Saturday, February 19, 2011

2011 NFL Draft - Prospect Rankings Update

Here's a quick update, not a ton of changes. I'll have at least two more updates (likely monthly) prior to the draft. As always, these rankings reflect my confidence in their potential as pros, not necessarily the order in which they'll be drafted.

1 – Jake Locker (Washington)
2 – Christian Ponder (FSU)
3 – Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
4 – Ryan Mallett (Arkansas)
5 – Colin Kaepernick (Nevada)
6 – Cam Newton (Auburn)
7 – Andy Dalton (TCU)
8 – Ricky Stanzi (Iowa)
9 – Pat Devlin (Delaware)
10 – Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech)
11 – Greg McElroy (Alabama)

1 – Mikel Leshoure (Illinois)
2 – Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech)
3 – Mark Ingram (Alabama)
4 – Jordan Todman (Connecticut)
5 – DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma)
6 – Shane Vereen (California)
7 – Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State)
8 – Derrick Locke (Kentucky)
9 – Jacquizz Rodgers (Oregon State)
10 – Daniel Thomas (Kansas State)
11 – Bilal Powell (Louisville)
12 – Delone Carter (Syracuse)
13 – Graig Cooper (Miami)
14 – Jamie Harper (Clemson)
15– Noel Devine (West Virginia)
16 – Dion Lewis (Pittsburgh)
17 – Stevan Ridley (LSU)
18 – Roy Helu Jr. (Nebraska)
19 – Taiwan Jones (Eastern Washington)
20 – Da’Rel Scott (Maryland)

1 – AJ Green (Georgia)
2 – Julio Jones (Alabama)
3 – Torrey Smith (Maryland)
4 – Titus Young (Boise State)
5 – Randall Cobb (Kentucky)
6 – Leonard Hankerson (Miami)
7 – Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh)
8 – Jerrel Jernigan (Troy)
9 – Greg Little (UNC)
10 – Austin Pettis (Boise State)
11 – Dwayne Harris (ECU)
12 – Vincent Brown (San Diego State)
13 – Niles Paul (Nebraska)
14 – Terrance Tolliver (LSU)
15 – Tandon Doss (Indiana)
16 – Cecil Shorts III (Mount Union)
17 – Ronald Johnson (USC)
18 – Greg Salas (Hawaii)
19 – Darvin Adams (Auburn)
20 – Ryan Whalen (Stanford)

1 – DJ Williams (Arkansas)
2 – Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame)
3 – Luke Stocker (Tennessee)
4 – Lance Kendricks (Wisconsin)
5 – Rob Housler (FAU)
6 – Virgil Green (Nevada)
7 – Mike McNeill (Nebraska)
8 – Andre Smith (Virginia Tech)
9 – Weslye Saunders (*South Carolina)
10 – Charlie Gantt (Michigan State)

1 – Anthony Castonzo (Boston College)
2 – Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin)
3 – Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State)
4 – Tyron Smith (USC)
5 – Nate Solder (Colorado)
6 – Benjamin Ijalana (T/G, Villanova)
7 – Joseph Barksdale (LSU)
8 – Jason Pinkston (T/G, Pittsburgh)
9 – DeMarcus Love (T/G, Arkansas)
10 – Marcus Gilbert (Florida)
11 – Chris Hairston (Clemson)
12 – James Brewer (Indiana)
13 – James Carpenter (T/G, Alabama)
14 – Derek Newton (Arkansas State)

1 – Rodney Hudson (G, FSU)
2 – Mike Pouncey (G, Florida)
3 – Stefen Wisniewski (C, Penn State)
4 – Danny Watkins (G/T, Baylor)
5 – Marcus Cannon (G/T, TCU)
6 – John Moffitt (G, Wisconsin)
7 – Lee Ziemba (G/T, Auburn)
8 – Clint Boling (G, Georgia)
9 – Will Rackley (G, Lehigh)
10 – Orlando Franklin (G/T, Miami)
11 – Stephen Schilling (G, Michigan)
12 – Tim Barnes (C, Missouri)
13 – Jake Kirkpatrick (C, TCU)
14 – Kristofer O’Dowd (C, USC)
15 – Justin Boren (G, Ohio State)
16 – Bryant Browning (G, Ohio State)

1 – Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson)
2 – Robert Quinn (UNC)
3 – JJ Watt (Wisconsin)
4 – Cameron Jordan (California)
5 – Adrian Clayborn (Iowa)
6 – Justin Houston (DE/OLB, Georgia)
7 – Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue)
8 – Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)
9 – Christian Ballard (DT/DE, Iowa)
10 – Jabaal Sheard (Pittsburgh)
11 – Allen Bailey (Miami)
12 – Greg Romeus (Pittsburgh)
13 – Pernell McPhee (Mississippi State)
14 – Sam Acho (Texas)
15 – Cliff Matthews (DE/OLB, South Carolina)
16 – Pierre Allen (Nebraska)
17 – Markus White (FSU)

1 – Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
2 – Nick Fairley (Auburn)
3 – Corey Liuget (Illinois)
4 – Stephen Paea (Oregon State)
5 – Drake Nevis (LSU)
6 – Phil Taylor (Baylor)
7 – Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple)
8 – Jurrell Casey (USC)
9 – Marvin Austin (UNC)
10 – Jarvis Jenkins (Clemson)
11 – Sione Fua (Stanford)
12 – Lawrence Guy (Arizona State)
13 – Jerrell Powe (Mississippi)
14 – Ian Williams (Notre Dame)
15 – Kendrick Ellis (Hampton)

OLB (4-3 and 3-4)
1 – Von Miller (Texas A&M)
2 – Aldon Smith (DE/OLB, Missouri)
3 – Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
4 – Bruce Carter (UNC; inj.)
5 – Jeremy Beal (DE/OLB, Oklahoma)
6 – Dontay Moch (DE/OLB, Nevada)
7 – Brooks Reed (DE/OLB, Arizona)
8 – Mark Herzlich (Boston College)
9 – Mason Foster (Washington)
10 – Colin McCarthy (Miami)
11 – Lawrence Wilson (Connecticut)
12 – KJ Wright (Mississippi State)
13 – Ross Homan (Ohio State)
14 – Chris Carter (DE/OLB, Fresno State)
15 – Doug Hogue (Syracuse)
16 – Wayne Daniels (DE/OLB, TCU)
17 – Thomas Keiser (Stanford)

1 – Greg Jones (Michigan State)
2 – Quan Sturdivant (UNC)
3 – Nate Irving (NC State)
4 – Martez Wilson (Illinois)
5 – Kelvin Sheppard (LSU)
6 – Casey Matthews (Oregon)
7 – Mike Mohamed (California)
8 – Josh Bynes (Auburn)
9 – Alex Wujciak (Maryland)
10 – Chris White (Mississippi State)

1 – Patrick Peterson (LSU)
2 – Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)
3 – Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
4 – Ras-I Dowling (Virginia)
5 – Aaron Williams (Texas)
6 – Rashad Carmichael (Virginia Tech)
7 – Brandon Harris (Miami)
8 – Davon House (New Mexico State)
9 – Curtis Brown (Texas)
10 – Johnny Patrick (Louisville)
11 – Kendrick Burney (North Carolina)
12 – Brandon Burton (Utah)
13 – Jalil Brown (Colorado)
14 – Chimdi Chekwa (Ohio State)
15 – Marcus Gilchrist (Clemson)
16 – Shareece Wright (USC)

1 – Deunta Williams (UNC; inj.)
2 – Quinton Carter (Oklahoma)
3 – Rahim Moore (UCLA)
4 – DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson)
5 – Robert Sands (West Virginia)
6 – Tyler Sash (Iowa)
7 – Ahmad Black (Florida)
8 – Jeron Johnson (Boise State)
9 – Jaiquawn Jarrett (Temple)
10 – Jermale Hines (Ohio State)


  1. I've heard two hosts on Sirius NFL have Akeem Ayers going to the Bucs. I had figured Kerrigan or Pouncey if either was there, but I see you have Kerrigan really low on the list of DEs. What do you not like about him, besides that he plays in a weaker conference and didn't do much against the better teams in the Big 10...uh...sorta answering my own question, but what is your take?


  2. I’m not sure what logic got them to linking Ayers with the Bucs, but I can’t see him ending up here. I’m not sold on his overall package; bad read/react and really only one pass rush move (straight upfield with speed).

    I’d be very very very shocked if the Bucs went with a position other than DE. Sitting at #20 there’s a chance they’ll have a shot at Kerrigan, Clayborn, Houston, and/or Aldon Smith. Bowers, Quinn, Watt, and Jordan are the only ones I’m pretty sure will be gone by the time we pick. (Lengthy logic below)

    With Scam being the one change from my previous mock, here’s who I think has a pretty solid shot of being gone before #20 (no order) – Gabbert, Newton, Ingram, Green, J Jones, Dareus, Fairley, Peterson, Amukamara, Bowers, Miller, Quinn, Watt, and Jordan. That leaves 5 other players to be taken before the Bucs pick. Possibilities – Ayers, Aldon Smith, Jimmy Smith, Nate Solder, Tyron Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Phil Taylor, Corey Liuget, Gabe Carimi, Anthony Castonzo, Derek Sherrod, and Justin Houston.

    From that group, I expect the Bucs to lock onto Aldon Smith, Kerrigan, Clayborn, and Houston. I doubt Smith gets past San Diego at #18, and unless they go with Jimmy Smith, I think Jacksonville takes either Kerrigan or Clayborn at #16. Barring New England grabbing one of them (Kerrigan has a ways to go in impressing as a 3-4 OLB), the Bucs could have their choice between Kerrigan/Clayborn and Houston. The first two would play LE, and Houston would play RE. Free agency and their remaining draft plans will determine who they end up going with.

    Regarding Kerrigan’s low ranking, it’s not so much that he’s low. It’s that there’s a ton of talent at the position this year. Quinn should probably be #1 on the list, I think Watt is going to go really early to a 3-4 team, and I love Jordan’s versatility. Clayborn had a disappointing senior year, but I think it’s worth pointing out that he dealt with an undisclosed leg injury for about half of it. Houston has huge potential at RE and could make the biggest, earliest impact of the possible Buccaneer options.

    I’m big on Kerrigan’s motor and ability to push the pocket, but he’s not as explosive as Houston and may not hold up as well at LE as Clayborn could. I’d be fine with Kerrigan being the pick and rank these three (Kerrigan-Houston-Clayborn) fairly closely. When it comes to my ranking them by perceived pro potential, I think the real Clayborn is closer to the ’09 (uninjured) version, and Houston’s potential as an explosive pass rushing RE is very intriguing. I think Kerrigan falls in line (long term) just behind them, but ending up with any of these guys is a pretty cool worst case scenario for Bucs fans.

  3. excellent breakdown, thank you. i didnt get it either, but unlike those very learned gentlemen, i actually WATCH THE TEAM PLAY EVERY WEEK. my best guess is dominick and morris believe they have a serviceable linebacking core and want to address things up front.

    but the real reason for this followup comment has to do with the qb ratings youve got up there. i was so intent on looking up ayers and d-lineman that i didnt bother to check much else. holy mackerel!! newton behind kaepernick?!?! this has to be a character thing not based on physicality, so i assume you believe newton will not be quick to make the transistion to pro-style offenses...but sixth??


  4. Depending on who they get at #20, I'd be fine with them going DE in R2 as well. If they got Aldon Smith or Justin Houston for RE, I could see them going with Allen Bailey in R2 to play LE. I just don't think they'd get Bailey if they took Kerrigan or Clayborn in R1.

    At LB, I think it shakes out like this - Geno returns at WLB. He’s not playing at a level where he’s above facing competition, but I don’t see the sense in focusing limited resources on competition at WLB. I’m guessing they let Ruud walk and see if they can get a MLB in the draft to compete with Tyrone McKenzie. I still want that guy to be Nate Irving, and it looks like R3 is as late as we could hope to get him. I’m just guessing here, but my thought is they let Quincy Black walk once the CBA / free agency stuff works itself out. They just tendered him, but there’s a chance that tender ends up meaning nothing and he’s a UFA. The Bucs would then go with Watson and Hayward at SLB. That said, this may be one way to go with the first three picks:

    R1 – Justin Houston (DE)
    R2 – Allen Bailey (DE)
    R3 – Nate Irving (MLB)

    Then use the last four picks on some combination of RB, TE, FS, CB, and OL.

  5. Regarding Newton, a lot of the low ranking has to do with me just not liking him (from what I can see/read) as a person. He was a punk at UF, and there’s no way in hell you can convince me he had no idea what his father was up to. Then, after having ALLLLLLLLL this time to prepare of interviews with NFL teams, you say that you see yourself as an icon and an entertainer?! Where’s his head? Incredible athleticism blah blah blah. I know all that. He simply hasn’t shown my #1 required QB skill – the ability to make quick decisions. I’d be scared as hell to spend a top 10 pick on someone that I just find incredibly sketchy. Don’t trust him one bit; get a real Mike Vick pre-dog stuff vibe from him. He definitely has the physical skills to emerge as the best player in this draft, but if he handles success ($) like I think he will, he’s going to be more Vince than Steve Young.

  6. I'm with you on Newton. Did you ever hear the Jim Mora "You think you know. But you DON'T know. You think you do...but you DON'T' rant? That's probably true about me and what I believe I saw in the Oregon game, but I THINK, I saw a kid that down after down looking at the sideline for a play and didn't check off once.

    I like my draft day quarterback prospects to spout banal cliche' after banal cliche'. I want to hear 'well, I plan on going in early, working hard to learn the playbook and gain the respect of my teammates'. I want a guy to show the kind of composure Aaron Rodgers did while waiting for hours with cameras on him to get drafted. Most of all, I want a guy able to recognize context and make a sound decision; referring to oneself in the third person at what amounts to ones job interview when questions about ones character are already present does NOT make me feel better about ones sense of the moment.

    Look, if this kid pulls a 38 on the Wunderlich, I might rethink things. But I'd put the over-under on half of that, and I'm not sure I would take the over.


  7. And he was clearly outclassed by Ponder today in something that actually matters - passing drills.

    I don't like rooting against people, but I make exceptions for sleaze.