2012 NFL Predictions - NFC East

1) New York Giants

Key Gets – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech), Rueben Randle (WR, LSU), Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech), Martellus Bennett (TE, Cowboys)

Key Gones – Brandon Jacobs (RB, 49ers), Mario Manningham (WR, 49ers), Aaron Ross (CB, Jaguars)

Key Games – wk1 v. Cowboys, wk4 @ Eagles, wk6 @ 49ers, wk7 v. Redskins, wk8 @ Cowboys, wk9 v. Steelers, wk12 v. Packers, wk 13 @ Redskins, wk14 v. Saints, wk15 @ Falcons, wk16 @ Ravens, wk17 v. Eagles

The Giants were my surprise team for last year’s playoffs, and surprise they did.  Entering week 17 of last year the Giants needed a win against the Cowboys just to make the playoffs.  They got that one and four more to claim their second Super Bowl title in five seasons.  You a believer yet?

Peyton who?  As much talk as big brother gets, Eli has him in championships 2-1, and it’s not like Eli pulled a Dilfer in those contests.  The Giants were champs because of Eli, not in spite of him.  I truly believe Eli is in the league’s elite group of passers, settling in behind Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.  Yes, he’s still prone to the occasional mental lapse, but he looks so comfortable and confident out there.  Dare I say the best is yet to come for Mr. Manning.  It’s not like he’s leaning on an unstoppable run game.  No one ran for less yards per game last year than the Giants.  Brandon Jacobs is no longer the dominant bruising back, and Ahmad Bradshaw can’t shake the injury bug.  David Wilson was added this offseason with the last pick in the draft’s first round.  While Bradshaw is the unquestioned starter I expect Wilson to eat into his carries more and more as the year progresses.  Welcome to the NFL Victor Cruz.  The man once labeled a preseason darling exploded last season for a team high 82 catches, 1,536 yards receiving, and 9 TDs.  He can dance too.  He’ll again line up across from Hakeem Nicks, the athletic receiver with hands the size of jai alai cestas.  They form one of the league’s best receiving duos, and rather than feel the loss of Mario Manningham, I believe they’ll consume most of the tosses that went his way.  I’m a fan of rookie Rueben Randle too and look for him to make an impact in his first year.  Everyone has injuries in this league, but the Giants have been shuffling around offensive linemen for the last couple of seasons.  David Diehl will move over to right tackle if/when Will Beatty gets over his back issues, strengthening the ends of the line.  Right guard Chris Snee is the best of the interior linemen. 

Whenever you talk about the Giants defense, you’ve got to start with the studs up front, and who else better to start with than Jason Pierre-Paul.  The pass rusher from USF catapulted himself into the league’s elite pass rusher fraternity with a whopping 16.5 sacks and a Pro Bowl selection.  It’s scary to think how this guy is just scratching the surface on his potential.  Justin Tuck had his lowest sack total since 2006 with injuries and personal issues contributing to the decrease in production.  I think he turns it around.  Then there’s Osi Umenyiora.  Though he’s seemingly always butting heads with management about a contract extension, he tallied nine sacks in nine games.  I believe Linval Joseph is a nice upgrade over Barry Cofield at nose tackle, but they really need Marvin Austin to get over his back injury and onto the football field.  Mathias Kiwanuka, recipient of a new contract this offseason, fits perfectly with this defense.  He lines up at linebacker, end, and tackle based on down and distance.  Chase Blackburn starts in the middle, but he’ll have plenty of competition from Keith Rivers, Mark Herzlich, and Greg Jones.  My money is on Herzlich earning the job at some point.  Rivers and Jones are talented, versatile reserves.  Corey Webster is one of the best cover men in the business despite not getting the PR of guys like Nnamdi Asomugha and Darrelle Revis.  The Giants re-signed Terrell Thomas this offseason, but he suffered a knee injury and his forecast for the opener is cloudy.  Last year’s #1 draft pick Prince Amukamara will step in during Thomas’ absence.  Then there’s the Hurricane safety duo.  There may not be a better professional centerfielder than Kenny Phillips.  The guy tracks the ball tremendously and is strong against the run.  Antrel Rolle led the team in tackles and has found a home at safety for the Giants.

The run game is a bit of a question mark as is the offensive line, but this is a team that plays with a ton of confidence and composure.  As always, the division figures to be tough, and I don’t think anyone else in the group did enough to knock the Giants from their pedestal. 

Team MVP – Eli Manning

Breakout Player – David Wilson

Disappointment – Ahmad Bradshaw

2) Philadelphia Eagles

Key Gets – Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State), Mychal Kendricks (LB, California), Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall), Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia), OJ Atogwe (S, Redskins)

Key Gones – Ronnie Brown (RB, Chargers), Jamaal Jackson (C, FA), Vince Young (QB, Bills)

Key Games – wk2 v. Ravens, wk4 v. Giants, wk5 @ Steelers, wk6 v. Lions, wk8 v. Falcons, wk9 @ Saints, wk10 v. Cowboys, wk 11 @ Redskins, wk13 @ Cowboys, wk16 v. Redskins, wk17 @ Giants

Was there a more disappointing team last year than the Eagles?  Even before Vince Young’s “dream team” comment, much was expected of this bunch, especially after acquiring defenders Nnamdi Asomugha, Jason Babin, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to go with a lethal offense.  Instead, 2011 was a nightmare.  They started 1-4 and needed a four game winning streak at the end of the season just to finish 8-8.  They didn’t blow the whole thing up this offseason, but another season of disappointment won’t be tolerated. 

Michael Vick again failed to play an entire sixteen game schedule, and he’s already getting beat up this preseason.  If you get hit as often as Vick has, you’re liable to sustain a few injuries.  How comfortable are they in Mike Kafka and Nick Foles?  There’s a good chance at least one of them makes at least one start this season.  LeSean McCoy is easily the best player on a talent-laden offense.  He totaled over 1,600 yards from scrimmage for the second year in a row and scored a league high 17 rushing TDs.  The offense runs through McCoy.  At receiver, will DeSean Jackson be more willing to go over the middle of the field and take hits now that he got his big contract?  I still think Jeremy Maclin is the best receiver in the group and looks to be finally healthy.  I look for a huge year from him.  Brent Celek has been a productive outlet for Vick, but he’s dealing with a knee injury this preseason.  Vick isn’t taking hits because he’s playing behind a shoddy line.  This group has talent.  Stud left tackle Jason Peters is out for the year after tearing his Achilles twice this offseason; huge blow to the offensive line.  Demetress Bell was signed in free agency to be his replacement, but King Dunlap has taken the job and run with it.  Evan Mathis should be considered among the elite offensive guards in the league.  Philadelphia wisely re-signed him this offseason and will plug him in next to young, promising center Jason Kelce.  Danny Watkins and Todd Herremans form a solid combination on the right side.

The Eagles are one team that can give the Giants a run for their money when it comes to talent along the defensive line.  Jason Babin finished third in the league with 18 sacks, showing that his 12.5 sacks from 2010 was no fluke.  The guy absolutely thrives with Jim Washburn as his coach.  You know you’re good when you can relegate Trent Cole to the “other” pass rusher.  Cole added 11 of his own giving the Eagles two huge forces coming off the edge in their Wide Nine defense.  Cullen Jenkins lines up inside next to rookie tackle Fletcher Cox.  The Packers still miss Jenkins who finished third on the Eagles in sacks with 5.5.  Cox was the most talented defensive tackle in this year’s draft in my opinion and should do a lot of damage early on with those other three drawing so much attention.  DeMeco Ryans came over from Houston this offseason and should see his game improve once again playing back in a 4-3 scheme.  Rookie Mychal Kendricks is set to start on the strong side.  Look for him to make an impact.  The secondary is a little less crowded with Asante Samuel being shipped off to Atlanta, but there’s still plenty of talent remaining in Asomugha and DRC.  There are a couple of big changes here.  First, the Eagles will be employing more press-man coverage which should really benefit both Asomugha and DRC.  Second, with Samuel gone, DRC can now go back to playing the boundary where he’s better off.  Brandon Boykin could be one of the bigger steals in this year’s draft.  A fourth round pick, Boykin is already making a name for himself on both defense and special teams.  Like Maclin, free safety Nate Allen is finally healthy again and should provide yet another boost to the secondary.

I think they’re better this year, but Vick’s stability is too big of a question for me.  For better or worse this team should be one of the league’s top stories this season.

Team MVP – LeSean McCoy

Breakout Player – Fletcher Cox

Disappointment – Michael Vick

3) Dallas Cowboys

Key Gets – Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU), Brandon Carr (CB, Chiefs), Dan Connor (LB, Panthers), Kyle Orton (QB, Chiefs), Tyrone Crawford (DE, Boise State)

Key Gones – Laurent Robinson (WR, Jaguars), Keith Brooking (LB, FA), Terence Newman (CB, Bengals), Martellus Bennett (TE, Giants)

Key Games – wk1 @ Giants, wk4 v. Bears, wk6 @ Ravens, wk8 v. Giants, wk9 @ Falcons, wk10 @ Eagles, wk12 v. Redskins, wk13 v. Eagles, wk15 v. Steelers, wk16 v. Saints, wk17 @ Redskins

Jason Garrett’s first full year as head coach was a lot better than the 2010 debacle, but losing four of their last five games had to leave a bad taste in his mouth.  Only three of Dallas’ eight losses were by a touchdown or more, but they need to win more of those close games if they want to make it back to the playoffs after a two year absence. 

Tony Romo can’t get any love.  Maybe it’s just me, but his on field failures seem to be spotlighted more than any other QB in the league.  I guess it’s a Dallas thing.  I don’t think he’s among the league’s elite at his position, but I’d put him in the Matt group – Stafford, Schaub, and Ryan.  This year I see him being the same old Romo – some good, some bad, still better than most.  At this point he’s a lot like Eli Manning was before the Super Bowls.  DeMarco Murray was the Cowboys’ breakout player of the year in 2011.  They started the season with a trio of Murray, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice, but when Jones went down with an injury, Murray took the job and ran away with it.  Only a late season foot injury kept him on the sidelines.  He’s healthy this preseason and is the unquestioned bell cow of the running game.  Dez Bryant is one of the most talented receivers in football, but he’s an idiot.  He finished second on the team last year in receptions and should rise to the top of the list this year.  Miles Austin is a hamstring injury waiting to happen, so while the departure of Laurent Robinson may mean more targets for Bryant and Austin, their lack of depth may be exposed.  Things could get worse if Romo’s top target, Jason Witten, suffers any further issues with a spleen injury that has sidelined him this preseason.  Moving Tyron Smith to the left side and Doug Free to the right improves an already solid set of bookends.  Smith seems set to stay on the blind side for the next decade.  Their problem is the interior of the offensive line. 

The addition of Rob Ryan didn’t exactly lead to an immediate turnaround on defense.  It’s not all bad though.  They’re really solid in the pass rushing department with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer on the outside.  Ware continues to be one of the league’s elite pass rushers year in and year out while Spencer seems to always be on the precipice of joining the league’s upper echelon.  Victor Butler is coming on and provides them with quality pass rushing depth.  Jason Hatcher is one of the better unknown 3-4 ends.  He’s just really strong and hard to move.  It seems they continue to talk about moving Jay Ratliff to end every year, but every year he remains at NT.  He’s not the biggest noseman in the league, but the guy continues to draw double teams and be a force on the defensive line.  Dallas’ secondary has been under fire for several seasons, and the Cowboys have cleaned house.  They made two huge additions this offseason by signing veteran Brandon Carr in free agency and taking Morris Claiborne with the sixth pick in the draft.   There was also some addition by subtraction.  Terence Newman is now in Cincinnati, and Michael Jenkins has been relegated to third on the depth chart.  Dallas absolutely had to get better in this area with Philadelphia and New York having such strong passing games.  I’m still a Barry Church fan and like seeing that he’s got the edge on the starting strong safety spot.  Gerald Sensabaugh is kind of a jack of all trades, master of none at free safety. 

It won’t be Romo’s fault if these guys don’t make the playoffs.  The primary focus factors for me are Murray’s health maintenance, Bryant’s maturity, and improved secondary play.  New York and Philadelphia are too talented to allow Dallas to back into the playoffs.  They must get better.

Team MVP – Demarco Murray

Breakout Player – Tyron Smith

Disappointment – Miles Austin

4) Washington Redskins

Key Gets – Pierre Garcon (WR, Colts), Cedric Griffin (CB, Vikings), Josh Morgan (WR, 49ers), Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor), Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)

Key Gones – OJ Atogwe (S, Eagles), LaRon Landry (S, Jets), Rocky McIntosh (LB, Rams)

Key Games – wk1 @ Saints, wk2 @ Rams, wk5 v. Falcons, wk7 @ Giants, wk8 @ Steelers, wk11 v. Eagles, wk12 @ Cowboys, wk13 v. Giants, wk16 @ Eagles, wk17 v. Cowboys

A 15-33 record over the last three seasons isn’t anything to brag about.  Jim Zorn was laughed out of town, but it’s not like the Shanahans have done much better.  The team is only 11-21 over the last two seasons, which included the horribly failed Donovan McNabb era and forgettable performances by Rex Grossman and John Beck.  Have they finally found the guy to turn this thing around?

Washington moved up in the draft to take Robert Griffin III after the Colts committed to Andrew Luck.  In RGIII the Skins are getting one of the more gifted athletes to play professional football; someone who is just scratching the surface of his potential as both a playmaker and leader.  It’s going to take some time for him to be comfortable and consistent at this level, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if he has a better rookie year than Luck.  A Mike Shanahan run game is full of uncertainty?  Go figure.  Tim Hightower isn’t exactly having an Adrian Peterson-like recovery from his ACL injury, and Roy Helu is dealing with soreness in both Achilles.  Is Evan Royster really a reliable professional runner?  I think Fred Davis is in perfect position to have a really huge season.  Chris Cooley is no threat at all to his snaps, and rookie QBs generally grow very fond of their tight ends very fast.  RGIII won’t have to stare down Davis thanks to an aggressive offseason that saw the Redskins add two receivers to their arsenal.  With Pierre Garcon brought in to the be the #1 receiver, Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss settle into #2 and slot duties respectively.  That puts the underrated Josh Morgan, another free agency acquisition, in the #4 spot.  Davis is the best pass catcher in this bunch, but the wideouts are talented enough to keep defenses honest.  The offensive line is lacking health and continuity much more than it is lacking talent.  Trent Williams and Jammal Brown are a formidable tackle combination when healthy and not high, and Kory Lichtensteiger is a quality interior lineman when his knee is right.  RGIII’s athleticism will help him make a lot of plays, but any improvement this line can make will go a long way in helping the rookie’s development.  

Coming out of their bye, Washington suffered through a six game losing streak which pretty much sealed their season.  They won only two more games the rest of the year.  During that stretch the Redskins surrendered more than 25 points in half of their contests.  That’s not a recipe for success.  The top talent on this side of the ball resides at the position of outside linebacker.  Brian Orakpo has been a consistent pass rushing threat since entering the league in ’09.  He didn’t have much help in 2010 after Andre Carter moved on, but last year, 1^st round pick Ryan Kerrigan proved to be well worth the draft’s 16^th over selection.  Kerrigan’s rookie year was overshadowed by the numbers put up by Von Miller and Aldon Smith, but Kerrigan acclimated himself to the professional game just fine.  London Fletcher will keep playing until he’s 106.  Pencil him in for 90+ tackles every year.  Perry Riley looks like a fixture on the inside as well.  Stephen Bowen is their best defensive lineman.  He provides another source of sacks and holds his own against the run.  Adam Carriker and Barry Cofield are the weak spots up front.  I think they’ll continue to have problems in the secondary.  DeAngelo Hall will be playing some free safety this season, but I still think he’s one of the more overrated defensive backs in the game.  Opposite him, Josh Wilson needs to continue taking steps forward and show more of the potential he exhibited in Baltimore.  Veteran Cedric Griffin and his busted knees aren’t an improvement.  I think strong safety Brandon Meriweather has played his best football, and Tanard Jackson couldn’t even make it to the regular season before failing his 500^th drug test. 

They’ll be really entertaining to watch on offense, but I think they’re extremely vulnerable to the big play on defense.  Defending Eli, Vick, and Romo twice each a season with that secondary should lead to a lot more 25+ point outings. 

Team MVP – Robert Griffin III

Breakout Player – Leonard Hankerson

Disappointment – DeAngelo Hall

Division MVP – LeSean McCoy

Division Breakout Player – David Wilson

Division Disappointment – Miles Austin

2012 NFL Predictions - AFC West

1) Kansas City Chiefs

Key Gets – Peyton Hillis (RB, Browns), Kevin Boss (TE, Raiders), Dontari Poe (NT, Memphis), Jeff Allen (T, Illinois)

Key Gones – Brandon Carr (CB, Cowboys), Kyle Orton (QB, Cowboys)

Key Games – wk1 v. Falcons, wk2 @ Bills, wk3 @ Saints, wk4 v. Chargers, wk5 v. Ravens, wk8 v. Raiders, wk9 @ Chargers, wk10 @ Steelers, wk12 v. Broncos, wk15 @ Raiders, wk17 @ Broncos

Jamaal Charles’ season ended after twelve carries.  On his second tote in week two against the Lions, Charles went down with an ACL injury and missed the rest of the year.  Still, they managed to get seven wins with Thomas Jones starting eight games and Jackie battle starting four.  Charles is back and good to go, and the running game output should increase substantially.  I like Peyton Hillis as an insurance plan and as a pounder to wear on a defense after they chase Charles all over the field.  It doesn’t hurt that they’ll be running behind one of the game’s best set of blockers.  Branden Albert is among the league’s elite left tackles, and right tackle Eric Winston was a good get from the Texans and is a sizable upgrade over Barry Richardson.  Former Nole Rodney Hudson replaces Casey Wiegmann at center and will have one of the game’s most underrated guards to his right in Jos Asamoah.  Watch and see how many holes that guy opens up for Charles this year.  Dwayne Bowe is a stud who’d get a lot more love on a team with a real QB.  In a move that didn’t make a ton of sense to me, he sat out all of training camp after being tagged as the team’s franchise player.  Matt Cassel’s goal is to not lose football games, and when you’ve got that kind of QB it’s going to limit your offense’s ability to put up points on demand.  He’s the biggest question mark on this side of the football, and that’s not a good thing seeing as how he’s the QB. 

Former LSU Tigers Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson have come under harsh criticism for being draft busts; top five picks with paltry resumes.  They may not put up the flashy numbers that get you on the highlight shows, but both Dorsey and Jackson have turned into two terrific two-gap run defending ends.  They added another first round pick to the line this year in massive NT Dontari Poe which should mean good things for pass rushers like Tamba Hali and Justin Houston.  Hali had his second straight double digit sack season in ’11, but he’ll have to improve upon those numbers in just fifteen games due to his one game suspension for getting high.  Houston didn’t tally his first takedown until week 11, but he got three in that contest and another 2.5 more over the next four games.  I was a huge fan of Houston’s when he entered last year’s draft, and I look for him to take a big step forward this year as a key piece of this developing defense.   Derrick Johnson built upon an impressive 2010 season making the Pro Bowl last year after setting the team’s franchise record in tackles.  Having a young, consistent force like him in the middle of your defense is priceless.  The secondary took a hit with Brandon Carr’s free agent exodus, but in my opinion Brandon Flowers was the better Chiefs cover man.  Flowers is one of the best all-round corners in the game and with his new contract is a definite mainstay of this defense.  Stanford Routt was signed to replace Carr, and while Routt has been susceptible to giving up the big play, he’s gives the Chiefs a proven veteran across from Flowers.  The defense’s biggest boost will come in the form of a healthy Eric Berry.  The dynamite safety missed nearly all of last year after tearing his ACL in week 1, but look for him to return to the game changing force he proved himself to be as a rookie. His play will be huge.

In Charles and Berry the Chiefs are getting gamebreakers back on both sides of the ball.  That’s like two huge free agent signings. They’re one of the few teams in the league that looks like they can make strong strides in every area of the team.  Unfortunately, the biggest question is the guy who has his hands on the ball most.  If Cassel gets hot, these guys can reel off a serious win streak.  I realize I’m going out on a limb, but everyone else seems to have already handed this division to the Broncos. 

Team MVP – Jamaal Charles

Breakout Player – Justin Houston

Disappointment – Stanford Routt

2) Denver Broncos

Key Gets – Peyton Manning (QB, Colts), Andre Caldwell (WR, Bengals), Joel Dreessen (TE, Texans), Tracy Porter (CB, Saints), Derek Wolfe (DT, Cincinnati), Brock Osewiler (QB, Arizona State), Ronnie Hillman (RB, San Diego State)

Key Gones – Brodrick Bunkley (DT, Saints), Eddie Royal (WR, Chargers)

Key Games – wk1 v. Steelers, wk2 @ Falcons, wk3 v. Texans, wk4 v. Raiders, wk5 @ Patriots, wk6 @ Chargers, wk8 v. Saints, wk11 v. Chargers, wk12 @ Chiefs, wk14 @ Raiders, wk15 @ Ravens, wk17 v. Chiefs

What an “eventful” first year for John Fox in Denver.  The team started out 1-4 under Kyle Orton, and then Fox handed over the offense (a kid’s menu version) to Baby Jesus.  The team went 7-4 the rest of the way and won a memorable playoff game against the Steelers.  As good as the record was, anyone not drinking the Kool Aid will tell you that there was probably some divine intervention going on in some of those victories.  John Elway bit his tongue, and John Fox scaled down the offense as the sideshow rolled across the country.  But 2012 brings a new, welcomed circus to town. 

Out is Timmy, and in is one of the best players to ever line up behind center.  Peyton Manning takes over the Broncos offense after sitting out last season and undergoing four surgical procedures on his neck.  Fans should know to never underestimate Manning, but it would be a bit unrealistic to expect him to pick right up where he left off in 2010.  Still he’s an unquestioned upgrade at the position and has settled nicely in the city Elway built.  In Denver, Manning has two very talented young receivers at his disposal.  Demaryius Thomas showcased his elite athleticism catching passes in a basic high school offense, and Eric Decker could be an exceptional possession receiver for Peyton.  Jacob Tamme also made the jump from Indy and will likely be Manning’s favorite target in the middle of the field.  Last year Willis McGahee showed he still has quite a bit left in the tank.  Grinding out his first 1,000 yard season since 2007, McGahee proved to be the lead runner Fox was seeking.  His role should change a bit given the change in offensive style, but he’s proven to still be a capable starter.  The offensive line likely won’t be featured in any instructional videos, but Manning has played quite well behind a sieve-like line in the past.  Left tackle Ryan Clady is easily the class of the group.  I worry though about the three men in the middle and their ability to keep Manning upright. 

Last year’s #2 overall pick, Von Miller, didn’t waste any time in making a name for himself in the NFL.  The rookie tallied 11.5 sacks, made the Pro Bowl, and was a huge reason the Broncos were able to make the playoffs with an anemic offense.  DJ Williams has dumbassed himself into missing most of this season, so Wesley Woodyard will likely be the primary WLB.  They retained Joe Mays at MLB, but I’m surprised they’ve moved Nate Irving outside to be Miller’s backup.  Elvis Dumervil had to appreciate finally getting some help in the pass rush department with Miller’s big year.  The veteran added 9.5 sacks of his own in his return to the field after missing all of 2010 with a torn pectoral muscle.  Teams must now scheme to stop two explosive pass rushers, and in rookie defensive lineman Derek Wolfe they might have another early impact player.  Wolfe is pushing draft bust Robert Ayers for the other defensive end spot.  Ayers only got his old job back because Jason Hunter will mist most of the year with a torn triceps.  I think they’re going to miss run stopper Brodrick Bunkley in the middle.  Champ Bailey may be 34 years young, but he’s still better than most of the guys who play the position.  I could see him taking the Charles Woodson path eventually, playing some safety.  They get an upgrade across from him with Tracy Porter signed to replace Andre Goodman.  They have little to no depth though which will be worth monitoring throughout the year.  Also worth watching will be how Mike Adams does at strong safety replacing the retired Brian Dawkins. 

Is it reasonable to expect Peyton Manning to make it through a sixteen game season at this point?  More importantly, how long will it take him to get back into the flow of things and able to get the offense working as a cohesive unit?  I think they’ll push for a return to the postseason, but a slow start is possible. 

Team MVP – Peyton Manning

Breakout Player – Demaryius Thomas

Disappointment – Von Miller (guessing the sack count drops significantly)

3) San Diego Chargers

Key Gets –Jarret Johnson (LB, Ravens), Melvin Ingram (LB, South Carolina), Robert Meachem (WR, Saints), Eddie Royal (WR, Broncos), Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut), Ronnie Brown (RB, Eagles), Brandon Taylor (S, LSU)

Key Gones – Vincent Jackson (WR, Bucs), Mike Tolbert (RB, Panthers), Marcus McNeill (T, FA)

Key Games – wk1 @ Raiders, wk3 v. Falcons, wk4 @ Chiefs, wk5 @ Saints, wk6 v. Broncos, wk9 v. Chiefs, wk11 @ Broncos, wk12 v. Ravens, wk14 @ Steelers, wk16 @ Jets, wk17 v. Raiders

If you take out the span of games from October 23 to November 27 the Chargers were 8-2 last year.  Pretty good huh?  Too bad they went 0-6 in that October-November stretch to finish out of the playoffs for the second year in a row. 

Phillip Rivers had his worst season in years, completing less than 63% of his passes for the first time since 2007 and throwing a career high 20 INTs.  He’s not looking much better this preseason, and I think it’s definitely worth starting to worry about.  Speaking of worrying, Ryan Mathews is giving Charger fans plenty of reason to do so.  There were already concerns about his ability handle a full load, and then he breaks his collarbone in the preseason.  This year there’s no Mike Tolbert to turn to.  Mathews should be back by week 3, but will he stay healthy?  Antonio Gates has reportedly returned to full health and looks better than he has in years.  He was likely to be Rivers’ top target anyways, but Vincent Jackson leaving for Tampa plays in his favor as well.  Robert Meachem was signed to replace Jackson, but I’m not sold yet.  He’s never truly broken out, even in the explosive Saints’ offense.  Will it happen now?  They already had a huge loss with Vincent Brown suffering a fractured ankle, leaving his season in doubt.  They’d like to lean on free agent Eddie Royal, but he’s idled with a groin injury.  They’ve got two serviceable players on their offensive line – center Nick Hardwick and left tackle Jared Gaiter.  Everyone else is going to be making Rivers run for his life.  The retirement of left guard Kris Dielman is a big deal.  This weakness should be apparent. 

Talk about a turnabout.  In Ron Rivera’s final year as Bolts’ defensive coordinator, they were the #1 ranked overall team defense.  Last year they plummeted to one of the worst in the league; really weak defending the pass and getting after the passer.  They’re sturdy up front with Corey Liuget, Antonio Garay, and Vaughn Martin.  Liuget is easily the most talented of the bunch and should make a bigger impact in year two.  They’re starting to develop depth as well.  Aubrayo Franklin joins Cam Thomas behind Garay, and Kendall Reyes was drafted as a rotational end and has looked solid this preseason.  Fellow draft pick Melvin Ingram joins free agent addition Jarret Johnson at linebacker making a really strong combination across from the duo of Shaun Phillips and Antwan Barnes.  They’re a little more vulnerable on the inside with the veteran Takeo Spikes and Donald Butler.  On to the real problem.  Cornerback Quentin Jammer started showing his age last year, and Antoine Cason has been ordinary on the other side when able to keep his job away from the equally ordinary Marcus Gilchrist.  Eric Weddle is the only playmaker on the back end of the defense, and they’re going to have to lean on him more than ever. 

I had these guys in third prior to Ryan Mathews’ injury.  They haven’t had a sub .500 season since 2003, but I think that’s where they’re headed this year.  If they do indeed end up missing the playoffs for the third season in a row, I think the Norv Turner era will have met its end. 

Team MVP – Antonio Gates

Breakout Player – Corey Liuget

Disappointment – Robert Meachem

4) Oakland Raiders

Key Get – Ron Bartell (CB, Rams)

Key Gones – Michael Bush (RB, Bears), Kamerion Wimbley (LB, Titans), Jason Campbell (QB, Bears), Kevin Boss (TE, Chiefs), Stanford Routt (CB, Chiefs)

Key Games – wk1 v. Chargers, wk3 v. Steelers, wk4 @ Broncos, wk6 @ Falcons, wk8 @ Chiefs, wk10 @ Ravens, wk11 v. Saints, wk14 v. Broncos, wk15 v. Chiefs, wk17 @ Chargers

Not a lot went well for Oakland last year.  Raider nation was hit hard in October when the heart and soul of the organization, Al Davis died in October.  The Hue Jackson experiment was deemed a failure, and there was an serious overhaul from the top down, starting in the front office.  Will it pay off, and if so, how soon?

Was he really worth it?  Carson Palmer escaped Cincinnati, and it has cost the Raiders Dre Kirkpatrick…so far.  For a pick that became Kirkpatrick and next year’s 2^nd rounder the Raiders received 13 TDs, 16 INTs, and about a 2 sack average in 9 games.  Is he really supposed to get any better this year?  He was showing signs of decline a few years ago in Cincinnati.  Injuries have commonplace with Darren McFadden, and last year was no different.  McFadden got off to a hot start last year, but went down with a serious foot injury and ended up missing more than half the season.  Michael Bush shined so well in his place that he landed a nice deal with the Bears.  Will Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones be able to step up as Bush has if/when McFadden goes down again?  Denarius Moore is one of the most exciting young offensive players in the game.  He had more than his share of highlight reel plays last season and is going to be counted on a lot more this season.  Darrius Heyward-Bey broke out last year with career highs off the board.  They’ll need him to continue his development as they have no depth behind him and Moore.  New OC Greg Knapp is implementing a zone blocking system, and he’s always been a run-heavy guy.  Do they have enough horses up front?  Left tackle Jared Veldheer had a much better sophomore campaign, but right tackle Khalif Barnes should be an obvious weakness.  Stefen Wisniewski should be better off at center this year, moving over from left guard.  Right guard Mike Brisiel comes with zone scheme experience, as does left guard Cooper Carlisle.  The difference is Cooper has six years on Briesel and really shouldn’t be starting. 

Utterly disappointed.  That’s how I feel when I think about Rolando McClain.  The guy who was a leader at Alabama and a core of a developing Raider defense was handed a 180 day jail sentence for doing his best Aqib Talib impression.  Who knows what his future holds, but it certainly won’t be as bright as it could have been.  Kamerion Wimbley was the team’s best linebacker last year, and he’s now in Tennessee.  Quinton Groves stunk at the other outside spot and was replaced by Aaron Curry, another linebacker Oakland is about to give up on.  The Raiders were really bad against the run last year, giving up a franchise record and league high 5.1 yards per rush.  That’s bad on the surface, but it gets worse when you look at the names they’ve got up front – Tommy Kelly, Lamarr Houston, Desmond Bryant, John Henderson.  Richard Seymour made the Pro Bowl, so he’s excused.  They didn’t make any additions this offseason, so should the results be expected to change?  The secondary is scary and not in a good way.  Departed free agent Stanford Routt was their best corner, and he got burned like it was his job at times.  Routt is being replaced by Ron Bartell, a guy who’s coming off a major neck injury.  They’re young and inexperienced everywhere else.  That’s not a recipe for success when you’ve got to face Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers twice a year.

I see too many question marks to be optimistic about this team.  How long will McFadden last?  Will Palmer regress more?  How long with McClain remain a free man?

Team MVP – Darren McFadden

Breakout Player – Demarcus Van Dyke

Disappointment – Carson Palmer

Division MVP – Darren McFadden

Division Breakout Player – Demaryius Thomas

Division Disappointment – Carson Palmer

2012 NFL Predictions - AFC South

1) Houston Texans

Key Gets – Whitney Mercilius (DE, Illinois), DeVier Posey (WR, Ohio State)

Key Gones – Mario Williams (LB, Bills), Jason Allen (CB, Bengals), Joel Dreessen (TE, Broncos), Jacoby Jones (WR, Ravens)

Key Games – wk3 @ Broncos, wk5 @ Jets, wk6 v. Packers, wk7 v. Ravens, wk10 @ Bears, wk12 @ Lions, wk14 @ Patriots

2011 saw the Houston Texans finish with the most wins in franchise history (10).  They also reached the postseason for the first time and won their first playoff game.  Things are pointing up right?  Well, a couple of key players missed time with injuries last year, and franchise defender Mario Williams left for Buffalo after six seasons as a Texan.  They’re clearly the class of the AFC South, but no one should hand them the division just yet.

Matt Schaub missed six games with a foot injury last season allowing rookie TJ Yates to get some NFL experience.  Schaub is ready to go this preseason and looks to repeat his ’09 and ’10 seasons where he threw for over 4,300 yards and 23 TDs.  I’m still a big fan and believe he’s as much a key to the offense as any other player.  Arian Foster didn’t match his 2010 breakout season numbers, but 1841 yards from scrimmage ain’t too shabby.  He received a $43.5 million dollar contract this offseason and is entering the prime of his career.  Foster remains the focal point of the offense, so there’s no reason to think he can’t exceed 2010’s 2,220 yards from scrimmage.  His #2, Ben Tate, might be the most valuable backup in the league.  Andre Johnson is their unquestioned go-to receiver, but he’s missed 12 regular season games over the last two years and suffered a minor groin injury this preseason.  The guy is still as dominant as they come when he’s on the field, but he’s no sure thing to do it wire to wire.  Up front the Texans were among the league’s best last year, but they’re fielding two new starters on the right side.  Left tackle Duane Brown and center Chris Myers are reliable veterans, but how the new group gels together will be worth watching given the Texans’ commitment to the ground game. 

The Texans are no longer one of the league’s punching bags on defense, and that will continue with or without Mario Williams.  Antonio Smith has found a home as a 3-4 end, and JJ Watt played like a season veteran during his rookie year, totaling 5.5 sacks and a team high 7 tackles for loss.  The Texans had to love seeing Watt tally 3.5 sacks in the playoffs, showing he can shine when the bright lights do.  Mike backer Brian Cushing is all over the field defensively, finishing far and away as the Texans leading tackler with 114.  I really don’t think they’re going to miss Mario.  Outside backers Connor Barwin and rookie Brooks Reed combined for 17.5 sacks.  Barwin is a tremendously athletic player who busted out in a big way and will continue building upon last year’s performance.  Like Watt, Reed came through in the playoffs as well with 3.5 postseason sacks of his own.  Veteran Bradie James gets the first shot at replacing DeMeco Ryans who was sent to Philadelphia.  Johnathan Joseph is one of the best lockdown corners in the league and proved to be a very wise pickup last offseason.  Kareem Jackson had a better sophomore campaign than his 2010 rookie year but still has a ways to go as a guy who will see plenty of attention opposite Joseph.  I like the back end of the secondary too.  Daniel Manning came to the Texans last offseason, and like Joseph, solidified the secondary.  Glover Quinn, a converted corner, is a hard-nosed playmaker.

It’s hard not to have high expectations for this team.  The defense is clicking, and they have All Pro talent at the skilled positions on offense.  Helping their cause is the league’s 4^th easiest schedule as far as the preseason strength of schedule numbers go.  Anything less than a repeat shot to the division round of the playoffs will be a bitter disappointment. 

Team MVP – Arian Foster

Breakout Player – JJ Watt

Disappointment – Kareem Jackson

2) Tennessee Titans

Key Gets – Kamerion Wimbley (DE, Raiders), Steve Hutchinson (G, Vikings), Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor), Zach Brown (LB, UNC)

Key Gones – Courtland Finnegan (CB, Rams), Jason Jones (DE, Seahawks)

Key Games – wk1 v. Patriots, wk2 @ Chargers, wk3 v. Lions, wk4 @ Texans, wk6 v. Steelers, wk7 @ Bills, wk9 v. Bears, wk13 v. Texans, wk15 v. Jets, wk16 @ Packers

Mike Munchak’s first year as head coach of the Titans saw the team complete its first winning season since 2008.  White the Titans weren’t able to make the playoffs themselves, three of their nine wins came against playoff teams – Baltimore, Denver, and Houston.  Will they be able to narrow the gap and close in on the Texans this year?

I’m sure there are more questions on the offensive side of the football than Munchak would like.  They’re doing everything they can to get Jake Locker to win the QB battle over Matt Hasselbeck, but the second year passer hasn’t exactly lit it up in the preseason.  Chris Johnson still ran for over 1,000 yards last year, but it was an ugly season that started with a holdout and saw him break the 100 yard game mark only four times.  Kenny Britt is one of the game’s most talented receivers, but he’s about to start needing to use his toes in order to count the number of times he’s been arrested during his professional career.  He’s sure to start the season suspended, but no specific punishment has yet to be announced.  Kendall Wright should bring more big play ability to the offense and help make up for the loss of Britt early in the year.  Up front, Michael Roos and David Stewart remain to very solid and unheralded bookends.  It’s in the middle of the offensive line where they had problems, where most of the blame for last year’s stagnant rushing game falls.  Veteran Steve Hutchinson should be a boost at LG, even if he is on the down side of his career. 

It’s not often that a team’s top four tacklers for the season are all defensive backs, but that was the case for the Titans last year.  They should get more production from their linebackers this season.  Will Witherspoon remains at WLB, but Colin McCarthy is now the starting MLB, having taken the job from Barrett Ruud last year, and Akeem Ayers looks to be a solid building block in his second season.  McCarthy will never be the most athletically gifted player on the field, but he always gives everything he has and does a good job of diagnosing the action to put himself in position to make plays.  Ayers is a true three down linebacker who the Titans plan on featuring more as a pass rusher this season.  You don’t get better on defense by losing a cover man like Cortland Finnegan, but the Titans were fairly deep at corner last year.  Alterraun Verner steps into Finnegan’s spot opposite Jason McCourty.  They’re solid deep too with Pro Bowl safety Michael Griffin and Jordan Babineaux.  The defensive line boasts some quality young talent as well, but they’ve got to do a much better job of rushing to the passer.  Backup defensive tackle Karl Klug led the team with 7 sacks.  Derrick Morgan hasn’t developed as expected at end, but he’s still the starter at LE.  Kamerion Wimbley was signed in free agency to help get after the QB from the RE position.   

As an optimist, this could be a really potent offense with the athletic Locker under center, a fresh and focus Johnson toting the rock, and a plethora of receiving weapons in Britt, Wright, Nate Washington, and Jared Cook.  They’re young and talented on defense and should build on last year’s success.  Anything less than a playoff berth will be a disappointment.

Team MVP – Chris Johnson

Breakout Player – Akeem Ayers

Disappointment – Kenny Britt

3) Indianapolis Colts

Key Gets – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford), Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford), Cory Redding (DE, Ravens), Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson), TY Hilton (WR, FIU)

Key Gones – Peyton Manning (QB, Broncos), Pierre Garcon (WR, Redskins), Jeff Saturday (C, Packers), Dallas Clark (TE, Bucs)

Key Games – wk1 @ Bears, wk5 v. Packers, wk6 @ Jets, wk11 @ Patriots, wk12 v. Bills, wk13 @ Lions, wk15 @ Texans, wk17 v. Texans

Talk about a season to forget.  The Colts went 2-14 last year which was the franchise’s worst season in 20 years.  Peyton Manning probably should have won the league’s MVP last year, and he didn’t play in a single game.  It just goes to show how much of a difference that guy made to this team.  Instead, Colts fans had to suffer through watching Curtis Painter, Kerry Collins, and Dan Orlovsky do their best impressions of an NFL QB. 

Things should get turned around in quick order thanks to the drafting of Andrew Luck.  The former Stanford slinger steps into the starting role in Indy and has been nothing but impressive thus far this preseason.  His first pass of the preseason went for a TD, and while, unlike some of the media, I’m not quite ready to send him to Canton, I’m absolutely buying this guy as a winning franchise QB.  They’ll have to rely on Luck’s arm quite a bit to get them wins because the run game doesn’t look any better than last year.  Donald Brown and Delone Carter look to be the backfield leaders, but neither has shown the ability to handle a full load on his own.  Reggie Wayne surprisingly resigned with the Colts, but Pierre Garcon chased the money to Washington DC.  They have big hopes for Austin Collie, and I like him as Lucks’ go-to guy in the intermediate game.  They’re starting fresh at tight end.  Dallas Clark is in Tampa, and Jacob Tamme followed Peyton Manning to Denver.  Taking their places are rookies Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, two terrific collegiate tight ends.  A young QBs favorite friend is a tight end with good hands, so why not give him the two best that the draft had to offer?  It doesn’t hurt that Fleener was Luck’s top target at Stanford.  Unfortunately, they can’t fix everything in one offseason.  Standing between Luck and opposing defenses is arguably the league’s worst offensive line.  Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is the best of the bunch, but they’re starting free agents in three of the other four positions.  Winston Justice was a pretty good add at right tackle, and they could have done worse than Samson Satele in replacing longtime center Jeff Saturday.  These guys have to keep Luck upright, or Colts fans haven’t seen ugly yet.

The defense was just as bad as the offense last year, and they hope moving to a 3-4 defense will help turn things around.  Stalwarts Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are still around, but they’re both (grudgingly) learning new positions.  They’ll be the starting linebackers in this defense.  I really like Pat Angerer, the young leader of this defense, but he’s going to be sidelined to start the season after breaking his foot in their preseason opener.  Veteran Cory Redding follows his former defensive coordinator, Chuck Pagano, to Indy and looks to give them some stability on the defensive line.  I’m not too hopeful for the other starters, Antonio Johnson and Fili Moala.  They need second year player Drake Nevis to make a real push for playing time.  He’s too talented to sit behind Moala.  It’s not pretty in the secondary.  Free safety Antoine Bethea is a tackling machine, but strong safety Tom Zbikowski is more known for his boxing.  The Colts weren’t comfortable with projected starting corners Justin King and Jerraud Powers, so they traded for Vontae Davis.  It’s a great move for the Colts as long as Davis leaves his attitude in Miami. 

The Colts went 3-13 in Peyton Manning’s first year as a pro, so while Colts fans are looking for an instant return to glory, they must remain patient.  I love Luck and his future as a pro, but this isn’t happening overnight.  Baby steps Colts fans, baby steps.

Team MVP – Andrew Luck

Breakout Player – Coby Fleener

Disappointment – Donald Brown

4) Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Gets – Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State), Chad Henne (QB, Dolphins), Laurent Robinson (WR, Cowboys), Aaron Ross (CB, Giants), Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)

Key Gones – None

Key Games – wk2 v. Texans, wk5 v. Bears, wk8 @ Packers, wk9 v. Lions, wk11 @ Texans, wk13 @ Bills, wk14 v. Jets, wk16 v. Patriots

Oomph.  Somehow this team won five games last year.  They’re not terribly talented, and their best player is holding out this preseason for a new contract.  Looking good huh?

I trashed Mark Sanchez and Blaine Gabbert more than any other QBs in the league last season.  Sure Gabbert was a rookie, but he looked like a terribly soft rookie last year.  You can’t teach guts, and this guy often looked like he left his in Missouri.  It’s not easy to consistently lead your team on scoring drives when you’re constantly anticipating pressure.  The coaching staff is talking him up this preseason, but I’ve got to wonder how much of that is truth and how much of it is to help the psyche of their QB.  If/When Maurice Jones-Drew shows up he’ll look to repeat as the league’s rushing leader.  After totaling a whopping 954 carries over the last three seasons, I’d be a bit hesitant too in giving him a new deal.  I’m still a huge Rashad Jennings fan, and I’d love to see him get a chance to be the feature guy.  Justin Blackmon was drafted to be Gabbert’s #1 target, but his professional career started the undesirable way with a DUI and a holdout.  Can they count on him?  Laurent Robinson was brought in after a solid season with the Cowboys, but will he repeat last year’s output in a much weaker offense?  Left tackle Eugene Monroe and center Brad Meester are easily the team’s best offensive linemen.  They should be a ton better with Eben Britton healthy and relegating Guy Whimper back to the bench.  Gabbert should be tossing and tucking a lot less this year. 

Jacksonville was surprisingly one of the league’s better defenses statistically last year.  There isn’t a star among the group, but they played well as a unit.  Paul Posluszny may be as close to a star as they get, and he returns as the anchor at MLB.  SLB Daryl Smith returns for what seems like his 100^th year with the Jags.  Jeremy Mincey tallied a career high 8 sacks last season, and seeing as how the next most productive returning pass rusher had 2.5 sacks, they’re counting on him replicating that this season.  Rookie Andre Branch is locked into the starting RE spot.  Tyson Alualu was that guy with the 2.5 sacks, but the staple of his game is stuffing the run.  The Jags would like to see him get to the passer a bit more, but there’s no griping about his run defense.  Terrence Knighton and his 335 pounds do a solid job of occupying blockers for the guys around him to make plays.  Rashean Mathis is still locked in at one corner spot, and Derek Cox will start opposite him when healthy.  Starting safeties Dwight Lowery and Dawan Landry leave a lot to be desired.

They should be a more consistent and productive team overall this season, but does that necessarily mean they’ll top last season’s five win total?  I’m not optimistic. 

Team MVP – Rashad Jennings

Breakout Player – Justin Blackmon

Disappointment – Jeremy Mincey

Division MVP – Arian Foster

Division Breakout Player – JJ Watt

Division Disappointment – Kenny Britt

2012 NFL Predictions - AFC North

1) Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Gets – David DeCastro (G, Stanford), Mike Adams (T, Ohio State), Sean Spence (LB, Miami)

Key Gones – James Farrior (LB, FA), William Gay (CB, Cardinals), Chris Kemoeatu (G, FA), Bryant McFadden (CB, FA), Aaron Smith (DE, FA)

Key Games – wk1 @ Broncos, wk2 v. Jets, wk5 v. Eagles, wk7 @ Bengals, wk9 @ Giants, wk11 v. Ravens, wk13 @ Ravens, wk14 v. Chargers, wk15 @ Cowboys, wk 16 v. Bengals

The Patriots may have been Super Bowl losers last year, but one could argue that the Steelers had the harder season ending loss.  A team with sights set on another championship took a shot to the gut when Demaryius Thomas took the first play from scrimmage in OT to the house for the game winning score.  If that wasn’t bad enough, their leading rusher, Rashard Mendenhall, tore his ACL during the last regular season game and isn’t exactly making an Adrian Peterson-like recovery.  The Steelers are conceding that he’s going to miss nearly half of the season.  Oh, and did I mention that Mike Wallace is doing his best Dwayne Bowe impression and has yet to sign his one year tender.  Is this team capable of winning the North for the fourth time in six seasons?

One offseason move that could pay off in a big way was the hiring of Todd Haley as OC.  The former Cardinals’ HC will implement an up-tempo passing offense, taking the Steelers away from their run heavy roots, something QB Ben Roethlisberger has been trying to do for a while now.  Look for Roethlisberger to have a big year.  Mike Wallace finally showed up and signed his tender, so Roethlisberger’s favorite heave it threat will be on the field when the season starts.  With or without Wallace’s holdout, Antonio Brown might have become Roethlisberger’s #1 receiver.  The Central Michigan standout busted out in a big way last year with 69 catches but only 2 scores.  I think he’s for real and has a shot of totaling double digits in TDs. Even if the run game is an afterthought, the Steelers have to be leery of their backfield situation.  Starter Rashard Mendenhall is out for a while recovering from his knee injury, and Isaac Redman has limited talents.  The guy who has made a big name for himself this preseason is Jonathan Dwyer.  He’s contributed surprisingly well in the passing game this preseason and looks like he might have a leg up on Redman for starter snaps.  I think the offensive line is finally approaching respectability again.  Willie Colon is thriving at LG, and Maurkice Pouncey is once of the game’s best centers.  Unfortunately projected RG David DeCastro tore up his knee in the preseason and likely will miss the entire season.  Marcus Gilbert looks like a fixture at RT, and they’re hoping rookie Mike Adams is the answer at LT.  I expect this unit to be really strong late in the season. 

You’ve got to think the league’s #1 defense is chomping at the bit to get back on the field and bust some heads after that Denver game.  When you talk about busting heads, you can’t help but think of Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers.  James Harrison keeps getting it done and pairs with LaMarr Woodley to give them arguably the league’s best pair of outside rushers.  Throw in stud ILB Lawrence Timmons and rotational rushers like Jason Worilds and Chris Carter, and that’s a formidable group.  Harrison is dealing with a knee issue this preseason that could turn serious, so that’s definitely worth tracking.  I really like Ziggy Hood up front at one end spot, and Brett Keisel’s beard will try and hold off the more youthful Craig Heyward at the other end spot.  The biggest question in the secondary is still the corner spot opposite Ike Taylor where Keenan Lewis looks to continue his progression as an NFL corner.  Ryan Clark had arguably a career year in 2011, and Troy Polamalu is still one of the game’s more dynamic defenders.  The former Trojan should be the healthiest he’s been in several years.  

I believe the Steelers will be a solid team this year, but their first place projections is also influenced by my thought this will be a down year for the teams of the AFC North.  Not stubbornly sticking to the run could also take this team to the next level.  A potent passing offense combined with one of the game’s best defenses is a combination most teams won’t be able to successfully combat. Heading into the season, I’ve got them as the second best team in the conference.

Team MVP – Ben Roethlisberger

Breakout Player – Jonathan Dwyer

Disappointment – Isaac Redman

2) Baltimore Ravens

Key Gets – Courtney Upshaw (LB, Alabama), Kelechi Osmele (G, Iowa State), Jacoby Jones (WR, Texans)

Key Gones – Ben Grubbs (G, Saints), Jarret Johnson (LB, San Diego), Chris Carr (CB, Vikings), Cory Redding (DE, Colts)

Key Games – wk1 v. Bengals, wk2 @ Eagles, wk3 v. Patriots, wk6 v. Cowboys, wk7 @ Texans, wk11 @ Steelers, wk12 @ Chargers, wk15 v. Broncos, wk16 v. Giants, wk17 @ Bengals

Oh Billy Cundiff.  The Ravens saw their run at another Super Bowl title thwarted when their kicker missed a chip shot FG to send the conference championship game into overtime.  Heck, Cundiff wouldn’t have had a chance to be the goat had Lee Evans held onto the potential TD pass just a couple of plays earlier.  It was a crushing loss for a team looking to reassert themselves as the lead dog in the AFC.  How much of a championship window remains for guys like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed?  Will the Ravens be able to keep pace with the teams like the Patriots, Steelers, and Texans this year? 

Fortunately for Baltimore they still possess one of the game’s most valuable weapons in Ray Rice.  The fifth year veteran rushed for a career high 1,364 yards and added his second 70+ catch season in 2011.  There is no doubt who is the focal point of the offense.  I do worry that, for the first time, there’s no veteran depth behind him; no Willis McGahee or Ricky Williams.  Joe Flacco is one of the harder guys in the league to evaluate.  At times he looks like a guy who can be the guy, and then he goes out and has a stinker.  Flacco rarely ever seems to get into a true flow offensively and, while he has improved in this department, he still doesn’t handle pressure terribly well.  Typically, when he senses pressure, the play is over.  I still think he’s going to struggle to reach his potential as long as conservative Cam Cameron is his OC.  They’ve got to open up this offense and stop being as predictable as they are.  In Flacco’s defense, it’s not like he’s throwing to the Three Amigos.  Anquan Boldin can still catch what’s thrown his way, but he can’t separate and isn’t a difference maker anymore.  I believe Torrey Smith is the key to this offense’s success in 2012.  If he can build upon a commendable rookie campaign and become Flacco’s #1 downfield threat, that’s only going to open things up for the rest of the offense.  Expect Smith to have a huge year.  I do worry a little bit about the offensive line.  They lost guard Ben Grubbs to the Saints, and Bryant McKinnie was late in getting into camp.  Is this unit moving in the right direction? 

The defense isn’t without its questions as well.  First, they’re going to be without their leading pass rusher, Terrell Suggs, or most, if not all of the season with an Achilles injury.  Suggs led the Ravens in sacks last year with 14, and the next closest player was Pernell McPhee with 6.  Yes, he will be missed.  Rookie Courtney Upshaw is going to get a chance to replace Suggs, but that’s a hell of a lot easier said than done.  Ray Lewis is 37, and Ed Reed is about to turn 34.  Both are still among the best at their respective positions, but there’s no denying that both have lost a step (more so Lewis) and are no longer the play-to-play monsters they used to be.  I think the Jarrett Johnson and Cory Redding losses will be significant as well.  Having a front line of Haloti Ngata, Terrence Cody, and Arthur Jones will cure a lot of ails.  There’s a lot of beef and strength up front for Baltimore.  The most valuable player on defense might just be Lardarius Webb.  The fourth year corner from Nicholls State has quickly and quietly established himself as one of the more dangerous cover men in the game.  I’m a big fan of Jimmy Smith’s and think there’s a ton of scheme-altering potential in having both he and Webb on the field at the same time.  If Smith continues to make strides, you’re talking about having two corners you can put on an island, freeing up the rest of the defense to take more risks and make big plays. 

Will the offensive line be a strength?  Can they develop more than two or three receiving threats?  Who will step up in Suggs’ absence?  I like rooting for the Ravens, but I get a feeling that this isn’t going to be a (positively) memorable season for them.  Anything goes once you get the playoffs.  I just worry that they’ll have trouble getting there.

Team MVP – Ray Rice

Breakout Player – Torrey Smith

Disappointment – Bryant McKinnie

3) Cincinnati Bengals

Key Gets – Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, Patriots), Terence Newman (CB, Cowboys), Jason Allen (CB, Texans), Kevin Zeitler (G, Wisconsin), Devon Still (DT, Penn State), Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)

Key Gones – Cedric Benson (RB, FA), Andre Caldwell (WR, Broncos), Kelly Jennings (CB, FA), Jerome Simpson (WR, Vikings)

Key Games – wk1 @ Ravens, wk7 v. Steelers, wk9 v. Broncos, wk10 v. Giants, wk13 @ Chargers, wk14 v. Cowboys, wk15 @ Eagles, wk 16 @ Steelers, wk17 v. Ravens

They stink.  They’re good.  They stink.  They’re good.  That’s been the pattern of the Cincinnati Bengals for the last four years.  Coming off a 4-12 season in 2010, the Bengals won 9 games and made the playoffs last year.  The biggest reasons for the turnaround were a pair of rookies – AJ Green and Andy Dalton – who set an NFL record for yards and receptions by a rookie QB and WR combo.  With those two in place for the foreseeable future, the year to year up and down routine should cease.

Dalton entered the league as arguably the most NFL-ready QB in last year’s draft and did nothing to disprove those thoughts.  He’s never going to have the league’s strongest arm, but Dalton’s  intelligence and leadership were on display the entire year as he amassed 20 TDs and nearly 3,400 yards passing.  His #1 target, Green, led the team in receptions, receiving yards, and TDs and is already considered one of the best at his position.  It’s very impressive to have two rookies in those key positions make a pretty seamless transition from the college game to the pros.  They should be fun to watch again this year.  What would really help Green is the emergence of another receiving threat.  I think that guy will be Jermaine Gresham.  He’s been a steady player his first two years as a pro, and I believe he’s a big bodied guy that they need to feature a lot more.  Jordan Shipley isn’t recovered from his ACL injury, and neither Brandon Tate nor Armon Binns strikes me as the Marvin Harrison to Green’s Reggie Wayne.  I don’t see how they can’t feature Gresham.  Cedric Benson is gone after three straight 1,000+ yard rushing seasons.  In his place is former Patriot, BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  I don’t think BJGE is a real upgrade over Benson, but I think you’ll see a more balanced running game with Bernard Scott getting increased touches.  Handling the dirty work is one of the league’s best offensive lines.  They’re more than solid at tackle with one of the game’s more underrated linemen, Andrew Whitworth, on the left and Andre Smith on the right.  Rookie Kevin Zeitler steps in and improves RG, but they’re going to have to play the year without LG Travelle Wharton who recently went down with an ACL injury. 

The key to this defense is their talent and depth up front.  Geno Atkins and Domata Peko are strong pairing inside.  Atkins was an All Pro last year, and it could be argued that Peko played near that level as well.  If they weren’t enough, the Bengals went out and drafted Devon Still and Brandon Thompson this offseason.  At end, Michael Johnson finally showed some of that pass rushing potential, but Carlos Dunalp took a step back.  I look for that latter to be closer to 2010’s 9.5 sacks rather than last year’s 4.5.  Rey Maualuga might be the most popular Bengal linebacker, but Manny Lawson is the most valuable.  He’s always around the football and rarely gets caught out of position.  Cornerback was strengthened this offseason with the drafting of Dre Kirkpatrick and the signing of Jason Allen and Terence Newman in free agency.  I think they’re both nice depth signings.  They also have veteran Nate Clements.  If Leon Hall is unable to make a healthy return from last year’s Achilles injury, they’ll have experienced guys to turn to opposite Kirkpatrick.  I’m not as high on the safeties.  Taylor Mays hasn’t figured out the NFL yet, and Reggie Nelson is still an incomplete player. 

I see the Bengals taking a small step forward this year but falling just behind the Ravens for third place in the division.  I believe their play will improve, but I’m not sure they get to 10 wins or back to the playoffs. 

Team MVP – AJ Green

Breakout Player – Jermaine Gresham

Disappointment – BenJarvus Green-Ellis

4) Cleveland Browns

Key Gets – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama), Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State), Josh Gordon (WR, Utah)

Key Gone – Peyton Hillis (RB, Chiefs)

Key Games – wk1 v. Eagles, wk2 @ Bengals, wk4 @ Ravens, wk5 @Giants, wk6 v. Bengals, wk8 v. Chargers, wk9 v. Ravens, wk11 @ Cowboys, wk12 v. Steelers, wk16 @ Broncos, wk17 @ Steelers

Cleveland finished 4-12 for the second time in four seasons and has gone a pathetic 18-46 over that span.  The team was recently sold, and the forgetful Mike Holmgren era will undoubtedly soon be a thing of the past.  They couldn’t run the ball.  Peyton Hillis saw his 2010 rushing total cut in half during a season that saw him injured and in a contentious relationship with management.  They couldn’t throw it.  Of the league’s QBs with over 400 pass attempts, only Blaine Gabbert threw for less yards than Colt McCoy.  They couldn’t catch it.  Greg Little led the way with 61 receptions which put him 41^st in the league, tied with Kansas City’s #2 receiver, Steve Breaston, and Buffalo’s #2 receiver, David Nelson.  The picture above says it all.

They’ve attempted to rectify their offensive woes this offseason by addressing their skilled position deficiencies.  Brandon Weeden, the 28 year old rookie from Oklahoma State, already has the starting job.  He’ll be an improvement over McCoy, but I don’t think he’ll have as much early success as the two other QBs taken before him in the draft.  Trent Richardson goes from the NCAA’s best back to Cleveland’s savior.  If the Browns are going to put many points on the board this year, Richardson will need to live up to his billing.  He recently underwent a knee scope, so that will be worth watching as the regular season nears.  Whether he’s running hot or cold, Richardson is going to be the focus of the offense.  They don’t have any other option.  Joining Little at receiver is supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon.  Cleveland spend a 2^nd round pick on the receiver and will expect him to join Little in the starting lineup sooner rather than later.  The most proven part of the offense heading into the season is the men doing the blocking up front.  Left tackle Joe Thomas and center Alex Mack are among the best at their positions, and drafting Mitchell Schwartz will give them an upgrade at right tackle. 

The defense isn’t in as bad a shape as the offense.  They were a top ten unit last year and finished second in the league against the pass.   Their biggest problem is that they were among the worst in the league at stopping the run, and losing Phil Taylor for most of the season with a torn pectoral isn’t going to help things.  Left end Jabaal Sheard was the most consistent defensive lineman and was dominant at times in accumulating his 8.5 sacks which was good for second best ever by a Browns rookie.  D’Qwell Jackson is a real asset when healthy, and he made it through last year unscathed.  Cleveland rewarded him with a large contract.  They were dealt a blow in the preseason when Chris Gocong suffered a torn Achilles which will cause him to miss the season.  Gocong isn’t a spectacular player, but he did a lot of the dirty work and teamed well with Jackson.  The guys flanking Jackson with year will be under a microscope.  In the secondary, teams avoid Joe Haden about as much as they do Darrelle Revis.  The problem is that no one else is creating turnovers.  They finished with 9 INTs which was 22 less than the Packers had.  With more balls coming their way due to teams shying away from Haden, Cleveland defensive backs need to create more takeaways. 

They’re counting on a bunch of rookies on offense and are already losing players on defense before the season starts.  Barring a collapse by the Ravens or Bengals, I don’t see any way this team doesn’t finish in the basement. 

Team MVP – Joe Haden

Breakout Player – Greg Little

Disappointment – Brandon Weeden

Division MVP – Ray Rice

Division Breakout Player – Torrey Smith

Division Disappointment – Brandon Weeden