Yes, I'm still here. There hasn't been a ton of sports-related material I've felt like talking about lately, and I could also use a bit of a breather before the NFL season gets going shortly.
The guys over at BucsChat.com are throwing around thoughts on the upcoming season, so I figured I'd take an early, pre-preaseason look at the games on the schedule for the Bucs in '09.
What road games will they win?
@ BUF – it won’t be freezing in September, so they should have a decent shot
@ WAS – I could see this one as a W
@ PHI – have a really hard time seeing them win this one
@ MIA – more likely to be a loss than a win
@ ATL – a likely loss
@ CAR – a likely loss
@ SEA – a likely loss if for nothing else other than the distance/travel
@ NO – a likely loss
Outcomes?
W = BUF, WAS, MIA
L = PHI, ATL, CAR, SEA, NO
What home games will they win?
DAL – should be a loss
NYG – should be a loss
CAR – most likely a loss
NE (London) – should be a loss
GB – most likely a loss
NO – I think they’re the most likely to lose to Tampa at home
NYJ – I wish we were facing Sanchez in September instead of December
ATL – I’m guessing they sweep us this year
Outcomes?
W = CAR, NO
L = DAL, NYG, NYJ, NE, GB, ATL
That’s 5-11 and IMO a pretty optimistic look at things. I really don’t see them winning at Buffalo, Washington, and Miami, but maybe they take two of the three and get another unexpected road win. I think 3-5 on the road is the best case scenario, regardless of where the wins come from.
Then at home, they’re likely dogs in all of those matchups. I think I was generous with the Carolina and New Orleans wins, and I think a Mark Sanchez-led Jets team beats us at home in December. I’m guessing the Falcons will be playing for home field or a higher playoff seed in the regular season finale, so I don’t see a garbage win there. Are they going to beat the Patriots in London? Can they get 2 home wins with that schedule?
I don’t want to have this set in stone before they play one preseason game, but I’m not seeing a lot of wins out there. Yes, the offense should be more vertical, but there are huge questions at QB, on the OL (injuries/absences, contracts, new system), and in the receiving game (one questionable starter, zero depth, Winslow’s knees). The defense is learning a new system as well, a starting safety is transitioning to LB, our defensive captain is unhappy with his contract, and there are huge talent and depth questions at corner and along the defensive front.
As we sit here in June, I think the most likely result is a record somewhere between 3-13 and 5-11. I hope I see some things in the preseason that cause me to revise my projection, but for the reasons stated above, I’m not holding out a lot of hope of that happening.
@ BUF – it won’t be freezing in September, so they should have a decent shot
@ WAS – I could see this one as a W
@ PHI – have a really hard time seeing them win this one
@ MIA – more likely to be a loss than a win
@ ATL – a likely loss
@ CAR – a likely loss
@ SEA – a likely loss if for nothing else other than the distance/travel
@ NO – a likely loss
Outcomes?
W = BUF, WAS, MIA
L = PHI, ATL, CAR, SEA, NO
What home games will they win?
DAL – should be a loss
NYG – should be a loss
CAR – most likely a loss
NE (London) – should be a loss
GB – most likely a loss
NO – I think they’re the most likely to lose to Tampa at home
NYJ – I wish we were facing Sanchez in September instead of December
ATL – I’m guessing they sweep us this year
Outcomes?
W = CAR, NO
L = DAL, NYG, NYJ, NE, GB, ATL
That’s 5-11 and IMO a pretty optimistic look at things. I really don’t see them winning at Buffalo, Washington, and Miami, but maybe they take two of the three and get another unexpected road win. I think 3-5 on the road is the best case scenario, regardless of where the wins come from.
Then at home, they’re likely dogs in all of those matchups. I think I was generous with the Carolina and New Orleans wins, and I think a Mark Sanchez-led Jets team beats us at home in December. I’m guessing the Falcons will be playing for home field or a higher playoff seed in the regular season finale, so I don’t see a garbage win there. Are they going to beat the Patriots in London? Can they get 2 home wins with that schedule?
I don’t want to have this set in stone before they play one preseason game, but I’m not seeing a lot of wins out there. Yes, the offense should be more vertical, but there are huge questions at QB, on the OL (injuries/absences, contracts, new system), and in the receiving game (one questionable starter, zero depth, Winslow’s knees). The defense is learning a new system as well, a starting safety is transitioning to LB, our defensive captain is unhappy with his contract, and there are huge talent and depth questions at corner and along the defensive front.
As we sit here in June, I think the most likely result is a record somewhere between 3-13 and 5-11. I hope I see some things in the preseason that cause me to revise my projection, but for the reasons stated above, I’m not holding out a lot of hope of that happening.
I can see anything from 0-16 to 4-12, but not much better. I am pleased that Raheem (reading between the lines of course)seems poised to anoint The Bust as the starter. I'm pleased not because he gives the team the best chance to win, but because it means getting this doomed and inexplicably bad experiment closer to its eventual omega point. I had a lot more to say about this, but I sorta overstayed my welcome on the Vick thing...trying not to be a bad guest.
ReplyDeleteTPE
Speak freely my friend. I hate being negative about my team, but I’m not seeing much to be excited about, on or off the field. Another kick in the teeth is that, even though they should be picking high in next year’s draft, based on the drafting of Raheem’s mancrush, they won’t be in the market for any of the top passers of the ’10 draft who are, even at this moment, far better than Freeman.
ReplyDeleteThe '10 top passers are coming out of schools that run the spread offense, am I right? I want to see Freeman play before I trash him.
ReplyDeleteNot Jevan Snead (Ole Miss), Tim Hiller (Western Michigan), or Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame). Snead's a guy I've mentioned before (on BucsChat I think) as one to watch out for this year. I still like Bradford the most, but watch for Snead to really push him for the top QB honor with a solid season. Snead and Clausen are both underclassmen.
ReplyDeleteHiller's a guy not getting a ton of publicity but someone I definitely like. I like him as a pocket passer with the arm and head to make plays. He's not terribly mobile, but to me he looks like a player at the next level.
Regarding the spread offense QBs, I really think that's going to be the next "big thing" in NFL offenses. It won't happen all at once, but someone is going to figure out how to make it work in the NFL. I think that a key factor in moving in this direction is the lack of true stud pocket passers in the league. Those guys are becoming endangered species. Someone's going to get ahead of the curve and surprise people instead of continually trying to plug that square into the round hole.
I'm not saying that it's going to take over the game, but someone's going to do it and do it well. It's going to take some special personnel, but it's coming.