2012 NFL Predictions - AFC East

 1) New England Patriots

Key Gets – Brandon Lloyd (WR, Rams), Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse), Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama), Bobby Carpenter (LB, Lions)

Key Gones – BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, Bengals), Andre Carter (DE, FA), Mark Anderson (DE, Bills)

Key Games – wk3 @ Ravens, wk4 @ Bills, wk5 v. Broncos, wk7 v. Jets, wk 8 @ Rams, wk10 v. Bills, wk 12 @ Jets, wk 14 v. Texans, wk 15 v. 49ers

If only Wes Welker had made just one more catch.  It was 2^nd and 11 with just over 4 minutes to go in Super Bowl XLVI when Welker got free behind the Giant secondary and dropped a pass he’d hauled in countless times before at New York’s 20.  Unable to convert, the Patriots punted the ball away and for the second time in five years fell victim to an Eli Manning Super Bowl comeback victory.  So the question I have is this – Do the Patriots get off the canvas and back to the top of the conference, or is it someone else’s time.  Houston?  Pittsburgh? 

Despite the presence of arguably the game’s best tight end, Rob Gronkowski, and fellow phenom Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady suffered (if you can say a 13-3 team suffered) from the lack of a vertical threat.  Enter Brandon Lloyd.  The veteran receiver follows former coach Josh McDaniels to the Patriots and gives the Patriots the most legit receiver they’ve had opposite Welker since before Moss quit trying.  The sky is the limit for Lloyd in this offense, but I think the star of the show is going to be Hernandez.  I look for the third year tight end to be nearly uncoverable.  Speaking of Welker, one has to wonder if watching both of the tight ends land big extensions will have any effect on his play.  Welker is 31, and if Lloyd makes the impact I expect he will, the Patriots might watch Welker walk next March.  Second year back Stevan Ridley figures to take over the bulk of the backfield work with BenJarvus Green-Ellis moving on to Cincinnati.  Assisting Brady and the run game is quite possibly the league’s deepest offensive line.  Nate Solder slides in at left tackle for the retired Matt Light, but the rest of the unit returns intact.  I fully expect Brady to have another MVP caliber season, and the play of his offensive line should be a key factor in him doing so. 

The defense got a much needed boost on April 26 when Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower became Patriots.  Jones is the guy I mocked going to the Jaguars at #7 overall as someone with a huge upside and ability to contribute right away.  Bill Belichick is counting on him doing just that as Jones steps into the starting spot vacated by Andre Carter.  I see him finishing in the top five in Defensive ROY voting at the end of the season.  Hightower looks to contribute right away as well.  He’ll bring his versatility and physicality to a group that already consists of standout Jerod Mayo and another intense linebacker in Brandon Spikes.  You can’t not mention Vince Wilfork, the big man in the middle still demanding double teams.  Things aren’t as rosy in the secondary.  Devin McCourty fell off in a big way in his sophomore season, and Ras-I Dowling couldn’t shake a hip injury and end up missing almost all season.  Kyle Arrington and his NFL leading 8 INTs are certainly a bright spot, and if Alfonzo Dennard can behave and get over a training camp hamstring problem he could be a draft day steal.  At safety, Patrick Chung hasn’t yet reached the level I expected he would by now.  He’s likely to be flanked at free safety by free agent signee Steve Gregory; a versatile veteran who projects well in this scheme. 

Last year they went 13-3 with a subpar secondary and a pass rush led by two guys who are no longer on the team (Andre Carter and Mark Anderson).  I think they’re better at RB with Vereen, obviously better at receiver with Lloyd over the pedestrian Deion Branch and Chad Johnson, and rejuvenated up front defensively with Jones and Hightower.  It would be a disappointment if they didn’t again reach the conference title game.  

Team MVP – Tom Brady

Breakout Player – Chandler Jones

Disappointment – Wes Welker

2) Buffalo Bills

Key Gets – Mario Williams (LB, Texans), Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina), Cordy Glenn (OL, Georgia), Mark Anderson (DE, Patriots), Nigel Bradham (LB, FSU), Zebrie Sanders (T, FSU)

Key Gones – Demetrius Bell (T, Eagles)

Kay Games – wk1 @ Jets, wk4 v. Patriots, wk5 @ 49ers, wk9 @ Texans, wk10 @ Patriots, wk14 v. Rams, wk17 v. Jets

Buffalo started 5-2 last year, including victories over New England and Philadelphia, but it was all downhill from there.  The Bills went 1-8 the rest of the way, losing 7 in a row for most of that stretch and finished in last place.  In a completely related event, Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled through the second half for the second year in a row and led the league in INTs with 23.  For some perspective, the offensive line led the league in sacks allowed with, yes, 23.  That tells me Fitzpatrick is simply making poor decisions with the football.  The defense was a sieve, allowing the most yards per game in team history.  They were also among the league’s worst at getting after the passer.  Will things be different in 2012?

Fred Jackson returns from a broken leg and teams with CJ Spiller to give the Bills a solid rushing combo.  Spiller more than held his own in Jackson’s absence, showing the rushing and receiving skills the Bills thought they were getting when taking him 9^th overall in 2010.  Stevie Johnson returns as the #1 receiver with Donald Jones and David Nelson vying for the other starting spot.  Johnson topped 1,000 yards for the second straight season but didn’t take his game to the next level as hoped.  After signing a big extension in March, will he be content with where his is as a player, or will he take that next step?  Up front, they’re really large at tackle with rookie LT Cordy Glenn and RT Erik Pears.  This is an underrated unit that should be even better with the acquisition of Glenn and the return to health of center Eric Wood.  The success of this offense will hinge upon the decision making of Fitzpatrick. 

One way to address defensive deficiencies is to replace the coordinator.  They did that by hiring veteran coach Dave Wannstedt.  Another way to get better is to get yourself a game changing force.  They did that by signing Mario Williams in free agency.  The former Texan heads north and will be the marquee player on this squad.  In Buffalo Williams returns to a 4-3 scheme more suiting his skills and will be lining up next to promising tackle Marcell Dareus.  In the secondary, 2012 draftee Stephon Gilmore steps in as a starter across 2011 draftee Aaron Williams giving the Bills two potential long term fixtures at corner.  If those two can handle themselves on the boundaries Mario Williams will reap the benefits.  The key to this defense though may be MLB Kelvin Sheppard, the second year player from LSU.  The Bills are really excited the fast and physical backer. 

If all goes according to plan, the Bills will lean heavily on Jackson and Spiller in the ground game.  I believe Fitzpatrick can lead this team to the playoffs, but he’s got to significantly cut down on the turnovers, especially if the defense doesn’t make strides.  If the defense does stiffen, the Bills should be in line for a shot at their first playoff appearance since 1999.  

Team MVP – Fred Jackson

Breakout Player – Kelvin Sheppard

Disappointment – Leodis McKelvin

  

3) New York Jets

Key Gets – Tim Tebow (QB, Broncos), LaRon Landry (S, Redskins), Yeremiah Bell (S, Dolphins), Quinton Coples (DE, UNC), Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech), Demario Davis (LB, Arkansas St)

Key Gones – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, FA), Plaxico Burress (WR, FA), Jim Leonhard (S, Broncos)

Key Games – wk1 v. Bills, wk2 @ Steelers, wk4 v. 49ers, wk5 v. Texans, wk7 @ Patriots, wk11 @ Rams, wk16 v. Chargers, wk17 @ Bills

Last year saw the Jets finish 8-8, the team’s worst record since 2007, and miss the conference championship game for the first time in the last three seasons.  They suffered through two separate three game losing streaks and were a meager 2-6 away from home. 

Offensively, Mark Sanchez threw 9 more TDs than the previous season but also tossed 5 more INTs as well.  I’m still not a fan, and I don’t see how he’s going to get any better with the Teblow sideshow coming to town.  Shonn Greene achieved 1K for the first time in his career, but he’s a limited runner who might have already shown his potential.  Gone are veterans Plaxico Burress and LaDainian Tomlinson, and the lone proven wide receiver, Santonio Holmes is sidelined this preseason with a rib injury.  Will Stephen Hill be a reliable weapon in his first season?  Dustin Keller has increased his seen his production go up over the last three seasons, but are the Jets getting any better with him as the center of the passing game?  Up front, Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson are still among the game’s elite at their positions, but the rest of the unit makes you cringe.  Matt Slauson was basically handed his old job because Vladimir Ducasse has been too big of a bust to replace him, and RT Wayne Hunter is arguably the game’s worst starting tackle. 

The defense doesn’t appear to be sprinting in the right direction either.  Darrelle Revis remains one of the game’s best, but there were rumblings of a holdout this offseason due to unhappiness about a contract to which there remains two years.  I see things getting worse rather than better in this situation.  David Harris remains the stabilizing force of the defense, but he doesn’t appear to be taking his game to the next level.  The situation at safety was atrocious, so they brought in LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell.  The former still isn’t completely back from his Achilles injury.  On the positive side, Sione Pouha and Muhammad Wilkerson are two strong forces up front, and Quinton Coples has earned positive reviews so far.  In the pass rushing department, Calvin Pace should do better now that he appears to be healthy, and Aaron Maybin was a pleasant surprise.  The latter could be even more dangerous with a full training camp under his belt.

The QB situation wreaks of controversy, and I don’t believe Greene is a back this team is going to be able to lean on to get them back to the top of the AFC.  Will the offensive line’s play improve?  Will the Revis situation become an in-season distraction?  I think there’s too much going against this team to get them back to contention this season.  Hey they’ll sell jerseys though. 

Team MVP – Darrelle Revis

Breakout Player – Muhammad Wilkerson

Disappointment – Shonn Greene

  

4) Miami Dolphins

Key Gets – Ryan Tennehill (QB, Texas A&M), David Garrard (QB, Jaguars), Richard Marshall (CB, Cardinals), Jonathan Martin (T, Stanford), Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri), Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)

Key Gones – Yeremiah Bell (S, Jets), Chad Henne (QB, Jaguars)

Key Games – wk1 @ Houston, wk3 v. Jets, wk5 @ Bengals, wk6 v. Rams, wk 8 @ Jets, wk11 @ Bills, wk13 v. Patriots, wk14 @ 49ers, wk16 v. Bills, wk17 @ Patriots

The Tony Sparano era is over.  After an 11-5 record and playoff berth in his first season as head coach in 2008, the Dolphins went 18-27 the rest of his tenure with three straight losing seasons making that five sub .500 seasons in the last six years.  What can Joe Philbin bring to the table? 

When analyzing any team’s offense one has to first look at the QB position, and even the most optimistic fan would struggle to find a lot of good things to say about their starter.  David Garrard was the #1 in camp, but he went down with a knee injury.  Matt Moore was outplayed by a guy who was out of the league last year, and he’ll likely start week one and every week after until Philbin is ready to hand things over to Ryan Tennehill.  Reggie Bush rushed for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career that he’s rejuvenated in Miami.  He’s the lead rusher ahead of the disappointing Daniel Thomas and promising prospect Lamar Miller.  They may have rid themselves of Brandon Marshall and his problems, but that doesn’t make them any better on the field.  Chad Johnson was signed to ease the on-field loss, but he got dropped after headbutting his wife.  Davone Bess has been a reliable receiver, but he’s not a big playmaker.  Brian Hartline and Legedu Naanee would struggle to shine with Aaron Rodgers getting them the football.  Now throw a rookie under center.  Speaking of centers, the Dolphins are strong there with Mike Pouncey and even stronger with a now healthy Jake Long at left tackle.  In the draft they grabbed Jonathan Martin to upgrade right tackle.  Talented guard John Jerry is getting his ass kicked on Hard Knocks.  Philbin is implementing a zone blocking scheme, so even if everyone’s healthy, they’ll still be learning a new scheme.

Speaking of new schemes, the Dolphins have switched to a 4-3 defense, and I believe it’s going to have its own give and take.  I think the transition will be a success in the pass rushing department.  Cameron Wake was a solid outside linebacker, and he should be even more disruptive playing end, a position he played successfully in the CFL.  

It’s the run defense that concerns me.  They were good against the run in the old scheme, but will that carry over seamlessly in the new defense?  Are Paul Soliai and Randy Starks better off  as 4-3 tackles?  Karlos Dansby will be a stud wherever you line him up, but Koa Misi and Kevin Burnett are uninspiring on the outside.  At corner, Sean Smith has settled in nicely in one spot, but Vontae Davis was deep in the doghouse and eventually dealt to Indianapolis.  The capable Richard Marshall will take his spot.  Will Yeremiah Bell’s loss be felt on the back end?

In my opinion the Dolphins are clearly the fourth best in their division.  They’re implementing new offenses and defenses and have too many questions in key positions. It’s going to be another long year on South Beach. 

Team MVP – Reggie Bush

Breakout Player – Jared Odrick

Disappointment – Their Entire Passing Game

Division MVP – Tom Brady

Division Breakout Player – Chandler Jones

Division Disappointment – Shonn Greene

2012 MLB All Stars - The REAL Team

This year’s All Star Game rosters have been announced, but I’d like to tell you what they really should look like.  I don’t take that silly guideline of every team needing representation into account, as my rosters are made up of the 68 most deserving players, regardless of team.

American League

(starters listed first)

Catcher

AJ Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia

None of the three catchers on the “real” team make mine.  Mike Napoli gets the fan vote, and Joe Mauer and Matt Wieters are the backups.  Far be it for me to defend the asshat that is AJ Pierzynski, but I don’t see how Wieters gets an invite over him; makes no sense.  Saltalamacchia has been huge for Boston.  I’d take him over Mauer and his high BA.

First Base

Paul Konerko and Prince Fielder

Prince gets the fan vote, but Konerko deserves the start and would deserve strong consideration for midway MVP if that award existed. 

Second Base

Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler

Cano is scary good.  He should win this vote for the next ten years.  Ian Kinsler made the team too, but I’d like to see how close it was between him and Jeff Kipnis.  

Shortstop

Derek Jeter and Asdrubal Cabrera

Jeter and Cabrera made the official squad as well, but I would have left Elvis Andrus off.  He’s deserving but was a numbers casualty on my team. 

Third Base

Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre

MLB got the players right, but I’d start Cabrera.  He leads the majors in hits with runners in scoring position. 

Outfield

Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, and Alex Rios

Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, and Bautista win the fan vote, but Granderson didn’t even make my team.  Yes, I see the 23 homers, but the guy is hitting .246, has 91 strikeouts, and has a lower OPS than Josh Reddick, another deserving player left off the official roster.  Trumbo and Trout deservingly made the team, and Trumbo starts for me.  He’s been that good.  Rios deserved to make the official team, and Austin Jackson could have had a legit beef had he not been sidelined for a short stretch. 

Designated Hitter

Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, and Billy Butler

Here’s my biggest gripe about the AL roster.  How in the hell does Adam Dunn make the team over Encarnacion?  Is it because he has a whopping 2 more homers?  Well he has 1 since June 15.  Did the voters see his 125 Ks as a plus?  What a joke. 

Starters

Chris Sale, Jered Weaver, CJ Wilson, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, David Price, Matt Harrison, Jason Hammel, Yu Darvish

Weaver’s no-no earns him the start over Sale.  If I’m slotting pitchers, I’d run Weaver and Sale out there for two innings each, follow with Verlander, Price, and Darvish for the next two, and then go to the pen.  Felix Hernandez is the only starter on the official squad that I didn’t choose.  Yes, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, but he’s just not gotten it done on the field this year.  That matters.  Hammel deserves to make the team, and Darvish’s fate shouldn’t be coming down to a fan vote.

Relievers

Fernando Rodney, Chris Perez, Jim Johnson, Joe Nathan, Rafael Soriano, Scott Downs

Ryan Cook is having a nice year, but I think he’s on the team due to the ‘every team represented’ requirement.  Rodney has had a heck of a season, and Soriano should be recognized for the work he’s done in both Mariano Rivera’s and David Robertson’s absence.  Downs has played both the closer and set up roles to near perfection this season.  I have plenty of pitching on this team, but Downs is more of an All Star to me than Curtis Granderson. 

National League

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz, Buster Posey, and Yadier Molina

No gripes here.  All three made the official team. 

First Base

Joey Votto

Brian LaHair doesn’t deserve to make the team, but he did out of positional necessity.  What I would do with my team is let Ruiz and Molina handle the catching duties which would allow Posey to serve as Votto’s backup at first base.

Second Base

Aaron Hill and Jose Altuve

Dan Uggla gets the fan vote but doesn’t belong on the team.  Hill has been the second best second sacker in baseball, and Altuve has been Houston’s best player. 

Shortstop

Ian Desmond and Starlin Castro

Rafael Furcal was voted in, but I’d have him third on my list.  Desmond should be the starter, and as much as I’d like to omit Castro, he probably should be in Kansas City.

Third Base

David Wright and David Freese

Pablo Sandoval is one example why the fans shouldn’t vote for the starters.  Let the fan vote get a player on the team, but since this game truly counts for something, allow the managers to determine who starts.  Wright should be the starter, and it’s not even remotely debatable.

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Braun, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Michael Bourn

Matt Kemp was voted in, but he won’t (and shouldn’t) play.  McCutchen should and probably will draw the start in his place.  Somehow Jay Bruce made the team over Bourn and Hunter Pence.  Someone please make that make sense for me.  I take Bourn over Pence to give me a late game pinch runner option.  In a close game I’d like to have this guy on the bases. 

Starters

R.A. Dickey, Johnny Cueto, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Wade Miley, James McDonald, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Gio Gonzalez, Cole Hamels, AJ Burnett

Seriously, Cueto isn’t an All Star???  In what universe is that true?  That’s the biggest All Star roster screw up.  McDonald doesn’t make the team either?  I understand there are tough calls every year, but come on.  No Vogelsong?  Greinke anyone?  This is ridiculous.  Chris Capuano probably deserved to make the team more than Clayton Kershaw.  If I wanted to win I’d probably let Dickey pitch the whole game, but since it’s somewhat of an exhibition, after he goes two, I’d turn to Strasburg, Hamels, Cueto, Gonzalez, and Cain to get me to the late innings.  

Relievers

Craig Kimbrel, Santiago Casilla, Joel Hanrahan, Tyler Clippard, and Aroldis Chapman

I’d have loved to put Huston Street on the team, but the other guys were more deserving in my opinion.  Jonathan Papelbon should have taken a back seat to all of these guys. 

My Lineups

AL

1) Derek Jeter

2) Robinson Cano

3) Josh Hamilton

4) Paul Konerko

5) Miguel Cabrera

6) Mark Trumbo

7) Adam Jones

8) Edwin Encarnacion

9) AJ Pierzynski

SP – Jered Weaver

9^th inning – Fernando Rodney

NL

1) Andrew McCutchen

2) David Wright

3) Joey Votto

4) Ryan Braun

5) Carlos Beltran

6) Carlos Gonzalez (DH)

7) Carlos Ruiz

8) Aaron Hill

9) Ian Desmond

SP – R.A. Dickey

9^th inning – Craig Kimbrel

Most Deserving Omissions

AL – Josh Willingham

NL – Huston Street

Willingham really earned an All Star selection, but I just ran out of spots.  It would be either him or Alex Rios, and I feel Rios is more deserving.  Street has been one of the best closers in baseball this year, but, through no fault of his own, he just hasn’t had enough opportunities.  The closers I took have all faced more stressful and meaningful 9^th innings this year.  

Wait Until Next Year

AL – Ernesto Frieri

NL – Paul Goldschmidt

You could argue that Frieri should be on this year’s squad.  He’s been electric in his time as closer, but I felt his teammate, Scott Downs, was just slightly more deserving of the honor.  I think Goldschmidt will be the NL’s second best first baseman this time next year, and if that pans out, he’ll be a member of this team for the foreseeable future.

MLB - NL Division Races

NL East

Wow.  The NL East has to be the most surprising division in baseball.  Sitting on top of the heap are the Washington Nationals thanks in large part to the major’s best pitching staff.  The top three arms in their rotation, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmerman, each has a sub-3.00 ERA.  The bullpen has a solid threesome of its own in Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen, and Sean Burnett.  Clippard has filled in more than admirably in closer Drew Storen’s absence.  They’re doing everything right in the pitching department, and they might need to keep it up in order to remain on top considering they have one of the game’s weaker offenses.  Bryce Harper didn’t have to wait long to get the call, and he’s been putting up his share of highlights in the first half, most notably his hustle doubles.  He’s well on his way to winning ROY honors.  Ian Desmond doesn’t get talked about much, but he’s one of the better all-round SS in baseball.  Ryan Zimmerman has been dealing with a shoulder issue since April but is starting to put together a Zimmerman-like hitting streak.  As a fan without a vested interest in this division, it’s hard to not root for these guys.

The Nationals are in first place, but the Mets are the most pleasant surprise in the division.  Picked by most to finish last again, the Mets are currently six games over .500 and finally notched a no-hitter for the franchise when Johan Santana stifled the Cardinals June 1.  David Wright led baseball in hitting for a good stretch of the first half, but the rest of the offense is more clutch than consistent when it comes to hitting.  R.A. Dickey is one of the best stories of this first half.  He threw two near no-hitters in back-to-back games and gave up zero earned runs for five straight starts.  Can Wright continue carrying a limited offense?  Can Dickey and Santana continue carrying a mediocre starting staff and shaky bullpen? 

Atlanta’s lying in the weeds within reach of first place.  Chipper Jones is taking the farewell tour, and Jason Heyward is doing a good job trying to establish himself as the next Mr. Brave.  Michael Bourn is having a great year and is providing some pop (7 homers) from the leadoff spot.  Unfortunately, first half ace (and Cy Young candidate) Brandon Beachy is now out for the year and facing Tommy John surgery.  Tommy Hanson sill looks like a 1a starter rather than a #1, but they’re getting great stuff from the soon to be 37 Tim Hudson.  Craig Kimbrel has only faltered once in 23 save opportunities and makes nearly every game an 8 inning affair.

The division’s Jekyll and Hyde resides in Miami.  The Marlins were baseball’s best team in May but were its most awful in June.  They’re the fourth worst hitting team in the game and aren’t getting much from their big dollar duo of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.  Giancarlo Stanton is the lone bright spot, but he did nearly all of his damage in a huge May.  The pitching hasn’t been there.  Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, and Anibal Sanchez all have losing records and ERAs over 3.50.  Josh Johnson is looking good of late though, but there’s just not enough around him.  And oh my is it painful to watch Heath Bell attempt to close games.

Bringing up the rear are the shocking last place Phillies.  They’ve looked really anemic offensively without Ryan Howard and, until recently, Chase Utley.  Cliff Lee doesn’t have a single win through the first three months of the season, and Roy Halladay has been out with a shoulder injury since late May.  It’s going to take a hell of a lot of magic to make them relevant in the second half. 

Most Impressive Team – Washington Nationals

Most Impressive Player – R.A. Dickey

Most Disappointing Team – Philadelphia Phillies

Most Disappointing Player – Cliff Lee

NL Central

I see the Central as a three team race the rest of the way.  The team sitting on top of the division is the Cincinnati Reds, and through no coincidence, Joey Votto is well on his way to winning his second MVP in three seasons.  He’s among the league leaders in all offensive categories except steals and is the rock in the middle of a lineup with some pop.  Brandon Phillips heats up with the weather, and Jay Bruce is tied for third in the NL in homers.  June has been Ryan Ludwick’s best month, but if they were able to upgrade over him in left field, they might put some distance between them and the rest of the division.  Johnny Cueto is having a great year and would be among the top vote getters for the half way Cy Young, but the second half of that desired deadly 1-2 combo, Mat Latos, hasn’t delivered as hoped.  He’s 24^th in the NL in K’s, but only two players rated higher than him have a higher ERA (Lincecum and Samardzija).  He’s doesn’t look like a playoff #2 at the moment, but maybe Mike Leake is.  Leake doesn’t have the Ws to show for it, but he’s been dominant in June.  We know he has the stuff, but can he maintain it this year?  Aroldis Champan was unhittable in April and May, so despite the recent hiccups, he’s still one of the game’s elite closers.  I still see the Reds winning this division.

Pittsburgh is the Rodney Dangerfield of major league baseball.  They just don’t get any respect.  If Joey Votto doesn’t win the MVP, the award winner might still come from this division.  Andrew McCutchen is this team’s offense – hitting for power, average, and racking up double digit steals.  I think he’ll maintain, but can they keep posting wins when Pedro Alvarez can’t hit his weight and no other regular besides McCutchen is hitting at least .270.  McCutchen’s help comes from the hurlers.  Leading one of the game’s best staffs of the season is James McDonald.  The former Dodger has thrown like an elite #1 this year.  He has an impressive 7 wins, but he could easily have another 4.  The Pirates are 10-5 in games McDonald starts, and in 4 of those 5 losses, McDonald pitched a total 28 innings giving up 1 ER in each contest.  AJ Burnett has been awesome as well and has a great chance to earn his most wins since ’08.    Joel Hanrahan is on his way to a second straight All Star game.  Will the Pirates sink like last year?  They traded for hitting at last season’s deadline (Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick) and will likely need to do so again in order to hang in this thing.

Last year’s champs sit in third place and are weathering more than their fair share of injuries.  A significant knee injury has limited Lance Berkman to just 13 games, John Jay missed more than a month, Skip Schumaker was sidelined two weeks twice, Jaime Garcia may need shoulder surgery, and Chris Carpenter still hasn’t thrown a pitch this year.  The lineup still has plenty of pop.  Carlos Beltran has far surpassed his free agency expectations, and Allen Craig has been a great source of power.  In addition to his defensive excellence, Yadier Molina is getting it done again offensively.  Their pitching has been very unCardinal-like.  Adam Wainwright hasn’t completely turned the corner, and Lance Lynn seems to be falling back to earth after a huge start to the season.  Kyle Lohse has been their most efficient pitcher, but he’s never been a true stopper.  Despite the offensive output, they must get better pitching if they want to have a shot at defending their title.

The Brewers definitely miss Prince Fielder.  Ryan Braun has remained his typical MVP self despite the lack of adequate protection, but Aramis Ramirez isn’t making anyone forget Cecil’s son.  Corey Hart provides pop, but he’s not a consistent threat.  The biggest disappointment so far has been Rickie Weeks.  The All Star second baseman has more strikeouts than total bases and is hitting well below .200.  Zack Greinke is a stud.  He just doesn’t lose at Miller Park, despite its reputation as a hitter friendly stadium.  If the Brewers decide to deal the impending free agent, the Dodgers better race to the phone.  Yovani Gallardo has slipped, Shaun Marcum is dealing with an elbow issue, and Randy Wolf is just about done.  John Axford makes Heath Bell look stable, and Francisco Rodriguez is still pouting because he’s not a closer.  The Brewers don’t have the firepower to make a run.

Houston’s remaining goal is to stay ahead of Chicago and out of last place.  Jose Altuve has been the bright spot offensively, as the diminutive second baseman leads the team in batting average, total bases, and on base percentage.  The pitching is worse.  Lucas Harrell has been somewhat entertaining to watch, but none of them strikes fear in an opposing lineup. 

The Cubs are probably the worst team in baseball.  Anyone worth a darn not named Rizzo or Castro will likely be dealt in the next month.  That includes Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, and Brian LaHair.  Sarlin Castro still hasn’t figured out what it takes mentally to be a star, and Carlos Marmol might be the worst closer in baseball.

Most Impressive Team – Pittsburgh Pirates

Most Impressive Player – Andrew McCutchen

Most Disappointing Team – Milwaukee Brewers

Most Disappointing Player – Rickie Weeks

NL West

When trying to pinpoint the keys to San Francisco’s success this season, you’ve got to start with the pitching.  Individual players stepping up started early in the year when the Beard went down with an elbow injury that forced him to undergo his second Tommy John surgery.  In his stead, Santiago Casilla has racked up over 20 first half saves, giving him the third highest save total in the majors.  Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Madison Bumgarner are all worthy of All Star invites.  Cain threw a perfect game and owns a sub-1.00 WHIP, Vogelsong owns the league’s 4^th best ERA, and Bumgarner has racked up 10 wins.  Don’t look now, but Tim Lincecum seems to be finally getting it together, so that would be four studs in a rotation backed by an improved offense.  Buster Posey may be the franchise player, but Melky Cabrera is having a better year thus far.  Cabrera is showing that last year’s career year was no fluke, as he’s among baseball’s best hitters with a .350 average.  Angel Pagan has been a fine acquisition in center field, and Pablo Sandoval is just getting back into action after undergoing hand surgery.  When you’ve got pitching, you can weather batting slumps, but when you’ve got this kind of pitching, it’s almost unfair.  I don’t think they’ll run off and hide with the division lead, but they’re definitely in it for the long haul. 

After owning baseball’s best record for a good stretch of the early season, the Dodgers have sputtered of late, giving up that designation as well as their hold on the division lead.  You don’t have to look far to figure out why.  Stud center fielder Matt Kemp has missed a large part of the first half with a hamstring injury, and there’s perhaps no other player in baseball who has such a direct impact on his team’s performance than Kemp.  This team resembled the historic ’88 squad in that aside from Kemp (Kirk Gibson) the offense is without any real superstar talents and gets its wins on the strength of its pitching and various role players stepping up in key moments.  Without Kemp and now Andre Ethier (oblique) this is really a toothless lineup.  Unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll be able to fix enough of the offensive holes in-season to make a championship run.  Their pitching was a huge strength early on, but Ted Lilly has been dealing with shoulder inflammation, Chad Billingsley peaked four years ago, and Aaron Harang is starting to pitch like Aaron Harang.  Even Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been his dominant self.  The reigning Cy Young has a pedestrian 5-4 record through 16 starts and had only one dominant outing in his last six trips to the hill.  I expect the ownership to put this team in the best position to be as competitive as possible, but I’m not sure it will matter unless Kemp gets back real quick. 

I was high on the Diamondbacks in the preseason, and despite their third place positioning, I still think they’ll be the team to reckon with come October.  They got nothing from Justin Upton over the first two months, played without Chris Young for a long stretch and Stephen Drew even longer, and have had some very inconsistent pitching from their starters.  Still, they sit just a handful of games outside of first place.  Upton has had a hot June, but their three most dangerous offensive players have been Aaron Hill, Jason Kubel, and Paul Goldschmidt.  Hill has hit for the cycle twice this year, and only Robinson Cano has been a more productive second sacker.  Kubel has been a very consistent producer and looks to be making a run at topping his career year numbers from ’09.  Goldschmidt is tied with Hill and Kubel for the team lead in homers but has 54 less ABs than Hill and 37 less than Kubel.  He’s also 8^th in the majors in total bases for first basemen despite not having been an every day player.  The key to whether or not they can repeat as division champs will be their second half pitching, more specifically, ace Ian Kennedy who has looked anything but this season.  He posted a 2.88 ERA last year but hasn’t seen 3.00 since April 12.  Daniel Hudson is lost for the year with an elbow injury, and both Trevor Cahill and Joe Saunders have been too inconsistent.  Wade Miley has been a real bright spot, and phenom Trevor Bauer just got the call. Still, a second half Kennedy rebound is key. 

Not a lot of good things going on in Colorado.  Troy Tulowitzki will miss at least a decent chunk of the second half after undergoing groin surgery.  Carlos Gonzalez still looks like one of the best players in the game, but the pitching has been awful.  Jim Tracy is getting a lot of heat for his new ‘6 man 75 pitch limit’ rotation.  Aside from youngster Derw Pomeranz, there isn’t a starter on that team I’d want taking the ball for my team.

The Padres are expectedly awful.  Houston Street has been awesome, but it’s hard to earn saves when your team doesn’t often have the lead.  No starter has 6 wins, and no hitter has 10 homers.  Whole lot of nothing going on in San Diego. 

Most Impressive Team – Los Angeles Dodgers

Most Impressive Player – Melky Cabrera

Most Disappointing Team – Arizona Diamondbacks

Most Disappointing Player – Justin Upton

MLB - AL Division Races

AL East

After a quiet start the Yankees have climbed to the top of the division due in large part to a recent 10 game win streak and by taking 14 of their first 16 June contests.  Curtis Granderson has paced the offense with 21 homers and 40 RBI, and Mr. Yankee Derek Jeter is experience a resurgence, bouncing back after two down seasons.  CC Sabathia is still the team’s ace, but he’s not been as sharp.  Yes he’s 9-3, but he’s getting hit too much and doesn’t look like the dominant CC we’ve seen in this past.  Ivan Nova has shined in June and matches CC’s 9 wins.  Andy Pettitte returned and has looked both like his old self and a guy who hasn’t pitched in over a year.  Phil Hughes still hasn’t found it, and they don’t score often for Hiroki Kuroda.  Despite losing Mariano Rivera to that freak knee injury and David Robertson to an oblique issue, the bullpen has held it together, most notably Rafael Soriano who has switched successfully between closer and set up roles.  He’s better off in the closer role where he shined for the Rays.  Due to their reliance on the long ball, their inability to hit with runners in scoring position, and the fact that both CC and Pettitte just went on the DL, the Yankees aren’t likely to run away with this thing.   

Baltimore has been one of the league’s biggest surprises this year.  Leading that list of surprises are pitchers Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen, both owners of 7 pitching victories thus far.  The former got knocked around with regularity as a Rockie, and the latter was an unheralded Japanese acquisition.  Easily the best player on the team is Adam Jones.  The young stud leads the team in all offensive categories, and with a recently signed long term deal in his back pocket, he should be playing stress-free as he continues growing into one of the game’s best talents.

The Rays are hanging in there with what seems like a smoke and mirrors act in Evan Longoria’s absence.  There isn’t a scary bat in that lineup, and after holding the division lead for a bit they’re falling several games back of the Yankees.  Longoria can’t come back soon enough.  Joe Maddon is one of the game’s best managers, but he can’t limit the uncharacteristically high number of errors his team has made.  I still think they’re a better team without BJ Upton (his defensive lapses rival Alfonso Soriano’s), and they’ve got to get something from the talented but stuck in neutral Desmond Jennings.

Toronto is above .500, but they’re, again, in the wrong division.  Their pitchers are dropping like flies, and their swing for the fences approach isn’t conducive to many extensive winning streaks.

Bobby Valentine’s first year as the Sox skipper got off to an undesirably explosive start with the Kevin Youkilis drama.  I know Jacoby Ellsbury is a big loss, but these guys look old and unmotivated.  Dustin Pedroia and stud rookie Will Middlebrooks are the exceptions. 

Most Impressive

Team – Baltimore Orioles

Player – Adam Jones

Most Disappointing

Team – Boston Red Sox

Player – Adrian Gonzalez

AL Central

If you had told me in April that the White Sox would be leading the Central in late June I would have said you’re nuts.  Paul Konerko just keeps mashing baseballs.  He’s on pace for another 30+ homers and is currently second in the league in hitting.  Adding Kevin Youkilis was a solid move.  Third base has been a black hole since Robin Ventura left after the ’98 season, and I don’t expect Youkilis to keep his batting average near his weight.  While they have one of the game’s most efficient offenses, they can’t lean on their pitching as the have in years past.  Young ace-in-the-making Chris Sale is exceeding his lofty expectations with 8 wins and narrow 2.46 ERA that is only second in the AL to CJ Wilson’s 2.30.  Jake Peavy is healthy and productive.  He’s tallied 6 wins and his 0.97 WHIP trails only Jered Weaver’s 0.93 in the AL.  The most important player on this team may be Jose Quintana.  The young hurler has been extremely impressive in his short time, and if he can keep it up he just might be the #3 to get them to and throught he playoffs.  That was the good.  The ugly?  Gavin Floyd is getting shelled, John Danks was too before going out with the shoulder injury, and Phil Humber’s perfect game was an aberration.  They also have one of the league’s shakiest bullpens.  The Central is probably the most uncompetitive division in baseball, so they might have enough to hang in there until the end.

Cleveland has tasted first place as well, and Jason Kipinis is big reason the Indians have been contenders in the first half.  He trails only Robinson Cano for homers by a second baseman.  Of the top three teams, I have the hardest time seeing them hang in there.  Derek Lowe is fortunate to have 7 wins, and Ubaldo Jimenez can’t be counted on if he can’t keep his ERA south of 5.  Chris Perez can complain about the fans, but I don’t think the product will be worth cheering for as the season continues. 

Detroit hasn’t done much worth applauding.  Outside of Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Austin Jackson their lineup doesn’t frighten a high school pitcher.  Are Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young, and Jhonny Peralta going to provide any noticeable spike in offensive output?  Dominant outings have been the exception for Justin Verlander this year, so if he’s not lights out, the wins aren’t automatic.  Max Scherzer is as unreliable as they come, Rick Porcello is an innings filler, and Doug Fister has been too injured to make even the most minimal impact.  Neither the White Sox or Indians look like a team that can run away with this thing, but quite frankly, neither do the Tigers.

I find it surprising that the Royals are in 4^th place in what has turned out to be another down year for the division.  Eric Hosmer’s awful start is the only reason people didn’t notice how unproductive Alex Gordon was.  The lone pitching bright spot is in the bullpen.  Jonathan Broxton is 4^th in the league in saves, but the starters have 20 combined wins.  They’re only 5 out at the moment, but I don’t see them going on big run.

Minnesota has been one of the league’s best teams for a short stretch starting in late May, but the fact that they’re in last place in this division tells you how bad they were before the winning spree. 

Most Impressive Team – Chicago White Sox

Most Impressive Player – Chris Sale

Most Disappointing Team – Detroit Tigers

Most Disappointing Player – Eric Hosmer

AL West

They look like they can win pretty much every time they step on the field.  Josh Hamilton is once again one of the game’s offensive leaders, and there’s not an easy out in the lineup.  Yu Darvish is tied for the AL lead in wins with his teammate Matt Harrison and Tampa’s David Price, but his shaky starts against suspect teams are keeping him from owning the lead outright.  Colby Lewis has been hot as of late, but now both he and Harrison are sidelined with injuries.  Until going down, they were reasons the Rangers had been able to keep on trucking despite the injuries to Neftali Feliz and Alexi Ogando and the ineffectiveness of Derek Holland and Scott Feldman.  Their pitching has performed a lot better than I thought that would so far, but I still don’t see them running away from the Angels, especially if the injuries keep piling up.  Roy Oswalt is over the hill, and Justin Grimm isn’t ready to be part of the rotation.  . 

After digging themselves an early hole, the Angels have started putting heat on the Rangers, and Mike Trout is the primary reason for the surge.  The primo prospect has done it all for the Angels.  He’s the spark they’ve been missing and is the perfect table setter for big bats like Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo.  The former took forever to find his stroke but is now swinging the bat like they had hoped he would when handing him that huge contract.  If it weren’t for Trumbo and his offensive production, despite being shuffled all over the field defensively, the gap to Texas would be quite larger.  The pitching has been as advertised with the pleasant surprise of Ernesto Frieri as a lights out closer.  Jeff Weaver finally got a no-no after flirting several times in the past, and CJ Wilson is pitching as well as anyone right now.  I still believe they’ll finish first when all is said and done.

Oakland has played better than anticipated, but they still trail the Rangers by double digits.  Josh Reddick has taken well to the west coast, but it looks like they’ll again be playing for third place.

Seattle will have a hard time escaping the basement.

Most Impressive Team – Texas Rangers

Most Impressive Player – Mark Trumbo

Most Disappointing Team – Los Angeles Angels (for their slow start)

Most Disappointing Player – Albert Pujols

2012 NFL Draft - Review of Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks

Now that was the most enjoyable Buccaneer draft I’ve witnessed in years.  GM Mark Dominik has (rightfully) been under fire for past draft selections and contracts issued, but surrounded with a few football minds in Greg Schiano, Butch Davis, Jimmy Raye, and Mike Sullivan, the Bucs have put together possibly the most impressive offseason in team history.  Sure the Bucs roster wasn’t exactly overflowing with premier talent prior to the March 13.  Most any addition would be an improvement, but they’ve added at least five instant impact players to a team previously having none. 

Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks were the highlights of free agency.  A limited offense was boosted by the additions of the game’s best guard and an upper echelon #1 receiver.  Josh Freeman, the former #1 pick entering year four, needs to show significant strides this season.  He hasn’t been surrounded with the offensive weapons like a lot of other QBs in the league, but after picking up Jackson as his go-to guy, there should be no excuses for not showing noticeable progress. 

Given the known weaknesses in the back seven of the defense, one had to figure the draft would be defense-heavy.  The defensive tackles make you hold your breath every time they get on the field, hoping they don’t get hurt, so bringing in Amobi Okoye was a solid move.  Speaking of injuries – Da’Quan Bowers just tore his Achilles and will miss the whole season if it was a complete tear.  After this, one has to wonder if he’ll ever be a productive pro.  Unfortunately, this injury happened after the draft, so the Bucs are left with a barren free agent market until/unless teams start making cuts later in camp.   That bad news aside, the Bucs have brought in at least five players, including free agent corner Eric Wright, who should make an impact this year on defense. 

Here’s my take on the talent the Bucs drafted and some of the moves made to acquire said talent.

Once the Browns made the move up to #3 to draft Trent Richardson and the Vikings took Matt Kalil at #4, word spread that the Bucs were looking to move down two spots with Jacksonville.  What later became obvious was that Morris Claiborne, the player everyone had Tampa Bay committed to, wasn’t the highest rated remaining player on their board.  When Dallas dealt up to #6 just ahead of Tampa and took the LSU cover man, many fans were upset that the Bucs supposedly missed out on their guy.  If they wanted Claiborne, they would have sat put and taken him at #5.  They wouldn’t have risked that trade with Jacksonville for just a 4^th rounder if they really wanted Claiborne.  .

By moving down two spots to #7 the Bucs acquired a 4^th round pick from the Jaguars, recouping a draft pick that was lost in last year’s draft to move up for Luke Stocker.  That 4^th rounder proved vital as it later helped trigger two additional draft deals  Sure I would have liked to get more than a 4^th rounder for that deal down, especially given what some other teams gave up to move up, but that’s not a big deal in my opinion.  The Bucs got the player they wanted and addressed a huge defensive need.

Mark Barron has been a premier player on an Alabama team loaded with future pros for the last three years.  As the QB of the Crimson Tide’s defense, Barron earned a reputation as an enforcer who combines plus play recognition with a willingness to inflict punishment and the playmaking ability to flip the field.  He’s a certain improvement over Sean Jones and gives the Bucs the most potential they’ve had at the position since John Lynch.  Speaking of the former All Pro, here’s what he had to say about Barron (quote from Tampa Bay Times):

"Now, that's what I'm talking about," Lynch wrote of Barron in his report. "This is a big-time game-changing football player. My own opinion (I know he's hot), is that if he slips and you see an opportunity to go get him, do. This is guy is a start and top-line right now. He will definitely impact a team.

"What do I like so much? Everything. He sees things well. He recognizes and reacts quickly. He has very good athletic ability. He tackles well in space. He demonstrates great ball skills.

"In addition, he's nasty. He finishes, and he finishes violently."

Barron was a pleasant draft day curveball and will become a Buccaneer fan favorite in no time.  As Mike Mayock said – the guy’s ceiling is his floor; an All Pro safety.  There was little to no risk in making the pick.  Barron gives Coach Schiano his defensive leader; a player the team will hopefully be leaning on for the rest of the decade. 

Pick Grade – 10 out of 10

Not only did they land a premier talent, but they recouped a lost 4^th round pick in the process. 

Needless to say, I was thrilled when the Bucs moved back into the 1^st round to make their second selection of day one.  When the trade was announced I was vociferously hoping that Doug Martin was their target, and in a few short minutes, it was revealed that the Boise State back was indeed the next new Buccaneer.  I mentioned my preference for Martin in my offseason preview and had him as the clear #2 back in the draft. 

For the second time in two picks, the Buccaneers score big in an area they sorely lack.  Martin is the complete primary ball carrier the offense was missing.  Sucker Punch was the Bucs #1 guy last year, but his shortcomings are clear.  He doesn’t run hard for a back his size, he can’t catch, and won’t block.  Martin doesn’t give them a compliment to SP.  He makes SP the compliment; a move that had to be made for this offense to reach its potential.  I also love the karma that he’s being replaced by a Boise State Bronco. 

Martin gives Coach Schiano his Ray Rice 2.0; a strong compact runner able to make positive yards both inside and on the edge.  Not only is Martin a noticeable upgrade over SP as a runner, he’s already a solid pass catcher and well ahead of the rookie curve as a pass blocker.  He doesn’t make negative plays and has the potential to be one of the game’s more consistent and productive backs for the foreseeable future. 

Pick Grade – 10 out of 10

Making the move to #31 only cost the Bucs their second rounder and an exchange of 4^th rounders.  Well done.  To me the gap between Martin and the next back in the draft from a complete ball carrier prospective was wide.  The Bucs did well to make sure they got their man.

Alright, now you’ve got me excited.  After landing the draft’s premier safety and #2 back, filling huge needs, the Bucs dealt back into the 2^nd round and addressed their greatest remaining need by drafting WLB Lavonte David with the 58^th overall pick.  To make the move, the Bucs surrendered their 3^rd and 4^th round selections; another inexpensive trade pulled off by the Bucs.  I was very pleased that they did not surrender any future picks in the process. 

The Bucs linebackers were awful last year.  I realize that Mason Foster was a rookie, but he looked absolutely overmatched far too often in the middle.  I still believe he’s best suited to play outside, but given the insane contract given to Quincy Black last year and the team’s lack of attention to the position in free agency, Foster’s likely spot appears to be MLB once again.  Geno Hayes’ play peaked long ago, and he couldn’t hold onto the starting WLB job.  The Bucs won’t lose any sleep over him joining the Bears, with or without David. 

I had David listed as their R2 pick in my mock, and the Bucs were able to get him 22 picks later than their original R2 draft spot.  David’s selection made the Bucs 3 for 3 in adding instant impact players.  He should step in as the WLB starter day one and give the Bucs a big upgrade at the position.  Instincts, physicality, and tackling technique are three of David’s better traits and were areas in which Hayes sorely lacked. 

(From Pewter Report)

“Guys that love the game, and everybody says they love it, but guys that live it – this guy (David) lives it,” Schiano said. “You have to kick him out of the facility, he trains, he’s all about football – those guys are generally – I’ve never had one that wasn’t tough. That’s so important to them so they’re going to do whatever it takes to win that football game. That’s what I mean when you talk about these three guys (Mark Barron, Doug Martin and David).”

Pick Grade – 9 out of 9

Bravo Buccaneers!  David’s a solid upgrade to a weak linebacker unit and fits Coach Schiano’s description of Buccaneer men.  

After taking two rounds off, the Bucs went back to the linebacker well, selecting the versatile Najee Goode from West Virginia.  Goode not only gave the Mountaineers a huge boost by successfully manning multiple positions.  He also raised his draft stock in the process.

Goode may already be the stoutest linebacker on the roster; a non-hesitant force against the run.  He’s more of a hitter than a tackler at this point, but given his reputation as a hard working leader at the collegiate level, I’m sure dedication to improving his technique as a professional won’t be an issue. 

I see him as a MLB, SLB, and special teams player for the Bucs, and there’s plenty of room for a guy like that on this defense.  Goode is a guy with a lot of confidence, and if his ceiling is a slightly better Adam Hayward, he was well worth a 5^th round pick.

Pick Grade – 4.75 out of 6

Nothing against Goode, but I would have taken Zebrie Sanders or one of the remaining corners (Josh Norman, Ryan Steed, Asa Jackson) with this pick.  I’d have a hard time passing up a versatile lineman with Sanders’ potential this late in the draft.    

Here’s the guy that might intrigue me the most from this Buccaneer draft class.  I mentioned Keith Tandy on BucsChat.com prior to the start of draft day two as my top remaining free safety prospect.  Yes, Tandy was a corner at West Virginia, but knowing a little more about what the Bucs plan on doing in the secondary, I really think his skill set would translate well at free safety. 

He’s a tough SOB with a proven ability to get to the football whether it be via the ground or air.  I like him moving forward and pursing the football more than I do watching him in coverage.  The Bucs apparently intend to start him out at corner, and with the Bucs now going public about moving Ronde Barber to safety, Tandy might have a shot at landing that nickel job. 

Tandy exhibits similarities to Barber, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Bucs have him shadowing the veteran quite regularly this season.  On a “cool” note, it’s worth mentioning that not only were Tandy and previous pick Goode teammates at West Virginia, they were roommates as well. 

Pick Grade – 5 out of 5

At worst, he’s an improvement over EJ Biggers and Myron Lewis at corner.  At best, he’s the team’s free safety of the future. 

Obviously the new coaching staff wasn’t happy with what it had at the RB position.  While this pick took me by surprise, it has the potential to be the strongest 7^th round picks this team’s made in years. Smith is mostly an unknown due to playing behind Robert Turbin at Utah State, but what is known is that he possesses speed that did not previously exist on the Buccaneer roster. 

Smith has a track background and is a guy who can take it to the house given the narrowest of openings.  Working in his favor is the fact that he’s a solidly compact 5-8, 207 and runs much stronger than most backs his size.  He has a lot of potential as a 3^rd down back, both as a runner and receiver.  I expect the Buccaneers to try and exploit defensive mismatches with Smith in the passing game because you don’t keep that speed on the bench. 

Pick Grade – 3.75 out of 4

There were a couple other players I would have preferred, but given what’s known about this guy, it’s hard not to love the pick.  Don’t be surprised if he’s eventually stealing Sucker Punch’s snaps. 

I won’t spend much time on this pick given that I know nothing about the guy.  Dunsmore appears to be an H-back type who won’t address the need for a blocking tight end.  He’s quick and has hands, so maybe he’ll develop as an intermediate weapon.

Pick Grade – 2 out of 4

There were several corners that went undrafted that I would have chosen in this spot.

Undrafted Free Agents

In addition to the huge haul in the draft, the Bucs may have landed a couple of free agent gems.  The two that stand out most are Leonard Johnson and Cody Johnson. 

Leonard was a CB from Iowa State who surprisingly went unselected.  His lack of timed speed was his biggest knock, but I’ll gladly take the guy who gave Justin Blackmon his biggest headache of the year.  He should have a good chance of making the team. 

Cody was brought in at FB and has only Eric Lorig blocking his spot atop the depth chart.  Cody needs to work on his lead blocking technique, but he’s an established ball carrier who could be a short yardage and red zone asset. 

Offensive linemen Bradley Sowell (Mississippi) and Desmond Wynn (Rutgers) are two guys who could see the practice squad if they don’t sneak onto the back end of the roster. 

Overall Grade = A

(44.50 / 48 = 93%)

Their first three picks are instant starters, and the next three should see significant snaps.  If the undrafted Johnsons make the roster, the Bucs would have done a tremendous job of addressing their weaknesses this offseason.  The last few months have gone about as well as any Bucs fan could have hoped for.  How it translates on the field is yet to be seen, but in a division that I believe is wide open this year, the Bucs have put themselves in position to make some noise.