Much has happened since my first attempt to predict what the
Buccaneer’s roster will look like in 2014.
Jason Licht and Lovie Smith have been hard at work turning it over and
making it theirs. Hell, we’ve even got
new helmets and uniforms, but that’s a whole other conversation.
Josh McCown rejoins Lovie and will be the teams’ bridge to
their next, hopefully franchise, QB.
Anthony Collins and Evan Dietrich-Smith are upgrades upon Donald Penn
and Jeremy Zuttah, and they cost less than their predecessors. Brandon Myers becomes the most experienced
tight end on the roster.
On defense, Michael Johnson was brought in to increase the
teams edge pass rush presence, Clinton McDonald improves the play next to GMC,
and Alterraun Verner replaces the one year waste of money and draft picks,
Darrelle Revis.
There’s still work to do.
I don’t believe for a second that Mike Glennon has a future
in Tampa . I think the Bucs will draft McCown’s
successor and look to move Glennon, possibly during the draft to obtain another
ick. Licht and Lovie have already begun
quite the overhaul, and with only six draft picks, I’ve got to think they’ll
make every effort to acquire more.
Glennon is their most valuable asset that they can and would most likely
trade.
Mike Jenkins and DJ Moore are two veteran corners brought in
this offseason, but I believe the Bucs are mistaken if they feel either is up
to the task of the role of slot corner.
Moore would likely start there if a game broke out today, but I don’t
think it’s wise to rely on a guy who was out of football last year to be the
needed upgrade over Leonard Johnson.
Lovie has also stated that his boundary corners will be boundary
corners, which means Verner, a reputable slot corner, will not slide inside
when they go nickel.
The Bucs needed help at receiver before they moved on from
Mike Williams. There’s a wide talent gap
between Vincent Jackson and the rest of the receivers. Chris Owusu belongs at the bottom of the
depth chart, and Tommy Streeter remains unrealized potential. Louis Murphy and a personal favorite, Lavelle
Hawkins, were added to compete, but in an ideal world, they’re fighting for one
roster spot.
Oneil Cousins follows OL coach George Warhop to Tampa , but like the
receivers above, he’s camp competition.
The same goes for the re-signed Jamon Meredith. The Bucs are hoping Carl Nicks can suit up at
left guard, but they need to at add least one more starting caliber guard.
You can never have enough pass rushers, and I’d like to have
a tight end who doesn’t tip plays. I’d
still like to upgrade over Mason Foster, but I think his competition will come
from Dane Fletcher rather than the draft.
Dashon Goldson might go the way of Penn, Williams, and Zuttah next year,
but I don’t expect the Bucs to spend a day one or two pick on the position this
year.
What will the Bucs do at #7?
That’s the question on Bucs fans’ minds.
Below is my take on the draft’s first 38 picks as well as what the Bucs
will do with all of theirs. To make
things as entertaining as possible yet remain fairly realistic, I’ve included
trades, quite a few. Might the Bucs be
involved in such a scenario? Let’s find
out.
Round 1
1) Houston
Texans – Blake Bortles (QB, UCF)
I’m still going with Bortles as the Texans pick to kick
things off. Ryan Fitzpatrick was brought
in to be the bridge/backup to whoever they draft this year, and I think that’s
going to be Bortles. Clowney is the only
other way I’d go with this. He may not
be an ideal 3-4 OLB, but Romeo Crennel would find a way to maximize his
talents.
2) Atlanta Falcons (TRADE) –
Jadeveon Clowney (DE, S Carolina )
Again I have the Rams trading out of this spot, but this
time I’m going with the Falcons to move up and get their pass rusher. There are connections between the two front
offices, and they even consummated a trade in last year’s draft.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars –
Khalil Mack (DE/OLB, Buffalo )
Last time I had the Jags passing on a passer for
Clowney. I still think they go with a
pass rusher and address QB with a later pick.
While they have brought in a couple of Gus Bradley’s former Seahawks,
the Jags aren’t suddenly pass rush rich.
Here they take the remaining consensus-elite defender. I even think they’d take Watkins before any
of the QBs.
4) Cleveland
Browns – Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
Sorry Bucs fans. I
don’t think Watkins makes it to #7. In
fact, I see three teams more likely to end up with him than the Bucs. If the Browns or Raiders don’t take Watkins,
I think Detroit will maneuver ahead of Tampa Bay
5) Oakland Raiders – Aaron
Donald (DT, Pittsburgh )
Surprising no one, the draft’s first swerve comes from Oakland . Their roster is the most depressing in the
league and needs help literally everywhere.
Taking one of the top tackles would be my alternate route, but acquiring
arguably the drafts best interior rusher is a great way for a team that defines
the word ‘rebuilding’ to start doing just that.
6) St. Louis Rams (TRADE) –
Jake Matthews (T, Texas
A&M)
I had the Rams selecting Matthews last time, and I’m
sticking with it here. Robinson has
received more air time during draft season, but I still think Matthews is the
smarter pick.
7) Baltimore Ravens (TRADE) –
Mike Evans (WR, Texas
A&M)
Yes, the Bucs move down.
Evans would address the departure of Williams, but I believe there is
better value in trading down. Ozzie
Newsome finally gets his replacement for Anquan Boldin, and combined with
Torrey Smith, a healthy Dennis Pitta, and the recently-acquired Steve Smith,
gives the Joe Flacco an impressive arsenal that may need to lean more on the
passing game, depending upon what happens with Ray Rice’s off-field
situation. To make the move down the
board to #17, I have the Bucs picking up Baltimore ’s
picks in round one, two, and four.
8) New York Giants (TRADE)
– Greg Robinson (T, Auburn )
I think Minnesota
is very eager to move down, and having Robinson remain on the board should help
their cause. The Giants really need to
turn things around, and while Robinson isn’t going to score a lot of touchdowns
himself, most importantly the Giants needed to emerge from the first round with
a great player. Moving up for Robinson
helps them do that.
9) Buffalo
Bills – Zack Martin (OL, Notre Dame)
The Bills are often good for a surprise pick on draft day,
and they continue the tradition here. I
don’t think Martin is a bad pick but one that would surprise a lot of people
who take prospect rankings as fact. Martin
gives the Bills options on the left side with Cordy Glenn.
10) Detroit Lions – Ha Ha
Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama )
Failing to trade up for Watkins or Evans, the Lions here
look to upgrade the secondary. Pass
rusher or cornerback would be my other guesses, but I think getting a player
with Ha Ha’s upside would be a good use of this pick.
11) Tennessee Titans –
Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma
State
Gilbert appears to have solidified his place atop the list
of cornerbacks and would fill an immediate need. The Titans are often linked to Anthony Barr,
and while they could use a talent upgrade at the position, they already have
four OLBs that are likely to make the team.
12) Minnesota Vikings – CJ
Mosley (LB, Alabama )
By trading down four spots the Vikings gain a pick or two
and still get the player I think they’d be happy to select at #8. I don’t believe they’re interested in any of
the day one QBs and will instead select Zach Mettenberger on day two.
13) St. Louis
Rams – Odell Beckham (WR, LSU)
Rather than taking Watkins or Evans with their first pick, I
think it would be wiser for the Rams to take their highest rated lineman there
and then grab Beckham here. Beckham is
my second rated WR behind Watkins and gives Sam Bradford the best receiver he’s
had as a pro. I think Beckham is going
to be really special.
14) Cleveland Browns (TRADE)
– Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas
A&M)
What a first day for the Browns. They get Watkins with their first pick and
are able to package their other first rounder and additional picks to swap
spots with the Bears and get their QB.
Johnny Football sits in the green room longer than he’d have liked, but
he’s got to like the prospects of throwing to Josh Gordon, Watkins, and Jordan
Cameron.
15) Philadelphia
Eagles (TRADE) – Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA)
Yes, another trade.
The Eagles are reportedly looking to upgrade their pass rush and have
targeted former Chip Kelly Duck, Dion Jordan.
If they don’t acquire the third overall pick from last year’s draft, I
could see them making this move for Barr.
I’m not a fan of his game, but maybe Kelly is.
16) Dallas Cowboys – Taylor
Lewan (T, Michigan )
The Cowboys have seen just about all they want to see from
Doug Free, so an upgrade at right tackle is high on their list of
priorities. I could see Jerry Jones
targeting Lewan or Martin with his first round pick before a defensive player.
17) Tampa
Bay
With the agonizing additional ten pick wait having passed,
the Bucs are now on the clock again.
Watkins, Clowney, and Mack are what I would consider the elite of the
elite in this year’s draft, and with them off the board at #7, I would hope the
Bucs exhaust all efforts to deal down.
I’ve mentioned QB, WR, G, and CB as the greatest positions of need, in
my opinion, and see the Bucs targeting either a passer or a pass catcher in
round one over one of the top tackles.
Do Licht and Lovie prefer Evans or more picks with which to continue
their Buccaneeer makeover?
The pick – Derek Carr (QB, Fresno State
I still have Bortles as my #1 QB, but I’m in on Carr as
well. He fits what Tedford will look to
do offensively and hopefully gives the Bucs the franchise QB they’ve been
pursuing since Brad Johnson left. Having
McCown in house affords Carr a year to assimilate himself to the pro game and
get even more on the same page with Tedford.
The QB-OC relationship is critical, and I couldn’t see a better fit in
that regard. I don’t believe the Bucs
are interested in Bortles, Bridgewater ,
or Manziel and will rather look to draft Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Connor Shaw.
18) New York Jets – Eric
Ebron (TE, North Carolina )
This may be a little later than expected for Ebron, but he’s
a guy I think will slide a bit on day one.
The Jets would be happy to see it happen, as they’re desperate for
offensive playmakers.
19) San Francisco (TRADE) –
Brandin Cooks (WR, Oregon
State
The Niners have plenty of picks in this year’s draft to move
up and get their guy and are looking to upgrade receiver and cornerback. Here I have them making a deal with the
Dolphins to move up and get a dynamic receiver to line up inside boundary
playmakers Boldin and Crabtree. They’re
really lacking behind their two starters, and Cooks gives them someone else for
the Seahawks and the rest of the NFC to scheme against.
20) Arizona Cardinals –
Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville )
I don’t think the Cardinals will spend their first pick on
an offensive lineman, so if they don’t’ take a pass rusher, I think they’ll
look to solidify the safety spot next to Tyrann Mathieu. I see Pryor as a really nice fit.
21) Green Bay Packers –
RaShede Hageman (DT, Minnesota )
Ted Thompson hopes to pull off some more draft magic and get
the good RaShede Hageman, the day one prospect generating the most polar
predictions.
22) Pittsburgh
Steelers (TRADE) – Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame)
Defensive line and cornerback are the two areas I think Pittsburgh will look to
address first, and they take the anchor they’ve needed since Casey Hampton fell
off a few years ago.
23) Kansas City
Chiefs – Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
The Chiefs finally get a viable target to pair with Dwayne
Bowe. I’m not sure how much longer they
can continue to win by giving Jamaal Charles 99% of their offensive
touches.
24) Cincinnati Bengals – Kony
Ealy (DE, Missouri )
I’m going with a defensive end over a cornerback here. Ealy helps make up for the loss of Johnson
and gives them a versatile presence up front.
25) San Diego
Chargers – Kyle Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech)
I think Fuller ends up going higher than this, but it didn’t
happen here. If not a corner, then Nix
might get consideration if available.
26) Chicago
Bears (TRADE) – Timmy Jernigan (DT, FSU)
Defensive line and secondary are the focus early on. I think Chicago
would pass on a DB to get a DT who can step in contribute right away.
27) New Orleans Saints – Dee
Ford (DE/OLB, Auburn )
Dee Ford may think he’s as good as Clowney, but talent
evaluators believe otherwise. If not a
pass rusher, a receiver like Benjamin wouldn’t surprise me.
28) Carolina Panthers – Cyrus
Kouandjio (T, Alabama )
It’s unknown how individual teams feel about Kouandjio’s
health, but if his knee checks out, he’s quite a value at a high need position.
29) New England Patriots – Jace Amaro (TE, Texas A&M)
Maybe this is too common of a pick, but it makes a ton of
sense. With or without Gronk, the
Patriots need to add a move-TE to the roster.
Amaro could be really dangerous in this offense.
30) Miami
Dolphins (TRADE) – Morgan Moses (T, Virginia Tech)
The Dolphins signed a former Hokie in free agency to man the
left tackle position, so it would only make sense to draft a former Hokie to
fill the void at right tackle.
31) Jacksonville Jaguars
(TRADE) – Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, E Illinois )
The Jags get antsy and move up with Denver to grab Garoppolo. Teddy Bridgewater remains unselected.
32) Seattle
Seahawks – Kelvin Benjamin (WR, FSU)
Benjamin fills a need and would be a perfect fit for the
champs, lining up with the dynamic Harvin and underrated Baldwin .
END ROUND ONE
Round 2
33) Houston Texans – Demarcus
Lawrence (OLB, Boise
State
If they don’t take Clowney #1, I could see the Texans taking
a pass rusher like Lawrence or Georgia Tech’s Jeremiah Attaochu here.
34) Washington Redskins –
Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio
State
The Redskins badly need to upgrade their defensive backs and
defensive backs coach. They can only
address one of them in the draft and grab the corner from Ohio State
35) Chicago Bears (TRADE) –
Jimmie Ward (S, N Illinois )
After addressing the defensive line with Jernigan, the Bears
take Ward with a pick obtained in my hypothetical trade with Cleveland .
36) Oakland Raiders – Teddy
Bridgewater (QB, Louisville )
Finally. This looks
awfully low for Bridgewater ,
but who really knows when any of these QBs will be picked? This has to be the most uncertain and
non-consensus QB class in quite some time.
37) St. Louis
Rams – Jason Verrett (CB, TCU)
After getting Matthews and Beckham with their first two
picks, the Rams get a really tough corner who will play a lot early and provide
them with insurance should Trumaine Johnson struggle as a starter opposite
Janoris Jenkins.
38) Tampa
Bay
Best available at WR, DL, and CB is where I’m looking both
here and with the #48 pick, the second rounder obtained from the Ravens in that
first round trade. Of those three
positions, receiver is the clearest need.
I mention DL because I think Lovie really wants to beef up that front
and could get an impact player in this round.
I rank cornerback as a higher need than most, but I’m simply not
impressed with what the Bucs have other than Verner. Of the players I’ve got going off the board
in this vicinity, I think Benjamin and Verrett would both interest the Bucs
quite a bit.
Given that Vincent Jackson is the only starting caliber
receiver on the roster, I think the Bucs will have a tough time waiting any
later to address the position. If I’m
picking a wideout here, and Benjamin isn’t in play, I’ve got it down to three
players – Davante Adams, Donte Moncrief, and Allen Robinson. What are the Bucs likely looking for?
They need a starter; someone who can be today’s #2 and
possibly tomorrow’s #1. They want a
receiver with speed in space who can gain separation and win downfield. I’m also going to assume that Lovie will
influence catch radius and winning the battle at the point of catch. Who checks the most boxes?
As much as I like Robinson, he’s the first one
eliminated. I think he would interest
Lovie as someone who plays with a lot of physicality and wins at the point of
contact, but how much will his lack of separation hurt him in the pros? I’d be happy if he was the pick, but I think
the Bucs are going to look for a receiver with a better chance of developing
into a #1.
Moncrief and Adams better fit that mold. I’m a huge Moncrief fan. I believe that in three years, he will be at
worst the fifth most productive receiver from this class. I think Moncrief has a higher upside and
played with a lot more physicality in college than Adams . On the other hand, Adams
is a more consistent and fundamentally sound pass catcher and does a better job
of winning aerial battles for the ball.
I love how he snatches it out of the air from a variety of positions on
the field; shows very reliable hands. If
the Bucs indeed take Carr in the first round, you’ve got to think that couldn’t
hurt Adams ’ chances of being the pick.
In the end I think Licht and Lovie would take who they see
as the safer of the two options. Although
I like Moncrief more, I’m guessing that would be….
Davante Adams (WR, Fresno State
Pick #48
I’m having a really hard time trying to decide between two
players with this hypothetical second rounder from Baltimore .
I’ve listed slot corner as a need for the Bucs on more than
one occasion and believe that Lamarcus Joyner would be an ideal fit in Lovie’s
defense. He can cover the slot, support
the run, blitz the passer, contribute on special teams, and potentially, see
time at safety as well. That last item
could be of importance depending upon what Licht and Lovie think of Goldson’s
future with the team.
Back and forth I’ve gone on this, and I’m sure I will
again. As much as I love Joyner, I
wouldn’t be able to pass up Dominique Easley if he were to be here for the Bucs
to take with an additional second rounder.
As I type this he has yet to work out for teams, and we don’t know much
about his knee. Given the type of talent
he was prior to his injury and how quickly and successfully he recovered from
his first ACL injury, he’s a steal and a damn good addition to a young
defensive line.
The pick – Dominique Easley (DT, Florida )
Round 3
Offensive line and cornerback are two positions of need I’ve
yet to address, but I don’t love the projected value at those positions in this
round. Dakota Dozier is the only guard
I’d target in this range, and I don’t know enough about him to make a case for
the guy. Jaylen Watkins might be the
best value at corner in this round, but I can’t go there for fear of
Gooberville overload.
I still want the Bucs to get a tight end, and CJ Fiedorowicz,
the guy I listed as the Bucs fourth round pick in my last mock, is my favorite
for them. He’s an underutilized pass
catcher who would be the teams’ best blocking tight end the moment he signed. Lots of upside there I think.
Instead I pass for who I believe to be a better talent as a
position, and specifically a skill, in which the Bucs are lacking. I’ll keep my rant short. I’ve been pining for a quick/elusive talent
for some time, and Tedford is, thankfully, looking for receivers with that
ability. Here they get a really tough
slot guy with a ton of potential. He
doesn’t shy away from contact and runs like a running back with the ball in his
hands. Like Adams ,
I think he’ll be attractive to Lovie due to his ability to make contested
catches.
The pick – Bruce Ellington (WR, South Carolina )
Round 4
The Bucs still don’t have a fourth round pick, but I gave
them one in this mock trade with the Ravens.
If they have yet to address the cornerback position and have a chance to
do so here, my target would be Rashaad Reynolds. If the Bucs can’t get Joyner, I think
Reynolds brings that same style of play as an undersized physical corner who
can cover, support the run, and line up in multiple spots.
I hate to keep taking player with medical issues, but if
Clemson’s Brandon Thomas is still on the board at this point, you’ve got to
think he’s worth the investment, even if you don’t get anything from him this
year. Thomas was viewed as a rising
talent in the draft capable of playing both tackle and guard in the NFL. EJ Gaines from Missouri is the other corner I’d consider if
Reynolds isn’t available. Two more
players I like in this area (rounds 3-5) are Terrence Brooks and Christian
Jones. Yes, two Noles. Brooks would be a great fit at free safety,
and Jones could provide competition at both SLB and MLB.
The pick – Rashaad Reynolds (CB, Oregon State
Round 5
I understand the situation at guard. Carl Nicks is a huge question mark, and Oneil
Cousins better not be starting on the right side. Still, I’m simply not in love at all with the
guard talent in this draft. Despite the
need at the position, I cannot justify spending earlier picks on inferior
talent at the expense of other positions of need.
Here I think the Bucs can get a guy like Anthony Steen from Alabama or Jon Halapio from Florida .
I’ve been on the Halapio bandwagon a while, but I think Steen might
offer more of what this coaching staff is looking for. Steen doesn’t have superstar athleticism, but
I think he has a fairly high floor as someone with incredible strength and consistent
technique.
The pick – Anthony Steen (G, Alabama )
Round 6
With the Mike Williams pick I’m taking a shot on one of the
few TE prospects I like in this draft.
This guy is a big bodied TE who offers a lot of upside in both the
receiving in blocking games. If they
haven’t taken a corner yet, I would target Bene Benewikere from San Jose State
The pick – Crockett Gillmore (TE, Colorado State
Round 7
Like most seventh round picks, this one is really a shot in
the dark. The Bucs need depth on the
offensive line more than anywhere else, so here I’m taking a shot on a guy who
was a captain and brings a lot of natural strength to the position. John Brown of Pittsburgh State
The pick – Corey Linsley (C, Ohio State
Summary
R1 – Derek Carr (QB, Fresno State
R2a – Davonte Adams (WR, Fresno State
R2b – Dominique Easley (DT, Florida )
R3 – Bruce Ellington (WR, South Carolina )
R4 – Rashaad Reynolds (CB, Oregon State
R5 – Anthony Steen (G, Alabama )
R6 – Crockett Gillmore (TE, Colorado St )
R7 – Corey Linsley (C, Ohio State
I get a hopeful franchise QB, a steal of a pass rusher, and two
receivers who can contribute right away.
I also address other needs with a potential slot corner, two offensive
linemen, and a tight end to develop behind Myers and Wright. The dual Fresno State Adams
on another college team, he’s still a stud.
His familiarity and success with Carr is a plus, not what makes him. I believe they’ll both excel in traditional
style pro offenses.
I realize predicting a trade of this nature for the Bucs
isn’t terribly likely. If it ends up
happening, maybe I need to go into another line of work. I did it to demonstrate the potential gains
of moving down the board in round one should the situation present itself and,
to be quite honest, to point out the prospects I’m high on at positions of
need.
Go Bucs!
