2011 NFL Predictions - AFC West





1) San Diego Chargers

(9-7, 2nd in ’10)

Key Gets – Takeo Spikes (LB, 49ers), Corey Liuget (DL, Illinois), Marcus Gilchrist (DB, Clemson), Vincent Brown (WR, SD State), Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut)

Key Gones – Darren Sproles (RB, Saints)

Key Games – wk2 @ Patriots, wk3 v. Chiefs, wk7 @ Jets, wk8 @ Chiefs, wk9 v. Packers, wk 11 @ Bears, wk15 v. Ravens

Last year, for the first time in five seasons and the first time under Norv Turner, the Chargers missed the playoffs. A lot was expected from rookie runner Ryan Mathews, but his first year was widely considered a disappointment. Pro Bowl tackle Marcus McNeill held out for the first quarter of the year. Vincent Jackson sat out a little longer and got hurt when he did return. Future HOF’er Antonio Gates missed six games with plantar fasciitis, something he’s still dealing with this preseason. Oh, and their special teams play was some of the worst in the history of the game. Despite all that, Philip Rivers put up some of the best numbers of his career. With no one holding out, Gates good to go, and Mathews having a year under his belt, the offense should be as good as ever. The former Fresno fleet footer still hasn’t separated himself from Tolbert, so it looks like those two will split the load again. Keep an eye on Vincent Brown too. He won’t see the ball a ton unless injuries pile up, but I like him to emerge as their third receiver. On defense the Chargers have to make up for a huge off field loss; Ron Rivera leaving to take the head job in Carolina. Spikes is a good get at linebacker to go with solid vets Stephen Cooper and Shaun Phillips. San Diego really needs Larry English to contribute this year, and I still think he can be a player. I like Liuget’s potential as a disruptive 3-4 end and think he compliments Luis Castillo well. NT Antonio Garay had one of the most quietly productive performances in the league last year. It’s a good defense that doesn’t have to be great to win the division. It’s the playoffs where they get hurt against potent offensive attacks. Richard Bisaccia, brought in from Tampa to take over special teams, was a key add as well.

If the Chargers can get off to a good start for a change, I can’t see the Chiefs hanging with them over the course of an entire season.

Team MVP – Philip Rivers
Breakout Player – Larry English
Disappointment – Ryan Mathews

2) Kansas City Chiefs

(10-6, 1st in ’10)

Key Gets – Steve Breaston (WR, Cardinals), Jared Gaither (OL, Ravens), Le’Ron McClain (RB, Ravens), Kelly Gregg (DL, Ravens), Brandon Siler (LB, Chargers), Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh), Rodney Hudson (OL, FSU), Justin Houston (DE/OLB, Georgia), Allen Bailey (DL, Miami), Jalil Brown (CB, Colorado)

Key Gones – Mike Vrabel (LB, retired), Brian Waters (OL, free agent)

Key Games – wk3 @ Chargers, wk5 @ Colts, wk8 v. Chargers, wk11 @ Patriots, wk12 v. Steelers, wk13 @ Bears, wk14 @ Jets, wk15 v. Packers

The Chiefs were a surprise team last year, making the playoffs for the first time since ’06. Matt Cassel isn’t going to win many games with his arm, but his 27-7 TD-INT ratio and improved game management skills helped win games. Jamaal Charles is the best player on this offense; yet another guy who has proven that you don’t need to be 6-0, 215 to be a lead back in the league. He’s one of the more versatile and dynamic players in the game who should threaten 2,000 total yards this year. I’d love to see Dwayne Bowe on the receiving end of a real QB’s passes, but maybe the additions of Breaston and Jonathan “please don’t beat my ass” Baldwin, along with the continued development of second year TE Tony Moeaki, will free him up to make more plays each and every week. As good as Bowe’s ’10 season was (72 receptions, 1,162 yards, 15 TDs), he only caught more than 3 passes in 8 of 16 games. As their best downfield playmaker, they need to find a way to get the ball in his hands on a consistent basis. Tamba Hali had a career year last season with 14.5 sacks, adjusting just find to life as a 3-4 pass rushing linebacker. Eric Berry was a stud last year, particularly late, and I think he’ll be viewed as one of the top 3 safeties in the game after this season. Hali and Berry will again be KC’s best defensive players. The Chiefs may possess the most underrated pair of starting corners in Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr. Neither (especially Carr) gets the recognition he deserves. Gregg is old, but he’s the best nose they’ve had since moving to a 3-4. Glenn Dorsey had a better ’10, especially against the run. If Tyson Jackson can figure it out, this defense could take some pressure off a low octane offense.

I’m not a big Todd Haley fan and can’t see these guys putting it together for a second consecutive season.

Team MVP – Jamaal Charles
Breakout Player – Eric Berry
Disappointment – Matt Cassel

  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3) Oakland Raiders
(8-8, 3rd in ’10)

Key Gets – Kevin Boss (TE, Giants), Stefen Wisniewski (OL, Penn State), Demarcus Van Dyke (CB, Miami), Joseph Barksdale (OL, LSU), Chimdi Chekwa (CB, Ohio State), Taiwan Jones (RB, Eastern Washington)

Key Gones – Nnamdi Asomugha (CB, Raiders), Zach Miller (TE, Seahawks), Robert Gallery (OL, Seahawks), Bruce Gradkowski (QB, Bengals)

Key Games – wk3 v. Jets, wk4 v. Patriots, wk5 @ Texans, wk7 v. Chiefs, wk10 @ Chargers, wk12 v. Bears, wk14 @ Packers, wk16 @ Chiefs, wk17 v. Chargers

So it continues for Oakland. Last season, like the previous seven, wasn’t a winning one for the Raiders. At least they hit the .500 mark last year (a three win improvement upon ’09). For that Tom Cable lost his job. Also lost is their best player, Nnamdi Asomugha, the free agent corner who bolted for Philly. There’s key talent in place on that side of the ball, namely Rolando McClain, Kamerion Wimbley, Lamarr Houston, and Stanford Routt, but you don’t replace Asomugha overnight. Routt is being paid like a top cover man, but I’m not sure he’s quite ready for prime time just yet. Wimbley and Houston are young defensive line building blocks, and McClain proved to be a great investment last season; already looks like a veteran. I’m as high on him as I was over a year ago when I wanted the Bucs to take him over plan B (Ndamukong Suh unavailable). Jason Campbell is one of those QBs who sits just outside the craptastic category of passers comfortably in the land of mediocrity. He inspires zero confidence, and I’ve given up on him being a real offensive leader. The team’s leading receiver, TE Zach Miller, bolted for Seattle, so they’re left with a bunch of question marks vying for targets. Jacoby Ford is the most accomplished receiver on the roster, and Darrius Heyward-Bey is starting more so because of the investment in him rather than his talent. The guy to watch out for is Darius Moore, the rookie from Tennessee who’s had an electric camp. The best players on offense are in the backfield, and if he could ever stay healthy for a full season, Darren McFadden is going to put up 2,000 total yards. The offense is being tailored to better exploit his strengths this offseason, so another injury will be the only thing holding him back. Michael Bush could likely start elsewhere and makes a fine compliment to McFadden.

I think another .500 season is about as good as they can hope for.

Team MVP – Darren McFadden
Breakout Player – Lamarr Houston
Disappointment – Richard Seymour

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4) Denver Broncos
(4-12, 4th in ’10)

Key Gets – Willis McGahee (RB, Ravens), Brodrick Bunkley (DT, Eagles), Von Miller (DE/OLB, Texas A&M), Rahim Moore (S, UCLA), Nate Irving (LB, NC State), Quinton Carter (S, Oklahoma), Virgil Green (TE, Nevada)

Key Gones – Correll Buckhalter (RB, free agent), Jabar Gaffney (WR, Redskins), Ryan Harris (OL, Eagles)

Key Games – wk4 @ Packers, wk5 v. Chargers, wk10 @ Chiefs, wk11 v. Jets, wk12 @ Chargers, wk14 v. Bears, wk15 v. Patriots, wk17 v. Chiefs

Have a seat Timmy. Kyle Orton’s not leaving. In a non-move that doesn’t make a ton of sense, the Broncos decided to hold onto the veteran passer. You’d think a team that hasn’t made the playoffs for five seasons and has been pretty much eliminated before this one even starts would like to see what they’ve got in Tebow or even Brady Quinn. Brandon Lloyd resurrected his career in ’10 with his best season by far, finally turning potential into reality, but I think his numbers regress again with the change from air it out Josh McDaniels to a run run run John Fox. With Gaffney off to DC and no additions at the position, Eddie Royal needs to recapture some of that rookie year magic to give this offense a chance. Forgotten Eric Decker will make some noise too. Fox is going to want a strong run game, but I’m not sure the pieces are in place to recreate what he had in Carolina. I don’t think Knowshon Moreno is a fit as the primary ball carrier, and McGahee is a temporary patch. Still, feed them enough, and they’ll get their yards. That leads to the OL, a unit that, aside from LT Ryan Clady, is full of questions. On the other side of the ball, a defensive line in need of a talent infusion, was disappointingly neglected. I guess they’re banking on Elvis Dumervil picking up where he left off pre-injury and Robert Ayers figuring out the professional game. I’ve mentioned my concerns about rookie Von Miller’s ability to be a complete player as a pro, but I’m intrigued to see how he does as a 4-3 SLB in Denver’s system. No matter where he lines up, I expect him to get the QB more than any other rookie pass rusher. The secondary could use some youth (Champ Bailey 33, Andre Goodman 33, Brian Dawkins 38), but Denver’s swung and missed (Alphonso Smith and Perrish Cox) at their last two attempts to get young at corner. Moore and Carter will help at safety. And yes, I’ll be tracking Nate Irving’s career very closely; absolutely love that dude.

I like the moves on defense, but the lack of any substantive switches on offense will lead to another disappointing season in Denver.

Team MVP – Knowshon Moreno
Breakout Player – Von Miller
Disappointment – Robert Ayers


 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Standings
1) San Diego Chargers
2) Kansas City Chiefs
3) Oakland Raiders
4) Denver Broncos

Division MVP – Philip Rivers
Division Breakout – Eric Berry
Division Disappointment – Matt Cassel

2011 NFL Predictions - AFC South

1) Houston Texans
(6-10, 3rd in ’10)

Key Gets – Jonathan Joseph (CB, Bengals), Daniel Manning (S, Bears), Lawrence Vickers (FB, Browns), JJ Watt (DL, Wisconsin), Brooks Reed (DE/OLB, Arizona), Brandon Harris (CB, Miami), Rashad Carmichael (CB, Virginia Tech),

Key Gones – Vonta Leach (FB, Ravens), Bernard Pollard (S, Ravens), Amobi Okoye (DL, Bears), Dan Orlovsky (QB, Colts)

Key Games – wk1 v. Colts, wk3 @ Saints, wk4 v. Steelers, wk6 @ Ravens, wk10 @ Bucs, wk13 v. Falcons, wk16 @ Colts

Maybe I was just a year early, but I expected the Texans to take a big step forward last season. Now they’re everyone’s surprise team, so will this be the year? Can Arian Foster really repeat last year’s jaw dropping performance? I say he ends up a couple hundred yards off last year’s 1,616 mark. Some of it will be due to the sheer correction of numbers, and some of it will be due to the underrated loss of Leach. Don’t get me wrong. Foster is legit, but he’s not Adrian Peterson and was pretty unknown this time last year. Matt Schaub has put up back to back solid seasons, and there’s no reason to think this won’t be a third. Make no mistake. Andre Johnson is the offense’s most talented player, but they really missed Owen Daniels when he was out last year. Both Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones have failed to step up as a #2 receiver, and the Texans didn’t do anything this offseason to improve in that area. That’s a concern. Wade Phillips is here to fix the defense, and he brought his 3-4 alignment with him. Okoye exits an enormous disappointment, but I love the additions of Joseph, Watt, Reed, and Carmichael. They gave the secondary the extreme offseason attention it needed, and I think it will show. Joseph is one of the game’s elite corners, and Manning is an underrated difference maker. Those two moves alone are huge. I’m big on Watt and think he’ll be a serious contributor on that DL, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up one of the top Defensive ROY vote getters. I think they’re still lacking a true NT. One thing worth following will be Mario Williams’ transition to one of the league’s largest linebackers. As long as they let him focus on what he does best, getting at the passer, he should be just fine.

The Texans go on a 6-0 run after their bye week to dethrone the Colts, and they clinch the division in week 16 at Indy.

Team MVP – Andre Johnson
Breakout Player – Connor Barwin
Disappointment – Kareem Jackson

2) Indianapolis Colts

(10-6, 1st in ’10)

Key Gets – Jamaal Anderson (DL, Falcons), Ernie Sims (LB, Eagles), Tommie Harris (DL, Bears), Anthony Castonzo (OL, Boston College), Benjamin Ijalana (OL, Villanova), Drake Nevis (DL, LSU), Delone Carter (RB, Syracuse),

Key Gones – Kelvin Hayden (CB, free agent), Bob Sanders (S, Chargers), Clint Session (LB, Jaguars)

Key Games – wk1 @ Texans, wk3 v. Steelers, wk4 @ Bucs, wk5 v. Chiefs, wk7 @ Saints, wk8 v. Falcons, wk13 @ Patriots, wk14 @ Ravens, wk16 v. Texans

What’s up with Peyton Manning’s neck? The Colts went out and added Kerry Collins because Curtis Painter apparently isn’t up to the task if needed. If either Collins or Painter has to start three or four games, this team isn’t winning the division. At this moment, Manning was recently activated from the PUP list, and it would probably be a surprise if he didn’t play week one. Upgrading his protection was priority one this offseason, and I absolutely love the additions of Castonzo and Ijalana. Those two should be foundational pieces of their next OL era. Joseph Addai was a big disappointment in ’10, but the Colts brought him back anyways. Donald Brown’s inability to prove himself had a lot to do with that. Watch out for Carter. He’s the most physical back on Indy’s roster and showed the ability to handle the load at Syracuse. The offense could get several boosts with healthy returns by Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzalez, but I think Reggie Wayne starts to regress. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are still capable pass rushers, but they really need Jerry Hughes to step up in his second year. So far this preseason, he’s not showing much improvement. The Colts are still looking for a plug in the middle of their defensive line. Does Harris have anything left? I’m impressed by what I’ve seen (in limited action) this preseason. At linebacker, the guy I really like is Pat Angerer; had him mocked to the Bucs in last year’s draft. He exceeded expectations last year and looks to be a foundational piece of the defense. Will Sims find a permanent home with the Colts? Can the secondary stay healthy and untoasted? Bob Sanders is more of a loss in name than talent at this point, and Kelvin Hayden was on the injured list as often as he was active. Still, I don’t like the talent left behind and think secondary play will be a big reason the Colts finish second.

Saying the Colts will only go as far as Peyton Manning leads them is obviously stating the obvious. They’ll end up on the wrong side of just enough breaks to finish second to the Texans and possibly miss out on the playoffs altogether.

Team MVP – Peyton Manning
Breakout Player – Delone Carter
Disappointment – Reggie Wayne




 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3) Tennessee Titans
(6-10, 4th in ’10)

Key Gets – Matt Hasselbeck (QB, Seahawks), Barrett Ruud (LB, Buccaneers), Anthony Smith (S, Packers), Jake Locker (QB, Washington), Akeem Ayers (LB, UCLA), Jurrell Casey (DL, USC), Jamie Harper (RB, Clemson)

Key Gones – Vince Young (QB, Eagles), Stephen Tulloch (LB, Lions), Jason Babin (DL, Eagles), Randy Moss (WR, retired), Kerry Collins (QB, retired), David Thornton (LB, retired), Bo Scaife (TE, Bengals)

Key Games – wk2 v. Ravens, wk5 @ Steelers, wk7 v. Texans, wk8 v. Colts, wk11 @ Falcons, wk12 v. Bucs, wk14 v. Saints, wk15 @ Colts, wk17 @ Texans

Jeff Fisher’s reign as the longest tenured NFL coach ended this offseason in an ugly spat with owner Bud Adams, of which Young was a non-innocent bystander. The Titans hope Hasselbeck can bridge the gap to the Locker era and will once again be riding the lighting fast feet of Chris Johnson, assuming his contract situation doesn’t get any uglier. As of late August, Johnson hasn’t blinked and isn’t showing any signs of doing so. If Kenny Britt can keep his head out of his ass, he’s going to be one of the league’s best receivers, but based on past history, consistent appropriate behiavior is far from a sure thing. Neither Nate Washington nor Justin Gage should be starting on any NFL team, but I like Damian Williams to step up in his sophomore season. Another guy to keep your eyes on is Jared Cook, the third year TE from South Carolina. He’s an athletic mismatch this team sorely needs. The defense continues their plunge into the NFL’s basement with the losses of Babin and Tulloch, and I don’t like their attempts to improve. It’s no secret I’m not a fan of Ruud, so that will tell you what I think of his signing, and I wasn’t an Ayers fan when he was at UCLA. I think that front seven is in for a long year of punishment. Their best cover man, Courtland Finnegan, is pissed about his contract and walked out of camp early this preseason. How will that play out over the course of the season, assuming he survives his next run-in with Andre Johnson?

The only reasons to watch this team are Johnson, Britt, and Cook. The rest will be ugly. If Johnson sits out any substantial time, I hold the right to change my prediction and put the Titans in the basement.

Team MVP – Chris Johnson
Breakout Player – Jared Cook
Disappointment – Barrett Ruud


 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
(6-10, 3rd in ’10)

Key Gets – Paul Posluszny (LB, Bills), Clint Session (LB, Colts), Matt Roth (DL, Browns), Dawan Landry (S, Ravens), Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri), William Rackley (OL, Lehigh), Cecil Shorts (WR, Mount Union)

Key Gones – Mike Sims-Walker (WR, Rams), Justin Durant (LB, Raiders)

Key Games – wk2 @ Jets, wk4 v. Saints, wk6 @ Steelers, wk7 v. Ravens, wk8 @ Texans, wk10 @ Colts, wk12 v. Texans, wk13 v. Chargers, wk14 v. Bucs, wk15 @ Falcons, wk 17 v. Colts

If David Garrard wasn’t feeling unwanted before, he probably should be now. This past April the Jaguars drafted his successor, and the handing of the torch may come sooner rather than later depending on how quickly Jacksonville’s season goes into the crapper. Their star ball carrier, Maurice Jones-Drew, finished the year with a knee issue and is still at less than full health. Something tells me that they’re going to need to lean on Rashad Jennings a bit this year, and he won’t disappoint. I loved him coming out of Liberty a few years ago and think he can be a big time performer. I like Mike Thomas a lot and think he has the potential to showcase his quickness and elusiveness this year with the amount of targets he should see as their #1, but #2 Jason Hill shouldn’t be starting in the NFL. I loved Jarrett Dillard coming out of Rice, but he can’t stay healthy as a pro. Besides Shorts (potential, watch out for him), there’s not much behind those guys. Getting Posluszny should be a boost to the defense, but I’m surprised they didn’t put more focus on upgrading their horrid secondary. I think it’s going to continue getting worse at corner. Rashean Mathis is in decline mode, and Derek Cox wouldn’t keep getting second chances if there was any talent behind him. I’m not sure Landry is enough of an addition on his own to make a significant difference back there. Tyson Alualu is a great penetrator, and Terrence Knighton absolutely shuts down run lanes. Not quite Stroud-Henderson 2.0 yet, but they’re far from this team’s biggest problem. Did someone say problem? At end, Aaron Kampman is past him prime, and Austen Lane is unproven. Jeremy Mincey? Matt Roth? Woof.

If they don’t finish with their fourth straight non-winning season, I’ll be shocked.

Team MVP – Mike Thomas
Breakout Player – Rashad Jennings
Disappointment – Rashean Mathis

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Standings

1) Houston Texans
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Jacksonville Jaguars


Division MVP – Andre Johnson
Division Breakout – Rashad Jennings
Division Disappointment – Barrett Ruud

2011 NFL Predictions - AFC North

1) Baltimore Ravens

(12-4, 2nd in ’10)

Key Gets – Vonta Leach (FB, Texans), Bryant McKinnie (OL, Vikings), Lee Evans (WR, Bills), Ricky Williams (RB, Dolphins), Bernard Pollard (S, Texans), Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado), Torrey Smith (WR, Maryland), Jah Reid (T, UCF), Tandon Doss (WR, Indiana), Tyrod Taylor (QB, Virginia Tech)

Key Gones – Josh Wilson (CB, Redskins), Derrick Mason (WR, Jets), Todd Heap (TE, Cardinals), Willis McGahee (RB, Broncos), Le’Ron McClain (RB, Chiefs), Kelly Gregg (DL, Chiefs), Jared Gaither (OL, Chiefs)

Key Games – wk1 v. Steelers, wk4 v. Jets, wk6 v. Texans, wk9 @ Steelers, wk14 v. Colts, wk15 @ Chargers

Last year Baltimore’s season finished with a playoff loss to Pittsburgh that should have been a win. Since that loss I like what they’ve done, starting with the addition of Vonta Leach. He’s going to be huge for Ray Rice and the running game; big time pick up. I think Rice secures his spot among the game’s elite backs this season. He’ll score at least 10 TDs and total more than 2,000 all purpose yards. Bank on it. The offensive line has potential to do some real damage this year. They’re solid at guard with Ben Grubbs and Marshal Yanda, and Michael Oher might just be better off now at RT. If Bryant McKinnie remembers how much he likes getting paychecks, this group will dominate. Evans’ better days are behind him, but the Ravens are hoping he’ll spread the field better than Mason and allow Anquan Boldin more room to make plays (or at least keep the spot warm while Torrey Smith learns the offense). Championship teams are built on solid defenses and sound QB play. Joe Flacco has shown steady improvement in each of his three seasons as a pro, and I see no reason why he doesn’t take his game to the next level in ’11. That defense still fields some bad dudes, and Ray Lewis is still the baddest of them all. Haloti Ngata is an elite talent who you absolutely must spend extra time game planning for, and I’m expecting for Terrence Cody to have a really big second year lining up next to him. Terrell Suggs, always tough, put up his first double digit sack season since ’04 in ’10, and I’ve mentioned Jarrett Johnson before as a solid, underrated player. Still love him; still underrated. Losing Wilson will be a big blow to the secondary, especially if Ed Reed starts playing to his age. He’ll turn 33 when the Ravens take on the Steelers in week 1 but is apparently healthier than he’s been the last couple of seasons. Tom Zbikowski will put down the boxing gloves and attempt to take ownership of the SS job. As an added bonus, the Ravens might get something out of Sergio Kindle this year.

Ray Lewis said he’d retire if they won it all, and I think there’s a good chance he’s looking for a new career next year.

Team MVP – Ray Rice
Breakout Player – Terrence Cody
Disappointment – Lee Evans

 
 

 

2) Pittsburgh Steelers

(12-4, 1st in ’10)

Key Gets – Jerricho Cotchery (WR, Jets), Cameron Heyward (DL, Ohio State), Marcus Gilbert (OL, Florida), Curtis Brown (CB, Texas), Chris Carter (LB, Fresno State)

Key Gones – Max Starks (OT, overweight, out of shape free agent), Antwaan Randle El (WR, free agent)

Key Games – wk1 @ Ravens, wk3 @ Colts, wk4 @ Texans, wk8 v. Patriots, wk9 v. Ravens, wk12 @ Chiefs

The Steelers may have the most question marks of all the serious contenders. On offense – How much does Hines Ward have left? How many times will Ben Roethlisberger get sacked behind an offensive line consisting of below average blockers in Jonathan Scott and Ramon Foster, the heavily penalized Chris Kemoeatu, and post Achilles Willie Colon? Like the Ravens, this team is still known by its defense, but there’s special talent in the offensive backfield. I’ve been a Rashard Mendenhall since his Illinois days and think he builds upon an impressive third season, solidifying his place as one of the games best all-round backs. If I’m the Steelers, I’m a little worried about the severe drop in talent behind him if he were to show any wear from his 614 touches over the last two seasons. Emmanuel Sanders came on late last year and is getting a lot of preseason hype, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Antonio Brown made just as big an impact this season. Brown isn’t as explosive, but I think he’s a consistent target that balances well with Wallace and has shown some chemistry with Roethlisberger. Speaking of Wallace, that guy is going to finish as a top 7 receiver this year; big time numbers. Which will fail James Harrison first – his back or his mouth? He’s 33, and James Farrior is ancient. Fortunately for the Steelers, the two other linebackers are elite players. Both LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons have responded to all challenges and look to be the foundation of the next Steeler defensive era. I love their defensive ends. Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel have been two of the most productive and consistent players in the game, but they’re both comfortably on the slow side of 30 and have missed some time over the last couple of seasons. Behind them has been Ziggy Hood, a guy I loved coming out of Missouri, who shined big time last year and now Cameron Heyward, a large dude who’s a perfect fit in this defense. I’ve still got questions about their secondary. Is Troy Polamalu 100% over last year’s Achilles issues? If so, look out! How bad will the lack of talent at corner hurt them? With half the starting linebackers being on the wrong side of their career peaks, that secondary may feel the brunt of a possible weakened pass rush.

Can the Steelers make it a 4th division title in 5 years? I think they come up just short; one game or a tiebreaker separating the top two teams.

Team MVP – Rashard Mendenhall
Breakout Player – Antonio Brown
Disappointment – Jonathan Scott

3) Cleveland Browns
(5-11, 3rd in ’10)

Key Gets – Brandon Jackson (RB, Packers), Phil Taylor (DL, Baylor), Jabaal Sheard (DE/OLB, Pittsburgh), Greg Little (WR, UNC)

Key Gones – Lawrence Vickers (FB, Texans)

Key Games – wk2 @ Colts, wk 9 @ Texans, wk13 v. Ravens, wk14 @ Steelers, wk16 @ Ravens, wk17 v. Steelers

With a shady offensive line and a still developing Colt McCoy under center, expect a lot Peyton Hillis again this year. Talk about a breakout player. Last year, Hillis rushed for nearly 1,200 yards and added another 500 in the receiving game on 61 receptions, second best on the Browns. Can he really do it again? Brandon Jackson isn’t anything more than a third down back, and Montario Hardesty still isn’t full recovered from last year’s knee injury. Hillis won’t flop, but aside from Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, there’s not much at all to like on that OL from a run or pass blocking perspective. That’s really going to hinder Colt McCoy’s progress as he takes over the offense in his second year as a pro. I’ve seen a lot of mentions of his progress this preseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he secured the job long term. I still believe his physical limitations will cap his growth at some point. Mohamed Massaquoi really shouldn’t be starting, let alone be anyone’s #1 receiver. I believe Greg Little will quickly and clearly take that #1 receiver role, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t finish the year as their top pass catcher. On defense they’re shifting to a 4-3 front and don’t have the personnel to make a seamless transfer. Taylor and Sheard will help, but this is a front seven that was awful at getting to the passer last year. Not sure I can count Sheard being a dominant rookie. The linebacker unit is pretty weak to put it kindly. D’Qwell Jackson is a big medical question mark in the middle, and Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong are better off in the old Cleveland scheme (for what that’s worth). Joe Haden is already the most talented player on this team. He shined as a rookie, and I expect him to do more of the same this year. He and TJ Ward are clearly the top talents in the back end of a blah defense.

No one expects the Browns to do any better than third in this division. If nothing else they should get a pretty good idea whether or not McCoy is the guy to build the team around going forward. I think he still has the job this time next year.

Team MVP – Joe Haden
Breakout Player – Colt McCoy
Disappointment – Usama Young

4) Cincinnati Bengals
(4-12, 4th in ’10)

Key Gets – Bruce Gradkowski (QB, Raiders), Manny Lawson, (LB, 49ers), Nate Clements (CB, 49ers), Bo Scaife (TE, Titans), AJ Green (WR, Georgia), Andy Dalton (QB, TCU), Dontay Moch (LB, Nevada), Clint Boling (OL, Georgia)

Key Gones – Carson Palmer (QB, “retired”), Johnathan Joseph (CB, Texans), Chad Ochocinco (WR, Patriots), Terrell Owens (WR, who gives a shit?)

Key Games – wk6 v. Colts, wk10 v. Steelers, wk11 @ Ravens, wk13 @ Steelers, wk14 v. Texans, wk17 v. Ravens

Marvin Lewis has become quite the magician. He enters his 8th season as head coach of the Bengals, and all he’s done is take the franchise from laughingstock to boringly average. Add to that they’re without their QB because someone finally had the cojones to stand up to the ludicrousness that is Mike Brown. In for Carson Palmer steps Andy Dalton, a rookie QB who while I think has a solid future ahead of him, isn’t quite ready for prime time. When your other options are Bruce Gradkowski and Carson’s much less talented brother Jordan, throwing Dalton into the fire might not be a bad idea. AJ Green is going to be special, and I like that Jerome Simpson seemed to finally be putting it together at the end of last season. Throw in slot man Jordan Shipley and future All Pro TE Jermaine Gresham, and that’s a pretty talented group of pass catchers. Question is – will Dalton have time to get it to them behind a declining offensive line? LT Andrew Whitworth is underrated, and much maligned (deservingly so) RT Andre Smith is reportedly looking like a football player this preseason. Can Cedric Benson break 1,000 yards for a third consecutive season with a more crowded box? Leon Hall is a very underrated cover man, but losing Joseph on the other side is going to really hurt an already shoddy defense. The Bengals were even worse at getting to the QB than the Browns last year. If it were not for rookie Carlos Dunlap’s 9.5 sacks, Geno Atkins would have led the team with 3, yes 3, sacks. They’ll need fellow second year man Michael Johnson to step his game up in ‘11. I like Lawson in this defense, and maybe being surrounded by both he and Keith Rivers will help Rey Maualuga reach his potential. Maybe their next head coach will specialize in defense…oops.

There are young foundational pieces in place, but it’s going to take a while for them to produce substantive wins.

Team MVP – Leon Hall
Breakout Player – Michael Johnson
Disappointment – Rey Maualuga


 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Standings
1) Baltimore Ravens
2) Pittsburgh Steelers
3) Cleveland Browns
4) Cincinnati Bengals


Division MVP – Ray Rice
Division Breakout – Colt McCoy
Division Disappointment – Jonathan Scott

2011 NFL Predictions - AFC East

1) New England Patriots
(14-2, 1st in ’10)

Key Gets – Chad Ochocinco (WR, Bengals), Albert Haynesworth (DL, Redskins), Andre Carter (DE/OLB, Patriots), Shaun Ellis (DL, Jets), Nate Solder (OL, Colorado), Ras-I Dowling (CB, Virginia), Shane Vereen (RB, California), Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas), Stevan Ridley (RB, LSU)

Key Gones – none

Key Games – wk2 v. Chargers, wk5 v. Jets, wk6 v. Cowboys, wk8 @ Steelers, wk9 v. Giants, wk10 @ Jets, wk11 v. Chiefs, wk12 @ Eagles, wk13 v. Colts

Are these guys as good as their hype? The Patriots have won as many playoff games in the last three years as the Tampa Bay Bandits, but they’re always mentioned as one of the league’s elite teams. Can they return to dominance this year? I love the addition of Ochocinco and see him fitting in beautifully as Tom Brady’s #2 receiver behind Wes Welker, and locking up Logan Mankins long term was a no-brainer. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is unlikely to repeat his 1,000 yard season given the talent they have at the position. In addition to the diminutive Danny Woodhead, the Patriots went out and drafted Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. The former is having an impressive preseason and looks like he’ll be part of the game plan early on. I like the Mallett pick up and am intrigued with how things will work out for him in New England. I question the Haynesworth addition, as I think he’ll prove to be completely useless, even with the Patriots. Bill Belichick will need to continue coaching them up on defense since they chose not to make a significant upgrade in the pass rush department where no individual player recorded more than 5.5 sacks last season. On a positive note, Jerod Mayo is on his way to becoming one of the best defensive players in football, and the guy lining up next to him, Brandon Spikes, had a superb rookie year. I like most of the secondary, particularly corner Devin McCourty and safety Pat Chung. I called for a breakout year for Chung last season, and while he didn’t get a lot of individual national attention, he’s certainly solidified his role on this defense.

I see the Patriots getting to 11 or 12 wins, and I think that will be enough to get them the division. Beyond that?


Team MVP – Tom Brady
Breakout Player – Devin McCourty
Disappointment – Brandon Meriweather

2) New York Jets
(11-5, 2nd in ’10)

Key Gets – Plaxico Burress (WR, Oneida Correctional Facility), Derrick Mason (WR, Ravens), Muhammad Wilkerson (DL, Temple), Kenrick Ellis (DL, Hampton)

Key Gones – Braylon Edwards (WR, 49ers), Jerricho Cotchery (WR, Steelers), Brad Smith (WR/KR, Bills), Damien Woody (RT, retired), Shaun Ellis (DL, Patriots), Jason Taylor (OLB, Dolphins)

Key Games – wk1 v. Cowboys, wk4 @ Ravens, wk5 @ Patriots, wk7 v. Chargers, wk10 v. Patriots, wk14, v. Chiefs, wk15 @ Eagles, wk16 v. Giants

I’m not feeling the Jets mojo this year. How did they get better? Are the rusty Plaxico and old Mason improvements over Edwards and Cotchery? Brad Smith is a loss that will be felt, and LaDainian Tomlinson really wore down last season. Is Sanchez going to take a needed step forward and pick up in ’11 where he left off in ’10, throwing for 5 scores and 0 INTs in his final two games against the Patriots and Steelers? Shonn Green will be the primary ball carrier this year, and I think he’ll be a bright spot. I’m expecting 1,200 yards rushing, and D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold, and Brandon Moore, their three stud offensive linemen, will be big reasons why. Speaking of bright spots, I think Santonio Holmes will have his best year as a pro and finish as a top 10 receiver. Dustin Keller should continue his development as Sanchez’s most reliable safety valve, especially early on with Sanchez’s unfamiliarity with Burress and Mason. On defense Wilkerson and Ellis were big additions to the DL, but like New England, I thought they needed to get better at outside linebacker. I’m not counting on Calvin Pace finally becoming the dominant pass rusher he’s been hyped as. Inside they’re fine. There aren’t many plays where both David Harris and Bart Scott aren’t right in the middle of the action. So much for having the #1 and #1a corners on the same defense. The Jets lost out on Nnamdi and “settled” for re-signing Cromartie. They’ll be one of the game’s best units once again, but I think the lack of a stud pass rushing linebacker is going to keep them from realizing greatness.
The defense will still be stout, but is this team hungrier than they’ve been the past two seasons? I’m a little leery of a letdown and possible missed playoff berth.


Team MVP – Santonio Holmes
Breakout Player – Shonn Green
Disappointment – Calvin Pace

 

3) Buffalo Bills
(4-12, 4th in ’10)

Key Gets – Nick Barnett (LB, Packers), Brad Smith (WR/KR, Jets), Marcell Dareus (DL, Alabama), Aaron Williams (DB, Texas)

Key Gones – Paul Posluszny (LB, Jaguars), Donte Whitner (S, 49ers), Lee Evans (WR, Ravens)

Key Games – wk3 v. Patriots, wk5 v. Eagles, wk6 @ Giants, wk9 v. Jets, wk10 @ Cowboys, wk12 @ Jets, wk14 @ Chargers, wk17 @ Patriots 

Fred Jackson isn’t Adrian Peterson, but his talents would be more appreciated on a better team. Unfortunately for Jackson, he’s running behind arguably the worst offensive line in the game. There isn’t a starter on that line that I’d want as a backup on the Bucs. Is CJ Spiller going to have a better sophomore season and threaten Jackson’s carries? I say no, and if ’11 mimics ’10, the bust buzz will start. Steve Johnson exploded on the NFL and became a guy you watch the highlights for each week. That’s hard to do on the Bills, and it will be even harder for him to repeat that feat with everyone now aware of his abilities. Evans’ better days are behind him, but what’s left behind to take his place is a bunch of #4 receivers. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t Joe Montana, but the guy can play the QB position. He’s a guy who can manage the game for you and create a play or two on his own to make a difference. He and Johnson have great chemistry, and if he can get anything from the rest of the receivers, he’ll surpass last year’s numbers. The loss of Posluszny is going to be a big one, but I like how they brought in Nick Barnett to add some stability. Shawne Merriman is having an impressive preseason, but it’s been a while since he was an impactful player. Outside of Merriman, they’re unlikely to get much of a pass rush from the LB level once again. If your NT is leading the team in sacks (Kyle Williams 5.5 in ’10 led Buffalo), you’re not winning many meaningful games. I love the drafting of Dareus to help fix the defensive line. He’s one of my top 3 candidates for Defensive ROY and should do some damage next to Williams.

That offensive line gives me the chills, and it’s probably going to be another long year in Buffalo as they and the Dolphins battle for 3rd place.

Team MVP – Fred Jackson
Breakout Player – Marcell Dareus
Disappointment – CJ Spiller

4) Miami Dolphins
(7-9, 3rd in ’10)

Key Gets – Reggie Bush (RB, Saints), Matt Moore (QB, Panthers), Marc Colombo (OL, Cowboys), Mike Pouncey (OL, Florida), Daniel Thomas (RB, Kansas State), Edmond Gates (WR, Abilene Christian)

Key Gones – Ronnie Brown (RB, Eagles), Ricky Williams (RB, Ravens), Channing Crowder (LB, retired)

Key Games – wk1 v. Patriots, wk4 @ Chargers, wk6 @ Jets, wk8 @ Giants, wk12 @ Cowboys, wk14 v. Eagles, wk16 @ Patriots, wk17 v. Jets

Can Dolphins fans feel good about their offseason? Granted, getting younger at the RB position was a necessary move, but the biggest deal of the offseason is the one they didn’t make. Kyle Orton is still a Bronco, and I think that not making that trade is going to come back and bite the Dolphins. I can’t wait to see how nuts Brandon Marshall gets with another year of Chad Henne under center. Marshall should finish closer to 100 receptions this season than last regardless of who is under center, but he’ll need to do better against playoff teams. From week 6 on, Marshall totaled 20 receptions for 0 scores in games against the Steelers, Ravens, Bears, Jets, and Patriots. I do think Davone Bess has the ability to be a consistent threat, and keep an eye on Gates. There’s a bit of potential there. Is Reggie Bush going to be any better in a worse offense, with a worse QB, on grass? I say no. Right now he looks like the starter because Daniel Thomas, a guy I was down on coming out of Kansas State (had him ranked lower than most), hasn’t done much of anything this preseason. Whoever is running better go left behind Richie Incognito and one of the best left tackles in the game, Jake Long. On defense, Karlos Dansby is the stabilizing force in the middle. He didn’t make as many big plays as hoped in his first year as a Dolphin, but he’s one of the game’s best inside backers. I love Vontae Davis and think his future is bright, but he’s got to make more game changing plays, turn more of those pass break ups into INTs. He’ll team with Sean Smith to give the Dolphins two of the more talented young corners in the game. Jared Odrick’s rookie year was wiped out due to injury, so he’s almost like another draft pick; love his potential. Jason Taylor is back, but it’s 2011, not 2002.

They’re a bad team that isn’t getting a lot better anytime soon. A lack of a run game will bury this offense and its hopes of a winning season.

Team MVP – Jake Long
Breakout Player – Davone Bess
Disappointment – Daniel Thomas

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Standings
1) New England Patriots
2) New York Jets
3) Buffalo Bills
4) Miami Dolphins


Division MVP – Tom Brady
Division Breakout – Marcell Dareus
Division Disappointment – Daniel Thomas

2011 MLB Second Half Predictions

I haven’t had much time to write lately and don’t anticipate that changing any time in the near future. This may become an even less occasional gig than it is now. While I had a minute I wanted to jot down my predictions for the second half of this pretty entertaining baseball season. I didn’t do awful last year with my Second Half Predictions, but I did ruin Brennan Boesch’s first year by predicting he’d win the ROY. He floundered with a .163 BA, 2 homers, and 18 RBI after the break. I did hit with Buster in the NL and was pretty damn on target with my Carlos Gonzalez projection. Back to 2011.

The first half saw no-hitters thrown by both Justin Verlander and Francisco Liriano and two near no-no’s – Anibal Sanchez’s 8 hitless innings against the Rockies and San Diego ending up just one out shy of 9 hitless against the Dodgers. But the biggest moment of the first half happened just before the break with Derek Jeter collecting his 3000th hit in dramatic fashion. The National League won the All Star Game on the bat of Prince Fielder, so for the second year in a row, the Senior Circuit will have home field advantage for the World Series.

As far as teams go there have been some surprises, both good and bad.

The good –

Cleveland – They got off to a surprising 33-20 start, attempting to run away with the division, but an ugly June has pulled them back to the pack where they are currently ½ a game behind the Tigers at the break. The Indians are making their first serious attempt at contending since their last division title in ’07.

Pittsburgh – The Pirates sit 4 games above .500 at the break and 1 game out of first. As owners of 47 wins with 72 to go, they could go 33-39 the rest of the way and have their first 80 win season since 1992, the last time they made the playoffs. Will they have enough to hang in a tight NL Central race?

Arizona – Sitting 6 games above .500, the young Diamondbacks are chasing down the older Giants. Their stats don’t support a sustained run in catching San Fran (3 games up), but I don’t think it matters with this team. Expect them to be in it in the end.

The bad –

Oakland – A surprise pick for many, it doesn’t look like the A’s will break .500 this year either, for the 5th straight season. When you don’t score many runs (28th in MLB) you can’t afford to give up many (3rd in ERA but only 8th in runs allowed).

Florida – No one foresaw that awful run – 19 losses sandwiching one win against the Diamondbacks. The Marlins went 1-11 at home during that streak, but they did put together a positive 5 game run prior to the break. Too little too late.

The ugly –

LA Dodgers – What a shitty team this is. No closer. Kershaw is solid, but Billingsley will always be just above average, and they don’t score for Kuroda. No leadoff hitter. No power aside from Kemp. Ethier has his eye/mind on another team. Loney still has little league strength. Furcal is hurt again…again. Eugenio Velez? Nice arm. He’s the only LF I’ve ever seen allow a guy to tag up and go 2nd to 3rd on a fly ball to LF; makes Juan Pierre look like Raul Mondesi. I knew the Dodgers would be bad this year, but I was expecting a 70-75 win season. With a 41-51 start, they’d have to go 29-41 the rest of the way to get to 70, and I don’t think they’ve got 29 more wins in them. With matchups @Arizona, @SF, vsWAS, vsCOL, vsARI, @SD, @ARI, and vPHI to start the second half, they don’t get a break until game 25 when they host the Astros, and that’s assuming Houston’s still awful at that point.

Thanks McCourt, you bum!

Here are my quick division winner thoughts:

AL East
Baltimore is done at 18 out, and Toronto doesn’t have the pitching to get back in the race at 11 out. I think Tampa’s going to flounder around on the border of relevance the rest of the way, but I’ve got this coming down to Boston and New York. The league’s two best teams are separated by one game and play each other 9 more times – 6 in Boston 8/5-8/7 and 8/30-9/1 with 3 in New York 9/23-9/25. They both play Tampa Bay 13 more times (BOS 7 at home, NYY 6 at home), so even if they don’t contend for the division, the Rays will have something to say about who wins it. A-Rod will miss a month or more after knee surgery which will surely be felt on the shallow Yankee bench. Granderson and Cano are potent, but Teixeira needs to make more contact and Gardner needs to be more of a threat. Their pitching is getting a boost from senor citizens Garcia and Colon and hope to finally have a healthy-armed Hughes for the second half. Boston’s pitching armor has its chinks. Beckett, Buchholz, and Lester are hobbled, Lackey has a 6.84 ERA, and Tim Wakefield doesn’t belong in a 2011 MLB rotation. I think Crawford is going to return healthy and resemble the pre-first half fabrication we’ve been witnessing. In addition to the obvious importance of their rotation’s health, Crawford’s second half performance could be the most critical factor in this race. Boston will pull this out by 3 games, but the Yankees win the wild card. I think the main keys are Boston gets healthy, Crawford is a huge spark, and Colon and Garcia both regress a bit.

AL Central
Kansas City is the only team I’m counting out at this point, as Minnesota has shown they can make a late run. I think they’ve got a better shot of getting back into this thing than the disappointingly inconsistent White Sox. This just in – Adam Dunn is atrocious. Cleveland is only ½ game out at the break, but I think Detroit pulls away in the end and wins it by 3-5 games. Of my division winner picks, this is the one in which I’m most confident. I think the Tigers end up making a move for a pitcher to go between Verlander and Scherzer at the deadline. The top 3 guys I’d target are Wandy Rodriguez, Francisco Liriano, and Hiroki Kuroda. I think Wandy has the chance to be the most dangerous in a short series and would slot in very nicely between the two power righties. Other options might include John Danks, Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez, Erik Bedard Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, Carl Pavano, Jeremy Guthrie, Mike Pelfrey, and Brett Myers.

AL West
I’ve already touched on how bad Oakland is, and mid-May surge aside, the Mariners aren’t any better. This is a two team race, and as easy as it looks to pick the Rangers to put the Angels (1 game back) comfortably in their rear view, something tells me this will be tight until the end. I’m taking the Angels. I think pitching is going to be an issue for Texas the rest of the way, and while the Angels aren’t a terribly inspiring team, they do enough in all areas to be a factor for the long run. It never hurts to have Weaver and Haren atop your rotation either, and I think they’ll be the difference makers. Also, the Angels and Rangers square off 13 more times this year, and a whopping 10 of those matchups will occur in California. I’ll take pitching and defense over offense in this matchup.

NL East
The Marlins are bad without Josh Johnson, and I don’t think they’ll win anything of significance again with Hanley Ramirez. If they’re smart they’d move him yesterday. Washington flirting with .500 is cute. The Mets have traded K-Rod and will likely move Carlos Beltran in the next week or so as well. Jose Reyes, healthy or not, may be spending his last days in New York. Beltran is being talked about as an option with multiple teams, but how cool would it be to see the Braves pick up Jose Reyes. Talk about a serious move. The Phillies are expected to run away with the division in the second half, but I’m not counting out the Braves erasing this 3.5 game margin. I’ll say the winner takes it by less than 2 games. Loser is the wild card.

NL Central
Houston is bad, and the Cubs aren’t good. Cincinnati can go on a run, but at two games below .500 I don’t think they’re going to be consistent enough in the second half, especially on the mound. I don’t think Cueto will keep it up, and I can’t count on Leake, Arroyo, Wood, or Volquez. Votto, Bruce, and Phillips are solid, but they need more from Stubbs at the top of the lineup. I won’t root against Pittsburgh, but I think they’ll eventually (not quickly) fade. I believe this comes down to St. Louis and Milwaukee, and if the Cardinals can show some semblance of health, I think they take it. Milwaukee’s road ineptitude won’t help them having already played 47 (57%) of their scheduled 82 home games. Greinke will have a better second half, and I’ve got Fielder making a strong run at MVP. All things considered, I have more confidence in the Cardinals. Carpenter appears to be on track again, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they got someone (Kuroda makes a ton of sense) to go with him, Garcia, and Lohse for the playoffs. There’s been buzz that the Rays have interest in Rasmus, and the Cards like Hellickson. That would be a great get for Dave Duncan. Hellickson doesn’t have lights out stuff now and is doing fine. Match him with the pitching coach guru, and he’ll put up more zeros.

NL West
The Padres have a chance to avoid the basement for a third year in a row, but they shouldn’t celebrate outdoing Frank McCourt’s shit sandwich. I don’t believe Colorado has enough to make another one of their patented runs this year. Tulo and Cargo are both banged up, and I’m not sold on the pitching behind Chacin and a resurgent Ubaldo. That’s a big 8.5 games to make up this year. I think this has a chance to be the most competitive of all division races, with the Diamondbacks and Giants fighting it out the rest of the way. San Francisco doesn’t leave their time zone in September, but Arizona plays 28, yes 28, of their remaining games against the Dodgers and Padres. The numbers don’t support it and the Giants will likely get another big bat (Beltran, Reyes), but I’ll go with the surprise DBacks to take the West.

PLAYOFFS

AL
Red Sox over Angels
Tigers over Yankees

AL Winner – Detroit
The Sox and Yanks are the obvious choices, but I’m going with a bit of a surprise in the Detroit Tigers. They’re a streaky team, have the lineup to produce in the playoffs, have a dominant closer, and are a #2 pitcher away from becoming a serious threat.

NL
Phillies over Cardinals
Braves over Diamondbacks

NL Winner – Philadelphia
I think Atlanta hangs with them the whole way to the NLCS, but Philly’s dangerous short series rotation of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels will be overwhelming in the postseason. I think it would be a great series to watch and would require all seven games.


AWARDS

American League

Rookie of the Year
I came up with 11 players who will likely be in the conversation in the end, but I think I can safely eliminate JP Arencibia, Ben Revere, Zach Britton, Aaron Crow, and Dustin Ackley. Remaining are three hitters and three pitchers. I think Eric Hosmer will end up with a more productive first year than Mark Trumbo, and Jemile Weeks is going to get some votes. This will probably come down to a pitcher, and there are three good ones to choose from. Jordan Walden took over the Angels’ closer job from Fernando Rodney early on and, despite some rough patches, isn’t giving it up. At pitcher, I think this will eventually come down to Jeremy Hellickson and Michael Pineda. I believe Pineda has the more lasting stuff and will prove to be the better rookie come October.

Final voting –
1) Michael Pineda
2) Eric Hosmer
3) Jemile Weeks
4) Jeremy Hellickson
5) Mark Trumbo

MVP
Asdrubal Cabrera was a huge key to Cleveland’s first half surprising success, and David Ortiz is still getting it done at 35. Adrian Beltre and Josh Hamilton will be in the running in the end but may cost each other votes. Paul Konerko is having a hell of a year, but with the Sox stinking, voters will find another option. The Yankees wouldn’t be where they are without Curtis Granderson, and he’ll be huge to them staying with Boston. I think Jose Bautista is going to continue putting up big numbers, but like Konerko, his team isn’t going anywhere. This comes down to Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez. They’ll both be among the league’s best in the power stats, but Gonzalez will likely finish with a sizeable cushion in batting average. I’m looking forward to those two squaring off in the ALCS.

Final voting –
1) Adrian Gonzalez
2) Miguel Cabrera
3) Jose Bautista
4) Curtis Granderson
5) Adrian Beltre

Cy Young
If the first half of the season is any indication, this is going to be a tough one to pick. CC Sabathia leads the majors with 13 wins and appears likely to eclipse 20 for the second year in a row. Justin Verlander is one behind with 12 and has a no-hitter to his credit. Jered Weaver began the year as the most dominant hurler and still holds baseball’s best starter ERA at 1.86. I expect his teammate, Dan Haren, owner of 10 wins and a 2.61 ERA, to be in the mix as well. I think Jon Lester is going to struggle to match stellar numbers with the rest of these guys in the end, and I expect Josh Beckett’s numbers to regress a bit as well. James Shields has an 8-7 record, but his 2.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP are nearly identical to Beckett’s numbers. I’ve got this coming down to Verlander and Weaver. I’d love to split it between the two of them, but I think Verlander has a better chance of maintaining his dominance throughout and doesn’t have a teammate (Haren) to fight off for votes. Verlander wins an extremely close race.

Final voting –
1) Justin Verlander
2) Jered Weaver
3) CC Sabathia
4) Josh Beckett
5) Dan Haren

Rookie of the Year
I don’t see as many worthy candidates in the NL as I do in the AL. Dillon Gee has been a pleasant surprise for the Mets, and Josh Collmenter, despite his recent plateau in production, had a nice first half. Domonic Brown should have a better second half, but I think he struggled too much early in his promotion to win this thing. Cory Luebke is a guy to keep an eye on in the second half. I don’t think he’ll be one of the top vote getters, but I predict a very nice run from him in the Padres’ rotation. Danny Espinosa is sporting a blah .242 BA, but he’s on pace for nearly 30 homers and over 90 RBI. If a position player wins the award, I think it’s going to be him. Then there’s the Braves who I think end up with three legit candidates – Freddie Freeman, Brandon Beachy, and Craig Kimbrel. I put Freeman just behind Espinosa and think he might be the best of this bunch this time next year. Beachy spent some time on the DL, but his impressive 78/15 K/BB ratio is something to follow and admire. Kimbrel may have the equally dominant Johnny Venters breathing down his neck, but his 28 saves lead all of baseball. His 70 strikeouts blow away the rest of the competition as John Axford (53), John Papelbon (51), Carlos Marmol (52), and Sergio Santos (56) are the only other closers with at least 50 Ks.

Final voting –
1) Craig Kimbrel
2) Danny Espinosa
3) Freddie Freeman
4) Domonic Brown
5) Brandon Beachy

MVP
To me the NL’s class lacks the oomph of the AL’s. At this point there are 6 or 7 guys I think have a legit shot at the award. One of them is currently disabled, and when he gets healthy he might be suiting up in a new uniform. Depending on where he ends up, Reyes will look to extend his huge BA and triple bagger cushions. Andrew McCutchen has established himself as Pittsburgh’s offensive centerpiece, but I think he’ll be lacking in numbers in the end. This year’s Justin Upton, fortunately, resembles the ’09 version rather than last year’s, and if Arizona hangs in like I think they will, it will be largely due to his success. Troy Tulowitzki had a huge April and a strong June, but May and July haven't been kind. As long as his quad issue doesn't linger, I think he and not CarGo will be the Rockies' catalyst this year. Expect a strong finish from him. Lance Berkman, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Matt Kemp were the league’s three best all-round hitters in the first half, and I think Berkman has the best chance of slipping the rest of the way. That leaves two Brewers and the only decent Dodger as finalists. I’ve got to think Kemp slips a bit because of the garbage around him in LA, and Fielder has to be the hungrier Brewer at this point with a huge payday looming this offseason. They may not win the Central, but it won’t be Fielder’s fault. It’s a close call, but as he did at the All Star Game, Prince gets the regular season’s MVP crown.

Final voting –
1) Prince Fielder
2) Matt Kemp
3) Jose Reyes
4) Ryan Braun
5) Troy Tulowitzki

Cy Young
Just as I think the NL will come down to the Phillies and Braves, so to will the NL Cy Young. Jair Jurrjens’ ERA is just one hundredth of a point higher than baseball’s best, and his 12 wins lead the league as well. Of any of the NL’s top hurlers, his numbers are likely to regress a bit, as he’s the “weakest” strikeout threat of the bunch, but he’s a great bet for at least 20 wins behind his efficient pitching and Atlanta’s lineup. Tommy Hanson has won 5 straight decisions and is becoming an automatic great start. The Phillies’ top three guys have a combined 31 wins, WHIPs right at or below 1.00, and ERAs well under 3.00. Halladay is Halladay, but I really love the step forward Hamels took this year by harnessing a slider. Maybe Kevin Correia surprises everyone and makes a huge run in the second half, but a Brave or Phillie should end up with this thing.

Final voting –
1) Roy Halladay
2) Cole Hamels
3) Jair Jurrjens
4) Cliff Lee
5) Tommy Hanson