I don’t see great OLB value here unless they really want to reach for Dontay Moch, so I’m going receiver. Vincent Jackson is unlikely to be around much longer, and without him this past season, their top receivers were third down back Darren Sproles (59 receptions) and Antonio Gates (50), the TE who missed 6 games. Malcolm Floyd, a free agent, led all wideouts with 37 receptions.
51) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(speed on offense, CB, speed on offense, DE, speed on offense, OL, speed on offense)
I don’t see a DE being available that will allow the Bucs to double down like they did last year with McCoy and Price at DT, and with Carter off the board, I don’t see a LB worth taking. I’d love to get Ijalana for the OL, but I think he’ll be long gone. Pewter Report is reporting that the Bucs have a strong interest in Lance Kendricks. Like RT in R1, I’ve got to think the Bucs can get better value out of this pick than Kendricks.
For me it comes down to two players – Randall Cobb and Ras-I Dowling. With Aqib Talib’s future as a Buc looking pretty grim, there may be more urgency to add a corner this offseason. Dowling has been high on my list for a couple of years now, and nagging injuries are the only thing keeping him from being an elite talent in the NFL. You’ve heard me say it before – The Bucs must add speed on offense. Blount, Benn, and Mike Williams are nice key pieces, but none is known for being a shifty, explosive threat. Cobb is that weapon who can line up at multiple positions and is lethal with the ball in his hands. Either Cobb or Dowling would make an instant impact, but I say feed Freeman!
The pick – Randall Cobb (WR, Kentucky)
REMAINING BUCCANEER PICKSHopefully the Bucs stayed at #20 and still have all of their remaining picks. This draft isn’t as talented overall as last year’s, but I believe there are fits at key areas of need throughout, starting with this next pick.
Round 3 (#84)So far, I have the Bucs picking up a pass rusher and either a receiver or corner. For me, that would leave the most urgent needs as another pass rusher, linebacker, corner (if Cobb in R2), running back, offensive line, and tight end. I still don’t see the value in a R3 pass rusher or tight end, so I’d remove those positions from consideration here. That leaves LB, RB, OL, and CB.
At corner, I think you’d be looking at guys like Chimdi Chekwa (Ohio State) and Curtis Brown (Texas) at this point. I believe there is better value at the other positions, so I’ll table corner for the moment. I say this with or without Talib. If I’m Tampa, I’m not forcing a pick on someone I’m not completely sold just to address a need. That said, I have three positions and three players in mind.
On the offensive line I’m changing my focus a bit. I’m banking on the Bucs re-signing Davin Joseph, and Ted Larsen pretty much has the LG spot locked down. If/When they cut Jeff Faine, Jeremy Zuttah should take the starting center job. We have some bodies at RT, but no one has claimed ownership of the spot. Jeremy Trueblood (a pending free agent), James Lee, Demar Dotson, and Will Barker make up the competition. Lee impressed enough late last season that I wouldn’t panic with him on the right side, but I think we can do better. Considering the team’s talent and draft approach, I’d feel more comfortable with guys like Brandon Carter and Derek Hardman as guard depth than having Lee and Dotson as our top options at RT. If I’m going OL here in R3, James Carpenter (T, Alabama) would be my target. Carpenter is a big bodied guy who played LT at Alabama but projects more as a RT or even guard at the next level. He’s an asset in the running game; not incredibly strong or overpowering at the point, but he consistently remains engaged and takes his man to his spot. Carpenter moves pretty well for a big guy – vertically when getting to the second level in the run game and also laterally in pass protection when mirroring pass rushers. The fact that he’s a durable two year starter coming out of a national championship winning pro style offense should be taken into consideration as well.
At running back, the Bucs were led last year by free agent steal, LeGarrette Blount. Sucker Punch ran for just over 1,000 yards in his rookie year and looks have Tampa Bay’s lead back job locked down. Where I’m looking to get better is in the change of pace or complimentary back category. Cadillac Williams is still a face of the franchise, but he’s on the downside of his career and is no longer an explosive threat out of the backfield. I value his receiving and pass protection abilities, but we need to get more “wow” back there. Kareem Huggins has shown some nice skills in preseason play, but coming off the ACL injury, anything we get from him is a plus. The guy I see as a fit to filling that need for backfield speed as well as complimenting Blount in a change of pace way is California’s Shane Vereen. He’s not a burner, but Vereen is a guy who uses his total package to do a lot of damage. It starts with his build as a smaller, compact guy who shows a consistent balanced running style and low center of gravity. He has impressive edge quickness and vision, which combined with his running style and body type, gives you a guy who will get you those extra yards when there doesn’t appear to be anything available. Despite not having the largest build, Vereen is a strong inside runner who accumulated over 2,000 yards the last two years on more than 400 carries. He’s also an accomplished receiver out of the backfield and is simply a player that will beat you a number of ways. Again, he’s not the fastest back in this draft, but I love how his overall game projects in our backfield.
Last but not least is linebacker. As I said last time, this area needs a thorough and proper evaluation. I believe that if Quincy Black is deemed a free agent once this CBA BS is sorted out, enough teams will show interest that he’ll price himself out of Tampa Bay, especially considering the Bucs have Dekoda Watson and Adam Hayward (a more likely to be resigned free agent) as potential replacements at SLB. That said, I’m focusing the offseason upgrades at WLB and MLB. Again, this isn’t Derrick Brooks’ Tampa 2 where all/most of the action is being funneled to a future Hall of Fame WLB. Still, there should be more production, of both the long term and instant impact varieties, coming from that position. No one is calling on Hayes to be Brooks, but more consistent progression than what has been shown is needed at WLB.
The same can be said for the MLB position that has been occupied by Barrett Ruud for the last four years. Take a look at some stats:
2010 – #28 @ 131.7 yds game
2009 – #32 @ 158.2 yds game
2008 – #19 @ 118.8 yds game
2007 – #17 @ 107.9 yds game
That’s Tampa Bay’s rush defense ranking in the four years that Ruud has occupied the MLB position. You see a big jump from the ’07 and ’08 numbers to the performance of the last two seasons, and it’s no coincidence that those were Derrick Brooks’ last two years as a Buccaneer. Granted stopping the running game isn’t solely Ruud’s responsibility and the DT play in front of him hasn’t been the greatest, but you’d expect your MLB to be more of a stout presence in the run game, regardless of scheme. With his contract up once again, I think it’s time for the Bucs to move on from Ruud.
Focusing back on the draft, at this point in R3, I think you’re more likely to find a MLB replacement than one at WLB. The top WLB options for the Bucs look to be Carter and Foster, and I have both of them going off the board before we pick in R2. It wouldn’t surprise me if Quan Sturdivant got a good look from the Bucs due to his versatility, but for me, this still comes down to one player – Nate Irving. As I said last time, Irving has the sideline to sideline ability that the Bucs have long coveted, but he’s more of a force against the run than we’re used to from the position. Irving is extremely active at the line of scrimmage, and we’re less likely to see our MLB turning and chasing with him on the field. His ability to consistently and properly diagnose and react to the action in front of him is impressive.
As enticing as adding Vereen is and as attractive an addition as Carpenter could be to the OL, I’m still firmly locked into this one. I think this guy would make a huge positive impact, especially paired with a R1 pass rusher.
The pick – Nate Irving (LB, NC State)
Round 4 (#116)So far it’s still DE (Houston), WR (Cobb), and LB (Irving) just like the last draft. We’re getting more explosive on both sides of the ball. Here’s where I’m making a change from the last draft. In the previous version I went with John Moffitt, but I’m bypassing the offensive line right now. Here I’m looking mainly at three positions – cornerback, tight end, and another pass rusher.
I have two corners in mind in this range – Rashad Carmichael and Jalil Brown. I like Carmichael a lot more than guys who will go a lot earlier than he will. He totaled 10 INTs over the last two years and was one of Bud Foster’s most active defenders. You never see him not hustling. I feel pretty confident that he’s going to be a successful pro, and his skill set fits in well with the Bucs. He can turn and run with receivers, diagnoses and reacts really well, and doesn’t hesitate to put a hat on someone. Brown is bigger and more physical than Carmichael, but he doesn’t get after it as much as the Hokie. Brown doesn’t have Carmichael’s ball skills, but if the Bucs prefer to go the more physical route, Brown might be their guy.
The Bucs are looking at adding talent to the TE position, and a guy I think could be available here is Rob Housler from FAU. Housler’s been the 5th ranked TE on my list for a while and is a guy I think can create mismatches in the middle of the field out of the slot. I really like his hands and the sharpness of his routes. Combine that with his ability to separate, and you’re looking at a valuable weapon to pair with Kellen Winslow. I know the Bucs are probably looking for someone that can help out a little more as a run blocker, but if they don’t get Cobb in R2, I like Housler as a shifty, mismatch guy.
Back to defensive end. With Houston, the Bucs have one roster spot worthy pass rusher. Even if they sign someone in free agency (whenever that is), they need to draft another player who can pressure the passer. A guy who was on my radar in this round last time is Greg Romeus. He’s not as explosive as Houston and the other pass rushers who will get drafted earlier, but he plays with more power than Houston and holds up better against the run. Romeus is likely to slide this far due to having undergone back surgery and rehabbing a torn ACL and because of the abundance of talent at the position this year. He has the size and ability to play LE, but at worst, he and Houston could split time on the right side as rookies.
The pick – Greg Romeus (DE, Pittsburgh)
Round 5 (#151)If the draft was to play out this way so far, I’d be looking to add a corner right about now. If Carmichael or Brown falls this far, I’d obviously be interested. Another corner I’m looking at that figures to go in the R4-R5 range is Curtis Marsh from Utah State. Marsh has good size (6-1, 197) and looks like he can (should) fill out a bit more. He initiates contact with receivers at the line and doesn’t let them get into him; controls the action. I like how smoothly he flips his hips in coverage and how quick his feet are when changing directions; looks really athletic. I admittedly haven’t seen much of him in action, but from what I have seen, the Bucs could do a lot worse with this pick. I also find it intriguing that Marsh has only two years of experience at the position and think Raheem Morris could do a lot with a guy like him; size, speed, fluid; physical.
I’ll mention Deunta Williams (FS, North Carolina) again should he remain on the board this late. He’s still my #1 safety this year, and if his leg injury allows him slip this far, he has a chance to be a huge steal. We still don’t know if/when Tanard Jackson will return, and while I’m a Corey Lynch fan, I think we need more big play potential at the position. Williams brings impressive size, range, and ball skills.
The one other player I’m considering here is Derrick Locke from Kentucky. He’d more than satisfy the need for backfield speed and contribute substantially as a receiver out of the backfield. He’s lethal in space, and if the Bucs haven’t yet added some offensive explosiveness, they’ve got to consider him. Locke compares favorably with Darren Sproles.
The pick – Curtis Marsh (CB, Utah State)
Round 6 (#187)Through five rounds I’m feeling good about addressing a lot of weaknesses:
Justin Houston (DE)
Randall Cobb (WR)
Nate Irving (MLB)
Greg Romeus (DE)
Curtis Marsh (CB)
Josh Johnson is a free agent after the season, and I find it extremely unlikely that he returns to a team where he has zero shot of taking the starting job. I still think something can be worked out with the Niners, especially if they don’t take Gabbert. If I’m Tampa, I have to decide if one year of Freeman insurance is worth more than a potential mid round draft pick. I’m as big a supporter of Josh Johnson that you’ll find, but if you know he’s not going to be around much longer, don’t you at least try to get something for him? Here’s where I think you’ll find his replacement. Tyrod Taylor came a long way as a passer and leader during his time at Virginia Tech. He has a really good arm, is very mobile, and I believe has a lot more potential as a passer than he’s given credit for.
Mike Mohamed from California is a guy I’d take a look at here for MLB if they don’t address the position earlier. He’s a big effort guy they could have compete with Tyrone McKenzie for early down work in the middle.
The pick – Tyrod Taylor (QB, Virginia Tech)
Round 7a (#222)With the first of their two seventh round picks, I’m looking to bring in an offensive tackle. Two players I’m keying on are Willie Smith of ECU and David Mims from Virginia Union. Smith is a raw athlete (6-5, 310) who hasn’t even played tackle for three full seasons. With a little more bulk and experience, it’s not unreasonable to think he could be a valuable swing tackle. David Mims on the other hand is a massive dude (6-8, 330) with upside as a right tackle. No, I haven’t seen him play, but having read multiple reports, but he looks like a strong, stout guy who can move a little bit. Their skill sets are different, but both offer intriguing potential.
The pick – Willie Smith (T, ECU)
Round 7b (#238)With the Bucs’ last pick, I have three players in mind – Mark LeGree, Aldrick Robinson, and Fred Rouse. LeGree is the free safety from Appalachian State that I passed on for Richard Sherman in the last mock. He’s very productive, finishing his career at ASU as the active NCAA Division I leader in INTs with 22. As I suggested last time, he might have some corner flexibility and, worst case scenario, would be a solid special teamer. Robinson is a speedster from SMU who would provide speed and elusiveness from the slot. I don’t like him as a deep ball guy, but in the intermediate area, if he catches it with some cushion he’s a threat to break off some serious yardage. Last but not least is Rouse, the former Nole who’s back on the football radar again via Concordia College. There’s a chance he gets drafted late because he’s reportedly still got the speed and strength to go with his size and supposedly isn’t an assclown anymore. Keep an eye on him late or as an undrafted free agent. As I mentioned in my last rankings piece, Greg Little has a chance to be this year’s Mike Williams, but Rouse could be a poor man’s Little. If I went with Dowling in R2 instead of Cobb, I would have mocked one of the receivers with this pick.
The pick – Mark LeGree (FS, Appalachian State)
WHAT WE GOTTwo pass rushers – Because they’re so bad at the position and free agency cannot be relied upon, I think they’ve got to take two ends in the draft. I’ve given them a RE who can stand up if/when Raheem wants to mix up fronts in Houston and another who is an accomplished pass rusher and might be able to line up on the left side in Romeus.
Speed at receiver – Josh Freeman has shown tremendous promise, and surrounding him with more talent is only going to increase his effectiveness. Adding Cobb to Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Dezmon Briscoe, and Kellen Winslow gives the passing game another dimension and stretches the field even more for Freeman.
Oomph at linebacker – Geno Hayes needs to step up, but I believe adding Houston, Romeus, and Irving to a front seven that includes last year’s top picks Gerald McCoy and Brian Price is going to put hair on this defense’s chest. With Irving in the middle, I think you’ll see a steep decline in the number of tackles made downfield. The Bucs are going to leave the draft with a linebacker, and if it’s not Irving, I’m guessing it will be one of his rival Tar Heel backers, Carter (if he happens to fall in R2) or Sturdivant.
Secondary depth – Marsh projects as a boundary corner, and as I mentioned before, with his skill set, Raheem should be able to develop him into a viable starter. He and the staff have done quite well so far with former R7 pick EJ Biggers, and I could see the same thing happening with Marsh (or Dowling, Carmichael, or J Brown). LeGree joins fellow Mountaineer Corey Lynch at safety, and as I mentioned before, he might have some corner ability.
Johnson’s replacement – I’m in the camp that believes the Bucs will deal Josh Johnson at some point, and Taylor is an experienced passer with upside.
Offensive line project – Smith brings athleticism and raw potential for new OL coach Pat Morris to work with.
WHAT WASN’T ADDRESSEDOLB – I found a replacement for Ruud, but like last time, I don’t see the draft falling out in a way that will allow the Bucs to make a significant upgrade over Hayes at WLB. The best options in my opinion are Bruce Carter and Mason Foster, and both could be gone before we pick at #51. R2 is too early for Sturdivant in my opinion, and I wouldn’t pass up Nate Irving for him in R3. After that you’re looking at guys like Ross Homan, Lawrence Wilson, and Doug Hogue. I like those guys, but I’m not sure any is an upgrade over Hayes.
RB – I think the Bucs will leave the draft with a receiver or a back, not both, and I happened to go receiver. Cobb is my preference for an offensive playmaker, but Vereen and Locke might have better chances of becoming Buccaneers.
TE – With the need for two ends, help at linebacker, corner, and my preference for an offensive playmaker, I’m not willing to spend an early pick on a TE. After that you’re looking at guys who are primarily blockers or projects, and I like the late value better at other positions.
G/C – As I mentioned earlier, assuming Davin Joseph is resigned, I think the guard positions are locked down. I’d still be fine if the Bucs let Jeff Faine go and replaced him with Jeremy Zuttah, but it looks like Faine is staying. I could see them bringing in an undrafted free agent interior lineman (when they’re allowed to), but I’m satisfied enough with Derek Hardman and Brandon Carter as depth / developmental talent to not spend a draft pick on this area.
DT – With the Bucs drafting Gerald McCoy and Brian Price last year to go along with Roy Miller, there’s no need for the Bucs to spend one of this year’s draft picks on a defensive tackle. I’m fine with Frank Okam and Al Woods as depth.
DRAFT PICK SUMMARY
R1 (#20) Justin Houston (DE, Georgia)
R2 (#51) Randall Cobb (WR, Kentucky)
R3 (#84) Nate Irving (MLB, NC State)
R4 (#116) Greg Romeus (DE, Pittsburgh)(previous - John Moffitt)
R5 (#151) Curtis Marsh (CB, Utah State)(previous - Markus White)
R6 (#187) Tyrod Taylor (QB, Virginia Tech)
R7a (#222) Willie Smith (T, ECU)(previous - Richard Sherman)
R7b (#238) Mark LeGree (FS, Appalachian State)Alternate Draft1 (#20) Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa)
2 (#51) Ras-I Dowling (CB, Virginia)
3 (#84) Shane Vereen (RB, California)
4 (#116) Rob Housler (TE, FAU)
5 (#151) Deunta Williams (FS, North Carolina)
6 (#187) Mike Mohamed (MLB, California)
7a (#222) David Mims (T, Virginia Union)
7b (#238) Aldrick Robinson (WR, SMU)
GO BUCS!
I’ll get more in depth about each pick the Bucs have made so far later on, but let’s just say I’m pleased. Through the first three rounds, the Bucs have acquired two pass rushers and a linebacker with versatility. Adrian Clayborn will line up at RE, and Da’Quan Bowers slides in at LE. Both guys can also line up as ends in 3-4 alignments which will come in handy as Raheem gets more comfortable/frequent with mixing up his looks. Mason Foster has played multiple positions, but I hope the Bucs focus him at WLB as I think that’s where his skills are best utilized. I appreciate Adam Hayward, but I want an impact starter, not a jack of all trades master of none. 
