Here are my current top five backs for the 2011 class with analysis:
1 – Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
grinder with speed; squares shoulders really well when hitting the hole; plus lower body strength; keeps legs moving on contact; doesn't hesitate, no wasted steps; really nice vision at first and second levels; good, not elite speed; would like to see him secure the ball a little better; tough to arm tackle; really quick through the hole, is 3 yards downfield before being touched in many instances; nice hands; a three down back who can handle short yardage work too; underutilized receiver; dealing with hamstring issue in ‘10
2 – Mikel Leshoure, Illinoisnice tight build; durable, can take pounding; doesn't have elite speed, but shows a great burst through the line; able to see lanes while moving and make decisive cuts; very reliable receiver; keeps feet/legs moving forward at all times; very nice shake and cutting ability for a big guy; protects the ball really well; keeps moving after contact; love him as a complete package back (runner, receiver, blocker) at next level; think he's a guy who could really develop in his second year like fellow Illini back Rashard Mendenhall
3 – Mark Ingram, AlabamaEmmitt Smith; successful inside runner; nice pad level; takes on and breaks tackles; sufficient, not elite speed; NFL size; strong leg drive; nice hands out of the backfield; 3 down back at next level; good, not great vision and cut back ability; heavy pro style offense experience; really like his balance and lean; decisive runner, not many wasted steps; above average blocker for a college back; plus ball security; doesn't have a huge NFL upside IMO
4 – Shane Vereen, Californiabreakaway speed (barely; not elite); well built for a smaller guy; runs low to the ground; runs though more tackles than you'd expect for a back his size; like him better than Justin Forsett (a guy I liked more than others coming out) but not as much as Jahvid Best; really good hands; accomplished kick returner; reliable receiver who can make plays with the ball in his hands; very quick to the perimeter; one simple play against UCLA in '10 showed me a lot about him - split out wide 1st 10, catches quick pass, takes into the middle of the defense, slips two tackles, takes third guy to bring him down, and his legs keep chopping whole time; appears to be a faster but less durable Ray Rice
5 – DeMarco Murray, Oklahomaif he's even, he's leavin'; quick accelerator; breakaway / open field speed stands out to me; plus hands; plus balance; should have huge impact as a receiver, specifically in screen game at next level; nice body type/size; quick stepper, not a long strider; return experience; plus athleticism; runs too high at times; very experienced; injury history but am impressed with how healthy/durable he's been in '10; needs to keep improving the way he protects himself as a runner; looks stronger and runs harder in '10; see a lot of Darren McFadden in him
Final Comment:
Leshoure is my favorite of this bunch, but I’d be thrilled if any of the top four ended up in the Buccaneers backfield in 2011.
Let's stipulate that things will play out as we all think they eventually will, and the Bucs are sitting with, say, the 12th pick in the draft. In your estimation, are any of these guys worth that sort of value? Is the gap between the most highly ranked player to the lowest on your list large enough to warrant taking the former at 12 rather than waiting for the latter at 44? I like that Murray kid, but 'I see a lot of Darren McFadden in him' is not an endorsment Mr. Murray is likely to put on his resume.
ReplyDeleteI will wait with anticipation for your O-line breakdown. If the Bucs are in the top half of the draft, I think that's where they go. Faine has been injured twice for prolonged periods in two years, and my eyes tell me he has lost some athleticism. As I have said before, Zuttah is fine as a depth player, but he isnt a starting NFL lineman. Left guard is being manned by a competent journeyman, but he isn't much for getting to the second level. I really cannot see them taking any other position if a highly rated guard is sitting there in the top half of the draft. Or am I missing something obvious?
TPE
Right now I'd have to say that Ryan Williams is worth that high of a pick. I think there's a big gap from Williams to Murray. One I see as a legit three down back and the other as a nice complimentary back to someone like LeSean McCoy in Philly. I'm impressed with Murray's improved strength this year. He looks more durable and capable of taking a pounding, but he still runs too high sometimes. Really it's a combination of running high and hard; leaves himself open for big hits, injuries, and turnovers.
ReplyDeleteI'll get to the OL eventually, TPE, but they'll probably be the last group I rank and publicize. I like to take my time with them for a couple of reasons. One, it's the area (especially the interior guys) I have the hardest time getting enough good looks at. And two, I like to see how guys match up against some big names/talent before drawing too strong of a conclusion either way on a guy.
We're in tough shape without Faine. There's a noticeable drop off to Zuttah, and then you're thin at guard with a huffing and puffing Vincent starting next to him. Trueblood is Trueblood, and he's ideally upgraded as well. They need to develop or find some talent at C, LG, and RT; whether that comes via the draft (more likely) or free agency. The bodies they've been shuffling around the last couple of years (Lee, Dotson, Fulton, Dile, Compas, etc.) just haven't made any kind of breakthrough. We need to get a lot better here; either coach them up better or draft/sign better talent. They'll likely draft a lineman or two; just doubt it will be done that high since you typically only do that if you're going LT, and we have Penn locked up (for better or worse) there.
If I had to guess right now, I think their first pick will be a pass rusher, safety, running back, MLB, or offensive tackle. It will be too early to go guard or center (even though I agree that those positions need to be addressed), and they're not going to take a receiver in the first. I would love more than anything for Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) to be our first pick, but I won’t hold my breath. He's hands down my favorite college prospect and is IMO the best corner to come along in years. As craptastic as Talib looked today in person, the guy is still an emerging stud. Lining up two dynamic playmaking corners who can go 1 on 1 outside frees you up to be a little more aggressive with the rest of your defense.