Monday, July 2, 2012

2012 MLB All Stars - The REAL Team



This year’s All Star Game rosters have been announced, but I’d like to tell you what they really should look like.  I don’t take that silly guideline of every team needing representation into account, as my rosters are made up of the 68 most deserving players, regardless of team.

American League
(starters listed first)


Catcher
AJ Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia

None of the three catchers on the “real” team make mine.  Mike Napoli gets the fan vote, and Joe Mauer and Matt Wieters are the backups.  Far be it for me to defend the asshat that is AJ Pierzynski, but I don’t see how Wieters gets an invite over him; makes no sense.  Saltalamacchia has been huge for Boston.  I’d take him over Mauer and his high BA.

First Base
Paul Konerko and Prince Fielder

Prince gets the fan vote, but Konerko deserves the start and would deserve strong consideration for midway MVP if that award existed. 

Second Base
Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler

Cano is scary good.  He should win this vote for the next ten years.  Ian Kinsler made the team too, but I’d like to see how close it was between him and Jeff Kipnis.  

Shortstop
Derek Jeter and Asdrubal Cabrera

Jeter and Cabrera made the official squad as well, but I would have left Elvis Andrus off.  He’s deserving but was a numbers casualty on my team. 

Third Base
Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre

MLB got the players right, but I’d start Cabrera.  He leads the majors in hits with runners in scoring position. 

Outfield
Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, and Alex Rios

Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, and Bautista win the fan vote, but Granderson didn’t even make my team.  Yes, I see the 23 homers, but the guy is hitting .246, has 91 strikeouts, and has a lower OPS than Josh Reddick, another deserving player left off the official roster.  Trumbo and Trout deservingly made the team, and Trumbo starts for me.  He’s been that good.  Rios deserved to make the official team, and Austin Jackson could have had a legit beef had he not been sidelined for a short stretch. 

Designated Hitter
Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, and Billy Butler

Here’s my biggest gripe about the AL roster.  How in the hell does Adam Dunn make the team over Encarnacion?  Is it because he has a whopping 2 more homers?  Well he has 1 since June 15.  Did the voters see his 125 Ks as a plus?  What a joke. 

Starters
Chris Sale, Jered Weaver, CJ Wilson, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, David Price, Matt Harrison, Jason Hammel, Yu Darvish

Weaver’s no-no earns him the start over Sale.  If I’m slotting pitchers, I’d run Weaver and Sale out there for two innings each, follow with Verlander, Price, and Darvish for the next two, and then go to the pen.  Felix Hernandez is the only starter on the official squad that I didn’t choose.  Yes, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, but he’s just not gotten it done on the field this year.  That matters.  Hammel deserves to make the team, and Darvish’s fate shouldn’t be coming down to a fan vote.

Relievers
Fernando Rodney, Chris Perez, Jim Johnson, Joe Nathan, Rafael Soriano, Scott Downs

Ryan Cook is having a nice year, but I think he’s on the team due to the ‘every team represented’ requirement.  Rodney has had a heck of a season, and Soriano should be recognized for the work he’s done in both Mariano Rivera’s and David Robertson’s absence.  Downs has played both the closer and set up roles to near perfection this season.  I have plenty of pitching on this team, but Downs is more of an All Star to me than Curtis Granderson. 


National League


Catcher
Carlos Ruiz, Buster Posey, and Yadier Molina

No gripes here.  All three made the official team. 

First Base
Joey Votto

Brian LaHair doesn’t deserve to make the team, but he did out of positional necessity.  What I would do with my team is let Ruiz and Molina handle the catching duties which would allow Posey to serve as Votto’s backup at first base.

Second Base
Aaron Hill and Jose Altuve

Dan Uggla gets the fan vote but doesn’t belong on the team.  Hill has been the second best second sacker in baseball, and Altuve has been Houston’s best player. 

Shortstop
Ian Desmond and Starlin Castro

Rafael Furcal was voted in, but I’d have him third on my list.  Desmond should be the starter, and as much as I’d like to omit Castro, he probably should be in Kansas City.

Third Base
David Wright and David Freese

Pablo Sandoval is one example why the fans shouldn’t vote for the starters.  Let the fan vote get a player on the team, but since this game truly counts for something, allow the managers to determine who starts.  Wright should be the starter, and it’s not even remotely debatable.

Outfield
Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Braun, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Michael Bourn

Matt Kemp was voted in, but he won’t (and shouldn’t) play.  McCutchen should and probably will draw the start in his place.  Somehow Jay Bruce made the team over Bourn and Hunter Pence.  Someone please make that make sense for me.  I take Bourn over Pence to give me a late game pinch runner option.  In a close game I’d like to have this guy on the bases. 

Starters
R.A. Dickey, Johnny Cueto, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Wade Miley, James McDonald, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Gio Gonzalez, Cole Hamels, AJ Burnett

Seriously, Cueto isn’t an All Star???  In what universe is that true?  That’s the biggest All Star roster screw up.  McDonald doesn’t make the team either?  I understand there are tough calls every year, but come on.  No Vogelsong?  Greinke anyone?  This is ridiculous.  Chris Capuano probably deserved to make the team more than Clayton Kershaw.  If I wanted to win I’d probably let Dickey pitch the whole game, but since it’s somewhat of an exhibition, after he goes two, I’d turn to Strasburg, Hamels, Cueto, Gonzalez, and Cain to get me to the late innings.  

Relievers
Craig Kimbrel, Santiago Casilla, Joel Hanrahan, Tyler Clippard, and Aroldis Chapman

I’d have loved to put Huston Street on the team, but the other guys were more deserving in my opinion.  Jonathan Papelbon should have taken a back seat to all of these guys. 


My Lineups

AL
1) Derek Jeter
2) Robinson Cano
3) Josh Hamilton
4) Paul Konerko
5) Miguel Cabrera
6) Mark Trumbo
7) Adam Jones
8) Edwin Encarnacion
9) AJ Pierzynski

SP – Jered Weaver
9th inning – Fernando Rodney


NL
1) Andrew McCutchen
2) David Wright
3) Joey Votto
4) Ryan Braun
5) Carlos Beltran
6) Carlos Gonzalez (DH)
7) Carlos Ruiz
8) Aaron Hill
9) Ian Desmond

SP – R.A. Dickey
9th inning – Craig Kimbrel


Most Deserving Omissions
AL – Josh Willingham
NL – Huston Street

Willingham really earned an All Star selection, but I just ran out of spots.  It would be either him or Alex Rios, and I feel Rios is more deserving.  Street has been one of the best closers in baseball this year, but, through no fault of his own, he just hasn’t had enough opportunities.  The closers I took have all faced more stressful and meaningful 9th innings this year.  

Wait Until Next Year
AL – Ernesto Frieri
NL – Paul Goldschmidt

You could argue that Frieri should be on this year’s squad.  He’s been electric in his time as closer, but I felt his teammate, Scott Downs, was just slightly more deserving of the honor.  I think Goldschmidt will be the NL’s second best first baseman this time next year, and if that pans out, he’ll be a member of this team for the foreseeable future.




Sunday, July 1, 2012

MLB - NL Division Races


NL East


Wow.  The NL East has to be the most surprising division in baseball.  Sitting on top of the heap are the Washington Nationals thanks in large part to the major’s best pitching staff.  The top three arms in their rotation, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmerman, each has a sub-3.00 ERA.  The bullpen has a solid threesome of its own in Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen, and Sean Burnett.  Clippard has filled in more than admirably in closer Drew Storen’s absence.  They’re doing everything right in the pitching department, and they might need to keep it up in order to remain on top considering they have one of the game’s weaker offenses.  Bryce Harper didn’t have to wait long to get the call, and he’s been putting up his share of highlights in the first half, most notably his hustle doubles.  He’s well on his way to winning ROY honors.  Ian Desmond doesn’t get talked about much, but he’s one of the better all-round SS in baseball.  Ryan Zimmerman has been dealing with a shoulder issue since April but is starting to put together a Zimmerman-like hitting streak.  As a fan without a vested interest in this division, it’s hard to not root for these guys.

The Nationals are in first place, but the Mets are the most pleasant surprise in the division.  Picked by most to finish last again, the Mets are currently six games over .500 and finally notched a no-hitter for the franchise when Johan Santana stifled the Cardinals June 1.  David Wright led baseball in hitting for a good stretch of the first half, but the rest of the offense is more clutch than consistent when it comes to hitting.  R.A. Dickey is one of the best stories of this first half.  He threw two near no-hitters in back-to-back games and gave up zero earned runs for five straight starts.  Can Wright continue carrying a limited offense?  Can Dickey and Santana continue carrying a mediocre starting staff and shaky bullpen? 

Atlanta’s lying in the weeds within reach of first place.  Chipper Jones is taking the farewell tour, and Jason Heyward is doing a good job trying to establish himself as the next Mr. Brave.  Michael Bourn is having a great year and is providing some pop (7 homers) from the leadoff spot.  Unfortunately, first half ace (and Cy Young candidate) Brandon Beachy is now out for the year and facing Tommy John surgery.  Tommy Hanson sill looks like a 1a starter rather than a #1, but they’re getting great stuff from the soon to be 37 Tim Hudson.  Craig Kimbrel has only faltered once in 23 save opportunities and makes nearly every game an 8 inning affair.

The division’s Jekyll and Hyde resides in Miami.  The Marlins were baseball’s best team in May but were its most awful in June.  They’re the fourth worst hitting team in the game and aren’t getting much from their big dollar duo of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.  Giancarlo Stanton is the lone bright spot, but he did nearly all of his damage in a huge May.  The pitching hasn’t been there.  Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, and Anibal Sanchez all have losing records and ERAs over 3.50.  Josh Johnson is looking good of late though, but there’s just not enough around him.  And oh my is it painful to watch Heath Bell attempt to close games.

Bringing up the rear are the shocking last place Phillies.  They’ve looked really anemic offensively without Ryan Howard and, until recently, Chase Utley.  Cliff Lee doesn’t have a single win through the first three months of the season, and Roy Halladay has been out with a shoulder injury since late May.  It’s going to take a hell of a lot of magic to make them relevant in the second half. 

Most Impressive Team – Washington Nationals
Most Impressive Player – R.A. Dickey

Most Disappointing Team – Philadelphia Phillies
Most Disappointing Player – Cliff Lee


NL Central


I see the Central as a three team race the rest of the way.  The team sitting on top of the division is the Cincinnati Reds, and through no coincidence, Joey Votto is well on his way to winning his second MVP in three seasons.  He’s among the league leaders in all offensive categories except steals and is the rock in the middle of a lineup with some pop.  Brandon Phillips heats up with the weather, and Jay Bruce is tied for third in the NL in homers.  June has been Ryan Ludwick’s best month, but if they were able to upgrade over him in left field, they might put some distance between them and the rest of the division.  Johnny Cueto is having a great year and would be among the top vote getters for the half way Cy Young, but the second half of that desired deadly 1-2 combo, Mat Latos, hasn’t delivered as hoped.  He’s 24th in the NL in K’s, but only two players rated higher than him have a higher ERA (Lincecum and Samardzija).  He’s doesn’t look like a playoff #2 at the moment, but maybe Mike Leake is.  Leake doesn’t have the Ws to show for it, but he’s been dominant in June.  We know he has the stuff, but can he maintain it this year?  Aroldis Champan was unhittable in April and May, so despite the recent hiccups, he’s still one of the game’s elite closers.  I still see the Reds winning this division.

Pittsburgh is the Rodney Dangerfield of major league baseball.  They just don’t get any respect.  If Joey Votto doesn’t win the MVP, the award winner might still come from this division.  Andrew McCutchen is this team’s offense – hitting for power, average, and racking up double digit steals.  I think he’ll maintain, but can they keep posting wins when Pedro Alvarez can’t hit his weight and no other regular besides McCutchen is hitting at least .270.  McCutchen’s help comes from the hurlers.  Leading one of the game’s best staffs of the season is James McDonald.  The former Dodger has thrown like an elite #1 this year.  He has an impressive 7 wins, but he could easily have another 4.  The Pirates are 10-5 in games McDonald starts, and in 4 of those 5 losses, McDonald pitched a total 28 innings giving up 1 ER in each contest.  AJ Burnett has been awesome as well and has a great chance to earn his most wins since ’08.    Joel Hanrahan is on his way to a second straight All Star game.  Will the Pirates sink like last year?  They traded for hitting at last season’s deadline (Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick) and will likely need to do so again in order to hang in this thing.

Last year’s champs sit in third place and are weathering more than their fair share of injuries.  A significant knee injury has limited Lance Berkman to just 13 games, John Jay missed more than a month, Skip Schumaker was sidelined two weeks twice, Jaime Garcia may need shoulder surgery, and Chris Carpenter still hasn’t thrown a pitch this year.  The lineup still has plenty of pop.  Carlos Beltran has far surpassed his free agency expectations, and Allen Craig has been a great source of power.  In addition to his defensive excellence, Yadier Molina is getting it done again offensively.  Their pitching has been very unCardinal-like.  Adam Wainwright hasn’t completely turned the corner, and Lance Lynn seems to be falling back to earth after a huge start to the season.  Kyle Lohse has been their most efficient pitcher, but he’s never been a true stopper.  Despite the offensive output, they must get better pitching if they want to have a shot at defending their title.

The Brewers definitely miss Prince Fielder.  Ryan Braun has remained his typical MVP self despite the lack of adequate protection, but Aramis Ramirez isn’t making anyone forget Cecil’s son.  Corey Hart provides pop, but he’s not a consistent threat.  The biggest disappointment so far has been Rickie Weeks.  The All Star second baseman has more strikeouts than total bases and is hitting well below .200.  Zack Greinke is a stud.  He just doesn’t lose at Miller Park, despite its reputation as a hitter friendly stadium.  If the Brewers decide to deal the impending free agent, the Dodgers better race to the phone.  Yovani Gallardo has slipped, Shaun Marcum is dealing with an elbow issue, and Randy Wolf is just about done.  John Axford makes Heath Bell look stable, and Francisco Rodriguez is still pouting because he’s not a closer.  The Brewers don’t have the firepower to make a run.

Houston’s remaining goal is to stay ahead of Chicago and out of last place.  Jose Altuve has been the bright spot offensively, as the diminutive second baseman leads the team in batting average, total bases, and on base percentage.  The pitching is worse.  Lucas Harrell has been somewhat entertaining to watch, but none of them strikes fear in an opposing lineup. 

The Cubs are probably the worst team in baseball.  Anyone worth a darn not named Rizzo or Castro will likely be dealt in the next month.  That includes Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, and Brian LaHair.  Sarlin Castro still hasn’t figured out what it takes mentally to be a star, and Carlos Marmol might be the worst closer in baseball.

Most Impressive Team – Pittsburgh Pirates
Most Impressive Player – Andrew McCutchen

Most Disappointing Team – Milwaukee Brewers
Most Disappointing Player – Rickie Weeks


NL West


When trying to pinpoint the keys to San Francisco’s success this season, you’ve got to start with the pitching.  Individual players stepping up started early in the year when the Beard went down with an elbow injury that forced him to undergo his second Tommy John surgery.  In his stead, Santiago Casilla has racked up over 20 first half saves, giving him the third highest save total in the majors.  Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Madison Bumgarner are all worthy of All Star invites.  Cain threw a perfect game and owns a sub-1.00 WHIP, Vogelsong owns the league’s 4th best ERA, and Bumgarner has racked up 10 wins.  Don’t look now, but Tim Lincecum seems to be finally getting it together, so that would be four studs in a rotation backed by an improved offense.  Buster Posey may be the franchise player, but Melky Cabrera is having a better year thus far.  Cabrera is showing that last year’s career year was no fluke, as he’s among baseball’s best hitters with a .350 average.  Angel Pagan has been a fine acquisition in center field, and Pablo Sandoval is just getting back into action after undergoing hand surgery.  When you’ve got pitching, you can weather batting slumps, but when you’ve got this kind of pitching, it’s almost unfair.  I don’t think they’ll run off and hide with the division lead, but they’re definitely in it for the long haul. 

After owning baseball’s best record for a good stretch of the early season, the Dodgers have sputtered of late, giving up that designation as well as their hold on the division lead.  You don’t have to look far to figure out why.  Stud center fielder Matt Kemp has missed a large part of the first half with a hamstring injury, and there’s perhaps no other player in baseball who has such a direct impact on his team’s performance than Kemp.  This team resembled the historic ’88 squad in that aside from Kemp (Kirk Gibson) the offense is without any real superstar talents and gets its wins on the strength of its pitching and various role players stepping up in key moments.  Without Kemp and now Andre Ethier (oblique) this is really a toothless lineup.  Unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll be able to fix enough of the offensive holes in-season to make a championship run.  Their pitching was a huge strength early on, but Ted Lilly has been dealing with shoulder inflammation, Chad Billingsley peaked four years ago, and Aaron Harang is starting to pitch like Aaron Harang.  Even Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been his dominant self.  The reigning Cy Young has a pedestrian 5-4 record through 16 starts and had only one dominant outing in his last six trips to the hill.  I expect the ownership to put this team in the best position to be as competitive as possible, but I’m not sure it will matter unless Kemp gets back real quick. 

I was high on the Diamondbacks in the preseason, and despite their third place positioning, I still think they’ll be the team to reckon with come October.  They got nothing from Justin Upton over the first two months, played without Chris Young for a long stretch and Stephen Drew even longer, and have had some very inconsistent pitching from their starters.  Still, they sit just a handful of games outside of first place.  Upton has had a hot June, but their three most dangerous offensive players have been Aaron Hill, Jason Kubel, and Paul Goldschmidt.  Hill has hit for the cycle twice this year, and only Robinson Cano has been a more productive second sacker.  Kubel has been a very consistent producer and looks to be making a run at topping his career year numbers from ’09.  Goldschmidt is tied with Hill and Kubel for the team lead in homers but has 54 less ABs than Hill and 37 less than Kubel.  He’s also 8th in the majors in total bases for first basemen despite not having been an every day player.  The key to whether or not they can repeat as division champs will be their second half pitching, more specifically, ace Ian Kennedy who has looked anything but this season.  He posted a 2.88 ERA last year but hasn’t seen 3.00 since April 12.  Daniel Hudson is lost for the year with an elbow injury, and both Trevor Cahill and Joe Saunders have been too inconsistent.  Wade Miley has been a real bright spot, and phenom Trevor Bauer just got the call. Still, a second half Kennedy rebound is key. 

Not a lot of good things going on in Colorado.  Troy Tulowitzki will miss at least a decent chunk of the second half after undergoing groin surgery.  Carlos Gonzalez still looks like one of the best players in the game, but the pitching has been awful.  Jim Tracy is getting a lot of heat for his new ‘6 man 75 pitch limit’ rotation.  Aside from youngster Derw Pomeranz, there isn’t a starter on that team I’d want taking the ball for my team.

The Padres are expectedly awful.  Houston Street has been awesome, but it’s hard to earn saves when your team doesn’t often have the lead.  No starter has 6 wins, and no hitter has 10 homers.  Whole lot of nothing going on in San Diego. 

Most Impressive Team – Los Angeles Dodgers
Most Impressive Player – Melky Cabrera

Most Disappointing Team – Arizona Diamondbacks
Most Disappointing Player – Justin Upton

Thursday, June 28, 2012

MLB - AL Division Races


AL East


After a quiet start the Yankees have climbed to the top of the division due in large part to a recent 10 game win streak and by taking 14 of their first 16 June contests.  Curtis Granderson has paced the offense with 21 homers and 40 RBI, and Mr. Yankee Derek Jeter is experience a resurgence, bouncing back after two down seasons.  CC Sabathia is still the team’s ace, but he’s not been as sharp.  Yes he’s 9-3, but he’s getting hit too much and doesn’t look like the dominant CC we’ve seen in this past.  Ivan Nova has shined in June and matches CC’s 9 wins.  Andy Pettitte returned and has looked both like his old self and a guy who hasn’t pitched in over a year.  Phil Hughes still hasn’t found it, and they don’t score often for Hiroki Kuroda.  Despite losing Mariano Rivera to that freak knee injury and David Robertson to an oblique issue, the bullpen has held it together, most notably Rafael Soriano who has switched successfully between closer and set up roles.  He’s better off in the closer role where he shined for the Rays.  Due to their reliance on the long ball, their inability to hit with runners in scoring position, and the fact that both CC and Pettitte just went on the DL, the Yankees aren’t likely to run away with this thing.   

Baltimore has been one of the league’s biggest surprises this year.  Leading that list of surprises are pitchers Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen, both owners of 7 pitching victories thus far.  The former got knocked around with regularity as a Rockie, and the latter was an unheralded Japanese acquisition.  Easily the best player on the team is Adam Jones.  The young stud leads the team in all offensive categories, and with a recently signed long term deal in his back pocket, he should be playing stress-free as he continues growing into one of the game’s best talents.

The Rays are hanging in there with what seems like a smoke and mirrors act in Evan Longoria’s absence.  There isn’t a scary bat in that lineup, and after holding the division lead for a bit they’re falling several games back of the Yankees.  Longoria can’t come back soon enough.  Joe Maddon is one of the game’s best managers, but he can’t limit the uncharacteristically high number of errors his team has made.  I still think they’re a better team without BJ Upton (his defensive lapses rival Alfonso Soriano’s), and they’ve got to get something from the talented but stuck in neutral Desmond Jennings.

Toronto is above .500, but they’re, again, in the wrong division.  Their pitchers are dropping like flies, and their swing for the fences approach isn’t conducive to many extensive winning streaks.

Bobby Valentine’s first year as the Sox skipper got off to an undesirably explosive start with the Kevin Youkilis drama.  I know Jacoby Ellsbury is a big loss, but these guys look old and unmotivated.  Dustin Pedroia and stud rookie Will Middlebrooks are the exceptions. 

Most Impressive
Team – Baltimore Orioles
Player – Adam Jones

Most Disappointing
Team – Boston Red Sox
Player – Adrian Gonzalez


AL Central


If you had told me in April that the White Sox would be leading the Central in late June I would have said you’re nuts.  Paul Konerko just keeps mashing baseballs.  He’s on pace for another 30+ homers and is currently second in the league in hitting.  Adding Kevin Youkilis was a solid move.  Third base has been a black hole since Robin Ventura left after the ’98 season, and I don’t expect Youkilis to keep his batting average near his weight.  While they have one of the game’s most efficient offenses, they can’t lean on their pitching as the have in years past.  Young ace-in-the-making Chris Sale is exceeding his lofty expectations with 8 wins and narrow 2.46 ERA that is only second in the AL to CJ Wilson’s 2.30.  Jake Peavy is healthy and productive.  He’s tallied 6 wins and his 0.97 WHIP trails only Jered Weaver’s 0.93 in the AL.  The most important player on this team may be Jose Quintana.  The young hurler has been extremely impressive in his short time, and if he can keep it up he just might be the #3 to get them to and throught he playoffs.  That was the good.  The ugly?  Gavin Floyd is getting shelled, John Danks was too before going out with the shoulder injury, and Phil Humber’s perfect game was an aberration.  They also have one of the league’s shakiest bullpens.  The Central is probably the most uncompetitive division in baseball, so they might have enough to hang in there until the end.

Cleveland has tasted first place as well, and Jason Kipinis is big reason the Indians have been contenders in the first half.  He trails only Robinson Cano for homers by a second baseman.  Of the top three teams, I have the hardest time seeing them hang in there.  Derek Lowe is fortunate to have 7 wins, and Ubaldo Jimenez can’t be counted on if he can’t keep his ERA south of 5.  Chris Perez can complain about the fans, but I don’t think the product will be worth cheering for as the season continues. 

Detroit hasn’t done much worth applauding.  Outside of Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Austin Jackson their lineup doesn’t frighten a high school pitcher.  Are Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young, and Jhonny Peralta going to provide any noticeable spike in offensive output?  Dominant outings have been the exception for Justin Verlander this year, so if he’s not lights out, the wins aren’t automatic.  Max Scherzer is as unreliable as they come, Rick Porcello is an innings filler, and Doug Fister has been too injured to make even the most minimal impact.  Neither the White Sox or Indians look like a team that can run away with this thing, but quite frankly, neither do the Tigers.

I find it surprising that the Royals are in 4th place in what has turned out to be another down year for the division.  Eric Hosmer’s awful start is the only reason people didn’t notice how unproductive Alex Gordon was.  The lone pitching bright spot is in the bullpen.  Jonathan Broxton is 4th in the league in saves, but the starters have 20 combined wins.  They’re only 5 out at the moment, but I don’t see them going on big run.

Minnesota has been one of the league’s best teams for a short stretch starting in late May, but the fact that they’re in last place in this division tells you how bad they were before the winning spree. 

Most Impressive Team – Chicago White Sox
Most Impressive Player – Chris Sale

Most Disappointing Team – Detroit Tigers
Most Disappointing Player – Eric Hosmer


AL West


They look like they can win pretty much every time they step on the field.  Josh Hamilton is once again one of the game’s offensive leaders, and there’s not an easy out in the lineup.  Yu Darvish is tied for the AL lead in wins with his teammate Matt Harrison and Tampa’s David Price, but his shaky starts against suspect teams are keeping him from owning the lead outright.  Colby Lewis has been hot as of late, but now both he and Harrison are sidelined with injuries.  Until going down, they were reasons the Rangers had been able to keep on trucking despite the injuries to Neftali Feliz and Alexi Ogando and the ineffectiveness of Derek Holland and Scott Feldman.  Their pitching has performed a lot better than I thought that would so far, but I still don’t see them running away from the Angels, especially if the injuries keep piling up.  Roy Oswalt is over the hill, and Justin Grimm isn’t ready to be part of the rotation.  . 

After digging themselves an early hole, the Angels have started putting heat on the Rangers, and Mike Trout is the primary reason for the surge.  The primo prospect has done it all for the Angels.  He’s the spark they’ve been missing and is the perfect table setter for big bats like Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo.  The former took forever to find his stroke but is now swinging the bat like they had hoped he would when handing him that huge contract.  If it weren’t for Trumbo and his offensive production, despite being shuffled all over the field defensively, the gap to Texas would be quite larger.  The pitching has been as advertised with the pleasant surprise of Ernesto Frieri as a lights out closer.  Jeff Weaver finally got a no-no after flirting several times in the past, and CJ Wilson is pitching as well as anyone right now.  I still believe they’ll finish first when all is said and done.

Oakland has played better than anticipated, but they still trail the Rangers by double digits.  Josh Reddick has taken well to the west coast, but it looks like they’ll again be playing for third place.

Seattle will have a hard time escaping the basement.

Most Impressive Team – Texas Rangers
Most Impressive Player – Mark Trumbo

Most Disappointing Team – Los Angeles Angels (for their slow start)
Most Disappointing Player – Albert Pujols

Saturday, May 12, 2012

2012 NFL Draft - Review of Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks



Now that was the most enjoyable Buccaneer draft I’ve witnessed in years.  GM Mark Dominik has (rightfully) been under fire for past draft selections and contracts issued, but surrounded with a few football minds in Greg Schiano, Butch Davis, Jimmy Raye, and Mike Sullivan, the Bucs have put together possibly the most impressive offseason in team history.  Sure the Bucs roster wasn’t exactly overflowing with premier talent prior to the March 13.  Most any addition would be an improvement, but they’ve added at least five instant impact players to a team previously having none. 

Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks were the highlights of free agency.  A limited offense was boosted by the additions of the game’s best guard and an upper echelon #1 receiver.  Josh Freeman, the former #1 pick entering year four, needs to show significant strides this season.  He hasn’t been surrounded with the offensive weapons like a lot of other QBs in the league, but after picking up Jackson as his go-to guy, there should be no excuses for not showing noticeable progress. 

Given the known weaknesses in the back seven of the defense, one had to figure the draft would be defense-heavy.  The defensive tackles make you hold your breath every time they get on the field, hoping they don’t get hurt, so bringing in Amobi Okoye was a solid move.  Speaking of injuries – Da’Quan Bowers just tore his Achilles and will miss the whole season if it was a complete tear.  After this, one has to wonder if he’ll ever be a productive pro.  Unfortunately, this injury happened after the draft, so the Bucs are left with a barren free agent market until/unless teams start making cuts later in camp.   That bad news aside, the Bucs have brought in at least five players, including free agent corner Eric Wright, who should make an impact this year on defense. 

Here’s my take on the talent the Bucs drafted and some of the moves made to acquire said talent.

Once the Browns made the move up to #3 to draft Trent Richardson and the Vikings took Matt Kalil at #4, word spread that the Bucs were looking to move down two spots with Jacksonville.  What later became obvious was that Morris Claiborne, the player everyone had Tampa Bay committed to, wasn’t the highest rated remaining player on their board.  When Dallas dealt up to #6 just ahead of Tampa and took the LSU cover man, many fans were upset that the Bucs supposedly missed out on their guy.  If they wanted Claiborne, they would have sat put and taken him at #5.  They wouldn’t have risked that trade with Jacksonville for just a 4th rounder if they really wanted Claiborne.  .

By moving down two spots to #7 the Bucs acquired a 4th round pick from the Jaguars, recouping a draft pick that was lost in last year’s draft to move up for Luke Stocker.  That 4th rounder proved vital as it later helped trigger two additional draft deals  Sure I would have liked to get more than a 4th rounder for that deal down, especially given what some other teams gave up to move up, but that’s not a big deal in my opinion.  The Bucs got the player they wanted and addressed a huge defensive need.

Mark Barron has been a premier player on an Alabama team loaded with future pros for the last three years.  As the QB of the Crimson Tide’s defense, Barron earned a reputation as an enforcer who combines plus play recognition with a willingness to inflict punishment and the playmaking ability to flip the field.  He’s a certain improvement over Sean Jones and gives the Bucs the most potential they’ve had at the position since John Lynch.  Speaking of the former All Pro, here’s what he had to say about Barron (quote from Tampa Bay Times):

"Now, that's what I'm talking about," Lynch wrote of Barron in his report. "This is a big-time game-changing football player. My own opinion (I know he's hot), is that if he slips and you see an opportunity to go get him, do. This is guy is a start and top-line right now. He will definitely impact a team.

"What do I like so much? Everything. He sees things well. He recognizes and reacts quickly. He has very good athletic ability. He tackles well in space. He demonstrates great ball skills.

"In addition, he's nasty. He finishes, and he finishes violently."

Barron was a pleasant draft day curveball and will become a Buccaneer fan favorite in no time.  As Mike Mayock said – the guy’s ceiling is his floor; an All Pro safety.  There was little to no risk in making the pick.  Barron gives Coach Schiano his defensive leader; a player the team will hopefully be leaning on for the rest of the decade. 

Pick Grade – 10 out of 10
Not only did they land a premier talent, but they recouped a lost 4th round pick in the process. 


Needless to say, I was thrilled when the Bucs moved back into the 1st round to make their second selection of day one.  When the trade was announced I was vociferously hoping that Doug Martin was their target, and in a few short minutes, it was revealed that the Boise State back was indeed the next new Buccaneer.  I mentioned my preference for Martin in my offseason preview and had him as the clear #2 back in the draft. 

For the second time in two picks, the Buccaneers score big in an area they sorely lack.  Martin is the complete primary ball carrier the offense was missing.  Sucker Punch was the Bucs #1 guy last year, but his shortcomings are clear.  He doesn’t run hard for a back his size, he can’t catch, and won’t block.  Martin doesn’t give them a compliment to SP.  He makes SP the compliment; a move that had to be made for this offense to reach its potential.  I also love the karma that he’s being replaced by a Boise State Bronco. 

Martin gives Coach Schiano his Ray Rice 2.0; a strong compact runner able to make positive yards both inside and on the edge.  Not only is Martin a noticeable upgrade over SP as a runner, he’s already a solid pass catcher and well ahead of the rookie curve as a pass blocker.  He doesn’t make negative plays and has the potential to be one of the game’s more consistent and productive backs for the foreseeable future. 

Pick Grade – 10 out of 10
Making the move to #31 only cost the Bucs their second rounder and an exchange of 4th rounders.  Well done.  To me the gap between Martin and the next back in the draft from a complete ball carrier prospective was wide.  The Bucs did well to make sure they got their man.


Alright, now you’ve got me excited.  After landing the draft’s premier safety and #2 back, filling huge needs, the Bucs dealt back into the 2nd round and addressed their greatest remaining need by drafting WLB Lavonte David with the 58th overall pick.  To make the move, the Bucs surrendered their 3rd and 4th round selections; another inexpensive trade pulled off by the Bucs.  I was very pleased that they did not surrender any future picks in the process. 

The Bucs linebackers were awful last year.  I realize that Mason Foster was a rookie, but he looked absolutely overmatched far too often in the middle.  I still believe he’s best suited to play outside, but given the insane contract given to Quincy Black last year and the team’s lack of attention to the position in free agency, Foster’s likely spot appears to be MLB once again.  Geno Hayes’ play peaked long ago, and he couldn’t hold onto the starting WLB job.  The Bucs won’t lose any sleep over him joining the Bears, with or without David. 

I had David listed as their R2 pick in my mock, and the Bucs were able to get him 22 picks later than their original R2 draft spot.  David’s selection made the Bucs 3 for 3 in adding instant impact players.  He should step in as the WLB starter day one and give the Bucs a big upgrade at the position.  Instincts, physicality, and tackling technique are three of David’s better traits and were areas in which Hayes sorely lacked. 

(From Pewter Report)
“Guys that love the game, and everybody says they love it, but guys that live it – this guy (David) lives it,” Schiano said. “You have to kick him out of the facility, he trains, he’s all about football – those guys are generally – I’ve never had one that wasn’t tough. That’s so important to them so they’re going to do whatever it takes to win that football game. That’s what I mean when you talk about these three guys (Mark Barron, Doug Martin and David).”

Pick Grade – 9 out of 9
Bravo Buccaneers!  David’s a solid upgrade to a weak linebacker unit and fits Coach Schiano’s description of Buccaneer men.  


After taking two rounds off, the Bucs went back to the linebacker well, selecting the versatile Najee Goode from West Virginia.  Goode not only gave the Mountaineers a huge boost by successfully manning multiple positions.  He also raised his draft stock in the process.

Goode may already be the stoutest linebacker on the roster; a non-hesitant force against the run.  He’s more of a hitter than a tackler at this point, but given his reputation as a hard working leader at the collegiate level, I’m sure dedication to improving his technique as a professional won’t be an issue. 

I see him as a MLB, SLB, and special teams player for the Bucs, and there’s plenty of room for a guy like that on this defense.  Goode is a guy with a lot of confidence, and if his ceiling is a slightly better Adam Hayward, he was well worth a 5th round pick.

Pick Grade – 4.75 out of 6
Nothing against Goode, but I would have taken Zebrie Sanders or one of the remaining corners (Josh Norman, Ryan Steed, Asa Jackson) with this pick.  I’d have a hard time passing up a versatile lineman with Sanders’ potential this late in the draft.    


Here’s the guy that might intrigue me the most from this Buccaneer draft class.  I mentioned Keith Tandy on BucsChat.com prior to the start of draft day two as my top remaining free safety prospect.  Yes, Tandy was a corner at West Virginia, but knowing a little more about what the Bucs plan on doing in the secondary, I really think his skill set would translate well at free safety. 

He’s a tough SOB with a proven ability to get to the football whether it be via the ground or air.  I like him moving forward and pursing the football more than I do watching him in coverage.  The Bucs apparently intend to start him out at corner, and with the Bucs now going public about moving Ronde Barber to safety, Tandy might have a shot at landing that nickel job. 

Tandy exhibits similarities to Barber, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bucs have him shadowing the veteran quite regularly this season.  On a “cool” note, it’s worth mentioning that not only were Tandy and previous pick Goode teammates at West Virginia, they were roommates as well. 

Pick Grade – 5 out of 5
At worst, he’s an improvement over EJ Biggers and Myron Lewis at corner.  At best, he’s the team’s free safety of the future. 


Obviously the new coaching staff wasn’t happy with what it had at the RB position.  While this pick took me by surprise, it has the potential to be the strongest 7th round picks this team’s made in years. Smith is mostly an unknown due to playing behind Robert Turbin at Utah State, but what is known is that he possesses speed that did not previously exist on the Buccaneer roster. 

Smith has a track background and is a guy who can take it to the house given the narrowest of openings.  Working in his favor is the fact that he’s a solidly compact 5-8, 207 and runs much stronger than most backs his size.  He has a lot of potential as a 3rd down back, both as a runner and receiver.  I expect the Buccaneers to try and exploit defensive mismatches with Smith in the passing game because you don’t keep that speed on the bench. 

Pick Grade – 3.75 out of 4
There were a couple other players I would have preferred, but given what’s known about this guy, it’s hard not to love the pick.  Don’t be surprised if he’s eventually stealing Sucker Punch’s snaps. 


I won’t spend much time on this pick given that I know nothing about the guy.  Dunsmore appears to be an H-back type who won’t address the need for a blocking tight end.  He’s quick and has hands, so maybe he’ll develop as an intermediate weapon.

Pick Grade – 2 out of 4
There were several corners that went undrafted that I would have chosen in this spot.


Undrafted Free Agents
In addition to the huge haul in the draft, the Bucs may have landed a couple of free agent gems.  The two that stand out most are Leonard Johnson and Cody Johnson. 

Leonard was a CB from Iowa State who surprisingly went unselected.  His lack of timed speed was his biggest knock, but I’ll gladly take the guy who gave Justin Blackmon his biggest headache of the year.  He should have a good chance of making the team. 

Cody was brought in at FB and has only Eric Lorig blocking his spot atop the depth chart.  Cody needs to work on his lead blocking technique, but he’s an established ball carrier who could be a short yardage and red zone asset. 

Offensive linemen Bradley Sowell (Mississippi) and Desmond Wynn (Rutgers) are two guys who could see the practice squad if they don’t sneak onto the back end of the roster. 


Overall Grade = A
(44.50 / 48 = 93%)
Their first three picks are instant starters, and the next three should see significant snaps.  If the undrafted Johnsons make the roster, the Bucs would have done a tremendous job of addressing their weaknesses this offseason.  The last few months have gone about as well as any Bucs fan could have hoped for.  How it translates on the field is yet to be seen, but in a division that I believe is wide open this year, the Bucs have put themselves in position to make some noise.  



Sunday, April 22, 2012

2012 NFL Draft - Mock 1.0



With the draft less than a week away, here is my first and likely only attempt at mocking the first 36 selections:

Round 1

1) Indianapolis Colts
This one’s been pretty set for a while now.  Andrew Luck is Indy’s attempt to make a quick return to glory in the post-Peyton era.
The pick – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)

2) Washington Redskins
Just about as much of a lock as Andrew Luck to Indy; Shanahan gets his athletic passer.
The pick – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)

3) Minnesota Vikings
There are reports/guesses that the Vikings pass on Matt Kalil here, but given their situation up front, they’d be fools to pass on the year’s lone elite blind side blocker.
The pick – Matt Kalil (T, USC)

4) Cleveland Browns
A few months ago I mentioned that my gut said Claiborne would be their guy.  Sure they have Joe Haden, but that doesn’t preclude you from drafting another lockdown corner, especially in this pass happy league and when you own 3 of the first 37 picks.  The Browns need a threat at receiver, but I don’t believe Justin Blackmon is worthy of the #4 pick.  Is the gap between him, Floyd, Wright, Randle, and Hill that wide?  All of those guys except Floyd have a good chance of being available when they pick again at #22.  Ok, so if you cross WR off the list, this comes down to the top two talents or the draft’s third best QB.  For me, if you don’t have a franchise QB, you should always be looking for one.  That doesn’t mean that you have to reach for a guy who’s more potential than production with the 4th pick in the draft though.  I don’t think they’re into Tannehill.  Claiborne or Richardson?  Richardson or Claiborne?  It’s a debate Bucs fans have had for months, and I truly believe it will be Cleveland’s debate as well.  You could argue that either one is the best available player at this point, and you wouldn’t be wrong.  Again, my gut says they’re going to value pairing an elite corner opposite Haden than they will a RB. 
The pick – Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Claiborne off the board, this selection is pretty automatic.  If the Browns do indeed take Richardson, I believe this pick is just as easily spent on Claiborne.  Richardson is exactly what the Bucs need in the backfield, and given their offseason attention to receiver and the offensive line, adding the (potentially) best back since Adrian Peterson is quite the cherry on top of this offseason upgrade.  Greg Schiano wants to control the game on the ground, and of the talent on the Bucs roster and the talent available in this year’s draft, Richardson gives him the best chance to do that. 
The pick – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)

6) Saint Louis Rams
I’m not in love with this pick; not feeling terribly confident about it.  If the draft plays out this way and they don’t move up for Claiborne or Richardson, I’m guessing Justin Blackmon would be their top choice.  I believe in Sam Bradford, and they definitely need to upgrade his receivers if he’s going to have a chance of reaching his potential. 
The pick – Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)

7) Jacksonville Jaguars
I think this year’s first “what the *#@!” pick will again come from the Jags.  Michael Floyd and Quinton Coples are often mocked here, but Gene Smith doesn’t fool around with off field stuff.  Stephon Gilmore’s stock is soaring and is being mentioned as an option here, but I’m going even further off the radar.  I think this guy will go a lot higher than most project him to, but no one has him as a top 10 pick.  The Jags pull off a huge shocker.
The pick – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)

8) Miami Dolphins
They may be able to hold tight and still get their guy.  That’s assuming Kansas City or Seattle doesn’t pull off a trade to leapfrog them. 
The pick – Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M)

9) Carolina Panthers
Defensive line looks to be the way they’ll go with this one, and I’m guessing they take the stud interior guy over the local end with a questionable motor. 
The pick – Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State)

10) Buffalo Bills
Riley Reiff gets slotted here in most mocks, but I really don’t think they’ll take him.  The offense made strides last year, but it needs a better #1 receiving option.  If Floyd isn’t the pick, I think they’ll take Luke Kuechly.
The pick – Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)

11) Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs haven’t exactly drafted by the book in recent years, and I expect that to continue here.  This guy is regarded as the best at his position, but it’s a position that usually doesn’t see its first player picked until quite a bit later in the first round. 
The pick – David DeCastro (G, Stanford)

12) Seattle Seahawks
I fully expect this pick to be a front seven defensive player.  They signed Barrett Ruud but don’t have any long term linebacker prospects aside from KJ Wright.  Would the failure that was Aaron Curry make them gun shy of spending another early pick on a LB?  There are plenty of pass rushers to choose from at this point, but I think they’ll take they guy who looks like the surest thing on the board.
The pick – Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College)

13) Arizona Cardinals
They have interest in Floyd, but he’s off the board here.  In this scenario I think it’s an offensive lineman or pass rusher.  They’re sticking with Kevin Kolb at QB, and he recently revealed how he struggled with concussion symptoms weeks into the offseason.  They need to upgrade his protection if they want to get anything at all from their seemingly failed investment.  This is as high as I see this guy going, and if Arizona passes on him, he might stay on the board another 10 picks.
The pick – Riley Reiff (T, Iowa)

14) Dallas Cowboys
Dontari Poe is being connected to the Cowboys quite a lot, but that just doesn’t seem to be the kind of move Jerry Jones would make.  Poe is far from a sure thing in my opinion.  They added Brandon Carr at corner, but they’re still searching for a Roy Williams-like presence on the back end of the defense.  Reading through all the smoke, I think this is their guy.
The pick – Mark Barron (S, Alabama)

15) Philadelphia Eagles
Even though they traded for DeMeco Ryans, I’d make Kuechly their pick if he was still available.  Since he’s not, I’m thinking either defensive line or cornerback.  Asante Samuel is as good as gone, and DRC is a free agent after the season.  Gilmore makes a ton of sense here, but I think they go in a different direction. 
The pick – Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)

16) New York Jets
Getting a pass rusher tops their list of needs, and the guy they reportedly want is still on the board.  I know he routinely gets mocked higher than this, but a ‘slide’ to 16 shouldn’t shock anyone.
The pick – Melvin Ingram (DE/OLB, South Carolina)

17) Cincinnati Bengals
If he falls this far, I don’t see him lasting any longer.  I mentioned this guy as my #1 choice for the Bucs at #36 if they don’t get Claiborne, but he’s the highest riser in this draft class, deserved or not.
The pick – Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina)

18) San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are still looking for a pass rusher, and I think they stay local in their pursuit. 
The pick – Nick Perry (DE/OLB, USC)

19) Chicago Bears
I think the Bears are focusing on a defensive lineman here and end up taking the top rated remaining tackle. 
The pick – Michael Brockers (DT, LSU)

20) Tennessee Titans
There’s a lot of talk of them taking a corner here with the loss of Cortland Finnegan, but I think they take a pass rusher, even with the addition of Kamerion Wimbley.    
The pick – Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois)

21) Cincinnati Bengals
With their second pick of the first round, the Bengals address the interior of the offensive line.
The pick – Cordy Glenn (G, Georgia)

22) Cleveland Browns
After taking Claiborne with the #4 pick, I expect the Browns to take the top RB or WR on their board.  The only other option I see here would be Brandon Weeden, but I’m not convinced they can’t get him at #37.  I think this guy is going to go a lot higher than most expect. 
The pick – Rueben Randle (WR, LSU)

23) Detroit Lions
The need is great at corner, and they’re getting solid value here. 
The pick – Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)

24) Pittsburgh Steelers
If I’m a Steeler fan, I’ve got to love this pick.  James Farrior’s exit creates a hole at ILB, and this guy is an ideal fit.
The pick – Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama)

25) Denver Broncos
I’ve got this one being either a DT or RB, and while there’s been more urgency buzz around DT, I think we see another slight surprise here. 
The pick – Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)

26) Houston Texans
To me the Texans are the next team on the verge of big things.  Whoever they take here could help determine if/when they get to the next level.  I’m looking WR or best available defensive player.  That offense could really take off if they had a serious threat opposite Andre Johnson, and this guy has that potential.
The pick – Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)

27) New England Patriots
The Patriots own two of the next five picks, and I’m looking for them to focus on OL, DL, OLB, and secondary.  Tom Brady isn’t going anywhere, but his blockers up front are beginning to. 
The pick – Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin)

28) Green Bay Packers
They reportedly have a lot of love for this guy, and I think he’d make a great addition opposite Clay Matthews. 
The pick – Shea McClellin (LB, Boise State)

29) Baltimore Ravens
Ben Grubbs’ departure leaves a hole at LG that can’t be filled suitably by any player on their roster.  This guy is a bit of an unknown but may very well be a day one selection.
The pick – Amini Silatolu (G, Midwestern State)

30) San Francisco 49ers
If the draft plays out this way I’d expect the Niners to try and deal down.  Coby Fleener might be an option, even with Vernon Davis, but if they stay put, I think they go in a different direction.  An offensive or defensive lineman might seem to be the bigger need, but even with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, the receiver position is certainly not “fixed”. 
The pick – Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) 

31) New England Patriots
After going DL with their first pick, the Patriots address the secondary.  This guy might be a bit of a surprise to go day one, but Bill Belichick has pulled off bigger shockers.
The pick – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)

32) New York Giants
They continue stockpiling defensive linemen and address interior depth with this selection. 
The pick – Devon Still (DT, Penn State)

Notable players not drafted in R1 –
Dontari Poe, Courtney Upshaw, Janoris Jenkins, Coby Fleener, Jerel Worthy, Jonathan Martin, Alshon Jeffery, and Mike Adams.


Round 2

33) Saint Louis Rams
If they stay here and make the first pick of day two, I think they’ll look into the remaining talent at DT.  This guy could easily go day one.
The pick – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)

34) Indianapolis Colts
If you’re going to build your franchise around Andrew Luck, why not provide him with his favorite collegiate target?
The pick – Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)

35) Minnesota Vikings
I’ve got the Vikings choosing between two big question marks here.  Janoris Jenkins’ slide continues.
The pick – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)

36) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If the Bucs get Richardson at #4, that leaves CB and LB as the two positions needing the most urgent attention, and given how I see the draft playing out, the best value at CB is in R1 and R3.  Gilmore and Kirkpatrick will go in R1, and I can’t see the Bucs drafting Jenkins should he be there at #36.  Anyone else would be a big reach.  I’ve said that a R2 LB would be a reach as well, but given the sad state of affairs at the position, I think Tampa will target a LB or two and take one of them here if they can’t deal down.  That’s one reason I think it would be an even bigger get to nab Richardson at #4 – two large need areas knocked out with the first two picks.  Regardless of Claiborne or Richardson in R1, I think they’ll target a LB here.      

Seeing as how they’re apparently committed to Mason Foster as their MLB, I’d expect their focus to be on someone who can excel at WLB.  My three top early targets are Lavonte David (Nebraska), Mychal Kendricks (Cal), and Sean Spence (Miami), and only David really belongs in early R2 discussions. 

The pick – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska) 
Hard worker, solid tackler, and capable in coverage; should be able to step in at WLB from day 1.

I see pick #36 as a great chance for the Bucs to recoup that lost R4 pick.  If it plays out similarly to what I’ve projected, there will be a few front seven defenders, offensive linemen, and running backs that teams might be eager to move up for.  The Bucs could drop down a handful of picks and still get either David or Kendricks. 


Round 3

After drafting Richardson and David, I’d expect the Bucs to zero in on a corner in R3. 
Alfonzo Dennard, Jamell Fleming, Brandon Boykin, and Trumaine Johnson are possibilities in that range, but Dennard’s recent (and horrifically stupid) arrest will likely cost him at least a round. 

The pick – Jamell Fleming (CB, Oklahoma) 
Well rounded corner who doesn’t wilt in the box; lacks elite athleticism but has the skills and toughness to be a solid NFL starter.

If the Bucs get Claiborne instead of Richardson in R1, I’d love to see this pick spent on RB Isaiah Pead if he’s still available.


Remaining Rounds

If the Bucs can acquire a RB, LB, and CB with their first three picks, I’d like to see them finish it out by taking the best available talent with an eye towards the secondary, tight end, defensive line, and offensive tackle. 

Round 4

I realize the Bucs are without a 4th round pick due to their trading up in last year’s draft to acquire Luke Stocker, but by chance they make a move to acquire a selection in the round, here are my targets:

Omar Bolden (CB, Arizona State)
Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma)
Brandon Taylor (S, LSU)
TY Hilton (WR, FIU)
Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State)
Brandon Mosley (T, Auburn)
Keenan Robinson (LB, Texas)

The pick – Brandon Taylor (S, LSU)
An underrated prospect, Taylor was the enforcer at the back end of the Tigers very skilled secondary. 


Round 5

The targets:
Evan Rodriguez (FB/TE, Temple)
Asa Jackson (CB, Cal-Poly)
Josh Norman (CB, Coastal Carolina)
Ryan Steed (CB, Furman)
James Hanna (TE, Oklahoma)
Aaron Henry (FS, Wisconsin)
Ryan Lindley (QB, San Diego State)
Tom Compton (T, South Dakota)
Travis Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)

The pick – Ryan Steed (CB, Furman)
Small school, athletic corner with a good bit of potential for a projected late pick.


Rounds 6 & 7

The targets:
Mike Harris (CB, FSU)
Audie Cole (LB, NC State)
Micah Pellerin (CB, Hampton)
Scott Solomon (DE, Rice)
Neiko Thorpe (S, Auburn)
George Bryan (TE, NC State)
Jamie Blatnick (DE, Oklahoma State)
Chase Ford (TE, Miami)
Frank Alexander (DE, Oklahoma)
Akiem Hicks (DT, Regina)

The picks –
Audie Cole (LB, NC State)
Scott Solomon (DE, Rice)
Cole is a productive, position-versatile linebacker who strikes me as the type of talent Schiano would like as depth, and Solomon is a high motor end with some tackle flexibility.

In addition to the R6/R7 targets mentioned above, here are a few names I’d like the Bucs to consider as undrafted free agents should they go unselected:

Joe Martinek (FB, Rutgers)
Aaron Corp (QB, Richmond)
Corey White (S, Samford)
Quinton Richardson (S, Washington)


In Summary
After adding the draft’s best back to go with previously acquired Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, the Bucs turn their focus towards upgrading a beleaguered defense. 

R1 – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
R2 – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
R3 – Jamell Fleming (CB, Oklahoma)
*R4 – Brandon Taylor (S, LSU)
R5 – Ryan Steed (CB, Furman)
R6 – Audie Cole (LB, NC State)
R7 – Scott Solomon (DE, Rice)


Go Bucs!