1) Green Bay
Key Gets – Jeff Saturday
(C, Colts), Nick Perry (DE/OLB, USC), Jerel Worthy (DL, Michigan State
Key Gones – Chad Clifton
Key Games – wk1 v. 49ers,
wk2 v. Bears, wk4 v. Saints, wk6 @ Texans, wk7 @ Rams, wk11 @ Lions, wk12 @
Giants, wk13 v. Vikings, wk14 v. Lions, wk15 @ Bears, wk17 @ Vikings
2011 can be considered
nothing short of disappointing for the Packers.
The team that won the previous Super Bowl reeled off thirteen wins to
start the year before suffering their only regular season blemish. They took a 15-1 record into the playoffs
looking to repeat as champs. Instead
they picked a bad time to have their worst game of the year in a season ending
loss to the eventual champs.
Aaron Rodgers was the
league’s MVP last season. Those things
tend to happen when you put up video game-like numbers – 45 TDs to 6 INTs,
4,643 yards passing, and a 122.5 passer rating on the year. I could throw out numbers all day long, but
they still wouldn’t tell you how awesome he was last season. The guy is in more control of his offense
than any other QB in the league, and yes, that includes Tom Brady. He sees plays before they happen, and borrowing
the old marksman adage, he could knock the wings off a fly on a receiver’s
shoulder pads 40 yards downfield. There’s
no reason to believe Rodgers won’t be as good if not better this season. His weapons return intact. Greg Jennings gets the label of #1 receiver,
but he was outdone by Jordy Nelson last season.
Nelson exploded for 15 TDs and nearly 70 receptions in taking over the
#2 receiving role for Donald Driver.
While he may not repeat those stats again this year, it’s clear that
Rodgers has two legit #1 receivers. Look
for Randall Cobb to establish himself as the team’s third best receiver this
year. He brings an explosive element to
the offense and is more consistent that perennial disappointment James
Jones. Jermichael Finley has all the
talent in the world but needs to solve his drops problem. James Starks and Ryan Grant held down the
running game last year, but Grant is gone and there are rumblings that Starks
may not even make the final squad. Enter
Cedric Benson. The veteran back coming
off three consecutive 1,000 yard seasons enters a perfect situation. The starting job is his for the taking, and
he’s part of a potent offense anchored by arguably the league’s best offensive
line. The only question mark up front is
how third year tackle Marshall Newhouse will do in replacing veteran Chad
Clifton on Rodgers’ blind side. Bryan
Bulaga is entrenched on the right side, and they’re stacked in the middle. TJ Lang and Josh Sitton form the league’s
best pair of young guards, and veteran Jeff Saturday is a nice replacement for
Scott Wells. They’re solid.
If you’re going to pick
on the Packers, you’ll do it on this side of the ball. They allowed nearly 300 yards passing per
game which was worst in the league. They
weren’t much better against the run either, surrendering 4.7 yards per rush
attempt. The Packers simply couldn’t
make stops. If you want to pick one play
to summarize their season on defense, it was LeGarrette Blount running over
nearly every player on defense on his way to a future bloopers reel score. Last year I said they’d miss Cullen Jenkins
after he left for Philadelphia
I’m sure they’d like to
repeat last year’s 15-1 regular season record, but the goal is to win another
title. Benson could be the missing
ingredient on offense, but unless that defense steps its game up, they may not
make it to New Orleans
Team MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Breakout Player – Morgan
Burnett
Disappointment – Jermichael
Finley
2) Chicago
Key Gets – Brandon
Marshall (WR, Dolphins), Michael Bush (RB, Raiders), Jason Campbell (QB,
Raiders), Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State), Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
Key Gones – None
Key Games – wk2 @ Packers,
wk3 v. Rams, wk4 @ Cowboys, wk7 v. Lions, wk10 v. Texans, wk11 @ 49ers, wk12 v.
Vikings, wk14 @ Vikings, wk15 v. Packers, wk17 @ Lions
They probably won’t find
it interesting, but the Bears finished with an exact 8-8 record for the first
time since 1983.
Look for Jay Cutler to
have his best year yet in Chicago Denver Marshall Marshall Marshall
Julius Peppers continues
to be one of the league’s best pass rushers.
He added another 11 last year to what is looking like a Hall of Fame
resume. Not that I’m expecting it to
happen, but if for some reason Peppers’ play begins to slip at age 32, the fact
that his salary jumps from $8.9 million to $12.9 million next year might become
a factor. Rookie Shea McClellin will be
worked into a rotation with Israel Idonije on the other side, and I really like
his potential. I’m interested to see how
he develops across from Peppers. Henry
Melton had a huge year at defensive tackle, and they’ll be better off when
noseman Stephen Paea gets over his ankle injury. They have depth, but Melton and Paea will be
the keys inside. There’s concern about
Brian Urlacher heading into the season as he’s still dealing with a knee injury
that has kept him on the sidelines this preseason. Needless to say, they need him on the field to
have a chance in this division. Steady
Lance Briggs returns for what will likely be another All Pro season at WLB. I like their starting corners. Charles Tillman doesn’t get enough credit for
as good as he is, and Tim Jennings is solid on the other side. I do worry that their depth is a bit
untested. I’m not as enamored with their
safeties as Major Wright hasn’t started more than ten games in a season and
Chris Conte can’t get healthy this preseason.
They’re not the Packers,
but the Bears got a lot stronger offensively this offseason. If they can get and stay healthy on defense,
they might find a way back into the postseason, that improved running game
might become the key to a run at a title.
Team MVP – Jay Cutler
Breakout Player – Shea
McClellin
Disappointment – Brian
Urlacher’s health
3) Detroit
Key Gets – Riley Reiff
(T, Iowa ), Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma
Key Gones – Bobby
Carpenter (LB, Patriots), Eric Wright (CB, Bucs)
Key Games – wk1 v. Rams,
wk2 @ 49ers, wk4 v. Vikings, wk6 @ Eagles, wk7 @ Bears, wk10 @ Vikings, wk11 v.
Packers, wk12 v. Texans, wk14 @ Packers, wk16 v. Falcons, wk17 v. Bears
0-16 seems like decades
ago. The Lions made the playoffs for the
first time since ’99 and won ten games for the first time since ’95. They’re a young team that took what they hope
was the first step toward being a perennial contender.
Yes, yes he can stay
healthy for an entire 16 game season.
Matt Stafford made it through the year unscathed and finished behind
only Brees and Brady in yards passing and Brees and Rodgers in TDs. Talent was never the question; just his ability
to stay on the field. When he was on the
field, Stafford was heaving it up early and
often to the game’s best receiver.
Calvin Johnson is a freak among freaks and is coming off career highs in
receptions, yards, and TDs. I’m guessing
he has his first 100+ reception season in 2012 and will threaten if not reach
20 TDs. Stafford
has a few other weapons too. Titus Young
had his moments as a rookie, and I think he’s on the verge of busting out in a
big way. Nate Burleson is still in the
mix as is Brandon Pettigrew, the tight end who caught 83 passes last year. They’re not currently as deep at the RB
position. Jahvid Best just can’t get
over his concussions and is likely to start the season on the PUP list. Mikel Leshoure is coming back from an Achilles
injury and is suspended for the first two games. That means Kevin Smith sits back atop the
depth chart. As I write though, Smith
sustained an injury to his right ankle and may end up joining Best and Leshoure
on the sidelines. The offensive line is
an older unit that performs much much better in pass protection than run
blocking. Rookie Riley Reiff will start
right away at right tackle and may be the eventual replacement for Jeff Backus
on the left side.
Practices at Lions camp
have to be a little one-sided up front given the wealth of talent they’ve got
on their defensive line. Ndamukong Suh
and Corey Williams are monsters on the interior. His sophomore season may have not have lived
up to his rookie campaign, but I think a lot of that had to do with the Lions
not maximizing his talents. Look for
them to move him around on the line a lot more this year to take advantage of
mismatches. You know you’re good when
Nick Fairley and Sammie Lee Hill are relegated to backup snaps. Outside are the team’s leading pass rushers,
Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Avril
put together his second strong season in a row and was tagged as the Lions’
franchise player this offseason. The
veteran Vanden Bosch tallied 8 sacks of his own which was his highest total
since ’07. Middle linebacker Steven
Tulloch thrived in his first year with the Lions and was rewarded with a five
year contract this offseason. They could
stand to be a little more talented outside where DeAndre Levy and Justin Durant
hold the starting jobs. They were weak
in the secondary last year, and that was before Eric Wright left as a free
agent. Chris Houston and Alphonso Smith
might be the worst starting corner duo in the league, and I don’t think
drafting Dwight Bentley and Chris Greenwood was the answer to the problem. I think strong safety Amari Spievey is the
best player in the secondary. He took
hold of the job in his second season and was the most consistent defensive back
on the team.
They’ve got a high
powered passing game and a dominant defensive front. What’s not to love? I think the offensive line’s weaknesses will
show more than they like and that the secondary won’t be any better at shutting
down the pass than they were last year when they ranked 22nd in TDs
and yards allowed.
Team MVP – Calvin Johnson
Breakout Player – Titus
Young
Disappointment – Nick
Fairley
4) Minnesota
Key Gets – Matt Kalil (T,
USC), Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame), John Carlson (TE, Seahawks), Chris Carr
(CB, Ravens), Jerome Simpson (WR, Bengals), Josh Robinson (CB, UCF), Rhett
Ellison (TE, USC)
Key Gones – Cedric
Griffin (CB, Redskins), EJ Henderson (LB, FA), Steve Hutchinson (G, Titans),
Jim Kleinsasser (TE, retired), Ryan Longwell (K, FA)
Key Games – wk3 v. 49ers,
wk4 @ Lions, wk10 v. Lions, wk12 @ Bears, wk13 @ Packers, wk14 v. Bears, wk15 @
Rams, wk16 @ Texans, wk17 v. Packers
Surely the Vikings didn’t
head into the 2011 season thinking that they’d finish with the team’s worst
record since 1984, or a year before Adrian Peterson was born. As if the patheticness (yes patheticness) of
the Donovan McNabb era wasn’t enough of a bad thing to happen to the team last
year, they had to watch their franchise running back tear his ACL in the
fifteenth week of the season. And that
game happened to be one of the three they won on the year. Good times!
It shouldn’t surprise
anything that Peterson is already running at full speed and making cuts on a
knee that he severely injured just eight months ago. If anyone can make a near miraculous recovery
from a major injury it’s this guy. Since
he’s likely to go the entire preseason without taking any snaps, I’m sure he’ll
be limited early on. That’s ok because,
given his history, I have no reason to believe that he won’t be back better
than ever. The guy who needs him back
most is QB Christian Ponder. The former
Nole’s rookie year had more downs than ups.
Poor decision making, a concussion, and hip injury were the stories of
Ponder’s first season. Call it bias,
I’ll believe we’ll see substantial improvement in his performance this year,
specifically in the decision making department.
Again, he’ll need Peterson because his receiving unit is lacking in
quality and quantity. Not this guy
though. Percy Harvin is an irreplaceable
playmaker. It was good to see him play
all sixteen games last year and set a career high in touches with 138. They’ll need him to be big again, especially
since free agent signing and #2 receiver Jerome Simpson has been suspended
three games for being an idiot and having week fedex’d to his house. Second year tight end Kyle Rudolph has been
the buzz of camp this preseason and looks to have developed strong chemistry
with Ponder. His talent is well
documented, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if he has a big year. On the offensive line, their best player was
in college this time last year. Matt
Kalil will be the protector of Ponder’s blind side and moves Charlie Johnson
back to guard and away from a position he struggled at mightily. They extended center John Sullivan after he
showed signs of being a reliable long term piece of the unit. Guard Geoff Schwartz was a good pick up, but
he’s likely to miss the start of the season after having surgery for a sports
hernia.
Already established as
one of the game’s best, Jared Allen fell ½ sack short of tying Michael
Strahan’s single season record of 22.5 last year. He needed 3.5 in his final game against the
Bears to get that close, and he almost had Josh McCown another time for the
record. Brian Robison stepped up quite
well after Ray Edwards’ departure last offseason, tallying 8 sacks of his own. After a failed experiment at linebacker,
Everson Griffen goes back to focusing on defensive end and party planning. Kevin Williams is past his prime, but he
remains one of the game’s better defensive tackles at age 32. Keep an eye on the guy next to him, Letroy
Guion, the nose tackle who’s dealing with a knee issue this preseason. His backup Fred Evans is a noticeable
downgrade. Chad Greenway is the one
recognized stud in their group of linebackers, but I think Erin Henderson is
due more credit than he receives.
Greenway was wisely extended last September or else he very likely would
be playing somewhere else this year.
They’ll flank new MLB Jasper Brinkley who is limping into this season
with a groin injury. There will be big
changes in the secondary. Corners Cedric
Griffin and Ahser Allen and safeties Tyrell Johnson and Husain Abdullah are no
longer with the team. Chris Cook will
get a chance to take ownership of a starting cornerback job if he can stop
beating his girlfriend. Veteran Antoine
Winfield returns at the other starting spot.
The safeties that remained, Jamarca Sanford and Mistral Raymond, don’t
figure to do measurably better than the ones that left.
It would be a real shock
if the Vikings finished anywhere other than fourth in the division. The other teams are just too strong, and they
have too many questions. The biggest
question will be answered soon enough as All Day begins to take contact on that
surgically repaired knee.
Team MVP – Adrian
Peterson
Breakout Player – Kyle
Rudolph
Disappointment – Chris
Cook
Division MVP – Aaron
Rodgers
Division Breakout Player
– Titus Young
Division Disappointment –
Nick Fairley
No comments:
Post a Comment