Tuesday, April 9, 2013

What's Revis Worth?

The Bucs, not the Jets, should be dictating the terms of this deal, but if you’re to believe the rumored offer(s), the Bucs are falling all over themselves in an effort to land Darrelle Revis.  From my vantage point the Jets, not the Bucs, are the team that will lose (arguably) the game’s best corner for a supplemental pick next offseason if they can’t deal him sooner. 

One rumor has the Bucs willing to offer the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft, but the Jets want more.  I could be wrong, but I believe a lot of the specifics we’re hearing on this situation are originating from the NY area.  I have a hard time believing the Jets are playing stubborn in negotiations with the one team willing and able to deal for Revis if there’s a first round pick on the table. 

Another rumor, one mentioned on Pewter Report, has the Bucs not yet committed to giving up their first round pick in this year’s draft.  If true, good for them.  After all, the Jets said they wanted a comparable package to what Minnesota got for Harvin, and our #13 pick trumps the entire package Seattle surrendered (’13 – R1, R7 and ’14 – R3). 

If I can use the draft pick value chart as a guide, here’s what Minnesota received –
’13 R1 – (25th overall) 720 points
’13 R7 – 4 points, if that
’14 R3 – 145 points

That’s a total of 869 points.  Again, using that chart as a guide, the 13th overall pick is worth 1,150 points or 281 more points that the entire package Minnesota received from Seattle.  A more than fair offer would be a second round pick in both this and next year’s drafts.  The 43rd overall pick is worth 470 points.   

We don’t know what it’s going to cost in picks, but we do know that it’s going to cost the Bucs between $12-$15 million a year to (at least at the moment) please Revis.  That’s the cost of a top flight QB.  Both Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have base salaries just shy of $10 million for the ’13 season. 

Not many teams can afford to pay two premium QB salaries.  That might not be a problem for the Bucs if Freeman continues his unspectacular run.  On target to be a free agent after the season, Freeman needs to take a couple steps forward this year in order to earn a long term commitment from Schiano and company.  If things play out as most of us expect them to, the Bucs will need to start the QB search again next offseason.  With Revis’ $12-$15 mil on the books, the Bucs may be forced to focus on the draft to find Freeman’s replacement, and with a potential class whose potential headliners put this year’s to shame, holding onto that ’14 first round pick should be priority #1 for the Bucs. 

So I’m fine with trading for Revis, but these preposterous offers being floated around in the media cannot be the selling price.  Tell NY that the offer is two second round picks, take it or leave it.  The Jets may balk at first but when they realize they won’t get a better return for Revis, they’ll accept, and the Bucs will have their guy and their first round picks. 

If the Bucs can pull that off, I’d spend day one of the draft looking to move down with someone like Dallas at #18 (who may want to move up for Sheldon Richardson, Kenny Vaccaro, or Jonathan Cooper) in an effort to recoup a pick or two.  If San Francisco is looking to one up Seattle, the 31st and 34th overall picks are attractive talking points. 

The Bucs can still make out like bandits by acquiring Revis, but they must be careful not to be outbid by themselves. 

1 comment:

  1. As of 3:35 P.M. on Sunday, April 21, 2013, this trade is going to happen. Assuming published reports are correct and it involves a first round pick, this transaction will one day be considered an egregious error in Buc history rivaled only by the trade of a 1st rounder for Jack 'The Throwin' Samoan' Thompason.

    Derrell Revis went down in a heap with a non-contact injury; I repeat: A NON-CONTACT INJURY. This does not bode well for:

    a. A player at the cornerback position, a position that requires plant and drive to change directions rapidly

    b. A player that has a history of holding out for more money only seconds after signing sweetened renegotiated contract deals. This guy is going to put 15 mill/year in his pocket and half-step through the rest of his career.

    My goodness. The first thing that came to my mind when I heard it could really happen was a line from 'Snow Crash':

    "Oh, what a terrible outcome. What an embarrassment. What an incredible ****up, is what it is. It's too late to save your franchise, Jason The Iron Pumper, but it might not be too late to keep the sewer rats from eating your ****** for dinner.'

    TPE. Dammit.