Options at 9

The plan all franchises strive to follow every year is to fill roster holes in free agency while taking a best available talent approach and not getting pigeonholed into particular positions in the draft.  Resign your own free agents, and scan the market to address draft failures.  As I expected them to do, the Bucs addressed but did not necessarily solve their biggest areas of weakness in free agency.  Licht’s strategy of not being beholden to a signing after year two of the deal is something we all need to put in our memory banks for projecting offseason activity going forward.  Finding bargains isn’t the goal.  Avoiding crippling contracts is. 

Re-signing Doug Martin was their highest priority, and that was accomplished sensibly by both sides.  The Bucs did well to wrap it up before Martin hit the open market.  With the money Chris Ivory got, Martin could have played it out for more money.  If the Bucs don’t resign Bobby Rainey, they still need another RB that could play early down role.  That said, I’d be shocked if they spent anything higher than a R6 pick on the position, and even that would be a bit of a surprise. 

With Bradley McDougald, Keith Tandy, and Chris Conte resigned, the usual suspects will all return from last year.  Major Wright isn’t a roster lock now that Lovie’s gone.  McDougald ($2.5 mil) and Conte ($3 mil) are being paid as starting SS and FS, respectively, so I think they’re done in free agency.  I think they’ll start to look at the position in the draft as early as R3 for someone who can take over the FS position in ’17. 

The JR Sweezy acquisition is their best non-resign so far.  He replaces Logan Mankins at LG, giving the Bucs another young, big, athletic lineman.  He’s certainly more ideal than having Kevin Pamphile learn on the job.  The interior of the offensive line is good enough to head to camp, but I wouldn’t be opposed to a late round pick being spent on it. 

I’m fine with the Robert Ayers deal, given the available options and the understanding that the Bucs weren’t going to go crazy for Olivier Vernon.  I wanted William Hayes to be the guy they paired with William Gholston, but Ayers will do the trick.  What I like best about the Ayers/Gholston pairing is that both of those guys have interior ability.  Ayers alleviates the need for an inside guy to help Gerald McCoy push the pocket. 

I’m not a fan of the Brent Grimes deal.  His familiarity with Mike Smith will help, but the Bucs should have aimed higher.  I believe that a plan or model should allow for outliers, and if they were going to extend a bit somewhere, I would have liked them to do it here.  Sean Smith’s deal with OAK (4 yr, $38 mil) wasn’t at all exorbitant, and Casey Hayward signed inexpensively with San Diego (3 yr, $15.3 mil).  I would have even liked to have seen them in on Prince Amukamara (JAX 1 yr, $5 mil).  In addition to not being high on Grimes’ ability, the situation with his wife can’t be ignored either.  It’s a matter of when not if she becomes a distraction.  I just think there were/are plenty of better, more talented options to pursue.  Josh Robinson was a nice depth signing, but it won’t alter the Bucs draft plans one bit.  This is a position group I believe they should have set themselves up better with heading into the draft. 

Daryl Smith was just signed today on a one year deal.  That’s pretty much an expected move, a familiar face with scheme familiarity.  He’s probably got the inside track on the SLB job by default.  They’ll likely add another free agent linebacker and spend a draft pick on one. 

Turning our attention to pick #9, we’re not exactly sure which positions and players they’re highest on, but since we can eliminate QB, RB, TE, G, and C at the start, then a bit of work is already done for us. 

LB, WR, and S are unlikely as well.  Myles Jack isn’t falling to the Bucs, but if by some miracle he does, I’m sprinting to Goodell with his name on the card.  Would enough offensive and defensive lineman be drafted ahead of 9 that would make Laquon Treadwell or Corey Coleman serious options?  I doubt it, but I wouldn’t rule it out 100%.  The only one of these three positions I’d rule out for sure is safety because unless Jalen Ramsey is busted with hookers and blow on April 27, he’s not going to be there at 9.  No other safety is likely to go in R1 let alone the top ten. 

That means the player the Bucs take at 9 will, in all likelihood, play OT, DE, DT, or CB. 

Now let’s step through the first 8 picks.

1 – TEN – Jalen Ramsey

I’m switching from Laremy Tunsil.  Normally you wouldn’t take a DB over a LT, but I think there’s some decent reasoning to do so in this instance.  First off, call me biased, but I still have Ramsey as the best player in this draft.  I’m not alone in that opinion.  Second, the Titans have what is likely the league’s worst secondary.  Yes, even worse than Tampa Bay’s.  Lastly, Taylor Lewan is already one of the better LTs in the game.  They definitely need to do something at RT, but moving Lewan there probably isn’t the best move.  Aside from that not being his natural position (I think he played there one year Michigan), when his deal runs out after ‘17, they’d have to grossly raise the price of the RT market in order to keep him over someone who a team that could play him at LT.  I can’t blame anyone for going with Tunsil, but I believe that taking the draft’s best player to lead your worst position group and drafting a RT in R2 or R3 is the way to go.    

2 – CLE – Carson Wentz

There was talk of Colin Kaepernick wanting to play for Hue Jackson, but latest word is that he’s not inspired by their offseason.  He may be positioning for a better deal, or it may mean that Denver has a better chance of landing him.  I’ll take Denver over Cleveland in any contest, so the Browns will likely still need a QB when they’re on the clock.  I’m not convinced either Wentz or Goff is going to be an All Pro, but can the Browns really afford not to take a shot at the head of this year’s class?    

3 – SD – Laremy Tunsil

The Chargers are better off with King Dunlap as their third tackle, and drafting a stud LT like Tunsil is like adding another offensive weapon for Philip Rivers.  Depending on what Denver ends up doing on the offensive side of the ball the rest of this offseason, that division could be up for grabs in ’16.  Adding Tunsil and getting healthy seasons from guards Orlando Franklin and DJ Fluker would go a long way in helping Rivers get the ball downfield to Keenan Allen and their big free agent acquisition, Travis Benjamin. 

4 – DAL – Joey Bosa

I’ve got to think they take a defensive lineman here.  Greg Hardy won’t be back, Randy Gregory is suspended, and Demarcus Lawrence is coming back from a reportedly serious back surgery.  You can’t have too many pass rushers, and drafting Bosa would give them three young and relatively inexpensive ones.  If Bosa isn’t their guy, I’d go with Jack over Ezekiel Elliott. 

5 – JAX – Myles Jack

He’s the best player on the board and gives Jacksonville another stud to go with newly signed Malik Jackson and second year rookie Dante Fowler.  Jacksonville’s defense just got a ton better.  I could see them taking Bosa if Jack goes at 4 instead. 

6 – BAL – DeForest Buckner

For me this comes down to two players – Buckner and Ronnie Stanley.  Losing Kelechi Osemele was a big blow to the OL, but they still have Eugene Monroe at LT, the position Stanley would play.  Is cutting Monroe and drafting Stanley a better move than keeping Monroe and drafting a defensive building block?  I’d have a hard time saying yes.

7 – SF – Jared Goff

Trent Baalke and Chip Kelly are both unpredictable when it comes to personnel moves, but the way this board has played out gives them a shot at the local product.  Could they really take a tackle or wide receiver over Goff here?  I’m assuming Kaepernick isn’t in the equation for SF come the first night of the draft. 

8 – PHI – Ronnie Stanley

While Ezekiel Elliott would be a nice story, I think the Eagles will begin planning for life after Jason Peters (which I think starts in ‘17) by taking a LT.  Corner is a big area of need, but I don’t think Hargreaves, Alexander, Jackson, or Apple is worth a top 10 pick.  A defensive lineman wouldn’t surprise me, but I think Stanley is the way to go.

Recap –

1 – TEN – Jalen Ramsey

2 – CLE – Carson Wentz

3 – SD – Laremy Tunsil

4 – DAL – Joey Bosa

5 – JAX – Myles Jack

6 – BAL – DeForest Buckner

7 – SF – Jared Goff

8 – PHI – Ronnie Stanley

That might be the worst case scenario for the Bucs with the top talent at their greatest areas of need coming off the board.  While my predictions may not turn out to be correct, I like my chances of at least 6 of those players going in the top 8, and that’s really all that matters when it comes to projecting who will be available at 9.  My favorites of that group are Ramsey, Tunsil, Jack, and Stanley.  If any of them is available, we stop the discussion here and start thinking about #39. 

What’s the best of what’s left?

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State) – Not with Martin resigned; scratch him

Jack Conklin (T, Michigan State) – Best left at the position, but not best value

Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson) – Potential shoulder issue; does the Clemson stigma scare off the Bucs?

Emmanuel Ogbah (DE, Oklahoma State) – Is this too high for him? 

Kevin Dodd (DE, Clemson) – Clemson stigma and one year of production in college

Noah Spence (DE, E Kentucky) – Is his fall perceived or real?

Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State) & William Jackson III (CB, Houston) – This is too high for them, right? 

Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville) – Would he be best available in this scenario?

Who do they pick?  Let’s go through some more process of elimination.

I’m not a fan of taking any DB not named Jalen Ramsey in the top 10.  I’m not big on Hargreaves, and as I mentioned earlier, I think the upper echelon of the position is fairly even.  I’d rather the Bucs wait until later in the draft to draft a large corner who can learn behind Grimes and Banks. 

If you believe the guys at Pewter Report, the Bucs are a lot higher on Jacquies Smith than most fans are.  Whether or not you agree with the Bucs stance, this is something that can’t be ignored.  Point being, they may not view acquiring a pass rusher as their #1 priority.  Depth?  Yes.  But starter?  Maybe not.  If they wait until the middle rounds to take an edge rusher, it doesn’t mean they’re crazy.  It means they really like what they have in Smith. 

Knowing that, is Spence a risk the Bucs deem worth taking?  Is he not a risk at all, and this negative talk is just talk?  I’m sure teams’ opinions of this guy are all over the place, and I have no way of knowing how the Bucs feel about him.  All I can really say for sure is that I do not feel comfortable making him the pick any longer.  I’m not big on Lawson.  I don’t think he has a high enough ceiling for this spot, and there’s a recent report that he has to have his shoulder rechecked.    

If the Bucs do take a DE with this pick, I believe it will come down to Dodd and Ogbah.  Dodd has the Clemson thing going against him as well as the fact that he only had one big season in college, but I saw him as a consistent factor week in and week out this year.  I think Lawson benefitted more from him than vice versa.  Ogbah is intriguing.  I don’t believe he gets enough credit for the total package he brings, and with pro coaching, the sky could be the limit for this guy. 

It’s just that as I sit here right now, I’m having trouble convincing myself that taking either one would be the best use of this pick.  It’s like going to buy a car and leaving with the model you want but not the color you want.  All the way home you’re wondering if you made the right choice.  Then throw in the Bucs love of Smith.  Do they have an easy time passing on an end in this situation? 

I now go back and answer my question about Rankins.  Yes, I believe he is best available here.  I think his game compares very favorably to Geno Atkins, a stud who has been coached his entire career by Jay Hayes, the guy the Bucs brought in this offseason to coach up their front four.  Rankins addresses the need for an interior penetrator to pair with McCoy.  Yes, there’s depth at the DT position in this draft, but if I can get the best one, I’ll do it and be happy about it. 

This would lead me to go with a remaining draft of –

R2 (#39) – Shilique Calhoun (DE, Michigan State)

This assumes Dodd and Ogbah are off the board.  Calhoun is a speed rusher I think would make an excellent partner to Smith at the weak end position.  I think that he disappeared when getting overpowered, but he has a ton to work with if he can take to pro coaching.  Lot of potential here. 

R3 (#74) – Sterling Shepard (WR, Oklahoma)

Shepard is a smaller receiver with tremendous hands and concentration out of the slot.  He possesses ankle breaking stop-start ability and is an incredibly quick receiver.  I’d still love to draft Braxton Miller, but I’d feel better about addressing the DE position before R3 than I would WR, based on the available talent. 

There aren’t a lot of changes with the rest of my draft. 

R4 (#108) – Joe Schobert (LB, Wisconsin)

R5 (#148) – James Bradberry (CB, Samford)

R6 (#183) – Justin Simmons (FS, Boston College)

R6 (#197) – Joe Dahl (OL, Washington State)

I’ve still got Schobert as the LB to draft, and I think he’d make a nice student behind Daryl Smith at the SLB spot.  He could be a good fit as a pass rusher and in coverage depending on what Mike Smith wants to do.  Bradberry was my top alternate pick in R5 last time, and since I think Simmons can be a had a little later, I’ll now slot Bradberry in there as the guy to take.  The thought behind taking these two is that the Bucs would have that young, big corner to learn behind Banks and Grimes and a FS to back up / push Conte.  Dahl sticks as potential guard and tackle depth. 

Summary –

R1 (#9) – Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville)

R2 (#39) – Shilique Calhoun (DE, Michigan State)

R3 (#74) – Sterling Shepard (WR, Oklahoma)

R4 (#108) – Joe Schobert (LB, Wisconsin)

R5 (#148) – James Bradberry (CB, Samford)

R6 (#183) – Justin Simmons (FS, Boston College)

R6 (#197) – Joe Dahl (OL, Washington State)

They get two defensive linemen and two defensive backs, the areas I believe are in most need of long term attention.  The slot receiver void is addressed with a guy who would flourish in underneath zones created by Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.  A linebacker with pass rush and coverage skills and an offensive lineman with some position flexibility provide depth to an improved roster. 

Everyone will be thrilled if this year’s draft class is as impactful as last year’s.  I believe this grouping of players gives the Bucs guys who can make an instant impact and, as Mike Smith likes to do, take advantage of mismatches on that side of the ball.  It’s not a championship roster yet, but they’re headed in the right direction.