Who's Next?

Black Monday was a happy day in the Tampa Bay area as both head coach Greg Schiano and general manager Mark Dominik were axed.  After going 11-21 in two years under Schiano and 28-52 since ’09 with Dominik as GM (with no playoff appearances and just 1 winning season), the Bucs will be filling the two most important off-field positions in the organization at the same time for the second time in 5 years. 

Franchises generally attempt to avoid making the same mistakes, so after two consecutive whiffs on defensive-minded coaches with no professional head coaching (or at least coordinating) experience, I think at least one of those two factors is sure to change this time around. 

Lovie Smith is getting a lot of mention today as an early candidate, but I’m hesitant.  What defensive advances would he implement to improve/replace his outdated Tampa 2 concept-heavy scheme?  The personnel in the three key spots (McCoy, David, and Barron) is there, but the game has changed.  Who would he bring in to run the offense?  Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford is a name that has been mentioned, but again, the cynical in me has his doubts.  I respect Tedford’s accomplishments at the collegiate level, but aside from the uniquely-gifted Aaron Rodgers, none of his other claims to fame have become professional superstars – Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller. 

When I began to grow tired of the Schiano era, the first candidate upon which I fixated was former Cardinals head coach and current Chargers offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt.  There’s a lot to like about the Georgia native.  I prefer head coaches who have variety in their background.  Whisenhunt has coached special teams and tight ends in addition to being an offensive coordinator and head coach.  He’s coached in the Super Bowl for both conferences. 

He groomed a young Ben Roethlisberger to a Super Bowl title and worked with a veteran Kurt Warner to reach another big dance.  His latter Arizona years were marred by “quarterbacks” like Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall, Kevin Kolb, and Ryan Lindley; all QBs with whom no one has won.  I don’t think it’s any coincidence at all that Philip Rivers is having a career year just one season removed from folks wondering what, if any, the former Wolfpack QB had left.  The Chargers thrived offensively with a rookie Keenan Allen, an old Antonio Gates, a small Danny Woodhead, and limited receivers in Eddie Royal and Vincent Brown.  Like Rivers, running back Ryan Mathews experienced a career year under Whisenhunt.  Mathews played in all 16 regular season games for the first time in his career, and his 1,255 rushing yards were a career high. 

I don’t believe Mike Glennon is the future at QB in Tampa, but Whisenhunt would know just about as well as anyone.  One bit of his personal history that stood out to me was his somewhat controversial decision to go with the veteran Warner over the young Matt Leinart as QB of the Cardinals in ’08.  That tough decision paid off as the Cardinals made it to the Super Bowl that year.  Whisenhunt’s track record suggests he will get the best out of whoever lines up behind center, and with a healthy Doug Martin and Mike Williams to go along with Vincent Jackson, it would be hard to say that the Bucs have fewer weapons than the Chargers.  I still think the Bucs are a dynamic slot receiver from reaching the next level offensively, but the cupboard isn’t bare.

The same can be said for the defense.  While pass rush help is an obvious need, they’re not inept in the defensive line interior, at linebacker, or in the secondary.  I don’t know who Whisenhunt would have in mind for defensive coordinator, but his former running mate in Arizona, Ray Horton is a guy I’d support.  Horton has yet to follow Rob Chudzinski out the door in Cleveland, so while he may not even be an option in the end, he’s a proven commodity at this level.

Now more than ever teams will go only as far as their quarterbacks take them, so whoever ends up as the next head coach of the Buccaneers has a tough decision on their hands.  Do you try to strike gold with Mike Glennon, or do you (more wisely) look for your guy in the draft?  Teddy Bridgewater will surely be off the board by #7 and so may Fresno State’s Derek Carr.  Since I can’t draft Jameis Winston this year (or start tanking already), the name who intrigues me most is UCF’s Blake Bortles.  As I’ve mentioned many times in the past, the first thing I look for in a QB is his ability make quick decisions.  Bortles gets a gold star in this area and combines that intangible with coveted tangibles such as his size, arm, and mobility.  The junior passer has yet to even declare for the draft, but since I’m playing fantasy GM, he’s my early pick at #7 for the Bucs.

Getting a coach of Whisenhunt’s caliber along with a true prospect at the most important position in professional sports is a great way to turn around a 4-12 club.  We’ll find out which way the Glazers go in due time, but speculating in the meantime is enough to help forget about those 11-21 and 28-52 records, at least for a little while.  

NFL Picks - Week 8

Season Record – 62-42

Struggling after a very disappointing 7-7 last week.  I’m having a tough time getting a consistent read on the ups and downs of a lot of teams this year.  One team I’m not having any trouble figuring out is the Bucs.  With Thursday night’s loss, they’re 0-7 with a loss at Seattle on the agenda next week.  Whether or not the players have quit on Schiano (I believe they have) this is an unrecoverable situation in my opinion, and it’s time for the Glazers to start over.  This includes Mark Dominik, the GM whose tenure may not be as repugnant as Schiano’s but features plenty of failures of its own.  Mike Glennon isn’t the answer to any question I’m interested in asking, so QB should be at the top of the team’s on-field needs.  That’s replacements at the three most important positions – Quarterback, Head Coach, and General Manager.  More on that later.  On with the picks.

Can I get a free W for the Thursday game even though I didn’t make an official pick?  You really think I would have taken Tampa Bay?

Cowboys @ Lions

I actually think this is a good spot for the Lions.  Will Dallas win three in a row?  DeMarco Murray is doubtful.  A rookie from Saginaw Valley State will start at strong safety.  I’m looking forward to the Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant back and forth, and I think the Lions win by at least 7. 

Browns @ Chiefs

Jason Campbell gets the start for Cleveland against the league’s top ranked defense thus far.  Kansas City is going to lose eventually, but I just can’t see it happening at home this week against a reeling Browns team and with the way Alex Smith has taken care of the football.  Chiefs by 17.  Hali and Houston combine for 4 sacks. 

Dolphins @ Patriots

Is there a chance the Patriots slip up at home against a reeling Dolphins team and let the Jets sniff the division lead?  I can’t see it.  Even without Aqib Talib to shadow Mike Wallace, I think the Patriots can effectively limit Ryan Tannehill.  Danny Amendola looks good to go this week, so Tom Brady will have he and Gronk on the field together for the first time.  It’s another ugly one, but the home team wins. 

Bills @ Saints

Sean Payton and the Saints have had two weeks to focus on their faults after that heartbreaking last second loss at the Patriots.  In their way stand the somewhat surprising Bills.  Yes they’re 3-4, but they beat Miami on the road last week and nearly beat the Bengals the weak before with Thad Lewis at QB, banged up running backs, and a depleted defense.  I won’t be surprised if this is close for a while, but I expect the Saints to take control in the second half.

Giants @ Eagles

This is what I was talking about when I said I had no clue about some teams.  I can’t figure out the Eagles.  I liked them last week against Dallas, and while their defense showed up for the first time, their offense laid an egg.  They already beat the Giants on the road in week five.  With Dog Killer back under center, I give the edge to the home team, but then again, what do I know?

49ers v. Jaguars (in London)

I don’t care where they play this one.  The Jags don’t win it.  San Fran may sleep walk through this one making it a lot closer on the scoreboard than it should be, but Jacksonville will still have a 0 in the W column tomorrow morning. 

Jets @ Bengals

Here’s one I’m really interested in watching today.  The Jets look like they may give the Patriots a run the rest of the way, and a win on the road against a Bengals team who plays well at home would be a big statement.  I think their defense keeps them in this one throughout, but Cincinnati gets it done again at home.  Bengals by 4; giving them a very quiet 6-2 record. 

Steelers @ Raiders

Look out, Pittsburgh has won two in a row.  They’re back!  Not so fast.  Wins against the Jets and struggling defending champs don’t tell me a ton.  I’m again going with the home team (this week’s theme apparently).  The Raiders are coming off their bye.  They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Steelers, and Darren McFadden is reportedly looking sharp.  Raiders by 10. 

Redskins @ Broncos

Is it just me, or did it look like something was wrong with Peyton Manning in last week’s homecoming loss?  His passes looked very “uncrisp” throughout the game, especially in the second half.  Sure it was only Denver’s first loss of the year, but they haven’t exactly looked like Super Bowl material in their last three games - @ Dallas, v. Jacksonville, and @ Indy.  The Redskins had their best offensive output of the season last week against the Bears, putting up 45 points in earning their second win.  They’ll need at least that many this week.  144.  That’s the number of points the Broncos have scored in their three games against the other NFC East teams.  Sticking with the averages, Denver scores 48 today.

Falcons @ Cardinals

This Falcons team sucks, but the Cardinals have that trend of teams facing Seattle losing the following week going against them as well.  They’ve had a little longer to heal up for this one, and will, in my opinion, be able to shut down a Falcons offense missing both Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Andre Ellilngton has a big day for the Cardinals. 

Packers @ Vikings

Here’s the first game where I’m not picking the home team, and they won’t kick off until Sunday night.  This could be a sneaky spot for the Packers to slip up, but I expect them to be focused to stay atop the division, especially if Detroit wins earlier in the day as I expect them to do.  I don’t see Aaron Rodgers having a down game when he has a chance to beat up on the vulnerable Vikings and give his team a fourth straight win and 5-2 record before heading back home for a big MNF matchup against the Bears. 

Seahawks @ Rams

I don’t care if Sam Bradford didn’t tear up his knee.  The Rams weren’t beating Seattle.  Pad up Kellen Clemens.  So not only will the Rams lose this week, by rule of the Seattle trend, they’ll lose next week at home against the Titans. 

NFL Picks - Week 7

Season Record – 55-35

Running a little slow this morning, but it was well worth it.  The young man in the picture above put on a hell of a show last night and will be playing on Sunday soon enough.  Go Noles! 

Bucs @ Falcons

Two hugely disappointing teams.  Julio Jones is out for the year, and even if Roddy White is able to suit up, he’s far from full strength.  The Falcons defense is putrid, and the Bucs are running schemes that don’t suit their player strengths.  Going with the better of two bad teams in a who-really-cares tossup. 

Bengals @ Lions

To me Cincinnati is a disappointing 4-2.  They have yet to beat any handily, and that includes poor teams such as Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Buffalo.  They go on the road to face a Lions team that should have Calvin Johnson active.  I don’t trust the Bengals.  Prove me wrong Cincinnati.

Bills @ Dolphins

Miami went into their bye losers of their last two games, but the Bills are exactly what they need to get back on track.  If they can’t control Thad Lewis on their home turf, the Dolphins don’t belong in any postseason conversation.

Patriots @ Jets

It looks like this will finally be the week that Gronk gets back on the field.  New England is banged up on both sides of the ball, but I just can’t pick an upset here.  Even without Jerod Mayo and probably Aqib Talib, the Patriots should be able to scheme Geno Smith into a couple of turnovers and win another ugly one. 

Cowboys @ Eagles

In the division that doesn’t make any sense, I’m taking what I believe is the worse team. 

Bears @ Redskins

I’m not sure I exactly trust the Bears just yet, but I know I don’t trust the Redskins.  RGIII is way off, and that defense blows.  Bears win on the road.  Big day from Forte. 

Rams @ Panthers

A week after running through the Texans, the Rams get a reality check in Carolina.  I really like what the Panthers are doing on defense, and as long as Cam doesn’t make critical mistakes with the football, the home team will get the win. 

Chargers @ Jaguars

If I were a Chargers fan I’d be a little worried about this one.  East coast early game against a nothing-to-lose winless Jags team.  How well San Diego is able to contain Justin Blackmon will go a long way in determining this one.  I like what I’ve seen from Philip Rivers, and I’m counting on him playing like a veteran and escaping with a hard-fought 3 point win.

49ers @ Titans

Jake Locker will be back under center for the Titans, but I’m not sure it will matter if San Francisco’s defense brings it’s A-game.  I think this is a sneaky spot where Tennessee could pull off the upset if Colin Kapernick and the 49ers offense struggles to generate first downs early.  I’m counting on Jim Harbaugh having his team focused.  After this one at Tennessee, they play at Jacksonville before a week nine bye.  They can’t afford to lose games like this and slip further behind the Seahawks. 

Browns @ Packers

Even with his weapons dropping like flies, I can’t go against Aaron Rodgers at home.  Brandon Weeden is really struggling, so the Packers might not miss Clay Matthews this week.  Green Bay has yet to have a statement game this season, but the Browns may be just what the doctor ordered. 

Texans @ Chiefs

Welcome to the big show Case Keenum.  With Matt Schaub unable to go, the Texans turn to the former Houston Cougar to halt their four game losing streak.  I was never really high on the Texans, but I didn’t see them as a team that would lose four straight, regardless of opponent.  Now they get to travel to the loudest football environment outside of Seattle with a rookie QB against one of the league’s best defenses.  If the Texans’ losing streak isn’t intact after this one, the NFL is truly rigged. 

Ravens @ Steelers

Neither team is where they need or want to be.  Both struggle to put together scoring drives on offense, and neither resembles their reputation on defense.  I think it’s too early to completely bury the Steelers.  I don’t think they’re going to put together a meaningful winning streak, but I do think they get it done today at home against the Ravens.   

Broncos @ Colts

Guys like Peyton Manning who are among the elite of the elite are always looking for new incentives, reasons to excel.  I think he and Broncos play with a purpose and overwhelm the Colts.  Von Miller will be back, and he’ll make an impact early on.  Broncos by 20. 

Vikings @ Giants

When the Giants finally get their first win it will happen without me picking them.  As bad as they are on both sides of the ball, I can’t responsibly find a reason to pick them.  In that light I can’t exactly list Josh Freeman being under center as a huge shot in the arm for the Vikings.  Still, he should be an improvement over Ponder and Cassel.  I’m counting on a huge game in prime time from Adrian Peterson – 200 yards and 3 TDs. 

NFL Picks - Week 6

Season Record – 46-30

A look around the league reveals three undefeated teams and four winless ones.  Denver and New Orleans look like the real deal, while most are a bit skeptical of the Chiefs.  The Giants are 0-6 after a Thursday’s loss to the Bears, and the Bucs, Steelers, and Jags have combined for 13 losses.  How good are the good teams, and how bad are the bad ones?  I think one of the undefeated teams gets a scare this week, while two of the winless ones finally break into the W column.

Eagles @ Bucs

With no Dog Killer under center, the Eagles offense will be less of a guessing game this week.  I believe the Bucs defense can limit Nick Foles and company enough for their offense to take advantage of a defense that’s 30^th in the league in points allowed per game.

Bengals @ Bills

Cincinnati is slow to convert doubters, but this game could go a long way in helping them do so.  With Thad Lewis under center for the Bills, the Bengals must have a dominant showing on the road.

Lions @ Browns

It looks like Calvin Johnson will miss his second straight game, and with the way the Lions floundered offensively last week at the Packers, I don’t like their chances against what I believe to be a considerably better defense. 

Raiders @ Chiefs

I think KC has a very good chance of losing this one, but I’ll give them the W, barely.  Alex Smith and the Chiefs are uncharacteristically careless with the football in this one, and Terrelle Pryor comes up just short on a potential game winning drive.  Chiefs by 3. 

Panthers @ Vikings

Flip a coin.  I’ll take the Panthers defense against Matt Cassel.  Thoughts go out to Adrian Peterson who is going through something no one should have to endure. 

Steelers @ Jets

Are the Jets this good?  Are the Steelers this bad?  How’s this for confusing?  I think the Steelers are this bad, but I’ll take them to get the win today.  My two main reasons are Dick LeBeau scheming against Geno Smith and Ben Roethlisberger working against a secondary with a missing or limited Antonio Cromartie. 

Packers @ Ravens

I feel like I always have to mention that I’m a closet Packers fan when I say things like this, but I really like the Packers to win decidedly at the Ravens.  Both have question marks on defense, but the Packers easily have the better functioning offense.  I think Eddie Lacy comes up big today, and Aaron Rodgers throws 3 TDs.   

Rams @ Texans

Bold prediction – Matt Schaub won’t throw a pick-6 for the fifth straight week.  The Rams and their 29^th ranked run defense should be just what the doctor ordered. 

Jaguars @ Broncos

Denver averages 46 points a game, and Jacksonville agerages just over 10.  Final score – Broncos 46-10.

Titans @ Seahawks

Seattle returns home after two tough road games and makes it a long day for Ryan Fitzpatrick and company.  Seahawks by 17. 

Saints @ Patriots

My favorite game of the week.  This has historically been a game where New England gets the win.  They’re off an ugly road load, coming home to face a surging Saints team.  I won’t pick against the Saints until they start losing.  To me, they’re on even ground with the Seahawks as the best team in the NFC.  I really like what they’re doing on defense.  Saints by 10. 

Cardinals @ 49ers

This game worries me a little (since I’m picking the Niners).  I like Arizona’s defense, but I don’t think they’ll be able to generate enough scoring drives to get the win.  San Fran wins an ugly one.

Redskins @ Cowboys

As an admitted Tony Romo apologist, I’m really hoping for a bounce back from him tonight.  The putrid Redskins defense is just what the doctor ordered.  I’m counting on Dallas making more stops than Washington and avenging last year’s losses to the Skins. 

Colts @ Chargers

If you’re into “numbers”, this is the tease of the week.  Given what we’ve seen from these two teams, Indy should roll, but the “numbers” tell me not so fast my friend.  I can’t take the Chargers, so I’ll call a very close road win for the Colts. 

NFL Picks - Week 5

Season Record – 38-25

Recovering from my Atlanta trip to see Cy Kershaw and the Dodgers steal home field.  Go Blue! 

Saints @ Bears

Fade dome teams outdoors on a short week right?  Not this time.

Patriots @ Bengals

After unsuccessfully fading the Patriots and backing the Bengals last week, this one is a coin flip for me.  With a projected sloppy/wet field, I’m going with the home team to do just enough to give the Patriots their first loss of the year.

Lions @ Packers

Pack gets back on track.

Chiefs @ Titans

If KC can take care of business against a Fitzgerald-led Titans offense, they’ll be 5-0 with a home game against Oakland on deck.  I’ve got to think they’re focused for this one. 

Seahawks @ Colts

The Seahawks nearly fell at Houston last week, and the Colts are playing better ball than their division foes.  Seattle loses right?  I’m counting on a big game from Pete Carroll’s defense, focusing on shutting down the run and trusting his secondary to man-up the Colts receivers.

Jaguars @ Rams

Jacksonville is on the clock.

Ravens @ Dolphins

Even with the MNF loss at New Orleans, I still like the Dolphins.  They look a hell of a lot more cohesive than the Ravens through four weeks.

Eagles @ Giants

With as bad as the Giants are playing on offense, I’m not sure that they can score enough points, even against the sketchy Eagles defense to keep up. 

Panthers @ Cardinals

I wasn’t impressed with Arizona in their win at Tampa.  Carson Palmer has been a disappointment so far, and he’s facing another stout defense this week.  I’m counting on Carolina to come out of their bye week with a strong road showing. 

Broncos @ Cowboys

With 179 points through four weeks (44.75 per average), teams are just going to have to hope to win shootouts against Peyton and company until the weather gets bad.  Like Tony Dungy said, Peyton know this (Dallas’ cover two) defense better than any in the league.  Broncos score 46. 

Texans @ 49ers

Was last week’s loss the start of a big slide for the Texans?  Hitting the road to face a focused 49er squad that’s chasing the Seahawks isn’t the best bounce back opportunity.

Chargers @ Raiders

I’ll be turning this one on after the Dodgers take care of business a little ways up the road.  Rivers outguns Pryor in an entertaining Sunday capper. 

Jets @ Falcons

After last week’s flop, I don’t have a ton of faith in the Falcons, but they can’t lose at home to the Jets.  Can they?

Bonus Pick

Game 3 – Dodgers v. Braves

MVPuig homers; Dodgers win 5-2; lead series 2-1

NFL Picks - Week 4

Season Record: 31-18

I had an ugly 9-7 record last week with huge misses with the Giants, Niners, and Steelers getting housed.  The Atlanta-Miami game met expectations, and Cincinnati showed a lot of fight, scoring 20 unanswered points on the Packers.  We’re only three weeks in, but it’s pretty clear how this season is going to go for a lot of teams. 

The good – Seattle, Denver, New Orleans

The bad – Jacksonville, NY Giants, Minnesota, Pittsburgh

Seattle and Denver look like the clear leaders of their conferences, and if New Orleans’ defense is for real, they’re definitely in the discussion.  Jacksonville is clearly the worst team in the league, the Giants are a horrible mess on both sides of the ball, Minnesota looks lost, and Pittsburgh is far removed from being a championship contender.

What will we learn this week?

Cardinals @ Bucs

Even though I’m glad to see the Freeman era end, I don’t believe Mike Glennon is the answer either.  He gets his first chance to prove me wrong today.  Both Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are questionable.  Their absences would make the Bucs virtually weaponless in the passing game.  Doug Martin will be called on a lot regardless.  Arizona doesn’t put a ton of pressure on the passer (5 sacks through 3 games), so that should work well in the rookie’s favor.  The Bucs are a couple of stupid plays from being 2-1, so their 0-3 isn’t as ugly as the rest of the league’s winless teams.  I expect the Bucs defense to be stout and help the rookie not have to get into a TD matching contest.  Assuming, Jackson or Williams plays, look for Mike Sullivan to make use of Glennon’s arm with a few deep balls.  Bucs by 10.   

Ravens @ Bills

This is a big game for Baltimore.  Buffalo is really beat up on defense and ranks near the bottom of the league in yards allowed despite having faced teams that haven’t exactly lit it up against other teams so far (New England 19^th, Carolina 25^th, and Jets 12^th in yards per game).  Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in that category thanks to that stinker against the Browns and the defense and special teams scoring last week against Houston.  With Ray Rice reportedly ready to go, I’ll take the champs to win the time of possession and the battle on the scoreboard. 

Bengals @ Browns

I like the Bengals, but I don’t like that they’re without Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Reggie Nelson in this one.  Even if Terence Newman is able to handle Josh Gordon, the Bengals don’t have an answer for Jordan Cameron.  Cincinnati was able to come back with 20 unanswered points to beat Green Bay last week, and I think they’re going to need that kind of focused effort to win this one.  I’m taking Cincinnati, but I don’t feel great about it.  The favored team has won only one of the last twelve matchups between these two. 

Bears @ Lions

Chicago enters this one as the undefeated division leaders, but Detroit is a late TD at Arizona away from being 3-0 themselves.  The Lions will miss Nate Burleson, but Reggie Bush looks ready to go this week.  Look for both he and Joique Bell to see a ton of touches.  The Bears still score defensive TDs, but overall, the Lions are playing better defense so far.  Matthew Stafford has thrown 5 TDs and 2 INTs in his two home matchups against the Bears, so he hasn’t exactly imploded against the opportunistic defense.  I’ll take the home team to even things up in the division.

Giants @ Chiefs

I can’t come up with a reason to take the Giants in this one.  They can’t run the ball or protect Eli.  That’s definitely not going to get any easier against the Chiefs in Arrowhead.  To me it’s as easy as this – KC leads’ the NFL with a +9 turnover differential, and the Giants are the game’s worst at -9.  Those numbers will surely even out as the season progresses, but I don’t foresee an instant turnaround by both teams.  The Giants can’t stop the run (27^th most yards per game) and were lit up by DeAngelo Williams for 120 yards on 23 carries (5.2 avg).  If they had trouble containing Williams, they’re really going to struggle with Jamaal Charles.  Look for another boring Alex Smith-led win and a lot of dirt on the back of Eli’s jersey. 

Steelers @ Vikings

Flip a coin.  Both of these teams stink so far.  Pittsburgh can’t run the ball or allow Roethlisberger to set his feet for more than two seconds.  Minnesota couldn’t hold onto a lead if it came with handles.  Both defenses are giving up far too many points.  I’m taking the Steelers simply because I believe in Ben more than Christian. 

Colts @ Jaguars

If the Colts were playing just about any other team this week, I might think they’d be in store for a letdown.  That won’t matter here, as the Colts should be able to get a good audition from Trent Richardson this week with Ahmad Bradshaw sidelined.  It will probably be boring and one of the lower scoring games of the week, but the Colts get the W. 

Seahawks @ Texans

I’m sure they’ll lose eventually, but I can’t go against the Seahawks just because they’re on the road at the Texans.  After basically walking through their week one win at Carolina, over the last 8 quarters of Seattle football, there has been no question as to who was the dominant team on the field.  Like San Francisco, Houston likes to establish the run, and aside from some Kaepernick runs, the Niners were shut down.  Schaub isn’t Kaepernick.   Houston got housed at Baltimore last week, and didn’t look dominant in beating San Diego or Tennessee.  They’ll need to be dominant against Seattle, and I can’t see it happening.  If this is going to be a special season for Seattle, they have to win games like this.  The best team in the NFL moves to 4-0.

Jets @ Titans

Jake Locker played well in a loss at Houston and shined in last week’s win against San Diego, but I don’t think he’ll be consistent enough in the passing game to beat a strong Jets defense.  New York likes to run the ball, and I think they’ll be able to do so successfully against Tennessee.  If Geno Smith can quit throwing the ball to the other team (6 INTs so far), I like New York’s chances of winning an ugly road game.

Eagles @ Broncos

After two home stinkers, how eager will the Eagles be to run the fast paced offense at Mile High?  Unless Peyton Manning just has such an un-Peyton game, I don’t see Philly having a chance.  The Broncos offense is in midseason form and is pretty much unstoppable.  Philly’s defense will be outclassed in this one.  If you like points, you should see a lot of them here.  Denver scores 40. 

Redskins @ Raiders

Washington can’t possibly lose this one right?  They’d be 0-4 heading into their bye week with a road trip to Dallas next on the schedule.  Can’t happen right?  Wrong.  If Terrelle Pryor plays, I like Oakland to win.  They got beat pretty bad on MNF against the Broncos, but the Raiders never gave up.  If RGIII gets off to another slow start, it could be too late once again.  With Washington unable to stop anyone, they can’t be eager to go up against the versatile Pryor.  The DC sports talk airwaves will be on fire Monday morning.   

Cowboys @ Chargers

This is where Dallas usually gives you a stinker – off a strong home win against a team they should beat with a chance to get some separation within the division.  The Chargers have played three three-point games, so they’re staying in ball games.  I like them to do more than stay in this one.  Philip Rivers is off to a hot start (8 TD, 1 INT), and Dallas has surrendered a combined 7 TDs to Alex Smith, Eli, and Bradford.  I think Rivers will be the better QB in this one, and the Chargers win by, yes, 3 points. 

Patriots @ Falcons

New England is a very fortunate 3-0 so far.  Both the Bills and Jets had their chances to knock them off, and the Bucs game was a lot closer than the score indicated.  Danny Amendola isn’t ready yet, and it doesn’t appear that Gronk is ready to go either.  Atlanta is 1-2 but was a last minute TD from beating a Miami team whose bandwagon everyone is stumbling over themselves to get on.  I like the Falcons to get right at home and make some big plays against the Patriots. 

Dolphins @ Saints

In what should be the season’s best MNF game so far, I believe Drew Brees and company will put up just enough points to outdo the upstart Dolphins.  He had an impressive 342 yards and 3 TDs in last week’s win over Arizona that I thought might have been setting up as a bit of a trap.  They’re rolling on defense too, holding all opponents to 17 or fewer points so far.  Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins earn more respect and fans in this one, but the Saints will be the undefeated of the two come Tuesday. 

NFL Picks - Week 4 - Thursday Edition - Will San Fran Rebound?

49ers @ Rams

Short and sweet here.  The Niners are coming off a brutal home beating by the Colts, their second loss in a row.  Jim Harbaugh’s team has not lost three games in a row under his watch.  Even without Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, and Nnamdi Asomugha on defense, I have a terribly hard time seeing this team drop a third straight. 

The Rams didn’t lose to the Niners last year, beating them once and tying them in their other meeting, so another upset isn’t entirely out of the question.  But given how bad the Rams have been at putting up points the last two weeks (in non-garbage time), I can’t see them replicating what the Colts did last week.  Look for San Francisco to go with a very run heavy approach against a St. Louis team that gave up 175 yards to DeMarco Murray last week.  I’m expecting a low scoring, fairly boring Thursday contest.

Niners 24

Rams 16