Sunday, September 16, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 2



Wow, an ugly 8-7 is no way to start the season.  Let’s try this again. 

Chiefs @ Bills
Neither team is as bad as they looked last week; Buffalo wins a close one.

Browns @ Bengals
Bengals get back on track at home; Green shreds a Joe Haden-less secondary.

Vikings @ Colts
Luck throws for 300, but Peterson dominates on the ground and scores the game winner late in the 4th. 

Raiders @ Dolphins
Two ugly teams; McFadden again is the offensive for Oakland; they win by 3.

Cardinals @ Patriots
Patriots get scared for a half; pull away in the last 30; Hernandez scores twice.

Bucs @ Giants
Cruz doesn’t drop 3 passes, and the front four feasts on the Bucs banged up OL.

Ravens @ Eagles
Vick makes more bad decisions against a much better defense; the boos get loud in Philly.

Saints @ Panthers
I have a feeling this is an ugly ugly game; Cam gets back on track at home against a bad Saints defense (especially on grass).

Texans @ Jaguars
They don’t have the greatest history here (lost 4 of their last 5 in JAX), but the talent difference is too much.

Redskins @ Rams
If Baltimore isn’t the sucker pick of the week it’s Washington; STL’s defense is the key in this one.

Cowboys @ Seahawks
Seattle’s defense gives Romo fits; home team wins a very low scoring game.

Jets @ Steelers
I smell blowout here.  Revis isn’t playing, and Sanchez isn’t the guy we saw last week.

Titans @ Chargers
This game has potential; the edge for me is SD’s dominant run defense against a tip-toeing (and seemingly shadow of his former self) Chris Johnson.

Lions @ 49ers
Trying not to overreact here, but I don’t see Detroit hanging with San Fran for a full 60.  Niners comfortably move to 2-0 as they shut down the run and force Stafford into multiple mistakes.

Broncos @ Falcons
I love this matchup.  If the favorite wins the SNF game, take the dog on MNF.  Atlanta will really start to miss Brent Grimes this week. 


Biggest winners (highest margin to lowest) –
1) Steelers
2) 49ers
3) Bengals
4) Giants
5) Patriots

Closest calls (lowest margin to highest) –
1) Vikings
2) Seahawks
3) Texans
4) Rams
5) Bills

Top Performers –
QB – Cam Newton v. Saints
RB – Adrian Peterson @ Colts
WR – Victor Cruz v. Bucs
Defense – James Laurinaitis v. Redskins

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Talbuc's Take - Week 1



Cowboys 24 @ Giants 17
The season’s kickoff game saw the Cowboys travel to New York and take down the defending champs.  For what it’s worth, that was the first time the defending champs lost a season opening prime time game in nine years.  With Jason Witten nursing a lacerated spleen and basically playing the role of a decoy most of the night, Kevin Ogletree stepped up with 114 yards and 2 TDs.  The Cowboys never trailed after his first score, and as good as they played, the Giants weren’t exactly giving it their best.  Ahmad Bradshaw was slow and ineffective as a runner, David Wilson fumbled and was benched, and Victor Cruz dropped three passes.  They looked a lot slower overall as a team in the second half as Romo and the running game led by Demarco Murray’s 131 yards took over.  It was a great start for the Cowboys.  They couldn’t have asked for a better game from their defense.  DeMarcus Ware sacked Eli twice, and the cornerback pairing of Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne did a solid job of holding Cruz and Hakeem Nicks in check.  Dallas will now travel to Seattle, while the Giants host the Bucs and try to avoid starting 0-2 at home. 


Rams 23 @ Lions 27
Good teams find ways to win games even when they don’t have their best stuff, and that’s exactly what the Lions did Sunday against the Rams.  Detroit, who trailed at four different points in the contest, rallied for an 80 yard game winning drive with less than two minutes to go, sealing the win on a Matt Stafford TD pass to Kevin Smith.  Stafford struggled for most of the day, throwing 3 INTs and showing too much of the poor decision making that has limited his development in the past.  Jeff Fisher’s defense was reading the plays before the happened and baited Stafford into some pretty putrid passes.  I like how he spread the ball around, completing passes to 10 different receivers, but the disappointment of the group had to be Titus Young.  He was held to 14 yards on 1 catch and wasn’t a part of the action after stupidly head butting Janoris Jenkins.  For the Rams Steven Jackson ran 21 times for a weak 2.5 ypc behind a bad offensive line, a unit that’s going to get Sam Bradford hurt if they don’t step up.  I like their defense, but the offense doesn’t have the firepower to capitalize on turnovers. 

Eagles 17 @ Browns 16
Speaking of ugly wins, there wasn’t an uglier one than this.  Yes, the Browns had the services of Joe Haden, but as good a cover man as he is, there’s absolutely no excuse for a team with the weapons that Philadelphia has to only score 2 TDs and a FG in 16 offensive drives.  That’s horrible.  Michael Vick was awful in completing 29 of 56 passes for an embarrassing 5.7 ypa.  He threw 2 INT and made stupid decision after stupid decision.  He’s going to be Philly’s biggest problem this season, and it’s only a matter of time until he gets hurt.  Think he can turn it around with the Ravens coming to town this week?  Cleveland’s new guys struggled pretty bad.  Brandon Weeden made Vick look like Aaron Rodgers, completing 34% of his passes for a laughable 3.4 ypa to go with his 4 INTs.  If it weren’t for the their defense, the Eagles lose this one.  Trent Richardson struggled too, running for 2.1 ypc on 19 attempts and caught just 1 pass for 5 yards.  You have to wonder if he’s completely healthy yet and if he’s putting himself at risk by playing at less than 100%.  With Haden starting his 4 game suspension this week, the Browns will face Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning without him. 


Falcons 40 @ Chiefs 24
Told you so!  Ok, I may have picked the Chiefs to win this game (KC isn’t the easiest place to play), but Julio Jones looked every bit the breakout player I think he’s going to be this season, catching 6 passes for 108 yards and 2 scores.  Nothing against Roddy White who is certainly also among the best in the league, but Jones is simply uncoverable at times.  Calvin Johnson is the only other receiver in the league with more ‘take over the game’ ability.  Michael Turner looked like a turtle, but that weakness is masked by the success of a near flawless passing game led by Matt Ryan.  Sean Weatherspoon started out on a good note with 7 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 TFL.  The Chiefs really missed Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers, as Ryan pretty much did whatever he wanted with the football.  For the Chiefs, Matt Cassel isn’t any better this year.  He’ll take what the defense gives him and nothing more.  Dwayne Bowe wasn’t a factor, but Dexter McCluster looks to have found a real role under the new staff.  The diminutive one caught 6 passes, twice as many as Bowe, for 82 yards and gives the passing game a much needed spark.  Seeing Jamaal Charles run for 5.4 ypc was a nice sight.  He looks fully recovered from last year’s ACL injury.  Atlanta gets a stiffer test this week when they host the Denver Mannings  on Monday Night Football.

Patriots 24 @ Titans 13
Another ho-hum win for Tom Brady and the Patriots.  After spotting the Titans to a 3 point lead, the Patriots scored 3 unanswered TDs and put this game comfortably out of reach.  Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both caught 6 passes and scored a TD, but the stat that stands out is that Wes Welker caught a measly 3 passes for 14 yards on 5 targets.  Was that a one week anomaly?  Welker and his agent hope so.  What likely impressed Bill Belichick and crew most was the rushing performance by Stevan Ridley.  The second year back ran for 125 yards on 21 carries with a TD and showed that he’s more than capable of playing the primary ball carrier role.  Ridley could prove to be quite the asset this season.  I liked seeing rookies Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower combine on a strip sack fumble recovered for a TD.  I’m sure we’ll see more of the same from those two over the years.  There wasn’t much to be happy about if you’re a Titans fan.  Chris Johnson still isn’t running hard, and the interior of his offensive line is still garbage.  Jake Locker showed me quite a bit and looks like starting material, if he can stay healthy.  He suffered a shoulder injury late on the turnover that wasn’t a turnover.  Kenny Britt returns to action this week and should take over the role of Locker’s primary target. 



Redskins 40 @ Saints 32
Well that went well.  I figured RGIII would be able to put up some points on the Saints’ decent defense, but 40 points in your first game as a pro, on the road, in the Superdome, against a Saints team that has played the role of pissed off victim all offseason.  Well done rookie.  The Redskins started the game with 4 straight scoring drives, including an 88 yard scoring pass on the first play of their second drive.  Drew Brees and the Saints offense were just slightly off.  Did the fact that Brees held out during training camp lead to the poor offensive rhythm?  Is he assuming too many play calling responsibilities with Sean Payton suspended?  Not to take anything away from RGIII and the Redskins, but the replacement refs gift wrapped a TD for them on a 4th and 1 on the first drive of the 3rd quarter.  Roman Harper was flagged for a ridiculous PI call, and Alfred Morris walked it in on the next play.  The Saints went from having the ball on their own 33 down 6 with momentum on their side at the start of the 3rd quarter to down 13 and struggling to find consistency.  They ran 3 plays inside Washington’s 10 late in the 3rd quarter but had to settle for a FG.  You can’t get that deep and settle for FGs.  Jimmy Graham is a beast.  He makes it look too easy at times.  Back to Morris, the Redskins primary ball carrier this week ran for 96 yards and 2 scores.  He looks to have earned another week atop the depth chart.  The Saints will look to get in the win column this week at Carolina, while the Redskins travel to St. Louis, where RGII and that suddenly dynamic offense gets to play their second straight game in the controlled climate of a dome. 

Colts 21 @ Bears 41
Now this didn’t go well.  While RGIII was shining in New Orleans, Andrew Luck struggled through 3 INTs and a fumble in his first NFL start, a bruising 41-21 loss to the Bears.  Luck may have been trying to do too much, but that’s not hard to do given what he has to work with on offense.  Aside from Reggie Wayne, the veteran he connected with 9 times for 135 yards, his only other receiving threat was his collegiate security blanket, Coby Fleener.  It didn’t help that the Bears lost Dwight Freeney left the game in the first quarter with a sprained ankle.  Jay Cutler on the other hand has to be thrilled with the way things went in week 1.  The veteran three for 333 yards and 2 scores, hooking up with his long lost #1 Brandon Marshall 9 times for 135 yards and a TD.  With the duo looking like they haven’t missed a best from their Denver days, Cutler may finally have the threat he’s sorely needed since joining the Bears.  Matt Forte might not like sharing the pigskin, but the Bears are a better running team with Michael Bush in the fold.  The former Raider rushed for two scores on the day and finished with a near split in carries with Forte.  I know it was the Colts, but the Bears did the things they were supposed to do and did them well.

Jaguars 23 @ Vikings 26
I caught a good bit of this one, and it turned out to be a pretty good game, especially the ending.  Adrian Peterson is definitely back.  Only that guy can come back from a severe knee injury in what seemed like a couple of months and run for 84 yards and 2 scores.  He’s in a league of his own.  Christian Ponder showed great chemistry with Kyle Rudolph, the second year TE who caught 5 passes for 67 yards.  Look for him to assume the role of Ponder’s #2 target behind Percy Harvin.  Peterson might be back, but Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t.  The reigning rushing leader looked a little sluggish in his return from holding out the preseason and wasn’t able to be much of a factor on his 22 touches.  Blaine Gabbert had a really nice opener, completing 23 of 39 passes for 260 yards and 2 scores without a turnover.  Gabbert didn’t throw for more than 221 yards in a single contest last season.  He looks to have developed a nice rapport with Cecil Shorts, which came in handy with rookie Justin Blackmon matched up with Antoine Winfield the whole game.  Jacksonville’s reward for a hard-fought loss is returning home to host the Texans.


49ers 30 @ Packers 22
That kids is what we call an ass kicking.  The 49ers came to town and smacked around the Packers in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score shows.  The dominant Niners defense held the high octane Packers to a single score through three quarters.  They shut down the deep game, limiting the vertical strikes to Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, and forcing Aaron Rodgers to settle for dinking and dunking it through repeatedly wasted drives.  The run game was, unsurprisingly, nonexistent, leading Mike McCarthy to play Randall Cobb in the backfield quite a bit.  I’ve made no secret of my fondness for Cobb’s game, and his athleticism was on full display Sunday with 9 catches for 77 yards and a huge punt return for a TD.  It wasn’t enough on this occasion as the Niners played what I thought was their best game in Jim Harbaugh’s tenure.  Frank Gore isn’t done yet.  He ran for 112 yards and a score on just 16 carries, while Michael Crabtree stepped up in the passing game for 7 catches and 76 yards.  I’m admittedly not a big Alex Smith fan, but that guy just keeps playing sound, smart football.  For Green Bay, it’s just one game, but that defense doesn’t look any better yet.  They couldn’t make the stops when they needed to and didn’t get any pressure on Smith outside from Clay Matthews and a blitzing Charles Woodson.  If I can provide the slightest defense for the Packers it would be that David Akers kicked a record tying FG at the end of the first half that bounced off the crossbar, and Rodgers threw an INT deep in his own territory that the Niners turned into six on just one play.  The Packers can’t afford to feel sorry for themselves with the Bears coming to town Thursday.  An 0-2 start would set off quite a few panic alerts in cheese country.

Bills 28 @ Jets 48
If there was an anomaly of week one, I believe it was the Jets/Bills game.  Sandwiching a 56 yard score by CJ Spiller were 5 Jets TDs and 1 FG.  Buffalo trailed 41-7 late in the 3rd quarter before they found the endzone a second time.  Mark Sanchez needs to grab a ton of Monday’s newspapers because I’m not sure he has many more 3 TD games in him this season.  The rookie Stephen Hill was the primary beneficiary of Sanchez’s solid showing, catching 5 passes for 89 yards and 2 TDs.  The tall vertical threat looks to have established himself as Braylon Edwards’ replacement as Sanchez’s deep threat.  Heck, even Shonn Greene had a decent game.  The circus stayed on the sidelines for most of the day which has to be a good thing for the Jets.  The less we see of him the better.  For Buffalo, the L in the standings wasn’t their only loss on the day.  Starting running back Fred Jackson sustained a knee injury that will have him out of action for at least a month, and #2 receiver David Nelson was lost for the year with a torn ACL.  It’s not exactly the start the Bills were looking for, but I think Spiller will do a more than admirable job of picking up the slack.  The question, as it has always been, is will Ryan Fitzpatrick eliminate the mental mistakes. 

Dolphins 10 @ Texans 30
This one was close for a quarter.  After spotting Miami a 3-0 lead, the Texans scored 3 times in the 2nd quarter, taking the guessing out of this contest at halftime.  Arian Foster’s shaky knee held up as he carried the ball 26 times and scored twice.  Andre Johnson added 119 receiving yards and a TD on 8 receptions, showing the league that’s he’s still a dominant force to be reckoned with.  The defense brought their A-game, sacking and intercepting rookie Ryan Tannehill 3 times each.  JJ Watt was the standout up front, compiling 1.5 sacks and defending 3 passes.  This defense comes at you from everywhere, and Tannehill and his 39.0 QB rating certainly felt it.  Reggie Bush accounted for 42% of the Dolphins’ yardage and took 14 of the team’s 19 carries out of the backfield.  With Daniel Thomas suffering a concussion, Miami would be in awful shape should Bush ever miss any substantial time.  Miami looks to be making an early push for the first pick in next year’s draft.  The Texans look to be getting off to a great start in their race for New Orleans.


Steelers 19 @ Broncos 31
He’s baaaaaaaaaaaaaack!  Peyton Manning didn’t break any records last night, but he did convince me that he’s capable of being the game changer he was prior to the neck injury.  Manning threw for 2 TDs, but more importantly he didn’t turn the ball over and was able to get up from the couple of hits that Pittsburgh managed to put on him.  Oops he did it again.  Demaryius Thomas caught a quick pass from Manning and took it 71 yards for a score, on a play that had to bring back horrible playoff memories for Steelers fans.  Willis McGahee isn’t a dominant runner any more (or even close to it), but with Manning under center showing that he still deserves ultimate respect, the balky kneed one was able to average 4 ypc against the Steelers defense.  Thomas, Eric Decker, and Jacob Tamme each caught 5 passes and should remain the three most targeted receivers on offense.  For Pittsburgh, the losses on the offensive line may be greater than the 31-19 opening game setback.  Right guard Ramon Foster and right tackle Marcus Gilbert left the game with injuries, further weakening an already shallow pool of offensive line talent.  They can’t afford to have Ben Roethlisberger get sacked 5 times a game like he was in this one.  Jonathan Dwyer was the biggest bright spot for the Steelers.  After a solid preseason showing, Dwyer averaged 4.8 ypc and was clearly the best runner of he, Isaac Redman, and Chris Rainey.  I’m anxious to see how he does against the Jets this week.  Peyton goes from one prime time game to another, heading to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Monday Night Football.  

Seahawks 16 @ Cardinals 20
This one, expectedly, wasn’t pretty.  In a game that was close throughout, Braylon Edwards’ drop of a potential game winning TD exemplified the kind of day Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense went through.  This already isn’t the most explosive set of wideouts, and when they start dropping very catchable passes, you’re really hamstringing your QB.  Yes, it was only an opener, but as someone who has high expectations for this team, to see them come out as flat as they did offensively definitely wasn’t encouraging.  The Cardinals can’t be encouraged knowing that their starting QB is out at least a couple of weeks after suffering an ankle injury.  Kevin Kolb was able to lead them on the game winning drive, but the guy was a backup for a reason.  Defensively, Daryl Washington is off to a nice start with 10 tackles, 1 TFL, and a sack.  If Seattle is going to contend for anything, they need to step it up. 

Panthers 10 @ Bucs 16
Maybe it’s the 10 year magic.  Maybe it’s a one week deal.  Whatever the case may be, the Buccaneers came out of the gates incredibly focused and actually carried out the game plan.  It was refreshing to see, and there are plenty of accolades to pass around.  I’ve got to start with the new guys.  Doug Martin, Mark Barron, and Lavonte David all met or exceeded game one expectations.  Martin handled the load as primary ball carrier and gave the Buccaneer running game an element it’s missed since Cadillac was in his prime.  Barron was an instant intimidator on defense, whether it was covering the secondary to knock down passes or closing on and knocking the piss out of Steve Smith.  David led the team in tackles and made the play of Geno Hayes look even worse than we already knew it to be.  I’m very pleased with the way this team looked.  Hell, even Gerald McCoy showed up for this one.  The cherry on top was the play of old man Ronde Barber.  Not only is he still playing football at the age of 106, he’s learning a new position as well.  The NFC’s Defensive Player of the Week totaled 5 tackles, 2 TFL, one sack, an interception, and two defended passes.  Great start for a great veteran.  Can’t say I’m not shocked about the way the Bucs shut down Carolina’s offense.  After averaging 43 points in two games against the Bucs last year, the Panthers were held to a meager 10, including a first half shutout.  Cam Newton threw more INTs than TDs and got absolutely nothing on the ground (5 carries 4 yards).  Hell, the entire Panthers team ran for 13 yards on 10 carries.  Bravo Bucs!  Your reward – a trip to New York to face the pissed off 0-1 defending champs.


Bengals 13 @ Ravens 44
I love it!  Joe Flacco unleashed!  If this is what we’re going to get from the Baltimore Ravens on a consistent basis this season, they should start making February reservations for New Orleans.  Flacco led a no-huddle offense that had no trouble moving the ball against a no-slouch Bengals defense.  Call me a Flaccoholic baby, I’m drinking the juice!  I’m not sculpting his Canton bust just yet, but I think very good things are ahead for him this year.  Another plus for the Ravens is that they only had to give Ray Rice 10 carries; save those legs.  I still expect big things from Torrey Smith, but he had a quiet night.  Good to see Dennis Pitta, the extremely productive BYU grad, being utilized early and often.  The Ravens defense brought its A-game too.  Andy Dalton was sacked 4 times and threw an interception to, who else, Ed Reed.  You don’t replace or not miss a guy like Terrell Suggs, but this was an excellent ’12 premier for the Ravens.  If you’re a Bengals fan, it’s got to hurt that they couldn’t even get anything done during garbage time.  Baltimore put it on cruise control for the 4th quarter, and Cincinnati couldn’t muster any points.  Another disappointing note for the Bengals is the inability of Dalton and Green to get any rhythm established.  Green was targeted 11 times, but recorded only 5 receptions.  Things will be a bit easier for the Bengals this week as they return home to open against the Browns.  Baltimore hits the road at the right time I believe to battle Philly. 

Chargers 22 @ Raiders 14
This is the one game I saw the least of in week 1.  Of what I did see, I had my belief confirmed that this Raiders team is going only as far as Darren McFadden takes them.  And for a guy who’s had a history of missing games, that’s a pretty big risk.  The inability to stay healthy has always been McFadden’s biggest knock, but there’s no denying that there aren’t more than maybe a couple of backs in the game who are more dangerous with the ball in their hands in space.  Great game catching the ball by McFadden as well; most ever in a game by a Raider rusher.  Oh by the way, the Raiders lost.  Phillip Rivers will take a victory, but I know he wishes they were more efficient on offense.  They moved the ball well but couldn’t consistently capitalize on field position.  It didn’t help that the running game was utterly useless.  Antonio Gates left with a rib injury, but it’s apparently a minor thing.  I’d hate to see this guy miss a ton of action again this year.  As much praise as I’m giving McFadden, the guy only rushed for 32 yards on 15 carries.  San Diego’s front seven did a tremendous job of shutting down the Raider run game and forcing Carson Palmer to beat them.  Wise move.  Palmer’s stat line doesn’t look bad, but from the action that I saw, he’s a step or two slow in going through his progressions and taking advantage of open windows.  I still think both of these teams are going to be looking up at the Broncos and Chiefs in the end. 


Best and Worst
I’m going to continue the ‘feature’ I started last year by naming my best and worst teams in the league each week.  I do my best not to overreact to one week’s worth of action, so this list is formed based on a combination of my gut and what I witnessed last week. 

Elite Eight
1 – San Francisco
2 – Baltimore
3 – Green Bay
4 – New England
5 – Houston
6 – Atlanta
7 – Denver
8 – Chicago

Funk Bunch
1 – Miami
2 – Cleveland
3 – Jacksonville
4 – Indianapolis
5 – Oakland
6 – Arizona
7 – Minnesota
8 – St. Louis


Top Performers

QB –
Robert Griffin III – 19/26, 320 yds, 2 TD, 139.9 QBR (#1), 10 car 42 yds
Matt Ryan – 23/31, 299 yds, 3 TDs, 136.4 QBR
Joe Flacco – 21/29, 299 yds, 2 TDs, 128.4 QBR
Tony Romo – 22/29, 307 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 129.5 QBR
Peyton Manning – 19/26, 253 yds, 2 TDs, 129.2 QBR
Mark Sanchez – 19/27, 266 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 123.4 QBR

RB –
Adrian Peterson – 17 car, 94 yds, 2 TDs, 1 rec, 3 yds
CJ Spiller – 14 car, 169 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 25 yds
DeMarco Murray – 20 car, 131 yds, 2 rec, 9 yds
Stevan Ridley – 21 car, 125 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 27 yds
Frank Gore – 16 car, 112 yds, 1 TD, 1 rec, 1 yd
LeSean McCoy – 20 car, 110 yds, 6 rec, 26 yds

WR –
Randall Cobb – 9 rec, 77 yds, 6 returns, 153 yds, 1 TD
Kevin Ogletree – 8 rec, 114 yds, 2 TDs
Julio Jones – 6 rec, 108 yds, 2 TDs
Reggie Wayne – 9 rec, 135 yds
Brandon Marshall – 9 rec, 119 yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson – 8 rec, 119 yds, 1 TD

DEF –
Cortland Finnegan – 10 tackles, 2 PD, 1 INT, 1 TD
Ray Lewis – 14 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF
Stephen Nicholas – 12 tackles, 2 PD, 1 INT, 1 fumble rec
NaVorro Bowman – 11 tackles, 2 PD, 1 INT
Paris Lenon – 2 sacks, 8 tackles
Wesley Woodyard – 12 tackles, 1 sack
Clay Matthews – 2.5 sacks, 2 tackles
DeMarcus Ware – 2 sacks, 5 tackles


Worst Performers

QB –
Brandon Weeden – 12/35, 118 yds, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 5.1 QBR
Ryan Tannehill – 20/36, 219 yds, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 39.0 QBR
Michael Vick – 29/56, 317 yds, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 51.0 QBR
Matthew Stafford – 32/48, 355 yds, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 69.4 QBR
John Skelton – 14/28, 149 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 51.0 QBR
Andy Dalton – 22/37, 221 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 65.3 QBR

RB –
DeAngelo Williams – 6 car, -1 yds, 1 rec, 5 yds
Trent Richardson – 19 car, 39 yds, 1 rec, 5 yds
Cedric Benson – 9 car, 18 yds
Isaac Redman – 11 car, 20 yds, 2 rec, 7 yds
Michael Turner – 11 car, 32 yds
Chris Johnson – 11 car, 4 yds, 6 rec, 47 yds

WR –
Braylon Edwards – 9 targets, 5 rec, 43 yds, dropped potential winning TD
Wes Welker – 5 targets, 3 rec, 14 yds
Titus Young – 3 targets, 1 rec, 14 yds, 1 head butt
Victor Cruz – 11 targets, 6 rec, 58 yds, 3 drops
Justin Blackmon – 6 targets, 3 rec, 24 yds
Antonio Gates – 8 targets, 4 rec, 43 yds, missed catchable TD pass
Dwayne Bowe – 6 targets, 3 rec, 53 yds



I don’t know that I’ll go into each game in this much detail each week, but it’s nice to be talking about football games again. 





Sunday, September 9, 2012

2012 NFL Predictions - All Talbuc Team



Here are my projected standouts at each position this season. 

First Team Offense
QB – Aaron Rodgers
FB – Vonta Leach
RB – Arian Foster, Ray Rice
WR – Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald
TE – Vernon Davis
LT – Joe Thomas
LG – Carl Nicks
C – Nick Mangold
RG –Marshal Yanda
RT – Tyson Clabo

Second Team Offense
QB – Tom Brady
FB – Marcel Reece
RB – LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden
WR – Jordy Nelson, Andre Johnson, AJ Green
TE – Aaron Hernandez
LT – Jake Long
LG – Logan Mankins
C – Chris Myers
RG – Josh Sitton
RT – Bryan Bulaga


First Team Defense
DE – Jason Pierre-Paul, Haloti Ngata, Julius Peppers
DT – Ndamukong Suh, Vince Wilfork
ILB – Patrick Willis, James Laurinaitis
OLB – Connor Barwin, DeMarcus Ware, Sean Weatherspoon
CB – Darrelle Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha
S – Eric Berry, Charles Woodson

Second Team Defense
DE – Jared Allen, Calais Campbell, Justin Smith
DT – Geno Atkins, Marcell Dareus
ILB – Derrick Johnson, Navorro Bowman
OLB – Clay Matthews, LaMarr Woodley, Chad Greenway
CB – Johnathan Joseph, Patrick Peterson
S – Earl Thomas, Troy Polamalu


2012 NFL Picks - Week 1



Here’s what I think will happen in the rest of week 1’s games (winner in bold). 

Colts @ Bears
Eagles @ Browns
Bills @ Jets
Redskins @ Saints
Patriots @ Titans
Jaguars @ Vikings
Dolphins @ Texans
Rams @ Lions
Falcons @ Chiefs
49ers @ Packers
Panthers @ Bucs
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Steelers @ Broncos
Bengals @ Ravens
Chargers @ Raiders

Biggest winners (highest margin listed first) –
1) Texans
2) Eagles
3) Lions
4) Saints
5) Packers

Closest calls (lowest margin listed first) –
1) Bills
2) Chiefs
3) Seahawks
4) Vikings
5) Raiders

Top Performers –
QB – Drew Brees v. Redskins
RB – LeSean McCoy @ Browns
WR – Calvin Johnson v. Rams
Defense – Houston v. Miami

Saturday, September 8, 2012

2012 NFL Predictions - Award Winners


NFL Offensive Player of the Year
1 – Aaron Rodgers
2 – Tom Brady
3 – Arian Foster
4 – Calvin Johnson
5 – Ray Rice
6 – Drew Brees
7 – Matt Ryan
8 – Julio Jones
9 – LeSean McCoy
10 – Cam Newton



NFL Defensive Player of the Year
1 – Jason Pierre-Paul
2 – Connor Barwin
3 – Patrick Willis
4 – DeMarcus Ware
5 – James Laurinaitis
6 – Sean Weatherspoon
7 – Clay Matthews
8 – Haloti Ngata
9 – Eric Berry
10 – Darrelle Revis



NFL MVP
1 – Aaron Rodgers
2 – Tom Brady
3 – Arian Foster
4 – Jason Pierre-Paul
5 – Calvin Johnson
6 – Ray Rice
7 – Drew Brees
8 – Matt Ryan
9 – Connor Barwin
10 – Julio Jones
11 – LeSean McCoy
12 – Patrick Willis
13 – DeMarcus Ware
14 – Cam Newton
15 – James Laurinaitis




NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
1 – Andrew Luck
2 – Doug Martin
3 – Justin Blackmon
4 – Russell Wilson
5 – Trent Richardson
6 – RGIII
7 – David Wilson
8 – Coby Fleener
9 – Brandon Weeden
10 – Kendall Wright



NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
1 – Nick Perry
2 – Bruce Irvin
3 – Stephon Gilmore
4 – Chandler Jones
5 – Luke Kuechly
6 – Mark Barron
7 – Morris Claiborne
8 – Fletcher Cox
9 – Courtney Upshaw
10 – Don’t’a Hightower



Comeback Player of the Year
Peyton Manning

Runners Up – Jamaal Charles & Jon Beason



Coach of the Year
Pete Carroll

Runners Up – Gary Kubiak & Romeo Crennel 









Friday, September 7, 2012

2012 NFL Predictions - Playoffs


1) New England Patriots
2) Houston Texans
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Kansas City Chiefs
5) Baltimore Ravens
6) Buffalo Bills

Wild Card Round
Bills @ Steelers – Steelers
Ravens @ Chiefs – Ravens

Divisional Round
Ravens @ Patriots – Patriots
Steelers @ Texans – Texans

Conference Championship
Texans @ Patriots – Texans




1) Green Bay Packers
2) Atlanta Falcons
3) New York Giants
4) Seattle Seahawks
5) Philadelphia Eagles
6) Chicago Bears

Wild Card Round
Bears @ Giants – Giants
Eagles @ Seahawks – Seahawks

Divisional Round
Seahawks @ Packers – Packers
Giants @ Falcons – Falcons

Conference Championship
Falcons @ Packers – Packers



Packers 34 
Texans 24



MVP 
Aaron Rodgers
3 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD




Thursday, September 6, 2012

2012 NFL Predictions - NFC West



1) Seattle Seahawks

Key Gets – Russell Wilson (QB, Wisconsin), Bruce Irvin (LB, West Virginia), Matt Flynn (QB, Packers), Jason Jones (DE, Titans), Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State), Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State),

Key Gones – John Carlson (TE, Vikings), David Hawthorne (LB, Saints), Mike Williams (WR, FA)

Key Games – wk1 @ Cardinals, wk2 v. Cowboys, wk3 v. Packers, wk4 @ Rams, wk6 v. Patriots, wk7 @ 49ers, wk8 @ Lions, wk10 v. Jets, wk 13 @ Bears, wk14 v. Cardinals, wk16 v. 49ers, wk17 v. Rams

Pete Carroll’s Seahawks have gone 7-9 in both of his season at the helm.  They spent all of last year looking up at the 49ers who ran away with the division.  What makes this year different?

Starting on offense, this was a very limited unit last year.  Upgrading at QB was a glaring need, so they did it twice.  Matt Flynn was signed in free agency and was expected to win the starting QB job.  Someone forgot to tell 3rd round pick Russell Wilson.  The former Wolfpack and Badger passer had an amazing preseason and was named the opening game starter.  He makes plays with his arm and legs and improves the overall efficiency of the offense when he’s on the field.  A guy they hope can stay on the field is RB Marshawn Lynch.  Coming off a career year, Lynch got a DUI over the offseason and has been dealing with back issues this preseason.  He’s clearly the most talented player on offense and should threaten last year’s numbers if he can stay healthy.  I like Robert Durbin, the rookie rusher who is Lynch’s backup.  As valuable as Lynch is, I think Turbin can handle the load should the opportunity present itself.  Their stable of receivers still leaves a lot to be desired.  Sidney Rice hasn’t played in at least ten games since 2009 and is one big hit away from another shoulder injury.  Golden Tate and Ben Obomanu are backup talents, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable counting on a lot of production from Braylon Edwards.  I like Doug Baldwin, but he’s dealing with hamstring issues this preseason.  I see Wilson improving a lot this season.  They’re pretty young up front.  LT Russell Okung is reliable but has suffered two significant injuries in his first two seasons.  Max Unger has found a home at center, and the Seahawks are hoping to get James Carpenter back healthy soon.  If these guys can stay healthy and log a few snaps together, I like their chances of getting better as the year progresses. 

This is the side of the ball that has me excited for Seattle this season.  They’re an underrated unit that excels against both the run and pass.  Red Bryant, Alan Branch, and Brandon Mebane run a combined 959 pounds and are rock solid against the run.  The move to Seattle has worked wonders for Chris Clemons.  He has tallied 22 sacks in his two years under Carroll, which is one more than he had in the previous five seasons combined.  They needed another pass rushing threat and may have landed the best in this year’s draft in Bruce Irvin.  He was a controversial selection at #15 overall, but Seattle is confident that they’ve landed an explosive pass rusher that can rival the production of last year’s rookie standouts, Von Miller and Aldon Smith.  Veteran Leroy Hill remains the starting WLB and is joined by two youngsters.  Rookie Bobby Wagner has earned the starting MLB job after David Hawthorne’s departure, and the athletic KJ Wright took over the SLB job early in his rookie season last year and has been everything they had hoped he’d be.  The Seahawks line up what may be the NFL’s most physical duo at cornerback in Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.  They’re both young and have plenty of good football ahead of them.  Rounding out the defense are Pro Bowl safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas.  Like the corners, these two compliment each other very well.  Chancellor is a rock against the run, and Thomas plays a tremendous centerfield. 

I like this team’s mojo and think they have what it takes to pull off the upset and unseat the Niners as division champs.

Team MVP – Marshawn Lynch
Breakout Player – KJ Wright
Disappointment – Sidney Rice



2) San Francisco 49ers
Matched up with AFC East – harder environments on road (Patriots, Jets)

Key Gets – Randy Moss (WR, Titans), Brandon Jacobs (RB, Giants), Mario Manningham (WR, Giants), AJ Jenkins (WR, Illinois), LaMichael James (RB, Oregon)

Key Gones – Braylon Edwards (WR, Seahawks), Josh Morgan (WR, Redskins)

Key Games – wk1 @ Packers, wk2 v. Lions, wk4 @ Jets, wk6 v. Giants, wk7 v. Seahawks, wk8 @ Cardinals, wk10 v. Rams, wk11 v. Bears, wk12 @ Saints, wk13 @ Rams, wk15 @ Patriots, wk16 @ Seahawks, wk17 v. Cardinals

If he knew it was going to be this easy I’m sure Jim Harbaugh would have thrown his hat into the NFL ring a lot sooner.  In his first year as head coach, Harbaugh’s Niners had double digit wins and made the playoffs for the first time since 2002.  Can they do it again.

Alex Smith actually looked like a professional QB last year.  He threw 17 TDs with only 5 INTs and eclipsed 3,000 yards for the first time in his career.  Despite the success, Harbaugh swung and missed in his attempt to acquire Peyton Manning.  The fact that they were pursuing Manning after Smith’s career year tells you that Smith probably isn’t headed down the road to Eliteville.  Frank Gore played a full season for the first time since 2006, but like Michael Turner in Atlanta, I think Gore is entering a season of substantial decline in output.  He has plenty of assistance though.  Kendall Hunter is still around, and the Niners added Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James this offseason.  Look for Hunter to draw a handful of starts.  Michael Crabtree returns as the #1 wideout, and they upgraded the other spot by bringing in both Mario Manningham and Randy Moss.  The latter two can stretch the field, but I’m not sure their talents will be maximized with Smith at QB.  Vernon Davis remains Smith’s top target and should again lead the team in receptions.  He seems to have really turned the corner as a pro and is among the top five in the league at his position.  There still aren’t many better athletes in the game.  With the Niners likely to once again lead the conference in rushing, they’ll need another big (healthy) year from their offensive line.  Their standouts are on the left side.  Joe Staley has developed into a very dependable left tackle, and Mike Iupati is a beast at left guard.  Center Jonathan Goodwin is limited, and both right guard Alex Boone and right tackle Anthony Davis are big question marks.

A sound running game and top notch defense will take you far in this league, and that’s what happened to the 49ers last year.  Inside linebacker Patrick Willis remains one of the game’s best defenders, and he’s joined in the middle by superstar in the making, Navorro Bowman.  Bowman is a guy with a ton of talent who gets the benefit of playing next to a perennial All Pro.  This combination is the heart of one of the game’s best defenses.  Flaking them are a couple of other studs.  Aldon Smith totaled 14 sacks last season and might have deserved the Defensive ROY award over Von Miller.  He’s going to be a force for a long time.  Across from him is Ahmad Brook, a veteran who excels against both the pass and run.  They’re not lacking studs up front either.  Justin Smith has been one of the game’s best defensive players for years and keeps producing like clockwork.  Ray McDonald occupies the other end spot and put up a career high 5.5 sacks last season.  This front seven doesn’t give opposing offenses much room to maneuver.  Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, and Chris Culliver gave San Fran three solid corners last year.  I just wonder if they’ll be able to repeat last year’s success.  Rogers isn’t getting any younger, and Brown never stood out before last year.  They’ll get help again from their safeties.  Dashon Goldson has been everything the Niners could have hoped for at free safety, and Donte Whitner remains one of the better run defending strong safeties. 

They’re returning virtually the same team that won 13 games last season, but something tells me they won’t catch as many breaks this season as they did in 2011.

Team MVP – Patrick Willis
Breakout Player – Kendall Hunter
Disappointment – Frank Gore



3) Saint Louis Rams

Key Gets – Courtland Finnegan (CB, Titans), Rocky McIntosh (LB, Redskins), Ovie Mughelli (FB, Falcons), Scott Wells (C, Packers), Michael Brockers (DT, LSU), Brian Quick (WR, Appalachian State), Janoris Jenkins (CB, N Alabama), Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati)

Key Gones – Ron Bartell (CB, Raiders), Brandon Lloyd (WR, Patriots), Cadillac Williams (RB, FA)

Key Games – wk1 @ Lions, wk3 @ Bears, wk4 v. Seahawks, wk5 v. Cardinals, wk7 v. Packers, wk8 v. Patriots, wk10 @ 49ers, wk11 v. Jets, wk12 @ Cardinals, wk13 v. 49ers, wk17 @ Seahawks

The Rams have been football’s most pathetic organizations over the last five years, averaging a measly three wins a season over that span.  Not only did they have zero winning or even .500 seasons, they won two games twice and three games once to go with a fabulous 1-15 in 2009.  Pathetic. 

Enter Jeff Fisher.  One season removed from the sidelines, the former Oilers/Titans general was hired to rescue a floundering franchise.  Fortunately, QB isn’t in the top 20 list of problems for this team.  Sam Bradford hasn’t taken his game to the next level yet, but just about any QB would struggle with the options he’s had.  With apologies to the Wes Welker-lite Danny Amendola, Brandon Lloyd was the only professional caliber receiver Bradford has had the opportunity to work with.  He left after Bradford’s rookie year.  Amendola remains, but they haven’t improved.  Brandon Gibson and the other Steve Smith scare absolutely no one, and rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens are huge unknowns.  TE Lance Kendricks was supposed to be a big factor last year, but he caught only 28 passes and didn’t score a single TD.  Will that change under new leadership?  The only constant positive of this organization over the last seven seasons have been the play of superstar Steven Jackson.  Despite having shoddy blocking and sparse supporting weapons on offense, the guy remains a model of consistency.  Yes he’s approaching the ancient age of 30, but I still think he has plenty left.  The Rams drafted insurance this year in Isaiah Pead, a guy of whom I’m a big fan.  Used effectively, the combination of Jackson and Pead could offset the weaknesses at receiver.  Those weaknesses are trumped only by the putridity of the worst offensive line in football.  LT Rodger Saffold and RG Harvey Dahl were the only moderately valuable players on last year’s line.  Adding Scott Wells at center is a step in the right direction, but this group has a long way to go. 

This side of the football is what I believe will keep the Rams out of the basement this year.  They certainly won’t threaten the Steelers and 49ers in dominance, but I think they’re moving in the right direction here.  Chris Long has established himself as a pass rushing force, and MLB James Laurinaitis is the defense’s equivalent of Steven Jackson, a consistent, high output player.  I like the additions this offseason.  Corners Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins were major gets for a secondary that started the likes of Justin King, Roderick Hood, and Al Harris last year.  They’ve improved at the corner position more than any other team this offseason.  In addition to Long, the Rams will line up two other young players with huge upsides in Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers.  Quinn started only one game last year but still tallied five sacks.  He’ll start across from Long this year and give the Rams the fiercest pair of edge rushers they’ve had in a long time.  Brockers is a huge boost to a run defense that ranked near the bottom of the league last year.  I like the future with Long, Quinn, Brockers, and Laurinaitis anchoring that front seven.  Finnegan has a lot left, and Jenkins can be an elite talent if he chooses to be an adult. 

They’re far from a complete team, but I think the additions they made this offseason, including installing Fisher as head coach, will help them emerge from the doldrums of the league. 

Team MVP – Steven Jackson
Breakout Player – Robert Quinn
Disappointment – Rodger Saffold



4) Arizona Cardinals

Key Gets – Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame), Jamell Fleming (CB, Oklahoma), William Gay (CB, Steelers)

Key Gone – Richard Marshall (CB, Dolphins)

Key Games – wk1 @ Seahawks, wk2 @ Patriots, wk3 v. eagles, wk5 @ Rams, w8 v. 49ers, wk9 @ Packers, wk11 @ Falcons, wk12 v. Rams, wk13 @ Jets, wk14 @ Seahawks, wk15 v. Lions, wk16 v. Bears, wk17 @ 49ers

On paper Arizona’s 8-8 record gives the impression of a pretty good season.  A closer look will show you that they didn’t win a game by more than seven points and half of them were by three or less.  Good teams win the close ones, but good teams also have an occasional runaway once in a while.

This team’s biggest controversy is who to line up under center.  Kevin Kolb cost the Cardinals $65 million and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  He has three wins and nine TDs to show for it.  Arizona grudgingly turned to John Skelton, the backup who makes about 1/20 what Kolb does.  Skelton won the job this preseason in a competition that didn’t exactly rival Montana-Young.  I like Skelton a lot better than Kolb and hope he gets an honest chance to keep the job.  They’re better at RB but far from content.  Beanie Wells totaled 1,000 yards last year for the first time in three seasons but is limited as a runner and underwent knee surgery this offseason.  Ryan Williams is easily the more talented back, but he missed all of his rookie season with a knee injury.  He appears healthy this preseason, and if he stays that way, I’ll be surprised if the carry count doesn’t tilt more in his direction as the season progresses.  Larry Fitzgerald remains one of the game’s greats and is easily this team’s top offensive talent.  To illustrate how great he is, Fitzgerald caught 80 passes, had the second highest season yardage total of his career, and scored 8 times despite a shaky QB situation and few other offensive threats.  Neither Early Doucet nor Andre Roberts has taken the #2 job and run with it, leading the Cardinals to draft Notre Dame standout Michael Floyd.  Unfortunately, Floyd hasn’t separated himself either, and it’s likely none of them will until they get a little more stability at the QB position.  Speaking of instability, the Cardinals rival the Rams for the title of league’s worst offensive line.  Not that he was anything special by any means, but losing LT Levi Brown to a torn right triceps isn’t going to help things.  RT Jeremy Bridges is also gone for the year before it starts meaning really raw rookie Bobby Massie is sinking or swimming as a starter.  The lone bright spot on the line is center Lyle Sendlein, but he can only play one position at a time. 

The Cardinals will have to lean on their defense once again this season, and like St. Louis, they have a few gems of their own on this side of the ball.  Patrick Peterson – in my top five of favorite NFL players (with Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, and Ndamukong Suh) – had a fabulous rookie season.  He set multiple return records, was a weekly fixture on highlight shows, and made the Pro Bowl.  I believe he steps up into the elite tier of cover guys this year and rivals Nnamdi Asomugha for best cornerback in the conference.  Behind Peterson are two veteran safeties who know how to make plays on the ball in the air.  Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson have combined for 45 INTs in their career and do a fine job of keeping the action in front of them.  Arizona has one of the finer defensive end tandems in the league with Florida boys Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell.  The former seems to be showing signs of slipping at age 31, but the latter is on a steady climb to the top of the class.  If NT Dan Williams can finally come into his own, this front seven could be really dangerous.  Daryl Washington broke out in a big way in his second season, totaling 94 tackles and five sacks.  I predict he makes the Pro Bowl this season and becomes more of a household name outside of Arizona.  The Cardinals’ problem for years was the lack of a viable pass rushing linebacker off the edge.  Sam Acho stepped up and contributed seven sacks as a rookie and has the team hoping they’ve found something worth keeping.  O’Brien Schofield has shined as a situational pass rusher, and if he doesn’t have any setbacks from shoulder surgery, they should be stronger at the other outside position. 

I doubt the Cardinals are as fortunate in close games this season.  That means a few more losses, and if the Rams can get a few more wins, the Cardinals could be the team bringing up the rear in the NFC West. 

Team MVP – Larry Fitzgerald
Breakout Player – Ryan Williams
Disappointment – Darnell Dockett















Division MVP – Larry Fitzgerald
Division Breakout Player – Robert Quinn
Division Disappointment – Frank Gore