The first pick is nearly four weeks away, but it’s finally
draft month. Tampa Bay
1) TB – Jameis Winston (QB, FSU)
It goes without saying that this pick will not change. I believe that Jameis is the best player in
this draft and will go down as the best QB in Tampa Bay
2) TEN – Leonard Williams (DL, USC)
I’m still not buying Mariota going #2. Tennessee
takes the guy widely considered to be the best overall player in the
draft. Lining Williams up opposite
Jurrell Casey beefs up an improving defense.
3) JAX – Vic Beasley (DE/OLB, Clemson)
I’ve had Dante Fowler here before, but I believe that
Beasley is probably the best fit for the Jags LEO position on defense. Jax will have their pick of edge rushers, so
we’ll eventually see how right I am.
4) OAK – Amari Cooper (WR, Alabama )
Like anyone else who talks draft, I’m having a hard time
putting any discernable difference between Cooper and Kevin White. I’ve had White here both times in the past,
but right now I’m leaning Cooper because he might be the safer option. Can I really count on Oakland making the safe choice?
5) ATL – Dante Fowler (DE/OLB, Florida )
I think this trade makes a ton of sense for both teams. Yes, Washington
could use a pass rusher like Fowler after losing Brian Orakpo this offseason,
but if they feel they can receive similar value three picks lower and gain one
or more picks in return, I think they pull the trigger. I like the potential of a trade between
WAS/ATL. Atlanta moves up to secure, arguably, the
draft’s best pass rusher rather than hoping the guy they want falls to #8.
6) PHI – Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon )
Here’s how this one goes down. There are several parts to it, but I believe
it has substantial legs.
First, I’m going to assume Philly and Cleveland have at least discussed the
potential of making a deal should the draft play out where Mariota is available
here. The Browns reportedly were in on
Sam Bradford, and here they get him.
Philly trades Bradford to
the Browns for pick #19. Philly then
flips that selection, the 20th overall pick, and Mychal Kendricks,
to the Jets for pick #6. If you look at
the trade value chart, #19 and #20 are more than enough for pick #6. I think Kendricks is the cherry on top and an
expendable player based on Philly’s offseason activity. Chip Kelly said that he wouldn’t mortgage his
future to move up for one player, but this scenario allows him to get his star
pupil and stay true to his word.
7) CHI – Kevin White (WR, West Virginia )
I’ve had them taking Cooper, and with him off the board,
they take White. Again, I don’t see a
ton of difference in projecting these two receivers.
8) WAS – Brandon Scherff (OL, Iowa )
The Redskins move down 3 spots and still get a guy they
would likely be comfortable taking at #5.
9) NYG – La’el Collins (OL, LSU)
I’ve got to think this pick goes to either the offensive or
defensive line. Scherff and Danny
Shelton have been my previous picks for the Giants. Collins is an immediate starter at RT and
gives Eli some much-needed protection.
10) STL – Andrus Peat (OL, Stanford)
The run on offensive linemen continues with the Rams. I think they’re in a tough spot here with
Scherff and Collins going with the two previous picks, but they’ve apparently
been in on Peat for a while. Maybe they
don’t see much separation here.
11) MIN – DeVante Parker (WR, Louisville )
Teddy Bridgewater gets his man. This pick makes too much sense. Parker is not a reach here at #11, fills a
need, pairs nicely with recently acquired Mike Wallace, and is reunited with
his collegiate QB.
12) CLE – Danny Shelton (DT, Washington)
If Shelton
falls this far, I’ve got to think the Browns jump on him. Great value and fit.
13) NOR – Randy Gregory (DE/OLB, Nebraska )
Bob Marley doesn’t fall far.
The Saints take a bit of a chance in attempt to address their need for a
pass rusher.
14) MIA – Trae Waynes (CB, Michigan State
Todd Gurley would be a nice surprise pick here, but with I
think Waynes
matches up well with Maimi’s need for a corner.
15) SF – Bud Dupree (DE/OLB, Kentucky )
Back before the regular season ended I had Dupree on my
radar as an option for the Bucs in R2.
He’ll be off the board well before R1 ends, and even this might be too
low for him. Aldon Smith is unreliable,
and there’s no pass rushing depth to speak of.
16) HOU – Malcom Brown (DL, Texas )
Big man doesn’t have to travel far and gives the Texans help
opposite JJ Watt.
17) SD – Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia)
Barring a trade, San Diego is
the second team in the draft (after Miami )
I could see taking Gurley. Taking the
talented back and focusing on the offensive line in subsequent rounds would be
a way to entice Philip Rivers to hang around.
18) KC – Eric Kendricks (LB, UCLA)
Same as last time. I
think this is either Kendricks or someone (Flowers) who can play RT.
19) NYJ – Shane Ray (DE/OLB, Missouri )
With the first pick acquired in the in the Mariota deal, the
Jets take a pass rusher. Ray “slides” in
this version. I think his less than
stellar workout numbers will cause him to be the guy from this closely grouped
group of pass rushers that could wait to hear his name called.
20) NYJ – Melvin Gordon (RB, Wisconsin )
The Jets need to add talent in the backfield, and Gordon
pairs nicely with Chris Ivory.
21) CIN – Ereck Flowers (OL, Miami )
Here’s another pick I think coes down to either the
offensive or defensive line. Flowers
could be the best available lineman at this point.
22) PIT – Landon Collins (S, Alabama )
Fit meets need meets value.
Collins could be the Andrew Luck to Troy Polamalu’s Peyton Manning.
23) DET – Eddie Goldman (DT, FSU)
Haloti Ngata was a nice response to losing Ndamukong Suh,
but there’s still work to do up front.
24) ARI – Jalen Collins (CB, LSU)
After losing Antonio Cromartie in free agency, there’s an
opening opposite Patrick Peterson.
Landing with a fellow former Tiger should be a good thing for the
talented and inexperienced Collins.
25) CAR – Cedric Ogbuehi (T, Texas A&M)
Ogbuehi often gets left out of the tackle conversation, in
large part because of his ACL injury.
Free agent signing Michael Oher might be the bridge to the future of
Ogbuehi.
26) BAL – Jaelen Strong (WR, Arizona State
Anyone paying attention knows that WR is a huge need for the
Ravens. I think Strong is their best
option here, but Breshad Perriman could get their attention as well.
27) DAL – Kevin Johnson (CB, Wake Forest
After adding Greg Hardy, finding a corner is Dallas ’ biggest
need. Johnson doesn’t get a lot of
attention but will be among the first off the board at his position.
28) DEN – Cameron Erving (OL, FSU)
He can play center or guard for the Broncos right now, both
positions of need.
29) IND – Arik Armstead
(DL, Oregon )
If the Colts want to make it past the Patriots, they must
get better players on the defensive side of the ball.
30) GB – Stephone Anthony (LB, Clemson)
I’m going corner or linebacker here. Anthony fills a need that seems to exist
every year for this team.
31) NOR – Marcus Peters (CB, Washington)
If they go in on Gregory at #13, then why not go with another
off-field question here? Peters could be
the best cornerback in this year’s draft class.
32) NE – Byron Jones (CB, Connecticut )
One of the stars of the offseason completes R1 and helps the
Patriots slow the bleeding from the losses of both Darrelle Revis and Brandon
Browner.
Round 2
33) TEN – TJ Clemmings (T, Pittsburgh )
The Titans could obviously go in several directions here,
including trading the first pick of day two, but I’ve got them addressing a
need at RT with a guy should pair nicely with LT Taylor Lewan for quite a
while.
34) TB
Nothing has changed.
Given the Bucs needs this pick still must be spent on either an
offensive or defensive lineman. Drafting
any other position would be a mistake.
There are no “must have” prospects still on the board; no one to entice
the Bucs to stray from their needs here.
My three targets with the 34th pick are (in
order) Jake Fisher, DJ Humphries, and Preston Smith. The tackles are both among the top of this
year’s class in their present ability to protect the passer. Here’s how they checked in at the Combine:
Fisher – 6’6, 306 with 33 ¾ arms
Humphries – 6’6, 307 with 33 5/8 arms
Both have the size and athleticism (footwork, range,
recovery) to project as left tackles with the ability to play on the right side
as well. I’m more comfortable with
Fisher because of how refined he is already, but Humphries has just as much, if
not more, potential. Adding either
Fisher or Humphries will not only improve protection for their rookie passer,
but the skill sets of these two players along with Demar Dotson’s gives them
some side flexibility/versatility with their tackles.
Smith remains my favorite pass rusher in this range. He’s got the size and ability to play all
three downs, something this team desperately needs and won’t likely find in
this year’s draft after this round. One
reason Smith isn’t rated higher is that he doesn’t play as fluid as his numbers
suggest. His versatility to line up in
multiple spots up front will also be attractive to Lovie Smith.
The pick – Jake Fisher (T, Oregon )
Round 3
So far the Bucs have taken a QB and someone to protect
him. I’d love to find a stud pass rusher
here, but there’s a reason those guys aren’t readily available with the 65th
pick in the draft. The Bucs need to
capitalize on talent here rather than blindly continuing down their checklist
of needs.
The three players I’m projecting here hold the talent worthy
of the selection and address immediate needs.
In order they are Rashad Greene, Tre McBride, and Tre’ Jackson .
Yes, two of them are Noles.
Possibly the biggest factor in Rashad’s favor is the fact
that he’s Jameis’ go-to guy. On a ’13 team
with Kelvin Benjamin, Kenny Shaw, and Nick O’Leary, Rashad led them all in
receptions (76) by 21. This year he
caught 99 passes, or 41 more than any other receiver on the roster. Getting your new #1 asset his favorite
collegiate target seems like a no-brainer.
Rashad obviously has a great relationship with Jameis, but he’s not
simply a product of his QB’s success. He
has excellent hands, runs a full route tree, and despite a lack of great size
or speed combined with the attention he gets from the defense, he’s routinely
able to get open and make plays. For the
Bucs, he fills the immediate need of a slot receiver while also bringing the
ability to play out wide when Vincent Jackson inevitably moves on.
I’ve been driving the McBride bandwagon for a while now, and
only the #1 pick’s #1 target could cause him not to be my #1 choice. Like Rashad, McBride has the skills to play
both inside and outside the formation.
His level of competition is in question, but McBride’s ability to make
contested catches is not. I’d be
thrilled with either receiver.
Want a shocker for the 3rd round? TJ Yeldon (RB, Alabama ).
If the Bucs were to take a RB early, it should be Yeldon. In my opinion, he represents this draft’s
best running game partner to Charles Sims.
Yeldon could handle the early down work, while Sims is allowed to play
the change of pace role for which he is better suited. I still expect Doug Martin to be moved at
some point, and while most Bucs fans would be upset with another early pick
being spent on a RB, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB, Oregon )
and Trey Flowers (DE, Arkansas )
are two other players I’d consider in R3.
The pick – Rashad Greene (WR, FSU)
Round 4
Here’s the haul through 3 rounds –
QB – Jameis Winston
OL – Jake Fisher
WR – Rashad Greene
The biggest remaining needs are starting talent on the
offensive and defensive lines and depth at linebacker and in the
secondary. Seeing as how the Bucs
current roster is lacking in overall talent, no position can be ignored. However, I think the lines will receive
higher consideration.
I’ve got a ton of candidates for this pick, spanning the
offensive line, pass rusher, cornerback, wide receiver, and running back. My favorites are Andy Gallik, John Miller,
and Lynden Trail.
I’ve already mentioned Gallik
as an option for the Bucs. He’s a really
strong anchor who won’t get pushed around, which of course is a desirable trait
for the guy playing in front of your passer.
Consistency is his game. He was
BC’s starting center for four years and the key to an offensive line that
produced 212.5 rushing ypg in ’13 and 251.8 in ’14. He makes all the line calls, and you don’t
see many missteps in his footwork in the run game. His knock is a lack of athleticism and size
(6’2, 306), which has him in the R4 range rather than being an earlier
pick.
Similar to Gallik, Miller does everything you want from an
interior lineman, but he isn’t as athletic or big as one might prefer. Miller has good size (6’2, 303), but he’d
ideally be another inch taller and 10 pounds heavier. Power and consistency are his game. He could step in and start right away at RG.
Trail was my previous R4 pick. The athletic pass rushing project is still a
candidate, but I believe Gallik and Miller represent safer gambles; something a
team that has swung and missed as often as the Bucs must consider.
The other players I would consider in this round –
Rob Havenstein (T, Wisconsin), Mike Davis (RB, S Carolina),
Donovan Smith (T, Penn State), Senquez Golson (CB, Mississippi), Justin Hardy
(WR, ECU), Jeremy Langford (RB, Michigan St), Mitch Morse (G, Missouri),
Za’Darius Smith (DE, Kentucky), and Cedric Reed (DE, Texas).
The Bucs currently own one 4th round pick, but if
they are able/decide to deal Martin and/or Mike Glennon, maybe one of those
other guys enters the equation.
The pick – Andy Gallik (OL, Boston College
Round 5
The Bucs own two selections in this round. In the past I’ve mocked Jeremiah Poutasi,
Jarvis Harrison, and Stefon Diggs with those picks. Given the way this draft has played out, with
the Bucs spending all four previous picks on the offensive side of the ball,
I’ve got a few new candidates for the fifth round, namely Ben Heeney and Zack
Wagenmann.
Heeney was a three year starting MLB for Kansas , team captain for the last two, and
led the NCAA in solo tackles in ’14. At
6’0, 230 he’s light for your prototypical MLB but is the epitome of the
sideline-to-sideline player that the Bucs are reportedly looking for at the
position. He demonstrates above average
straight line speed and change of direction.
Heeney is a form tackler and doesn’t make many missteps or misreads to
the ball. If you want to play a little
past player association, Heeney should strive for Shelton Quarles’ career. His speed, pursuit, and tackling ability will
make him an instant star on special teams, and I expect he would start out as
depth at SLB. Also, if you haven’t done
so already, do yourself a favor and check out the Captain Heeney website.
Wagenmann is a pass rusher who accumulated 37.5 career sacks
and 52 TFL in college. Why in the world
is he a 5th round prospect? For
starters, he played at Montana ,
an FCS university. He also measures in
at an undersized 6’3, 247. His weak
showing of strength at both the Combine and his pro day reveal his likely
future as a situational rusher. There’s
plenty of room for guys like that in today’s NFL. The guys at Pewter Report have been on
Wagenmann for a while now, so I did some digging myself. If the Bucs haven’t drafted a pass rusher at
this point, I believe Wagenmann represents excellent value as someone to get
after the passer and make contributions on special teams.
Poutasi would be on my radar if the Bucs don’t add a couple
of offensive linemen earlier, but I think Harrison
and Diggs have seen their stock settle a round lower. Other players I’d target in R5 – Kenny Bell
(WR, Nebraska), Jamison Crowder (WR, Duke), Karlos Williams (RB, FSU), Kevin
White (CB, TCU), Kurtis Drummond (S, Michigan State), and Adrian Amos (S, Penn
State).
The picks – Ben Heeney (LB, Kansas )
and Zack Wagenmann (DE, Montana )
Rounds 6 & 7
Through five rounds, here’s the haul –
QB – Jameis Winston
OL – Jake Fisher
WR – Rashad Greene
OL – Andy Gallik
LB – Ben Heeney
DE – Zack Wagenmann
After signing Sterling Moore to man the nickel corner spot,
I like the Bucs starters in three receiver sets. What I don’t like is the complete lack of
talented depth behind Alterraun Verner, Johnthan Banks, and Moore.
As I mentioned earlier, I still believe that Martin gets
moved. Fans may not like the return, but
that hasn’t stopped this regime from moving players they don’t believe fits
their plan.
I wouldn’t sneeze at another offensive or defensive lineman
in these rounds either.
In the end, I’m sticking with my previous picks. I still believe that Bobby McCain will be a
starting caliber corner and that John Crockett can be a three-down NFL rusher.
The picks – Bobby McCain (CB, Memphis )
and John Crockett (RB, North
Dakota State
I’ve got quite a few players I’d consider either in R7 or as
undrafted free agents. They are –
Cody Fajardo (QB, Nevada )
Hutson Mason (QB, Georgia)
Shane Carden (QB, ECU)
Laurence Gibson (OL, Virginia Tech)
Mark Glowinski (OL, West
Virginia )
Doniel Gambrell (OL, Notre Dame College
Adam Shead (OL, Oklahoma )
Max Garcia (OL, Florida )
DeAndrew White (WR, Alabama )
Mike Reilly (DE, North
Dakota State
Mark Nzeocha (LB, Wyoming )
Tye Smith (CB, Towson )
Bryce Callahan (CB, Rice)
Robertson Daniel (CB, BYU)
Donald Celiscar (DB, Western Michigan )
Cody Riggs (DB, Notre Dame)
Dean Marlowe (S, James Madison)
Total Haul
Jameis Winston (QB, FSU)
Jake Fisher (OL, Oregon )
Rashad Greene (WR, FSU)
Andy Gallik (OL, Boston
College
Ben Heeney (LB, Kansas )
Zack Wagenmann (DE, Montana )
Bobby McCain (CB, Memphis )
John Crockett (RB, North Dakota State
In this draft the Bucs take their 5th R1 QB in
team history, two long term starters on the OL, a starting slot receiver and
new #3 on the depth chart, a starting caliber nickel corner, two defensive
reserves with big special teams potential, and a rusher to add to the backfield
equation.
Go Bucs!
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