1) Seattle
Seahawks
I picked these guys as an upset pick to win the division
last year, and they were undoubtedly one of the more impressive teams in the
league. In what was thought to be a
division of Niners and also-rans, the Seahawks made the playoffs and were a
team no one wanted to play. Guess what? They better this year.
Matt Flynn came to town with ideas of replacing Tarvaris Jackson
at QB but was outdone for the job by third round pick, Russell Wilson. The former Wolfpack, former Badger won the
starting job in camp and didn’t look back.
He was responsible for 30 total TDs and more than 3,500 yards but more
importantly ran the read-option to perfection.
The guy has tremendous leader and the mental make up of a champion. I’m a big fan. All Marshawn Lynch did last year was run for
a career high by almost 400 yards and prove to be a perfect fit in this
offense. He’ll again finish in the top 5
in rushing, and I think he has an award winning year. One downer for the ’13 season is that new
acquisition Percy Harvin was sidelined before the season even got
underway. The former Viking underwent
hip surgery August 1 and is unlikely to suit up until midway through the
regular season. There’s a ton of
potential for a ground game that can utilize Lynch, Wilson, Harvin, and rookie
Christine Michael. For now they’ll have
to get by with Golden Tate and Sidney Rice at receiver. The latter may be the de-facto #1, but the
former has been getting a ton of hype this preseason. Tate has a chance to get a lot of the touches
earmarked for Harvin and make this dynamic offense even more explosive.
Seattle
has had one of the league’s top defenses for the last two years. No one allowed fewer points in ’12 than these
guys. They’re likely to lead the league
again considering their offseason haul.
Chris Clemons, the team’s leading pass rusher, went down in last year’s
Wild Card game with a torn ACL and is questionable for week 1. No problem.
All they did was go out and sign both Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in
free agency. Avril tallied 20.5 sacks
the last two years, and Tampa
chose to let Bennett walk after notching a career high 9. When you add these pass rushers to behemoths
like Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane, that’s going to spell trouble for a lot of
professional passers. I like two of
their young linebackers. Bobby Wagner
notched a whopping 140 tackles as a rookie at MLB, and KJ Wright is one of the
better all-round backers in the game. That’s
pretty solid so far, and I haven’t even mentioned the league’s best
secondary. Richard Sherman and Brandon
Browner form the premier corner duo in the game. They’re big, aggressive, physical, fast, and
make plays on the football. The fact
that newly acquired Antoine Winfield, a solid slot guy even at 36, was cut for
youngsters Walter Thurmond and Jeremy
Lane tells you what Pete Carroll thinks of his
young depth. The safety pairing is as
good as the one at corner. Earl Thomas
is the best young safety in the game, in my opinion, and strong safety Kam
Chancellor makes Sherman
and Browner look soft.
I’m really high on this team, and given what they’ve
accomplished this offseason along with their development and grown in ’12, I
think they’ve got what it takes to finish ahead of the Niners.
MVP – Marshawn Lynch
Breakout – Golden Tate
Disappointment – Sidney Rice
2) San Francisco
49ers
It was a great ride but not quite the finish the NFC champs
were hoping for. After a 12-4 regular
season, the Niners appeared to be on the verge of another championship, but the
Ravens had other plans. Are the Niners
up for another fight?
Not a lot of guys are getting more hype coming into the ’13
season than Niners QB Colin Kaepernick, and rightfully so. No qualified passer had a higher yard per
attempt average than Kaepernick, and only seven passers had a higher QB
rating. Oh, and did I mention the he’s
one of the three most dangerous QBs on the move (along with Rodgers and RGIII)? Last year Kaepernick had a yards per carry
average nearly identical to RGIII’s and had just two fewer rushing scores in
just over half as many carriers. I
expect quite the encounter this season.
Defenses have been gearing up to stop the read-option attack, and with
the Niners being without Michael Crabtree for at least the majority of the year
with an Achilles injury, Kaepernick is going to keep running. Who will win out? Frank Gore isn’t 106. It just seems that way. The model of consistently the last two years,
Gore outdid his ’11 total by 1 yard. I
would like to see him becoming a bigger part of the passing game once again,
and maybe that will happen given the situation at receiver. The newly acquired Anquan Boldin figures to
be Kaepernick’s security blanket, and with a lack of depth and experience at
the position, the young QB will likely often look his way. While Boldin is no longer an elite playmaker,
there’s not a more reliable set of hands in the game. After Boldin, the Niners are looking for
anyone to step up. Hopefully rookie
Quinton Patton, my favorite receiver from this year’s draft, seizes the
opportunity and makes a difference. The
Niners and Chiefs traded busts, so maybe Jim Harbaugh will get something out of
Jon Baldwin that KC couldn’t. Vernon
Davis remains one of the best athletes in the league. Although he and Kaepernick didn’t have that
immediate bond you usually see from young QBs and their TE, I expect Davis to be a primary target
in Crabtree’s offense. Look for a big year
from him.
I’m not sure these guys can thump their chests as the top
unit in their own division, let alone the league, anymore. Justin Smith may truly be the team’s most
valuable player, an opinion that had a lot of validity as Aldon Smith really
struggled down the stretch when Justin was sidelined. The rest of the defense struggled as well, as
opposing QBs had less difficulty against this group minus Justin. He’s ready to go which is great news for
everyone. Patrick Willis and NaVorro
Bowman form the league’s top inside linebacker duo, and I’m not sure that’s
even debatable. They’re both sideline to
sideline, physical defenders who don’t make mistakes. I like Ray McDonald at end, but they’re going
to miss NT Isaac Sopoaga at the nose. As
insurance (and proof of lesson learned last year) San Fran drafted both Tank
Carradine and Corey Lemonier and signed Glenn Dorsey in free agency. If you had to pick one area to distinguish
between the Seahawks and Niners (other than the stud ILBs), it would be the
weaknesses in San Fran’s secondary.
Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, and Nnamdi Asomugha don’t come close to Sherman, Browner, and Thurmond/Lane. With Dashon Goldson leaving, the Niners turn
to rookie Eric Reed to take his place at FS.
Donte Whitner returns at SS, but I worry, at least early on, how these
two will function together with Reed being a rookie and Whitner no longer being
at the top of his game. If the Niners
experience another loss up front, the repercussions could be much worse this
year.
I’m in no way expecting these guys to fade off into the
sunset, but I think they’ll take a back seat to Seattle within the division.
MVP – Colin Kaepernick
Breakout – Quinton Patton
Disappointment – Tarell Brown
3) St. Louis
Rams
Jeff Fisher’s first year at the helm wasn’t a winning one,
but it had to be considered a success.
Coming off an embarrassing 2-14 ’11 season, the Rams rebounded and
looked like a team with some promising youth.
Don’t get me wrong.
I’m a fan, but Sam Bradford is entering a make-or-bend-forcibly season
for me. This will be his fourth year as
a pro and second working with Brian Schottenheimer. Yes, they’ve lost Steven Jackson, but I do
like where their passing game stands.
Tavon Austin gets the publicity as the dynamic weapon, and rightfully
so. He’s of the rare Randall Cobb mold
as a player who can beat you in multiple ways.
For this year at least, I’m higher on Chris Givens. Last year Givens showed himself to be a very
viable deep threat, and word is they’re varying his routes a bit more this
year. Look for big things from him. I also love Austin’s college teammate, Stedman Bailey,
and he’d be a solid #5 behind Austin Pettis and Brian Quick. Lance Kendricks hasn’t broken out as a
terribly threatening TE, so the Rams signed Jared Cook in free agency. Cook’s been more hype than production to this
point in his career, but this is definitely a more promising situation than he
had in Tennessee. Back to the running game, a trio of backs
looks to fill the hole left by Jackson’s
departure to Atlanta. Daryl Richardson has first shot at being the
man, and he wasn’t awful when called upon last season. I just think his upside is limited. The guy I seeing as having the most talent in
this backfield is Isaiah Pead. Pead
struggled to make an impact in his first year and starts this one with a one
game suspension. He’s got to figure it
out.
They don’t get nearly as much attention as division rivals San Francisco and Seattle,
but St. Louis
has some good things going on defense as well with young fixtures at each
level. Two of them are at defensive end
where Chris Long and Robert Quinn combined for 22 sacks last season. As good as Long has been the last three
seasons, I’m excited to see how big a step Quinn takes in his third year. This is a guy who was a #1 overall talent
with a huge ceiling. I’m also a fan of
their third rusher, William Hayes, a guy they were wise to re-sign this
offseason. Michael Brockers got off to a
slow start last year with that ankle injury, but he looks like another future
star in the middle of the defensive line.
He’s healthy and should make this productive pass rush even more
dangerous. James Laurinaitis, the heart
of the defense, has been one of the most reliable MLBs in the league in his
four seasons with the Rams. I’m anxious
to see how their new WLB Alec Ogletree fares.
His talent is undeniable, as are his red flags, but if he figures it
out, he’ll be a great compliment to Laurinaitis. I can’t say I’m a fan of either of these two,
but Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins were one of the stingiest pair of
corners in the league last year. Finnegan
is a proven vet, and Jenkins acclimate himself well in year one. Rookie TJ McDonald is their best safety, and
that’s not necessarily a good thing.
I like where these guys are headed, but unfortunately,
they’ve got two Super Bowl contenders within their own division. I think a winning record would be a great
season.
MVP – Sam Bradford
Breakout – Chris Givens
Disappointment – Daryl Richardson
4) Arizona
Cardinals
And lastly, a team that hasn’t been very relevant very
often. The ’12 season was yet another
forgettable one for the Cardinals with their second five win season in three
years. How much hope is there for these
guys in a division with the Hawks, Niners, and up-and-coming Rams?
It’s a shame they’re in the NFC West because I think Arizona made strides
this offseason. They replaced Ken
Whisenhunt with Bruce Arians, the guy who basically coached the Colts last
year. Thanks to the acquisition of
Carson Palmer, Arians will be able to stretch the field as he likes to do. Palmer is pretty much an afterthought at the
QB position anymore, but I really like his fit in this offense. He threw for over 4,000 yards last year in an
awful Oakland offense but will have a future
HOFer in Larry Fitzgerald and impressive youngster in Michael Floyd to with in Arizona. Fitzgerald may have fallen off the radar a
bit based on the lack of professional QB talent he’s had to work with the last
couple of seasons. Palmer’s the best passer
he’s had since Warner in ’09. Floyd
figures to see quite the uptick in output this year due to Palmer’s addition as
well as impressive camp that has him in the starting lineup. Andre Roberts makes for a nice #3 receiver,
and Rob Housler is a TE with upside. The
passing game looks good on paper. The
running game on the other hand gets an incomplete grade. Rashard Mendenhall leaves Pittsburgh
for the starting job in Arizona
that he’s not getting much competition for based on Ryan Williams’ disappointing
inability to get healthy. Mendenhall
isn’t Barry Sanders, but surely he’ll put up more than LaRod Stephens-Howling’s
team leading 357 rushing yards last year.
They suffered a blow early on as first round pick and projected left
guard Jonathan Cooper sustained a knee injury that may cost him his rookie
season. He was the marquee addition to
an offensive line in need of big time help.
On defense there’s a bit of good, a bit of bad, and not much
in between. Patrick Peterson is one of
the elite of the elite athletes in the game.
In addition to developing into a shutdown corner, he’s a
highlight-making return man, and now is logging some snaps on offense. The other corner spot isn’t so secure. Jerraud Powers and Antoine Cason aren’t ideal
starters. Safety is lacking as
well. Yeremiah Bell and Rashad Johnson
are uninspiring replacements for Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson, two guys who
weren’t exactly in their primes. Tyrann
Mathieu should be given every opportunity to get on the field at free safety
and line up with his former LSU teammate Peterson. Watch for him to make an impact in his first
year. With the switch at DC and in
scheme, I look for bigger years from Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett. Both figure to be freed up more in Todd
Bowles’ aggressive defense, resulting in higher sack totals and more impact
plays. Unfortunately, they’re going to be
without stud ILB Daryl Washington due to multiple off field issues. Karlos Dansby returns to Arizona
and will be counted on to pick up the slack in Washington’s absence. I like Kevin Minter to see the most time next
to Dansby inside. A continuous problem
for the Cardinals is a lack of sacks from their edge rushers. Washington
led the team in sacks last year with 9, while Sam Acho, Quentin Groves, and
O’Brien Schofield combined for 12. The
lack of an edge rushing presence and talent at corner opposite Peterson will be
the downfall of this defense.
Again, I like the strides these guys made, but they’re in
the wrong division. 8-8 would have to be
considered a very successful season.
MVP – Larry Fitzgerald
Breakout – Michael Floyd
Disappointment – Cornerback opposite Peterson
Division MVP – Marshawn Lynch
Division Breakout – Golden Tate
Division Disappointment – Daryl Richardson
