Sunday, September 23, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 3

Week 2 Results (10-5) – Overall (18-12)
Nice bounce back last week getting to double digit victories; patting myself on the back for the Rams and Seahawks picks.  Of my top performer predictions, I hit with Victor Cruz (11-179-1) but missed badly with Adrian Peterson (16-60-0).  Let’s see if I can be more accurate this week. 

Rams @ Bears
Chicago needs a quick start to erase the memories of last week’s nightmare.  Do the Bears have Cutler’s back?  Both teams will likely be without their starting backs, but Chicago is in much better shape with Michael Bush. 

Bills @ Browns
I look for Trent Richardson to have a big game in this one as the Browns win for the first time in 2012.  CJ Spiller gets his, but Brandon Weeden, at home, makes more plays than Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Bucs @ Cowboys
I have a bad feeling the Bucs could get boat raced in this one.  I’m guessing Tony Romo learned a thing or two from watching that Bucs-Giants game. 

Lions @ Titans
They haven’t looked too pretty yet, but this is the easiest game so far for Detroit.  I don’t think this is the week Chris Johnson and his offensive line get it together.  It’s close, but I think Tennessee is still winless come Monday. 

Jaguars @ Colts
If the Colts can contain MJD as well as they did Adrian Peterson last week, this one shouldn’t be that close.  I’ve got Indy winning by 6. 

Jets @ Dolphins
Darrelle Revis is playing this week, so he should shut down Ryan Tannehill’s only downfield receiving option.  I expect the Jets to load the box and shut down Reggie Bush and force Tannehill to find his third and fourth reads.  The Jets offense does just enough to win an ugly game.

49ers @ Vikings
I don’t think the Niners are going undefeated, but I don’t think they lose their 0 this Sunday.  They can stop most team’s run games with their three down linemen and maybe a linebacker.  They do the job this week and force Christian Ponder to make plays. 

Chiefs @ Saints
There should be a ton of points scored in this one, and the Saints will easily be the league’s biggest disappointment (if they weren’t already) with another loss.  I think this one is closer than New Orleans wants.  They win on a late FG.

Bengals @ Redskins
This might be the toughest game for me to figure out this week.  On paper it looks like a matchup RGIII should exploit all day long.  Look what Brandon Weeden did to the Bengals secondary.  On the other hand, the NFL is a “gotcha” kind of league, and I’m going to roll with the road upset in this one. 

Eagles @ Cardinals
They’re 2-0 and off a huge road win at New England.  Big time letdown spot for the Cardinals right?  No way they score enough on this defense right?  Wrong.  Cardinals defense comes up big in this one. 

Falcons @ Chargers
In the second of this week’s matchups of unbeatens, the Falcons steal a win out west.  The Chargers get Ryan Mathews back, but I believe Atlanta’s passing attack will prove to be too much for San Diego

Texans @ Broncos
This one has game of the week potential.  I think the Texans will prove to be too much for the Broncos on both sides of the football but especially defensively.  JJ Watt gets 2 more sacks, and the Texans send a message with the way they’re able to run on the Broncos. 

Steelers @ Raiders
I think this turns out to be a really ugly contest.  Oakland isn’t going to do much of anything against Pittsburgh’s defense, but I’m guessing the Steelers to struggle a bit offensively as well in their trip to the west coast.  Heath Miller scores the only touchdown on the afternoon for either team.   

Patriots @ Ravens
The Patriots start missing Aaron Hernandez this week.  Baltimore gets revenge for last year’s championship game loss as their own version of Hernandez, Dennis Pitta, scores the winning touchdown.

Packers @ Seahawks
I definitely think the Seahawks have what it takes on defense to beat the Packers.  This might be the best secondary Green Bay faces all year, and yes, that includes the Niners.  Week 3 ends with a good one.  Aaron Rodgers to James Jones late for the game winner. 

Biggest winners (highest margin to lowest) –
1) Cowboys
2) 49ers
3) Bears
4) Texans
5) Colts

Closest calls (lowest margin to highest) –
1) Cardinals
2) Browns
3) Bengals
4) Falcons
5) Ravens

Top Performers –
QB – Matt Ryan @ Chargers
RB – Michael Bush v. Rams
WR – Calvin Johnson @ Titans
Defense – JJ Watt @ Broncos

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