1) New Orleans
Saints
For Saints fans, the best thing about the ’12 season is that
it’s over. Bountygate cost New Orleans money,
reputation, and probably most importantly, their head coach. They started the season 0-4 and never
recovered. Flip the calendar, and Sean Payton is back on the sidelines. Will they pick up where they left off last
year or, preferably, where they did in ’11?
Drew Brees was still Drew Brees, but even a QB of his
caliber suffers when losing a coach with an offensive mind like Payton’s. Brees attempted the most passes in his career
last season but finished 300 yards shy of his previous year’s total. Still, that was good enough for him to lead
the league in yardage for the second straight season. He’ll do it a third time this year, and I
think the primary beneficiary will be Jimmy Graham. Brees’ tight end is fully healed from the
wrist injury that bothered him all of last year, and I believe he’ll break the
100 catch barrier for the first time in his career. Marques Colston has been one of the more
consistently productive receivers in the league over the last three seasons,
and the other starter, Lance Moore, is probably the guy Brees trusts most. Darren Sproles remains one of the game’s more
explosive players and the perfect back for this offense. When the Saints run the ball Mark Ingram
figures to get most of the totes. Even
though this is a pass-heavy offense, Ingram has to be considered a huge
disappointment so far through two seasons.
Numbers aside, there hasn’t been anything that screams “special” about
his game. The Saints keep trying to
phase Pierre Thomas out, but he continues to be their best rusher.
Big yardage isn’t a good thing on the defensive side of the
ball, but the Saints defense surrendered a league record 7,042 of them last
season. They were consistent though – 32nd
against the run and 31st against the pass. Enter Rob Ryan. The former Cowboy coordinator is already
starting in the hole. Their lone
addition to a poor pass rush, Victor Butler, is already lost for the season
with a torn ACL suffered in June, and Will Smith went down with the same malady
in the preseason. That leaves Junior
Galette and Martez Wilson as the only remaining rushers, and they’re both
inexperienced. Will the coaching change
work wonders for last year’s free agent disappointments Curtis Lofton and David
Hawthorne? Neither was productive, let
alone impactful. Cameron Jordan is their
most talented defensive player, and he should enjoy the scheme switch, as he’ll
revert back to the position he played at Cal. I like Akiem Hicks at the other spot and
think he’ll stand out this season.
Obvious changes were needed in the secondary, and the Saints made two of
them. Cornerback Keenan Lewis was signed
in free agency. He’ll line up opposite
Jabari Greer which gives them a nice starting pair but still little to no
depth. They’ll look to remedy that by
having their three safeties on the field at the same time as much as
possible. Roman Harper and the
disappointing Malcolm Jenkins remain the starters, but first round pick Kenny
Vaccaro will see a lot of action, especially in the slot.
While this is still a bad defense, they will be better than
last year’s record setters. They also
have their offensive mastermind back and begin the season with stability that
was sorely missing a year ago. No one
has repeated in this division (bad news Falcons fans), and I’m not projecting
that to change this season.
MVP – Drew Brees
Breakout – Junior Galette
Disappointment – Mark Ingram
2) Atlanta
Falcons
Three straight trips to the postseason. One total playoff win. Last year the Falcons finished with the
conference’s best record but were unable to hold on at home against the Niners
in the NFC title game. Will they be
better closers this year?
Matt Ryan experienced a breakthrough last season, embracing
Dirk Koetter’s offense en route to being the league’s most efficient QB in
’12. He established career highs in all
prominent passing categories and has excellent chemistry with his two stud
receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones, who in my opinion form the most
dangerous starting receiver duo in the league.
No other team in league boasts two receivers with their ability. White remains probably the least hyped top
receiver in the game, and Jones had his best game in the conference
championship against the Niners (11 catches for 182 yards and 2 TDs). Tony Gonzalez returns for what he promises
will be his final season. He’s still
playing at an elite level, finishing second and third in receptions and
yardage, respectively, for tight ends.
The Michael Turner era is over, and in his place is the Falcons’ key
offseason acquisition, Steven Jackson.
The former Ram rusher gives Atlanta
a more respectable backfield threat than they’ve lined up with in recent years
and, in my opinion, is the best back they’ve had since Warrick Dunn. I don’t think we’re going to suddenly see a
balanced offense from the Falcons, but Jackson
is a much more dynamic and threatening back than was Turner.
Atlanta
had one of the best points per game defenses in the league last year, but their
inability to consistently get to the passer is a big reason they didn’t reach
the big game. No other playoff team had
less sacks (29) than did the Falcons, and I’m not sure they did enough to get
better there this offseason. Osi
Umenyiora lands in Atlanta
where he’ll be expected to replace John Abraham, but I’ve got to think that’s a
step back. Kroy Biermann is the only
other end on the roster that registered a sack last year, which means they’ll
definitely need their young guys to step up.
Jonathan Babineaux remains their best interior presence, and I think
they’ll miss Vance Walker more than they expect to. They have a similar situation at
linebacker. Sean Weatherspoon has been
their best linebacker but isn’t a tremendous playmaker. Akeem Dent and Stephen Nicholas, the two
other starters, are replaceable. They
could struggle a bit early in the secondary.
They open at New Orleans
and play the Rams, Dolphins, and Patriots in their next three games. Drew Brees and Tom Brady remain game greats,
and both the Rams and Dolphins figure to pass more this year than last. Asante Samuel still racks up interceptions,
but Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson, the other veteran corners, left via free
agency. I like Desmond Trufant to be an
impact player eventually, but both he and third corner Robert Alford are rookies. Strong safety William Moore had his best year
as a pro in his first under DC Mike Nolan, and Thomas DeCoud makes his biggest impact
against the run.
I go back to the fact that no one has ever repeated in this
division. The Falcons should be even
better on offense this year, but I really have concerns about their
defense. Will their pass rush be any
better? Will the secondary survive the
early stretch of the schedule? I think
the Falcons make it back to the playoffs but won’t enjoy the bye week luxury
this time around.
MVP – Matt Ryan
Breakout – Desmond Trufant
Disappointment – Osi Umenyiora
3) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers
A bad start and a worse finish took the luster off Greg
Schiano’s first season as head coach.
The Bucs were 1-3 out of the gates and ended up losing 5 of their last
6. Care to guess what (or who) the
biggest reason for that piss poor play may be?
That’s right, Josh Freeman.
The drive-you-to-drink giant human being still struggles to consistently
complete more passes than he doesn’t. In
that late season collapse, Freeman failed to throw for at least 250 yards twice
and threw 4 INTs in two other games. GHB
enters the final year of his rookie contract, and the Bucs are wisely making
him play it out before getting a new deal.
Based on Schiano drafting Mike Glennon, the guy he recruited while at Rutgers, I wouldn’t start stretching out my signing hand
if I were Freeman. Doug Martin on the
other hand is quite the ray of sunshine.
All he did as a rookie was finish fifth in the league in rushing, score
12 total TDs, and catch 49 passes. He’s
not going to stop getting the ball, no matter who is at QB, and should have
even more room to run this year with both of his starting guards back on the
field. Davin Joseph is a year removed
from tearing up his knee, and Carl Nicks is active as well. Unfortunately, the latter is dealing with a
staph infection in the foot that caused him trouble last year, but the Bucs don’t
think it will be a major concern.
Vincent Jackson proved to worth the #1 money he received in free agency,
and Mike Williams earned himself an extension for being one of the more
consistent receivers in the game through his first three seasons as a pro. Kevin Ogletree was brought in to be the new
#3, but neither he nor Tiquan Underwood is terribly inspiring. I’m worried about tight end. Luke Stocker is being counted on as the
starter as he’s totaled a whopping 28 receptions in his two seasons with the
team. Tom Crabtree was a nice addition
in free agency, but he’s ideally a backup to someone better than Stocker and
suffered a high ankle sprain in the preseason finale.
They had the game’s best run defense and the game’s worst
pass defense in ‘12. What do you think
they did this offseason? For starters
(not chronologically) they acquired the guy considered the game’s best cover
man a year ago. Darrelle Revis was
brought in rather inexpensively and, if healed, gives the Bucs the shutdown
presence they desperately need at corner against the QBs in the division. With
Eric Wright validating his worthlessness, rookie Johnthan Banks will battle
last year’s undrafted jewel Leonard Johnson for the majority of the snaps
opposite the Island. They didn’t stop at cornerback. Free safety Dashon Goldson was another All
Pro acquisition. His ability to be a
factor in the back end of the defense, combined with a functional Revis should
free up Mark Barron to play closer (and more comfortably) to the line of scrimmage. Doug Martin wasn’t the only rookie to make
his mark. Lavonte David isn’t making
anyone forget Derrick Brooks just yet, but the first year WLB had arguably a
better season than did Defensive ROY, Luke Kuechly. David made a seamless transition to the pros,
leading the team in tackles (especially behind the line of scrimmage) and
making plays all over the field. I
continue to call for the end of the Mason Foster at MLB experiment, but he’s
back there again this season. Dekoda
Watson and free agent Jonathan Casillas look to log the most snaps at SLB. Just as I’m disappointed with the situation
at QB, I’m not happy with the direction at DE.
The Bucs chose to let Michael Bennett walk for cheap and not pursue any
of a number of free agent alternatives.
Adrian Clayborn is returning from a knee injury of his own, and Da’Quan
Bowers is currently front and center in Schiano’s dog house. If you look up “high effort” in the dictionary,
Bowers’ name appears in a list of antonyms.
When you consider their head scratching scheming and stunts up front
along with the lack of talented pass rushers, the secondary again be heavily
tested. Gerald McCoy had a Pro Bowl year
and should be on the verge of becoming one of the game’s best interior
players. Akeem Spence was brought in to
man the spot next to him and, like McCoy, is more of a penetrator than run
stuffing presence.
You can have all the talent in the world at other positions,
but you must have a top notch QB and be able to put consistent pressure on the opposing
QB on defense. Being
uncharacteristically non-cynical, I truly believe the Bucs will be relevant all
year and push for a playoff spot, but I think their lack of talent and
consistency in the areas mentioned above will be their demise.
MVP – Doug Martin
Breakout – Mark Barron
Disappointment – Da’Quan Bowers
4) Carolina
Panthers
It was a tale of two seasons for the boys in baby blue. A two INT loss at Tampa
kicked off a 2-8 start for the Panthers, but after a second loss to the Bucs
(their seventh loss in eight games) Carolina
rallied to win five of their last six, scoring 30 or more in four of those
games.
Can Cam avoid another bad
start? Will we see any more absurd press
conferences? Is the “me” behavior a
thing of the past? I think losing his
Rob Chudzinski to Cleveland is going to be a big
blow to Cam’s upside. Newton
is an obvious talent, but Chud’s vertical style maximized the QB’s
talents. Will he fare as well under Mike
Shula? Steve Smith is still their only
threat at wide receiver. The guy is a
tall 5-9 and 34 years old but continues to make big plays. Brandon LaFell is the other starter by default. Greg Olsen had a heck of a ’12 season, but
like Newton, I
think he’s going to feel the Chud loss.
How disappointing is their running game?
Let me rephrase that. How
disappointing are their running backs? Cam led the team with 741 yards on the ground,
but the much-hyped combo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart teamed up
for just over 1,000 total yards.
Williams hasn’t topped 1,000 yards on his own since ’09, and Stewart,
who played in only 9 games last season, is coming off ankle surgery this
offseason and starts the year on the PUP list.
I think the coaching change and lack of personnel upgrades is going to
make this the biggest test of Cam’s
career. Will he rise above like a
champion or mope like a chump?
At least they addressed part of the defense this
offseason. They doubled down Tampa Bay
style in the draft, selecting defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short
with their first two picks. I like both
of these guys and think they have a chance to wreak some havoc in the division. Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson are already
quite the tandem at end. Both reached
double digit sacks last year, but Hardy looks to be on the verge of big things. Luke Kuechly got better as the season went
along, winning the league’s honor for top defensive newcomer. While the tackles are nice, the Panthers need
more impact plays from Kuechly this season.
He did record 2 INTs, but Johnson had 7 forced fumbles compared to Kuechly’s
0. They’re good but fragile on the
outside. Jon Beason is no sure thing
after playing in only 5 games the last two years combined, and Thomas Davis is
only a year removed from being in a similar position. Here’s where it gets really ugly. Chris Gamble retired, leaving an even bigger
hole in a weak cornerback crop. Seeing Drayton
Florence and Captain Munnerlyn as starters should have Brees, Ryan, and even
Freeman licking their chops. They’re not
any better at safety. Charles Godfrey
isn’t very good, and the Raiders didn’t fight to keep Mike Mitchell.
Cam’s going to have to
score a lot because his defense is still going to give up a ton, and that’s not
a formula for consistent success. I see
another long year in Carolina
blue.
MVP – Cam Newton
Breakout – Greg Hardy
Disappointment – Jonathan Stewart
Division MVP – Drew Brees
Division Breakout – Mark Barron
Division Disappointment – Da’Quan Bowers
