Crowded Backfield

...........

The one are of this team with suitable depth is the RB position. Earnest Graham is still slotted as the starter, but I believe Derrick Ward will finish the season with more touches. Not a bad 1-2 combo. Graham is the fan favorite vet, the late bloomer who came on strong in ’07 but had ’08 cut short due to injury. He’s a guy who’s shown the ability to take the ball into the teeth of the defense and gain positive yardage, and I’ve admired the way he seems to always fall forward, getting the most out of his runs. He also adds a reliable weapon to the passing game, totaling 72 receptions over 25 games the last two years. In addition, Graham has also shown the ability to fill in as a lead blocker if/when needed.

Ward comes to the Bucs after playing the dash to Brandon Jacobs’ smash for the Giants. He has slightly less career carries than Graham, but his YPC is a full yard better (5.1ypc vs. 4.1ypc). New York’s line has quite a bit to do with that, but Ward is a talented runner in his own right. Like Graham, Ward is no stranger to catching passes out of the backfield. With receiving numbers similar to Graham, Ward caught 68 passes over 24 games the last two years, averaging an impressive 9.4 yards per reception in ’08. Like Graham, Ward is a hard runner who always seems to get the most out of his totes.

Like I said, I still think Ward will finish with more touches, but I do believe that this carries-sharing scenario is better for both runners. Add to that the Bucs’ passing game weaknesses, and having two lead backs is a necessity, not a desire. Those two backs should account for the majority of the carries, but the Bucs have 3 other backs on their roster who could make some noise of their own in ’09.

Clifton Smith – The Pro Bowl return man brings another dimension to the offense. He’s a home run threat every time he touches the ball, but due to his tremendous contribution to special teams, I’ve been hesitant to want him included as a regular part of the backfield. I’d hate to see our dynamite return man get hurt in a “secondary role”. Well, I just may have to suck it up. The guy simply makes plays, and the Bucs are going to need all of them they can get this year. He’s a runner who can turn a 2 yard gain into a 20 yard scamper.

Carnell Williams – Coming off his second patellar tendon tear in two years, Williams is no longer being counted on as a major offensive contributor. I salute the man for the physical and mental strength to rehab and recover from not 1 but 2 major knee injuries, but how much more can he take? I’d like for him to prove me wrong, but I don’t see him contributing more than Clifton Smith in ’09. Is Williams going to be explosive? Can he take the pounding and physical stress on a weekly basis? Does a 27 year old back coming off 2 major knee injuries have any trade value? Is he worth keeping on the roster at the expense of a guy like…

Kareem Huggins – A.K.A. Mr. August 2009. The free agent product from Hofstra had quite an impressive debut for the Bucs, making quite a bit out of his 12 touches against the Titans. After dropping a catchable pass by Byron Leftwich, Huggins proceeded to turn in positive play after positive play. He’ll have to work a little harder on ball security, evidenced by his 4th quarter fumble, but all in all, there was a lot to like. Huggins (5-9, 198) runs harder than his size and showed the determination you want to see from a guy fighting for a roster spot. I look forward to seeing more of the same against the Jags this week.

So that leads me to my question. With Graham, Ward, and Smith likely to account for nearly all of the backfield carries, is there room or a dire need for Carnell Williams? Huggins can contribute on special teams; something you won’t see from Carnell. Huggins is also 4 years younger and isn’t coming off two major knee injuries. If the rookie continues to show promise out of the backfield, do the Bucs keep Carnell and chance getting Huggins on the practice squad, or will the youngster earn a spot on the final 53 and bring the Cadillac era in Tampa to an end?

There are a lot of questions surrounding the ’09 Buccaneers, but this is one I like.

Buccaneers Kick Off the 2009 Preseason

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw their first semi-meaningful action of the ’09 season on the road against the Tennessee Titans. Although they came up on the losing end of the 27-20 contest, there were more than a couple of bright spots in Raheem Morris’ coaching debut.

WHAT I LIKED

Byron Leftwich
Go ahead and call me biased because he’s the free agent QB I wanted the Bucs to bring in, but I think any reasonable fan would say that Leftwich had the better game. Yes, for the most part he was going against a lesser defense, but he was doing so, for the most part, with a second string offense. Leftwich showed the poise, pocket presence, and arm he’s known for.

His first pass of the game was a little behind tight end John Gilmore, but his rifle was evident. On the next play, Leftwich faked, pulling the defense to the right and then made a very strong throw back to the left, connecting with Brian Clark for a 24 yard TD. Leftwich demonstrated his poise under pressure on one play completing a short pass over the middle to Derrick Ward for 7 yards.

There were a couple of other plays that really don’t easily stand out as you watch them at game speed, but Leftwich showed the ability to calmly go through his reads and make the proper decisions. This is an area where Luke McCown has consistently struggled, and it was again on display tonight.

Leftwich almost became Tom Brady II when Jovan Haye went low on him. He shook off the hit, and on the next play, Leftwich shook off a couple defenders before going down for a loss of 17. I didn’t like the decision to hold onto the football, but I do like the toughness he showed after nearly getting taken out on the previous play. In the regular season, I’d be a bit more critical.

Cortez Hankton killed Byron’s 4th drive of the game, dropping a pass Leftwich placed where only Hankton could catch it. On his 5th and final drive of the game, Leftwich got a second chance after a personal foul by reserve DT Kevin Vickerson. Hefty Lefty proceeded to complete two passes to running back Kareem Huggins for 15 yards, setting up an impressive 51 yard first half ending FG by Mike Nugent.

Leftwich isn’t going to complete every pass he throws, but considering the lack of separation ability from the Bucs receivers, having Leftwich’s strong arm on the field may be the Bucs’ best chance of consistently putting up points.

Clifton Smith
Well, it is only the preseason, but I may (eventually) have to recant my “limit Clifton Smith’s touches” statement. Considering this team’s lack of weapons, I’ve repeatedly stated my desire to keep our Pro Bowl return man healthy and doing what he does best; give the Bucs tremendous field position. Well, Peanut looked like the Bucs’ best offensive weapon against the Titans.

The second year free agent signee just consistently makes plays. The young man turns empty plays into positive gains. 6, 10, 7, 3, 3, 5 – those were the yards gained on his touches. He brings the ideal combination of straight-ahead running and the shiftiness to shake a guy in short space to move ahead for a couple extra yards. There are zero wasted steps with this guy’s game.

It was only one outing, but I really liked the chemistry between Leftwich and Smith. Hopefully we see more of that when Leftwich draws the start next week in his homecoming against the Jags.

Sabby Piscitelli
The first defensive series of the year for the Bucs was owned by Sabby Piscitelli. The 3rd year Beaver made a nice open field tackle on slippery Chris Johnson one play after a executing a solid tackle on fat Alge Crumpler. Three plays later, Piscitelli took advantage of a sloppy Kerry Collins pass, intercepting it in the Buccaneers’ endzone.

If this is what we can come to expect from our new SS, call me enthused. It looks like Sabby’s going to have plenty of opportunities to make plays this year, given the early apparent lack of a pass rush. More importantly, I want to see him consistently complete his assignments and do the little things that the Pro Bowlers do. Great start!

Brian Clark
Aside from the touchdown reception, Clark showed his ability to go over the middle of the field, catching an early McCown pass. Clark also got the Bucs 2 more points, causing a second quarter safety when reserve TE Craig Stevens tackled him in the Titans’ endzone during a Craig Hentrich punt attempt.

I’ve mentioned, on more than one occasion, that I’m a fan of Brian Clark’s game, and the guy looks like a sure thing to make the ’09 Buccaneers. If he continues his consistent ability to make move the chains, Clark will be the Bucs’ third WR to start the year. I’ve already said that I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended the season with more catches than Michael Clayton, and he didn’t cause me to change my mind with tonight’s performance.

Stylez G. White
Like Sabby Piscitelli, Stylez G. White hauled in an errant Kerry Collins pass. On the play, White played a soft defense, staying in his zone, tipped the pass and secured it before falling to the ground. Very nice assignment execution by the veteran.

He also owned the next defensive series. On the drive that preceded the Brian Clark safety, White accounted for 15 lost Titans yards on back to back plays. First, he sacked Kerry Collins for a loss of 10 yards after Dre Moore flushed him outside. On the next play, following another solid flush by rookie Roy Miller, White was able to corral Chris Johnson for a loss of 5.

White is a guy who entered camp as a big question, but he stepped it up in game one. This needs to become a pattern.

Torrie Cox
I liked what I saw from the Miami native tonight. I’ve never been a huge supporter of his coverage skills, but Torrie did a more than admirable job against the speedy Nate Washington. He did get outrun on the play where Kenny Britt caught one between him and Will Allen for 38 yards, but you’re not going to win them all.

Dirk Johnson
The new addition yielded only 12 return yards on 5 punts; 11 of them coming on a punt coverage breakdown following a 46 yard boom by Johnson. Of his five punts, two were fair caught, two were muffed, one went for no gain, and another was returned for only one yard. Nice debut for Johnson.

Josh Johnson
I realize he’s 4th on the depth chart at this point, but don’t you have to find a way to keep a guy like Josh Johnson; especially considering the lack of explosive talent the Bucs have? What a sramble on a “blink-and-he’s-gone” QB keeper off the left side. Johnson takes it 43 yards for the score and follows that up with perfectly executed pass to Ryan Purvis for the two point conversion.

I did say there was a shot he could make the club, but it would cause the Bucs to show some cajones and cut either McCown or Leftwich. At this point, I’d say McCown would be closer to receiving a visit from the Turk, but we’re only one game into this. With a team that by all guesstimations won’t be competing for a title in ’09, why keep the loser of the Leftwich-McCown challenge? Freeman’s the future, so let’s keep Johnson and see what spark he can bring. Wildcat? Two QB on the field at the same time? I’m not saying we go all video game or anything, but it wouldn’t hurt the Bucs to get creative.

Kareem Huggins
The rookie from Hofstra may be 5th on the depth chart and fighting for spot on the practice squad, but he didn’t do anything to hurt his stock tonight. He played with a lot of aggression, fighting for positive yardage on every touch. Huggins totaled 43 yards on 9 carries (over 4.5 yards per) and caught 3 passes for 14 yards. His back-to-back receptions of Byron Leftwich passes for 8 and 7 yards set up Mike Nugent’s 1st half ending 51 yard field goal.

The only mark against Huggins on the night was a dropped pass on a 2nd and 2 from Leftwich that would have converted a first down and possibly saved Leftwich from being slammed to the ground by Vickerson on the following play. Huggins’ energy was a refreshing sight in tonight’s game. Maybe we have a new Mr. August.

Reserve Defensive Tackles
The first string guys weren't awful, but I felt the youngsters were worth mentioning. I want/need to go back and watch the game again, but in live action, I liked what I saw from both Roy Miller and Dre Moore. Did I see Kyle Moore disrupt things when he moved inside?


WHAT I DIDN’T LIKE

Luke McCown
He didn’t have an awful night, but Luke again displayed his fidgety nature and happy feet in the pocket, giving up on plays too early. Even John Lynch called him out on one play where Luke headed to the sidelines when he had Jerramy Stevens wide open downfield.

I did like his mobility and quickness to the sidelines, but he needs to do a better job of securing the football. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on the fumble where his facemask got yanked. I’m guessing he knew a penalty would be called and just flopped the ball outside. That was a sloppy play, but again, maybe he knew a penalty was / would be called. On the next play, he was flushed to the left and scrambled outside. If he continues to hold the ball so freely when running outside, he’s going to lose it on too many occasions.

I didn’t like how quickly he gave up on his reads and either checked down or headed for the sidelines. He still looks uncomfortable and indecisive, and I need to see some chemistry with at least one receiver.

Maurice Stovall & Cortez Hankton
Neither one had a single bright spot in tonight’s game. Stovall, given the starting assignment, couldn’t separate or make plays tonight, hauling in only 1 pass for 8 yards on 5 targets. Hankton was shutout on 3 targets. On his second target, Hankton not only failed to haul in the pass, but he caused an illegal formation penalty by covering up the tight end on the line of scrimmage.

The top 4 receivers at this point appear to be Bryant, Clayton, Clark, and Stroughter. I know there’s virtually nothing behind them, but Dexter Jackson, Maurice Stovall, and Cortez Hankton look like longshots for the 53 man roster. Stovall may make it due to a combination of no other viable options and his special teams play.

1st Team Defense
I didn’t like how little pressure the first unit put on Collins. He had far too much time to complete passes to Bo Scaife and Kenny Britt. Yes, the tackles did a fine job clogging Chris Johnson’s running lanes and seemed to consistently complete their assignments, but the ends weren’t getting to the QB.

I didn’t like how Barber and Mack played a 3rd and short that resulted in a Kenny Britt first down. Both were far too off on the 3rd and 2, and at first glance, there appeared to be miscommunication between them. Gotta clean that up. Ronde did follow that play with a nice unblocked, open field tackle on Chris Johnson for a loss of three. Nice to see the veteran display his fundamentally sound tackling ability.

Mack was also lucky Nate Washington couldn’t make a play on another Collins pass. Mack hung with him the whole way, but he never saw the ball. I want to see better positioning by our third corner.

Jermaine Phillips needs to work on his timing and point of attack approach, but I’m not about to get on a guy playing LB for the first time in a “meaningful game”. I can settle for a couple missed tackles at the line of scrimmage if he’s not being reckless and giving up big plays.

*Josh Freeman
I’ll throw Josh Freeman in here, but I’m really not trying to pick on the youngster who got his first bit of NFL action tonight (hence the *). He was accurate with most of his passes, but displayed the typical rookie tendencies of locking onto his primary receiver. His interception was another rookie mistake; underestimating the speed of the pro game by trying to force one outside on soft coverage. Ryan Mouton stepped in front of it and easily took it back for 6.

I did like how Freeman came back on the next series and completed his first pass to Sammie Stroughter for 20 yards. Another plus for Stroughter is that he made the catch knowing that he was going to be on the receiving end of a pretty good hit by the Titans’ defense. Freeman has a long way to go, but hopefully Leftwich or McCown does well enough as a starter that Freeman can be eased into action, say in ‘10.


OTHER OBSERVATIONS

Sammie Stroughter +1 / Dexter Jackson – 1
It wasn’t a huge sampling, but Stroughter was certainly the more determined return man tonight. He also showed toughness in the passing game. Jackson needs to step it up big time if he wants any shot at making the team.

Derrick Ward +1 / Earnest Graham -1
No explanation needed.


WHAT MATTERS MOST?

Going by tonight’s performance, I think Byron Leftwich is clearly ahead of Luke McCown in the QB battle. His 2 scoring drives vs. McCown’s 0 certainly doesn’t hurt. It was only one preseason game, but the arm strength, pocket poise, and calm reading of his progressions were the main reasons I wanted the Bucs to sign Leftwich this offseason. Hopefully he keeps it up.

The good guys didn’t score enough points in this one, but there was plenty to like from their first outing. I look for continued progress next Saturday at the Jaguars.

Go Bucs!

.

Top 10 Breakout Candidates for 2009

Every year certain players take that leap, either as a young veteran putting it together for the start of something big or a rookie bursting on the scene with his feet running. Below are the guys I see taking the biggest steps this coming season:

1) Matt Schaub – He’s my favorite breakout candidate for the ’09 season. He threw for over 3,000 yards in 11 games last year after offseason shoulder surgery and is entering his third year behind the wheel of the Texans’ offense. He has plenty of weapons in Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels to help him make the jump to the next level. IMO, the only thing that will hold him back is injury. I look for Schaub to gain recognition this season as one of the better passers / offensive leaders in the league.

2) Greg Olsen – Here’s another guy entering his third year with a team. QB has been the Bears’ glaring weakness for some time, and they address that by bringing in one of the best young arms in the game. A reliable TE is a QBs best friend, especially a QB entering his first year in an offense. Chicago’s receivers are still junk, although I expect to see Cutler and Earl Bennett renew their Vanderbilt chemistry. Olsen is a tremendous asset in the middle of the field with the smarts and ability to make both the routine and not-so-routine catches. He’s a mismatch for defenders, and I look for him to catch at least 70 passes this season (FYI – only 5 TE reached that mark in the ’08 season).

3) Ronnie Brown – The Wildcat wreaked havoc on the NFL last season, and while teams will be better prepared to defend it, I don’t see the Dolphins making Ronnie Brown a lesser part of the offense in ‘09. I expect the split in carries between he and Ricky Williams (Brown’s 215 vs. Williams’ 160) to be noticeably more in Brown’s favor this year. He’s a legit 3 down back; he’s entering his second season after an ACL injury; he reportedly has his college speed back; Jake Long’s entering his second year at LT; and they signed Jake Grove to greatly improve at center. Maybe he won’t replicate his 4 TD performance against the Patriots, but I look for a consistently better season. He was 19th in the league in rushing in ’08, and I expect him to be a lot closer to the top 10 at the end of this season.

4) Lawrence Timmons – Here’s that third year thing again. Timmons steps in for the departed Larry Foote, joining James Harrison, James Farrior, and LaMarr Woodley as probably the toughest group of LBs in the game. Having those guys around Timmons will allow the Steelers to let him play loose this year. He’s tremendously athletic and should do a much better job getting in the backfield than Foote did (Timmons had 18 TFL in his last year as a Nole). Expect to hear his name a lot this season.

5) DeSean Jackson – In a fine, yet spotty, rookie season, Jackson demonstrated the skills that justified his high pre-draft ranking. Many may not realize that he was third in his division in both receptions and yards (behind Santana Moss and Terrell Owens in both categories) at the WR position in ’08. Given Brian Westbrook’s age and health, I expect the Eagles to feature Jackson even more in ’08. He has the speed to break nearly every play and should benefit from having a year with McNabb under his belt. He’ll make more than his share of highlight plays this season.

6) Clay Matthews – The rookie is already the starter at ROLB in the Packers’ new 3-4 defense. The Packers didn’t have a ton of players who translated well to the new scheme, but Matthews should make an early mark on the league. At USC he frequently demonstrated his ability to get into the backfield and make plays at the point of contact. I think Matthews has a ton of potential and is going to be a formidable NFL defender for many years. I expect him to outplay fellow GB first rounder BJ Raji and battle Aaron Curry and USC teammate Brian Cushing (two other players worthy of mention in this topic) for NFL Defensive ROY honors.


7) Ray Rice – The man has made strides this offseason and looks to be the early leader for the role of primary ball carrier after spending the majority of ’08 on the sidelines. His receiving skills are well documented, and although the Ravens claim to once again be going with a committee approach, I think they’re going to feed the ball to the versatile Rice a lot. Willis McGahee is still in the picture, but I expect his role to be reduced. The Ravens didn’t do much to address the passing game, Derrick Mason waffled on retirement, and Mark Clayton’s already hurt. Flacco needs someone to throw to.

8) Brian Robiskie –Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, and Kenny Britt were the heralded receivers in the ’09 draft class, but Robiskie might be the first one to make an impact in the league. The 7th receiver off the board is the most polished of the bunch and brings an impressive route running ability that usually is lacking in rookie receivers. Growing up in and around the NFL will no doubt benefit Robiskie and help to eliminate the deer-in-headlights look a lot of rookies display. Braylon Edwards is no sure thing to bounce back from a really down year, and there’s no Kellen Winslow to take away targets. There’s also very little competition for the starting spot opposite Edwards, and I expect the rookie Robiskie to be a bright spot on the Browns’ offense in the ’09 season.


9) Aqib Talib – The second year man from Kansas was tied for the NFL rookie lead with 4 INT, a figure that also tied him for the team lead in Tampa. That as a 3rd corner behind Barber and Buchanon. With Buchanon out of the picture and a switch to a more aggressive coverage scheme, Talib should be able to demonstrate his playmaking ability on a regular basis. He’s never going to be the most physical corner in the league, but he’s got great ball skills and wins more battles than he loses. Charles Woodson led all NFL corners with 7 INTs last year, and I expect Talib to challenge that mark. Working against him is a weak pass rush up front and a 34 year old Barber playing opposite him.

10) Dwayne Bowe – You’ll see his name mentioned in most “breakout” writeups, but it’s hard to ignore him. He was 6th in the AFC with 86 receptions last year, and in Todd Haley’s new offense, those numbers should only go up. The lack of receiving talent around him won’t help, but I think the Chiefs are going to work away from that weakness by featuring quick strikes and taking advantage of mismatches. Bowe’s the best weapon they have, and they’ll lean heavily on him. I expect him to prove that ’08 wasn’t a fluke and that he’s locked in as one of the AFC’s best pass catchers for the foreseeable future.


Others receiving votes:

Paul Posluszny – Another 3rd year guy, Posluszny got hurt early in his rookie season after an impressive first camp and played sound/aggressive ball in ’08. Expect him to continue developing as the leader of that defense.

Quincy Black – This 3rd year thing is catchy. Angelo Crowell’s slow recovery from a chronic knee problem will allow Black to take Cato June’s vacated LB spot virtually uncontested. That’s not to say Black isn’t up to task. Coaches think he’ll wreak havoc all over the field for the Bucs, but he’ll have to show consistency and discipline as a starter. If he can do that, Black will be a beast for the Bucs.

LeSean McCoy – The rookie runner from Pitt may not have a true “breakout” season, but I expect him to see the field quite a bit in his rookie season. Again, Brian Westbrook isn’t getting any younger or healthier, but even if he is able to avoid a significant injury, I think the Eagles are going to get McCoy on the field early and often. He’s wowed everyone in camp by, among other things, demonstrating a willingness and ability to pass protect, which was a documented area of weakness coming out of college.

Jamaal Charles – Here’s a guy I liked as a draft prospect for the Bucs in ’08: “This guy has insane explosiveness and a great ability to get to the corner…I believe Charles is an underrated receiver... Talk about a gamebreaking talent...Charles is probably the best open field runner in the draft.” Larry Johnson is still around (for now), but the Chiefs will do all they can to get Charles’ playmaking skills on the field.

Josh Morgan – He was hyped last preseason, but a bad offensive system and instability at QB squelched his breakout season. Things aren’t terribly better system or QB wise in San Francisco, but while all the media attention is on newly drafted Michael Crabtree, it’s Morgan who’s again drawing raves in camp. I’m buying, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Morgan led the team in receiving; especially if Crabtree’s holdout gets uglier.

Calvin Johnson – I can’t call it a breakout season because the guy is already among the best in the game. Seeing as how he’s my favorite NFLer, I’m admittedly biased, but I predict that at the end of the season, Calvin Johnson will have the title of best consensus receiver in the game.



5 Who Won’t

Here are 5 guys I don’t see meeting expectations this season:

1) Vince Young – Wow, he still sucks. Think the Texans regret passing on him for Mario Williams? He’ll be lucky to hold off Patrick Ramsey for the backup job.

2) Devin Hester – Now that he has a QB that can throw the ball, Hester is being hyped as a potential breakout candidate for ’09. Having Cutler will help, but that won’t fix Hester’s sloppy routes and inconsistent hands. His numbers may increase, but I still don’t see a “go to guy” there.

3) Jason Campbell – I’m not falling for it again. Whether it’s the system, surrounding talent, or Campbell himself, I don’t see him making the jump that most have grown tired waiting for. This could be his last hurrah in Washington.

4) Glenn Dorsey – An epic disappointment so far, the switch to a 3-4 defense isn’t exactly playing to Dorsey’s strength. No feel good story here.

5) Trent Edwards – Here’s a 3rd year guy I’m not buying. I liked him coming out of college, despite his inability to stay on the field, and while I’m not calling for an awful season, I just don’t expect him to make the jump that others are predicting. Terrell Owens doesn’t ruin teams in his first year, so he’s got that going for him.

One Down...Roy To Go!

Well, the Dodgers just pulled off part two of my World Series contention plan. According to Dodgers.com, the boys in blue acquired lefty closer George Sherrill from the O’s for prospects Josh Bell (3B) and Steve Johnson (RHP).

Bell, LA’s #8 prospect according to Baseball America, was having a nice year at AA Chattanooga (.296-11-52 in 94 games) and projects as a power hitting corner man.

Sherrill would immediately become the 8th inning bridge to Broxton and gives the team another closer should Broxton need an occasional breather.

Git-R-Done Dodgers!

The Dodgers may still have the best record in baseball (tied with the Yanks at 62-39), but are they now the third best team in the National League? The Cards acquired Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo, and Matt Holliday to give Albert Pujols some much needed offensive support. Yesterday, the Phillies went out and grabbed last year’s AL Cy Young winner from the Indians without giving up wither Kyle Drabek or JA Happ. The Dodgers must respond. The question is, how will they?

From my view, they need another starter and another strong arm in the back of the pen if they want to make a serious run at this thing. The Lee/Martinez rumors were intriguing, but not at the expense of dealing Billingsley or Kershaw. They need to add, not exchange.

St. Louis has Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro.
Philadelphia has Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton / JA Happ.
LA has Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, and Randy Wolf.

Philly’s offense is every bit as potent as LA’s, and they added a front of the rotation starter. The Cardinals already have solid pitching, and they’re lineup is now much more formidable.

Word today from FOX Sports has the Dodgers in the running for Roy Halladay:
“Toronto officials have given Colletti a number of alternatives: smaller prospect packages headlined by left-hander Clayton Kershaw or right-hander Chad Billingsley, but not both; or a five-prospect package that doesn’t include either Kershaw or Billingsley.”

The LA Times says:
“The Blue Jays have told the Dodgers they can get Halladay without trading anyone off their major league roster, for five or six prospects. The Dodgers have said no, arguing that would gut their minor league system.”

Yeah, that makes sense. Last year was the first time the Dodgers were World Series relevant since 1988. Adding Roy Halladay guarantees the Dodgers nothing, but I’d really like their chances of holding off both the Cardinals and Phillies with Doc Halladay at the top of the rotation.

Follow that up with by trading for Baltimore's close, George Sherrill.

FOX Sports reports that:
“The Orioles are looking for a third baseman in return for Sherrill, sources said, and they are believed to prefer Josh Bell to Blake DeWitt.”

I’d work on Halladay first, obviously, and if Bell or DeWitt is still around, work something out with Baltimore. The Dodgers bullpen has been a strength, but Joe Torre has never been shy about overusing a reliever.

Closer Jonathan Broxton is still among the game’s top closers, but he needs help. Ronald Belisario should return mid-August to slot in front of Ramon Troncoso, but they still need more. Guillermo Mota has been hot lately, but how long will that last. I can’t stand the punk, and it would be just like him to crumble when needed most. Lefty Brent Leach is good for one batter a game, and Hong-Chih Kuo just returned to action for the first time since the end of April. Cory Wade and Will Ohman have been unreliable and injured, and rookie James McDonald is just unreliable.

I’m not for gutting the farm, but these guys are “prospects” for a reason. Look up “prospect” in the dictionary, and you’ll see the words chance, expectation, and potential. I’ll give up a few chances, an expectation, and some potential for one of, if not the best starter in baseball.

Remember how CC Sabathia fared in his NL stint with the Brewers?
17 starts
7 complete games
3 shutouts
11-2 record

Think Halladay wouldn’t improve upon his already dominant 11-4 record and 2.68 ERA with a move to the NL? Again, there are no guarantees with Halladay, but with the Dodgers’ World Series window being as wide open as it’s been in 20 years, now is the time to capitalize. Or they can just sit back, keep their prospects, and watch the Cardinals and Phillies slug it out with the AL for all the marbles.

Bravo Buehrle!

A quick hats off to Mark Buehrle for throwing MLB’s 17th all time regular season perfect game. You like to see good things happen to good people, and Buehrle is one of baseball’s best. Congratulations! I'm glad I was able to watch the entire game today and witness (fairly) rare history.

Some eerie similarities between today’s perfect game and his ’07 no-hitter (courtesy of ESPN):
- Eric Cooper was the home plate ump for both games
- 2:03 was the duration for both games
- Buehrle faced 27 batters faced in both games

DeWayne Wise, the best late inning replacement in baseball history, made one of the most significant catches/plays in baseball history. Not only did the man make a catch in a full sprint to the wall, but he went up and took away a homerun AND secured it after a bobble and crash to the ground; tremendous dedication to preserving a perfect game in the 9th inning. Wise’s commitment to his team was evident by the 110% hustle he put into that play. Great job guys!

This is why we watch baseball!

Second Half MLB Predictions

At the halfway point, here are your current playoff teams:

AL
Boston (East)
Detroit (Central)
Anaheim (West)
NY Yankees (Wild Card)

NL
Philadelphia (East)
St. Louis (Central)
Los Angeles (West)
San Francisco (Wild Card)

What will change between now and the 4th of October? My thoughts:

AL
East – Boston drops the division lead to the Yankees twice in the second half but the Sox come out on top in the end. The Rays’ pitching fizzles in the second half, and they’re not factors in the race. The Yankees take the wild card by a comfortable 5 game margin.

Central – For Detroit, I think Verlander can keep it up in the second half, but can Jackson maintain an ERA more than 2 runs less than his career number? Porcello’s already wearing down, and Galarraga’s been garbage. I have no confidence in that bullpen. I like Minnesota’s team, but I really like the White Sox to win this thing. They had a pretty poor offensive first half but got hot as of late. Quentin’s taking a little longer than expected to get healthy, but I’d like to think he’ll end up hitting a little higher than .229. They could use another starter, but Danks, Buehrle, Floyd, and a resurgent Contreras isn’t a bad first four. I like them to win a close race, by 2 games over the Twins in the end.

West – I’d love to give this to the Rangers, but I just can’t do it. Despite their offense, Millwood’s getting hit lately, and it’s hard to get behind guys like Tommy Hunter, Scott Feldman, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Dustin Nippert, and Vicente Padilla. The Angels are weathering an injured Hunter and a stick-a-fork-in-him Vlad. Weaver’s been sketchy the last month, and Saunders is the opposite of unhittable. Lackey’s still having trouble missing bats as well. The bridge to Fuentes is junk too. The Mariners are entertaining, but I don’t see them as much of a threat. Rumors have them dealing Washburn, Bedard, and/or Beltre, so are they considering themselves contenders? The A’s suck, so I guess I’ll give it to the Angels by default.

NL
East – The Phils maintain their lead in the East for the entire second half, holding off a pesky Atlanta team. The Mets finish the season in a third place tie with the Marlins with 79 wins. Philly’s got Pedro now, and I think they’ll make a serious run at either Halladay or one of Seattle’s starters. Hamels should improve upon his 4.87 first half ERA, and I like Blanton to be a bright spot in the second half.

Central – The Cardinals finish with the second best record in the National League easily distancing themselves from the Cubs and Brewers in the final two weeks of the season. Carpenter and Wainwright are the game’s best 1-2 in the second half, and the underrated Pineiro continues to put up quality starts. Wellemeyer’s unreliable and Lohse is a question, so I wouldn’t rule out them making a move for another starter to slot in after the first three. Franklin’s lights out in the closer role. On offense, Pujols is the best player in the game, Rasmus looks like the NL’s ROY, and Ryan Ludwick seems to be getting it together. The Cubs are a mess, and I like watching them lose. I think Lilly’s numbers slide a bit in the second half, Dempster’s hurt, Zambrano’s mental, Wells is too good to be true, and Harden’s consistently erratic. I don’t think the Brewers will have the pitching to overtake the Cards, and the rest of the division is junk.

West – The Dodgers finish with the best record in baseball, winning the division by 9 games. I’d like another starter (Bedard) to go with Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf, and Kuroda, and another bullpen arm (especially if Broxton misses time with the toe) would be nice. I’ll go with the Rockies as wild card winners over the Giants.

MVP
NL – Albert Pujols
AL – Justin Morneau

The NL vote isn’t even close as Pujols makes a serious run (but falls short) at a triple crown, but Morneau beats out Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro Suzuki, teammate Joe Mauer, and surprise 3rd place finisher, Carl Crawford in a close AL race.

Cy Young
NL – Tim Lincecum
AL – Josh Beckett

Haren and Tim Lincecum duel it out in the second half for the trophy, and Chris Carpenter and Josh Johnson finish up with award worthy years as well. I see Lincecum pulling off the back-to-back over Haren due largely to the fact that he’s on the better team and will have a better shot of getting to 20 wins. I don’t think Beckett will be the best pitcher in the second half, but I see him ending up with the most wins, helping him to the award. Verlander finishes second, Greinke third.

Rookie of the Year
NL – Colby Rasmus
AL – Matt Wieters

Rasmus wins over JA Happ, Jordan Zimmerman, and Dexter Fowler, and Wieters outperforms Ricky Romero, Gordon Beckham, Elvis Andrus, and teammates, Nolan Reimold and Brad Bergesen.

PLAYOFFS
AL
Red Sox beat Angels
Yankees beat White Sox
Red Sox beat Yankees

NL
Dodgers beat Phillies
Cardinals beat Rockies
Dodgers beat Cardinals

World Series
Dodgers over Red Sox in 7

I think the Dodgers are a good enough team to withstand my KOD and have shown that losing one player, even their best offensive weapon, won’t slow them down. I’d really like to see them get Bedard which would give them two sick lefties (with Kershaw) behind Billingsley; not to mention Wolf and Kuroda. Bedard shouldn’t cost terribly much considering the lingering questions around his shoulder and the fact that he’ll be a free agent after the season.

The Cardinals worry me more than the Phillies, as Pujols can carry a team, and I love the 1-2 of Carpenter and Wainwright. I may have to reconsider things if Halladay ends up in Philly.