In a bit of history, this is the first time that a
conference has repeated its final four from the previous year. The AFC did that with Baltimore and Houston
moving on to face Denver and New
England . The NFC side of
the bracket isn’t too shabby itself as each of the remaining teams could make a
viable argument for winning it all. I
think we’re in store for some exciting football this weekend, especially in the
two NFC matchups.
Saturday (4:30, CBS)
He’s baaaaaack! Peyton Manning is in the playoffs again with
a team that’s currently favored to get to New
Orleans
The defense is pulling its weight as well. They’re among the best in the league against
both the pass and run. Denver
So does Baltimore Alabama Baltimore Denver
I think the Ravens, especially on the defensive side of the
ball are going to have trouble bringing the same level of emotion that they
played with last week. I’m in no way
questioning the heart of these veterans, but it’s got to be tough to get as up
this week as they were for Ray Lewis’ last home game. The Broncos are rested and focused. They beast this team once already, and I have
no doubt that Peyton Manning has figured out a few more ways to attack that
defense since their meeting. That’s a
week the Ravens would love to forget, as they got pushed around rather easily
34-17 on their home turf.
Knowshon ran for 115 yards on 21 carries against this
defense in week 15, and if the Ravens commit too much to the pass, he’ll gash
them again. I love Anquan Boldin, but I
don’t see him having back-to-back big weeks.
I have trouble seeing any of Baltimore Denver
Rice and Pierce combined for 173 on 28 carries against the
Colts, but Denver Denver
Broncos 24
Ravens 20
Saturday (8:00, FOX)
Here we have our second rematch from a regular season tilt,
and again, the first affair was one of the one-sided variety. San Francisco
rolled into Wisconsin
and pushed around the Packers. Frank
Gore had 112 yards on the ground which was his second best rushing performance
of the year, and the recently replaced Alex Smith was most efficient throwing
for 211 yards and 2 TDs and completing 77% of his passes. It was a near perfect game for the
Niners. They scored on four of their
five first half drives and forced the Packers to punt on six of their first
seven. Green Bay knows they can’t get into another
early hole, especially in San Fran, or it’s going to be another long four
quarters.
How can Green Bay
avoid a repeat of that disaster? Well
for starters they at least have a semblance of a running game now with the
emergence of DuJuan Harris. The Troy
Trojan totaled exactly 100 yards against a formidable Vikings defense and is
the hot hand in a backfield that has him splitting carries with Ryan
Grant. It’s no secret though that Green Bay ’s offense runs
through Aaron Rodgers and the passing game.
They go as he goes. Last week was
the first time in a long time that all of his receivers were healthy. Jordy Nelson is a little banged up this week,
but even if he’s not able to go, Rodgers will be able to spread the field with
Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley. Not a lot of faces have changed, but this is
definitely a different Packers team than the one that San Fran whipped in week
1.
The Packers defense better bring its A-game as well. In addition to a power running attack led by
Gore, they have to keep a really close eye on Colin Kaepernick getting outside
the pocket. The Niners haven’t become a
high flying offense under Kaepernick, but he averaged 6.6 yards on 63 carries
compared to Smith’s 4.3 on 31 carries.
That’s the kind of speed and athleticism that extends drives and keeps
Rodgers on the sidelines. Michael
Crabtree is loving life with his new QB.
After breaking the 100 yard barrier once and scoring three TDs with
Smith under center, Crabtree totaled 100 yards three times and scored six TDs
with Kaepernick. He’s also been targeted
at least eleven times in four of his last five games. While Crabtree and Kaepernick have been on
the same page, phenom TE Vernon Davis had a total of 11 targets in his last
five games.
I’ve got to think the Niners are going to try and pound away
at Green Bay ’s
front as long as they can pick up four yards a play. The Packers will need to put San Fran in long
yardage situations and avoid letting Kaepernick use his legs to pick up first
downs. Conversely, I expect the Packers
to spread the field and mix formations, specifically swapping Cobb and Jennings between slot and wide
positions.
I also really believe the Packers are going to run early
right at Justin Smith. Let’s find out
just how healthy he is and how much attention he needs from the get-go. The veteran stud defensive lineman is just a
few weeks removed from a partial tear of a triceps injury. I’m not the guy’s doctor, but you’ve got to
think he’s going to be far from top form, especially when you consider Ray
Lewis missed ten games with a similar injury.
If Justin Smith isn’t Justin Smith, that’s going to make things easier
for the Packers and tougher for Aldon Smith.
It’s no coincidence that the second year pass rusher has registered zero
sacks since the veteran was injured. The
Niners have also given up 753 yards, 66 points, and 48 first downs in the six
quarters Smith’s missed. If the Packers
can get anything out of Harris in the running game it will considerably
increase their chances of advancing.
This is Kaepernick’s biggest game as a pro, while Rodgers
has been there done that. You know Dom
Capers is scheming the hell out of the youngster this week, and they’re a whole
different defense with a healthy Clay Matthews.
I like Green Bay ’s
chances of slowing down (not stopping) the run game and forcing San Fran to
throw more than they’d like. When they
do, I like how the Packers stack up in the secondary, especially at corner and
specifically rookie Casey Hayward. Look
for him to make a big play or two in this one.
They’re finally healthy with the return of Charles Woodson, whose
impact, I believe, will come more so in the run game against Gore. I’m a Kaepernick guy, but I think he’s going
to have an untimely mistake or two.
The Packers are the healthier team, and if the offensive
line can keep their MVP upright and ahead of the chains this game could go
either way. I think this will be the
most exciting matchup of the weekend and that Rodgers will show why he’s the
best in the business. Randall Cobb
scores twice, and Jordy Nelson catches a back shoulder fade late in the game
for the winning TD.
Packers 27
Niners 23
Sunday (1:00, FOX)
Can the Falcons finally do something in the playoffs? They own the NFC’s #1 seed, started the
season on an 8 game winning streak, and tied the Broncos for best regular
season record,. Matt Ryan took to Dirk
Koetter’s offense beautifully and has enjoyed spreading it around to Roddy
White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez.
All three finished the season with at least 124 targets and 79
receptions and are as dangerous as any other offensive trio remaining in the
playoffs. That’s wonderful, but if the
Falcons pull another one-and-done this postseason, it’s going to be an
incredibly long offseason in Atlanta .
This game will feature two of the league’s best scoring
defenses. Seattle ranks 1st overall, and the
Falcons are a respectable 5th.
I think the fact that Seattle ’s
offense has faced much stiffer, more consistent tests throughout the season
will be a big plus for them in this one.
While the Seahawks face San Francisco
(2), Arizona (17), and St.
Louis (14) in their own division, Atlanta didn’t have nearly as tough a
schedule. From week 8 on, the highest
ranked defense the Falcons faced was the Giants at #12. They smoked those Giants, but a lot of those
points came off Eli. Here’s who they
faced and where those teams ranked in scoring defense – Eagles (29), Cowboys
(24), Saints (31), Cardinals (17), Bucs (23), Saints (31), Panthers (18),
Giants (12), Lions (27), Bucs (23).
There’s no question who will control the ground game. Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson combined
for 199 yards rushing against the Redskins, who had boasted a stout run defense,
and held RGIII and Alfred Morris to a combined 101 rushing yards. The Falcons finished the year 21st
overall in rush defense and allowed 142 to Doug Martin in week 17. They picture isn’t pretty on the offensive
side either. Only the Cardinals,
Cowboys, and Jaguars ran for fewer yards during the regular season. Michael Turner isn’t nearly as threatening as
Morris and had just two 100 yard rushing games (barely) on the year. I think you’ll see more Jacquizz Rodgers than
Turner, but regardless, it’s obvious that Falcons offense runs through Ryan and
the passing game.
Undoubtedly the biggest injury in this contest is Seattle ’s loss of pass
rushing end Chris Clemons. I don’t know
if it’s the west coast thing or what, but Clemons may be the most underrated
pass rusher in football. With him out
for the rest of the year Bruce Irvin now needs to be a full time player. Will the rookie slide in seamlessly, or will
Clemson absence be glaring? For the
Falcons, John Abraham sprained his ankle in the meaningless season finale
against the Bucs, but he’s back at practice this week.
I love Seattle ’s
defense, but I don’t think Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are going to be
able to out-physical White and Jones. As
much as I don’t like the matchup for the undersized Falcons defense against
Lynch and the running game, I do like the White-Jones-Gonzalez arsenal’s
chances against the Seahawks defense. Given
his gimpy knee RGIII was unable to get after Seattle ’s secondary much, but Brandon Browner
definitely looked rusty. I fully expect
the Falcons to test him often in this matchup. I believe that if the Falcons
are going to advance they must take control of the momentum early on.
Two of Seattle ’s
scores last week came off turnovers, and they were trailing a highly
ineffective RGIII until the fourth quarter. Atlanta is more
dynamic offensively than Washington
and will vary formations to get their weapons in the best position to make
plays. I believe Atlanta
is going to play this one with a ton of pride and give Seattle everything they’ve got. Will all the travel have an impact on the
Seahawks? How badly will they miss
Clemons? Can they overcome another early
multi-score deficit?
I know I picked the Seahawks last week to advance to the
Conference Championship round, but I changed my mind. They’re the popular underdog this postseason,
but call me crazy. I’m going to ride
with what I expect to be a Falcons team giving maximum effort. Koetter’s game plan works fabulously as
Atlanta’s dynamic passing game puts Seattle in another early hole, one which
they’re unable to escape a this time.
Ryan and company get the win and host the Packers next week for the
right to go to New Orleans .
Falcons 27
Seahawks 20
Sunday (4:30, CBS)
Our second AFC game of the weekend is another rematch of a mismatch. New England
stomped the then 11-1 Texans 42-14 in a game they owned from the outset. Houston didn’t
score until more than halfway through the third quarter, and by that time New England had 28 points. In addition to getting out to an early lead,
the Patriots did a nice job of taking away Arian Foster and the Texans running
game. The scariest part of that beating
was that the Patriots did it without their biggest offensive weapon, Rob
Gronkowski. That game was a mere month ago, and the Texans have been soundly
beaten three of the last five times they’ve taken the field.
They won last week, but I can’t say I was terribly impressed
with the Texans in their win over the Bengals.
They scored just 19 points and finished with less than 20 for the fourth
time in their last five games. Foster
had a huge game, but other than the victory, there wasn’t much to get excited
about if you’re a Texans fan. They had
trouble exploiting a Bengals defense that was on the field far too much due to
Andy Dalton’s complete ineptitude as a passer.
That won’t fly this week.
It comes down to two players – Arian Foster and JJ
Watt. Foster has to at least double his
85 total yards from scrimmage in their last meeting for the Texans to have a
chance in this one. New
England is going to score, and the ability for Foster to move the
chains and slow the pace is going to be their best chance of limiting the
Patriots scoring opportunities. If the
Texans hope to hold New England well under 42
this time, Watt has to be a big factor.
The Patriots did a tremendous job of sliding blockers his way wherever
he lined up, holding him sackless. To
illustrate how fine a job New England ’s
offensive line did in that game, Watt had four sacks in the two games prior to
that one and five sacks in the two games after it. If I’m picking a Texan to turn things around
it’s Foster. They’re going to have to
feed him the ball, and I believe he’ll be more of a factor this time. I don’t see New England
skunking them in the first half again, nor do I see Gary Kubiak abandoning the
run as soon this time. Watt on the other
hand is in for another long game in my opinion.
I think the Patriots veteran front played a near perfect game against
him last time, and they’re going to stick to what worked. With the way the rest of this unit is
playing, I’m not confident that someone else is suddenly going to step up.
With one more win Brady passes Joe Montana as the winningest
QB in postseason history. A
Packers/Broncos championship matchup looks like our destiny. The Texans will again blitz and blitz and
blitz, and Brady will again throw touchdowns.
Houston Houston
Patriots 34
Texans 17
Revised Predictions
AFC Conference Championship
Patriots @ Broncos – Broncos
NFC Conference Championship
Packers @ Falcons – Packers
Super Bowl XLVII
Broncos v. Packers – Packers
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