First let me say that this is probably the hardest draft
I’ve ever tried to predict. There are
next to no elite talents, and when we look back on this class in five years,
you’re likely to see as many good picks in the third round as you will the
first. I think the player parity
throughout the draft as well as evolving offensive and defensive philosophies
across the league will lead to a lot of surprise selections.
With less than a month until what should be a real crapshoot
of a draft, here’s my best educated guess as to how the first 43 picks will play
out as well as what I think and hope the Bucs will do with all of their draft
choices.
Primary needs – OT, QB, ILB
They could still surprise everyone, but I believe Eric
Winston’s release gives us the clearest indication as to where the Chiefs are
going with this pick. Branden Albert
spouted off on Twitter about not moving to right tackle, and then his account was
quickly shut down. Hmmm… I’d be
surprised if they took Floyd here due to how the Dorsey and Jackson experiments
of moving a 4-3 tackle to the 5-techniqure worked out, or didn’t.
The pick – Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
2) Jacksonville
Jaguars
Primary needs – QB, DE, CB, RT, OLB
Blaine Gabbert is awful, but I don’t think their interest in
Geno Smith is sincere. I expect new head
coach Gus Bradley to focus on finding his Leo with his first pick. Here he gets possibly the most complete edge
guy in the draft and a sorely needed defensive difference maker.
The pick – Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon )
3) Oakland
Raiders –
Primary needs – QB, DT, CB, OLB, MLB , DE
Carson Palmer is likely to be released, and I have a hard
time accepting Terrelle Pryor as a legit starter. Do they take one here? I’d like to give a team a little credit. Just because they don’t have a QB or a second
round pick doesn’t mean that they have to take Smith. I’m not high on him and think they’ll again
be picking in the top five next year regardless of who’s under center. If that’s the case wouldn’t it make sense to
wait on a QB until next year when they’ll be worth taking this high? Losing Desmond Bryant, Tommy Kelly, and
Richard Seymour leaves a big hole in the middle of a weak defense, and I think
they’ll take the highest rated tackle on their board. Signing Vance Walker and Pat Sims shouldn’t
prohibit them from going DT with this pick.
The pick – Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida )
The pick – Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
Miami
appears to be going as “all in” as they can this year, and I like the
aggressiveness. I expect it to continue
in the draft. Yes, I realize they signed
Mike Wallace and re-signed Brian Hartline, but I see them going even further to
give Ryan Tannehill the best chance to succeed.
Davis
isn’t a large corner, but I really like his coverage skills and the way he
tracks the football. He uses his
aggressiveness and plus speed to stay with receivers downfield; good recovery
speed as well. The two things I believe
he needs to work on most are play recognition and tackling technique which are
both coachable. Tons of upside here.
4) Philadelphia
Eagles
Primary needs – QB, T, ILB, CB
Chip Kelly’s QB of the future isn’t on his roster, but
taking one here would be a bad move in my opinion. Instead I think they’ll look to stabilize
their offensive line with someone they can line up at right tackle until Jason Peters
leaves or gets hurt again.
The pick – Eric Fisher (T, Central
Michigan )
5) Detroit
Lions
Primary needs – T, DE, CB, OLB
Dee Milliner is a popular pick here, but I think Detroit already has their
starters at corner with Chris Houston and Chris Greenwood. With Joeckel and Fisher off the board, I have
them looking at either Lane Johnson or a pass rusher. For now I’ll assume they won’t take the third
player at his position with the fifth overall pick.
The pick – Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
6) Cleveland
Browns
Primary needs – QB, WR, CB, RG, ILB
This is about as high as I think Chance Warmack could
go. The Browns figure to rely heavily on
Trent Richardson this season, so adding his collegiate blocking mate would be
one way to go. I think the more likely
option is for them to find a corner opposite Joe Haden.
The pick – Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama )
7) Arizona
Cardinals
Primary needs – QB, T/G, OLB
Another team linked to taking a QB. Another time I pass on one. I think drafting a QB here will set the
Cardinals back another 3-5 years, and call me crazy but I’m actually a little
intrigued to see what Drew Stanton can do.
There’s also talk that they’ll pounce on Carson Palmer when the Raiders
release him. Their line is awful,
regardless of who’s under center, so I think they’ll go that route. They’re showing no signs of giving up on Levi
Brown yet at LT and could help him and Stanton at the same time with this pick.
The pick – Chance Warmack (G, Alabama )
8) Buffalo
Bills
Primary needs – QB, WR, ILB
They’re not taking an inside linebacker here, but they could
go after a pass rusher like Jarvis Jones.
I think this is too high for Cordarrelle Patterson, but he’s my second
choice with this pick. If you’ve been
paying attention to anything Buddy Nix has said, publicly or recorded
privately, he desperately wants a QB. I
don’t think any in this draft are worth this pick, but QBs are overdrafted more
than any other position.
The pick – Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia )
9) New York
Jets
Primary needs – QB, OL, OLB, S, RB
Part of me would like to see Smith still on the board here
and watch fans react to the Jets passing on him. What if they passed on him to take
Warmack? Rex Ryan has to show a pulse
next season if he want to have any chance of being around in 2014, and getting
a pass rusher here would likely make the biggest impact.
The pick – Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia)
10) Tennessee
Titans
Primary needs – CB, G, DE
With Milliner off the board, I don’t see them going corner
here. I’ve got it down to a lineman or
pass rusher, and even after adding Andy Levitre, they need more help in the
interior. Here I’m giving them someone
to plug in at RG with center versatility.
The pick – Jonathan Cooper (OL, North Carolina )
11) San Diego
Chargers
Primary needs – OL, CB, LB
If the Chargers want to give Philip Rivers any chance this
year, they must upgrade his protection. I
think a worst case scenario has one from Warmack, Cooper, and Lane Johnson on
the board when they pick. Guess who I’m
taking?
12) Miami
Dolphins
Primary needs – T, CB, DE, RB
After losing Sean Smith in free agency, the Dolphins must
find a replacement. Do they take Rhodes
or Trufant here or look elsewhere? Despite
all the smoke about the Dolphins being interested in Rhodes ,
I don’t see him as a fit in their heavy zone coverage scheme. I’m going with the first shocker of the
draft.
The pick – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia )
13) Tampa
Bay
Primary needs – CB, TE, DL
It certainly has been a frustrating free agent period. The Buccaneers went into the new year with
huge needs at CB and TE and room for improvement on the defensive line, yet
their big move was to make Dashon Goldson the highest paid safety in football. Corner after corner signed elsewhere, and
Michael Bennett went to Seattle
on a very affordable one year deal.
What’s going on in the front office?
If I can rule out insanity, it’s safe to assume that the process of
finding “Buccaneer men” requires adherence to a very strict set of criteria. Yes, I’m going with roster philosophy over a
return to the dollar store days. Dominik
and Schiano were well aware of the available corners and saw the relatively
inexpensive contracts they were signing yet still didn’t get in the game. Why not?
I agree with the philosophy of building the core of your
roster through the draft, but there simply isn’t enough time in this era of
football to rely as heavily on doing so as they appear to be. I appreciate the fiscal integrity, but I
believe the plan needs to be expanded.
With the window of patience shrinking by the season in the NFL, following
a philosophy like this too rigidly could lead to the demise of Dominik and
Schiano. They don’t have to sign a
Jackson or Nicks every offseason, but they must to a better job of finding
“mid-grade” talent to supplement the draft picks and high profile free
agents. There needs to be a better sense
of urgency.
If I can end the rant there, let’s take a
position-by-position look at the Bucs’ options with the 13th overall
pick.
Not under consideration – QB, RB, WR, G, C, S
We can dream of the Bucs finding Freeman’s replacement, but
it’s not happening in the first round of this draft. Martin is the man at RB, and they’re set at
safety as well as the interior of the offensive line. Tavon Austin would have
been tempting, but with him off the board, I think it’s safe to assume the Bucs
won’t take a receiver.
OT – Unless Lane Johnson falls to #13 (zero chance Joeckel
or Fisher are there), I can’t see them taking a tackle. A couple of quarterbacks going in the top 12
would help the chances of him falling, but I just don’t see the happening. Would they take Fluker at RT? He’s a beast in the run game, but he’s never
going to be a left tackle and could possibly be a better guard than
tackle. Is that the best use of this
pick?
DE – Jordan
won’t be there, and the Bucs will need some luck to have Ansah go unselected by
the first twelve teams. Consider this –
if the Bucs let Bennett walk for next to nothing and want to give Clayborn and
Bowers their chance to shine, would they really be looking for a pass rusher
here? I don’t mention Mingo as I don’t
think he’ll be able to be anything other than a situational rusher in a 4-3
defense.
DT – Floyd is a top 10 pick, so that leaves Star Lotulelei
and Sheldon Richardson as the top defensive tackles in the draft. Regarding Richardson , if we’re drafting a tackle I’d
want to take someone who can play next to McCoy, not behind him, and Lotulelei
would probably have a better chance of starting at the nose. I realize that NT isn’t an impact position in
this scheme, but if Lotulelei is there, he may be the personification of making
your scheme fit your talent rather than the other way around.
LB – The Bucs added Jonathan Casillas in free agency, but
I’d like to think he’s depth and special teams rather than the solution at
SLB. If that’s the case, the Bucs
ideally need to find either an upgrade to Watson and Goode on the strong side
or a MLB who can cover and push Foster to the strong side. Of the round one options Alec Ogletree has
too many red flags, Kevin Minter isn’t a coverage upgrade, and I have zero
interest in the drama queen from Notre Dame.
TE – Tom Crabtree was a nice grab in free agency, but with
just 18 catches in three years with Aaron Rodgers as his QB, he’s ideally the
#2 to a pass catcher. Like cornerback
the Bucs sat idly by as tight end after tight end found a home, which may
indicate their affinity for some of the draft’s talent, namely Tyler
Eifert. The Golden Domer is clearly the
top player at his position and has the size, athleticism, and receiving ability
of the en vogue tight ends such as Gronk and Graham.
CB – Easily the team’s biggest weakness, the Bucs went into
free agency needing to find two starters, and nearly a month later, the
situation remains unchanged. With
Milliner long gone the remaining round one options figure to be Xavier Rhodes
and Desmond Trufant. There were reports
earlier this offseason that the Bucs weren’t interested in taking a corner with
this pick. Was that true, and if so, is
it still the case? Ideally they’d move
down a few spots and still get one of them while gaining another pick or two
since it’s unlikely that the next several teams would pursue a corner over
other similar talent that would address greater needs. A trade down to #18 with Dallas seems ideal.
If I can’t trade down, the best available players in my
opinion are (in no particular order) Star Lotulelei, Xavier Rhodes, Tyler
Eifert, Shelton Richardson, and Desmond Trufant. What do I think the Bucs will do?
The pick – Xavier Rhodes (CB, FSU)
The Buccaneers, through their inactivity, have painted
themselves into a corner this offseason, and it looks like they’ll be forced to
take one with their first pick. As a
huge Rhodes fan, I obviously don’t see this as
a reach at all, but I’d rather not feel like I have to take a corner
with the first pick. Can’t change that
now though.
I still believe Rhodes has
the highest upside of all the corners in this draft and that he’s the best way
for the Bucs to give their pass defense a pulse. If they end up mortgaging future draft picks
and salary cap space for Revis without losing this pick, he and Rhodes would
give the Bucs two serious presences at corner.
If they don’t make a move for Revis, I’d stay on the lookout for another
corner in round two.
If they don’t go with Rhodes ,
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they took Eifert. They talk a lot about needing to stop the
Grahams and Gronks of the world, and you could interpret that as their desire
to acquire a similar weapon for their own usage. Their free agent move was to get Tom
Crabtree, an ideal #2 to a pass catcher.
They need to find out if Freeman is their guy, and surrounding him with
as much talent as possible, could help them do that. Lastly, if ever there was a year to make a
non-traditional pick, it’s this year given the overall player parity in this
class.
14) Carolina
Panthers
Primary needs – DT, CB, S, OL
Defensive tackle has been a big need of theirs for a few
years, and with two of the draft’s top three still available, I’d have a hard
time seeing them go elsewhere. If I had
to make a surprise pick, I’d go with a receiver.
The pick – Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri )
15) New Orleans
Saints
Primary needs – T, S, DL, OLB
I’d list left tackle as the team’s biggest need, but unless
they move up the board, they’re not getting one in this round. Defensively, they’re moving to a 3-4 front
under Rex Ryan, and while they’re not overloaded with pass rushers, there is a
bit of quantity. They just signed Victor
Butler, a similar talent to Barkevious Mingo, so I pass on him here. Instead I’m giving them the anchor at NT to
build the defense around.
The pick – Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah )
16) St. Louis
Rams
Primary needs – S, WR, SLB
Fortunately for the Rams they should be able to address both
of their top needs with their two first round picks. Here I’m taking the guy most likely to be
coveted by the teams picking between this selection and #22.
The pick – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas )
17) Pittsburgh
Steelers
Primary needs – OLB, WR ,
DE
It’s too early for an inside backer, and despite losing Mike
Wallace, it’s not the Steeler way to take a receiver in round one. They could take a pass rusher, but I’m not
loving the available talent. I’m going
off the radar here and giving Big Ben a guy who could end up being his primary
target for the second half of his Steeler career.
The pick – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
18) Dallas
Cowboys
Primary needs – OL, S, DL
There aren’t any suitable offensive linemen available, and with
Vaccaro off the board I think they’ll look to find a defensive lineman that can
be a building block of Monte Kiffin’s defense.
This one will surprise some people.
The pick – Tank Carradine (DE, FSU)
Yes, I think Carradine has a good chance of going before his
teammate Bjoern Werner since it looks like teams are starting to get with the
program and realize how much potential this guy has. With Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware
anything but long term fixtures, they need to get a pass rusher that fits the
scheme and will still be on the team in three years.
19) New York
Giants
Primary needs – LB, RT, CB, DE
With the way this has played out, I see three options with
this pick. Do they take DJ Fluker to
solve their problem at RT? What about
Trufant to improve their pass coverage?
I’m going the linebacker route with a guy who looks like the perfect
Coughlin player and whose stock has reportedly been soaring.
The pick – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State
20) Chicago
Bears
Primary needs – OL, LB, CB
I believe in this scenario the Bears will go the best
available route rather than focusing on a primary need. Charles Tillman is 32, and Tim Jennings turns
30 in December. Both are free agents in
’14. Depth is needed, as is help against
the Packers and Calvin Johnson.
The pick – Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
21) Cincinnati
Bengals
Primary needs – RB, LB, S, RT
As I type, Andre Smith remains a free agent, so if he isn’t
brought back, maybe they consider replacing him with another Bama tackle,
Fluker. Rey Maualuga is garbage but was
brought back to play MLB. There’s talk
that they could replace him with Te’o, but that’s a headscratcher since Te’o,
like Maualuga, is a two down linebacker.
They could use a #1 back, but I doubt they’d take Lacy here. It wouldn’t shock me at all if this guy ends
up being the best player at his position from this class.
The pick – Jonathan Cyprien (S, FIU)
22) St. Louis
Rams (via WAS)
Primary needs – WR, SLB
With one of the picks acquired in last year’s RGIII trade,
the Rams will likely be taking their top rated available receiver.
The pick – Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee )
23) Minnesota
Vikings
Primary needs – WR, DT, MLB, CB
The Vikings had a weak passing game last year and dealt away
their biggest weapon behind Adrian Peterson.
Even with the acquisition of Greg Jennings, I’ve got the think they’ll
look to take a receiver with one of their first two picks. The smarter move
might be to take the guy they want who is most likely liked by Indy as
well. Both teams need a big presence in
the middle of their defensive lines.
The pick – Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
24) Indianapolis
Colts
Primary needs – CB, OLB, G, DE
Andrew Luck is the franchise, and the franchise spent a lot
of time on his franch-ass last year.
They’ve added Gosder Cherilus at RT and Donald Thomas at LG, so RG is
currently their weak link up front. They
could address that weakness by taking DJ Fluker here and moving him
inside. They brought in a couple of pass
rushers this offseason, but neither Erik Walden nor Lawrence Sidbury should
prohibit them from drafting one here.
The pick – Damontre Moore (OLB, Texas A&M)
25) Minnesota
Vikings (via SEA)
Primary needs – WR, MLB, CB
Te’o is getting some talk here, but I really question how
productive a three down backer he’ll be in the pros. I have a hard time seeing them pass on a receiver
here to pair with Jennings ,
and I’m a big fan of this player.
The pick – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
26) Green Bay
Packers
Primary needs – C, RB, OLB, OT, WR
I don’t see the first two positions of need being the pick,
and I don’t see immediate impact by the available pass rushers. You don’t think of receiver being a big
position of need for the Packers, but with the loss of Greg Jennings and how
often they run multiple receiver sets, they’re not terribly deep. This guy is my favorite receiver in the draft
and would make things nearly unfair lined up with Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson,
and James Jones.
The pick – Quinton Patton (WR, Louisiana Tech)
27) Houston
Texans
Primary needs – WR, ILB, RT, RG, OLB
I feel like I mock a receiver to these guys every year. Maybe this time they’ll actually do it. Their need for a viable target opposite Andre
Johnson was highlighted this past season, and I doubt they continue to ignore
it. I keep reading about an emphasis on
speed, but I’d rather have the well-rounded receiver.
The pick – Keenan Allen (WR, California )
28) Denver
Broncos
Primary needs – DE, S, RB, MLB
Eddie Lacy might be a popular pick, but I think Denver will first look to
upgrade the other side of the ball. They
lost Elvis Dumervil in that weird contract deadline situation, and here they’ll
get really good value in attempting to replace him.
The pick – Bjoern Werner (DE, FSU)
29) New England Patriots
Primary needs – WR, DT, DE
I think they’ll focus on defense with this pick, and finding
a versatile athlete to pair up front with Vince Wilfork would be a nice move in
my opinion.
The pick – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
30) Atlanta
Falcons
Primary needs – DE, LB, DT, CB
Even after landing Osi Umenyiora they’ll still be really
thin at DE.
The pick – Datone Jones (DE, UCLA)
31) San Francisco
49ers
Primary needs – FS, CB, OLB , NT
The 49ers own two of the next four picks, and I’ll look to
address the defense with both of them. I’m
very intrigued with the idea of making this guy a part of that unit.
The pick – Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
32) Baltimore
Ravens
Primary needs – ILB, WR, LT, FS
The champs have been hit hard by free agency, and no
position more so than inside linebacker.
I think this guy would help them start to make up for losing Ray Lewis
to retirement and Dannell Ellerbe to the Dolphins.
The pick – Kevin Minter (ILB, LSU)
Round 1 position breakdown –
QB – 1
RB – 0
WR – 5
TE – 1
OT – 3
G/C – 2
DT – 5
DE – 6
OLB – 3
ILB – 1
CB – 3
S – 2
It’s not often that you see 1 combined QB and RB go in the
first round of a draft, but I really don’t see how that number is higher unless
teams start forcing it. No, it’s not a
terribly top-heavy-talented draft, but overall the QB class is simply
shoddy.
ROUND 2
33) Jacksonville
Jaguars
Primary needs – QB, CB, RT, OLB
The Jags appear to be committed to a Gabbert-Henne battle
for some reason, but if every QB other than Smith is still here, I wouldn’t put
it past them to use this pick on one. If
they don’t, I think Bradley will look to find his second Seattle reproduction – a tall, aggressive
corner. Johnthan Banks is my fallback
pick here.
The pick – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse )
34) San Francisco
49ers (via KC)
Primary needs – CB, OLB ,
NT
After netting Hunt with their first choice, I think they’ll focus
on the back end of the defense with one of the picks acquired in the Alex Smith
trade.
The pick – Jonthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State
35) Philadelphia
Eagles
Primary needs – QB, ILB, CB
I think this could be where Chip Kelly rolls the dice on a
QB, and I’ve got him taking the guy he tried, unsuccessfully, to recruit to Oregon five years ago.
The pick – EJ Manuel (QB, FSU)
36) Detroit
Lions
Primary needs – T, CB, OLB
After missing out on a tackle in the first round, I think
the Lions will look to pounce on one here should the opportunity present
itself. I wouldn’t be surprised to see
this guy go in the top 25.
The pick – Menelik Watson (T, FSU)
37) Cincinnati
Bengals (via OAK)
Primary needs – RB, LB, RT
As I touched on earlier, I think the Bengals are better off
in the long run without Maualuga, so I’ll look to find a guy who can play on
the weak side, allowing Burfict to slide inside.
Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia )
38) Arizona
Cardinals
Primary needs – QB, OLB
I was set to slot a different passer here, but the Cardinals
appear to be smitten with this guy.
They’re fools if they take him with their first pick because I strongly
doubt he won’t be on the board at #38.
The pick – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
39) New York
Jets
Primary needs – QB, RB, S
Would the Jets really take another Trojan QB with a
questionable arm? As much as I’d love to
see them take Matt Barkley and watch the calamity ensue, I’m going to address
their safety deficiency.
The pick – Matt Elam (S, Florida )
40) Tennessee
Titans
Primary needs – S, CB, DE, TE
Zach Ertz might make a good Jared Cook replacement, but I
think they’ll look to improve their secondary.
The pick – Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State
41) Buffalo
Bills
Primary needs – WR, ILB
If they’re going to invest in Geno Smith, they’ll also need
to invest in someone for him to throw to other than Stevie Johnson.
The pick – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
42) Miami
Dolphins
Primary needs – T, CB, DE, RB
As they move to a 4-3 front, the Dolphins could use a true
strong side end, but with the way this one has played out, I’ve got to go with
the guy who has fallen much further than expected. I think he’s more likely to go sooner, but
since he’s either a RT or RG I don’t see a lot of teams picking late in round
one seeing that as their top priority.
The pick – DJ Fluker (OL, Alabama )
43) Tampa
Bay
Primary needs – TE, CB, DL, LB
I’ve got this one down to two players – a tight end and
another corner. Zach Ertz is the #2
tight end in the draft, and like Eifert, would give the Bucs a presence that’s
missing in the middle of the field. He
would be the pass catcher to Crabtree’s blocker. The corner I’m considering is Darius
Slay. I had him listed just below Logan
Ryan in my list of corner to consider in my offseason previous, but Slay is
probably an even better fit, is soaring up draft boards, and I’d proffer that
he’ll end up a better professional than his collegiate boundary mate.
The pick – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Ertz is a move tight end that and could take advantage of
coverage mismatches. He’s a true hands
pass catcher who would give Freeman another big target to heave it up to. I like the thought of him creating more
looks/formations for the offense. Ertz
isn’t a slippery or speedy guy, but has impressive agility for a big guy. Combine that with his excellent hands and
wide catch radius, and this is a guy who can be a difference maker. He’s got a long way to go as a blocker from
strength and leverage points, but the effort is there.
REMAINING BUCCANEER
PICKS
Round 3
After taking Rhodes and Ertz, the positions I don’t think
will be considered here are RB, TE, G, C, and S. That leaves possibilities at QB, WR, T, DE,
DT, and LB. Who’s available? The third round is no man’s land at QB for
the Bucs. My favorite QB for the Bucs in
this draft is EJ Manuel, and I have him going in the second round. The Bucs will want whoever this pick is to
play right away.
Stedman Bailey is my favorite receiver for the Bucs. I believe that he’s horribly underrated
having played in Tavon Austin’s shadow at West Virginia, and is going to be a
huge steal for someone. The guy is a
terrific route runner and has two of the best hands in this draft. The knock on him is size, but give me a guy
with an extensive route tree who consistently racks up yards after the
catch. I think Bailey has a really
bright future as a professional. Remember
how successful the Bucs offense was with Ike Hilliard in the slot?
Big Brandon Williams is a small school guy who I think would
provide an attractive, stout presence next to McCoy. If they go defensive line, he’s the guy I
want to them to take. From what little I’ve
seen of him, he has the size, strength, and hands to be a contributor in
multiple positions up front. He has
quick feet and does a good job occupying blockers, making them work. I’d like to see him play with a little more
control, and that can be coached.
The pick – Stedman Bailey (WR, West Virginia )
I pleaded for Randall Cobb as a second round pick in the ’11
draft, and Bailey, while not as explosive, would abuse defenses in open the
open field just as Cobb does.
Round 4
The Bucs have two selections in this round and so far have
gone:
Xavier Rhodes (CB, FSU)
Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Stedman Bailey (WR, West
Virginia )
With the remaining five picks I’d focus on QB, T, DL, LB, and
CB. Also, if the Bucs have yet to draft
a tight end, I’d spend one of these picks on Dion Sims. If Brandon Williams is still available he’d
be at the top of the list here. If he’s
not, I have five players in mind with these two selections. Here they are:
QB – Zac Dysert
What stands out most to me with him is his confidence and
how he looks to have some of that “it” factor that everyone wants in a
quarterback. He’s far from complete as a
quarterback, but I think he’s got a lot to work with. Dysert is an athletic guy who throws well on
the run. He also threw a lot of timing
plays in college, but he does a nice job of seeing the whole field. If I’m going to pick on something, he puts
too much air under a lot of his passes which is correctable. He’s not a dual threat guy but can pick up
yards with his legs; doesn’t look like Tom Brady when he tucks it and runs.
RB – Christine Michael
Michael has plenty of talent, but his baggage is the reason
he won’t get drafted high. Based on
skill he’s one of the top three backs in the draft. To me I think he’s worth the risk this late
as a well-rounded compliment to Martin.
He runs with authority and effort, something Martin’s current backup does
not.
WR – Ryan Swope
If Bailey isn’t the third round pick, I want them to
seriously consider Swope. He has
tremendous concentration, catches the ball in any spot in the field, and has
more long speed than he’s given credit for. Welker is the lazy comparison for
Swope, but I’d argue that Swope is the more aggressive receiver. He has a large
catch radius due to skill not arm length, which is something I look for. The
ball doesn’t have to be in his chest in order for him to catch it. The guy is
simply a football player.
LB – Ty Powell
Schiano is very active with his linebackers, and I have
someone in mind that I think would be a perfect fit. Ty Powell played DE at Harding but has the
skill set to shine at SLB in this scheme.
I’m very impressed with his agility and footwork for a guy who’s 6-2,
250. He has experience as a safety, and
it shows with his impressive change of direction in coverage. Powell had 8.5 sacks as a senior and would
give the Bucs another needed pass rushing presence.
CB – Will Davis
The picks –
Ty Powell (LB, Harding)
Will Davis (CB, Utah
State
Rounds 5 & 6
The Bucs have three picks in these two rounds – their two
and the extra sixth they picked up in the Arrelious Benn deal.
The picks –
Kenjon Barner (RB, Oregon )
Montori Hughes (DT, Tennessee-Martin)
Armonty Bryant (DE, E Central Oklahoma )
I see Barner as the Buccaneers’ version of Darren
Sproles. He’d be an electric compliment
to Martin, carrying and catching the ball out of the backfield and helping out
on returns. In my offseason preview I
mentioned Danny Woodhead as an option in free agency and how attractive he’d be
as a no-huddle / fast break option.
Barner is that guy too, and like Woodhead is a tougher runner than he’s
given credit for.
Hughes moves well for a big guy and shows a good get-off. He has a big wing span to go with a large
frame and occupies a lot of space.
Hughes does a nice job of holding up against double teams; doesn’t give
ground. He’s a handful in one-on-one
matchups.
Bryant would occupy a Bennett-type role as a strong side end
who has the ability to movie inside on passing downs. I like his size at the position, but I think
he will be much better off when he adds another 10-15 pounds of upper body in
the weight room. He gets stoned a little
too much when he can’t use his speed to get around blockers, so strength and
hands stand out as things to work on.
Still, he’s a true lottery pick at this point, and you could make worse
gambles than an athletic pass rusher in the sixth round.
SUMMARY
R1 – Xavier Rhodes (CB, FSU)
R2 – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
R3 – Stedman Bailey (WR, West Virginia )
R4a – Ty Powell (LB, Harding)
R4b – Will Davis (CB, Utah State
R5 – Kenjon Barner (RB, Oregon )
R6a – Montori Hughes (DT, Tennessee-Martin)
R6b – Armonty Bryant (DE, E Central
Oklahoma )
A Rhodes/Ertz or Eifert/Slay one-two is how I’d start this
draft. In all the Bucs add three
offensive players and five defensive players.
They get their ‘now or never’ QB immediate impact dynamic talents at TE
and slot receiver. Ertz is a matchup
nightmare, and Bailey can break big plays in the open space that Ertz
creates. Barner is an explosive
compliment to Martin.
On defense, they double down at corner and defensive line
while adding a potential gem SLB. Rhodes
is an instant starter, and Davis
is extremely raw but shows plenty of potential as a boundary corner. Powell is a multi-dimensional linebacker that
could shine opposite Lavonte David. They
finish up by taking two high upside defensive linemen who could contribute
right away.
I waited a while to take a defensive lineman for a couple of
reasons. Judging by their handling of
the Bennett situation, the Bucs are committed to Clayborn and Bowers at
end. I don’t see them spending a high
pick on a pass rusher when they could have retained a versatile, proven commodity
rather inexpensively. Again, with NT not
being a huge impact position in this defense and the fact that they’re soon
going to have to commit a lot of money to McCoy makes me think they’ll wait a
while on a DT. Look at the Bucs draft
history of offensive linemen under Dominik.
They haven’t drafted one since Xavier Fulton in 2009. Why think that will change this year?
It’s been a frustrating offseason thus far, but if the Bucs
put together a draft like this they’ll be addressing some urgent needs as well
as adding high upside depth throughout the roster.
Go Bucs!
