AFC Championship Game
Patriots @ Broncos
Sunday (3:00, CBS)
Last Saturday’s second game was the Sucker Punch show. The suddenly resurgent bruising back ran for
a Patriot playoff record 166 yards and 4 scores in a 43-22 win against the
Colts. Tom Brady didn’t have a TD on the
day, but, more importantly, he managed a perfect game, leading the offense to
23 first downs and 35 minutes of possession.
Playing with the lead throughout, the Patriots defense was able to force
four Andrew Luck INTs and thwart any attempt at a comeback. It was an excellent game plan against an
offense that put up 45 points the week before.
They’ll need an even bigger effort this week against a Broncos team that
had no trouble avenging an earlier home loss to the Chargers. After a 27-20 defeat that saw San Diego
befuddle Peyton and run through his defense, Denver dominated the action,
holding the Chargers scoreless into the fourth quarter and limiting them to 65
rushing yards, or 112 less rushing yards than their last meeting. They’ll need to bring that effort and then
some this week against a Patriots team that has transformed itself into a power
rushing team that can thrown when necessary.
You can break this game down any number of ways, but you’ve
got to start with the two future HOF QBs.
Brady is 10-4 in head-to-head matchups against Peyton’s teams, including
three road wins in five contests. Brady
has also been the more consistent QB in their games, accumulating a 26-12
TD-INT ratio compared to 29-20 for Peyton.
One of the more memorable matchups was their last, the week 12 encounter
that saw Brady rally the Patriots from a 24 point deficit to top the Broncos
34-31 in OT. What historical moments
will come from this edition?
Taking a look at the personnel, there are several
significant differences. Starting at the
TE position, a regular season role reversal has taken place. Now the Patriots are the team without theirs,
as Gronk is on IR and Julius Thomas is active for this one. Sucker Punch figures to be a factor in this
one after totaling two totes in week 12.
Von Miller scored the first TD in that last meeting, but he’s out of
this one with a torn ACL. More importantly,
in my opinion, the Broncos will be without their best corner, Chris Harris, who
sustained a season-ending knee injury last week against the Chargers. Not coincidently, San Diego started scoring after Quentin
Jammer replaced Harris. Think Bill
Belichick might find a way or two to exploit Jammer? As Steelers safety Ryan Clark pointed out
this week, it’s more about chemistry and communication than skill in the
secondary, and replacing Harris with Jammer had a negative impact on both the
chemistry and communication. That’s
usually not something that gets cleaned up in a week of practice.
One thing about this game that intrigues me is that either
team can successfully play it out multiple ways. Will the Patriots lean on the run game and
try to keep Peyton on the sidelines, or will they try to match scores by
throwing against a beatable secondary?
Will the Broncos rely on Peyton to read and confuse defenses with the
pass, or like last time they met, will Knowshon Moreno (37 carries, 224 yards)
have a huge game on the ground? I think
we’ll see New England look to keep the power run game going and throw when they
need to, matching scores with Denver ,
albeit at a slower pace. Denver will do what it
does – thrown when you play run and run when you play pass.
I look for Wes Welker and Julius Thomas to be the offensive
keys for Denver
in this one, with the latter presenting the biggest mismatch for the
Patriots. Thomas was second on the team
in receiving TDs despite missing two games.
His ability to draw more than one defender will open things up for the
trio of Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker. With Thomas and Decker drawing Aqib Talib and
Alfonzo Dennard out wide, look for Welker to draw a lot of targets against Kyle
Arrington. His ability to exploit that
matchup could be the deciding factor. For
the Patriots, I look for Julian Edelman to run a lot of quick-cutting routes
against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in an attempt to get the corner
leaning. Despite the 280 Denver rushing yards in
week 12, I think the Patriots will be the more successful team on the ground
this time around. We know New England is
missing Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and now Brandon Spikes, but as they’ve done
in the past, the Patriots are playing next man up. Sealver Siliga stepped into the lineup after
that last Denver
game and has done a tremendous job of holding his run gaps. Dont’a Hightower has come on huge in Mayo’s
absence, and rookie linebacker Jamie Collins is becoming more of an impact
player every week. New England features
a much better offensive line than San Diego , and
I think they’ll find success running straight at a Denver defense that isn’t very big behind
Terrance Knighton. If Sucker Punch is
able to get past the line of scrimmage, he could run for a while. Denver
did a much better job against Mathews in the rematch, but he was significantly
banged up, doesn’t bring the pop that Sucker Punch does, and runs behind an
inferior line.
The Broncos and Patriots face each other next season, so
unless Peyton’s neck scan holds bad news, these legends will have at least one
more showdown. But will this be their
last face-off on the conference’s biggest stage? I’m extremely impressed with what Belichick
and Brady have done this year. I think
they keep this one close and even lead at some point, but Peyton and his
superior weapons will make just enough plays to squeak out a trip to the Super
Bowl. Welker scores the winning TD with
a minute to go.
Broncos 34
Patriots 30
NFC Championship Game
49ers @ Seahawks
Sunday (6:30, FOX)
Both of these teams bullied their way to the NFC title
game. San Francisco beat up and frustrated Cam
Newton a week after withstanding the Packers in the cold, and Seattle made Drew
Brees look silly for a second time, holding him to an unimpressive 39.4
QBR. The Niners, playing their third road
game in three weeks, made good on a three point halftime lead, shutting out the
home team Panthers the rest of the way.
Vernon Davis’ replay reversal TD just before the break was the turning
point in the game. After that, San Fran
took away Carolina ’s run game and forced Cam to make plays in the passing game with a gimpy Steve
Smith, a bracketed Greg Olsen, and Ted Ginn.
Offensively, Anquan Boldin continues to make plays in the postseason,
catching 8 passes for 136 yards, while Frank Gore averaged just under 5 ypc on
17 totes. Seattle ,
much like Denver ,
had an easy going through three quarters.
Marshawn Lynch was in Beast Mode, running for 140 yards and 2 scores,
while their defense shut down the run game and forced Bres into uncomfortable
situations all afternoon. Jimmy Graham
was limited to 1 reception on 8 targets, and aside from the one weekly deep
ball to Robert Meachem, no Saint had a catch go longer than 25 yards. Marques Colston put up the best stat line of
the afternoon for New Orleans ,
but he’ll be remembered for his failed attempt at extending the game with a
cross-field, game-ending forward lateral.
Unsurprisingly, these teams split their regular season
matchups, with each holding serve at home.
Seattle
had their way with San Fran in week 2, confusing Colin Kaepernick into 3 INTs
en route to a 29-3 victory. The California contest was
much closer, with the Niners emerging with a 19-17 win in Michael Crabtree’s
second game of the season. This one is
in Seattle . Home field in the playoffs is an understood
advantage, but the edge the Seahawks have at CentruyLink Field is one that
cannot be understated or beaten with game planning. The ability for the 12th man to
constantly disrupt Kaepernick’s communication and keep the visitors at a disadvantage
may be the best thing the Seahawks have going for them in this one.
There are a couple of key player updates on Seattle ’s side. First, the bad news. Percy Harvin’s return to the field was
short-lived. The big play receiver
suffered a couple of big hits and a concussion against the Saints and has not
been cleared to face the Niners. His
absence means the Seahawks will rely on their regular season arsenal of Golden
Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Jermaine Kearse.
Not exactly the Three Amigos. For
the good news, linebacker KJ Wright is good-to-go after sitting out the last
five weeks with a foot injury. He may be
limited, but having their best coverage linebacker on the field to provide support
against Vernon Davis will be huge.
Kaepernick has gotten into a groove lately, and limiting his downfield weapons
is Seattle ’s
best chance of keeping San Fran off the scoreboard.
The Niners will hope Kaepernick can stay in that groove and
get them to the big game for a second straight year. Since Crabtree’s return, the Niners have
been, arguably (maybe), the league’s best team, winning seven straight. Boldin is still the most physical receiver in
the game and will destroy a defense if it doesn’t give him enough attention. Davis
doesn’t get the targets his skills suggest he should, but he’s nearly
unstoppable in the red zone. Just ask
the Panthers. Frank Gore just keeps
making plays. He totaled 110 yards on
the ground the last time he visited Seattle
and will need to put forth that kind of effort once again for San Fran to win
their fourth straight road game.
For Seattle ,
the offensive game plan is simple – Marshawn Marshawn Marshawn. A week off did the big man some good, as he
pounded away at the Saints and kept his offense in perfect down-and-distance situations
throughout. They may need an even bigger
effort this week, given the recent uninspiring play of Russell Wilson. Seattle ’s
QB got a win last week, but he was actually worse than Brees. Numbers aren’t everything, but Wilson has had a sub-50%
QBR in each of his last five games, two of them coming against the very
beatable Giants and Rams. In addition to
being more efficient with the football and forcing the Niners to respect the
pass, Wilson
will undoubtedly have to move the chains with his legs. I could see Seattle featuring quite a bit of zone read in
this one to keep the Niners off balance.
What can’t you say about these defenses? Seattle
led the league in fewest points and passing yards allowed per game. Their league best secondary intercepted more
passes (28) than any other team in the game and tied Carolina for fewest rushing TDs (4) allowed
during the regular season. They come at
you from every spot up front. When Bobby
Wagner isn’t shutting down the run game, he’s coming up the gut and getting in
the QBs face. Wagner, Michael Bennett,
Cliff Avril, Clinton McDonals and Chris Clemons combined for 31.5 sacks and
should be able to break through a Niners line that hasn’t had its best season. Their ability to get after Kaepernick and
force him into mistakes against Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Kam
Chancellor will go a long way to securing a win for Seattle .
Similarly, San Fran will hurt you all over the field. This is a consistent unit that forces you be
multi-dimensional. The trio of Justin
Smith, Aldon Smith, and Ahmad Brooks will look to get Wilson off his mark and funnel him into the
arms of the best inside backer duo in the game, Patrick Willis and NaVorro
Bowman. The secondary got some good news
this week with the return of slot corner Carlos Rogers.
The battles between these two teams have become the most
physical matchups in the NFL. The fans
don’t like each other. The players don’t
like each other. Even the coaches don’t
get along. What’s your deal?! There’s no reason to expect this game to be
much different from their previous confrontations. I’m counting on Marshawn to be Marshawn and
for Wilson to
make a few plays in critical situations.
The key for me will be Seattle ’s
ability to confuse and unsettle Kaepernick.
If they can force him into bailing out on plays and bad decision making,
this crowd will be absolutely deafening.
As their collective voice rises, so does the playmaking ability of that Seattle secondary. I love the run San Fran is on, and while they
may be the best team in the sport at this point, I think the home team emerges
victorious in the game’s hardest place to play.
Marshawn and the kicker handle all the scoring for Seattle .
Seahawks 16
Niners 13
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