2013 NFL Predictions - Award Winners

MVP

1) Tom Brady

2) Aaron Rodgers

3) Marshawn Lynch

4) Geno Atkins

5) Peyton Manning

6) Adrian Peterson

7) Drew Brees

8) JJ Watt

9) Colin Kaepernick

10) Calvin Johnson

Offensive POY

1) Marshawn Lynch

2) Tom Brady

3) Aaron Rodgers

4) Peyton Manning

5) Adrian Peterson

6) Drew Brees

Defensive POY

1) Geno Atkins

2) JJ Watt

3) Richard Sherman

4) Navorro Bowman

5) Justin Houston

6) Cameron Wake

Offensive ROY

1) DeAndre Hopkins

2) EJ Manuel

3) Le’Veon Bell

4) Eddie Lacy

5) Kenbrell Thompkins

6) Giovani Bernard

Defensive ROY

1) Datone Jones

2) Kenny Vaccaro

3) Arthur Brown

4) Alec Ogletree

5) Xavier Rhodes

6) Star Lotulelei

Comeback POY

1) Robert Griffin III

2) Darrelle Revis

3) Brian Cushing

4) Rob Gronkowski

5) Maurice Jones-Drew

6) Terrell Suggs

Coach of the Year

1) Andy Reid

2) Marvin Lewis

3) Mike Shanahan

4) Sean Payton

5) Bill Belichick

6) Mike McCarthy

League Leaders

Passing Yards

1) Drew Brees

2) Peyton Manning

3) Matt Ryan

Rushing Yards

1) Adrian Peterson

2) Marshawn Lynch

3) Alfred Morris

Receiving Yards

1) Calvin Johnson

2) Brandon Marshall

3) Dez Bryant

Tackles

1) NaVorro Bowman

2) Lavonte David

3) James Laurinaitis

Sacks

1) JJ Watt

2) Cameron Wake

3) Clay Matthews

Interceptions

1) Richard Sherman

2) Patrick Peterson

3) Devin McCourty

2013 NFL Predictions - All Talbuc Team

Here’s who I think stands out most this season.

First Team Offense

QB – Tom Brady

FB – Vonta Leach

RB – Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson

WR – Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dez Bryant

TE – Jimmy Graham

LT – Joe Thomas

LG – Evan Mathis

C – John Sullivan

RG – Marshal Yanda

RT – Anthony Davis

Second Team Offense

QB – Aaron Rodgers

FB – Marcel Reece

RB – Ray Rice, Doug Martin

WR – Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb

TE – Rob Gronkowski

LT – Matt Kalil

LG – Mike Iupati

C – Chris Myers

RG – Alex Boone

RT – Mitchell Schwartz

First Team Defense

DE – JJ Watt, Cameron Wake, DeMarcus Ware

DT – Geno Atkins, Haloti Ngata

ILB – Navorro Bowman, Patrick Willis

OLB – Clay Matthews, Tamba Hali, Terrell Suggs

CB – Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson

S – Earl Thomas, Morgan Burnett

Second Team Defense

DE – Justin Smith, Greg Hardy, Chris Long

DT – Henry Melton, Ndamukong Suh

ILB – James Laurinaitis, Derrick Johnson

OLB – Aldon Smith, Justin Houston, Lavonte David

CB – Darrelle Revis, Cortland Finnegan

S – Reshad Jones, Mark Barron

2013 NFL Predictions - NFC West

1) Seattle Seahawks

I picked these guys as an upset pick to win the division last year, and they were undoubtedly one of the more impressive teams in the league.  In what was thought to be a division of Niners and also-rans, the Seahawks made the playoffs and were a team no one wanted to play.  Guess what?  They better this year. 

Matt Flynn came to town with ideas of replacing Tarvaris Jackson at QB but was outdone for the job by third round pick, Russell Wilson.  The former Wolfpack, former Badger won the starting job in camp and didn’t look back.  He was responsible for 30 total TDs and more than 3,500 yards but more importantly ran the read-option to perfection.  The guy has tremendous leader and the mental make up of a champion.  I’m a big fan.  All Marshawn Lynch did last year was run for a career high by almost 400 yards and prove to be a perfect fit in this offense.  He’ll again finish in the top 5 in rushing, and I think he has an award winning year.  One downer for the ’13 season is that new acquisition Percy Harvin was sidelined before the season even got underway.  The former Viking underwent hip surgery August 1 and is unlikely to suit up until midway through the regular season.  There’s a ton of potential for a ground game that can utilize Lynch, Wilson, Harvin, and rookie Christine Michael.  For now they’ll have to get by with Golden Tate and Sidney Rice at receiver.  The latter may be the de-facto #1, but the former has been getting a ton of hype this preseason.  Tate has a chance to get a lot of the touches earmarked for Harvin and make this dynamic offense even more explosive. 

Seattle has had one of the league’s top defenses for the last two years.  No one allowed fewer points in ’12 than these guys.  They’re likely to lead the league again considering their offseason haul.  Chris Clemons, the team’s leading pass rusher, went down in last year’s Wild Card game with a torn ACL and is questionable for week 1.  No problem.  All they did was go out and sign both Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in free agency.  Avril tallied 20.5 sacks the last two years, and Tampa chose to let Bennett walk after notching a career high 9.  When you add these pass rushers to behemoths like Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane, that’s going to spell trouble for a lot of professional passers.  I like two of their young linebackers.  Bobby Wagner notched a whopping 140 tackles as a rookie at MLB, and KJ Wright is one of the better all-round backers in the game.  That’s pretty solid so far, and I haven’t even mentioned the league’s best secondary.  Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner form the premier corner duo in the game.  They’re big, aggressive, physical, fast, and make plays on the football.  The fact that newly acquired Antoine Winfield, a solid slot guy even at 36, was cut for youngsters Walter Thurmond and Jeremy Lane tells you what Pete Carroll thinks of his young depth.  The safety pairing is as good as the one at corner.  Earl Thomas is the best young safety in the game, in my opinion, and strong safety Kam Chancellor makes Sherman and Browner look soft. 

I’m really high on this team, and given what they’ve accomplished this offseason along with their development and grown in ’12, I think they’ve got what it takes to finish ahead of the Niners. 

MVP – Marshawn Lynch

Breakout – Golden Tate

Disappointment – Sidney Rice

2) San Francisco 49ers

It was a great ride but not quite the finish the NFC champs were hoping for.  After a 12-4 regular season, the Niners appeared to be on the verge of another championship, but the Ravens had other plans.  Are the Niners up for another fight?

Not a lot of guys are getting more hype coming into the ’13 season than Niners QB Colin Kaepernick, and rightfully so.  No qualified passer had a higher yard per attempt average than Kaepernick, and only seven passers had a higher QB rating.  Oh, and did I mention the he’s one of the three most dangerous QBs on the move (along with Rodgers and RGIII)?  Last year Kaepernick had a yards per carry average nearly identical to RGIII’s and had just two fewer rushing scores in just over half as many carriers.  I expect quite the encounter this season.  Defenses have been gearing up to stop the read-option attack, and with the Niners being without Michael Crabtree for at least the majority of the year with an Achilles injury, Kaepernick is going to keep running.  Who will win out?  Frank Gore isn’t 106.  It just seems that way.  The model of consistently the last two years, Gore outdid his ’11 total by 1 yard.  I would like to see him becoming a bigger part of the passing game once again, and maybe that will happen given the situation at receiver.  The newly acquired Anquan Boldin figures to be Kaepernick’s security blanket, and with a lack of depth and experience at the position, the young QB will likely often look his way.  While Boldin is no longer an elite playmaker, there’s not a more reliable set of hands in the game.  After Boldin, the Niners are looking for anyone to step up.  Hopefully rookie Quinton Patton, my favorite receiver from this year’s draft, seizes the opportunity and makes a difference.  The Niners and Chiefs traded busts, so maybe Jim Harbaugh will get something out of Jon Baldwin that KC couldn’t.  Vernon Davis remains one of the best athletes in the league.  Although he and Kaepernick didn’t have that immediate bond you usually see from young QBs and their TE, I expect Davis to be a primary target in Crabtree’s offense.  Look for a big year from him.

I’m not sure these guys can thump their chests as the top unit in their own division, let alone the league, anymore.  Justin Smith may truly be the team’s most valuable player, an opinion that had a lot of validity as Aldon Smith really struggled down the stretch when Justin was sidelined.  The rest of the defense struggled as well, as opposing QBs had less difficulty against this group minus Justin.  He’s ready to go which is great news for everyone.  Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman form the league’s top inside linebacker duo, and I’m not sure that’s even debatable.  They’re both sideline to sideline, physical defenders who don’t make mistakes.  I like Ray McDonald at end, but they’re going to miss NT Isaac Sopoaga at the nose.  As insurance (and proof of lesson learned last year) San Fran drafted both Tank Carradine and Corey Lemonier and signed Glenn Dorsey in free agency.  If you had to pick one area to distinguish between the Seahawks and Niners (other than the stud ILBs), it would be the weaknesses in San Fran’s secondary.  Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, and Nnamdi Asomugha don’t come close to Sherman, Browner, and Thurmond/Lane.  With Dashon Goldson leaving, the Niners turn to rookie Eric Reed to take his place at FS.  Donte Whitner returns at SS, but I worry, at least early on, how these two will function together with Reed being a rookie and Whitner no longer being at the top of his game.  If the Niners experience another loss up front, the repercussions could be much worse this year.

I’m in no way expecting these guys to fade off into the sunset, but I think they’ll take a back seat to Seattle within the division. 

MVP – Colin Kaepernick

Breakout – Quinton Patton

Disappointment – Tarell Brown

3) St. Louis Rams

Jeff Fisher’s first year at the helm wasn’t a winning one, but it had to be considered a success.  Coming off an embarrassing 2-14 ’11 season, the Rams rebounded and looked like a team with some promising youth. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I’m a fan, but Sam Bradford is entering a make-or-bend-forcibly season for me.  This will be his fourth year as a pro and second working with Brian Schottenheimer.  Yes, they’ve lost Steven Jackson, but I do like where their passing game stands.  Tavon Austin gets the publicity as the dynamic weapon, and rightfully so.  He’s of the rare Randall Cobb mold as a player who can beat you in multiple ways.  For this year at least, I’m higher on Chris Givens.  Last year Givens showed himself to be a very viable deep threat, and word is they’re varying his routes a bit more this year.  Look for big things from him.  I also love Austin’s college teammate, Stedman Bailey, and he’d be a solid #5 behind Austin Pettis and Brian Quick.  Lance Kendricks hasn’t broken out as a terribly threatening TE, so the Rams signed Jared Cook in free agency.  Cook’s been more hype than production to this point in his career, but this is definitely a more promising situation than he had in Tennessee.  Back to the running game, a trio of backs looks to fill the hole left by Jackson’s departure to Atlanta.  Daryl Richardson has first shot at being the man, and he wasn’t awful when called upon last season.  I just think his upside is limited.  The guy I seeing as having the most talent in this backfield is Isaiah Pead.  Pead struggled to make an impact in his first year and starts this one with a one game suspension.  He’s got to figure it out.

They don’t get nearly as much attention as division rivals San Francisco and Seattle, but St. Louis has some good things going on defense as well with young fixtures at each level.  Two of them are at defensive end where Chris Long and Robert Quinn combined for 22 sacks last season.  As good as Long has been the last three seasons, I’m excited to see how big a step Quinn takes in his third year.  This is a guy who was a #1 overall talent with a huge ceiling.  I’m also a fan of their third rusher, William Hayes, a guy they were wise to re-sign this offseason.  Michael Brockers got off to a slow start last year with that ankle injury, but he looks like another future star in the middle of the defensive line.  He’s healthy and should make this productive pass rush even more dangerous.  James Laurinaitis, the heart of the defense, has been one of the most reliable MLBs in the league in his four seasons with the Rams.  I’m anxious to see how their new WLB Alec Ogletree fares.  His talent is undeniable, as are his red flags, but if he figures it out, he’ll be a great compliment to Laurinaitis.  I can’t say I’m a fan of either of these two, but Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins were one of the stingiest pair of corners in the league last year.  Finnegan is a proven vet, and Jenkins acclimate himself well in year one.  Rookie TJ McDonald is their best safety, and that’s not necessarily a good thing.

I like where these guys are headed, but unfortunately, they’ve got two Super Bowl contenders within their own division.  I think a winning record would be a great season.

MVP – Sam Bradford

Breakout – Chris Givens

Disappointment – Daryl Richardson

4) Arizona Cardinals

And lastly, a team that hasn’t been very relevant very often.  The ’12 season was yet another forgettable one for the Cardinals with their second five win season in three years.  How much hope is there for these guys in a division with the Hawks, Niners, and up-and-coming Rams? 

It’s a shame they’re in the NFC West because I think Arizona made strides this offseason.  They replaced Ken Whisenhunt with Bruce Arians, the guy who basically coached the Colts last year.  Thanks to the acquisition of Carson Palmer, Arians will be able to stretch the field as he likes to do.  Palmer is pretty much an afterthought at the QB position anymore, but I really like his fit in this offense.  He threw for over 4,000 yards last year in an awful Oakland offense but will have a future HOFer in Larry Fitzgerald and impressive youngster in Michael Floyd to with in Arizona.  Fitzgerald may have fallen off the radar a bit based on the lack of professional QB talent he’s had to work with the last couple of seasons.  Palmer’s the best passer he’s had since Warner in ’09.  Floyd figures to see quite the uptick in output this year due to Palmer’s addition as well as impressive camp that has him in the starting lineup.  Andre Roberts makes for a nice #3 receiver, and Rob Housler is a TE with upside.  The passing game looks good on paper.  The running game on the other hand gets an incomplete grade.  Rashard Mendenhall leaves Pittsburgh for the starting job in Arizona that he’s not getting much competition for based on Ryan Williams’ disappointing inability to get healthy.  Mendenhall isn’t Barry Sanders, but surely he’ll put up more than LaRod Stephens-Howling’s team leading 357 rushing yards last year.  They suffered a blow early on as first round pick and projected left guard Jonathan Cooper sustained a knee injury that may cost him his rookie season.  He was the marquee addition to an offensive line in need of big time help.

On defense there’s a bit of good, a bit of bad, and not much in between.  Patrick Peterson is one of the elite of the elite athletes in the game.  In addition to developing into a shutdown corner, he’s a highlight-making return man, and now is logging some snaps on offense.  The other corner spot isn’t so secure.  Jerraud Powers and Antoine Cason aren’t ideal starters.  Safety is lacking as well.  Yeremiah Bell and Rashad Johnson are uninspiring replacements for Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson, two guys who weren’t exactly in their primes.  Tyrann Mathieu should be given every opportunity to get on the field at free safety and line up with his former LSU teammate Peterson.  Watch for him to make an impact in his first year.  With the switch at DC and in scheme, I look for bigger years from Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett.  Both figure to be freed up more in Todd Bowles’ aggressive defense, resulting in higher sack totals and more impact plays.  Unfortunately, they’re going to be without stud ILB Daryl Washington due to multiple off field issues.  Karlos Dansby returns to Arizona and will be counted on to pick up the slack in Washington’s absence.  I like Kevin Minter to see the most time next to Dansby inside.  A continuous problem for the Cardinals is a lack of sacks from their edge rushers.  Washington led the team in sacks last year with 9, while Sam Acho, Quentin Groves, and O’Brien Schofield combined for 12.  The lack of an edge rushing presence and talent at corner opposite Peterson will be the downfall of this defense.

Again, I like the strides these guys made, but they’re in the wrong division.  8-8 would have to be considered a very successful season.

MVP – Larry Fitzgerald

Breakout – Michael Floyd

Disappointment – Cornerback opposite Peterson

Division MVP – Marshawn Lynch

Division Breakout – Golden Tate

Division Disappointment – Daryl Richardson

2013 NFL Predictions - NFC South

1) New Orleans Saints

For Saints fans, the best thing about the ’12 season is that it’s over.  Bountygate cost New Orleans money, reputation, and probably most importantly, their head coach.  They started the season 0-4 and never recovered. Flip the calendar, and Sean Payton is back on the sidelines.  Will they pick up where they left off last year or, preferably, where they did in ’11?

Drew Brees was still Drew Brees, but even a QB of his caliber suffers when losing a coach with an offensive mind like Payton’s.  Brees attempted the most passes in his career last season but finished 300 yards shy of his previous year’s total.  Still, that was good enough for him to lead the league in yardage for the second straight season.  He’ll do it a third time this year, and I think the primary beneficiary will be Jimmy Graham.  Brees’ tight end is fully healed from the wrist injury that bothered him all of last year, and I believe he’ll break the 100 catch barrier for the first time in his career.  Marques Colston has been one of the more consistently productive receivers in the league over the last three seasons, and the other starter, Lance Moore, is probably the guy Brees trusts most.  Darren Sproles remains one of the game’s more explosive players and the perfect back for this offense.  When the Saints run the ball Mark Ingram figures to get most of the totes.  Even though this is a pass-heavy offense, Ingram has to be considered a huge disappointment so far through two seasons.  Numbers aside, there hasn’t been anything that screams “special” about his game.  The Saints keep trying to phase Pierre Thomas out, but he continues to be their best rusher.

Big yardage isn’t a good thing on the defensive side of the ball, but the Saints defense surrendered a league record 7,042 of them last season.  They were consistent though – 32^nd against the run and 31^st against the pass.  Enter Rob Ryan.  The former Cowboy coordinator is already starting in the hole.  Their lone addition to a poor pass rush, Victor Butler, is already lost for the season with a torn ACL suffered in June, and Will Smith went down with the same malady in the preseason.  That leaves Junior Galette and Martez Wilson as the only remaining rushers, and they’re both inexperienced.  Will the coaching change work wonders for last year’s free agent disappointments Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne?  Neither was productive, let alone impactful.  Cameron Jordan is their most talented defensive player, and he should enjoy the scheme switch, as he’ll revert back to the position he played at Cal.  I like Akiem Hicks at the other spot and think he’ll stand out this season.  Obvious changes were needed in the secondary, and the Saints made two of them.  Cornerback Keenan Lewis was signed in free agency.  He’ll line up opposite Jabari Greer which gives them a nice starting pair but still little to no depth.  They’ll look to remedy that by having their three safeties on the field at the same time as much as possible.  Roman Harper and the disappointing Malcolm Jenkins remain the starters, but first round pick Kenny Vaccaro will see a lot of action, especially in the slot. 

While this is still a bad defense, they will be better than last year’s record setters.  They also have their offensive mastermind back and begin the season with stability that was sorely missing a year ago.  No one has repeated in this division (bad news Falcons fans), and I’m not projecting that to change this season. 

MVP – Drew Brees

Breakout – Junior Galette

Disappointment – Mark Ingram

2) Atlanta Falcons

Three straight trips to the postseason.  One total playoff win.  Last year the Falcons finished with the conference’s best record but were unable to hold on at home against the Niners in the NFC title game.  Will they be better closers this year?

Matt Ryan experienced a breakthrough last season, embracing Dirk Koetter’s offense en route to being the league’s most efficient QB in ’12.  He established career highs in all prominent passing categories and has excellent chemistry with his two stud receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones, who in my opinion form the most dangerous starting receiver duo in the league.  No other team in league boasts two receivers with their ability.  White remains probably the least hyped top receiver in the game, and Jones had his best game in the conference championship against the Niners (11 catches for 182 yards and 2 TDs).  Tony Gonzalez returns for what he promises will be his final season.  He’s still playing at an elite level, finishing second and third in receptions and yardage, respectively, for tight ends.  The Michael Turner era is over, and in his place is the Falcons’ key offseason acquisition, Steven Jackson.  The former Ram rusher gives Atlanta a more respectable backfield threat than they’ve lined up with in recent years and, in my opinion, is the best back they’ve had since Warrick Dunn.  I don’t think we’re going to suddenly see a balanced offense from the Falcons, but Jackson is a much more dynamic and threatening back than was Turner.

Atlanta had one of the best points per game defenses in the league last year, but their inability to consistently get to the passer is a big reason they didn’t reach the big game.  No other playoff team had less sacks (29) than did the Falcons, and I’m not sure they did enough to get better there this offseason.  Osi Umenyiora lands in Atlanta where he’ll be expected to replace John Abraham, but I’ve got to think that’s a step back.  Kroy Biermann is the only other end on the roster that registered a sack last year, which means they’ll definitely need their young guys to step up.  Jonathan Babineaux remains their best interior presence, and I think they’ll miss Vance Walker more than they expect to.  They have a similar situation at linebacker.  Sean Weatherspoon has been their best linebacker but isn’t a tremendous playmaker.  Akeem Dent and Stephen Nicholas, the two other starters, are replaceable.  They could struggle a bit early in the secondary.  They open at New Orleans and play the Rams, Dolphins, and Patriots in their next three games.  Drew Brees and Tom Brady remain game greats, and both the Rams and Dolphins figure to pass more this year than last.  Asante Samuel still racks up interceptions, but Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson, the other veteran corners, left via free agency.  I like Desmond Trufant to be an impact player eventually, but both he and third corner Robert Alford are rookies.  Strong safety William Moore had his best year as a pro in his first under DC Mike Nolan, and Thomas DeCoud makes his biggest impact against the run. 

I go back to the fact that no one has ever repeated in this division.  The Falcons should be even better on offense this year, but I really have concerns about their defense.  Will their pass rush be any better?  Will the secondary survive the early stretch of the schedule?  I think the Falcons make it back to the playoffs but won’t enjoy the bye week luxury this time around.

MVP – Matt Ryan

Breakout – Desmond Trufant

Disappointment – Osi Umenyiora

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A bad start and a worse finish took the luster off Greg Schiano’s first season as head coach.  The Bucs were 1-3 out of the gates and ended up losing 5 of their last 6.  Care to guess what (or who) the biggest reason for that piss poor play may be?

That’s right, Josh Freeman.  The drive-you-to-drink giant human being still struggles to consistently complete more passes than he doesn’t.  In that late season collapse, Freeman failed to throw for at least 250 yards twice and threw 4 INTs in two other games.  GHB enters the final year of his rookie contract, and the Bucs are wisely making him play it out before getting a new deal.  Based on Schiano drafting Mike Glennon, the guy he recruited while at Rutgers, I wouldn’t start stretching out my signing hand if I were Freeman.  Doug Martin on the other hand is quite the ray of sunshine.  All he did as a rookie was finish fifth in the league in rushing, score 12 total TDs, and catch 49 passes.  He’s not going to stop getting the ball, no matter who is at QB, and should have even more room to run this year with both of his starting guards back on the field.  Davin Joseph is a year removed from tearing up his knee, and Carl Nicks is active as well.  Unfortunately, the latter is dealing with a staph infection in the foot that caused him trouble last year, but the Bucs don’t think it will be a major concern.  Vincent Jackson proved to worth the #1 money he received in free agency, and Mike Williams earned himself an extension for being one of the more consistent receivers in the game through his first three seasons as a pro.  Kevin Ogletree was brought in to be the new #3, but neither he nor Tiquan Underwood is terribly inspiring.  I’m worried about tight end.  Luke Stocker is being counted on as the starter as he’s totaled a whopping 28 receptions in his two seasons with the team.  Tom Crabtree was a nice addition in free agency, but he’s ideally a backup to someone better than Stocker and suffered a high ankle sprain in the preseason finale.    

They had the game’s best run defense and the game’s worst pass defense in ‘12.  What do you think they did this offseason?  For starters (not chronologically) they acquired the guy considered the game’s best cover man a year ago.  Darrelle Revis was brought in rather inexpensively and, if healed, gives the Bucs the shutdown presence they desperately need at corner against the QBs in the division. With Eric Wright validating his worthlessness, rookie Johnthan Banks will battle last year’s undrafted jewel Leonard Johnson for the majority of the snaps opposite the Island.  They didn’t stop at cornerback.  Free safety Dashon Goldson was another All Pro acquisition.  His ability to be a factor in the back end of the defense, combined with a functional Revis should free up Mark Barron to play closer (and more comfortably) to the line of scrimmage.  Doug Martin wasn’t the only rookie to make his mark.  Lavonte David isn’t making anyone forget Derrick Brooks just yet, but the first year WLB had arguably a better season than did Defensive ROY, Luke Kuechly.  David made a seamless transition to the pros, leading the team in tackles (especially behind the line of scrimmage) and making plays all over the field.  I continue to call for the end of the Mason Foster at MLB experiment, but he’s back there again this season.  Dekoda Watson and free agent Jonathan Casillas look to log the most snaps at SLB.  Just as I’m disappointed with the situation at QB, I’m not happy with the direction at DE.  The Bucs chose to let Michael Bennett walk for cheap and not pursue any of a number of free agent alternatives.  Adrian Clayborn is returning from a knee injury of his own, and Da’Quan Bowers is currently front and center in Schiano’s dog house.  If you look up “high effort” in the dictionary, Bowers’ name appears in a list of antonyms.  When you consider their head scratching scheming and stunts up front along with the lack of talented pass rushers, the secondary again be heavily tested.  Gerald McCoy had a Pro Bowl year and should be on the verge of becoming one of the game’s best interior players.  Akeem Spence was brought in to man the spot next to him and, like McCoy, is more of a penetrator than run stuffing presence. 

You can have all the talent in the world at other positions, but you must have a top notch QB and be able to put consistent pressure on the opposing QB on defense.  Being uncharacteristically non-cynical, I truly believe the Bucs will be relevant all year and push for a playoff spot, but I think their lack of talent and consistency in the areas mentioned above will be their demise. 

MVP – Doug Martin

Breakout – Mark Barron

Disappointment – Da’Quan Bowers

4) Carolina Panthers

It was a tale of two seasons for the boys in baby blue.  A two INT loss at Tampa kicked off a 2-8 start for the Panthers, but after a second loss to the Bucs (their seventh loss in eight games) Carolina rallied to win five of their last six, scoring 30 or more in four of those games.

Can Cam avoid another bad start?  Will we see any more absurd press conferences?  Is the “me” behavior a thing of the past?  I think losing his Rob Chudzinski to Cleveland is going to be a big blow to Cam’s upside.  Newton is an obvious talent, but Chud’s vertical style maximized the QB’s talents.  Will he fare as well under Mike Shula?  Steve Smith is still their only threat at wide receiver.  The guy is a tall 5-9 and 34 years old but continues to make big plays.  Brandon LaFell is the other starter by default.  Greg Olsen had a heck of a ’12 season, but like Newton, I think he’s going to feel the Chud loss.  How disappointing is their running game?  Let me rephrase that.  How disappointing are their running backs?  Cam led the team with 741 yards on the ground, but the much-hyped combo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart teamed up for just over 1,000 total yards.  Williams hasn’t topped 1,000 yards on his own since ’09, and Stewart, who played in only 9 games last season, is coming off ankle surgery this offseason and starts the year on the PUP list.  I think the coaching change and lack of personnel upgrades is going to make this the biggest test of Cam’s career.  Will he rise above like a champion or mope like a chump?

At least they addressed part of the defense this offseason.  They doubled down Tampa Bay style in the draft, selecting defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short with their first two picks.  I like both of these guys and think they have a chance to wreak some havoc in the division.  Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson are already quite the tandem at end.  Both reached double digit sacks last year, but Hardy looks to be on the verge of big things.  Luke Kuechly got better as the season went along, winning the league’s honor for top defensive newcomer.  While the tackles are nice, the Panthers need more impact plays from Kuechly this season.  He did record 2 INTs, but Johnson had 7 forced fumbles compared to Kuechly’s 0.  They’re good but fragile on the outside.  Jon Beason is no sure thing after playing in only 5 games the last two years combined, and Thomas Davis is only a year removed from being in a similar position.  Here’s where it gets really ugly.  Chris Gamble retired, leaving an even bigger hole in a weak cornerback crop.  Seeing Drayton Florence and Captain Munnerlyn as starters should have Brees, Ryan, and even Freeman licking their chops.  They’re not any better at safety.  Charles Godfrey isn’t very good, and the Raiders didn’t fight to keep Mike Mitchell. 

Cam’s going to have to score a lot because his defense is still going to give up a ton, and that’s not a formula for consistent success.  I see another long year in Carolina blue. 

MVP – Cam Newton

Breakout – Greg Hardy

Disappointment – Jonathan Stewart

Division MVP – Drew Brees

Division Breakout – Mark Barron

Division Disappointment – Da’Quan Bowers

2013 NFL Predictions - NFC North

1) Green Bay Packers

The Packers had double digit wins for the fourth straight year, but the ’12 season reeked of disappointment, especially being dominated by the 49ers in the playoffs.  Has the Packer magic worn off, or are the former champs under the radar heading into ’13?

He didn’t win his second MVP last year, but I still list Aaron Rodgers as the best player in the game.  Quarterback solidifies itself more and more each year as the most important position in the sport, and there’s not a better combo of arm, legs, guts, and intelligence in it.  What’s even more impressive is how Rodgers has become the game’s best while having no threat of a run game the last three seasons.  With the drafting of Eddie Lacy, the Packers are now dangerous on the ground.  I have no delusions that they’ll become a balanced offense, but adding a talented big back now forces defenses to respect the run.  When Rodgers does drop back to pass he won’t be looking for Greg Jennings anymore.  After seven years in Green Bay, Jennings has joined the rival Vikings.  That said, I don’t expect the passing game to miss a beat.  Randall Cobb exploded for 80 catches and 9 total TDs in ’12 and, not counting Rodgers, is the team’s most dangerous weapon.  James Jones figured it out and had a career year, doubling his previous season TD high of seven.  I think he has another strong season.  Jordy Nelson fought injuries most of the year and wasn’t the vertical playmaker he had been in ’11.  He’s slowed by an injury this preseason, so his will be a situation to monitor.  Jermichael Finley might be this year’s Jones.  Reports have him and Rodgers clicking better than ever.  We shall see.  Only the Cardinals’ excuse for an offensive line surrendered more sacks than the Packers last year, and Rodgers is one of the most mobile (not necessarily fastest) QBs in the game.  Some of that is on Rodgers.  I saw him try to make too much happen at times and hold the ball longer than he should have.  He wasn’t as decisive as he’d been the last two seasons.  The rest (and most) of the blame goes to the offensive line.  Sadly, they’re not off to a good start this year, as Bryan Bulaga is done with an ACL injury.  The fact that Mike McCarthy is starting a rookie on Rodgers’ blind side should tell you all you need to know about his opinion of Marshall Newhouse.  The guards flip flopped.  Josh Sitton moved to the left side, and TJ Lang moved to the right due in part to how well Sitton did at left guard in the Pro Bowl.

It won’t matter how good the Packers offense is if the defense doesn’t step up, especially considering the high odds of whoever wins the NFC having to go through Seattle and/or San Francisco.  Lacy gets the most attention from this year’s draftees, but Datone Jones, the guy picked first by the Packers, has a chance to be as impactful on the other side of the ball.  Green Bay tried and failed the last two offseasons to fill the hole left by Cullen Jenkins.  I believe adding Jones addresses the hole.  Projecting as a force against both the pass and the run, I love lining him up next to BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett.  The former is coming off what has to be a disappointing season, as he wasn’t the impactful player from the previous two seasons.  I’ve got to think adding Jones helps that.  At linebacker, Clay Matthews remains the Packers playmaker.  Impressively, he was able to tally 13 sacks despite the Packers not having any other legit pass rushers.  Nick Perry’s rookie season was basically a lost one, as he was unimpressive in the six games he did suite up.  They’ve got to get a lot more from him this season, and preseason reports have been positive.  The Packers are a solid three deep at corner with Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, and Sam Shields.  I like Shield and think he’s in line for a big contract real soon.  Charles Woodson was declining, but they didn’t work hard enough to upgrade the position.  I’m big on Morgan Burnett at strong safety but am holding my breath on MD Jennings. 

The Packers didn’t have a lot going for them last year, but the threat of a run game should work wonders this year.  I think they’re better defensively but still have to show that they can bang heads with Seattle and San Fran and emerge victorious. 

MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Breakout – Datone Jones
Disappointment – Jordy Nelson

2) Chicago Bears

Last year’s Bears owned the dubious distinction of being the league’s only 10 win team not to make the playoffs.  Their downfall was a 1-5 stretch from November through December, all games against teams that made the playoffs. 

Defense isn’t the problem in Chicago.  The Bears were able to make a run at the playoffs despite having the league’s 28^th rated offense in terms of yards per game.  Enter Marc Trestman, the new head coach of the Chicago Bears.  The reputed offensive coordinator / QB coach is the best offensive mind this team has seen in quite some time.  I’m intrigued by this situation.  Jay Cutler is one of the more off-putting players in the game.  He’s rude.  He hits his teammates.  He’s just not a real friendly guy.  While he’ll never be confused with Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, Cutler does own a 34-22 record as QB of the Bears.  He’s got great chemistry with Brandon Marshall, and I think Alshon Jeffrey has a chance to be a threatening #2.  Free agent signing Martellus Bennett is a huge upgrade over Kellen Davis and his pathetic 19 receptions last season.  Matt Forte could be in for a career year, as I believe Trestman will make better use of his skills set.  In addition to Trestman, the Bears upgraded the offense by signing left tackle Jermon Bushrod and drafting right guard Kyle Long.  They’re still a below average unit up front, but both the on-field and off-field additions should dramatically improve upon last year’s 28^th place ranking. 

For the first time in 14 years the Bears will suit up without Brian Urlacher as a member of the team.  The eight time Pro Bowler retired after flirting with the idea of signing with another team this offseason.  Who replaces Urlacher?  Free agent DJ Williams and draftee Jon Bostic will replace him on the roster, but his presence will be sorely missed.  Lance Briggs returns on the weak side for what seems like his 50^th year with the Bears.  He’s still productive, but I like Khaseem Greene as a guy to bring along slowly as his eventual replacement.  Julius Peppers is still the best player on defense.  I’m not sure it’s fair to consider him underrated, but due to his non-spotlight-seeking personality, I think Peppers goes a bit under the radar for as great of a player he is.  He’s missed just 6 games in his 11 year career (4 of those coming in his rookie year) and is consistently one of the league leaders in sacks.  I like the potential of Corey Wootton and Shea McClellin as complimentary pass rushers.  Henry Melton is one of the game’s best interior pass rushers and is a handful with or without Peppers’ presence.  Most teams would love to have a secondary as reliable as Chicago’s.  They’re not incredibly flashy, but Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are easily one of the best corner combos in the league.  Just ask Aaron Rodgers. 

I like the Trestman hire and believe it will be a much more productive (and stable) situation on offense than they’ve known, especially compared to what they were under the genius that was Mike Martz.  Unintentionally sadistically, I see these Bears team as another double digit winning, fringe playoff team. 

MVP – Matt Forte

Breakout – Shea McClellin

Disappointment – DJ Williams

3) Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson put the Vikings on his back last year and was reasons 1, 2, and 3 why this team made the playoffs.  If I played the word association game with this team, a negative thought would come to mind, but this is a franchise that has made the playoffs three of the last five seasons, which is more than the Cowboys and Bears combined. 

If you didn’t already know, MVPeterson showed himself to be an absolute freak last year, winning the league rushing title in Usain Bolt style, all while coming back from a late ’11 ACL injury.  Dude is insane.  He’ll have to produce another MVP caliber season for this team to have any shot at making the postseason.  He’s the Miguel Cabrera of the NFL.  Unfortunately for the Vikings, they’ve been held back, not elevated, by the play of their QB, Christian Ponder.  I love Ponder and have an obvious bias, but he has an admittedly limited skill set that will keep the Vikings from being an elite team.  They signed Greg Jennings, who is the best pure receiver (non-Harvin tpe) they’ve had since Randy Moss, and took Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round of the draft.  If you look up ‘security blanket’ in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Kyle Rudolph.  Ponder relied on him heavily last season in the red zone.  If you consider his chemistry with Rudolph and the additions of Jennings and Patterson, you’ve got to like Ponder’s chances of showing progress this season.

This defense isn’t as feared as it once was.  That’s not a shot at Jared Allen, the team’s leading pass rusher who notched “only” 12 sacks a year after tallying 20.  They simply lack any presence outside of Rodeo and will struggle to consistently hang with the Packers, Bears, and possibly Lions.  Brian Robison and Everson Griffen had fine years as well, but they obviously benefit from Allen’s presence.  Sharrif Floyd fell in Minny’s lap in the draft.  I like their depth in the middle with him, Kevin Williams, Letroy Guion, and Fred Evans.  I don’t like what’s going on at linebacker.  Chad Greenway isn’t fully recovered from knee surgery, and free agent signing Desmond Bishop can’t get healthy.  Instability at linebacker may be their downfall.  I’m not quite sure why the Vikings got rid of Antoine Winfield.  He was easily their best corner, despite being a decrepit 36 years old.  They did however take my favorite corner in the draft, Xavier Rhodes.  He and Ryan Cook will be tested heavily, especially within the division.  Harrison Smith had a strong rookie season, but they continue to lack at the other safety position. 

They were overachievers as a team last season thanks to an MVP season from Peterson, and I think he can come close to that kind of year again.  They’ll absolutely need it if they hope to be playing again in January. 

MVP – Adrian Peterson

Breakout – Xavier Rhodes

Disappointment – Desmond Bishop

4) Detroit Lions

There’s just something about this team that screams “loser” to me.  Great individual talent but a mess of a team.  How else can you explain a roster like this having a 4-12 record last season? 

Matthew Stafford finished second to Drew Brees is total passing yards last year but was a disappointing 19^th in touchdowns with 20.  The fact that Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for more touchdowns that the guy who was second in the league in yardage should say something.  Can Stafford produce when it matters?  Not to discount Stafford, but a great bit of his yardage comes via the beast of a man that is Calvin Johnson.  Easily the biggest downfield threat in football, Johnson, not Stafford, is the reason the Lions are a productive on this side of the ball as they are.  Ryan Broyles, he of the dual ACL injuries, is expected to rise to the task of #2 receiver.  I’ve never been a huge Reggie Bush fan, but this has to be the perfect fit for the former ‘Phin.  In this offense, he has a chance to be as productive in the passing game as he was in his first two years as a pro (88 receptions in ’06 and 73 receptions in ’07).  Calvin’s obviously the man, but don’t be surprised when Bush finishes second on the team in receptions, by a wide margin.  Mikel Leshoure led the team in rushing in ’12, but I think Joique Bell will end up being more of a factor on offense this season when (not if) Bush misses time with an injury.

The Lions have been a disappointment on this side of the ball as well, but the blame cannot be placed on the two men in the middle.  Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly may be the most dominant pair of defensive tackles in the game.  Farily closed the gap between the two significantly last season and may prove to be Suh’s equal before all is said and done in ’13.  First round pick Ziggy Ansah replaces free agent Cliff Avril at defensive end and gives them a raw, albeit athletic pass rusher.  Jason Jones is a steady, if not spectacular presence on the other side.  I like Stephen Tulloch, but I think the lack of playmaking potential at linebacker will hurt the Lions this year.  They got quite a bit better in the secondary with the additions of Darius Slay and Glover Quin.  I liked Slay more than his MSU teammate Johnthan Banks and think he’s going to be a solid cover man across from Chris Houston.  Quinn is a similarly strong pairing with Louis Delmas. 

Aside from ’11, which was their one playoff season that ended in forgettable fashion, this is a team that has gone 12-36 under Jim Schwartz.  Unless they can repeat the 10-6 season of ’11, the Schwartz won’t be with Detroit in ’14.  I just don’t get a good feeling at all about this team and have to place them fourth.

MVP – Calvin Johnson

Breakout – Joique Bell

Disappointment – Matthew Stafford

Division MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Division Breakout – Datone Jones

Division Disappointment – Matthew Stafford

NFL Picks - Week 1 - Thursday Kickoff Edition

It’s FINALLY here.  Jameis Winston has already won the Heisman with his performance at Pitt, and the Bucs have yet to lose.  Life is good. 

Just to make sure I get them all on the record, here’s my pick for tonight’s opener:

Ravens @ Broncos

What should be another fabulous season kicks off with Denver’s rematch against the defending champs.  Baltimore keeps it close, but Peyton gets his revenge and throws three TDs (something he did in six of eight home games last year), two of them to Demaryius Thomas.    

Broncos 27

Ravens 24

2013 NFL Predictions - NFC East

1) Washington Redskins

The Redskins were relevant last year for the first time in a while.  A 10-6 record and playoff appearance gave fans a reason to be excited, but spending the offseason following the medical reports of their franchise QB as well as the back and forth sniping between said QB and Mike Shanahan tarnished that a bit.    

RGIII had a spectacular first season and topped Andrew Luck for the annual top rookie honor, but I’m sure he would trade that award to not be rehabbing a torn ACL as he heads into his sophomore campaign.  He was held out of preseason action but is reportedly ready to go; a fact that received a bit of media attention this preseason.  Unless he changes his style of play (namely knowing when to give up on a play) I worry that the volume of hits he takes will limit his explosiveness and possibly cost him games.  I think we’ll see a good bit of Kirk Cousins this season, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.  Alfred Morris goes under the radar, but all he did as a rookie was finish second in the league in rushing behind Adrian Peterson as leader of the league’s most productive ground game.  Roy Helu is more than capable of taking over the load should he be needed.  I don’t love their receivers as a group, but I do think Pierre Garcon is in line for a really big year.  He’s finally over his foot issues and is unquestionably RGIII’s primary target.  Behind him Josh Morgan, Leonard Hankerson, and Santana Moss are containable.  Fred Davis is back from his Achilles injury and looked good this preseason.  He could end up RGIII’s second favorite target behind Garcon. 

Washington left a bit to be desired on this side of the ball, especially when it came to stopping the pass.  Only the Bucs and Saints surrendered more yards through the air than did the Skins.  DeAngelo Hall is the most overrated corner in the game, and Josh Wilson isn’t anything special.  Washington took David Amerson in the draft, and it won’t take him long to become the best corner on the team.  The theme is repeated at safety where Philip Thomas should rise above the mediocre Brandon Meriweather and Reed Doughty.  Everyone has injuries, but the Skins losing Brian Orakpo in week two for the year was a crushing blow for this defense.  That left Ryan Kerrigan as the lone pass rushing threat, in an otherwise non-threatening defense.  London Fletcher again led the team in tackles and looks like he can play another 20 years.  Getting a healthy Orakpo would help any defense, but also having a healthy Adam Carriker and better talent in the secondary could help turn things around on defense.  

I saw what the Shanahans did with a rookie QB, a rookie RB, and without their best pass rusher.  It would be foolish to think they won’t be able to handle adversity, such as RGIII missing some time (which I think will happen).  The Redskins repeat.  

MVP – RGIII

Breakout – David Amerson

Disappointment – DeAngelo Hall

2) Dallas Cowboys

With three straight third place finishes, Jerry Jones has to be as antsy as ever for his investment to start paying dividends.  As a result, Jason Garrett enters the season on a hotter seat than any other coach in the league.

I don’t think there’s a QB in the NFL that draws as much “hate” as Tony Romo.  You’d think he was Sanchez or Locker with the amount of criticism the guy gets.  He’s easily the best QB they’ve had since Troy Aikman, but being winless in the postseason since ’09 almost always comes back to (fairly or unfairly) the guy under center.  Speaking of center, first round reach Travis Frederick is the only addition they’ve made to a poor offensive line.  Tyron Smith didn’t progress last year, and Doug Free regressed even more, if that’s possible.  Give Tom Brady and Peyton Manning this protection, and they’ll start hearing boos too.  Jason Witten may still be Romo’s favorite target, but Dez Bryant showed late last season that he’s on his way to becoming one of the game’s elite receivers by totaling 50 receptions and 10 TDs in his last 8 games.  Miles Austin has become a forgotten man as hamstring issues have limited his explosiveness the last couple of seasons.  You could do a lot worse than him as your #2 receiver.  In Dallas, the running game takes a back seat to the passing game.  That will continue to be the case if DeMarco Murray can’t put together a complete season.  There’s talent but no experience behind him on the depth chart.

Monte Kiffin returns to the NFL as the Cowboys defensive coordinator.  With Kiffin comes a switch to a 4-3 front, but much of last year’s base personnel returns.  How will they adjust to the new scheme?  How aggressive will this scheme be?  DeMarcus Ware is a factor in any scheme, so he should have no trouble adjusting.  Anthony Spencer on the other hand will be one to watch.  Will he reach double digit sacks again?  Jason Hatcher is a force in the middle, but Jay Ratliff has been in a decline both on and off the field.  Bruce Carter should thrive at WLB being able to show off more of his speed and pursuit in that role.  Sean Lee is a force when healthy, but he missed most of last year with a foot injury.  They’re good at corner with the veteran Brandon Carr and second year player Morris Claiborne.  Like Bryant, Claiborne’s play improved down the stretch last year.  My biggest concern about this defense is at safety where they should be tested quite a bit within the division.  Barry Church is returning from an Achilles injury, and Will Allen is an uninspiring veteran signed this offseason.

I’m still in Romo’s corner, but the Cowboys can’t afford to have another dismal year on the offensive line, nor can they remain at the bottom of the league in rushing.  I think those will be the key reasons they don’t win the division.

MVP – Tony Romo

Breakout – Bruce Carter

Disappointment – Anthony Spencer  

3) New York Giants

The Giants missed the postseason for the third time in three seasons, falling horribly apart in the second half by losing five of their last eight games.  An offseason has passed, but questions still remain regarding Coughlin’s crew.   

It’s no coincidence that the Giants’ season headed south when Eli Manning’s play deteriorated.  I’d like to blame it on a lack of weapons, but even with Hakeem Nicks struggling with injuries throughout the season, he had the dynamic Victor Cruz and skilled Martellus Bennett at full go and a running game that was still one of the league’s most productive.  Does he bounce back, or is this the Eli that Giants should expect to see in ’13?  Cruz got paid and can now focus on putting up a third straight 80+ catch and 9+ score season.  I’m worried about Nicks, but second year receiver Rueben Randle is ready to jump in and prove himself.  Brandon Myers replaces Bennett at tight end, but I don’t think that’s an upgrade.  David Wilson takes over as the primary ball carrier, and his workload increased when Andre Brown broke his leg in preseason action.  Whether he’s doing it for motivational purposes or not, Coach Coughlin is not happy with Wilson’s progress as a pass blocker.  The Giants will struggle if Wilson isn’t able to rise to the occasion as the feature back, but I think he’ll be fine. 

How worried are Giants fans about JPP?  Their best pass rusher underwent back surgery this offseason and won’t be on the field when the Giants take on the Cowboys to open the regular season.  Pierre-Paul exploded in ’11 with 16.5 sacks but fell back to earth with ten less in ’12.  They’ll be in bad shape if he can’t be his usual terrifying self seeing as how the Giants as a team had 15 less sacks in ’12 than they did the previous year.  Osi Umenyiora finally got his way and is out of New York, so he’s no longer an option.  The Giants will need Justin Tuck to regain his ’10 form after two straight disappointing seasons.  Mathias Kiwankua will get his wish of moving back to defensive end, and they’ll need him to be ‘the guy’ until JPP returns.  Cullen Jenkins and Johnathan Hankins are large (literally and figuratively) additions to the interior, but unfortunately, the Giants didn’t get any better at linebacker this offseason.  Keith Rivers, Mark Herzlich, and either Spencer Paysinger or Jacquian Williams will be the starters.  The secondary may be worse.  Corey Webster stunk last season, Prince Amukamara hasn’t come anywhere close to meeting expectations, and Terrell Thomas is trying to come back from last year’s ACL injury.  The more they let Antrel Rolle play at safety, the better off they’ll be.  Stevie Brown becomes a starter with Kenny Phillips joining the Eagles.

The fact that there’s no clear leader in this division plays into the Giants favor, but I worry that the defense won’t be able to make up for any offensive shortcomings, especially as long as JPP is out. 

MVP – Eli Manning

Breakout – David Wilson

Disappointment – Jason Pierre-Paul

4) Philadelphia Eagles

The most intriguing team may be the one expected by many to finish dead last.  The Chip Kelly experiment is underway, and everyone is wondering just how well his offensive style will do in the pros.  Unfortunately, it looks like the other side of the ball may be their undoing.

Dog Killer won the starting job over Nick Foles, but given the former’s health and performance in recent years, the latter should stay loose.  If DK can stay healthy he’s got a chance at a huge bounce back season in Kelly’s up tempo offense.  The one guy they’ll need to bounce back most is running back LeSean McCoy.  After scoring a whopping 17 TDs on the ground in ’11, McCoy totaled an extremely disappointing 2 in ’12.  I think he bounces back this year; maybe not all the way to 17 TDs but significantly nonetheless.  Bryce Brown showed himself to be capable of handling the load in McCoy’s absence and figures to be a regular part of Kelly’s offense.  DeSean Jackson is a player who should thrive in this offense.  He’s a dynamic talent whose skill set Kelly is sure to take advantage of.  Jeremy Maclin’s season is over before it started after an ACL tear in training camp which will have the politically incorrect Riley Cooper starting in his place.  There’s good news up front where the offensive line should be much improved over last year.  Jason Peters appears healthy at left tackle, and Jason Kelce returns after missing nearly all of last season.  Getting those two back is huge, as was adding the athletic Lane Johnson in the first round of the draft.

Here’s where I expect to see problems.  Philly was one of the worst teams in the league in points allowed last season, and judging by the way things went this preseason, this year looks like a repeat.  The Eagles will be running a new defense with quite a bit of new personnel.  Rarely does that work seamlessly.  I like Fletcher Cox who should fit well next to Isaac Sopoaga up front.  Their top pass rushers look to be Trent Cole and Connor Barwin.  Both are coming off largely disappointing seasons where they each tallied three sacks after posting at least 11 in ’11 (Barwin had 11.5).  Brandon Graham has yet to meet expectations but remains in the mix.  Second year LB Mychal Kendricks should get a chance to display his versatility, but I wonder if DeMeco Ryans will regress again back in a 3-4 set?  Here lies the biggest mess.  Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher replace Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  While the latter two were disappointments in Philly’s odd scheme, I’m not sure the new duo is going to have a ton of success against teams like Dallas and New York who go vertical regularly.  Free agent signing Kenny Phillips didn’t even make the final cut, so Nate Allen and another free agent, Patrick Chung, will be the safeties.  Not promising.

I think the Eagles will score a lot of points on offense but surrender even more on defense.  It will be entertaining, but I don’t expect them to win many more than the four they won last year. 

MVP – LeSean McCoy

Breakout – Mychal Kendricks

Disappointment – Trent Cole

Division MVP – Tony Romo

Division Breakout – David Wilson

Division Disappointment – Jason Pierre-Paul