Sunday, December 2, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 13



Week 12 Results (6-7) – Overall (106-55-1)

Wow that was pathetic.  I guess it could be worse.  I could be an offensive lineman for the Packers.  Those dudes suck out loud.  The playoff race is starting to shape up, and with most division winners pretty much decided at this point, several teams are fighting for wild cards.  This will be a big week for teams like the Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks, Bengals, Steelers, Colts, and those Packers.  Expect to see some physical football and, hopefully, more wins from me this weekend.  Last week is in the past.  On to the next one…

Jaguars @ Bills
The weather is supposed to be sloppy in this one, and that’s fitting given the two teams that will be taking the field.  Chad Henne has assumed the reigns of Jacksonville’s offense after an impressive showing against Tennessee, but I don’t like the matchup in this one.  I believe Jacksonville will struggle to get anything going on the ground, forcing Henne to make plays he really can’t.  Bills win. 

Vikings @ Packers
Seahawks @ Bears
I’m grouping these two games together because I see a lot of similarities.  The home teams are the better teams.  The road teams are physical teams with tough defenses.  The home teams are heavily reliant on their starting QBs and are having tremendous troubles protecting them.  The road teams are on the playoff bubble and are nearing must-win territory the rest of the way.  The road teams rely heavily on their run games to support young QBs.  Chicago has the best defense of the four, but if they don’t show up today and the Bears OL doesn’t protect Jay Cutler, Seattle will get the upset win.  If the Packers can’t keep Aaron Rodgers comfortable or at least upright and they struggle to contain Adrian Peterson, Minnesota will get the upset win.  I’m counting on the veteran QBs prevailing in tough circumstances, but these games will be decided by less than ten points combined. 

Colts @ Lions
Not taking anything away from the success of the Colts, but their wins aren’t coming against the top teams in the game.  Detroit has lost three straight but is playing much better competition.  This is also Detroit’s third straight home game.  Will they lose all three?  I think not. 

Texans @ Titans
Don’t overthink this one.  Houston scores a lot of points, and Tennessee gives up a lot.  The only way I see the Texans losing this one is if they completely overlook the Titans for next week’s game against the Patriots.  Texans big.

Panthers @ Chiefs
This one will understandably have a somber tone after Saturday’s murder-suicide.  I liked the Panthers before the incident, and I don’t see a reason to change that. 

49ers @ Rams
Given the chance, I think Jim Harbaugh is going to want to make this as big a win as possible.  It’s a division game against a team that punked them into a tie a few weeks ago, and you know Harbaugh wants to make his Kaepernick decision look genius.  The Rams don’t pull off the upset or even near-upset this time.

Patriots @ Dolphins
To me, this one is just as simple as the Texans-Titans game.  Here, the Patriots score whenever they want, and the Dolphins don’t score much at all.  Will Tom Brady and company overlook Miami for Houston?  No way.  Patriots big.

Cardinals @ Jets
The Jets were humorously inept on Thanksgiving night against the Patriots.  “Butt Fumble” will live forever in infamy.  That said, the cure for any struggling team’s ails nowadays seems to be the Cardinals.  After their 4-0 start the Cardinals have dropped 7 straight.  The streak goes to 8 Sunday. 

Bucs @ Broncos
I’m proud of these Bucs, but I think they’ll be in a bit over their heads in Denver.  The Bucs stop the run better than anyone, so while Knowshon Moreno might not duplicate his Chiefs’ game success, Peyton Manning should feast on the game’s worst pass defense.  Demaryius Thomas scores twice in a high scoring affair.

Browns @ Raiders
The Raiders are a really really bad football team.  They’ve lost four straight and look worse each time out.  This week they get an improving Browns team that is playing with confidence.  This one looks easy to me.  Trent Richardson has a huge day. 

Bengals @ Chargers
The Chargers couldn’t beat the Ravens in what looked like a bad spot for the road team last week.  This one shapes up similarly in that the Bengals come in on a winning streak and may be overlooking the Chargers for a home game against the Cowboys next week.  I really like the way Andy Dalton and this defense is playing.  San Diego’s struggles in this forgettable season continue. 

Steelers @ Ravens
I don’t care how good this Steelers defense is.  No Ben equals no chance in my opinion.  Charlie Batch is playing in slow motion, so it’s unlikely that the Steelers do significant damage on the scoreboard.  Baltimore plays a hell of a lot better at home than on the road, and this Sunday they’ll gave a chance to effectively bury that Steelers.  I expect them to rise to the occasion.  

Eagles v. Cowboys
The Eagles have all but thrown in the towel on this season, and the Cowboys are fighting for a playoff spot.  This one shouldn’t be close right?  Well, don’t forget these are the Dallas Cowboys; the team notorious for playing down to its competition, no matter how bad.  Still, I think Tony Romo has a lot of success in this one as the nails continue to be pounded into the coffin that is the Eagles nightmare season. 

Giants @ Redskins
The last time these two met, we were treated to quite the contest.  RGIII shined but had a couple of costly turnovers, while Eli Manning had another one of his legendary late comebacks.  Which New York team shows up – the one that stomped a mudhole in the Packers last week or the one that couldn’t get anything going against the Steelers or Bengals?  Two things stand out for me – Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are far better defensively than Green Bay, and New York always plays better on the road.  This one should be a bit more captivating than last week’s Carolina/Philly snoozer.  I expect a solid effort from the Redskins, but I’m backing the Giants because I believe the veteran team knows how important getting this win is considering their remaining schedule – New Orleans, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Philadelphia


5 comments:

  1. “Wow that was pathetic. I guess it could be worse. I could be an offensive lineman for the Packers.”

    In this milieu, you show a level of competence in picking games and writing interesting prose. This means you have them trumped. They can neither run block nor pass block, and there is very little else, at least on the gridiron, for which an offensive lineman is suited.

    Jaguars @ Bills

    This game was so inconsequential to me, that at the time I am writing this sentence, I do not remember who won.

    Vikings @ Packers
    Seahawks @ Bears
    “I’m grouping these two games together because I see a lot of similarities.”

    Well noted. Really good analysis of the similarities. However, are we really sure about this statement? “Chicago has the best defense of the four…”. The way I see it, if they don’t get turnovers, they become pretty good, not outstanding. From the front 4 to back 4 I think Seattle is better.

    I am going to expand one of your statements to make it a little more accurate: “If the Packers can’t keep Aaron Rodgers comfortable or at least upright and they struggle to contain Adrian Peterson, AND PONDER DOESN’T MAKE THE BONEHEAD THROWS THAT HAVE PLAGUED HIS SOPHMORE CAMPAIGNE, Minnesota will get the upset win.

    Colts @ Lions
    “Not taking anything away from the success of the Colts, but their wins aren’t coming against the top teams in the game.”

    On the other hand, they were 0-12 at this time last year. It’s not quite true to say that Luck is the only difference, but when you see that kid with lineman all around or draped on him and he still delivers, it’s pretty impressive. Detroit has better players at just about every position on the field and their D-line was a matchup nightmare for the Colts; an inexcusable loss.



    Texans @ Titans
    “Don’t overthink this one.”

    I couldn’t; I only had the one thought that it would not be worth watching.


    Panthers @ Chiefs
    “This one will understandably have a somber tone after Saturday’s murder-suicide. I liked the Panthers before the incident, and I don’t see a reason to change that.”

    I would have suspended the game. As I understand it, Commissioner Goodell as the team what they wanted to do. In my opinion, that’s not leadership; that’s looking for a way to pass the buck to insure the game is played.


    49ers @ Rams
    “Given the chance, I think Jim Harbaugh is going to want to make this as big a win as possible.”

    This was a trap scenario for SF. On the road. Some tape on Kaepernick. Division matchup. I though the 49ers would win, and should have given that their kicker had a makeable game winner, but I wasn’t much surprised at the outcome.


    Patriots @ Dolphins
    “To me, this one is just as simple as the Texans-Titans game. Here, the Patriots score whenever they want, and the Dolphins don’t score much at all. Will Tom Brady and company overlook Miami for Houston? No way. Patriots big.”

    That team misses Gronkowski an awful lot in the red zone. I should probably take a minute at some point to check out the overall health of that Patriot O-line. They didn’t quite have the cohesion I normally associate with their guys, although as is normally the case, they are still allowed to commit the most egregious displays of holding without penalty in the NFL.




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  2. Cardinals @ Jets
    “The Jets were humorously inept on Thanksgiving night against the Patriots. “Butt Fumble” will live forever in infamy. That said, the cure for any struggling team’s ails nowadays seems to be the Cardinals. After their 4-0 start the Cardinals have dropped 7 straight. The streak goes to 8 Sunday.”

    I would like to congratulate Mark Sanchez for officially wresting the title from Michael Vick as the “Shittiest Quarterback Ever To Wring Out Several Years’ Worth of Credibility From a Playoff Victory”. I never thought I would see a day come where Vick’s victory over the Packers in Green Bay was surpassed (by the way he was really average that game. GB turned the ball over something like 5 times. And to add a further tangent, only Ira Schoffel could believe 5 turnovers really don’t effect a game much, but never mind that for now).

    Bucs @ Broncos
    “I’m proud of these Bucs, but I think they’ll be in a bit over their heads in Denver.”

    And they were. I thought it was over when Freeman sailed one past Mike Williams and the Bucs had to settle for three. That throw is why I can never completely buy in to JF being the guy that will take Tampa past the better teams in the league. Brady, Rodgers and Manning between the three of them, miss a throw like that five times all year. Freeman does it once or twice a game.

    Browns @ Raiders
    “The Raiders are a really really bad football team. They’ve lost four straight and look worse each time out. “

    You always hear commentators say “THERE ARE NO VANDERBILT’S IN THE NFL! YOU AIN’T GOT DUKE ON THE SCHEDULE!”. True, but some teams have the Raiders. Twice.


    Bengals @ Chargers
    “San Diego’s struggles in this forgettable season continue.”

    If I were A.J. Smith I would call Arizona or the Eagles and ask what they’d be willing to give up for Rivers. The Chiefs would be really interesting with him, but SD is not going to move him intra-division.


    Steelers @ Ravens
    “I don’t care how good this Steelers defense is. No Ben equals no chance in my opinion a chance to effectively bury that Steelers. I expect them to rise to the occasion. “

    One day…not in the near future…but one day, likely on my deathbed…I expect Jeff Cameron to text me “You were right about Joe Flacco”.


    Eagles v. Cowboys
    "Still, I think Tony Romo has a lot of success in this one as the nails continue to be pounded into the coffin that is the Eagles nightmare season."

    No one plays better against lousy competition and posts more gaudy numbers against the lame and weak of the NFL than Tony Romo. To paraphrase the icon and WWF legend The Iron Sheik: “Tony Romo…better than nothing”.

    Giants @ Redskins
    “I expect a solid effort from the Redskins, but I’m backing the Giants because I believe the veteran team knows how important getting this win is considering their remaining schedule – New Orleans, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.”

    They did give a solid effort, but they’re out of sync on offense. I think losing their tight ends from last year is really affecting them. Say what you will about the guy who’s name I forgot, but he was a really tough player that could be depended on to make a tough catch on 3rd and 5.

    On a closing note, I have found that there are only two things really capable of stressing my marriage. Kids and money, you would perhaps posit? Oh, no. Those two things would be a tandem bicycle ride and a Christmas tree too big for two people to handle.


    TPE

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  3. “In this milieu, you show a level of competence in picking games and writing interesting prose. This means you have them trumped. They can neither run block nor pass block, and there is very little else, at least on the gridiron, for which an offensive lineman is suited.”

    Thanks TPE. The pathetic play by Packers OL just underscores how talented Aaron Rodgers is. No time, no blocking, but he still makes the best throws in the business.


    “This game was so inconsequential to me, that at the time I am writing this sentence, I do not remember who won.”

    Chan Gailey probably doesn’t either.


    “Well noted. Really good analysis of the similarities. However, are we really sure about this statement? “Chicago has the best defense of the four…”. The way I see it, if they don’t get turnovers, they become pretty good, not outstanding. From the front 4 to back 4 I think Seattle is better.”

    Maybe I’m giving Chicago too much credit. Seattle definitely plays the best at home, but I trust (or at least did a couple of weeks ago) Chicago more on the road.


    “I am going to expand one of your statements to make it a little more accurate: “If the Packers can’t keep Aaron Rodgers comfortable or at least upright and they struggle to contain Adrian Peterson, AND PONDER DOESN’T MAKE THE BONEHEAD THROWS THAT HAVE PLAGUED HIS SOPHMORE CAMPAIGNE, Minnesota will get the upset win.”

    Yeah, unfortunately you have to include the caveat. I’m not expecting the Vikings to give up on Ponder, but don’t be surprised if they get in on the Alex Smith bidding this offseason.


    “On the other hand, they were 0-12 at this time last year. It’s not quite true to say that Luck is the only difference, but when you see that kid with lineman all around or draped on him and he still delivers, it’s pretty impressive. Detroit has better players at just about every position on the field and their D-line was a matchup nightmare for the Colts; an inexcusable loss.”

    Luck is definitely the major reason this team is 8-4 and in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs. They’re a team that plays as a team. They were boatraced in three of their four losses, but the fact that a team that was such garbage last year actually has a legitimate shot of making the postseason is just amazing.


    “I couldn’t; I only had the one thought that it would not be worth watching.”

    Yeah at least Tennessee kept it watchable.


    “I would have suspended the game. As I understand it, Commissioner Goodell as the team what they wanted to do. In my opinion, that’s not leadership; that’s looking for a way to pass the buck to insure the game is played.”

    Sadly I think you’re right. There’s too much money to be made for them not to play that game. Thumbs up to the Chiefs for the hard fought win.


    “This was a trap scenario for SF. On the road. Some tape on Kaepernick. Division matchup. I though the 49ers would win, and should have given that their kicker had a makeable game winner, but I wasn’t much surprised at the outcome.”

    Poor execution by the Niners in all phases of the game, and Jeff Fisher is 2-0 in outcoaching Jim Harbaugh this season.

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  4. “That team misses Gronkowski an awful lot in the red zone. I should probably take a minute at some point to check out the overall health of that Patriot O-line. They didn’t quite have the cohesion I normally associate with their guys, although as is normally the case, they are still allowed to commit the most egregious displays of holding without penalty in the NFL.”

    Aaron Hernandez and Tom Brady couldn’t connect on what should have been a fairly simple red zone score early in the game. They just don’t look close to the top of their game at this point, but they’ve won six straight and can still finish as the #1 seed in the conference. Talk about high expectations. They’re supposed to get both of their guards back for this one, so that should help clean up things up front.


    “I would like to congratulate Mark Sanchez for officially wresting the title from Michael Vick as the “Shittiest Quarterback Ever To Wring Out Several Years’ Worth of Credibility From a Playoff Victory”. I never thought I would see a day come where Vick’s victory over the Packers in Green Bay was surpassed (by the way he was really average that game. GB turned the ball over something like 5 times. And to add a further tangent, only Ira Schoffel could believe 5 turnovers really don’t effect a game much, but never mind that for now).”

    Excellent moniker! Your boy Vick is thought to be the next QB of the Bills, so Buffalo, lock up your daughters and refill those prescriptions. Ugh, don’t remind me of that game.


    “And they were. I thought it was over when Freeman sailed one past Mike Williams and the Bucs had to settle for three. That throw is why I can never completely buy in to JF being the guy that will take Tampa past the better teams in the league. Brady, Rodgers and Manning between the three of them, miss a throw like that five times all year. Freeman does it once or twice a game.”

    I’d settle for Freeman reach a Matt Ryan level. It would be nice to line up Rodgers or Peyton under center, but I think Freeman can be the guy to win meaningful football games for this team. The key is to not ask him or for him to not try to be Rodgers or Peyton. I think they’re doing a fine job of building a well-rounded team. I expect that to continue this coming offseason with a focus on the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the secondary.


    “You always hear commentators say “THERE ARE NO VANDERBILT’S IN THE NFL! YOU AIN’T GOT DUKE ON THE SCHEDULE!”. True, but some teams have the Raiders. Twice.”

    Ha ha! Very well said my friend! That’s a team that is showing zero signs of being anything but a joke for the foreseeable future.


    “If I were A.J. Smith I would call Arizona or the Eagles and ask what they’d be willing to give up for Rivers. The Chiefs would be really interesting with him, but SD is not going to move him intra-division.”

    AJ better hurry up and make that call because he’s going to be out of a job in a month. With them cleaning house this upcoming offseason, I’ll be interested to see how they handle the coaching search as well as if you hear anything about Rivers being dangled in trades. Do you tie the new regime to Rivers, or do you let them find their guy and see what they can get for him?

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  5. “One day…not in the near future…but one day, likely on my deathbed…I expect Jeff Cameron to text me “You were right about Joe Flacco”.”

    It’s definitely one step forward one step back with that guy. I guess that’s just how it’s going to be with him. When he’s good, he’s good. When he’s bad, he’s bad.


    “No one plays better against lousy competition and posts more gaudy numbers against the lame and weak of the NFL than Tony Romo. To paraphrase the icon and WWF legend The Iron Sheik: “Tony Romo…better than nothing”.”

    Wow, didn’t see an Iron Sheik reference coming. That guy is either a pure genius or certifiably insane. I can’t make up my mind.


    “They did give a solid effort, but they’re out of sync on offense. I think losing their tight ends from last year is really affecting them. Say what you will about the guy who’s name I forgot, but he was a really tough player that could be depended on to make a tough catch on 3rd and 5.”

    I can’t remember the exact number, but when I was driving around this week I heard a stat about the Giants record under Coughlin before and after a certain date on the calendar. This is clearly a team of two seasons. They’re in yet another one of those funks right now, but I’m guessing they snap out of it a bit and eventually clinch the division.


    “On a closing note, I have found that there are only two things really capable of stressing my marriage. Kids and money, you would perhaps posit? Oh, no. Those two things would be a tandem bicycle ride and a Christmas tree too big for two people to handle.”

    Now that’s an image to behold! Seems like something you’d see in any number of Chevy Chase movies. As always, thanks for the conversation TPE!

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