'09 NFL Predictions - AFC North

1) Pittsburgh Steelers
(2008 Record: 12-4, 1st place, Super Bowl champs)
Offense –
The defending champs return strong. I’m not a fan of Ben Roethlisberger’s taste in women, but I can appreciate two Super Bowl titles at the age of 27. What might be of bigger concern is that he’s dealing with an Achilles injury caused by big Max Starks rolling into him. Assuming it’s nothing significant, a repeat could be more reality than reach……….I’ve never been a big Willie Parker fan, but there are worse starters in the league. I just wonder how he’d do on a lesser team. He doesn’t get the goal line carries, but he should have scored more than 7 TDs over the last 2 seasons. He also hasn’t been much of a factor in the passing game. Last year the Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall, a 3 down back well suited for Pittsburgh’s offense. Unfortunately, he spend most of his rookie season on IR with a fractured shoulder. Parker missed 5 games last season, and Mendenhall missed his chance to shine. Also in the mix is veteran Mewelde Moore; a solid pass catcher who is well suited for his role in this offense……….Surprisingly (at least to me), Hines Ward put up his best numbers in 4 years last season. He finished ’08 a little banged up, and he’s not 23 anymore. He’s still the Steelers’ #1, but maybe this is the year the torch is passed. How Santonio Holmes plays will help determine that. The Super Bowl MVP is capable of producing big plays, but I think the Steelers are going to count on him to increase his 55 reception total from last season. Expect him to get more targets. With Nate Washington leaving for Tennessee, Limas Sweed looks to take over the 3rd receiver spot. Despite a very quiet rookie season, word has Sweed looking impressive in camp. It wasn’t that long ago Sweed was making big plays for the Longhorns. The Steelers spent another draft pick on a receiver this year, bringing in speedy Mike Wallace from Mississippi. As long as he’s in Pittsburgh, Heath Miller will never lead his position in receptions. That’s not to say he’s incapable, but due to his solid all-round game, which includes being one of (if not the best) blocking TEs in the game, the Steelers don’t mind keeping him in at time and providing Big Ben with another reliable blocker up front……….Speaking of blockers, I’m not a big fan of their guys up front. Max Starks has been rewarded year after year (monetarily) for being a good backup lineman. Now he’s being counted on to start and protect Roethlisberger’s blind side. At the other tackle spot is Willie Colon, a fine run blocker but a guy who struggles against good pass rushers. First year starter Chris Kemoeatu was allowed to test the free agent market before re-signing, and despite a down year for free agent guards, Kemo drew little attention. Darnell Stapleton, another second year starter, starts again at RG. He’s not the biggest interior lineman in the game, and he’s also dealing with a knee injury this preseason. The Steelers drafted Kraig Ubrik, a big rookie from Wisconsin, and he may be in the lineup sooner than they had hoped. Justin Hartwig performed admirably in his first year as a Steeler and is playing for a bigger contract this season.

Defense –
Casey Hampton is a fine nose man when he’s got his weight in check. He’s in a contract year, and with him turning 32 soon, I’d expect this position to get some attention next offseason. Flanking him are Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel. Smith is still a beast at LE, but he’s a year older than Hampton. Like Hampton, Keisel is entering a contract year and will be 31 before September ends. Travis Kirschke is older than all of them but provides a nice rotational/backup guy. To begin re-stocking this line, the Steelers drafted impressive Ziggy Hood from Missouri. He’s a high motor, physical guy who should fit in quite well with the Steelers……….At linebacker, Pittsburgh fields (IMO) the best group in the business. I think James Farrior is in on every single defensive play for these guys. Who couldn’t use a 34 year old with his skills? Lining up next to him inside is Lawrence Timmons, one of my breakout candidates for ’09. I think he’ll easily make up for the loss of Larry Foote. Having these guys around Timmons will allow the Steelers to let him play loose this year. He’s tremendously athletic and should do a much better job getting in the backfield than Foote did (Timmons had 18 TFL in his last year as a Nole). Expect to hear his name a lot this season. At one outside spot is LaMarr Woodley, a bruiser who finished his second season with 11.5 sacks. Then he went out and put up another stunning 6 in the playoffs! He’s good. Rounding out the group is a monster in shoulder pads. How’s this for some highlights – 1) He set the franchise single season sack record with 16; 2) He was named the NFL Defensive POY; and 3) He single-handedly changed the momentum of the Super Bowl with his first half interception that he took back 100 yards for a TD. That dude seriously scares the hell out of me……….Pittsburgh let Bryant McFadden walk to the Cardinals, and I’m not sure I agree with that move. No, they didn’t have a lot of cap space, but reliable corners aren’t cheap. McFadden “only got $10 million for 2 years from Arizona. I do like his replacement, William Gay, but their depth takes a hit. Ike Taylor is solid at the other corner spot. Deshea Townsend is old and fighting for a roster sot. If he goes, they’re looking at rookies Keenan Lewis (a guy I really like) and Joe Burnett early on. There’s a depth issue at safety as well. Troy Polamalu is a force all over the field, and if Ryan Clark is recovered from off-season shoulder surgery, they’re fine. Anthony Smith headed to Green Bay, and Tyronne Carter is fine in a reserve role but shouldn’t be relied upon to play over any substantial length of time.

Summary
Looking at their schedule, a repeat of 12-4 might be setting the bar too low. This team is well coached, well focused, and hungry for a repeat. I like their chances.

2) Baltimore Ravens
(2008 Record: 11-5, 2nd place, Wild Card)
Offense –

The men in purple came within a game of reaching the Super Bowl, and again I’ve got them finishing second to the Steelers. John Harbaugh couldn’t have asked for a much better first season as a head coach (at any level). Fellow first yearer(?) Joe Flacco finished the season 9-2 in the Ravens’ last 11 games. I think Cam Cameron handled him perfectly in his rookie year, implementing game plans that reduce Flacco’s risk of costly errors. Expect the book to be expanded a bit this year. That said I think he’s at quite a greater risk of regressing that fellow first round QB Matt Ryan. I’m not calling for it, but if it happens, I told you so……….I think I like this three headed backfield better the one in New York. They ran the ball more than any other team in the game last year, and they’re likely to do it again. Willis McGahee had the lead role in ’08, but he was injured, inconsistent, and had the least productive year of his career. This year he’s coming off offseason knee and ankle surgeries. I like Ray Rice even with a healthy McGahee. He’s getting the first team reps, and if they feature him, I love his chances to put up big numbers. He runs hard every carry and is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Le’Ron McClain probably won’t duplicate 900 yards and 10 TD this year seeing as how he’s slated to play FB, but he’ll likely get most of the short yardage carries……….I don’t have many good things to say about the receiving options. Derrick Mason flirted with retirement this offseason and is coming off a shoulder injury. He’s still a quality performer, but there’s very little behind him. Can he be counted on to put up another 1,000 yards? Mark Clayton is supposed to be the #2 receiver, but he’s never developed as expected and is currently dealing with hamstring problems. Demetrius Williams is an incomplete receiver, Yamon Figurs is a return man, and Marcus Smith is already on IR. Given that Flacco was a rookie, I expected Todd Heap to be used often as a safety valve. That didn’t materialize, and Heap finished with his second disappointing year (numbers-wise) in a row. He’s also seemingly constantly banged/nicked up with various injuries but is “only” 29 years old. The Ravens signed LJ Smith, who has a lot of similarities to Heap (aging, pass catching role reducing, various injuries) to be his backup. Smith left his best years in Philly. Davon Drew, rookie from LSU, may have to contribute early is history is any indicator. Not a lot to like here……….Up front the Ravens have gotten a bit younger, but not necessarily worse the last couple of offseasons. Gone are tackles Jonathan Ogden and Willie Anderson. In their place are Jared Gaither and Michael Oher, a steal at #23 overall in this year’s draft. Veteran center Matt Birk was lured away from the Vikings. He’s no spring chicken, but the man hasn’t missed a start in over 3 years. Flanking Birk, are Ben Grubbs and Chester Taylor. Grubbs was a tackle convert upon entering the league, and after easily establishing himself in Baltimore, he looks like he’ll be around for quite a while. Taylor is ideally a reserve interior lineman, but starter Marshal Yanda is still out recovering from a pretty bad knee injury sustained last season. With a team that depends upon the run as much as the Ravens are likely to do yet again, the line needs to be a real strength. This one is.

Defense –
Those paying attention this offseason have noticed the Ravens seemingly bucking their traditional 3-4 base for a 4-3. There aren’t any significant changes as a result. The main difference is that Terrell Suggs will spend most of his time in a three point stance as an end. He finally got a long term deal from the Ravens and won’t have to deal with that pesky franchise tag again. At the other end spot is Trevor Pryce, a productive veteran, who just turned 34. To assist in the transition, the Ravens drafted Paul Kruger from Utah in the second round. Kruger brings a lot of what the Ravens love including a high motor pass rushing and explosive tackling abilities. Dwan Edwards is perfect depth. Inside at one spot is a huge beast of a man. Haloti Ngata has been everything the Ravens had hoped for when they made him the 12th pick of the ‘06 draft. He’s nearly 350 pounds and athletic as hell. Not only can he destroy a play at the line of scrimmage, he can chase down 99% of the runners in this league. The sky is the limit for this guy. Kelly Gregg manned the NT spot in the 3-4, and if he’s fully recovered from knee surgery, he’ll be another inside force. Justin Bannon is a nice rotational player……….Ray Lewis flirted with the Jets this offseason but eventually signed what will likely be his last NFL contract to stay in Baltimore. Although I wouldn’t say it to the man’s face, he’s lost at least a step, which still has him well better than the average LB. Second year player Tavares Gooden gets the first shot at replacing Bart Scott. Gooden is a pretty athletic backer, who if “protected” by Lewis, could produce some big plays on defense. If he can’t win the job, Jameel McClain, a steady yet unspectacular linebacker, looks to be the beneficiary. Rounding out the linebackers is Jarret Johnson. It’s hard to get exposure on a defense with guys like Lewis, Scott, Suggs, Ngata, Reed, and Rolle, but I really like what I see from Jarrett Johnson when I watch Ravens’ games. The man is a very sound tackler who swarms to the ball with the best of them. He’s a pretty punishing hitter who uses all of his 6-3, 270 frame……….Leading the back of the defense is All-World Ed Reed. He’s a lot of fun to watch with the ball in his hands, always looking for a way to break a play for 6. It’s like he knows where the QB is going to throw the ball before even he (the QB ) does. He’s one of the best football players I’ve ever seen. Returning next to him is Dawan Landry, a tough, likeable teammate who suffered a pretty nasty spinal cord concussion last year. I’m not terribly excited about the returning corners. I like both starters Fabian Washington and Dominique Foxworth as third corners, and Samari Rolle is literally on his last leg, playing in 16 games over the last 2 years. Sleeper rookie Lardarius Webb might see action early on.

Summary
I’m not looking for a fall off here, but I don’t see a reason to put them ahead of the Steelers. If they had made receiver or corner more of a priority (sound familiar Bucs fans?) I’d at least have a reason to consider it. Expect another year of conservative, yet wise playcalling from Cam Cameron. They’re definitely in consideration for a wild card spot.

3) Cincinnati Bengals
(2008 Record: 4-11-1, 3rd place)
Offense –
In what will likely be the biggest gap/disparity from 2nd and 3rd place divisional teams, the Bengals end the year “just” behind the Ravens. Last year was another forgettable one for Cincinnati, finishing 3rd in the division and with the 3rd worst record in the AFC. Aside from being a bad franchise, losing Carson Palmer in October is a good way to have your season go south. Ryan Fitzpatrick tried to keep them competitive, but it wasn’t happening. Palmer returns after missing 12 games last year due to injuring elbow ligaments in his throwing arm. He’s reportedly firing the ball well, but he’s now dealing with a high ankle sprain; reportedly nothing major but something that could linger. Knowing the Bengals’ karma, my glass is half empty. JT O’Sullivan was brought in to be the #2, and he’s only marginally better than Fitzpatrick. Brother Jordan is 3rd on the depth chart……….Cedric Benson returns in the backfield, and he didn’t fare too poorly last year considering the surrounding cast. I’m intrigued to see how he does with a healthy Palmer behind center to force defenses to stay honest. They better hope Benson stays healthy because Brian Leonard and DeDe Dorsey are his backups……….#1 receiver TJ Houshmandzadeh left for Seattle, so the Bengals signed Laveranues Coles to take his place. I’d rather have Housh, but “Trouble” is usually a good bet for 70 catches and 6 or 7 scores. Not a bad replacement. Chad Ochocinco had a brutal ’08, and most of that can be traced to relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw the ball over 20 yards. He finished ’08 with 40 less receptions than the previous season. I wish he’d focus a little more on football than marketing himself, but I’m not about to put all the blame on him for that ugly season. With Palmer back and Coles opposite him, there’s no reason to think he can’t approach 80+ catches yet again. Call me a believer. As I write this, Chris Henry has yet to be suspended again, so maybe he’ll actually contribute this year. Second year man Andre Caldwell apparently has the 3rd receiver job wrapped up with an impressive offseason. They’ll need he and Henry to be productive because Jerome Simpson doesn’t appear ready to contribute. The Bengals already lost #1 TE Reggie Kelly to a torn Achilles and are facing the possibility of being without Ben Utecht as well due to a history of concussions. The Bengals drafted pass catching TE Chase Coffman from Missouri this year, but he’s not ready to be a 3 down player. Those of you who’ve watched this year’s Hard Knocks know he’s got a ways to go as a blocker. Daniel Coats is the starter for now, and he’s basically a glorified lineman……….Up front, the Bengals are an unfinished product. Andrew Whitworth moves over to LT replacing Levi Jones who is without a job. At the other tackle spot is Anthony Collins, a second year player from Kansas. I personally don’t think he fits on the right side, as his athleticism and lack of real bulk would better suit him on the left side. First round pick Andre Smith is still a holdout, but when he signs I’m sure he’ll become the immediate starter at RT. It’s pretty ugly in the middle. Nate Livings and Bobbie Williams leave a lot to be desired at left and right guard, and Kyle Cook is untested.

Defense –
The most telling this about this Bengals defense is that they finished tied for 30th in the league last year with a measly 17 sacks. The unit returns free agent bust Antwan Odom and Robert Geathers at the ends. The duo put up 3 sacks each, and both battled injuries; Odom’s shoulder and Geathers’ knee. 3rd round steal Michael Johnson adds much-needed athleticism to the pass rush. Don’t be surprised if he’s playing ahead of Odom early in the year. They need to see what he’s got. Inside, neither Pat Sims nor Domata Peko is going to get to the QB with regularity, but those two did a really fine job against the run last year. In a head scratching move (at least to me) the Bengals signed Tank Johnson to be a part of the rotation……….Keith Rivers was off to a great start as a rookie last year but had his season cut rudely short on a blindside block by Hines Ward. He’s back and healthy at one outside spot, and I expect him to pick up where he left off. This year the Bengals drafted his USC teammate Rey Maualuga who is currently backing up Rashad Jeanty at the SLB spot. Rey will (should) be a MLB at some point, but that job belongs to veteran Dhani Jones for now. I doubt Rey finishes the year as a backup……….Leon Hall is Cincinnati’s best corner, and yes, that’s supposed to be a compliment. He could probably put up some dangerous numbers if the front four produced any semblance of a pass rush. Opposite him is Jonathan Joseph, a guy who could be pretty good in his own right if he can stay healthy and consistent. David Jones and Jamar Fletcher are mediocre backups. It could be a long year at the back of the secondary for the Bengals. Starters Chris Crocker and former Cowboy Roy Williams are both big hitters with a history of poor coverage skills. Big plays aplenty?

Summary
Cincinnati is only going as far as Palmer takes them, and not even he is going to make them competitive this year. They should put up more points this year, but I’m not sure the defense is going to help them out a ton.

4) Cleveland Browns
(2008 Record: 4-12, 4th place)
Offense –
Snitch Mangini is now running the show in Cleveland, and boy did he get off to a good start. It took him about 5 seconds to piss off the team’s best defensive player, Shaun Rogers. The are guy that are too cute for their own good, and Mangini is one of them. He’s doing his best to ruin both his QBs this preseason, being vague as hell and refusing to put out a depth chart for the position. IMO, Brady Quinn would have to fall on his face to not get the job. You’ve got to think the Browns’ brass wants to know if he’s got what it takes. It’s hard to judge Quinn at this point, as he only saw action in 3 games last year before spending the last 5 games on IR with a broken index finger on his throwing hand. I don’t think Derek Anderson is as bad as he showed last season, but I’m even surer that he’s not going to throw 29 TD in a year again like he did in ’07. I expect Quinn to get the job, but neither one is going to the Pro Bowl this year……….I think Jamal Lewis is going to have a hard time reaching 1,000 yards again. You’d like to think the line will perform better, but Lewis isn’t getting any younger. Jerome Harrison has been around a while in a reserve role, but I’ve never been impressed with his game. Rookie James Davis is getting a lot of good PR this preseason, and given their situation and Davis’ skills, I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw a good chunk of carries this year……….The receiver situation isn’t encouraging, and it doesn’t help that #1 Braylon Edwards had a huge drop (pun intended) off from his 80 catch 1,300 yard ’07 season. A guy with his talent has no business being as inconsistent as he’s been. There were whispers of him becoming a NY Giant during the offseason, but that obviously didn’t happen. Given the QB situation, the Browns can’t afford to have their #1 weapon be a complete no show for half the season. The #2 receiver spot will come down to Mike Furrey or Josh Cribs. Encouraging right? The Browns drafted Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie this year to add some talent to the position. I like Robiskie, but he’s having trouble breaking the lineup this preseason. David Patten returns to Cleveland after 8 years in New England, Washington, and New Orleans. With Kellen Winslow dealt to Tampa Bay, the Browns signed Robert Royal, who’s currently the starter at TE. Steve Heiden is a decent backup, and Martin Rucker is the receiving threat of the bunch……….It’s a tale of two sides with Cleveland’s offensive line. Hard to find any problems with Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach on the left side. The duo completed their second year together at LT and LG respectively and were easily their best blockers up front. Hank Fraley’s still listed as the starting center, but I can’t see it taking long for first round pick Alex Mack to get the job. Mack has a really nice size/athleticism combo and was know as a great commander of the offensive line at Cal. Starting RG Rex Hadnot suffered a torn ACL this preseason and is done for the year. In his place is Pork Chop Womack. Ugh. With a dire need for a RT, the Browns signed Bear vet John St. Clair. He’s 32, and his backup, Ryan Tucker, is 34.

Defense –
1 stud and a bunch of question marks. There’s not much to say about Shaun Rogers. He’s a mountain of a man who does more than just clog lanes. Rogers led the Browns in sacks last year with 4.5. Last year’s big acquisition, Corey Williams, suffered though a shoulder injury and poor production at one DE spot. There are whispers that he could be on the move. He’s probably better of as a 4-3 DT, but their depth is already pretty bad. As one of about 50 players Mangini brought with him from the Jets, Kenyon Coleman is expected to start at LE. He’s not bad, but I think this ’08 performance is about what you should expect from him. Robaire Smith lost his job to Coleman and is dealing with an Achilles injury. CJ Mosely, another ex-Jet, will work into the rotation as well……….Willie McGinest retired, but no worries, Mangini found another ex-Jet to plug in there. David Bowens will play outside, but don’t expect many big plays from him. At the other OLB spot, is Kamerion Wimbley, a guy the Browns were hoping to get more out of last year. I didn’t follow them a ton last year, but a guy like Wimbley doesn’t just lose his athleticism at 25 years of age. They don’t have many playmakers on this defense, so they’d be wise to move him around, take advantage of opportunities. Their most productive defender is D’Qwell Jackson, the ILB who led the NFL in tackles last year. He’s in a contract year, so the Browns might want to start thinking extension. Who starts at the other ILB position? You guessed it, another New Yorker. Barton’s a solid vet, but he’ll be 32 in September……….Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald make up one of the worst corner combos in the league. Throw in nickel man Rod Hood who was signed from Arizona, and that’s a poor group. They waited until late in the draft to address the position, but they did get Coye Francies, an athletic, high energy guy from San Jose State that I was/am really really high on. Their safeties are junk too. Abram Elam makes it four ’08 Jets expected to start (5 to contribute) on defense for the Browns. Some think he’s a good safety, but Mangini loves him. Brodney Pool is a non-factor FS.

Summary
This team is going to suck out loud in ’09. They can’t find a QB, half of their OL is junk, their only receiver is a league leader in drops, and their defense is littered with questions. The cherry on top is that they brought in a buffoon coach them.


Division Awards
MVP – Ben Roethlisberger
Offensive POY – Ray Rice
Co-Defensive POY – James Harrison and Haloti Ngata
Rookie of the Year – Rey Maualuga