Congratulations Seahawks!
I thought they were the better team going into the game (my breakdown
showed them having the edge on both sides of the ball), but I certainly didn’t
expect to see it get that out of hand. Seattle gets their first
NFL championship, joining their ’76 brethren Buccaneers as one-time winners of
it all. Interestingly, that Super Bowl
saw the Bucs dominant defense destroy Oakland ’s
offensive machine. Speaking of Seattle ’s expansion
companion, I thought I’d take an early look at some decisions the Bucs may need
to make this offseason.
The Bucs pick 7th in the first round, where
they’ll look to add to a talented, albeit shallow roster. That pick must be spent on an impact player,
whether it is a QB, receiver, or pass rusher; all areas of need for the
Bucs. Here are the positions I believe
they need to address in free agency and/or the draft:
QB – I’m not sold on Mike Glennon as a guy who is going to
win a meaningful January or February game for this team. I also don’t see how he fits new OC Jeff
Tedford’s style of passers who can move in the pocket. The free agent pool is empty, so do they ride
with Glennon or pull the trigger on a passer in the first round or two?
WR – Like a broken record, I keep begging year after year
for speed and elusiveness at the receiver position. It’s still lacking. Vincent Jackson has been a fine #1 given the
team’s QB play, but there are questions about Mike Williams’ commitment. At a minimum, they need to difference-making
slot guy to play with these two. Worst
case scenario has them looking for someone to start in place of Williams.
TE – Tim Wright was a nice pass catcher, but he can’t
block. Tom Crabtree is a back up, and
Luke Stocker has to be a huge afterthought at this point.
OL – When the Bucs signed Carl Nicks, they thought they’d
have quite a formidable line, but it just never materialized. They have no idea what they’ll get from
Nicks, if anything, and Joseph’s play has taken a nosedive. Moving Jeremy Zuttah to guard and finding a
new center could be a possibility.
Donald Penn has his detractors, but left tackle is far from the team’s
biggest weakness. Right tackle Demar
Dotson had a fabulous year and may be the most certain thing they’ve got going
up front. .
DL – Adrian Clayborn has been ok, but the Bucs need more
pass rushers. Da’Quan Bowers has been a
waste, but on a positive note, William Gholston looks like a building
block. That’s only two, possibly,
reliable rushers. I expect this to be
the Bucs priority in free agency. Gerald
McCoy should only excel under Lovie Smith and Leslie Frazier, and Akeem Spence
should benefit from the coaching change as well. They’re shallow inside, so they’ll add a
tackle or two.
LB – Lavonte David is a stud, but I continue to believe they
need to get better than Mason Foster in the middle. I’m guessing the new regime will look to do
that. Every other Bucs linebacker with a
name you’d recognize is a free agent. Of
that bunch, it would be best to bring back Dekoda Watson on the strong side.
CB – Darrelle Revis is back, but there’s a steep drop off in
talent after him. Johnthan Banks didn’t
exactly shine as a rookie, and Leonard Johnson should be lower on the depth
chart. Ideally, they get new starters
opposite Revis and in the slot, and Banks and Johnson develop as backups.
I believe the Bucs currently sit at about $12mil under the
’14 cap after the round of releases that included Derek Landri. Where can they find more cap space? They can free up about $5mil by cutting both
Connor Barth and Michael Koenen. Aside
from that, there’s not a ton of fat to trim from this cap aside from two
obvious targets –
Davin Joseph - $6mil
As I mentioned above, Joseph’s play has fallen off
significantly, and I don’t see any way he’s back for anything close to that
amount. It’s probably best for the team
to move on from him altogether and pay
someone else less to do a better job.
Donald Penn - $7.4mil
Yes, I know. I just
mentioned that Penn isn’t one of the team’s bigger problems. I’m not advocating releasing Penn, but maybe
he’d be open to extending his deal that currently is set to expire after the
’15 season at a lower annual rate. It
wouldn’t be a $7.4mil cap savings, but they could conceivably get a couple of
million to go towards another position by restructuring Penn’s contract.
If they start over at kicker and punter, cut Joseph and
either restructure Penn or make a couple of other small moves, they would be
looking at more $25mil in cap space heading into the offseason.
Here are the specific free agents I’d key on:
Everson Griffen (DE, Vikings)
Willie Young (DE, Lions)
Corey Wootton (DE, Bears)
Here’s where I’m struggling.
They almost sure to add a free agent, but on what side will they put
him? Jared Allen plays the same side as
Clayborn, and it doesn’t make sense to either bench our best pass rusher or
weaken the run defense by playing Allen on the strong side. He’d be the big name veteran I’d be
interested in giving a short term deal.
I wouldn’t feel comfortable giving Julius Peppers or Just Tuck a lot of
money, Greg Hardy isn’t coming here, and Michael Bennett isn’t coming
back. I’d prefer to see the Bucs go the
younger route. Young isn’t terribly
likely given that he’d be on the same side as Clayborn, but I mention him
because I’ve always been a fan of his talent.
I like the idea of pairing Griffen with Gholston on the left side. He’s not going to cost a lot and is someone
who has shown steady, albeit slow development as a pass rusher. If he doesn’t perform up to expectations, the
Bucs won’t be in the huge financial hole like they would if they went the
Peppers or Tuck route. Assuming I’m not
completely underestimating his market, Griffen is a low risk high reward
option.
Vance Walker (DT, Raiders)
Henry Melton (DT, Bears)
I’ll be shocked if the Bucs commit much to DT this
offseason. Maybe Melton finds a soft
market coming off his injury. Walker continues to be a
reliable rotational piece on the defensive line wherever he plays and would
bolster the run defense.
Alex Mack (C, Browns)
Geoff Schwartz (G, Chiefs)
Anthony Collins (T, Bengals)
I don’t want to get rid of Zuttah, but it’s possible for
them to upgrade two positions with one signing.
Early reports on Nicks are positive, so maybe he’ll be a factor after
all. There should still be one vacant
guard position. Zuttah has seen most of
his time away from center at left guard, but he has played a handful of games
at right guard. Could he handle that
switch and play next to Mack, an attractive free agent with new Tampa ties? Mack is arguably the game’s best center and
would go a long way in helping this new coaching staff implement their
offense. Ultimately, I think he’ll be
out of the Bucs price range. I don’t
know if the Bucs will look to free agency to solve their guard situation, but
Schwartz would be a steal and nice plug in on the right side. He was a big factor in Kansas City ’s success on offense and made
just $700k last year. Collins isn’t
really an option as a back up, but he’s the only free agent tackle I’d
consider.
Sam Shields (CB, Packers)
Alterraun Verner (CB, Titans)
Corey Graham (CB, Ravens)
Corner play opposite Revis wasn’t pretty in ’13, and I’ll be
disappointed if they don’t bring in a legit starter this offseason. If we were playing with monopoly money and no
salary cap, Brent Grimes would be my preferred target. Since we aren’t, maybe Shields and Verner
will be affordable. They’re both young
corners with a lot of experience and are sure to attract a bit of attention,
but the corner market didn’t exactly go crazy last offseason. Maybe they’ll be affordable after all. I’d slot Graham behind Shields and Verner,
but he would be a solid sneaky addition, in my opinion. He could start in Tampa ;
something he won’t do next year in Baltimore . Charles Tillman would be a fall-back and a
shorter term option, but he may be the most likely of the names I’ve
mentioned.
Jeremy Maclin (WR, Eagles)
Andre Roberts (WR, Cardinals)
Jacoby Jones (WR, Ravens)
Dexter McCluster (WR, Chiefs)
I’ve always been a Maclin fan, and he’ll probably be had on
a cheap prove-it deal. Jones is still
big in the punt return game, and while he’s never reached his potential as a
receiver, he’d instantly be #3 on the depth chart and give Glennon a deep threat. McCluster would provide some of the increased
quickness I’m seeking, but he’s not a solution to anything. Of all available free agent receivers, Doug
Baldwin would be my preference, but he’s a restricted free agent and isn’t
getting out of Seattle . Since I can’t get Baldwin ,
I’ll focus on a similar receiver in Roberts; a guy who can play both inside and
out and make some plays for you in the middle and deep parts of the
secondary. Roberts has been a
consistent, reliable target and was productive when called upon as a starter;
something that’s not easy to do given the presence of Larry Fitzgerald and the
sloppy pre-Palmer QB play. There isn’t a
TE I’m interested in, especially since Fred Davis was just handed an indefinite
ban.
I’m sure I won’t be close, but here’s my attempt to blend my
wishes and expectations –
Everson Griffen (DE, Vikings)
Charles Tillman (CB, Bears)
Andre Roberts (WR, Cardinals)
Geoff Schwartz (G, Chiefs)
Vance Walker (DT, Raiders)
Dekoda Watson (LB, re-sign)
Eric Lorig (FB, re-sign)
I think that’s pretty doable with a guesstimated $25mil in
cap space, even with $5mil allocated to the draft. There should be plenty of cap room for the
Bucs to pull off these moves considering the salary cap for ’14 was just
increased from $123mil to $130mil.
Transitioning to the draft, here are my early thoughts on
the first 7 selections. The NFL Combine
starts Saturday, so I’m sure a lot of this will change in the coming
weeks.
1) Houston
Texans
Key Needs – QB, OL, LB, CB
The Texans won’t take an offensive lineman or cornerback with
the first pick. For me, this one is down
to Jadeveon Clowney or a QB, and if we’re supposed to believe reports that the
owner is pushing for a passer, I’m siding with the guy who writes the checks. Which QB is still uncertain, but knowing what
I know about Bill O’Brien and his connections to the UCF staff. They’ll upset a lot of folks in Texas by passing on
Johnny Manziel, but I’m going to go with…..Blake Bortles (QB, UCF)
2) Cleveland
Browns (via STL)
Key Needs – QB, RB, LB, WR
This pick is an obvious trade spot, so I’ll go ahead and
predict that one happens. Right or wrong
the Rams remain committed to Sam Bradford, so they won’t be taking a QB this
year. There isn’t a team that couldn’t
use Clowney, but if I’m a Rams fan I’d rather they address a true area of
weakness rather than allocating more assets to the one thing they do
right. I could see Cleveland’s new
regime taking an aggressive approach to securing their (hopeful) franchise QB,
and they have the draft picks to do pull it off…..Teddy Bridgewater (QB,
Louisville)
3) Jacksonville
Jaguars
Key Needs – QB, DE, RB, OL
Take a QB right?
Neither Blaine Gabbert nor Chad Henne belongs taking a regular season
snap, but I don’t think the Jags are an absolute lock to take a passer with
their first pick, even if Cleveland
doesn’t trade ahead of them. Everyone
knows they need a QB, but more importantly, they need a sure thing. To many, this guy is the surest thing in the
draft, and he also fills a huge need for the Jags…..Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina )
4) St. Louis
Rams (via CLE)
Key Needs – OT, WR, S, CB
This is where I think the Watkins watch could start. Pairing him with Tavon Austin could lead to
some highlights in St. Louis ,
but whether it’s Bradford or someone else handling the football, they’ve got to
get him some protection. Jake Long is
coming off a torn ACL, and RT Rodger Saffold is a free agent. Greg Robinson might have the higher ceiling,
but I believe this guy will have a quicker assimilation period, has experience
at both left and right tackle, and has a father with ties to the head coach…..Jake
Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
5) Oakland
Raiders
Key Needs – QB, DE, CB, RB
6) Atlanta
Falcons
Key Needs – OT, DE, DT, TE
Will they take a tackle after shelling out a lot of money
for Sam Baker last year? I’m guessing
no. They must get better up front on
defense, especially considering their best pass rusher is a fading Osi
Umenyiora. They have to draft or sign
someone who can get after Brees and Newton . I think this comes down to either Anthony
Barr or…..Khalil Mack (DE/OLB, Buffalo )
7) Tampa
Bay
Key Needs – QB, DL, CB, WR
I’ve got the top QBs off the board at this point, but if the
Bucs had a shot at either Bortles or Bridgewater ,
I’ve got to think they would give them a ton of consideration. I don’t think Manziel is a Lovie or Tedford
pick, and while Derek Carr has Tedford ties, I’m far from sold on him. I’m intrigued by Mack, but I’m not sure where
he’d fit in Lovie’s defense. Right now,
if I can’t get Bortles, Bridgewater ,
or Clowney I’ve got my eyes on three players:
Greg Robinson (T, Auburn )
If he’s not the first tackle taken, he’ll be the
second. Robinson would give the Bucs a
replacement for Penn at LT and free up a lot of cap space. If I can plead Penn’s case, I’d hate to dump
a guy that is in the better half of players at his position in what could be a
sink or swim year for Glennon. Still,
Robinson’s upside would be pretty hard to ignore. He’s big, strong, and can move. That’s still a rare combination of skills for
a tackle. It’s hard for some to get
excited about taking a tackle with your first choice, but Robinson could be the
smartest use of the pick; high ceiling and floor. I listed Robinson because he hadn’t been
picked yet in this instance, but Matthews would warrant similar consideration.
Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Should the Bucs choose to go receiver here, they’ll likely have first pick at what looks to be a pretty deep class. Watkins would give the Bucs something they don’t have – a multi-threat player with incredible vertical speed. He isn’t just a speed guy though. Watkins gets physical when needed, especially at the point of catch, and his strong build will help him hold up well to the hits he’ll take as a pro. I see him being a huge red zone weapon for whoever drafts him; something the Bucs could use. Watkins would be the explosive talent I’ve been pining for. Just having him on the field and making the defense think about him will open things up for the rest of the offense.
Should the Bucs choose to go receiver here, they’ll likely have first pick at what looks to be a pretty deep class. Watkins would give the Bucs something they don’t have – a multi-threat player with incredible vertical speed. He isn’t just a speed guy though. Watkins gets physical when needed, especially at the point of catch, and his strong build will help him hold up well to the hits he’ll take as a pro. I see him being a huge red zone weapon for whoever drafts him; something the Bucs could use. Watkins would be the explosive talent I’ve been pining for. Just having him on the field and making the defense think about him will open things up for the rest of the offense.
Kony Ealy (DE, Missouri )
I’ve pointed out the Bucs need for a pass rusher or two, and
with Clowney off the board, I think Ealy might be the best remaining option for
the Bucs. You probably won’t find a mock
that has him going this high, but I expect that to change the closer we get to
May. Ealy is an athletic pass rusher often
lazily compared to former Missou Tiger, Aldon Smith. He shows plus change of direction; impressive
for his size and important for his position. I like how Ealy uses his length and hands off
the edge, but he needs to be more consistent in anchoring with his hips and
legs to be more effective in both setting the edge against the run and getting
to the passer. He’s got great short area
closing speed for a guy with his build, but I think he needs a bit of coaching
and a lot of reps against grown men to see if he’s a really good football
player or if he’s just a really good athlete.
As you see, Ealy has impressive positives but is still rather incomplete
as a football player.
Others I didn’t list –
·
Timmy Jernigan (DT, FSU) I love but don’t want
to take GMC backup at #7.
·
Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M) is duplicative
with Vincent Jackson.
·
Anthony Barr (DE/OLB, UCLA) see Khalil Mack.
·
CJ Mosley (LB, Alabama ) don’t see him as a 4-3 MLB; already
have David at WLB.
·
Marquise Lee (WR, USC) worries me when it comes to
staying healthy.
In making my decision, Ealy is the first one out. I believe the Bucs will address this position
prior to the draft and will roll with Clayborn, Gholston, Bowers, and a free
agent. If they do add a pass rusher, I’m
guessing it’s with a later pick.
Deciding between Robinson and Watkins, one of the first
things I have to consider is how much better the Bucs would be with Robinson
instead of Penn. The veteran has been a target for Bucs fans,
but he’s still among the better left tackles in the game. How long would it take to say the same about
Robinson? Not hating, but potential and
performance are two different things. Could
the Bucs’ next left tackle currently be playing on the right side of the
line? Lovie is already talking about
giving Demar Dotson reps at LT in camp.
Watkins is probably the most electrifying offensive talent
in this draft, and the Bucs lack of said talent has had them behind the rest of
the league for the last couple of years.
Adding Watkins makes the Bucs a better team than replacing Penn with Robinson
or Matthews. I did mention Roberts as a
free agent target, but there is the Mike Williams factor. He’s far from on firm footing with the new
regime, and his contract takes a huge $4mil increase in ’15. I can’t count on him to see anywhere close to
the end of that deal. After watching
some of the “receivers” this team has run out there in recent years, I’d
welcome the complaints of too many weapons and not enough footballs.
R1 pick – Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Buccaneer Surprise – Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina )
I wouldn’t do it, but I think the one pick that could
surprise us is the Bucs taking UNC’s stud TE at #7. There’s a big talent need at the position,
and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucs be aggressive in addressing
it.
REST OF DRAFT
R2 – Lamarcus Joyner (CB, FSU)
Yeah, I know, a Nole.
Get over it. I think Joyner is
the perfect defender for what Lovie is likely to do in Tampa .
Let’s first talk about the elephant in the room – Joyner’s size. He’s listed at 5-8, 180 which would obviously
put him on the small side. If you’ve
watched more than a few minutes of FSU football you’ve noticed that Joyner
plays far bigger in his size. Joyner
draws a lot of Ronde Barber comparisons, and they make sense. He’s a dangerous blitzer, is fast and can
change directions quickly, covers a ton of ground, has excellent ball
anticipation, and isn’t afraid pop you.
He’s understandably a drag-down tackler, given his size, but he stays
with his man to secure the tackle. He’ll
be a stud on special teams. Lovie’s
defenses have been predicated on fast guys making plays in space, and Joyner
certainly fits that description and would be an immediate upgrade at the nickel
corner and third safety spot.
Other options –
Troy Niklas (TE, Notre Dame)
Kyle Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech)
R4 – CJ Fiedorowicz (TE, Iowa )
Due to a dry free agent market, I think it’s pretty likely
the Bucs will spend a pick on the tight end position. Here I’m giving them a player with great size
who could be their traditional in-line tight end to pair with the flexed out
Tim Wright. Fiedorowicz would be the
team’s best blocking tight end as soon as he put on a jersey and has plenty of
pass catching potential as well.
R5 – Jon Halapio (G, Florida )
It’s a tad painful to do this, but I want to get a lineman
in the draft and this is a good spot for Halapio. He’s a guy who logged a ton of starts against
impressive competition and could be in the mix for early playing time depending
on the situation at right guard.
R7 – Connor Shaw (QB, S Carolina )
I don’t think the Bucs will have a shot at Bortles or Bridgewater , but that
doesn’t mean I’m giving up on a passer.
I’d rather spend a 7th round pick on Shaw than sign a veteran
back up. Shaw is a winner. I love the combination of his mobility and
how he takes care of the football.
Simply put, he doesn’t make many mistakes. If he gets an opportunity to play in the NFL,
I think he’s going to surprise a lot of people.
I like him as a passer now, but I think he’s got plenty of room for
growth there still.
With this plan, I’ve got the Bucs addressing every position
of need except MLB. It’s rare that a
team is able to address every need in one offseason, and I’ll be pleased if
they fill most of the gaps I mentioned.
Combined offseason acquisitions:
Everson Griffen (DE, Vikings)
Vance Walker (DT, Raiders)
Dekoda Watson (LB, re-sign)
Charles Tillman (CB, Bears)
Lamarcus Joyner (CB, FSU)
Connor Shaw (QB, S Carolina )
Eric Lorig (FB, re-sign)
Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Andre Roberts (WR, Cardinals)
CJ Fiedorowicz (TE, Iowa )
Geoff Schwartz (G, Chiefs)
Jon Halapio (G, Florida )
Go Bucs!
