'09 NFL Predictions - AFC East

1) New England Patriots
(2008 Record: 11-5, 2nd place (lost 1st place tiebreaker to Miami))
Offense –
The Patriots played nearly the entire season without Tom Brady, yet the Patriots were a tiebreaker or two away from a another playoff spot and division crown. Well, he’s back, and he seems to be healthy. He hasn’t missed time in practice, and he’s already responded well to a shot on that knee. He may not touch 50 TDs again, but 35 is still a fine, reachable number. Is Kevin O’Connell ready to pull off a Matt Cassel-like performance should ’08 repeat itself?..........A couple of numbers for you – 23 and 11. Those are Randy Moss’ TD totals the last two years. While he may not repeat the 23 from ’07, the two superstars should connect quite a few more times than Moss and Cassel did last year. Brady completed nearly half (23 of 53) of his touchdowns in ’07 to Moss. The deep ball is back this year. Moss may be the more dangerous deep threat, but Wes Welker’s 223 receptions over the last two years leads the NFL for that period. Expect more of the same with Brady’s return. Joey Galloway is ahead of Greg Lewis in the race to be the third receiver, but I don’t expect either one to do better than Jabar Gafney did in that role. Rounding out Tom Brady’s passing targets are 4 average tight ends in Ben Watson, Chris Baker, Alex Smith, and David Thomas……….The backfield features 5 guys who could all see some starts. Fred Taylor was brought in from Jacksonville to finish his career; Laurence Maroney hasn’t been a terribly effective or healthy runner, and one has to wonder how much faith Belichick has in the guy; Kevin Faulk isn’t the best runner, but he gets the most touches due to his passing game skills; a healthy Sammy Morris probably gets the most carries; and despite doing well in spot duty last year, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is going to have a hard time making the team……….The Patriots return their same starters on the offensive line, led by LG Logan Mankins. They’re reliable, but it’s nearing time to put serious effort into restocking the offensive front; especially at the tackle spots. Intriguing rookie Sebastian Vollmer looks to provide backup to Matt Light and Nick Kaczur.

Defense –
They don’t come much better than Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren across the front. They’re entering their 9th, 6th, and 7th years respectively, all 22 with the Patriots. In addition to their tenures, the fact that Wilfork is in a contract year has to be a consideration. Big Ron Brace was added to the mix via the draft, and Mike Wright and Jarvis Green are veteran reserves……….The Patriots have a ton of bodies at LB and will try several guys in replacing Mike Vrabel. Jerod Mayo was money in his rookie season, and he returns alongside the combo of Teddy Bruschi and second year man Gary Guyton in the middle. Adalius Thomas is a beast outside, and the Patriots are 22-3 in games with him on the field. Back to replacing Vrabel. Play opposite Thomas will most likely drop off, but the combination of Pierre Woods, newly acquired Derrick Burgess, Tully Banta-Cain, and possibly Shawn Crable will attempt to soften the blow. Woods is the starter for now, as it’s likely to take some time for Burgess to make the transition to a new scheme. Don’t be surprised if Burgess takes over and plays well. It wouldn’t be the first former Raider the Pats have rehabbed……….In the secondary, the Patriots spent their first draft pick on the strong, versatile, and heady safety Patrick Chung. He’ll see the field a bit this year alongside James Sanders and Brandon Meriweather. Saunders doesn’t have the best ball skills, but he’s a reliable tackler. Meriweather gives them a playmaker who’s looking to improve on his 4 INTs last year. That’s a solid set of safeties. This offseason, the Patriots focused on shorting up their greatest weakness, the cornerback position, by bringing in veterans Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden. Springs may be 34 years old, but he can still hold is own in man to man coverage. Bodden is a guy I wanted the Bucs to go after this offseason, but he’ll be making plays in Foxboro instead. As if that wasn’t enough, the Patriots drafted Darius Butler from U Conn, a corner with great feet, hands, and change of direction. Add in two draftees from ’08 in Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite, and the New England’s looking pretty damn good in the coverage game.

Summary
I don’t see anyone in the division slowing them down this year. They’re re-focused and re-stocked, and I see them in the AFC title game, at least.

2) Miami Dolphins
(2008 Record: 11-5, 1st place)
Offense –
In the Phins’ first year under the Parcells/Sporano regime, the Dolphins pulled off a huge one year turnaround, going from 1-15 in ’07 to 11-5 this past season. After suffering through Cleo Lemon, Trent Green, and John Beck, the Dolphins were possibly the real winner of the Brett Favre derby. His landing in NY set up Chad Pennington’s release and eventual reunion with Parcells. Pennington started every game for Miami in ’08, throwing for more yards than he had in 7 previous seasons and finishing with his highest TD total since ’02. Pennington’s never been known as one of the best arms in the game, but he accumulated his ’08 stats by throwing to guys like Ted Ginn Jr, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, Anthony Fasano, and David Martin. There’s no reason to think he can’t/won’t repeat his success from last year. Pennington is firmly entrenched as the Dolphins’ starter, allowing Miami to slowly bring along future franchise QB Chad Henne. Miami also selected the electric Pat White in this year’s draft, and while things would have to get pretty bad in order for White to see snaps as QB in ’09, expect the Dolphins to get work him into their Wildcat plan……….Speaking of the Wildcat, what’s the first thing that comes to mind when you hear the term? For me it’s Ronnie Brown. When Miami unleashed the package on the NFL and the Patriots, it was Brown who did the damage; running for 113 yards and 4 TD as well as another passing TD to Fasano. While he’s sure to be a focal part of the Wildcat again in ’09, Brown is entering his second season post-ACL surgery, and the word is he’s in top shape. I expect even bigger things from him this year and for the Dolphins to widen the gap in carries between he and Ricky Williams………Miami’s receiving group still isn’t going to break any records, but one guy I think folks need to pay attention to is Davone Bess. The rookie from Hawaii quietly had a strong finish to the season, catching at least 6 passes in 4 of their last 5 games. I think he finishes the year as their leading receiver. Ted Ginn has shown flashes of talent, but that’s all they’ve been so far. He needs to develop some consistency. Greg Camarillo missed those last 5 games where Bess excelled, and he’s having a hard time coming back from his knee injury. The Dolphins added two rookies to the mix in Brian Hartline and Patrick Turner. Hartline has the edge at this early stage, and he appears to be pushing the starters for playing time. Fasano and Martin return at TE, giving Pennington two unspectacular yet steady, large targets in the middle of the field. How bad are things for Earnest Wilford? He’s currently listed at the 5th TE on Miami’s depth chart……….On the offensive line, the Dolphins had to like what they saw from Jake Long in his first year at LT. He’s going to man that spot for quite some time. This year’s big addition was the signing of Jake Grove to hold down the center spot; big improvement there. Justin Smiley and Vernon Carey are at least serviceable at LG and RT, and several fatties are battling it out at RG.

Defense –
The ageless Jason Ferguson returns to man the NT spot backed up by third year man Paul Soliai. Flanking him are second year guys Kendall Langford and Phillip Merling. They’re both expected to step up this year, and I think Langford is a guy that will surprise a lot of fans. If Merling struggles to hold onto the right end spot, last year’s free agent signing Randy Starks could see a lot of time there. Lionel Dotson is an end that I liked as a DT in college at Arizona. He’s expected to contribute as a reserve……….Big mouthed Joey Porter walked the walk as well last year, finishing second in the league with 17.5 sacks. He returns on the right side. Speaking of returning, Jason Taylor is back in town and has a good shot of starting on the left side. Last year’s starter, Matt Roth, is still on the PUP with a groin injury and doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for the start of the season. Also on the left side is Cameron Wake, a developmental player who totaled 23 sacks in the CFL last year. Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele return inside. Ayodele does all the little things, but the Dolphins want to see more out of Crowder……….Miami had a bit of turnover in the secondary, replacing Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill with a couple of rookies and Gibril Wilson. Will Allen starts at one corner spot. He won’t be confused for Champ Bailey, but Allen continues to do a good job of not giving up the big plays. Across from him, the Dolphins brought in two early draft picks in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. The latter seems to have the edge at this point. The disappointing, yet versatile, Jason Allen provides depth.

Summary
Expect more of the same from the Dolphins this year. I don’t see them overtaking the Patriots for a second year in a row, but they’ll be in the wildcard hunt.

3) Buffalo Bills
(2008 Record: 7-9, 4th place)

Offense –
The boring Bills added a little spice to things this offseason by bringing in the human swine flu, Terrell Owens. The teary-eyed wideout heads north to give the Bills another sorely needed threat at receiver. Everyone outside of Buffalo is waiting with baited breath for him Owens to explode, but he usually waits a year before taking a team down. The Bills don’t have the structure and strong personalities to at least try to keep Owens in check like the Eagles and Cowboys did. Things could get messy hear, unless Terrell has changed. Yeah, I know. I laughed typing that. Trent Edwards is the unquestioned starter, as JP Losman now wings it in the United Football League. Last year, Edwards had a nice season, sprinkled with some injury issues. That’s been the case throughout Edwards’ playing career. He was a talented passer at Stanford but had trouble staying on the field and ended up being a late third round pick. If he struggles with health again, things could get really interesting (see horribly, horrendously scary) in Buffalo. Backing up Edwards is Ryan “pop gun” Fitzpatrick. I’d buy tickets to watch those sideline conversations……….Illegal gun charges cost Marshawn Lynch the first 3 games of the ’09 season. The second year man from Cal put up his second 1,000 yard season despite missing the last game of the year. In addition to being the team’s leading rusher, Lynch was the Bills’ third leading receiver, catching 47 passes out of the backfield. During his absence, Fred Jackson will get the majority of the touches. Jackson finished ’08 by putting 136 yards on the Patriots, and the Bills are confident in his ability to carry the rock. Backing him up is former 1,000 yard rusher and reliable backup Dominic Rhodes. Last year Rhodes shared carries with Joseph Addai, putting up his highest TD total since ’01……….Owens isn’t one of the game’s elite receivers anymore, but I’m sure the Bills would take his 69-1052-10 totals from ’08. On one hand, Edwards is going to feel compelled to get Owens the ball as often as possible, so his targets will stay high. On the other hand, the Bills don’t have as many weapons as the Cowboys, and he’s not getting any younger. He’s struggled with drops, and he’s not separating as well anymore. Lee Evans benefits the most from Owens’ arrival, as he finally has a legit threat to take away some of the defense’s focus. Look for him to bust some big plays. Josh Reed is a nice third receiver, but they’re hurting behind him. Roscoe Parrish isn’t a receiving threat, and last year’s draftee James Hardy won’t be ready for the start of the season after having ACL surgery earlier this year. Derek Schouman and Southern Miss rookie Shawn Nelson replace Robert Royal at TE. Nelson is out of the Antonio Gates mold, but he at least gives a legit attempt at blocking. He should win the job outright at some point……….The offensive line is ugly and doesn’t return a single starter (position-wise) from last year. Langston Walker moves over to LT, replacing disgruntled Pro Bowler Jason Peters who was shipped to the Eagles. Big drop off there. I like rookies Eric Wood and Any Levitre. They’ll be pressed into action early at right and left guards respectively. Veteran backup guard/center Geoff Hangartner was brought in from Carolina and should help the rookies along. Rounding things out is Brad Butler who moves from RG to RT.

Defense –
Marcus Stroud and Kyle Williams form a nice tackle combo in the middle of the line. Good thing because former first round pick John McCargo has been nothing but a bust. Stroud got a new 4 year deal in the offseason, so the Bills are counting on him to produce quite a bit longer. Neither Williams nor Stroud gets to the QB on a regular basis, but they do shut down the middle of the line. Unfortunately the ends have a hard time applying constant pressure as well. Ryan Denney led the team with 4 sacks last year, and he’s not even a starter. LE Chris Kelsay shouldn’t be a starter, as he’s really struggled at getting in the backfield. Across from him is Aaron Schoebel, a nice pass rusher when healthy, who missed most of ’08 with the fun to say, hell to have Lisfranc sprain. To help in this area, the Bills spent their first round pick on the young underclassman from Penn State, Aaron Maybin, an exciting edge rusher. He just recently signed, so it’s going to take him a little time to get into a regular rotation……….Paul Posluszny is undoubtedly the best LB in Buffalo, and he’s a guy I expect to continue his forward progression. He’s going to be a good one for a long time. Kawika Mitchell and Keith Ellison are the starters flanking him, for now. Mitchell is a tough veteran who has the ability to play either the Will or Sam spots. Ellison was retained, but the Bills need more out of that position. Tough Nic Harris from Oklahoma was drafted to push him at linebacker……….Buffalo has two studs at corner in Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin. Jabari Greer signed with the Saints, so McKelvin won’t be splitting time with him. Donte Whitner is starting the year at FS with adequate Bryan Scott at SS. Second round pick Jarius Byrd, a college corner converting to safety, is dealing with a sports hernia, but I’m guessing that when he gets in shape, he’ll take over the FS spot, moving Whitner to SS.

Summary
The Bills have been a consistent 7-9 squad, and despite the addition of Owens, I’m not expecting a real playoff push from this team. Maybe they can finish ahead of Miami, but I’d be shocked if they’re contending for a wild card in the final weeks of the season.

4) New York Jets
(2008 Record: 9-7, 3rd place)
Offense –
The Brett Favre era lasted all of one year in New York, and the Jets are looking to replace him with a guy nearly half his age, 5th overall pick Mark Sanchez. The young QB from USC is competing with Kellen Clemens for starting duties, but I’ll be shocked if it’s not Sanchez. If he does start, it will make the third QB in 3 years that Clemens has sat behind……….Continuing the trend of 3, the Jets have a pretty formidable backfield this season with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and Shonn Greene. Jones has his doubters, but he keeps putting up yards every year. I’m not sure he’ll approach 300 carries again this year, but that’s not a bad thing. Leon is looking for and apparently close to getting a new contract. I expect him to be a bigger part of the offense this season. They could use his big play ability. Rounding out the backfield is the roundish rookie from Iowa. Greene won’t break any receiving records, but he’s a nice short yardage back who can move the pile. Look for new head coach Rex Ryan to get the most out of this group……….Laveranues Coles is in Cincinnati, so it’s up to Jerricho Cotchery to headline a group of no-name receivers. He’s a definite starter, but IMO, he’s better off as a secondary target. Slippery Chansi Stuckey looks to be one of the weaker #2 receivers around, and Brad Smith and David Clowney will play roles in the passing game as well. I expect him to see plenty of targets and finish as the team’s second leading receiver……….Along the line, the Jets return all their starters from ’08. Manning the middle is Nick Mangold, the center who is quickly becoming one of the league’s best. He earned his first of likely many trips to the Pro Bowl in ’08. Fellow ’06 draft pick D’Brickashaw Ferguson isn’t approaching the elite at his position as quickly as Mangold, and ’09 could dictate whether he is still developing or is basically what he is, a solid, non-dominating tackle. Alan Faneca isn’t young anymore, but he and Brandon Moore combine to give the Jets a bruising pair of guards. Damien Woody mans the RT spot.

Defense –
Big Kris Jenkins is dealing with a calf injury, but he should be ready to occupy the middle of the defensive line by the start of the regular season. Shaun Ellis’ still starts at LE, but his marijuana arrest has him suspended for the first game of the season. At RE the Jets are starting Marques Douglas, one of three Ravens who followed Ryan to New York. Douglas is better off as a rotational player, and all three starters are at least 30. The Jets only had 3 draft picks this year and didn’t use any them on a defensive lineman……….At the next level, the Jets have another suspended player. Calvin Pace will miss the first 4 games of the year as a result taking a banned substance. In his place will be Vernon Gholston, the second year man attempting to make himself visible after a pathetic ’08 season. Bryan Thomas is adequate at the other OLB spot. Bart Scott follows Ryan to New York and teams with David Harris to get the Jets two physical, consistent forces inside……….Darrelle Revis is the best corner no one knows about. The Pitt product made his first of many Pro Bowls this past season. To play across from him, the Jets traded for Lito Sheppard, a corner with talent but one who was unable to stay in the Philly lineup. Dwight Lowery started most of the season at that position, but this year he looks to compete with free agent Donald Strickland for nickel duties. At safety, Jim Leonard made the third Raven to migrate north this offseason. He starts at SS, and Jet vet Kerry Rhodes plays the FS position. The secondary should be a strength of the team this year.

Summary
I don’t think they’ll be awful, but someone has to finish last in this division. The receiving game lacks a true #1 target, and playing without Calvin Pace for ¼ of the season doesn’t help. That said, even though I have the Phins, Bills, and Jets at 2-3-4, it wouldn’t shock me to see it reversed. These teams should finish within 3 games of each other.


Division Awards
MVP – Tom Brady
Offensive POY – Ronnie Brown
Defensive POY – Paul Posluszny (barely over Jerod Mayo)
Rookie of the Year – Mark Sanchez

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