the rookie threw for 282 yards in just under 3 quarters of play. It looks like he’s going to get the start this week in Indy, and I’m really anxious to see how that goes. I’ve got a feeling Locker has a HUGE Sunday in Indy. I’ve also got to mention how nuts it is that Tennessee had three straight games finish with a score of 23-17 followed by a 22-17 game. Weird. How ‘bout those Jags! Trailing 14 -0 to the Succaneers, Jacksonville went on what seemed like a 276-0 run to earn their 4th win of the year. Blaine Gabbert had what might have been the best game of his short career. That doesn’t reflect terribly well on Tampa Bay since Gabbert shits himself whenever a defender invades his personal space. The Colts suck.

West
My my my. Well if Sunday’s miraculous comeback, the Timmy Tebows’ 6th straight victory, told us anything it’s this – god absolutely hates Marion Barber. Holy cow how does this keep happening to Denver’s opponents? Every one of these victories is a made for tv Lifetime special. As much as the media loves promoting these weekly 1 on 11 matchups, they’re not winning 6 straight without the leg and gut of Matt Prater. Well done kicker. Ok, so this time Baby Jesus started 3 of 16 for the first three quarters but ended the game 21 for 40 with 236 yards. I understand that it’s not where you start but where you finish that counts, but can someone get this guy to resemble a professional for at least half of a football game? My goodness. This has got to be some kind of 2012 end of world prelude. Go Von Miller! After missing one week with his hand injury, Miller got back in the game, took down Caleb Hanie, and now has 11.5 sacks in 12 games. Defensive ROY. Oakland’s a game back but looks to have ran face first into the proverbial wall. Having been dominated on the road two weeks in a row at Miami and Green Bay to the tune of a 80-30 scoreboard showing, they now return home to hold the fort down against the Lions, a team that has put up point totals of 48, 34, 45, 49, and 34 this year. Yeah, not good timing. They’re also without Darren McFadden again, as it was revealed this week that his foot injury may be more of the Lisfranc variety than a simple sprain as has been advertised so far. I don’t see them catching the Tebows. San Diego’s making a run. They handled a second straight subpar opponent, whipping the Bills in a game that saw Buffalo’s only TD come from the defensive side of the ball when Bryan Scott owned Philip Rivers in the endzone. They’re starting to click, but it’s probably too late. San Diego is 2 down to Denver and has Baltimore coming into town this week. Kansas City lost their 8th game of the season, and then Todd Haley lost his job. That was only a matter of time. That place is a mess right now, and he just never seemed a fit for that team/roster.

NFC

East
That was really an enjoyable game to watch Sunday night. The Giants won at Dallas and took the division lead. This game had everything. Eli Manning throwing for 400 yards; Brandon Jacobs running over Gerald Sensabaugh what seemed like 95 times; DeMarco Murray’s impressive rookie year crashing to a halt with a broken ankle; Tony Romo throwing 4 TDs; Jerry Jones looking like he ate 10 taco supremes; and Jason Pierre-Paul dominating on defense and ending the game by blocking the potential game tying kick. New York got a true must-win and has to be feeling great about going 1-5 and sitting in first place. They’ve got to stay focused against a pesky Redskins team coming into town this week. Dallas on the other hand has to be reeling. They’ve lost their last two games in crazy fashion and must now beat the schizophrenic Eagles and then travel to New York and return the favor in order to win the division. If the Cowboys lose at Tampa this Saturday, they’re done. If the Giants beat the Skins, they can lose to the Jets and still win the division by closing out the regular season by beating the Cowboys at home. Philly beat Miami on the road, but their hole is far too deep for me to give a damn about how they’re doing. Washington gave New England much more of a fight than I thought they would and have played tough teams tough recently. I don’t see them beating the Giants this week, but maybe they get one more win against Minnesota next week.

North
13-0. The biggest story to emerge from the 30 point stomping of the Raiders was the third quarter loss of Greg Jennings to a knee injury. The Packers are hoping to have their #1 receiver back by the playoffs, which gives him a full month to heal up before the Divisional Round. You don’t just simply replace a Greg Jennings, but having Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, Randall Cobb, and Jermichael Finley certainly helps. Phil Simms says the problem with the Packers on defense is that the corners have been gambling too much. I’ll have to pay attention to that when they play a team that is really challenging them; not something I expect to happen this week at the Chiefs, their last road game. If Green Bay is to lose one of these last three, I’m guessing it’s the Lions who are likely to be fighting for a playoff spot through week 17. You can’t fight fate, at least not with Caleb Hanie as your QB. The Bears became just another victim of the holy hype train, losing in heartbreaking fashion. They generated zero offense for the second week in a row and now have to host the upstart Seahawks. Without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte this teams isn’t making the playoffs and might not win another game this season. After getting out to a 21-0 lead in what looked like the beginnings of a laugher, the Lions had to count their blessings that a blatant facemask penalty wasn’t called or else they probably end up losing that game. They couldn’t stop the Vikings once Joe Webb got on the field, and I’m convinced he would have scored given another chance from inside the 1. They get Ndamukong Suh back this week and will need him against the Raiders and Michael Bush. If they win this week at Oakland and next week at home against the Chargers, they can become victim #16 at Green Bay and still make the playoffs. Minnesota nearly pulled out that game at Detroit. Christian Ponder was benched after his fourth turnover, and Joe Webb took over the offense and the game. Webb’s not their answer at QB, but like last year’s game at Philly, he’s fun to watch in spurts. They get Adrian Peterson back this week, and he’s their best hope of hanging with the Saints. Minnesota is 2-11, but an insane 8 of those losses are by 7 points or less.

South
It looked like the Saints were going to lose their 4th road game of the season, but Jake Locker couldn’t get off a pass on the last play of the game, giving New Orleans their 10th win. After going up 22-10 with 4 minutes to play, the Saints looked to have wrapped it up. The defense choked though, giving up a 40 yard TD to Nate Washington on the third play of the series. So in just over a minute, the Titans were within a TD of winning the game. New Orleans went on to have two more offensive series but gained only 1 total first down. They’re going to have to close out a game on the road eventually (Green Bay) if they want to make it back to the Super Bowl. Atlanta overcame a 16 point halftime deficit to beat the Panthers on the road in another pretty underwhelming performance. Yes, they did outscore Carolina 24-0 over the last two quarters, but a good bit of credit has to go to Olindo Mare. After Mare missed a 36 yard FG, Julio Jones raced 75 yards for the put away TD. They’re likely to make the playoffs, but they’re probably the least threatening team in the pool. I still may not be sold on the person that is Cam Newton, but Cam Newton the player is having one hell of a year. He’s exceeded all expectations and is playing at a level that I never thought he could approach in year one. I did not think he was near this pro-ready, especially as a passer. I’m sick of the smile, but he’s saying and doing all the right things in Carolina and looks to be well on the road to professional success. What an embarrassment. The Bucs are absolutely awful. The players have quit, the team is clearly regressing, and not even the frugal Glazers can sell Morris as the Bucs head coach going forward. If that overpaid cheerleader is retained for next season, I will boycott any and everything Buccaneers until the situation is properly resolved. The cliché “youngry” shit has to go. Let’s get some players who can play and coaches who can coach. I was pissed when they hired Morris and allowed him to learn on the job. How’s that worked out? Learn a lot did ya? I’m predicting an 0-10 run to close the season, so obviously I don’t think the Bucs will win any of their remaining games.

West
Hiccup. The 49ers were unable to avoid the road letdown, losing to the improved Cardinals and John Skelton. The second year passer stepped in for an injured Kevin Kolb and ended the day with three TDs and nearly 300 yards passing. Alex Smith had a really ugly game, his second in three tries. Arizona sacked him 5 times, so you’ve got to like Pittsburgh’s chances of taking him down a time or two this coming Monday night. As I mentioned earlier, I think Pittsburgh is a bad matchup for San Francisco, and the Niners aren’t exactly heading into this one with the best momentum. Seattle handled the Rams in the league’s last game and cling onto their very faint playoff hopes. Marshawn Lynch eclipsed 100 yards for the 3rd straight game and looks to have earned himself quite a few dollars this coming offseason. Tarvaris Jackson doesn’t look nearly as bad as he did for the Vikings, but I’ve got to think Pete Carroll looks elsewhere for a QB this offseason. I still think that guy is Matt Flynn.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
Knock on wood, but a Rodgers injury is all that keeps them from 16-0, and that may not even do it.

2 – New Orleans (2)
They clinch the #2 see by winning out and getting on more 49er loss.

3 – Baltimore (3)
The #1 seed is three wins away.

4 – Pittsburgh (5)
Is there a more valuable player in the league (not named Aaron Rodgers) than Ben Roethlisberger?

5 – San Francisco (4)
Their next two games (PIT, SEA) will be playoff-like contests.

6 – New England (6)
Do they end the madness or become just another victim?

7 – Houston (7)
TJ Yates is playing for a #2 seed.

8 – Denver (8)
Given what’s been happening I can’t see these guys not winning the West.

OUT – None

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
It's almost Christmas, but these guys mailed it in before Thanksgiving.

2 – St. Louis (2)
They’re really bad in multiple spots.

3 – Tampa Bay (8)
Right now, this crapfest is no better than the 3rd worst team in pro football.

4 – Jacksonville (3)
Beating the Succaneers doesn’t earn you much.

5 – Cleveland (4)
Despite hanging with the Steelers and gimpy Ben, they’re a bad team.

6 – Minnesota (5)
Again, not as bad as the record but 2-11 is 2-11.

7 – Kansas City (7)
Barring a miracle they’ll be on this list again next week.

8 – Washington (6)
Because Rex Grossman is your quarterback.

OUT – None

This Week’s Predictions

Strongest wins (by more than 14)
Cowboys @ Bucs
Packers @ Chiefs

Double digit dominance (at least 10)
Saints @ Vikings
Titans @ Colts
Cardinals v. Browns
Texans v. Panthers

Just win baby
Falcons v. Jaguars
Giants v. Redskins
Bengals @ Rams
Lions @ Raiders
Patriots @ Broncos
Ravens @ Chargers
Bills v. Dolphins

Upsetville – Population: 3
Seahawks @ Bears
Jets @ Eagles
Steelers @ 49ers

Peyton Manning - Where Does He Play In 2012?

2011-12-11T00:11:00.000-05:00

One of the hottest NFL stories right now involves a guy who hasn’t played a down all year. In a radio interview earlier this week, Peyton Manning’s father, Archie, made a statement that he didn’t think either Peyton or projected #1 pick Andrew Luck wanted to be on the same team. Assumedly after getting a call from Colts management informing Archie that he’s not helping anyone (Peyton’s trade value) with statements like that, the eldest Manning quickly did a backpedal of sorts, complimenting Luck and saying he’s sure the two could co-exist just fine. Now that there’s a spotlight on the situation, one has to ask – Will both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck be Indianapolis Colts next year? Great question. Assuming the current Colts don’t develop any testicular fortitude in this last month of the season, not only will they have the first pick in the draft, they’ll have made it mathematically impossible to finish with a worse record. Let’s approach this one step at a time.

First, there’s the matter of Peyton’s contract. Per that contract, Manning is due a measly $28 million bonus four days prior to the start of the 2012 league year. Since the Colts can’t move Manning prior to the current bonus deadline, they’re likely to negotiate with his reps about moving that deadline back a week or two to allow them to get something in return for a guy who was considered by many to be the best QB in the league this time last year.

Back to Luck. If you’re the Colts, do you spend the first pick in the draft on what most “experts” believe is the best/safest QB prospect to enter the draft since possibly, yep, Peyton Manning? When you look at this team, there wasn’t a bigger weakness than the play under center. Curtis Painter was so awful that now Dan Orlovsky is the first stringer. If you’re the Colts, how can you NOT draft Andrew Luck given what you know about Luck and what little you know about Peyton’s future health and ability?

As bad as this year has been for Indy, they potentially be looking at a decent haul of picks for Peyton in addition to getting Luck at #1. Not a bad way to start 2012. Do you deal Peyton or hold on to him and possibly create your own Favre/Rodgers situation? I would look to deal Peyton for two reasons:

1 – You’ll be getting a guy who I mentioned before as very safe pick; someone who looks to be incredibly pro-ready; and

2 – You have no idea how Peyton is going to bounce back in 2012. Not to doubt the great Peyton Manning, but can he flip the switch and pick right up where he left off? Is he one blindside shot away from retirement?

So now that I’ve made those decisions, the last question to answer is – where do you send Peyton? Looking across the league, there are only a handful of teams that I think will be actively looking to upgrade the QB position this offseason. You can also expect the Colts to at least initially look outside the AFC which will limit their options even more.

Here are the 10 options as I see them:

Broncos
Yes, I realize the Timmy is now the greatest thing since the invention of the game of football itself, but one can’t assume the clock won’t strike midnight on this fairy tale at some point. One non-Tebow point that could squash speculation is the unlikely desire of John Elway, an iconic QB in his own right, to bring another icon into his backyard. I understand. Elway needs to do what’s best for the Broncos, and I’m not saying he won’t. But do you think he’d be terribly aggressive in bringing Peyton to Denver? I don’t.

Jets
Easily the biggest weakness on the Jets in my opinion, Mark Sanchez will single-handedly keep the Jets from winning a championship as long as he’s taking snaps as their QB. Rex Ryan has already been presented with the Peyton scenario and predictably voiced his support for Sanchez. Still, if/when supposition turns into serious possibility, opinions can/do change.

Dolphins
Matt Moore took over for an injured Chad Henne during the season, but Miami would rather neither one be their guy next year. Still, would they be a financial and organizational fit for Peyton? Very doubtful in my opinion.

Browns
See Miami. They’ve got Colt McCoy running the WCO right now, and while a player as talented as Peyton can make any team change their scheme, I just don’t see him as a financial and organization fit in Cleveland.

Jaguars
Jacksonville is already reportedly having discussions about ending the Blaine Gabbert experience as the rookie passer looks horribly overwhelmed and scared shitless as an NFL starter. A new owner would love to make a splash with an acquisition like this, but would Manning agree to the move? The Colts don’t need his permission to move him, but I’m sure Peyton could make life difficult for all parties involved if he’s not keen on his potential destination. Would you want to play for the Jags?

Chiefs
On the surface this doesn’t look like a terribly appealing option, but there’s some talent on this Kansas City team. Jamaal Charles figures to be back at the start of next year after inuring his ACL in the second game of this season, and Dwayne Bowe is probably the most underutilized receiver in the game. Throw in rookie Jonathan Baldwin who is getting better each week and third receiver Steve Breaston and this isn’t an awful offense to build around. The Chiefs know they need to improve upon Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, and Kyle Orton, and I believe the latter is most likely to be a Chief next year. The fact that they spent a waiver claim in Orton when they were pretty much out of the playoff chase tells me they have plans beyond this year for Orton. That said, do you put your blinders on to Manning just because you think Orton can play for you?

Redskins
This one makes quite a bit of sense at first glance. You’ve got Dan Synder, a man never afraid to reach for a headline or spend a dollar and a head coach in Mike Shanahan, a guy who’s been around the block a couple of times in the NFL. Oh, and their QBs suck. Shanahan believes he can find RBs behind the counter at Subway, but he’s very meticulous about his QBs. Manning and Shanahan would be a tremendous pairing in my opinion, and you know Washington is going to be in the forefront when these trade talks start picking up.

49ers
How can I include a 10-2 team, a team with the league’s second best record on a list of teams needing to upgrade at QB? Easy when that team’s starter is Alex Smith. Make no mistake, this has been a career year for the former Ute, but does Jim Harbaugh want to continue spending the early part of his 49er era managing his QB and offense through games on a weekly basis? You might say I’m being a bit hard on Smith, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence he finally looks like a professional since Harbaugh arrived on the scene. Give him a different coach and a different team, and Smith goes back to the pre-2011 version. If I’m Harbaugh, I’m salivating at the possibility of adding a Pro Bowl passer to a team that is already dominant at running the ball on offense and stopping the opposition from doing so on defense. A healthy Manning could make them an automatic division winner for the next five years given the circus that is the rest of the NFC West.

Seahawks
Despite the recent wave of wins, Pete Carroll will no doubt look to upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson this offseason. An easy association is USC’s Matt Barkley who surely will go pro after the season, but with the way Seattle is winning, they’ll need to trade up in the draft to get Barkley. I do expect the Seahawks to have a new QB under center next year, but I think Matt Flynn is going to be that guy. Aaron Rodgers’ backup will be starting for an NFL team next year, and with GM John Schneider’s history with Flynn and the Packers, I expect their focus to be on the much younger, much cheaper passer.

Cardinals
Yes they traded for Kevin Kolb less than a year ago, but how has that panned out for them? The deal may make a Manning move financially impossible, but putting Manning on the other end of the passes thrown in Larry Fitzgerald’s direction could increase their offensive output substantially. They’d be an extreme long shot in my opinion.

In the first round of cuts I’ll eliminate Denver, Miami, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. As I mentioned earlier, I think the Colts will try to get him out of the conference, and I can’t see Peyton having the slightest interest in joining any of those teams except possibly Denver.

Next I’ll eliminate the Seahawks for the Flynn factor and the Cardinals for Kolb’s contract.

That leaves the Jets, Chiefs, Redskins, and 49ers as the remaining candidates, and honestly, I’ll be shocked if he’s not starting for one of these four teams next season. He’d make the biggest impact on the Jets and 49ers, but, if healthy, he could make the Chiefs and Redskins playoff teams next year.

Of those four, I’d give KC the longest odds. In my opinion, they’d really have to surpass the competition in compensation, both to the Colts and Manning.

As great as I think that fit would be in San Francisco, I don’t see them winning a bidding war with the remaining teams.

So that means I’ve got it down to the Jets and Redskins. With what we know now about their anticipated cap situations, Washington currently looks to be the better fit. I expect them to exhaust all resources in their pursuit of Peyton. But will it be enough?

As much as Rex Ryan wants to put on the show that Mark Sanchez has a future as a winner in the NFL, he’s got to giggle at the thought of putting Peyton at the helm of his offense. Think this insistence on maintaining ‘ground and pound’ continues with Peyton as their QB? Earlier I mentioned Dwayne Bowe as the league’s most underutilized receiver. Finishing a close second is Santonio Holmes. Think Peyton could get some use out of him?

Decision time. For the 2012 season, I believe that Peyton Manning will be the starting QB for……..the New York Jets.

I know that I mentioned the Colts' anticipated desire to move Peyton out of the AFC, and it will be hard to out-offer the Redskins. They way I see this going down is that the Redskins and Jets make near identical offers to the Colts, and Peyton "forces the Colts' hand" in moving him to the Jets.

Can you imagine the storylines? Manning v. Brady at least twice a year. Peyton & Rex v. Tom & Bill? The suits at the NFL offices would be doing cartwheels over the press and money spewing out of that situation.

Whether or not he is a New York Jet in three months is yet to be determined, but I’ve got to think that given his situation, both financially and physically, and the anticipated availability of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning has thrown his last pass as an Indianapolis Colt.

Talbuc's Take - Week 13

2011-12-07T23:48:00.000-05:00

AFC

East
It wasn’t pretty, but I guess a win is a win. The Patriots nearly squandered a 21 point 4th quarter lead to the worst team in football, hanging on for a one score victory. Not sure what you can take away from this victory other than the fact that they close more like Papelbon than Rivera. The important thing is that they’re two games up on the Jets and own the tiebreaker with four left to play. This week is another “nothing to win” type games against the Redskins, but I want to see if they handle Washington any better than the Jets did. Speaking of the Jets, they beat the Skins behind three Shonn Greene scores, or one more than he totaled in his 11 previous games this year. This one was close until late, and while I expect them to win this week against the Chiefs, they could easily lose their last three (@PHI, v.NYG, @MIA). I still think they don’t make the playoffs. Miami stomped Oakland, giving them 4 wins in their last 5 games. It’s a shame they didn’t start churning out the Ws until halfway through the season. Tony Sparano just might have saved his job. Buffalo’s downward spiral continues. Their home loss to Tennessee was their 5th in a row, and they could easily make that a 9 game stretch to close out the year.

North
Yea! The Ravens didn’t do the post-big-game collapse this time, taking care of the bumbling Browns. Cam Cameron got with the program as Ray Rice carried the ball 29 times for a career high 204 yards. With the win, Baltimore still controls its own fate and will look to drop the Colts to 0-13 this week. For Cleveland, Colt McCoy continues to demonstrate that he could be a damn decent #2 QB. Pittsburgh had it clicking big time against the Bengals, dominating them 21-0 at one point and not allowing a second half score. Ben Roethlisberger had another two TDs, both to Mike Wallace, but Rashard Mendenhall pounded the goal line twice as well. The Steelers also blocked a Mike Nugent FG attempt and got an Antonio Brown punt return TD. Cincinnati needs to get back on track against Houston if they want to get that last playoff spot ahead of the Jets. They’re both sitting at 7-5, and I see Cincinnati has having the easier schedule the rest of the way. AJ Green might be the offensive rookie of the year if it were not for Cam Newton.

South
Who needs Matt Schaub when you’ve got TJ Yates? Maybe Gary Kubiak wasn’t spouting coach speak when he said that they were very pleased with Yates’ progress as a rookie and were fine with him as their #1. Sure Arian Foster had 31 carries on the day, but Yates was able to consistently command the offense without turning it over. Matt Ryan looked more like a rookie than Yates. It wasn’t all good as the Texans lost Andre Johnson again, this time with another hamstring injury. Will they run their win streak to seven without him at Cincinnati? Tennessee won at Buffalo, giving them back to back victories for the first time since in two months. Sure it was the fading Bills, but Chris Johnson made it a second straight studly game with 153 yards and 2 TDs. Will he run that streak to three against the Saints? Yep, the Jags are still bad, and Blaine Gabbert is so soft he makes Mark Sanchez look tough. Indy is now an 0-12 heaping pile of manure.

West
Don’t look now, but the most uncompetitively competitive division in the league just got a little tighter. Denver moved their streak to five at Minnesota behind an opportunistic defense and, brace yourselves, a passing QB. Timmy stroked the genie’s lamp at halftime again, connecting with Demaryius Thomas for two 3rd quarter scores and eclipsing the ever so elusive 200 yard passing mark for the first time this year. All the media attention goes to Timmy, but that defense and Willis McGahee (20-111-1) were the difference in this one. That and two late Matt Prater FGs. The momentum express continues as they get the reeling Bears at home this Sunday. Oakland faceplanted in Miami, fallilng behind 34-0 before getting two garbage 4th quarter scores to avoid the (deserved) shutout. Michael Bush (10 carries, 18 yards) had his worst game of the year, and Richard Seymour was kicked out of the contest for throwing a punch at a Dolphin. Bully. The biggest story might be the off field troubles Rolando McClain got himself into. You know your basic assault and weapons charges. San Diego found the cure to their 6 game losing streak in Jacksonville, but I’m not chasing that bandwagon yet. Yes, they’re getting healthy, but this is a 5-7 team that still has Baltimore and Detroit on the schedule and will have a tough time reaching .500 let alone the playoffs; and .500 ain’t cutting in this the West this year. Kansas City continues to live the Tyler Palko dream as Kyle Orton dislocated his finger on his one pass attempt as a Chief. Party on Kansas City!

NFC

East
Ok, does anyone want to win the NFC East? All four of them flopped last week, starting with Philadelphia’s enjoyable, now weekly, no show; this time in Seattle. Vince Young threw another 4 TDs, oops I mean disgustingly awful INTs, giving him 8 in 3 games. Way to go Vince! DeSean Jackson continues to show his ass and do very little football playing on the field. Write it down – whoever signs this guy is going to regret it. He’s exactly the kind of guy you don’t give a long term deal. He’s shown his softness and selfishness repeatedly and is a one trick pony, if that. I bet the end result in Philly is that Jackson and defensive coordinator Juan Castillo are out and Andy Reid and Michael Vick return. As for the rest of this year, they just need to try and not get embarrassed weekly. Dallas did the fade in Arizona, thanks in large part to the boneheadedness that was Jason Garrett’s decision to ice his own kicker, leading to an ensuing miss and eventual loss. Ok, so Garrett claimed to be trying to beat a delay of game, but I call “oops I screwed up” for 1000 Alex. They’ll take their one game lead into Sunday night’s game against the Gaints, a team that almost became THAT team in a thrilling loss to the milk country marvels. Instead of a historic victory, the Giants lost their 4th straight and will try to avoid falling two behind Dallas with three to play by beating them Sunday. In their defense, three of those four losses came to three of football’s best teams (GB, NO, SF). A tough call, but I might take the road team in this one, especially with Ahmad Bradshaw getting healthy. Washington got back into the loss column, dropping to 4-8 and doing nothing but chasing the Eagles for last place in the division.

North
Here you’ve got the good, the bad, and the ugly. After going back and forth with the Giants in the first half, the Packers were unable to pull away and needed a ho hum 58 second game winning drive from the robot that is Aaron Rodgers to keep their undefeated season alive. It wasn’t all good though. Rodgers threw an ugly INT that the Giants turned into a TD two plays later, Jermichael Finley continues to drop passes, and Charles Woodson suffered late in the game putting his status for this week in check. I don’t see how they don’t get to 12-0 against the Raiders. Anyone catch the time of death? It came with about 6 minutes left in the first quarter as Matt Forte went out with an MCL sprain. There’s no telling how long he’ll be out, and every week counts when you’re scratching and clawing for a wild card spot this late in the season with Caleb Hanie as your QB. Now for the ugly; make that disgustingly undisciplined. Brandon Pettigrew shoving an official. Titus Young pushing Malcolm Jenkins in the face when they were on the Saints’ doorstep. Stefan Logan throwing the ball at a Saints player like a dumbass. Someone teach Nate Burleson how to get separation without drawing a flag. Three offensive PIs??? If they can get their heads out of their asses, they should jump ahead of the Bears for a wild card spot. Minnesota suffered a crushing loss to the Broncos. Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin are establishing quite the chemistry, connecting for two huge TDs. Ponder has made some rookie throws, but I love how he’s working out there; big things ahead for him. Sure they’re a big disappointment at 2-10, but only 2 of those 10 losses were by more than 10 points. Matt Kalil would be a great pick in April to give them the best LT play they’ve had in years.

South
When the Lions weren’t shooting themselves in the foot, they were getting burnt by Drew Brees. Well on his way to breaking Dan Marino’s single season yardage record, the Saints’ slinger added another 342 to his season total. He threw 3 TDs, but the think that stands out most to me is that he’s gone three straight games without an INT. Now they head to Tennessee in a game that smells a bit like a trap. Of course they’re a better team at home, but I think they’ve learned their lesson with road letdowns (TB, STL). I think this one’s pretty simple at least strategy/success-wise – slow down Chris Johnson and the Saints win. While the Saints are running away with the division, the Falcons are another team doing the fade. After struggling to beat two mediocre teams (TEN, MIN), the Falcons fell on the road to a team with a QB named TJ. They don’t have that oomph this year; don’t seem to scare or even frighten anyone. I’d say 2-2 is a fair guesstimate the rest of the way (CAR, JAX, NO, TB), and that should be good enough to back into a wild card spot given what’s going on with the Bears, Giants, and Lions. Cam Newton set the rookie rushing TD record with three of them against the Succaneers who continue to find new ways to disappoint their fans. Awesome job by the Bucs letting Newton complete a desperate deep ball late in the first half to set up an Olindo Mare FG. Crap teams make crap plays.

West
After a draining loss at Baltimore the 49ers got back on track by shutting out the Rams 26-0. David Akers owned the first half with 3 FGs, but Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree took over in the second half. The no hangover effect resembles a veteran team that can refocus quickly which will come in very handy come playoff time. Patrick Willis went down with a hamstring injury, so his health will be worth monitoring as the postseason draws closer. Like the Saints, the Niners hit the road this week in a game that sniffs a bit of a looming loss, but I’m buying into their focus. Their recipe is simple and doesn’t require their QB to be on point every week. I don’t like Pete Carroll, but I like the effort the Seahawks have shown over the last month. Speaking of effort, Marshawn Lynch did it again. Somewhat reminiscent of last year’s mega highlight playoff run, Lynch ran through a wall of Eagle defenders and a Jamar Chaney arm tackle to score an impressive TD at set the tone early. He’s now scored in 8 straight games. Their schedule the rest of the way minus San Fran (STL, CHI, ARI) sets up for a run at a .500 record and a middle of the road draft pick. Pete will have to deal up in order to get Matt Barkley. Arizona is playing better ball of late as well, getting another run-off win, this time on the jukes and jives of LaRod Stephens-Howling. The Rams have pretty much locked up last place and will have only the Colts separating them from the top of the draft board.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
Scare survived. Now back home for 3 of their last 4.

2 – New Orleans (2)
133 points in their last 4 games. Don’t let me down with a road letdown.

3 – Baltimore (3)
The focus was their against the Browns. One week at a time, and the #1 seed is theirs.

4 – San Francisco (4)
I’m all in with these guys against any team in the NFC except the top two on this list. That said, I think they can hit the Saints with a surprise given the right situation.

5 – Pittsburgh (6)
Solid showing against a playoff caliber team. Can’t wait to see them against the Niners next week.

6 – New England (5)
Chinks in the armor. I really believe their lack of formidable tests late in the season will be their undoing come playoff time.

7 – Houston (NR)
TJ is OK. If they can win on the road at Cincinnati this Sunday, the could end the year on a 10-0 run.

8 – Denver (NR)
As the only team to go from one list to the other this season, the Broncos close out this week’s rankings. When finishing this list, I asked myself a simple question. Of the Broncos, Falcons, Cowboys, Jets, and Lions, who do I feel most confident in going out and getting a win right now? M-O-J-O!

OUT – Dallas (7), Oakland (8)

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
Now Archie’s trying to get Peyton out of town.
Draft pick – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)

2 – St. Louis (2)
The only light at the end of this tunnel is the final week 17 whistle. I like the pairing of Sam Bradford and Brandon Lloyd and think adding another weapon would go a long way.
Draft pick – Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)

3 – Jacksonville (3)
Wow, what a bad team being led by a QB wearing a kick me sign.
Draft pick – Quinton Coples (DE, UNC)

4 – Cleveland (4)
Colt McCoy hasn’t shown himself as the team’s future at QB. Will Mike Holmgren find his next QB out west?
Draft pick – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)

5 – Minnesota (6)
Forget the record, the product on the field has improved post-McNabb.
Draft pick – Matt Kalil (T, USC)

6 – Washington (NR)
The slide continues with the Patriots and Giants on deck.
Draft pick – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) – I’m being serious with this. I really think Shanahan would love to pair Richardson with Helu.

7 – Kansas City (7)
Their recent point totals – 3, 10, 3, 9, 10. 10 points won win them any of their remaining 4 games.
Draft pick – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)

8 – Tampa Bay (NR)
I tried to be nice with these guys, but they are certainly among the worst eight teams in the NFL at the moment. A 5-11 finish might be optimistic at this point and would give Morris an 18-30 record over three years. Do I really need to see another year of this?
Draft pick – Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)

This Week’s Predictions

Strongest wins (by more than 14)
Steelers v. Browns
Ravens v. Colts
Packers v. Raiders
Dolphins v. Eagles

Double digit dominance (at least 10)
Jets v. Chiefs
Patriots @ Redskins
49ers @ Cardinals
Seahawks v. Rams

Just win baby
Broncos v. Bears
Chargers v. Bills
Saints @ Titans
Lions v. Vikings
Jaguars v. Bucs

Upsetville – Population: 3
Texans @ Bengals
Panthers v. Falcons
Giants @ Cowboys

Talbuc's Take - Week 12

2011-11-30T23:25:00.000-05:00

AFC

East
In what turned out to be a third straight convincing win for the Patriots, Tom Brady threw for 361 yards and 3 TDs against the Eagles. Brady has a 8-0 TD-INT ratio over the stretch, and the Patriots own a fairly comfortable two game lead (and 2-0 season record) over the second place Jets. With the Colts on tap this week, look for a fourth straight shellacking as the Patriots inch towards the playoffs. The aforementioned Jets halted a two game skid by beating the floundering Bills on a Santonio Holmes TD in the 59th minute. They earned the win, but the Jets trailed longer than they led at home against a team that was on the wrong side of a combined 79-15 point total against Dallas and Miami the last two weeks. Mark Sanchez found the endzone 4 times, but he managed only 180 yards and was a disappointing 50% passer against the league’s third worst opposing passer completion percentage defense. Good chance their season road record moves to 1-5 this week against the Redskins. The Bills now sit under .500 for the first time this year, and are effectively out of the playoff chase. Stevie Johnson belongs in the NBA where individualism is celebrated and encouraged. His “humor” was certainly a factor in the loss. The Dolphins put forth a valiant Thanksgiving Day effort at Dallas but were unable to win their fourth straight game of the year. In a pretty exciting back and forth contest, Dan Bailey won the game for the Cowboys on a game ending chip shot FG. I like their chances of getting that fourth win this week at home against Oakland.

North
In possibly the week’s most physical contest, the Ravens won the battle of the Harbaughs, at least temporarily halting the 49ers’ great run. With their toughest remaining regular season game out of the way, the Ravens are in the driver’s seat the rest of the way as long as they don’t lay another egg coming off an emotional win as they’ve done thrice already this year. I’m guessing they show up in Cleveland this week. Pittsburgh survived a scare against the outmanned Chiefs, but in that game, the Steelers’ flaws were on display yet again. If a team has a passable pass rush and can play pretty decent coverage, the Steelers are going to have a hard time putting together scoring drives. Kansas City owned them for most of the night and was a late INT away from giving the Steelers an inexcusable loss. I smell another tough contest this week when they host the Bengals who survived a scare of their own last week against the Browns. Trailing most of the game, the Bengals again got a key big play from AJ Green. The rookie made a highlight worthy 51 yard catch that set up the game winning kick in a game that saw Cleveland, again, fail to close out a potential win. They figure to be playing for draft position the rest of the way with four of their remaining five games coming against the Ravens and Steelers. Enjoy!

South
Ok, I guess the Texans just aren’t meant to make a serious run. Fresh of the season ending Schaub injury, replacement Matt Leinart suffered a broken collarbone and will also be sidelined for the remainder of the year. Their game against the Jaguars could have ended even uglier if Marcedes Lewis could have hung onto a potential TD pass that I’m fairly confident Mrs. Talbuc could have caught at least 8 out of 10 times. Enter TJ Yates, a rookie from North Carolina. Jake Delhomme was signed to be his backup, so Yates figures to have a decent leash. Expect the run game to remain THE key on offense, but they’ll get quite the test this week as Falcons bring the league’s second ranked run defense to Houston with them. For Jacksonville, Blaine Gabbert continued to look overwhelmed and was eventually replaced by Luke McCown. Jack Del Rio has been fired, the team is being sold, but the GM has been retained and continues to back the rookie. Look for more of the same ineptitude the rest of the way, starting this week against San Diego in what should be quite the Monday Night yawner. As expected, Tennessee got a win against the Bucs, continuing their yo-yo season of alternating wins and losses. Chris Johnson destroyed the Bucs in his biggest game of the year, rushing for 190 yards, although he was unable to reach the endzone for an amazing 9th time this season. Wrapping up the South, it’s another week later, and the Colts still suck.

West
This one looks like it’s coming down to two teams – Oakland and Denver. Surprising, considering the Chiefs and Chargers finished 1-2 last year. Oakland rode what seemed like 15 Sebastian Janikowski field goals to victory over the Cutler-less Bears. Oakland’s defense held Matt Forte well in check and forced three turnovers from Caleb Hanie. Making another start for the injured Darren McFadden, Bush ran for only 69 yards, but he did find the endzone for the third straight week. While they’ve yet to win by more than 7 since week three, a win is a win. This week’s trip to Miami has the potential to be one of the week’s best games. It only took until there were 4 minutes left in the first half for Tim Tebow to complete his first pass of the game last week. Way to go Timmy! The Broncos have now won 4 straight with Tebow at the helm and have to be taken serious as a potential playoff team. Amazing accomplishment for a team starting the league’s worst passing QB, and that’s saying a lot in a league where Mark Sanchez has a job. The carnival heads to Minnesota this week. San Diego officially sucks having lost their 6th straight game and unfortunately get to occupy my television Monday night. The Chiefs stomached four Tyler Palko turnovers Sunday night and are no doubt trying to accelerate recently acquired Kyle Orton’s readiness for game action. They’re going nowhere with either QB, but Orton should be able to make defenses play a little more honestly on the back end.

NFC

East
The tale of the two team race carries over to the NFC as well where the Cowboys and Giants are the only two teams still playing competitively in the East. I hesitate to use that term with the Giants after witnessing Monday night’s but kicking which saw them fall for the third straight time. They had no answer for Drew Brees, permitting 363 passing yards and 4 TDs in what looked like a practice game for the Saints. They allowed another 205 yards on the ground and aren’t exactly heading into this week’s matchup against the lossless Packers with the best momentum. Dallas, on the other hand, has now won four straight and will look to avoid a road letdown in Arizona before hosting the staggering Giants. Miles Austin is likely to finally return this week, and it will be interesting to see how this impacts Laurent Robinson’s snap count. Robinson’s two scores against Miami gave him 7 TDs in his last 5 games, making him nearly impossible to bench. The Patriots were the most recent team to embarrass the Dream Team in a one sided whopping that saw the style-over-substance DeSean Jackson benched for dropping routine NFL passes and Philly fans chant for Andy Reid’s firing. Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were torched for 361 yards, 3 passing TDs, and didn’t defend a single pass, let alone intercept one. Huzzah! The irrelevant Redskins won out west in a game that saw Roy Helu tally his first 100 yard game as a pro.

North
The week’s first game saw the undefeated Packers roll into Detroit and roll over the Lions. Green Bay was up 24-0 before Detroit finally got on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers threw only two TDs, but he spread the ball around to 9 different receivers. James Starks reinjured himself early in the game and was limited to only 4 snaps. His status for the Giants game is currently up in the air. In addition to keeping Detroit off the scoreboard for most of the game, they picked Matthew Stafford three times and held Calvin Johnson to a meager 4 catches for 49 yards. From what I’m reading, some folks think this is the week the Packers lose. Not me. New York is in a bad place right now, and this isn’t the spot for Green Bay to slip up. A big reason for Detroit’s lack of success in the Thanksgiving game was losing the resurgent Kevin Smith early in the game with an ankle injury. His status for this week is uncertain, but they need a healthy Smith if they’re going to continue this run. I can’t not mention Ndamukong Suh’s ejection. That was a pretty horseshit move by a guy who is, unfortunately, becoming known more for his dirty than dominating play. I love the guy’s talents but have no tolerance for undisciplined, immature/thuggish acts. Get it together dude. Ok, so there’s an obvious gap from Jay Cutler to Caleb Hanie. Oakland’s offense wasn’t exactly torching the Bears defense, but Chicago couldn’t get anything going on the other side of the ball. As bad as he played, they still only lost by 5 on the road to a division leader. I think the Chiefs defense was a bit of a mirage Sunday night and that they won’t shut Chicago down on the road. The Vikings dropped to 2-9 but kept the game a lot closer than it should have been for not having Adrian Peterson. Christian Ponder found Percy Harvin for a beautiful deep TD on 4th and 13 to cut the deficit to 3 early in the 4th. Can the game’s best 2-9 football team beat Tebow’s Broncos?

South
Now that was a lopsided performance. Drew Brees and the Saints did pretty much whatever they wanted against the Giants, throwing for 363 yards and 4 TDs. Talk about a season to remember. Brees is up to 3,689 yards and has a 27-11 TD-INT ratio through 12 games. If Rodgers doesn’t win the MVP, I think it will be Brees. Jimmy Graham was his usual mismatch self, turning 2 of his 5 receptions into TDs. They spread it around in the backfield again, as Ingram, Thomas, and Sproles each rushed for over 54 yards as part of an impressive 205 total on the ground for the game. As with Green Bay, I don’t see this week as a letdown spot for the Saints. I think the Suh-less Lions will fall to the Saints. The Falcons are only a game behind the Saints in the standings, but it seems like there’s a mile-wide gap between the two when it comes to play on the field. Atlanta seems slower this year, unable to put anyone but Indy away. They don’t matchup well with teams who don’t have to run the ball to be successful, so lucky for them that Houston’s working with their 3rd QB this week. Atlanta needs to win a game like this if they want to be a serious contender in the playoffs. This is becoming quite the theme – another week, another Bucs loss. This time, they stumbled and fumbled their way to a defeat that saw them go the entire second half without an offensive score. The four fumble affair was fittingly finished when Freeman bumbled the snap on a 4th and 1 deep in Titans territory. Can they snap the streak against Carolina? Hell, I’d hope so. Carolina got their 3rd win last week against the Colts, but that one was a contest throughout. As a Bucs fan, I don’t like how they match up with Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and Steve Smith. Could be another long, disappointing afternoon.

West
For the first time in over two months, the 49ers increased the number in their loss column. In a game that played as well as it was advertised, San Francisco was, unsurprisingly, unable to keep up with Baltimore offensively. Alex Smith was held to under 150 yards, and the Niners, a true ground and pound team, managed just 74 total rushing yards. They held Ray Rice in check, which usually results in a win, but they were unable to turn Joe Flacco over at all and couldn’t flip the field on the Ravens. They’ll look to take out their frustrations on the Rams this week, a team who fell to a miserable 2-9 on the season. They put up a fight against the Cardinals, coming back from three unanswered third quarter scores to tie it up late. But yet again, they were unable to close the deal. Barring a huge letdown by Harbaugh’s Niners, this one’s going to get ugly Sunday. Arizona has won three of four, but they’re still a nonthreatening 4-7 on the year. John Skelton isn’t Kurt Warner, but three of their four wins have come with him under center. Patrick Peterson did it again, returning another long punt for a highlight worthy TD. If Von Miller isn’t the defensive ROY, Peterson will be. Seattle had a letdown against the Redskins, losing a 10 point fourth quarter lead to a middling Redskins team. Also lost in that contest was Sidney Rice for the season with an obviously serious concussion. Marshawn Lynch rushed for over 100 yards for the third time in four games, and doing so behind a beat up offensive line. Well done. Will they be the latest disgrace to Philly’s season? I say chances are damn good.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
Detroit didn’t even make them blink.

2 – New Orleans (2)
Destroying the Giants secured this spot for them.

3 – Baltimore (3)
A slightly more consistent offense is needed to get to #2 on this list.

Feeling pretty good about my top three; a trifecta I’ve had together all year. This next threesome could be sorted any possible way.

4 – San Francisco (5)
Despite the loss, they’re clearly a tough tough team.

5 – New England (6)
I’m still not a believer in that defense, but Brady is in one of his typical zones at the moment.

6 – Pittsburgh (4)
An offensive offensive line is causing this offense to stay stuck in neutral.

7 – Dallas (8)
You didn’t lose a possible letdown game against the Dolphins, now lather rinse repeat at Arizona.

8 – Oakland (NR)
I’ve got to get the Raiders on this list. Palmer is flinging it better than expected, and they’re winning without their best offensive player.

OUT – Detroit (7)

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
If you look up “suck” in the dictionary, there’s a picture of a hooker wearing a Colts jersey.

2 – St. Louis (2)
No excuses – bad team.

3 – Jacksonville (3)
New owner. New coach. Same shitty offense. Blaine Gabbert’s lack of cajones is the biggest story on that team in my opinion.

4 – Cleveland (4)
A near upset is still a loss.

5 – Carolina (5)
Might Tampa Bay be the cure for Cam’s ails?

6 – Minnesota (8)
A team that can run the ball and stop the run as well as they do has no business owning a 2-9 record.

7 – Kansas City (6)
Bah humbug, I’m calling that a fluke.

8 – San Diego (NR)
Your suckage finally bought you a well deserved spot on the shit list.

OUT – Washington (7)

This Week’s Predictions

Strongest wins (by more than 14)
Saints v. Lions
49ers v. Rams
Patriots v. Colts

Double digit dominance (at least 10)
Packers @ Giants

Just win baby
Bills v. Titans
Bears v. Chiefs
Jets @ Redskins
Falcons @ Texans
Vikings v. Broncos
Cowboys @ Cardinals

Upsetville – Getting Crowded
Seahawks v. Eagles
Raiders @ Dolphins
Bengals @ Steelers
Panthers @ Bucs
Jaguars v. Chargers

Talbuc's Take - Week 11

2011-11-22T23:22:00.000-05:00

AFC

East
It didn’t start like a game that was going to end up a 34-3 victory, but the Patriots left Kansas City with their second straight win and their 6th 30+ point game of the year. Rob Gronkowski has taken over as their unstoppable offensive weapon, catching his 19th and 20th career TDs and establishing himself as the quickest tight end to reach the 20 career TD mark. I love they way Belichick is recreating the Troy Brown WR/DB thing with Julian Edelman. That guy makes better tackles than a lot of full time NFL corners. Nice egg. The overrated Jets fell to 5-5 on the year and an unmacho 1-4 on the road with their loss at Denver. That’s two ugly performances in a row. Fortunately for the Jets, they get the fading Bills, Redskins, and Chiefs in the next three weeks. No excuse for not going 3-0 there. They won’t though, and reason #1 might be the play of one of the worst QBs in the league. Mark Sanchez is awful. He cannot lead an NFL offense and has trouble simply managing a winning situation. The Jets have no excuse for not pursuing an upgrade this offseason. Looking good Miami! They won their third in a row against the trifecta of teams due up on the Jets’ schedule. Again, no excuse for New York not going 3-0 there. Pretty encouraging that the Dolphins can win a game 35-8 and have Brandon Marshall register just 5 yards on 1 reception. The Dolphin defense surrendered just 41 yards on the ground to Buffalo, a week after holding Washington to 61. Their Thanksgiving matchup at Dallas should be a good one. If Buffalo is careful, they might not win another one the rest of the way. They’ve been outscored 83-15 the last two weeks and face a Jets team they’re unlikely to score a lot against.

North
It wasn’t the prettiest or most dominant performance, but the Ravens reclaimed first place in the division with a win over the depleted Bengals. Ray Rice was appropriately made the centerpiece of the offensive gameplan, garnering 25 total touches and gaining nearly 150 total yards. Huge contest coming up this Thursday night when John Harbaugh hosts his brother’s 49ers. This is the biggest game left on their regular season schedule in my opinion. After this one they have Cleveland twice bookending games against the Colts and Chargers. They cannot afford another slip up the rest of the way. Cincinnati did a great job of hanging in there despite not having possibly their two best players on both sides of the ball – AJ Green and Leon Hall. Andy Dalton had a chance to tie the game up inside the red zone, but the Ravens defense held up and snuffed out the rally. The Bengals get a breather against the Browns this week before facing the Steelers again for the second time in a month. They’ll need Green back for that one. Cleveland got their 4th win of the season, but #1 it was a against the Jags; and #2 they haven’t scored more than 17 points in their last 8 games. Awful. They get to take on the division over the next three weeks in what should be quite the gauntlet.

South
Of the division’s teams, Houston looked the best this week, and they didn’t even play. They’ll get to see what Matt Leinart has to offer as he takes over for Matt Schaub this week against the Jaguars. Speaking of the Jaguars, things are bad when the Texas duo of McCoy and Ogbonnaya beat you. The Jags allowed the latter to run for 115 yards and a score and will get absolutely owned by Arian Foster and Ben Tate if they bring that shoddy run defense with them Sunday. I saw Blaine Gabbert kind of wuss into a throw with pressure in his face. Jamie Mitchell was about lit him up, but Gabbert pulled back on the throw and missed an open receiver Jason Hill. It’s an isolated play but not one that shows a lot of growth. As expected, the terrible Titans showed up in Atlanta and got slapped around until Jake Locker came on for an injured Matt Hasselbeck and got a couple late, rallying scores. After a good week, Chris Johnson reverted back to what he’s been all year – a non-factor – with a pathetic 13 yards on 12 carries. Count that money CJ.

West
The Raiders got their second road win in a row with balanced victory against the Vikings. Carson Palmer threw 7 less passes than Michael Bush had carries in a gameplan the Raiders would like to repeat as often as possible. Bush continues to shine in McFadden’s absence and is earning himself more money when he hits the market with every passing week. The Raiders were a preseason surprise team of mine, and they look like the safest pick to win this division in my opinion the way things stand currently. They’ll get to host the Cutler-less Bears this week. Things are getting brutal in San Diego. They tasted defeat for the fifth straight game and now get to face Denver and Baby Jesus this week. Only Tebow can look like complete shit for three quarters and then run around the field sandlot style in the fourth to pull out a win and get people thinking he’s amazing. Congratulations, you’re a running mismatch. Now learn how to throw a football, and I’ll start considering him something other than a gimmick with a short shelf life. The Chiefs looked good for a half at New England, but the reality set in as they got a second half spanking. Tyler Palko started out solid but ended the day with three interceptions and no scores. That four game win streak is a distant memory now.

NFC

East
This division continues to be the most schizophrenic in the league. The Giants looked like a team on a mission the last month, but they were tossed around all night long by the Eagles in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the 17-10 score indicates. They couldn’t run the ball, couldn’t pass the ball, and could only muster one TD in a game that saw backup QB Vince Young throw 3 INTs. Ahmad Bradshaw is no sure thing to return this week in their matchup with the Saints, and if Vince Young looked capable against this defense, imagine what Drew Brees is going to do to them, especially that young group of linebackers. Philly hosts New England this week in a game that should feature a lot of points. Dallas was the latest team to beat up on the Redskins, but they needed OT to get the win. Laurent Robinson did it again, scoring his 5th TD in the last 4 weeks. They still have yet to play the Giants this year, so there’s a lot left to be decided here. I can’t project a winner of this mess, but Dallas has the easier schedule of the two the rest of the way. The Grossman-Gaffney Gator duo led the way for the Redskins, but you’re not going to win many games running for only 60 yards. They’ll try to snap that six game skid in Seattle Sunday.

North
Jordy Nelson is perfect for the Packers. The guy doesn’t drop anything and is always in sync with Aaron Rodgers. He led the team in receiving and has 16 receptions and 5 TDs over his last three games. If it’s possible, the pass game is likely to be even more of a focus with James Starks possibly out with an ankle injury suffered in the game against the Bucs. After a solid game against the Vikings, the Packers pass defense allowed a struggling Josh Freeman to throw for 342 yards and make the contest closer than it should have been. If they give Matthew Stafford and the Lions the same cushion, loss #1 might come Thanksgiving Thursday. After trailing by 17 in the 2nd quarter, the Lions ripped off five 2nd half TDs to take a convincing win. On the heels of a 1 TD, 4 INT game against the Bears, Stafford rebounded for 5 scores and 2 INTs against the Panthers. Kevin Smith exploded for 201 total yards, including 140 of them and 2 scores on the ground. Worth noting – Of Stafford’s 5 TDs, none of them went to Calvin Johnson. What a huge huge loss for the Bears. Yes, they became the most recent winner of the “who’s better than San Diego” challenge, but they may have lost Jay Cutler for the year with a broken right thumb. That’s a tremendous shot to the gut and one I believe will keep them from making the playoffs and from possibly being the team with the best chance of knocking off the Packers. This weeks’ game against the playoff-hopeful Raiders will show us what Caleb Hanie’s Bears are capable of. The Vikings experienced a loss of their own with their best player leaving the game against Oakland early with an ankle injury. Adrian Peterson is likely to miss this week’s matchup against the Falcons, but it doesn’t appear that this is anything that will sideline him for a lengthy period of time.

South
The Falcons got a much needed win against the Titans to get them within a game of the idle Saints, but they’ve got to be discouraged that they nearly let Jake Locker bring the Titans back from a 20 point 3rd quarter deficit. On a positive note, their 2nd ranked run defense absolutely shut down the opposition’s ground game again. The get a bit of an assist this week against the Vikings with Peterson likely out, but next week’s matchup at Houston will be a huge test of strength v. strength. What an amazing run by LeGarrette Blount; truly one of the best individual plays I’ve ever seen by a running back. That’s exactly what he’s capable of and another reason why the Bucs should have paired him with an explosive pass catching option. You pound a team with Blount and then throw a Kendall Hunter at them, and you’re looking at a great chance of another big play. Then you bring back Blount and the damage just builds upon itself. This preseason I stressed how this team will be hurt by a lack of speed, and I can’t say I’ve been proven wrong. They’ll try to avoid a fifth straight loss this week at the Titans. The key to this one will be how well the Bucs’ poor rush defense does against the team that was held to 41 yards on the ground last week by the Falcons. Cam and the Panthers are headed in the wrong direction. His 4 INTs capped a second straight poor performance, but fortunately the Colts step up to provide a remedy.

West
That’s eight in a row for this year’s surprise team. Is anyone surprised anymore at this point? They run the ball well (6th in the league) and stop the opposition from doing so even better (1st). Throw in Alex Smith playing the best ball of his career and not losing games for them, and this is a team that has brought it on a weekly basis this year. They’re obviously going to win the division, and with four more division games to go, they look to be dueling with the Saints for the conference’s #2 seed. Thursday night’s contest against the Ravens has potential game of the year written all over it. John Skelton was absolutely awful for Arizona, completing only 3 more passes to his receivers than he did to 49er defenders. Seattle won a second straight game and has a good chance at a third this week at home against Rex’s Redskins. These wins just mess up their draft position. Speaking of draft position, the Rams should have a really good one. They got spanked by Seattle at home and aren’t likely to win more than one of their last six (ARI, SF, SEA, CIN, PIT, SF).

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
10-0

2 – New Orleans (2)
I think they’re next two games are their toughest remaining two; expect them to hit the playoffs on a high note.

3 – Baltimore (3)
Haven’t lost to a team with a winning record this year, and have a chance to go on a huge run after this one (CLE, IND, SD, CLE, CIN).

4 – Pittsburgh (4)
They’ll pound Palko this week.

5 – San Francisco (5)
I like what this team is, but I can see each of the four teams above them having too much offense for them to handle in a playoff situation.

6 – New England (8)
They have the easiest remaining schedule but will have to get past the Eagles in Philly to stay on this list.

7 – Detroit (NR)
They get back in the rankings due to their impressive second half against Carolina and Cutler’s injury.

8 – Dallas (NR)
I think they’re the best team in the East at this point.

OUT – Chicago (6, no Cutler = shot), NY Giants (7)

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
Booooooo!

2 – St. Louis (3)
What a disappointing season this has been for a team that entered with high expectations.

3 – Jacksonville (4)
Losing to the Browns isn’t a way to get off this list.

4 – Cleveland (2)
That said, beating Jacksonville isn’t much of an accomplishment either.

5 – Carolina (6)
They’ll give the Rams some competition for the #2 spot if they ruin Indy’s perfect season.

6 – Kansas City (NR)
Matt Cassel isn’t Joe Montana, and Tyler Palko isn’t Matt Cassel. Bad things the rest of the way for this team.

7 – Washington (5)
Aside from Indy, Washington’s 6 straight losses is the worst current streak in the league.

8 – Minnesota (8)
A 2-8 team should probably be higher on this list, but they’ve only lost 2 games by more than 7 points.

OUT – Miami (7)

This Week’s Predictions

Strongest wins (by more than 14)
Steelers @ Chiefs

Double digit dominance (at least 10)
Bengals v. Browns
Panthers @ Colts
Seahawks v. Redskins

Just win baby
Ravens v. 49ers
Titans v. Bucs
Raiders v. Bears
Texans @ Jaguars
Packers @ Lions
Saints v. Giants
Falcons v. Vikings
Jets v. Bills
Rams v. Cardinals

Upsetville – Population 3
Dolphins @ Cowboys
Broncos @ Chargers
Eagles v. Patriots

Updated Playoff Predictions

NFC
1 – Green Bay
2 – San Francisco
3 – New Orleans
4 – Dallas
5 – Detroit
6 – Atlanta

Atlanta @ New Orleans – New Orleans
Detroit @ Dallas – Detroit

Detroit @ Green Bay – Green Bay
New Orleans @ San Francisco – New Orleans

New Orleans @ Green Bay – New Orleans

AFC
1 – Baltimore
2 – New England
3 – Oakland
4 – Houston
5 – Pittsburgh
6 – Cincinnati

Cincinnati @ Oakland – Cincinnati
Pittsburgh @ Houston – Pittsburgh

Cincinnati @ Baltimore – Baltimore
Pittsburgh @ New England – Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore – Baltimore

Super Bowl
Saints beat Ravens

Talbuc's Take - Week 10

2011-11-15T23:32:00.001-05:00

AFC East
Ok, so maybe the Patriots do have some life in them. Everything that Tom Brady did wrong in recent weeks, he corrected in a dominant outing against the Jets. He adjusted to pressure, scanned the field, and found the open man. Rob Gronkowski looks like an absolute beast in the secondary against overmatched defenders. Mark Sanchez on the other hand looked like the real Mark Sanchez – overmatched. The Jets are in trouble any time they get behind by multiple scores; virtually no chance to ride Sanchez’s arm for a meaningful stretch of action. Did the Bills lay an egg or what? In, by far, their worst showing of the year they got manhandled by the Cowboys. They’re fading at the wrong time and travel to Miami this week to face the upstart Dolphins, winners of two straight. Granted those two wins were against the Chiefs and Redskins, but this team, specifically Karlos Dansby and the defense, hasn’t quit on Tony Sparano. I don’t think Matt Moore is going to get much better than what we see from him now, but he’s doing the right thing by continuing to feed Brandon Marshall (20 targets in the last two games).

Up – Patriots, Dolphins
Down – Jets, Bills

AFC North
Yep, they did it again. The Ravens no-showed against a shitty team. I don’t know any way to explain it other than they can’t get back up after a big, emotional game. For the second time this year they lost the week following a win against the Steelers to teams they have no business losing to. Their shitshow against the Jags on MNF was a week after a significant victory against the Texans. David Reed fumbling two kickoffs and giving it to the Seahawks on his team’s doorstep obviously doesn’t help, but the way the Ravens fail to bounce back is troubling to say the least. The Steelers know how to bounce back. They won a much tougher game against the Bengals, scoring a late go-ahead TD and turning over the rookie Andy Dalton in typical championship team fashion. Antonio Brown now has 26 receptions in his last 4 games and is battling Mike Wallace to be Pittsburgh’s most consistent wideout. Cincinnati can’t afford to let this loss linger as they have the Ravens on deck this week. Rookie AJ Green left the game with a hyperextended knee which he suffered after making his one catch (at TD) in the game. He’s expected to play this week, and they’ll definitely need him against Baltimore. One guy they won’t have is Leon Hall who suffered an Achilles injury last week. Huge huge loss. Cleveland lost at home to the 1-7 Rams in a game that I would not call an upset.

Up – Steelers
Down – Browns

AFC South
Wowwie wow wow! Talk about some bad luck. As if losing Andre Johnson and Mario Williams for a significant stretch wasn’t enough, they’re now likely to be without QB Matt Schaub the rest of the year due to a reported Lisfranc injury suffered in their domination of the Bucs. Where do they go from here? Matt Leinart will get the ball when they come out of their bye, and you know the Jags defense (a unit I’ve underestimated this year) has to be licking their chops. Expect a ton of Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and Derrick Ward going forward. In what I thought was a pretty decent surprise, the Titans went to Carolina and spanked the Panthers 30-3 where there was a rare Chris Johnson showing. Johnson totaled 144 yards from scrimmage (130 on the ground) and a TD. No one has surrendered more rushing TDs than the Panthers this year, so maybe we shouldn’t get excited just yet. They’re 5-4 which means they’ll lose next week. The Jaguars beat the Colts in a pretty ugly display of football. Blaine Gabbert threw for 4 more yards than MJD rushed, but a win is a win right? Curtis Painter was mercifully benched for Dan Orlovsky and might have seen his last snap in the league.

Down – Colts

AFC West
This just in – The Chargers are not a good football team. I’m also becoming increasingly disappointed in Philip Rivers. Great QBs find a way to win football games regardless of the health of their teammates or, quite frankly, their own at times. The Chargers just lost for the fourth straight time and don’t resemble a playoff team in any phase of the game. A fifth straight loss looks inevitable as they take on the red hot Bears this week. I’ve mentioned before how Michael Bush might be the best backup back in the league, and he showed why in this one. He was flat out dominant, running over and through Charger defenders even though they knew he was getting the ball. Carson Palmer developing some chemistry with the explosive Denarius Moore, so keep an eye on him in the coming weeks. Congratulations Chiefs. You just lost to a team whose QB completed two, yes dos, passes in an entire four quarter NFL game. Matt Cassel suffered a hand injury that might end his season, so Tyler Palko gets the honor of running the offense for the time being and losing to the Patriots on the road next Monday. Timmy Timmy Timmy. Tebow didn’t complete his first pass of the game until there were less than 4 minutes to go in the third quarter. How is that even possible? If I’m a Bronco fan I’m not sure if I laugh or cry over what’s going on under center. I guess a win is a win, but really? 2 for 8 as a professional QB in a game that you start and finish? Thursday night’s game against the Jets should be a treat.

Up – Raiders
Down – Chargers, Chiefs

NFC East
In one of the week’s more exciting games, the first place Giants lost on a 4th and 2 at the Niners 10 yard line. Mario Manningham couldn’t hold onto a deep pass that would have been good for the go ahead score earlier in that drive. Otherwise, we might be talking about the 7-2 Giants as one of the league’s elite teams. I’m buying in. The Cowboys are the other NFC East team showing signs of giving a damn. Tony Romo was nearly flawless against the Bills missing on only 3 of his 26 pass attempts and throwing for three scores without a turnover. Dez Bryant led the way with 6 targets and scored once, but Laurent Robinson again had a fine showing, catching all 3 of his targets and turning two of them into TDs. They’ll need more of that with Miles Austin sidelined. Terrence Newman led the way defensively with two INTs including one returned for a score. Their schedule sets up nicely the next three weeks before what should be a huge home Sunday night matchup against the Giants. Damn Philly is bad, and Andy Reid is (or at least should be) in trouble. Their week started with DeSean Jackson being suspended for missing a team meeting and ended with yet another new season low in an inexcusable home loss to the Cardinals. Michael Vick reportedly injured/broke a couple of ribs in the game’s first series, but he still looks clueless out there. Their secondary is baffling. They continue to come up short in big situations and allowed 3 TDs to the unheralded John Skelton. That’s two home losses in a row with a daunting road game at the Giants on this week’s slate. Good luck. The Redskins went back to Rex Grossman at QB, but the results were the same – a fifth straight loss. Like everyone else of late, the Cowboys will likely have their way with them Sunday.

Up – Giants (yes, even with the L), Cowboys
Down – Eagles, Redskins

NFC North
Another week. Another victim. Again, Green Bay was able to do as it pleased offensively, eclipsing the 40 point mark for the fourth time this year. What was more impressive was that their defense finally showed up, holding Minnesota to only 7 points. Aaron Rodgers added 4 TDs to his stat sheet, two of them going to Jordy Nelson. That guy catches everything. Even Matt Flynn found the endzone in mop up duty as the Packers scored 45 points for the second week in a row. You’d have to go back to week 4 of the season against the Colts to add up the Bucs’ last 90 points. Why bring up the Bucs? They’re the next in line to lose to the Packers. Don’t look now, but here come the Chicago Bears. In a contest that was never contested, the Bears flat out dominated the Lions. They picked off Matthew Stafford four times including two pick sixes which happened on back to back possessions. Devin Hester added to his Canton resume with another punt return for a TD and nearly took a second one back as well. These guys are clicking in all phases of the game right now and should wipe the floor with an underperforming, uninspired Chargers team this week. Detroit hosts Carolina this week in a game that should allow them to get back on track while the Vikings have another tough test against the Raiders.

Up – Packers, Bears
Down – Lions

NFC South
In one of the week’s best games, the Saints beat the Falcons in the Georgia Dome following a controversial call in overtime. With the ball on their own 29, Mike Smith decided to go for it on 4th and 1, but Michael Turner got absolutely stuffed by the Saints. Four plays later John Kasay’s kicking the 26 yard game winner. That decision could come back to haunt Smith and the Falcons as they now sit at 5-4 and are unlikely to control their own destiny at any point the rest of the way. Fortunately, they have what looks like a fairly soft schedule (TEN, MIN, HOU-Schaub, CAR, JAX) before facing New Orleans again. The Saints on the other hand head into their bye on an upswing before hosting the Giants in what is likely to be their toughest game the rest of the regular season. They got Mark Ingram back this week, so he should be fairly fresh for the stretch run. Roman Harper is a beast on defense. He totaled 13 tackles and sacked Matt Ryan once, but he had a chance to end the game in regulation if he could have held onto a potential interception. Granted, I’m a cynical son of a bitch, but I’m done with this year’s Bucs after they were flat out embarrassed at home 37-9 by the Texans in a game that saw Jacoby Jones sprint 80 for a TD before most fans found their seats. They’ve been obviously overmatched in their last three contests, and it’s about to get really ugly in Wisconsin. Josh Freeman is a worse player this year, they don’t run the ball well, have no wide receiver that is capable of standing out as a consistent #1, and they’re among the league’s worst in nearly every defensive category. This team isn’t going anywhere with this staff as Raheem Morris can no longer continue laughing and talking his way through letdown after letdown. All that won’t matter if the Glazers don’t start giving a damn about fielding a serious product. If they want to continue taking the uncompetitive route, Morris and crew will be back again next year. Moving on. Once the Titans were able to take Steve Smith out of the game, Cam Newton and the Panthers offense really struggled. Newton failed to find the endzone for the first time this year, and he might make it a second if the Lions play with some heart after getting manhandled by the Bears.

Up – Saints
Down – Falcons, Bucs

NFC West
That’s seven in a row. Seven straight victories for an Alex Smith-led offense. I don’t know how he’s doing it, but Jim Harbaugh has got these 49ers playing at such a high level; sure to be higher after that huge win against the Giants. They haven’t overlooked an opponent yet this year, so I expect them to put a pretty good beating on the Cardinals this year before traveling to Baltimore in what might end up being the most hyped regular season game of the year. Brother vs. brother in a potential Super Bowl matchup. Speaking of the Cardinals, they were the latest team to expose Philly for the fraud they really are. John Skelton has won two straight starts, and Ken Whisenhunt isn’t guaranteeing that Kevin Kolb will get his job back as soon as he’s healthy. Larry Fitzgerald had his best game of the year (7-146-2) as the Cardinals torched the Eagles for 370 total yards. Again, I expect the 49ers to beat them this week,b ut if they can finish strong in games against the Rams, Cowboys, Browns, Bengals, and Seattle, this won’t be an entirely lost season. The Rams didn’t look any better this week, but they did get their second win of the season. They need to use the rest of this season to see what receivers are worth keeping. Brandon Lloyd isn’t going anywhere, but this is an opportunity for Austin Pettis to really carve out a steady role for himself. Seattle was the latest team to benefit from a Ravens flop. They did a great job defensively of taking away the vertical game, limiting Joe Flacco to the short and intermediate zones which really hurt the Ravens when they had to start pressing for points. Good news – Marshawn Lynch had his first back to back 100 yard rushing performance as a pro. Bad News – Sidney Rice had his head slammed pretty hard to the turf and may miss this week’s game against the Rams.

Up – 49ers

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)

1 – Green Bay (1)

The Bucs aren’t knocking them off this spot.

2 – New Orleans (3)

Look to be starting another mini-run here.

3 – Baltimore (2)

They way they flop to slop amazes me.

4 – Pittsburgh (4)

Speaking of runs, I think the Steelers are set to go on one (@KC, v.CIN, v.CLE).

5 – San Francisco (5)

They’re closer to #4 than #6. They’re becoming a very interesting team to follow.

6 – Chicago (NR)

Maybe I’m overdoing this one, but I get a really strong feeling that they’re about to put together a seriously strong stretch and move up this list.

7 – NY Giants (8)

Even with the loss they move up. Eli Manning has become a consistent offensive operator, and they’re a team that no longer relies on their defense to win games for them.

8 – New England (NR)

Maybe last week’s beatdown of the Jets was a tease, but with the defense making a few stops, their offense suddenly looked a lot better. Coincidence? Not!

OUT – Houston (6, no Schaub = no chance), Detroit (7)

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)

1 – Indianapolis (1)

Dan Orlovsky, come on down!

2 – Cleveland (5)

Becoming more and more unimpressed with every part of this team except its secondary. Tremendous chance they don’t win another game. I’d put money on it if I could.

3 – St. Louis (4)

They’re really not going to get any better (or healthier) this year.

4 – Jacksonville (3)

They’ll likely win this week, but losing Rashean Mathis for the year is a huge defensive subtraction.

5 – Washington (NR)

Their defense isn’t bad, but I’m not sure the Ravens or Steelers could win with that offense. They’re only going to get worse too.

6 – Carolina (NR)

Another new entry this week, Carolina quit scoring points last week but continued to surrender them at a near league-high rate.

7 – Miami (2)

That’s two in a row, and I wouldn’t put it past them beating the bumbling Bills to make it a third.

8 – Minnesota (NR)

A ton of talent, but that 2-7 record is hard to ignore.

OUT – Arizona (6), Denver (7), Seattle (8)

This Week’s Predictions

Strongest wins (by more than 14)

Packers over Bucs

Patriots over Chiefs

Bears over Chargers

Giants over Eagles

Double digit dominance (at least 10)

49ers over Cardinals

Cowboys over Redskins

Ravens over Bengals

Just win baby

Jets win at Broncos

Falcons beat Titans

Lions beat Panthers

Rams beat Seahawks

Upsetville – Population 3

Dolphins beat Bills

Raiders win at Vikings

Jaguars win at Browns

Talbuc's Take - Week 9

2011-11-09T22:31:00.000-05:00

Switching things up, I’m going to try doing this by conference rather than by game.

AFC East
Ok, it’s definitely time to worry about the Patriots. They lose what was basically a reenactment of their Super Bowl loss to the Giants with a deflating defeat to put them in a three way tie for first with the Bills and Jets. On defense they can’t get to the passer, and they don’t cover anyone for a significant amount of time. On offense Tom Brady isn’t getting any time to throw, he has no viable downfield threats, and no one is stepping up in the run game. They look like a fringe playoff team at this point. Their schedule isn’t terribly tough the rest of the way, but I think they drop to 5-4 with a loss to the Jets this Sunday night.

Streaky team the Jets are. Two wins – three losses – three wins. I’m still not terribly high on this team, and that’s mostly due to Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene. Santonio Holmes is completely wasted in this offense, and it’s hard to watch. Greene has put together a few decent games, but ground-and-pound’s lead rusher has only two TDs on the year.

Buffalo disappointed me losing to the Jets in a type of game – playoff caliber division opponent – they need to win. The offense couldn’t get anything together, and now they think they’re going to be without NT Kyle Williams the rest of the year. Not good. Can they maintain at least a tie for first with a win at Dallas this week?

They finally got their win, but the Dolphins are still the surefire 4th place team in this division. I think they get 1 maybe 2 (Redskins, Bills, Raiders) wins the rest of the way and are looking at a draft pick in the top 5 behind Indy. Matt Barkley? Landry Jones?

AFC North
Wow! What a showing by the Ravens in Pittsburgh this past Sunday. They were the better team for three quarters and looked to be giving it away in the fourth when Joe Flacco hooked up with Torrey Smith for the game winner. Listening for Flacco after the game, you could tell this one meant a hell of lot to him. I think I heard that the Ravens converted a ridiculous 14 third downs against the Steeler defense. Great job of playing through adversity and winning a huge road game.

I didn’t lose anything for the Steelers with that loss; just think that Baltimore is the better team this year. Pittsburgh could let this loss get to them and cause them to lose focus in a big division game against the Bengals Sunday. If they stay focused, this team could go on quite a run the rest of the way as San Francisco and Cincinnati are their only remaining opponents with (currently) winning records.

Way to go Cincinnati. I struggle to give this team a ton of credit, but I really love what I’m seeing on offense with Andy Dalton and AJ Green. Dalton had done a great job taking over the offense, and Green is already a legit NFL playmaker. They’ve won five straight, against mostly subpar competition, but five straight is five straight. I don’t think they make the playoffs (five remaining against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Houston), but Marvin Lewis (another coach I’ve been down on) deserves a lot of credit for getting these guys ready to play every week. Let’s see if he/they can keep it up the rest of the way as the schedule gets a lot tougher.

The biggest story in Cleveland right now is about a player who hasn’t done much of anything on the field this year. Peyton Hillis re-aggravated a hamstring injury and isn’t getting back out there any time soon. The schedule is kind the next two weeks (Rams and Jags), but five of their last six games are against the division.

AFC South
The cheese stands alone. Houston is clearly the class of this division and should clinch the title any week now. Arian Foster is rolling offensively, racking up this third straight game of 112 or more rushing yards. He also has 5 TDs in those games. Tampa Bay is next up for Foster, and they’ll be without Gerald McCoy in a game where any and all defensive line talent is needed.

Like I said last week, these Titans look destined for 8-8 or worse. They were bad against the Bengals at home, surrendering a 10 point halftime lead by being shutout in the second half. Chris Johnson finally had a decent game, and he’ll get to face a porous Panthers defense that gave up 162 all purpose yards to Adrian Peterson two weeks ago.

Jacksonville and Indy get to share this last spot. Indy’s awfulness is the only thing keeping the Jags from the basement of this division and possibly the entire AFC. The Jags were on a bye, so things didn’t get any worse for them last week. The same can’t be said for Indy who lost Dallas Clark for what looks like a long time with a knee injury. With the Dolphins winning and the Colts looking like they won’t do that until next year, Andrew Luck will probably be a Colt if he comes out after this season.

AFC West
If the South is the football equivalent of a Pinto, the West is a Chevette. Sure they’ve go the Colts and Jags, but at least the South has a team with a winning record. The Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders are all tied for first at 4-4, but they all have plenty of warts.

The Chargers lost to the defending champs in a game that saw Philip Rivers throw two pick sixes and nearly a third. They had a nice comeback against a shaky Packers pass defense but ended up with their third straight loss. If I’m projecting a winner I still think it’s the Chargers, but that’s more a knock against the other teams than a shot of confidence in San Diego.

The Chiefs respond to a thrilling MNF win with an absolute dud against the previously winless Dolphins. How do you win 4 straight and then get smoked 31-3 at home by an 0-7 team? Who knows what to expect this week against the Broncos.

The Raiders spent a hell of a lot to acquire a QB who has thrown 6 INTs in less than 6 quarters of football so far. Carson Palmer did throw for 332 yards and 3 scores, but the turnovers can’t continue. Another concern is that they allowed the Broncos to run for 199 yards, including a 60 yard score by Willis McGahee. They get a short turnaround this week against the Chargers in the year’s first Thursday night game. It looks like Darren McFadden will miss yet another contest, but Michael Bush, possibly the best backup in the business, has run for just under 100 yards in back-to-back weeks on just 36 total carries. I’ve got to think Palmer gets better, but maintaining a solid ground game is crucial.

The Broncos pulled out off a huge comeback against the Raiders, spearheaded by two second half Willis McGahee TDs. The old man ran for 163 yards (8.2 avg) or 39 more than Tebow accrued with his arm. They get the Chiefs next, but I’m extremely anxious to see Tebow against the Jets next Thursday.

NFC East
I admit I probably slight the Giants more than I should. They’re sitting at a pretty comfortable 6-2 in first place and are fresh off an impressive win at New England. I think this week’s trip to San Francisco is a tougher test and will prove to be an enjoyable game to watch. The one worry I have is Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot issue. They’re a much better team with him on the field. They’re probably the best team in the division, but their schedule is flat out brutal the rest of the way (@SF, v.PHI, @NO, v.GB, @DAL, v.WAS, @NYJ, v.DAL).

Dallas continued their seesaw season with a win over the nonthreatening Seahawks. I’ve got to think DeMarco Murray has assumed ownership of the starting tailback job with another 100+ yard game. He’s obviously their best running threat. They’re losing Miles Austin for at least a couple of weeks due to another hamstring injury, but I like how Laurent Robinson has stepped up the last two weeks. They’ll be counting on him even more now, especially if Dez Bryant keeps dropping footballs on his way to the endzone.

So much for that. After routing Dallas the previous week, the Eagles go out and get owned at home by Jay Cutler and the Bears. Their “dominant” defense gave up too many third down conversions, blew coverages, and committed stupid penalties. At the end of the night, they’re 3-5 and tied for last in the division. Michael Vick doesn’t look capable of winning games at this point. Think Philly regrets that contract yet? He’s erratic just doesn’t seem to have the confidence he showed last year. His 9 INTs already exceed his 6 from last year, and his QB rating is his lowest since Atlanta. Finishing .500 looks like a stretch at this point.

The Redskins continue their slide with a fourth straight loss, and I’m not convinced they keep Miami from getting their second win of the year this week. John Beck might not be a downgrade from Rex Grossman, but that doesn’t mean he should be starting in the NFL. This offense isn’t going very far with him at the helm, but Roy Helu’s 14 catches for 105 yards are worth noting.

NFC North
They just keep on keeping on. I don’t like how they let San Diego get right back into a game that should have been well in hand, but scoring 45 points on the road against the 4th ranked pass defense in the game is nothing to sneeze at. Green Bay’s pass defense on the other hand is second worst in the league to New England’s. If they lose a regular season game this year I think it’s going to be either at Detroit (week 12) or at home against the Bears (week 16).

Speaking of the Bears, that was quite the complete performance. The defense was on its game, especially Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and safeties Major Wright and Chris Conte. Matt Forte ran for over 5 yards a carry once again and is one of the game’s top offensive threats. He’s probably one of the three most truly valuable players in the league. The other bright spots were the play of Jay Cutler and the stellar blocking from his offensive line. Cutler has become the poster boy for sacks, but on MNF, the Eagles didn’t get to him once. Bravo Bears blockers. Cutler was comfortable in the pocket, consistently scanned the field, and kept the chains moving. That win should go a long way in helping their playoff chances.

Fresh off their bye, Detroit travels to Chicago where they’ll try to halt the Bears’ three game win streak. The last time the Bears lost was a month ago at Detroit. I think you’ll see a lot of Matt Forte running against this Lions defense and Matthew Stafford working the ball deep to Calvin Johnson. Detroit can separate themselves from Chicago quite a bit with a road win Sunday. They’d be two games up in the standings with a 2-0 record against the Bears this year.

Minnesota sat out last week as well, but they’ve got to be pleased with the direction they’re headed with Christian Ponder at QB. They’re facing the Packers for the second time in three games, so while this will likely end in defeat, I think they’re going to be a bit of a spoiler (Oakland, Atlanta, Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago) the rest of the way.

NFC South
New Orleans got back on track last week at home against the Bucs avenging that road loss from last month. The Saints were in control of this one throughout despite not getting a signature statistical ‘splosion from Drew Brees. Mark Ingram sat out another game, but Chris Ivory ran very well in his place. Pierre Thomas continues to produce when called upon, and Darren Sproles simply makes plays.

The Falcons became the latest team to victimize the Colts with a 31-7 snoozer of a win. Julio Jones caught only three passes, but he turned two of them into scores and totaled 131 yards receiving. I wouldn’t call him a disappointment, but Roddy White isn’t putting up near the numbers from last year. Aside from Jones, Tony Gonzalez is getting a lot of action as well, which is taking away from White’s targets. They host the first place Saints Sunday where a victory gets them a share of the top spot in the division.

The Bucs sit third in the South, and that’s likely where they’ll finish. Their brand of sloppy, inconsistent football isn’t a recipe for success, as has been well exhibited in their last two contests. They host the Texans this week in a game that I expect the Texans to control. As I mentioned earlier, Arian Foster is on a roll, and the Bucs are getting thin in the middle of that defensive line. The outside linebackers aren’t contributing, and the secondary play outside of Tanard Jackson and an occasional Ronde Barber spark is atrocious. After Houston it’s on the road to Green Bay. The Bucs could very well be riding a four game losing streak and a 4-6 record to Tennessee Thanksgiving Sunday.

Carolina’s 2-6, but only one of their losses was by more than 7 points. They’re losing, but they’re competitive. Reason #1 is Cam Newton who’s playing the QB position a hell of a lot better and a doing so a hell of a lot quicker than I thought he would. Steve Smith has to be the happiest player in the league with Newton revitalizing his career. And Smith was supposedly finished and on his way out of town. They’ll be Tennessee this week.

NFC West
This one’s about wrapped up already. The Niners are now 7-1 and are an overtime loss to Dallas from being a stunning 8-0. They’ve got the Giants coming to town this week, and while I’m a converted believer, they could really say something by beating another division leader. This one has game of the week potential. After this one, the only two tough games remaining on their schedule are the Ravens and Steelers. Way to go Jim Harbaugh!

The rest of this division gets lumped together. As surprised as I am in the 49ers impressive season, I might be more surprised that the Rams are 1-7. This has become a wasted season for Sam Bradford, and the Rams have to just hope he gets through this without any further injuries. The Seahawks have looked bad three weeks in a row and now have Baltimore coming into town. Make that four weeks in a row. Arizona won their second game of the year and did so with John Skelton at QB. How’s that Kolb trade look now? Hell of a game winning return by Patrick Peterson! Love that dude.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
Gotta love how they continue to roll through everyone even with the target on their backs.

2 – Baltimore (2)
HUGE win at Pittsburgh. Their two road flops from being an unbeaten 8-0.

3 – New Orleans (3)
Got a redemption win against the Bucs last week and have a tougher task this week in Atlanta.

4 – Pittsburgh (4)
Won’t penalize them for losing a tough game to a great team. I think they rebound against the Bengals.

5 – San Francisco (5)
Show me more!

6 – Houston (NR)
I think they’re good, but something is keeping me from going all in with them.

7 – Detroit (8)
The luster is wearing off a bit, but a win at Chicago could get me back on the bandwagon.

8 – NY Giants (NR)
Like the Niners, I’ve got to list these guys until they prove they don’t belong.

OUT – New England (6), Buffalo (7)

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
Luck Fever! Can you smell it Indianapolis?!

2 – Miami (2)
Dare to dream that they win two in a row?

3 – Jacksonville (4)
I think the Jags suck, and I still expect them to outclass Indy Sunday.

4 – St. Louis (6)
An awful season hits a new low if they lose to the Browns.

5 – Cleveland (8)
If not for having two more wins, I’d list them above the Rams. I’ll give it time. They’re a worse team.

6 – Arizona (3)
If only they had a few more Patrick Petersons.

7 – Denver (5)
I don’t think magic makes the trip this week. They’ll lose at KC.

8 – Seattle (7)
Things aren’t turning around for the Seahawks as quickly as Pete Carroll or anyone else in Seattle would like.

Talbuc's Take - Week 8

2011-11-03T12:46:00.000-04:00

Any Given Sunday
You want a text book example of how anything can happen in the NFL? Witness the winless Rams beating the Saints this past Sunday. The Saints headed into this matchup fresh off a 62-7 shellacking of the Colts. Those 62 points were more than the Rams had scored in their previous 6 games (56). Veteran Steven Jackson carried the offense, resembling the guy we knew from a couple years ago. What a craptastic letdown by the saints. Pierre Thomas led the way on the ground with 23 yards, and Drew Brees threw more INTs (2) than TDs (1). St. Louis definitely came out readier to play than they had for any other game this season and actually put together four quarters of solid play. Still, New Orleans has no business losing to this team and has shown another chink in their armor. I think they beat the Bucs at home this week, but if they don’t, it’s time to start worrying.

Rookie Showdown
Cam Newton put up the better numbers, but Christian Ponder got the win. Ponder did a great job of running the offense. He threw for one TD and didn’t turn the ball over. He’s also forcing defenses to be more honest than they were for McNabb which has, through no coincidence, helped Adrian Peterson put up his best 2 game stretch of the year so far. Newton continues to impress, throwing for 3 TDs and nearly 300 yards. His two blemishes were two lost fumbles which came up huge in a 3 point loss. Cam threw a beautiful back shoulder fade to Steve Smith on a TD that was overruled. Neither team is going to play a meaningful game in January, but they’ve got to love what they’ve seen from their rookie passers so far.

Don’t Mess With Trends
I think the number is 13-0. That’s Andy Reid’s record coming off a bye. So that’s what the Dream Team was supposed to be like huh? Michael Vick had a quietly impressive game completing 21 of 28 passes for 279 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs, but the star of the game was no doubt LeSean McCoy. The second year back trashed the previously dominant Cowboy rush defense for 185 yards and 2 scores on 30 carries. I’ve said it before that it’s McCoy, not Vick, who’s the most valuable player on this team, and games like this highlight that nicely. With the rest of the division being the definition of beatable, the Eagles can definitely still win this thing despite their 3-4 record.

Will the real Dallas Cowboys please stand up? A week after thrashing the Rams 34-7 at home, they get throttled by that same score by the Eagles. The Eagles jumping out to an early lead really took the ball out of DeMarco Murray’s hands, but how do you explain Dez Bryant not getting one single first half target combined with Miles Austin only getting 3 targets in the whole game? I think they beat Seattle this week, but would a Seahawk win really surprise anyone at this point?

CJ No Way
These Titans look destined for 8-8 or worse. They show up for big wins against the Ravens and Browns but look like garbage against the Steelers and Texans. Of their remaining schedule I think they’ll be lucky to get 4 more wins. When you’re looking for someone to blame, you don’t have to look any further than Chris Johnson and the offensive line. Javon Ringer has been the more productive back this season which is just nuts when you consider Johnson’s talent and accomplishments. With one 100 yard performance surrounded by 24, 53, 21, 51, 18, and 34, I’m not getting the feeling that he’s going to snap out of this any time soon. Did this guy screw a lot of guys out of millions of dollars or what? Think teams aren’t going to hand out even less of the rarely seen long term RB deals? Thanks CJ.

The Colts are horrendous and look to be in the driver’s seat for the Luck lottery.

Wow, That Was Close…
The Giants are one of the more frustrating teams in the league. They get spanked by the Seahawks a few weeks ago and trail the majority of this one to the Dolphins. They’re 5-2, but I don’t take them that seriously. Eli had a huge game (349 yds, 2 TDs), but do you want to count on him every week? Lots of respect for Tom Coughlin, but I still think this team misses the playoffs. Reggie Bush was right. The Dolphins suck. I think they’ve got a better chance of winning a game than do the Colts, but their place in the top 5 of this coming draft is secure.

...But Not As Close As This
Great teams win tough games, but this one shouldn’t have come to that. The Ravens had one hell of a second quarter. Flacco gets sacked and fumbles inside his 5 yard line leading to a Beanie Wells TD. On their next series, they run four plays and punt to Patrick Peterson who takes it 82 yards for another TD. Ravens trail 17-3. Can’t get any worse right? On the first play of the next series, Flacco throws an interception, giving Miami the ball on Baltimore’s 25. Four plays later, Early Doucet scores and gives Arizona a 24-3 lead. Bravo for eventually waking up and winning this one, but if the Ravens pull that against the Steelers this week, this one’s over by halftime.

Who’s In First?
Now this game made sense. After a hot start, the Redskins have begun to fade a bit. The Bills came into this one looking to continue their impressive season, and handed the Redskins a 23-0 shutout. Buffalo hadn’t done much in the sack column heading into this one, but they got to John Beck and eye-popping 10 times. Fred Jackson had 194 all purpose yards and continues to making a name for himself in the league. Love it. Washington hosts San Francisco this week and will likely suffer their fourth straight defeat. First place Buffalo has yet to lose back to back games this season, and we’re entering week 9. You’ve got to take them seriously. Love it. They host the Jets this Sunday, and you’ve got to think they’ll be dialed in. Prediction – the Bills will still be in first place this time next week.

Texans on Top
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Blaine Gabbert throws for under 100 yards and commits multiple turnovers, MJD has no room to run, and the Jags have trouble containing Arian Foster. The Colts might outsuck the Jags in the end, but Jacksonville’s offense is every bit as bad as Indy’s. Perfect in the division, I like Houston’s schedule the rest of the way and still think they finish in first. Indy and Jacksonville are awful, and the luster has worn off the Titans. I know they’d like to get Andre Johnson back asap, but it doesn’t look like they’re too optimistic about him playing this week.

Teblownout
Turns out all the Lions needed to get back on track was to line up across from Tim Tebow. After losing two tough games at home, the Lions headed to Mile High and stomped on the Broncos. Matthew Stafford had 3 TDs to three different receivers, and Calvin Johnson (6-125-1) was his usual dominant self. The real story in this one was how gawd awful Tebow played. He completed a pathetic 46% of his passes for a 4.4 yard average, fumbled thrice, and was sacked seven times. I don’t have much of an opinion on the Lions mocking his “Tebowing” pose, but it does make you think. Guys don’t openly mock other players in this league, but the Lions held nothing back against Tebow. One anonymous Lions defender was quoted as saying “Come on — that’s embarrassing. I mean, it’s a joke. We knew all week that if we brought any kind of defensive pressure, he couldn’t do anything. In the second half it got boring out there. We were like, ‘Come on — that’s your quarterback? Seriously?” He’s not long for the league with more performances like that.

Trick or Treat
It’s one of this week’s biggest stories – the Steelers flipped the script, went man coverage, and befuddled Tom Brady and the Patriots. Welker was held under 40 yards, and the Patriots ran for 43 total yards as a team in a game that wasn’t as close as the scoreboard indicates. Rashard Mendenhall had a productive 70 yards on 13 carries, but the story on offense was Ben Roethlisberger throwing 50 times for 365 yards, completing passes to 9 different receivers. Antonio Brown has stepped up big time as his number two receiver and has pumped life into a waning offense. I think the Patriots get back on track this week against the Giants, and the Steelers have the momentum they need heading into a big one against the Ravens. I still like Baltimore better as a team, but I’m not sure they leave Pittsburgh with a win Sunday night.

Gore Grounds Browns
Run the ball. Stop the run. If you can do both of those well, you’ll go far in this league. This year’s 49ers are that team. They dominated the Browns en route to their fifth straight win and are sitting at a surprising 6-1. No joke, they probably clinch the division with two more wins. Frank Gore looked great, running for 134 yards and a score. The most impressive thing is how unscathed he came out of a game where he toted the rock 31 times. Michael Crabtree finally got into the endzone and is fairly relevant after catching at least 5 passes for the third time in 4 games. Similarly to Buffalo last week, I think the 49ers will take it to the Redskins. 7-1 they’ll be. The Browns are quickly establishing themselves as one of the league’s worst teams. I think Colt McCoy’s days as an NFL starter are extremely limited. Cleveland has to look for a QB (Landry Jones or Matt Barkley) in the draft. McCoy’s a non-threat in the vertical game allowing defenses to stack the box regularly. He’s not awful, but he’s the NFL definition of limited.

Sucking in Seattle
I still don’t think the Bengals are all that good, despite the 5-2 record, but I like what I’m seeing between Andy Dalton and AJ Green. It’s only going to get better. You know you’re bad when you’re clearly the #2 QB on a team where Tarvaris Jackson is the #1. I think the Charlie Whitehurst experiment in Seattle is over, but it doesn’t matter who’s at QB with this team. They’re 2-5 and have Dallas, Baltimore, and St. Louis coming up on the schedule. I’m calling for 2-8 after that stretch.

Sad Diego
My intuitions were correct. The Chargers did lose as I proposed, but they only have themselves to blame. Philip Rivers threw an interception on KC’s 26, Ryan Mathews fumbled on KC’s 18, and in the worst of them all, Rivers fumbled with under a minute to go in the fourth when all they had to do was line up and kick a game winning chip shot. Antonio Gates also got hosed on a bs PI call on a TD catch. If the Chargers aren’t worrying yet, they will after Green Bay blows through town Sunday and leaves them at 4-4. Steve Breaston didn’t have the big game I predicted, but he did set up the game winning field goal in overtime. One a 3rd and 14 at the Chargers 47, Breaston went for 17 yards and kept the drive alive. Bravo to the Chiefs. After an 0-3 start, they’ve won four straight, including two on the road, and are making a run at back to back division titles. I was clearly wrong about them being one of the league’s worst teams, and they can shove it in a lot more folks’ faces this Sunday by beating the Dolphins.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
Their grip on the #1 spot got a lot firmer without even playing.

2 – Baltimore (4)
This is a timid number two. I’m not ready to put Pittsburgh above them, and New Orleans falls because they couldn’t complete the comeback Baltimore did.

3 – New Orleans (2)
I expect a bounce back at home against the Bucs, but a loss could be devastating.

4 – Pittsburgh (5)
Quietly creeping.

5 – San Francisco (NR)
Gotta start listing these guys until they fall on their faces.

6 – New England (4)
I’m seriously worried about this team. Their defense can’t stop anyone, and they lose if Brady has even the slightest off day.

7 – Buffalo (8)
Love it!

8 – Detroit (NR)
They win a toss up with the Texans by virtue of their Teblowout.

OUT – San Diego (7), Houston (6)

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
Of the three teams winless heading into last week, they put up (clearly) the weakest fight.\

2 – Miami (3)
If they can’t get a win in the next two weeks (KC, WAS), they’re flirting with 0-16.

3 – Arizona (6)
They play the Rams twice in the next four weeks with Philly and San Fran mixed in. Ouch!

4 – Jacksonville (4)
A sound 24-14 beating. Those are the Jags I know.

5 – Denver (7)
Can it get uglier?

6 – St. Louis (2)
Finally!

7 – Seattle (8)
They’re not one of the worst five teams in the league, but they’re safely in the bottom ten.

8 – Cleveland (NR)
I only see four winnable games on their schedule, and they’ll likely lose two of them.

OUT – Minnesota (5)
The Vikings look like an entirely different team just by making a change at QB. Go figure.

Talbuc's Take - Week 7

2011-10-26T22:44:00.000-04:00

Saints / Colts
Wow! What is there to say about this 62-7 embarrassment that hasn’t already been said? Drew Brees pretty much does whatever he wants to do with the football, and Sunday night’s snoozer against the Colts epitomized that. Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston. It’s unfair. The Colts? They’re pathetic.

Jaguars / Ravens
Speaking of pathetic, what a shitty showing by the Ravens offense. The Jacksonville Jaguars held you to 0 first half first downs. How do you not even accidently get one first half first down? The Ravens defense showed up, forcing a MJD fumble on seemingly every other carry, but they were upstaged by their Jaguar counterparts. I know this is the NFL and anyone can beat anyone, but that was absolutely ridiculous.

Falcons / Lions
Atlanta turned in a solid performance and looks to have avoided a major injury to Matt Ryan. They’re off this week and have a bye the following week in Indy. That’s two home losses in a row for the Lions. Stafford’s a little dinged up, and they’re heading to Denver, a place that’s never a cake walk for visitors.

Cowboys / Rams
Welcome to the NFL DeMarco Murray. Showing how easy it is to play in the NFL, Murray took his first carry of the game 91 yards for a the tone setting score. The rookie ended up with 253 yards on the day, breaking Emmitt Smith’s franchise single game rushing record. How Dez Bryant isn’t catching at least 8 passes for over 100 yards every game is beyond me. With his talent, he needs to see double digit targets weekly. I’m eager to see which Cowboys team shows up in Philly this Sunday night.

Packers / Vikings
Aaron Rodgers is unshakeable. You can’t watch him play without coming away impressed with the control he exerts over the offense and how smoothly he consistently leads his team down the field. I’m still waiting for James Starks to have that signature game where he really separates from Ryan Grant. It’s coming. Sure he got real familiar with Charles Woodson a couple of times, but you had to come away from that game impressed with Christian Ponder. They’re a substantially more threatening offense with him under center, and with teams now needing to respect the passing game beyond 15 yards, Adrian Peterson was able to do a lot more damage. See his 175 yards on 24 carries. Jared Allen continues to dominate. He now has 11.5 sacks in just 7 games.

Texans / Titans
I really didn’t see that ass kicking coming. Without their best weapon on both sides of the ball, the Texans went into Tennessee and laid a whooping on the Titans. Arian Foster totaled 234 yards from scrimmage on the day, smashing Chris Johnson’s pathetic 45 in a matchup of showcase backs. Matt Schaub was nearly flawless, and Matt Hasselbeck threw for a ridiculous 3.5 yards per attempt. Four Texans receivers tallied more yards than Tennessee’s top receiver. Houston looks to be back on track with three very winnable games ahead – v. JAX, v. CLE, and @ TB, while Tennessee is fading badly. How they play these next two weeks v. IND and v. CIN will say a lot about this team’s heart.

Jets / Chargers
There was a Shonn Greene sighting in this one. It was his first 100 yard game in over a year, so I’m not buying just yet. Sanchez again did just enough to not lose the game. After sitting out this week, the Jets will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a matchup to keep pace with New England. If the Chargers want to be taken seriously, they need to win games like this. Something tells me San Diego is going to lose at Kansas City on MNF. Philip Rivers doesn’t look right, but he says he’s not hurt. Stay tuned.

Bears / Bucs
The comeback was nice and all, but a narrow loss is a loss. Here’s some Buccaneer word association:

Josh Freeman = sloppy, indecisive
Kregg Lumpkin = ineffective
Adrian Clayborn = improving
Rush offense = non-existent
Rush defense = more non-existent
Jackson-less secondary = unskilled

Bucs primary needs – CB, WLB, RB, S, RT, C, LG

Panthers / Redskins
No one is happier about Cam Newton’s development than Steve Smith. The veteran receiver put up his fourth 140+ yard game in seven contests. That’s amazing. If Jonathan Stewart is ever allowed to be the primary ball carrier this offense would be even more dangerous. John Beck didn’t flop in his first start as a Redskin, but losing both Tim Hightower and Santana Moss to injuries won’t help his development. Both teams have what I call “show me” games this weekend. Carolina will try and post consecutive wins for the first time this season against the Vikings while the Skins will look to stay in the NFC East race by beating the Bills in Buffalo.

Chiefs / Raiders
It’s tough to win a game without a player of Darren McFadden’s caliber, especially when your QB situation is as ugly as Oakland’s. Kyle Boller was awful, and Carson Palmer was rusty as hell. They combined for 6 interceptions, and their combined QB rating doesn’t break 40. Unless Palmer finds some game, this team isn’t going anywhere. Jason Campbell may not have been this team’s best player, but his loss may have the biggest impact of any other player on the Raiders roster. The Chiefs scored on two short runs and two pick sixes, so don’t go getting cocky Matt Cassel. He wasn’t much better than Palmer. I’m predicting a big MNF game from Steve Breaston this week. He’ll be lining up against a rookie first time starter, Marcus Gilchrist.

Steelers / Cardinals
Banged up or not, the Steelers had no business leaving Arizona with a loss. Ben Roethlisberger made sure that didn’t happen, throwing for 361 yards and 3 TDs. That secondary still can’t stop anyone, but the Steelers can’t like the fact that Rashard Mendenhall was only 13 for 32 on the ground. The NFL has its share of elite athletes, but Mike Wallace is really a joy to watch. The man is scary fast and separates better than anyone in the game. Kevin Kolb isn’t getting any better, and the Cardinals are no closer to having a franchise passer than they were before the season started.

Seahawks / Browns
275 combined passing yards in this one. Where’s the beef? Browns win a snoozer of two teams headed nowhere fast this season. Mike Tirico referred to this one as a pillow fight on MNF.

Broncos / Dolphins
What was worse – Tim Tebow’s first 50+ minutes of action or the Dolphins’ collapse? Only Tebow can look like garbage all afternoon and pull a win out of his ass to look like a savior. Losing Willis McGahee for at least a couple of weeks won’t help things.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Packers (1)
Impressively plowing through this season just like they did last year’s playoffs.

2 – Saints (3)
If you weren’t paying attention to them before last Sunday, you are now.

3 – Patriots (4)
Strong, needed win against the Cowboys helps reassert them in the division.

4 – Ravens (2)
That’s two brutal, inexcusable losses for the Ravens this year. Championship teams don’t lose those games.

5 – Steelers (6)
They’re not interested in pity, just Ws.

6 – Texans (NR)
They’re focused even without Johnson and Williams and just won the first of a possible five game streak.

7 – Chargers (7)
This is probably too high for them, and if they stumble on MNF on the road against the Chiefs, you’re looking at likely three straight losses after a game against the Packers.

8 – Bills (8)
I expect the Bills to come out of their bye focused and win their next two games, both at home, against the Redskins and Jets.

OUT – Lions (5)

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
Uh, that was embarrassing.

2 – St. Louis (5)
I just can’t make excuses for them any more. They’re bad.

3 – Miami (3)
Of these three pathetic teams, the Dolphins make me laugh the most. They’re inept offensively and are just a soft team.

4 – Jacksonville (2)
Bravo Jags for showing up on MNF. Where has that been, and will we see it again?

5 – Minnesota (4)
If they keep Christian Ponder under center, they’ll be off this list before Thanksgiving.

6 – Arizona (NR)
Winless since the opener, they get a pissed off Ravens team this Sunday. Enjoy.

7 – Denver (7)
Do it again Baby Jesus! Do it again!

8 – Seahawks (NR)
Their win against the Giants was a fluke. This is a average team with a low ceiling.

OUT – Chiefs (6), Cleveland (8)

Best Performances
Drew Brees (NO) – 27/31, 310 yds, 4 TDs, 147.9 QB rating

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – 24/30, 335 yds, 3 TDs, 146.5 QB rating
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – 26/39, 361 yds, 3 TDs, 121.8 QB rating
Matt Schaub (HOU) – 18/23,. 296 yds, 2 TDs, 147.7 QB rating

Arian Foster (HOU) – 25 carries, 115 yds, 2 TDs, 5 catches, 119 yds, 1 TD
DeMarco Murray (DAL) – 25 carries, 253 yds, 1 TD
Adrian Peterson (MIN) – 24 carries, 175 yds, 1 TD
Matt Forte (CHI) – 25 carries, 145 yds, 1 TD, 2 catches, 38 yds

Greg Jennings (GB) – 7 catches, 147 yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith (CAR) – 7 catches, 143 yds
Calvin Johnson (DET) – 5 catches, 115 yds, 1 TD
Marques Colston (NO) – 7 catches, 98 yds, 2 TDs

James Anderson (CAR) – 12 total tackles, 1 sack, 1 FR
David Hawthorne (SEA) – 11 total tackles,1 sack, 1 INT
Brandon Flowers (KC) – 3 total tackles, 2 INTs, 1 TD
LaMarr Woodley (PIT) – 7 total tackles, 2 sacks

Worst Performances
Carson Palmer (OAK) – 8/21, 116 yds, 3 INTs, 17.3 QB rating
Kyle Boller (OAK) – 7/14, 61 yds, 3 INTs, 22.3 QB rating
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) – 14/30, 104 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 38.7 QB rating
Charlie Whitehurst (SEA) – 12/30, 97 yds, 0 TSs, 1 INT, 35.0 QB rating

Chris Johnson (TEN) – 10 carries, 18 yds, 6 catches, 27 yds
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) – 13 carries, 32 yds, 1 catch, 5 yds
Daniel Thomas (MIA) – 19 carries, 53 yds, 2 catches, 0 yds
Ryan Mathews (SD) – 13 carries, 39 yds, 4 catches, 26 yds

Dallas Clark (IND) – 0 catches, 0 targets
Miles Austin (DAL) – 2 catches, 16 yds
Vincent Jackson (SD) – 1 catch, 15 yds
Santonio Holmes (NYJ) – 2 catches, 24 yds
Nate Washington (TEN) – 1 catch, 10 yds

Talbuc's Take - Week 6

2011-10-19T22:51:00.000-04:00

I Can't Believe They Cancelled Charlie's Angels!!!!!

Really short version this week. I spent this past Sunday at the Bucs-Saints game, so my exposure to the rest of the league’s action was limited to tailgate tv, my iPhone, and evening highlights.

The Bucs were surprise winners in a game that was a lot more exciting than I expected it to be. Sean Payton broke his tibia and tore his MCL early in the game, and I definitely think that had a huge impact on how the game played out. Even on the in stadium replay, we couldn’t see who the coach was that got hurt when it happened and didn’t know until the game was over that it was indeed Payton.

I spent a bit of time focusing on Freeman – how he read the defense at the line, how he went through his progressions, and how/when he made decisions. Too many sideline passes are grossly overthrown. On the vertical (especially the crossing stuff) routes, his passes are this lollipop toss shit. His decision-reaction skills were awful at times, and he left a lot of opportunities on the field. It wasn’t all bad (nice hook up with Benn), but it definitely wasn’t his best performance. Nice to be able to beat a team of New Orleans’ caliber without having your A game.

Ronde Barber is so ineffective as a boundary corner. Teams look to feast on him every time he lines up out wide. He got torched not only on Colston’s TD but on the play before the TD as well. They want to keep him on the field, so we’re basically in nickel most of the time. He can definitely make plays around the tackles, but he’s really limited to that.

Tanard Jackson is a welcomed re-addition. He’s definitely not all the way back, but it’s good to see his athleticism back on the field.

Earnest Graham is the man. His better years are well in the past, but the man ran for over 100 yards and picked up some critical first downs against the Saints. The Bucs don’t win this game without his performance.

I won’t get into detail on hearsay, but I heard some good things about Clayborn and Foster but really disappointing/discouraging things about Raheem, Freeman, and McCoy. If what I was told is even partially true, it’s safe to say the level of commitment is not consistent across the team.

A 4-2 start is the opposite of the 2-4 start I was anticipating before the season. On paper, the record is promising, but what stands out to me is that the Bucs biggest win was a 7 point victory over the hapless Colts. I don’t think this is the kind of team that can continue winning close contests, so everyone needs to step their game up. We’ll see how the Bucs respond this week against the Bears team that showed quite a bit of life against the Suckasota Vikings.

Other Notes
Getcha some Jim Schwartz! I loved seeing that fire from the coach after the game. I heard a bit about what reportedly was at the root of the issue (for one, Schwartz’s preseason comments to Harbaugh about him not having a chance to win this year). This game needs some new rivalries, and I love this one. These two teams have a chance of hooking up again in the postseason, so stay tuned.

Losing Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone was a huge blow to the Raiders playoff chances, so they responded by going all in with a Carson Palmer trade. He has familiarity with Hue Jackson, and it looks like he’ll be the starter this Sunday against the Chiefs. I’ll definitely try to see as much of that game as possible.

Finally! McNabb was mcbenched for Ponder in the game against the Bears, and Leslie Frazier made the move permanent this week, saying Ponder is now the starter. More on Ponder when he actually plays some meaningful snaps, but I truly think this is the end for McNabb. He was never an accurate passer or a great decision maker, but his mobility has vanished as has most of the zip on his passes. It blew my mind when they signed him; knew it wouldn’t work. Less than halfway through the season, the experiment is over. Can you say – waste of a season?

Tebow time! I think he wins this week in Miami; just sets up well from a homecoming perspective. Baby Jesus always has a horseshoe up his ass too, so I have a hard time seeing this fairy tale not coming true.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Packers (1)
The machine moves on. Welcome to the league Christian Ponder!

2 – Ravens (2)
Is Blaine Gabbert going to beat these guys? Monday Night Football could get awfully ugly.

3 – Saints (3)
This past week’s loss wasn’t a fluke, but I don’t think it’s indicative of who this team truly is. After three straight road games, I think the Saints spank the Colts in the Superdome.

4 – Patriots (4)
I’m still on sold on that defense, and something tells me they’re due for a slip up. They’re off this week and return with three tough ones - @ PIT, v. NYG, @ NYJ.

5 – Lions (5)
When I look back in a month, this might be too high for these guys, but there’s no reason why they can’t win their next four games – v. ATL, @ DEN, @ CHI, v. CAR.

6 – Steelers (6)
They’ve got to beat Arizona this week with New England and Baltimore looming. A slip up this week could be catastrophic. Look for another week of focus on the ground game with Mendenhall.

7 – Chargers (7)
I expect them to beat the Jets fairly soundly this week, but they’re still not a top tier team.

8 – Bills (8)
They have this week to heal up a bit but will need to come out of the bye firing on all cylinders to stay in the playoff hunt.

Worst Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Indianapolis (1)
Will be 0-7 after losing on Sunday Night Football to the Saints.

2 – Jacksonville (2)
They’ll get spanked too this week and are really 1a rather than 2.

3 – Miami (3)
The effort on this team drops every week. A loss to Tebow’s Broncos might just be Sparano’s fade to black moment.

4 – Minnesota (4)
Benching McNabb was a start. Putting together a complete game would be step 2.

5 – St. Louis (5)
Sam Bradford is now dealing with an ankle injury. How much worse will things get for the Rams?

6 – Kansas City (6)
The winning streak stops in Oakland.

7 – Denver (7)
If starting Tebow was a step forward, dealing Brandon Lloyd was four steps backwards.

8 – Cleveland (8)
Peyton Hillis is now dealing with a hamstring injury. Greg Little is about the only thing to be excited about offensively.

Talbuc's Take - Week 5

2011-10-12T22:59:00.000-04:00

Overwhelmed…Outmuscled…Overmatched

Do you believe yet? The Lions defense flat out destroyed the Bears offensive line in a game that was a lot closer on the scoreboard than the play on the field resembled. To beat these guys you’ve got to get an A game from every one of your offensive linemen. I don’t care if he’s got constant double coverage, but you’ve got to go Calvin Johnson’s way at least once in every series. The guy is arguably the most dangerous weapon in the game, and he only got 6 targets. Inexcusable. Jahvid Best busted loose for 163 yards on the ground including a huge 88 yard jaunt that effectively sealed the game for the home team.

The Bears have 99 problems, but Jay Cutler ain’t one. As much shit as this guy takes, he didn’t shrink one bit under the incessant Lions pressure. His line blows, and he rarely has more than two seconds to go through his reads. Matt Forte is the most important player on this team, and he added another 151 all purpose yards. Unfortunately, aside from some trickeration with Devin Hester, this guy is all Cutler has on offense. Julius Peppers sustained a knee injury during the game, and although he was able return to action, that’s a situation that warrants monitoring. Don’t be shocked if they lose to the Vikings this week at home, even with McNabb under center for the Vikings.

Vikings / Cardinals
The Vikings finally broke into the win column this year with a (first quarter) pounding of the Cardinals. Adrian Peterson was dominant running for three first quarter TDs, something that hasn’t been done in 12 years. Even in victory, McNabb is unimpressive. Sure he avoided turnovers for a change, but a 10/21 performance against the Cardinals secondary isn’t anything to thump your chest about. Jared Allen is still getting it done on defense. His 2 sacks on Sunday gave him 8.5 on the year.

Kevin Kolb was worse than McNabb, completing half of his passes, throwing 2 TDs, and putting up a 46.9 QB rating. With Beanie Wells unable to get going and rendered pretty useless with the Cardinals down 28-0 after the first quarter. You can’t tell by how they’re playing, but I still think the Eagles got the best of the Kolb deal.

Bengals / Jaguars
The Bengals are the worst 3-2 team in the league, but that means squat. They’re 3-2. AJ Green keep building his resume, catching another TD and adding a couple of other impressive catches. Andy Dalton is doing a great job of managing that offense.

The Jags suck. Their execution the last play of the game says it all. Look away. There’s nothing to see here.

S#*%^y in Philadelphia
As I mentioned in my preseason preview, Fred Jackson is an incredibly underrated player. His fantastic start to the season will end that though. He finished just shy of 200 total yards against the Eagles “defense” and is making a case for the league’s offensive player of the year award. The Bills are a win against the Giants away from going into their bye an amazing 4-1.

Laughable…Unbelievable…Pathetic. Those three words pretty much sum up the Eagles so far. Michael Vick looks like a deer in headlights out there, missing wide open receivers and throwing horrible passes that you don’t see even in high school ball. It’s only a matter of time before he’s knocked senseless and sidelined for a few weeks. They can’t stop anyone on defense and have surrendered 119 points over the last 4 weeks. They’ll lose to the Redskins this week.

Seahawks / Giants
What an effort by the Seahawks. For a team not being given much of a chance be competitive, to come back against the Giants with their backup QB is impressive. Marshawn Lynch looked like an NFL rusher, and Doug Baldwin is quietly becoming a reliable receiver. Brandon Browner made the play of the game, picking off Eli Manning and running it back 94 yards for the clinching score. Seattle has to be moderately pleased about heading into their bye with 2 wins. Aside from the shutout in Pittsburgh, they’ve been competitive in every game so far.

Victor Cruz is ridiculous. He showed great concentration on that tipped catch around two defenders that he ended up taking in for a score. Hakeem Nicks is clearly their #1 receiver, but Cruz is the dynamic downfield threat this offense needs. Eli deserved a better fate, throwing for 420 yards and three (nearly 4) TDs. Six sacks look nice in the boxscore, but I’m not sure how you let a Jackson/Whitehurst led offense light you up for 27 points. If they play like that again this week, Buffalo will stomp them.

Chiefs / Colts
This certainly wasn’t the snorefest I was expecting. Congrats to the Chiefs for erasing a 17 point late third quarter deficit to beat the Colts on the road. Matt Cassel was competent for a change, only missing on 8 of his 29 pass attempts and tossing 4 TDs. Dwayne Bowe was a beast, showing just how much damage he can do when given the ball. Without Jamaal Charles the Chiefs have to get the ball into Bowe’s hands as often as possible.

Curtis Painter played better in his second start than he did in his first, throwing for 2 scores and 0 INTs. Again Pierre Garcon was his primary target, and if Garcon can stop dropping routine passes, he’s going to have a big year. The Colts aren’t a great run team, but losing Joseph Addai, Mr. Consistent in the backfield, won’t help Painter. Pat Angerer was all over the place again totaling 15 tackles. Indy should have won this game, and if they don’t beat the Bengals this Sunday, they won’t see win #1 for quite a while (@ Saints, @ Titans, v. Falcons).

I Like Where This Is Going
What a great game. The Saints couldn’t shake the Panthers and needed a late TD along with a defensive stand to hold off the Panthers. Drew Brees continues to put up video game numbers at QB, completing 32 of 45 passes for 359 yards and 2 TDs. Aaron Rodgers is the only QB in the league I’d take over Brees. He’s now thrown a TD pass in 32 straight games. Jimmy Graham continues to be Brees’ best weapon, putting up another 100 yards receiving game and converting big plays for their offense. He’s going to be special.

Cam Newton didn’t have his best game as a pro, but he almost came up with his best victory. I’m impressed with how quickly he’s adapted to the pros; doesn’t look overwhelmed like I was certain he’d be. Now he just needs to get some Ws. Look for them to keep it close and may be get a win at Atlanta this Sunday. The Bucs have 3 wins to Carolina’s 1, but the Panthers are clearly the more competitive, better prepared team in my opinion. If Cam keeps developing at this rate, the Bucs are going to get a quite a test in weeks 13 and 16, and right now I’d give Carolina the edge.

49ers / Bucs
Ok Niners, you’re halfway there. I said beat the Bucs and Lions, and I’d believe. Completing the second half of this equation won’t be nearly as easy as the first turned out to be. Alex Smith will never be flashy, but he was at his efficiency peak Sunday, completing 11 of 19 passes, throwing 3 TDs, and posting a 127.2 passer rating. Frank Gore looked like his old self rushing for 125 yards on a 6.3 average per carry.

The Bucs get the 3 Ps in this one – Piss Poor Pathetic. Josh Freeman was awful, the defense couldn’t stop Florida’s offense (bazinga!), and they couldn’t establish anything on the ground. You’re not going to win many games that way, and they won’t win this week in their return home to host the Saints. Brees is going to pick these schleps apart. I’m not going to waste any more time talking about a team that didn’t bother to show up.

Chargers / Broncos
San Diego moved to 4-1 on the year by winning this game, but I’m still not overwhelmingly impressed by what I’m seeing from this team. The four teams they’ve beaten (KC, Miami, Minnesota, Denver) have a combined four wins, and they’re largest margin of victory is only 10 points. They’re one of the league’s worst red zone teams, scoring TDs only 41% of the time, and the rate is worse (33%) during their last three games. I’m still not big on the Jets, but this should be the Chargers toughest game aside from their loss to the Patriots.

For the love of all that is holy, Tim Tebow has been named the starting QB for the Denver Broncos. After another abysmal performance from Kyle Orton, John Fox had no choice but to give in to the public’s relentless Tebow chants and make a change under center. Will the Broncos suddenly start winning games? Nope, but like Tebow or not, Broncos games just got a little more interesting. Willis McGahee hasn’t been getting a ton of talk, but this marked his second straight 100+ yard game and third on the season in just five chances. He’s the clear #1 back in this offense, and I’m impressed with how he took ownership of that job.

Just Win Baby!
I haven’t rooted for the Raiders since Bo Jackson was in the backfield, but I really like this team. Unlike recent Raider teams, these guys have been competitive week in and week out and should be very excited about their future. It says a lot when you can win a big game on the road when you only get 41 rushing yards from Darren McFadden. Got leg? Sebastian Janikowski continues to be the best kicking weapon in the game. All he did was add FGs of 54, 55, 50, and 42 yards. RIP Al Davis.

A couple of red flags for the Texans – Matt Schaub got really banged up in this game and gets to face the ravenous Ravens this Sunday. How do you throw for 416 yards and have a QB rating of only 72? Defensively, the Texans lost Mario Williams for the foreseeable future with a pectoral injury. That’s a huge loss. These next two games - @ Baltimore and @ Tennessee – should be great indicators of their readiness to move to the next level.

Steelers / Titans
Don’t count them out just yet. The Steelers pretty much stomped the Titans. After allowing a first quarter FG, Pittsburgh ripped off four consecutive TDs and put Tennessee in their rear view. Ben Roethlisberger, gimpy foot and all, heaved 5 TDs in a huge performance that helped Pittsburgh match the Titans at 3-2 and send a message that they’re still among the league’s elite. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer filled in nicely for an injured Rashard Mendenhall, totaling 156 rushing yards between the two of them. This Sunday’s game against the Jags could get ugly in a hurry.

Losing to the Steelers on the road is nothing to be ashamed of, but the Titans lack of competitiveness for most of the game was disappointing. They were unable to get any pressure on Roethlisberger and generated only one turnover on the day; an interception just before the half that resulted in no points. They need to put this loss behind them immediately, use their bye week to get refocused, and come out strong and ready to face the division rival Texans at home in week 7.

Patriots / Jets
There was grounding and pounding going on alright, but the Patriots were the ones dishing it out. Just as the Stevan Ridley hype train got rolling, BenJarvus Green-Ellis reminded us he played for the Patriots too, posting his biggest game of the year by far. He ran for 136 yards, scored twice, and outgained the Jets as a team on the ground by almost 40 yards. Wes Welker continues to be a machine, eclipsing 100 yards receiving for the fourth time in five games this year. Not that he needs any help, but Aaron Hernandez getting back to full health will only help Welker’s ability to get open.

You could see it on Rex Ryan’s face in the postgame conference. His team isn’t as talented as he’d like everyone (including his players) to believe, and he knows that we know it too. The Jets weren’t awful, they’re just not an elite team. Shonn Greene finally had a decent game, but his TD was only his second on the season. Mark Sanchez had his first INT-less game and posted his best passer rating on the year, but he was only able to throw for 166 yards against the defense that’s getting lit up like a Christmas tree this year. They get a break this week, hosting the Dolphins on MNF, and shit will hit the fan in New York if the winless Dolphins get on the board against their Jets.

I Must Break You!
If there was any doubt as to who is the best team in the NFL, the Packers squashed it by beating the Falcons. Down 14-0 and having lost his blind side protection, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to scores on 6 of their last 8 drives. He threw for 396 yards and two TDs and showed just how what kind of a leader he is, putting the team on his shoulders and consistently, methodically marching his team down the field against the Falcons. James Starks didn’t have a huge game, but he got the majority of the carries after Ryan Grant fumbled early. I’m anxious to see how Starks does against the woeful Rams run defense this week. Gotta give it to the defense too. After allowing two early TDs, the Packers didn’t let the Falcons modify the scoreboard for the rest of the game. If you don’t know who Desmond Bishop is by now, you better do so soon. This guy makes plays.

What a disappointing loss for the disappointing Falcons. They were trying to avenge last year’s playoff loss were inept offensively after taking a 14-0 lead. The remaining Falcons drives ended in punts (5) and interceptions (2). Matt Ryan is no longer automatic at home, and Michael Turner didn’t do much after an early outburst, totaling only 56 rushing yards. Tony Gonzalez is still getting it done. He’s lost a step or five, but he still catches what’s thrown in his direction and is a load to tackle. Unfortunately for the Falcons, Julio Jones went out with a hamstring injury. That would be a big loss, however long he was out.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Packers (1)
6-0 is right around the corner; no way the Rams slow down this machine.

2 – Ravens (2)
After a week off, I think they lay a sound beating on the Texans this Sunday.

3 – Saints (3)
They’re extremely dynamic and deep offensively and might have the games new best tight end.

4 – Patriots (4)
Weapons galore offensively, but they’ve got to fix that defense to get any higher on this list.

5 – Lions (5)
They’re going to lose eventually, but eventually isn’t this week. Calvin Johnson and a healthy Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best is a lethal combination.

6 – Bills (NR)
They’ve already matched last year’s win total and are a serious playoff contender.

7 – Steelers (NR)
It’s obviously not going to be smooth sailing this year in Pittsburgh, but the talent and experience is there to win big games.

8 – Chargers (8)
Show me more!

OUT – Texans (6)
I think they’re going to stagger a bit here on the road against Baltimore and Tennessee, especially with Andre Johnson and Mario Williams on the shelf.

Worst Teams
1 – Indianapolis (1)
Congratulations. You suck!

2 – Jacksonville (3)
Indy falling into a victory is the only thing keeping the Jags from the top of this list. After they lose to the Steelers, Ravens, and Texans, they’ll get to face those Colts in a battle for the top spot.

3 – Miami (5)
Still looking for their first win and a viable QB.

4 – Minnesota (2)
If they don’t beat the Bears this week, it’s going to be a while until they see win #2 (Packers, @ Panthers, @ Packers, Raiders, @ Falcons).

5 – St. Louis (6)
Nothing’s going right for these guys, but I still refuse to believe the Rams are one of the three worst teams in the NFL.

6 – Kansas City (4)
Prediction – They won’t lose this Sunday.

7 – Denver (8)
Tebow time! An exciting loss is still a loss.

8 – Cleveland (NR)
I could probably fall asleep at one of their games.

OUT – Seattle (7)
They’ve looked better each week since getting throttled by Pittsburgh.

Best Performances
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – 26/39, 396 yds, 2 TDs, 117 QB rating
Drew Brees (NO) – 32/45, 359 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 100.1 QB rating
Matt Cassel (KC) – 21/29, 257 yds, 4 TDs, 138.9 QB rating
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – 24/34, 228 yds, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 116.2 QB rating
Curtis Painter (IND) – 15/27, 277 yds, 2 TDs, 115.8 QB rating
Alex Smith (SF) – 11/19, 170 yds, 3 TDs, 127.2 QB rating

Adrian Peterson (MIN) – 29 carries, 122 yds, 3 TDs
Jahvid Best (DET) – 12 carries, 163 yds, 1 TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE) – 27 carries, 136 yds, 2 TD
Fred Jackson (BUF) – 26 carries, 111 yds, 1 TD, 6 receptions, 85 yds
Frank Gore (SF) – 20 carries, 125 yds, 1 TD
Matt Forte (CHI) – 22 carries, 116 yds, 4 receptions, 35 yds

Victor Cruz (NYG) – 8 catches, 161 yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin (SEA) – 8 catches, 136 yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe (KC) – 7 catches, 128 yds, 2 TDs
Pierre Garcon (IND) – 5 catches, 125 yds, 2 TDs
Jason Avant (PHI) – 9 catches, 139 yds
Calvin Johnson (DET) – 5 catches, 130 yds, 1 TD

Brandon Browner (SEA) – 6 total tackles, 1 huge INT returned for a TD
Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG) – 6 total tackles, 2.5 sacks
Nick Barnett (BUF) – 3 total tackles, 2 INTs, 1 TD
Pat Angerer (IND) – 15 total tackles
George Wilson (BUF) – 11 total tackles, 1 INT
Brian Robison (MIN) – 4 total tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble

Worst Performances
Josh Freeman (TB) – 17/33, 187 yds, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 43.4 QB rating
Michael Vick (PHI) – 26/40, 315 yds, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 66.1 QB rating
Kevin Kolb (ARI) – 21/42, 232 yds, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 46.9 QB rating
Kyle Orton (DEN) – 6/13, 34 yds, 1 INT, 21.0 QB rating
Matt Ryan (ATL) – 18/32, 167 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 55.1 QB rating

Cedric Benson (CIN) – 24 carries, 53 yds
Darren McFadden (OAK) – 16 carries, 51 yds
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) – 17 carries, 58 yds
Chris Johnson (TEN) – 14 carries, 51 yds

Denarius Moore (OAK) – 0 catches on 6 targets
Jacoby Jones (HOU) – 1 catch for 9 yards on 11 targets
Dallas Clark (IND) – 1 catch, 7 yds
Percy Harvin (MIN) – 1 catch, 11 yds
Brandon Lloyd (DEN) – 1 catch, 20 yds
Eric Decker (DEN) – 2 catches, -4 yds

Talbuc's Take - Week 4

2011-10-05T23:13:00.000-04:00

Ground and Pound? Duck and Cover!
Who pissed in the Ravens cheerios? In a game for the ages, Baltimore’s defense thrashed the Jets for three, yes three non-offensive TDs. Starting with Ed Reed’s fumble causing shot on Mark Sanchez, these guys are always in the right place at the right time. You can’t throw deep on them because 1) the front seven won’t give you time, and 2) they’ll just flock to the ball and pick you off if you go deep. You can’t run on them. They’re absolutely dominant. Ray Rice didn’t have a really big game, and Joe Flacco was pretty inaccurate. It’s nice to be able to fall back on an elite defense if you need to at times.

It was borderline assault. In the end, Sanchez was just trying to get rid of the football without wearing another helmet in the chest. He finished a shoddy 11 for 35 with a 30.5 QB rating. Where do the Jets go from here? The Raiders loss was technically an upset, but I had Oakland winning that one. I’m not the least bit shocked that they were a double digit loser to Baltimore, but to get pushed around like that offensively is outright embarrassing. Rex Ryan is reportedly fuming, but I’m not sure the timing is right for a behind closed doors blow up session. They’re facing the Patriots this week in a game that I fully expect them to lose. Have the blow up Sunday night or Monday and then take it out on the Dolphins next week. I’m not sure these Jets make the playoffs.

Patriots / Raiders
Uh, his name is Wes Welker, and he just scored again. I understand that the Patriots move him around the field to exploit matchups, but why are teams continuing to allow him to destroy their defenses? I think there’s a noticeable difference in Tom Brady’s rhythm when Aaron Hernandez is on the field, so you know Brady’s hoping he’s back this week. Stevan Ridley keeps impressing. Belichick isn’t a guy to ride just one back, but Ridley looks like his best option back there. Jerod Mayo injured his MCL during the game and is going to miss at least a month. That won’t help an already struggling defense. The Jets are this week’s opponent, and as much as Rex Ryan wants to go back to ground and pound, he’s got to give Mark Sanchez a chance against this secondary. After all, he did throw 3 TDs the last time he faced them.

I’m chalking this one up to simply the better team winning. I still believe in the Raiders. Losing to one of the league’s elite is nothing to be ashamed of. Where the Patriots aren’t elite is in the secondary. Like everyone’s been able to do the Patriots, Jason Campbell had a field day passing. You have to go back almost two years to find a game where he threw for more than 344 yards. Five different receivers caught four passes, and interestingly, Denarius Moore wasn’t one of them. The Raiders go to Houston this week and get to face a defense that just held Ben Roethlisberger to a 16/30, 206 yd, 1 INT stat line.

Chargers / Dolphins
I like how Ryan Mathews is starting to pick up the offense and, not coincidently, more touches. Vincent Jackson had his second 100 yard game of the year, but now he’s dealing with abdomen and leg issues. It doesn’t appear to be terribly serious at this point. Speaking of injuries, when will Antonio Gates get back on the football field? It looks like they’re going to hold him out at least through their bye next week. Larry English finally got on the stat sheet tallying his first two sacks of the season. The annually slow starting Chargers get a chance to move to 4-1 this week against the Broncos. Nice way to head into your bye week.

The Dolphins are bad, really bad. I’m not sure it can get a ton worse, but Chad Henne is probably going to miss some time after their week 5 bye with a shoulder injury. Matt Moore is the only option they have right now, but David Garrard and Jake Delhomme have been mentioned as possibilities. Sparano is apparently safe through the bye, but I can’t see him surviving too many more losses (@ Jets, v. Broncos, @ Giants).

Bears / Panthers
Matt Forte exploded for 205 yards on 25 carries, showing the world that he’s capable of big things when he’s got room to run. Devin Hester, you are ridiculous! Why oh why is anyone kicking the football to that man. Put the damn thing 20 rows deep on the sideline, or just give the Bears the ball at midfield. Do we not have enough film on that guy taking the ball to the house? That’s the good news. The bad news is that Jay Cutler had a pathetic 9/17, 102 yd, 1 INT performance against an underwhelming Panther defense. Detroit will tear him up if he brings that kind of game two weeks in a row.

Yes his Panthers are 1-3, but I’m really impressed with Cam Newton’s competitiveness. I’m not sure him throwing the ball 40+ times a week is a recipe for a ton of wins, but he’s making his team a consistent threat. I still think they’re the worst team in the division, but their three losses were by a combined 19 points. I don’t think they win either of their next two games (v. Saints and @ Atlanta), but keeping those contests close will say something.

Steelers Staggered
Welcome back Arian Foster. It’s not every day that the Pittsburgh Steelers allow an individual rusher to own them for 155 yards on the ground, and that’s what Foster did on 30 carries. Andre Johnson going down with a hamstring injury is about as big a loss as Houston can take. There was a huge change in tone of the game when Johnson went out with the injury. Pittsburgh was able to run the ball a bit more; almost like the Texans shut it down a bit on both sides of the ball. This week’s game against Oakland will be no walk in the park.

I’m not ready to say that the Steelers are old, but these guys aren’t able to dominate regardless the opponent like they used to. You can keep the Colts down without your A game, but when you face a team as talented as the Texans, you can’t just show up and expect that to be enough. Ben Roethlisberger is getting abused behind a horrible offensive line, and if he wasn’t the game’s sturdiest passer in the pocket, his lack of protection would be even more obvious. Now he’s got an injured foot going against the upstart Titans this week. The horrid offensive line is extending to the run game too as Rashard Mendenhall has been unable to put up an even mediocre performance. I think after they lose to Tennessee this week, the media will be feasting on the Steelers.

Titans / Browns
These Titans look like the real deal. Matt Hasselbeck is in a big time comfort zone. He threw 3 more TDs giving him 8 on the year. If he keeps this up he’ll outdo his TD output for the last two years combined. Chris Johnson finally got something going on the ground too, so look out. I don’t think Tennessee’s defense is as good as their #1 ranking, but they’re getting plays at every level of the defense. I think they’re a fairly serious contender.

Cleveland isn’t making strides. Colt McCoy has no business throwing 61 passes in one football game, and the Browns aren’t going to win when Peyton Hillis gets only 10 carries. Joe Haden, their best defensive player, got banged up, so they’ll hope he gets healthy real quick during their bye week. Cleveland looks no better than a 5 or 6 win team at this point.

Redskins / Rams
You figure if your top RB runs for just 8 less yards than your QB throws for that you’re probably going to lose badly, but the Redskins can win in spite of Rex Grossman. Ryan Torain was the story of the game, running for 135 yards in his first significant duty of the year. Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan are a lot of fun to watch defensively. I don’t think the Skins are that good and that we’ll learn a lot about them in their three post-bye games – v. Philly, @ Carolina, and @ Buffalo.

Man the Rams are bad. The receivers continue to drop passes. A big one I saw was Lance Kendricks dropping a TD in the endzone on a 4th down trailing 17-0. They had to settle for a FG on that drive and ended up losing by 7. Sam Bradford isn’t capable of carrying the offense just yet, and he’s getting zero help from his receivers. Tackle Jason Smith looks like a huge bust so far as the #2 pick just 2 years ago. Now they get to sit out a week and ponder how pitiful they are before facing the Packers, Cowboys, and Saints in their next three games. They’re looking 0-7 square in the face.

Giants / Cardinals
Imagine if Eli put together 4 quarters of football in a row. Impressively, the Giants were able to win on the road while only generating 54 yards on the ground. Victor Cruz has at least temporarily passed Mario Manningham on the depth chart and is now the #2 receiver. Catching 6 passes for 98 yards will do that for you. Hakeem Nicks is still the #1 on that team, as if he needed to put up a 10 catch, 162 yard performance to make that clear. New York will be atop the division next week after they go to 4-1 by beating the Seahawks Sunday.

The bright spot in this loss was Beanie Wells. After missing last week’s game, Wells threw down 138 yards and 3 TDs on a pretty stout Giants defense. Unfortunately that wasn’t enough as Manning feasted on a secondary that now ranks 26th in passing yards allowed. They should find the going a little easier this week in Minnesota against a must less threatening Vikings passing game. Kevin Kolb hasn’t been terribly threatening since his week 1 performance against the Panthers.

Drama in Dallas
WOW! WOW! WOW! These Lions are something special. Facing deficits of 17-0 and 2 7-3, Detroit scored 34 of the game’s last 37 points to shock and awe Dallas. Calvin Johnson – you can’t stop him; you can only hope to contain him. The Cowboys were able to do that for the majority of the game, but Johnson took over in the 4th, doing what superstars do – stepping up when his team needed him. Titus Young continues to produce when his number is called, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the year getting more targets than Nate Burleson. As awesome as their 4-0 start has been, Detroit’s biggest game of the year so far by far is next Monday night at home against the Bears. Think that dome will get loud? Matthew Stafford is already gaining priceless experience and confidence, and a MNF win would be another huge step forward.

What can you do but shake your head? This kind of stuff only happens to Tony Romo. Forget how a QB can throw pick-sixes on consecutive drives. How can he even be in a position to throw pick-sixes on consecutive drives? It’s a theme across talk radio this week – Where’s the run?!?! The Cowboys don’t have a bruiser anymore, but you’ve got to be able to run the ball when you’re up more than 3 TDs in the second half. No excuse for losing that one. I’m also a bit surprised (or maybe not) at how many are calling for a change at QB in Dallas, but McAwful continues to get free passes in Minnesota. Romo may make some bad plays at the worst times, but he at least gets his team to compete.

Packers / Broncos
I know these offensive numbers are getting ridiculous, but Aaron Rodgers is still the man. He became the first player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs to go along with two rushing scores. M-V-P. I love Greg Jennings’ route running, concentration, and hands, especially in the deep passing game where I think Mike Wallace is the only other pro who can rival his “dangerosity”. James Starks would have liked to have seen more than 13 carries, but he ran hard every time he had the ball. Desmond Bishop continues to make a name for himself, totaling 10 tackles, a sack, and a TFL.

Typical Kyle Orton. He threw 3 TDs, but he backed that up with 3 INTs. I think he’s a far more competent passer at this point than McNabb, but I also think the Broncos should make like I propose the Vikings do and see what they have in their young passer(s). Tim Tebow is rumored to be gaining momentum to emerge from their week 6 bye as the starter. Stay tuned. Willis McGahee may be 120 in football years, but Sunday marked his second 100+ yard performance in three weeks. He’s clearly the #1 there over Knowshon Moreno. Von Miller got two more sacks, giving him 4 in 4 games, and getting one step closer to that Defensive ROY award.

Falcons/ Seahawks
I think Matt Ryan has found something he likes. For the second week in a row, Julio Jones put up at least 115 yards, this time catching 11 passes on an insane 17 targets (40% of Ryan’s passes). The guy is a beast and is fitting in perfecting with the Falcons. I don’t like how their defense continues to bend and have trouble putting away the opposition. That’s going to come back and bite them soon, maybe REAL soon. Oh they host the Packers this week.

Tarvaris Jackson resembled an NFL QB against the Falcons, throwing for three scores and a career high 319 yards. Sidney Rice had his second big week in a row and caught his first TD as a Seahawk. I’ll be interested to see how much damage those two can do against the Giants this week.

Giving it Away
Yeah, I know they’re 3-1, but I still don’t think San Fran is any good. A gimpy Frank Gore made Philly look silly. Hell, Michael Crabtree was even relevant, so you know the Eagles weren’t doing their job. The Bucs don’t play well out west, but they should still beat the 49ers. Beat the Bucs and Lions, and I’ll believe.

The Eagles suck. They give up big plays like it’s their job – Gore 40 yd run, Crabtree 38 yd catch, Josh Morgan 30 yd catch, Kendall Hunter 40 yd catch, and Vernon Davis 26 yd catch. Hell, I thought they had three of the best corners in the game, and they can’t stop Alex Smith? They’ve got no heart and play like a bunch of individuals. Look no further for the prime example of how meaningless individual stats are. They’re 1-3 heading to Buffalo in a game that they probably should lose. Are they going to figure out how to play together this week? Doubtful. Stay hot Ronnie Brown.

Bengals / Bills
Beating Buffalo was Cincinnati’s best performance so far, but they’re still a bad football team. Fortunately for them, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules and get to play the Jaguars and Colts next. Again, another example how misleading stats can be – Andy Dalton threw for 298 yards, but he completed half of his passes, threw 2 INTs, and had a QB rating of 64.4. I don’t like where this inflated stats thing is going.

The Bills showed that they’re not quite there yet. Championship teams don’t lose 17-3 halftime leads against punchless teams like the Bengals. I’ll give them a mulligan, but they can’t come out flat this week against Philly. Not much else to say about them right now.

Saints / Jaguars
New Orleans’ offense is borderline criminal. It’s not enough that they’ve got one of the most talented and intellectual QBs in the game running the show, but at his disposal he’s got four reliable receivers, a monstrous, athletic TE, and a trio of backs that attack you from every angle. Jimmy Graham exploded for 10 catches on 14 targets with 132 yds and a TD. Darren Sproles continues to show how much of an improvement he is over Reggie Bush. He has such an influence on how defenses attack this offense, leaving them vulnerable to Brees and the big play. The Saints are looking really strong.

The “experts” figured MJD would put up good game against the Saints, but he was held to just 87 total yards and no scores. That’s not going to help a rookie QB get the team to a W. Blaine Gabbert’s second outing wasn’t an improvement upon the first, going 16 of 42 for 196 yd with 1 TD and 1 INT. Brees is elite, but the Jags defense/secondary put up a really weak opposition. Jack Del Rio might beat Tony Sparano to the unemployment line.

Vikings / Chiefs
The Chiefs still suck, but fortunately for them, so do the Vikings. I saw a lot this yawner and watched Kansas City FG Minnesota to death. Sure they got the win, but their run game is pathetic and Matt Cassel and Todd Haley got into it a bit on the sidelines. Tamba Hali dominated a piss poor offensive line, collecting 7 total tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, and 5 QB hits. Having a pass rusher like Hali will make up for a lot of weaknesses. The Chiefs try to run their streak to 2 games against the Colts this week in what’s being billed as the Suck for Luck bowl. Love it!

The Vikings are bad, but they can’t be any worse with Christian Ponder under center. McNabb is a joke. He’s still useless in the pocket, can’t hit open receivers, and has zero big play capability. What more do we need to see? If they can’t beat the Cardinals at home this week, I’m not sure how many more excuses can be made for McNabb.

Monday Night (Flag) Football
20 total ACCEPTED penalties, 14 on the Bucs. Again Ron Winter’s crew of officials shows itself to be one of the worst in all of sports. Way to go men!

The Bucs closed out week 4 with an extremely unnecessarily frustrating win over the Colts. They’re 3-1, but I think it’s pretty clear that this team has a long way to go before it’s a serious contender. The Bucs don’t do the little things it takes to be a champion. You don't step out of bounds before the ball gets to you as a receiver. You don't have stupid defensive breakdowns, letting receivers run free for long scores. You don’t jump offsides from the DT position. You don’t make stupid penalties that have no impact on the play. You don’t take a sack on 3rd down with minimal time left in the half or game. You get your offense off the field in time to kick a FG.

That bitching aside, there were plenty of individual performances to praise, starting with Josh Freeman. In addition to capping the victory with a critical fourth down conversion, I think the Bucs QB did a tremendous job managing the game action. He’s getting labeled a check down guy for the number of short passes he threw against the Colts, but that was simply a case of a QB taking what the defense gave him. Pat Angerer clears out the middle in the Tampa 2, and the Bucs were just running in players to where he was, getting those intermediate gains. Smart move in my opinion. No need to go for the big one when the defense is letting you walk down the field.

If Sucker Punch can string together a few more games like this one where he consistently hits the right hole and drags tacklers for extra yardage, I just might have to start calling him by his name. Until then… I’d like to see Mike Williams separate himself from this group of receivers, but I’ve got to say that I’m pleased that Preston Parker is making himself a regular factor. Again, I think we can do better talent-wise, but he’s got some of the quickness/suddenness that’s been missing. The offensive line did a great job giving Freeman time to look downfield and kept Dwight Freeney completely out of the stat sheet. Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but the Colts are one of the weaker defensive fronts in the league. Tampa won’t find things so easy in San Francisco this week.

Defensively, it was nice to see Adrian Clayborn and Gerald McCoy get after Curtis Painter. After two invisible weeks, this was Clayborn’s second straight game with a sack. Michael Bennett added two himself and looks really solid at LE. I did see him struggle with his hands and leverage a couple of times when trying to disengage from blocker moving laterally. Other than that, I can’t complain about what he’s doing. Aqib Talib is the only guy I’ve really got a beef with. All Pro players make All Pro plays. They don’t let Pierre Garcon run free for a long score, and they don’t drop near automatic pick sixes.

The Bucs are better than the 49ers and should win Sunday’s game. If they play as sloppy as they did for the majority of the Colts game, it’s going to be a long flight back to Tampa.

Best and Worst
At the quarter mark:

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Packers (1)
Dominated Denver and looking to repeat last year’s playoff visit to Atlanta.

2 – Ravens (2)
Speaking of dominating, their defense has given up 31 total points in their 3 wins.

3 – Saints (3)
Avoided a potential letdown in Jacksonville; looking to welcome Cam to the NFL this week.

4 – Patriots (4)
Played pissed off from that Buffalo loss, and I think they carry that over to a sound beating of the Jets.

5 – Lions (5)
Someone tell these guys they’re allowed to play with the lead.

6 – Texans (7)
Three tough ones ahead (OAK, BAL, TEN) without Andre Johnson will be rough.

7 – Chargers (NR)
They’re finally off to a good start at 3-1 but lost to the only decent team they’ve played so far (Patriots).

8 – Titans (NR)
Huge week ahead. I think they go all out and beat Pittsburgh on the road, get a week of to regenerate, and then host Houston in a huge division showdown.

Worst Teams
1 – Indianapolis (2)
Take away Pierre Garcon’s two long TD runs, and Indy’s offense was pitiful yet again. They’re getting banged up on both sides of the ball at an absurd rate.

2 – Minnesota (5)
They’ll continue to play badly as long as McNabb is under center.

3 – Jacksonville (4)
Sunday against Cincinnati might be their only winnable game for a month.

4 – Kansas City (1)
Sure they got a win, but they’re still awful and are now fighting on the sidelines.

5 – Miami (6)
You know things are bad when you’re upset about losing Chad Henne.

6 – St. Louis (8)
I surrender!

7 – Seattle (3)
Played Atlanta close, but I expect to see a truer representation Sunday against the Giants.

8 – Denver (7)
Tebow! Tebow! Tebow!

Best Performances
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – 29/38, 408 yds, 4 passing TDs, 1 INT, 134.5 QB rating, 9 rushes, 36 yards, 2 rushing TDs
Eli Manning (NYG) – 27/40, 321 yds, 2 TDs, 108.4 QB rating
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) – 10/20, 220 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 108.3 QB rating
Philip Rivers (SD) – 21/31, 307 yds, 1 TD, 110.6 QB rating

Matt Forte (CHI) – 25 carries, 205 yds, 1 TD, 4 catches, 23 yds
Arian Foster (HOU) – 30 carries, 155 yds, 1 TD, 3 catches, 11 yds
Beanie Wells (ARI) – 27 carries, 138 yds, 3 TDs
Ryan Torain (WAS) – 19 carries, 135 yds, 1 TD

Calvin Johnson (DET) – 8 catches, 96 yds, 2 TDs
Steve Smith (CAR) – 8 catches, 181 yds
Jimmy Graham (NO) – 10 catches, 132 yds, 1 TD
Julio Jones (ATL) – 11 catches (17 targets), 127 yds
Wes Welker (NE) – 9 catches, 158 yds, 1 TD

Jason Babin (PHI) – 3 total tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble
Brian Orakpo (WAS) – 5 total tackles, 2.5 sacks
Tamba Hali (KC) – 7 total tackles, 2 sacks
Kavell Conner (IND) – 18 total tackles (14 solo)
Stephen Tulloch (DET) – 12 total tackles, 1 INT
Michael Bennett (TB) – 5 total tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble
Paul Posluszny (JAX) – 13 total tackles, 1 sack

Worst Performances
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) – 11/35, 119 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 30.5 QB rating, 3 lost fumbles
Jay Cutler (CHI) – 9/17, 102 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 46.7 QB rating
Rex Grossman (WAS) – 15/29, 143 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 48.5 QB rating
Joe Flacco (BAL) – 10/31, 163 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 37.4 QB rating
Blaine Gabbert (JAX) – 16/42, 196 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 51.3 QB rating

Shonn Greene (NYJ) – 10 carries, 23 yds
Peyton Hillis (CLE) – 10 carries, 46 yds, 5 catches, 23 yds
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) – 12 carries, 39 yds, 1 TD, 4 catches, 11 yds, 1 fumble
Ronnie Brown (PHI) – Anyone see him throw the ball to the ground on that goal line carry? What the hell was he thinking?

Deion Branch (NE) – 1 catch, 4 yds (at least it resulted in a TD)
Nate Burleson (DET) – 2 catches, 16 yds
Roy Williams (CHI) – 1 catch, 15 yds
David Nelson (BUF) – 2 catches, 18 yds
Anquan Boldin (BAL) – 1 catch, 28 yds

(Quarter Way) MVP Voting
Here’s how I’d cast my ballot at the quarter mark:
1 – Aaron Rodgers
2 – Tom Brady
3 – Darren McFadden
4 – Drew Brees
5 – Matt Forte

Talbuc's Take - Week 3

2011-09-28T23:20:00.000-04:00

Believe in Buffalo
The Bills are for real! I love it! They stood toe to toe with the Patriots and eventually knocked them out. After stomping the Chiefs, they beat an also surprisingly good Raiders team before improving to 3-0 by beating the Patriots. Next up they go to Cincinnati and should be 4-0 before starting a really tough stretch – v. Eagles, @ Giants, v. Redskins, v. Jets, @ Cowboys. Their bye in week 7 breaks that stretch up a bit, and if they can emerge 6-3 at that point, you’ve got to like their chances to go .500 the rest of the way and make a playoff push. Watch out Jets!

I’m not going to overreact to the Patriots’ loss, but Brady can’t throw another 4 INTs this week at Oakland and leave with a win. More on the Raiders in a minute.

Wake Me When It’s Over
The 49ers are 2-1, but they’ve beaten two really bad teams (Seattle week 1) and get to face a pissed off Eagles team in Philly this Sunday. Frank Gore is banged up and slow, and Alex Smith can’t consistently make plays vertically. I expect them to get whooped by the Eagles.

What a disappointment by the Bengals. They had a chance to get off to a 2-1 start against an unimpressive 49er team, and managed a meager 2 FGs and a gift safety. Bad day for Andy Dalton and the entire offense; unable to generate anything. Good chance Buffalo doubles San Fran’s 13 points this week, so the Bengals better have a solid week of practice.

What He Said
This is basically a copy of the game above. Miami should have won against the Browns but instead dropped to 0-3 by losing to an unimpressive Browns team playing without Peyton Hillis. You shouldn’t lose when the opposing QB completes less than half of his passes (McCoy was 19-39). Tony Sparano is sitting on one of the hottest hot seats in the league. See Todd Haley in KC. They’re not beating the Chargers Sunday, so does he survive the bye only to (likely) lose to the Jets on the road? They’re clearly the worst team in that division, so with their season likely over after this Sunday, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dolphins make a change.

It’s Raining It’s Pouring!
What an ugly game. Cam Newton had his worst game so far by far, but more importantly, his team got their first win. Jonathan Stewart is clearly the better back through three games, making the re-signing of DeAngelo Williams as profitable as it was sensible.

Blaine Gabbert’s first start as a pro didn’t go as he’d hoped. He led a conservative offense in bad conditions to a FG and a freak TD to Mike Thomas at the end of the first half. The weather should be better this week at home, but the Saints will be a tougher foe than the Panthers.

Minnesota Meltdown
How ‘bout them Lions! After spotting the Vikings a 20-0 lead, they got two Calvin Johnson TDs and 4 (including OT) Jason Hanson FGs to move to 3-0. I love what they’re doing, and the next two weeks will tell me a lot about this team - @ Dallas and v. Chicago. Look for Titus Young to continue asserting himself offensively; love his potential.

Congratulations to the Vikings for losing a double digit second half lead for the third week in a row. How does a team with (arguably) the best back in the league lose sizeable leads like it’s their job? I’ll tell you. You only give Adrian Peterson five, yes five second half carries. Pure genius! McNabb is bad. Sure he went 22 for 36, but he barely broke 200 yards. Make some plays! They’ve got two winnable games coming up (@ KC and v. Arizona), and if they lose them, it’s Christian Ponder time. I’ve McSeen enough.

Don't Dream It's Over
I still think the Giants suck. Brandon Jacobs has no business running free for a 40 yard TD on a passing route, and Kurt Coleman and Nnamdi Asomugha lose man points for their weak tackle attempt on Victor Cruz’s long TD run. Cruz bested Nnamdi for another score later in the game, as the Eagles rolled over for the Giants. Hats off to New York for the division road win, but I think this game said more about the Eagles than the Giants. Love him or hate him, you’ve got to give Tom Coughlin credit. He does a fabulous job of preparing his team and actually managing a football game.

Damn Dream Team! What a sloppy showing by the Eagles. Michael Vick got beat up again and looked inexperienced and indecisive in the pocket. He bruised, not broke his right hand, so he should be on the field against San Fran Sunday in what has to be a must-win game for the Eagles. LeSean McCoy, not Vick is this team’s most dangerous weapon.

So Sorry, Sam
Baltimore got back on track by thrashing the Rams in St. Louis. Joe Flacco went off for 389 yards and 3 TDs, all to rookie Torrey Smith who was making his first pro start. He won’t do that again, but the threat of him getting free deep might open things up a bit more for Ray Rice and Ed Dickson, a guy I think claims a significant offensive role soon. The defense sacked Sam Bradford five times and got a Haloti Ngata TD to cap their scoring. They needed a good performance before hosting the Jets this Sunday night. I expect the Ravens to beat New York and move to 3-1.

There are worse teams, but the Rams might be the most disappointing so far this year. Sure they haven’t faced any softies yet, but they’ve been decisive losers in each of their three games. The defense is trying to match the offense in ineptitude, and that schedule doesn’t get any easier with the Redskins, Packers, Cowboys, and Saints on the horizon.

At Least They Didn’t Score 40!
The Chargers were lucky they played the Chiefs this week with as sloppy as they looked. Not having Antonio Gates doesn’t help, but Philip Rivers should have made more plays in the passing game. He let KC hang in a game that shouldn’t have been close. Ryan Mathews is getting more involved, so look for him to shine against the Dolphins this week.

As I mentioned earlier, Todd Haley’s on the proverbial hot seat thanks to an 0-3 start that saw them outscored 109-27 in those “contests”. If they lose to the Vikings and Colts these next two weeks, he could be gone before/during their week 6 bye. Again, what a waste of Dwayne Bowe’s talents.

Too Many Weapons
After Bills-Patriots, this was probably the next best game of the week. The Saints trailed 16-7 in the first half and 19-17 at halftime, but Drew Brees’ 3 second half TDs and a late score by Mark Ingram held off Houston. I like that when Lance Moore finally got back to full strength he produced big time – 9 catches for 88 yards and a TD. Jimmy Graham is a beast. The guy can get shut down for an entire half and still put up 100 yards. Imagine what he’ll be like when he figures out football. I picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl, and I’m definitely not disappointed with what I’ve seen so far. I really like they’re chances of being 4-1 when they head to Tampa in three weeks.

James Casey was Houston’s most impressive player; had a couple of really big plays. Houston’s reward? A pissed off Pittsburgh team followed by the Raiders, Ravens, and Titans. I still think they win this division, but don’t be a bit surprised if their week 7 game at Tennessee is highly significant.

Sleepwalking to a Win
How bad can you play and still win a football game? Just ask Pittsburgh. Rashard Mendenhall couldn’t run, and you know your OL is in bad shape when you can’t grind it out against the Colts. Aside from his long TD to Mike Wallace, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t make many big plays. Again, disappointing considering they were facing the Colts. Bright spots? Mike Wallace and Troy Polamalu are amazing talents. I hyped Wallace in my preseason predictions, and so far, his 377 receiving yards are second most in the league. Polamalu looks 150% healthy and was a beast getting after Kerry Collins. If they come out that flat again this week at Houston, they’ll get boat raced.

Speaking of Kerry Collins – WOW, that was bad. Sure he didn’t get a lot of time to prepare with the Colts this preseason, but the man is supposed to be a professional passer. Those guys don’t consistently miss wide open receivers with horrible timing. I’d start Curtis Painter and increase my scouting of Andrew Luck. What a difference two players make when the Colts play at home. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were on Roethlisberger’s heels throughout, and when those two get going, the crowd gets loud, and it’s a whole different kind of atmosphere in the dome. Pat Angerer is a monster. He was everywhere, totaling 21 tackles as the key reason for Mendenhall’s struggles.

Tough Win For Tennessee
What a huge loss for the Titans. Kenny Britt is done for the year after tearing both the ACL and MCL in his right knee. With 17 catches and 3 TDs in less than 3 games, he was well on his way to a monster year. Chris Johnson really needs to get things figured out. He’s run for a horribly disappointing 98 TOTAL yards in three games. Wow! Matt Hasselbeck has looked rejuvenated; solid in every game so far. Look for Nate Washington to take over as his primary target and for Johnson to be used more in the passing game to get him jump started. Where are you Jared Cook?

Like the Browns, I don’t have much of anything to say about the Broncos. Kyle Orton is average at best, and the Broncos (John Fox) are fighting giving Tim Tebow a shot. After they lose to the Packers and Chargers in their next two games and are sitting 1-4, do we need to see more Orton? Their fans will still be pissed because Fox will probably next go with Brady Quinn.

Different Year, Same Results
This game was close on the scoreboard for a half, but there wasn’t much doubt that the Packers were the better team and would leave with a win. Hello Jermichael Finley! He showed his red zone skills with two early TDs. Ryan Grant outperformed James Starks this week but suffered a bruised kidney. I’m interested to see how they divvy up the carries this week if Grant plays. If he doesn’t, this is the kind of matchup where Starks has a chance to stake a serious claim for the job. Either way, the Packers should roll the Broncos.

That’s two ugly showings in a row for the Bears. Can they beat the Panthers at home this week? I think it ends up being closer than Bears fans want it to be. Jay Cutler is visibly uncomfortable in this offense, and they can’t string together any consistency. I still don’t see them being a threat to the Packers or even the Lions this season.

Pretty Don’t Pay the Bills
I love it that the Bucs won an ugly game; shows character, especially against a division rival. Josh Freeman put up a 56.8 QB rating on the day, but most importantly, he got a W. His biggest play of the game was his last, a fourth and short where he drew the Falcons offsides to seal the victory. Defensively, the rookie and the old man were the standouts. Mason Foster is thriving in a three down role, totaling five tackles and a sack and leading the team in both categories on the season. This guy’s arrow is pointing directly skyward. Ronde Barber recovered a fumble, defended three passes, had a tackle for loss, and amassed four total tackles on the day. Adrian Clayborn registered his first sack as a pro. Let’s hope he doesn’t stick to this one-every-three-games trend. EJ Biggers was beaten early and often by Roddy White, displaying a boundary weakness. I’m not a big Cody Grimm fan, but losing a starting safety for the rest of the year won’t help. I still think Corey Lynch and Larry Asante will do just fine. Do the Bucs still want Tanard Jackson to be a part of the team?

If I’m the Falcons I’m a little worried. Last year’s division champs are 1-2 with their one victory coming in a late rally against the Vickless Eagles. They were awful in week one against the Bears and couldn’t establish a thing on the ground against the Bucs with Michael Turner. Their offensive line is extremely porous. Besides not opening running lanes for Turner, they got Matt Ryan sacked another 4 times, bringing their/his season total to 13. He won’t make it their week 8 bye at this rate.

Kicking Fit
Tony Romo’s not going to put this win on his resume, but he did enough to lead the Cowboys to a boring field goal filled MNF victory. Felix Jones was the key offensive player for the Cowboys, showing a couple of times that if he can get past the first layer of the defense, he’s going to run for a while. That was his first solid showing of the year, and if he ever misses time, I think there will be a noticeable drop off to Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray. Sean Lee has quietly become a defensive leader. The guy is everywhere every week.

Rex Grossman is the definition of an average, frustrating QB. He’s no threat to put together a six point drive with his arm and can’t make the right read AND put the ball where it needs to be twice in a row. The Rams defense will reach a new low this week if Grossman can move them up and down the field.

Seahawks / Cardinals
Seattle wins a boring NFC West game. Kevin Kolb isn’t a hero so far. I got nothing else.

Best and Worst

Best Teams (Previous Rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
They’ll be here next week too after demolishing Denver.

2 – Baltimore (3)
That’s more like it. I still think they’ll prove to be the class of the conference.

3 – New Orleans (4)
They’re this year’s sneaky team who’ll be there in the end. Bank on it!

4 – New England (2)
The league’s worst pass defense is a serious sore spot; wouldn’t be shocked if the Raiders beat them this week.

5 – Detroit (NR)
A win this week at Dallas would be a big statement and give them even more confidence going into week 5 against the Bears.

6 – Pittsburgh (6)
Their OL is going to be what keeps them from winning the division. No run lanes, no time for Ben to get comfortable.

7 – Houston (7)
They’d jump Pittsburgh with a win this week, and they’d be really dangerous with a legit #2 receiver.

8 – Philadelphia (4)
No they’re not as good as the hype, but they’re not this bad either.

Worst Teams
1 – Kansas City (2)
They’ve got a better chance of winning this week than do the Colts, but I think KC loses when these two go head to head in week 5.

2 – Indianapolis (1)
How bad are things when you want Curtis Painter on the field?

3 – Seattle (3)
That win against Arizona doesn’t impress me. Beat the Falcons this week, and I’ll move you down this list.

4 – Jacksonville (4)
Four of the next five weeks are brutal (Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Texans). If they lose to the Bengals in week 5, the Chiefs and Colts might have some competition.

5 – Minnesota (5)
They’ve only lost their three games by a combined 14 points, but they’re such an uninspiring team. Not sure how they get any better with McNabb at QB.

6 – Miami (7)
Not sure how they get up for this week’s game after giving away last week’s.

7 – Denver (6)
Eager to see how they come out of their week 6 bye after losing to the Packers and Chargers the next two weeks.

8 – St. Louis (NR)
They got hosed with a brutal early schedule, and this week’s game against Washington is huge with the Packers on deck.

Best Performances
Joe Flacco (BAL) – 27/48, 389 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 103.6 QB rating
Matthew Stafford (DET) – 32/46, 378 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 108.8 QB rating
Drew Brees (NO) – 31/44, 370 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 99.6 QB rating
Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) – 27/40, 369 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 92.6 QB rating

Darren McFadden (OAK) – 19 carries, 171 yds, 2 TDs
LeSean McCoy (PHI) – 24 carries, 128 yds, 1 TD
Ryan Mathews (SD) – 21 carries, 98 yds, 2 TDs, 4 catches, 51 yds
Felix Jones (DAL) – 14 carries, 115 yds, 3 catches, 40 yds

Wes Welker (NE) – 16 catches, 217 yds, 2 TDs
Torrey Smith (BAL) – 5 catches, 152 yds, 3 TDs
Jermichael Finley (GB) – 7 catches, 85 yds, 3 TDs
Calvin Johnson (DET) – 7 catches, 108 yds, 2 TDs
Rob Gronkowski (NE) – 7 catches, 109 yds, 2 TDs

Pat Angerer (IND) – 21 total tackles (12 solo)
Jared Allen (MIN) – 6 total tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble
Calais Campbell (ARI) – 10 total tackles, 2.5 sacks
Ray Lewis (BAL) – 10 total tackles (all solo), 1 forced fumble
Dwight Freeney (IND) – 4 total tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble

Worst Performances
Andy Dalton (CIN) – 17/32, 157 yds, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 40.8 QB rating
Sam Bradford (STL) – 16/32, 166 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, sacked 5 times, 1 fumble, 62.8 QB rating
Tarvaris Jackson (SEA) – 18/31, 171 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, sacked 4 times, 60.0 QB rating
Michael Vick (PHI) – 16/23, 176 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 71.5 QB rating

Frank Gore (SF) – 17 carries, 42 yds, 1 fumble, 0 receptions
Chris Johnson (TEN) – 13 carries, 21 yds
Willis McGahee (DEN) – 22 carries, 52 yds (2.4 yards per carry)
Cedric Benson (CIN) – 17 carries, 64 yds
Shonn Greene (NYJ) – 15 carries, 59 yds

Santonio Holmes (NYJ) – 1 catch, 19 yds
Steve Smith (CAR) – 2 catches, 15 yds
DeSean Jackson (PHI) – 2 catches, 30 yds
Reggie Wayne (IND) – 3 catches, 24 yds
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) – 3 catches, 25 yds

Talbuc's Take - Week 2

2011-09-20T20:54:00.000-04:00

A Tale of Two Halves
Though they were outgained, out “first downed”, and possessed the ball for seven less minutes, the Bucs led in the only category that really matters – the final score. Tampa Bay broke into the win column Sunday by overcoming a 17-0 deficit to beat Minnesota 24-20. Josh Freeman was nearly flawless in the second half, going 15 for 20 with 191 yards and a pretty 25 yard TD toss to Arrelious Benn. Freeman’s lone blemish was a really ugly INT in the endzone on the drive following the onside kick, which was a nice ballsy move in my opinion. After the INT, Freeman went 12 for 15 the rest of the way, completing passes to six different receivers and leading the Bucs on three scoring drives.

Sucker Punch Blount had a nice game as well, doing most of his damage in the second half, including two touchdowns. Blount isn’t much of an explosive back and needs lanes to pick up big chunks, but he tallied totes of 27 (TD), 13, and 8 (twice) yards in the second half. Another offensive bright spot was Preston Parker who caught six passes for 98 yards and racked up another 97 on five returns. Parker saw an increase in action due to Sammie Stroughter’s injury, but I’d argue that he should be ahead of Stroughter with both at equal health. He’s not the answer to my explosive playmaker need, but he’s an asset.

I liked how they got Dezmon Briscoe involved, catching four passes, but I was surprised how ineffective Mike Williams was rendered on the afternoon. He made a beautiful catch on that TD that was brought back due to Arrelious Benn’s illegal shift penalty. Attention to details youngster! The Bucs were forced to settle for a FG on that drive instead.

One other guy stood out to me as having a good game. Mason Foster made much more of an impact this week, totaling seven solo tackles, forcing a fumble, and one sack. I was interested to see how Foster would do in a game where the Bucs go against a solid running back, thus keeping him on the field more. They didn’t shut down Adrian Peterson, but Foster and company did a solid job of keeping the Vikings out of the endzone for the entire second half. Sean Jones didn’t have a bad game, and his sack of Donovan McNabb on third and long near midfield stopped the Vikings and forced a punt.

There were three pretty ugly defensive performances as well. Quincy Black continues to lack consistency and display pretty poor play read and react skills. I’m still surprised the Bucs spent so much to keep him this offseason. I’m not a big Cody Grimm fan, but Grimm himself would be hard pressed to find much good in his play thus far this season. He’s slow and pretty non-existent most of the time. Adrian Clayborn failed to be a factor once again, and it’s not going to take many more performances like that before the grumblings start. Gerald McCoy didn’t do much either, but at least he put a semi-dent in the stat sheet.

The Vikings are going to be bad this year, and they need to funnel just about everything through Peterson and Percy Harvin. The latter was really underutilized Sunday, playing in less than half of Minnesota’s offensive snaps. That’s just inexcusable coaching and play calling. McNabb put up better numbers this week, but man does he look slow and lethargic. I don’t see how he makes it through another five games as their starter. He gets to host the Lions and Mr. Suh this week. Good luck.

The Bucs get a much bigger test this week when they return home to host the Falcons who will be coming into town with a boost in confidence. The first worry that jumps out to me is if the front four can’t put any pressure on Matt Ryan because Aqib Talib is the only guy on the back end capable of making plays. The Falcons will feed Michael Turner a ton, but you know they’re going to test the Bucs deep with Julio Jones and in middle with Tony Gonzalez. If the Bucs trying to trade punches by featuring a lot of Blount, I think it’s going to be a long afternoon for the home team. Tampa’s best chance for consistent scoring opportunities is going to be with a lot of play action passing, getting Freeman on the edge and having him attack the defense with a lot of short to mid range routes. It’s not the prettiest of approaches, but I don’t think the Bucs can go toe to toe with Atlanta’s offense.

Cutler Cut Down
It’s a thing of beauty to watch the elite passers go through their progressions and maximize each play’s potential. Drew Brees had no loyalties, spreading his 26 completions among 8 receivers with each of his three TDs going to a different pass catcher in an impressive 30-13 beating of the Bears. That bomb to Devery Henderson was passing perfection. Brees threw the ball from his own 13 and hit Henderson in stride on Chicago’s 32. That’s a 55 yard bullseye. Once again Darren Sproles proved his worth, turning 12 touches into 60 yards and a TD. Even though he really stepped out of bounds inside the 5, Sproles got to the edge on that swing pass before Chicago had any time to react. Look for more of the same this week against the Texans. Aside from Jay Cutler’s bad game throwing the ball (a horrid 19 of 45), the other thing that stood out most to me was that the Bears ran the ball just twice on seven second half drives. The game was within reach into the fourth, but they decided to ride the ragged arm of Cutler to a completion percentage of 42 even though he was getting knocked around constantly, suffering six sacks. Cutler’s prize? He gets to head home and host the champs this week.

Who’s Overhyped?
Early last week, Jason Hill (you know, the guy who shouldn’t be a starting receiver on any NFL team) made the comment that Darrelle Revis (the game’s best cover man) was overhyped. What makes that comment even funnier is that Hill didn’t have the “health” to suit up and partake in receiving a 32-3 beatdown from the Jets. I love this quote from the New York Post – "So sad, so sad. I'm in tears," Revis said. "When you do trash-talk, you've got to be able to back it up. He wasn't out there. I don't know. I guess he got the New York Jets flu or something." The Jags showed me I wasn’t completely crazy for predicting they’d be this year’s worst team, and they may already be switching to Blaine Gabbert in week 3. The rookie saw action late in the whooping, and Jack Del Rio was non-committal when asked about who will start this week in Carolina. The Jets may have won, but they can’t be pleased that Shonn Green gained only 49 yards on 16 carries (3.1 average) and that Mark Sanchez threw two interceptions and gained only 81 yards on the 11 completed passes that didn’t go to Dustin Keller. The Jets defense got back on track and nearly held the Jaguars to under 200 total yards. They’ll get to travel to Oakland this week, but they’ll be missing center Nick Mangold who is expected to miss the next 2-3 weeks with a high ankle sprain.

Bills A-gain Bring A-Game
My two surprise AFC teams faced off Sunday in one of the week’s most exciting contests in a game that started out as a potential laugher for the Raiders. After spotting Oakland a 21-3 halftime lead, the Bills fought back on the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the legs of Fred Jackson, scoring a TD on all of their five second half possessions en route to a 38-35 comeback victory. The Raiders were literally defenseless, with Tyvon Branch letting the second fourth quarter TD slipping right through his hands and into Scott Chandler’s. I’ve stated my faith in Fitzpatrick a couple of times before, and he’s doing nothing to change my mind. He’s not going to be an elite guy, but he can win. David Nelson is proving to be a fairly reliable #2 receiver, and Jackson looks to finally be getting some warranted respect. After scoring 79 points in their first two games, the Bills will look to keep the offense churning this week against the Patriots. For Oakland, Darren McFadden looks to be in the best shape of his professional career. He ran for less than half of the 150 yards he put up against the Chiefs, but once again the offense ran through him and didn’t miss a beat. In addition to his 20 carries, McFadden had 7 receptions for 71 yards and two total TDs. The other offensive bright spot was rookie receiver Denarius Moore. I mentioned him in my preseason preview as a guy to watch, and if he keeps this up, you won’t be able to help but watch him. Moore totaled 146 yards on 5 catches, including a beautiful 50 yd TD that will likely be on many end of season highlight reels. The scoring strike had him outrunning, outjumping, and outplaying two Buffalo defenders for the ball. On an earlier play, Moore stole the ball in midair from Leodis McKelvin for a 20 yard gain. He also caught a 42 yard pass on a go route, leaving McKelvin in his wake and making it look easy. He’s an exciting talent.

Nashville No-Show
Tennessee did a nice job of keeping Ray Rice in check, although he did bust loose for a really pretty 31 yard screen pass TD, breaking four tackles in the process of getting to the endzone. There wasn’t enough of that though Sunday. Run lanes were few and far between as Tennessee did a really now job of executing their defensive game plan and confusing Joe Flacco throughout. Baltimore’s passer completed less than half of his 32 pass attempts, failed to reach 200 yards, and threw two costly interceptions. Unless Ed Dickson steps up a bit more, I really worry about a lack of a real receiving threat behind Anquan Boldin and Rice. Defensively, how in the world do you let Matt Hasselbeck go 30 of 42 for 358 yards? For one, you fail to come up with an answer for Kenny Britt. The receiver from Rutgers totaled 135 yards on 9 receptions and scored again, giving him three TDs through two games. I hope he can stay out of trouble because this guy has scary talent. Chris Johnson wasn’t much of a factor once again, rushing for less than 2.5 yards per carry and adding a measly 12 yards in the passing game. Yes, they won, but let’s not kid ourselves. That’s not going to continue with Johnson struggling to get back up to game speed. Baltimore better not go sleepwalking on the road again this week because they’re coming up against a frustrated 0-2 Rams team. Tennessee will look to move to 2-1 when they host Denver.

Steel City Shutout
I guess they’re not too old huh? Some folks overreacted a bit to last week’s thumping at the hands of the Ravens, saying the Steelers were too old. Ask Pete Carroll just how old those Seelers are. Tarvaris Jackson was accurate with his passes, but none of them went for much as he finished with 159 yards passing. Seattle’s running game was non-existent, gaining just 31 yards on 13 carries. The fact that Carroll isn’t anywhere near making a change under center tells you how much they think of Charlie Whitehurst. Rashard Mendenhall didn’t get loose for the second week in a row, although he did find the endzone once. Mike Wallace had a really big game, catching 8 passes for the second week in a row, racking up 126 yards and a score. He’s currently tied for fourth in football with 233 receiving yards. The Steelers got a bit of a scare when Ben Roethlisberger went down late in the first half with what looked like a decent knee injury, but he was able to stay in the game and be his usual productive self. Pittsburgh will look to be the next team to beat up on the Manning-less Colts. It could get ugly in Indy.

Huge Loss in Detroit
The Lions put a 48-3 whoopin’ on the Chiefs Sunday, highlighted by 294 yards and 4 TDs by Matthew Stafford. On the receiving end of Stafford’s scoring strikes were Calvin Johnson (2), Tony Scheffler, and Jahvid Best. Interestingly, Johnson caught only three passes on the day, and Scheffler’s TD was his only catch on the day. Nate Burleson and rookie Titus Young paced the way for Detroit. I’m a big Young fan and like his potential in this offense, especially if Burleson gets hurt again. What was worse for KC than dropping to 0-2 in ugly fashion was losing star RB Jamaal Charles for the year with a torn ACL. On a first quarter 3rd down carry with his team down just seven in Detroit territory, Charles stretched his left leg and slipped on the first down marker when going out of bounds. He rolled into the Lions mascot and grabbed his left knee. That effectively puts the fork in any chances the Chiefs had of being relevant this year. Dexter McCluster has some shake, but he’s no Charles. Expect them to go to the air more with Matt Cassel, but damn, that’s not terribly enticing. He’s awful. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tyler Palko is given a shot soon, but I would really consider their #3 Ricky Stanzi. He might be their best chance of getting something going in the passing game, specifically with Dwayne Bowe. What a waste of a talented receiver.

Missing Manning
Wow, Indy is bad. Can a player actually win the MVP without playing in a single game? I know they’re without Gary Brackett too, but it’s painfully obvious how important Peyton is to the Colts. I’m sure that, given more time, they could have come up with something better than Kerry Collins, but they’re going nowhere with him. The running game is more irrelevant than ever, and I don’t see how they’re going to win any games where the defense surrenders more than 24 points. Cleveland played better than in their home opener against the Bengals, but again, this was the Colts; not sure this really validates them yet. I like how efficient Colt McCoy was, completing 22 of 32 passes, and how he was able to spread it around to 8 different receivers. I still think it’s only a matter of time before Greg Little busts out as the primary guy there.

Scare-olina
The champs nearly got more than they bargained for from the Panthers. Trailing at the half, the Packers got a 49 yard TD from Greg Jennings in the third quarter to take the lead for good and withstood a late Panther rally to move to 2-0. The huge bad news to come out of the game for the Packers was the season ending neck injury sustained by Nick Collins. The Packers are already giving up more passing yards than expected this season, and losing an All Pro safety certainly won’t help things. Keep a close eye on the progress of the Packer secondary. James Starks busted a nice 40 yard run and again was clearly the more dangerous back. No, I’m not a fan, but I’ve got to commend Cam Newton on a second straight impressive showing. The veteran Packer defense did force three INTs, but the rookie kept them on their heels all day, throwing for 432 yards and making 100 yard receivers out of Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart. Look for a huge game from Newton this week against the Jaguars. The RB situation is ugly though, as neither Stewart nor DeAngelo Williams were able to eclipse the 20 yard mark. Newton throwing 46 passes will limit your carries, but that’s two of two games where the Panthers struggled to establish a semblance of a run game.

Don’t Forget About Us
The Eagles drew a ton of offseason buzz, and there are/were playoff expectations in New York and Dallas. But through the first two weeks of the season, the only remaining undefeated NFC East team is the Washington Redskins. In the weekend’s closest contest, the Redskins beat the Cardinals behind solid QBing by Rex Grossman and three short but important Graham Gano FGs. I’ll still be surprised if Grossman gets this team to the playoffs, but he looked like a winner Sunday, leading five scoring drives, including an 18 yard TD toss on 4th and 3 from Arizona’s 16 with just over 5 minutes to go. Tim Hightower was still the primary ball carrier, but Roy Helu added 74 yards on 10 carries. Look for him to get more work going forward. Fred Davis is standing out as a reliable target for Grossman, catching 6 passes for 86 yards. He’s been stuck behind Chris Cooley during his time in DC, but with Cooley slow in getting back to health, Davis is getting a chance to stake his claim on the starting job. Take away Kevin Kolb’s nice deep TD to Larry Fitzgerald, and he had a ho hum 16/29 for 178 yards. I’m still not sold that he’s going to take this team to new heights.

No Knowshon Needed
It’s hard to get excited about a Bengals-Broncos game, but oneguy to start getting excited about is Eric Decker. The receiver from Minnesota created a bit of buzz with a solid preseason and turned in a fine performance Sunday with 113 receiving yards and 2 TDs. I don’t see why he can’t be a reliable weekly target for Kyle Orton. Willis McGahee subbed in nicely for an injured Knowshon Moreno, running for 101 yards and a score. I’d like to think he can keep it up, but he’ll be facing a confident Titans defense this week. I was impressed with Andy Dalton’s ability to move the chains, throwing for 332 yards and two scores. AJ Green had his first bust out day, catching 10 passes for 124 yards and a score. Hopefully that’s the start of something good between Green and Dalton. Second year defensive end Michael Johnson had a nice game as well, registering seven tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble.

Back to the Backup
Arian Foster isn’t completely healthy and will now take on a reduced role until he is. Ben Tate did just fine in his place, rushing for 103 yards on 23 carries against the Dolphins. Don’t be surprised if Tate earns a permanent piece of the action when Foster gets back all the way. This was pretty much Tate’s job a year ago before he tore up his ankle. Andre Johnson continues to be a weekly dominating force, scoring once and finishing just shy of 100 yards. Speaking of 100 yards, Daniel Thomas had his first triple digit game as a pro, rushing for 107 yarsd on just 18 carries. The Browns will probably be a little tougher to attack in the middle this week. Chad Henne didn’t exactly ride his MNF momentum into this matchup, completing only 12 of 30 passes and leading the Dolphins on only one TD drive on the day. I’m looking forward to a Brandon Marshall / Joe Haden matchup this week.

Opportunities Wasted
Tom Terrific did it again. Brady backed up his 517 yards against the Dolphins with 423 more in an impressive 35-21 win against the Chargers. He tossed another 3 TDs, but once again, none of them went to Deion Branch. Brady’s old reliable now has 15 catches and 222 yards without a score through two games. The TDs will come, maybe really soon since Aaron Hernandez is now sidelined a few weeks with an MCL sprain. Chad Ochocinco doubled his reception output from 1 to 2, so at this pace, he should be pretty dangerous come December. Philip Rivers had two huge miscues. The first came on the pass picked off by Vince Wolfork late in the second quarter. The Chargers were within field goal range but instead surrendered one of their own to go into the half down 20-7 instead of 17-10 or better. If the Chargers are able to score TDs on both of those drives instead of the interceptions, they’d be up 21-17 in the third quarter. In a case of polar opposited, Vincent Jackson racked up 10 catches, 172 yards, and 2 TDs while All Pro TE Antonio Gates caught as many passes as I did Sunday. Last time that happened? Never. Gates has caught at least one pass in every game he’s played until the Patriots shut him out.

Ouch!
It’s cool to make fun of Tony Romo, but whether you like the guy or not, you’ve got to love the heart he showed by playing through a cracked rib and a collapsed lung. The guy threw for 345 yards on the day, 248 of them coming after sustaining the blow that did the damage. I got a new appreciation for that guy. Miles Austin had a huge day – 9 catches, 143 yards, and 3 TDs. His reward? A hamstring injury that is expected to sideline him a month. Fortunately Dez Bryant looks likely to return this week. Felix Jones, again, wasn’t a factor, but he gets some recognition for playing through a dislocated shoulder. Frank Gore was neutralized, totaling only 64 yards on the day, although he did score once. Yeah, he was efficient, but Alex Smith is such an uninspiring QB. No one receiver gained more than 40 yards. I know they’re not Jerry Rice, John Taylor, and Brent Jones, but a winning QB has to put his team on his shoulders on occasion. Smith can’t. Can they lose enough to get Andrew Luck, or will Jim Harbaugh consider a free agent like Josh Johnson next offseason?

Homecoming Horror
Michael Vick’s return to Atlanta started getting ugly late in the first half. The mistakes? With the ball inside Atlanta’s 5 and a chance to go up 17-7 at the two minute warning of the first half and get the Falcons thinking that they’re about to repeat last week’s beatdown in Chicago, Michael Vick fumbled a handoff to LeSean McCoy that was picked up by Ray Edwards and returned 64 yards to Philly’s 24. Four plays later, Matt Ryan connected with Tony Gonzalez for the first of his two TDs. So instead, they’re in a 14-10 hole, and what happens next? With a little bit of time to get into range for a somewhat redeeming FG attempt, Vick fumbled on a blindside hit by John Abraham, squandering another opportunity. Vick went down late in the third after being forced into one of his offensive linemen, causing him to bit his tongue and, more importantly, suffer a concussion. His status for this week is uncertain. I would like to see more of Matt Kafka though. He stepped in because Vince Young was out with an injury, but knowing what I know about the two players, I’d roll with Kafka. Is it just me or does it look like Vince Young packed on a pound or 50? It was good to see Jeremy Maclin get involved in the offense. He exploded for 13 catches, 171 yards, and 2 TDs. He’d be better appreciated in most other offenses. Aside from Roddy White’s short score, the Eagles secondary effectively shut down both he and Julio Jones. They combined for 5 catches and 53 yards. I’m not a big Michael Turner fan, but I’m impressed with how well he ran against that aggressive defense; totaling 114 yards on 21 carries, including a 61 yard run. I’d still rather have LeSean McCoy. That dude makes something out of nothing every time he touches the football. He didn’t put up the yards that Turner did, but his two scores and 95 yards on the ground were even more impressive to me than Turner’s solid showing.

Monday Night Yawner
Is it just me, or is every Giants game a nerve-racking affair? They won by 12 and seemingly had the game in hand most of the way, but you always get the feeling that they’re a bad Eli Manning pass, running back fumble, or defensive miscue from letting the other team right back in it. Manning started and finished slowly. He threw an interception on his first drive and went three and out on his second. For the entire fourth quarter, Manning threw four passes on 3 non-kneel down drives. Mario Manningham was the top receiver totaling 56 yards, and Hakeem Nicks played through a knee injury managing only snagged three catches. Manning is struggling with them in the game, and it’s only going to get worse if one or both of them should miss time. I’m not a Michael Boley fan, but he had a really good game; showed a lot of hustle and good play recognition. His best play of the game was snatching up a lateral that Cadillac spaced on and running it back 65 yards for a TD. Sam Bradford can’t do it all, yet. He had no time to throw and wasn’t getting much help from his receivers either. Still, he put up 331 yards in a losing effort. Cadillac confirmed what most already knew – that he’s no longer primary ball carrier material (13 carries, 36 yards; 3 catches, 4 yards). Greg Salas need to carry around a football all week after fumbling twice.

NFL’s Best & Worst
With a little more to go on after two weeks, I’ve expanded my best and worst rankings:

Best Teams (previous rank)
1 – Green Bay (1)
2 – New England (3)
3 – Baltimore (2) – chalking last week up to hell freezing over
4 – New Orleans (5)
5 – Philadelphia (4)
6 – Pittsburgh (NR)
7 – Houston (NR)

Worst Teams
1- Indianapolis (3)
2 – Kansas City (2)
3 – Seattle (1)
4 – Jacksonville (5)
5 – Minnesota (4)
6 – Denver (NR)
7 – Miami (NR)

Best Performances
Tom Brady (NE) – 31/40, 423 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 135.7 QB rating
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) – 20/33, 358 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 95.1 QB rating
Tony Romo (DAL) – 20/33, 345 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 116.4 QB rating
Andy Dalton (CIN) – 27/41, 332 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 107 QB rating

Adrian Peterson (MIN) – 120 yds rushing, 2 TDs, 21 yds receiving
Fred Jackson (BUF) – 117 yds rushing, 2 TDs, 23 yds receiving
Michael Turner (ATL) – 114 yds rushing,1 TD, 32 yds receiving

Jeremy Maclin (PHI) – 13 receptions, 171 yds, 2 TDs
Vincent Jackson (SD) – 10 receptions, 172 yds, 2 TDs
Miles Austin (DAL) – 9 receptions, 143 yds, 3 TDs
Kenny Britt (TEN) – 9 receptions, 135 yds, 1 TD
Denarius Moore (OAK) – 5 receptions, 146 yds, 1 TD
AJ Green (CIN) – 10 receptions, 124 yds, 1 TD

Roman Harper (NO) – 7 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble
Morgan Burnett (GB) – 7 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 PD
Charles Woodson (GB) – 5 solo tackles, 2 INTs, 2 PD
Antonio Cromartie (NYJ) – 2 solo tackles, 2 INTs returned for 63 yds, 2 PD

Worst Performances
Luke McCown (JAX) – 6/19, 59 yds passing, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 1.8 QB rating
Matt Cassel (KC) – 15/22, 133 yds passing, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 44.5 QB rating
Joe Flacco (BAL) – 15/32, 197 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 51.2 QB rating

Marshawn Lynch (SEA) – 6 carries, 11 yds rushing, 1 catch for 1 yd
DeAngelo Williams (CAR) – 5 carries, 13 yds rushing, 23 yds receiving
Cadillac Williams (STL) – 13 carries, 36 yds rushing, 3 catches for 4 yds
Reggie Bush (MIA) – 6 carries, 18 yds rushing, 1 catch for 3 yds

Antonio Gates (SD) – 1 target, 0 catches
Mike Thomas (JAX) – 10 targets, 3 catches, 29 yds
DeSean Jackson (PHI) – 3 targets, 2 catches, 21 yds
Vernon Davis (SF) – 2 targets, 2 catches, 18 yds
Donald Driver (GB) – 1 target, 1 catch, 10 yds
Plaxico Burress (NYJ) – 2 targets, 0 catches
Mike Williams (TB) – 1 catch, -4 yds