2012 NFL Free Agency Projections

With the NFL’s 2012 season (finally) getting off to an official start at 4:00 pm Tuesday, here are my projections for where the key free agents will land. 

QB
Peyton Manning – Cardinals

Matt Flynn – Dolphins

Alex Smith – 49ers

Josh Johnson - 49ers

Jason Campbell – Broncos

Chad Henne – Chiefs

RB

Michael Bush – Bengals

Mike Tolbert – Chiefs

Peyton Hillis – Giants

BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Broncos

Cedric Benson – Raiders

 

 

WR

Vincent Jackson – Bucs

Reggie Wayne – Cardinals

Marques Colston – Redskins

Brandon Lloyd – Patriots

Robert Meachem – Saints

Mario Manningham – Vikings

Laurent Robinson – Cowboys

Mike Wallace – Steelers

Pierre Garcon – Broncos

Plaxico Burress – Eagles

Harry Douglas – Cardinals

Eddie Royal – Bucs

 

OL

Carl Nicks – Cowboys

Ben Grubbs – Seahawks

Evan Mathis – Bucs

Jared Gaither – Chargers

Demetrius Bell – Bears

Chris Myers - Packers

Scott Wells - Broncos



DL

Mario Williams – Bears

John Abraham – Titans

Jeremy Mincey – Browns

Brodrick Bunkley – Bucs

Jason Jones – Panthers

Red Bryant – Seahawks

 

LB

Stephen Tulloch – Lions

Curtis Lofton – Bucs

Dan Connor – Cowboys

David Hawthorne – Eagles

Joe Mays – Bears

Erin Henderson – Rams

Jarret Johnson – Colts

 

DB

Courtland Finnegan – Bucs

Carlos Rogers – Cowboys

Brandon Carr – Rams

Richard Marshall – Vikings

Terrell Thomas – Giants

LaRon Landry – Jets

Reggie Nelson – Dolphins

What Will Peyton Do?

Peyton Manning will be starting for a team other than the Colts for the first time in his decorated professional career, and he unsurprisingly has more than a few suitors. A while back, I touched on this topic and hypothesized the possibility of Manning ending up in New York with the Jets. Would that instantly become the NFL’s #1 story or what? Peyton making a comeback come back and doing so in the media metropolis of New York, a city already inhabited by his two-time Super Bowl winning brother. Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening. I believe a lot of things would have to go wrong for several other teams in order for the Jets to reach the top of Peyton’s list.

According to reports from those close to Manning, he’s looking to land with a team that’s basically on the doorstep of a championship and plays in either a dome or mild weather. He’s not ruling out the NFC but would prefer to not switch conferences. That team would also possibly need to make room for Reggie Wayne because the two ex-Colts would like to (not have to) go somewhere as a combo deal. What teams fit that description?

I had a bit of a write-up for Washington, but they just traded up to #2 for the right to draft RGIII. Cross Seattle off the list too. They apparently want him, but I can’t see Peyton playing in that weather for a team lacking severely at receiver.

With Peyton expected to make a decision in the next few days, the list of potential destinations is narrowing quickly as it appears to be down to a three team race – Denver, Miami, and Arizona.

Peyton spent Friday in Denver, but that just doesn’t seem like a fit to me. They’re not exactly a mild weather locale, and they’ve got that Timmy guy at QB. Don’t get me wrong, Peyton was probably a better passer than Timmy a week after his last procedure, but Timmy’s a $$$ cow. Might Peyton be flirting with Denver in order to drive up the bids from other teams?

I really think this comes down to Miami and Arizona. How about a little point-counterpoint?

Miami has Brandon Marshall.
Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald.
Point Arizona.

Miami is a mild climate city.
Arizona has the retractable roof.
Lean Arizona.

Miami has a rookie HC in Joe Philbin.
Arizona’s Ken Whisenhunt is entering his 6th year as HC.
Point Arizona.

I also think Arizona’s young defense is more attractive than Miami’s, as is their running game. Reggie Wayne would also slot in very nicely as a #2 across from Fitzgerald.

Those certainly aren’t all the factors, but I think they will be some of the keys that lead Peyton Manning to become the next QB of the Arizona Cardinals.