Sunday, October 14, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 6

Week 5 Results (11-2) – Overall (46-26)

Now that’s a good week!  Those five matchups I liked all turned out to be entertaining affairs too.  In top performers I was spot on with Drew Brees (29/45-370-4-1), but Adrian Peterson was contained (17-88-0).  I think I get a passing grade for Julio Jones too (10-94-1), but Navorro Bowman (4 tackles) was an F.  On to the next one…

My favorite matchups of the week:

Cowboys @ Ravens – Can Baltimore avoid the slip up and keep up with Houston?
Patriots @ Seahawks – Do the birds finally go down at home?
Giants @ 49ers – Do the Giants get revenge, or does history repeat itself?
Packers @ Texans – Are the Packers really headed for their fourth loss in six games?
Broncos @ Chargers – Are the Broncos losing to good teams, or are they just not that good?

Raiders @ Falcons
I can’t find an angle where Oakland pulls off the upset.  Their ground game would be the one hope, but Darren McFadden has broken 35 rushing yards just once this year.  Falcons roll.

Bengals @ Browns
I like Cleveland to win a game where both teams score in the 20s.  Joe Haden coming back to match up with AJ Green is the difference in this one. 

Rams @ Dolphins
These are two pretty even teams in my opinion, and I look for this to be a well played, low scoring contest with both defenses bettering the opposing offense.  I’ve got this coming down to a FG, and the Rams rookie kicker, is a perfect 13 for 13 on the year.  I’ll take the Rams to pull off the road upset. 

Colts @ Jets
The Jets blow, but I think the Colts are going to get the best of whatever NY has left this week as their upcoming schedule looks brutal.  I’m not sure how they’ll score, but I’ll take the bums to win. 

Lions @ Eagles
Detroit is 1-3 and coming off a bye and has to be feeling a sense of urgency with the way Chicago and Minnesota have started the season.  Even at home, I don’t think this Philly squad is one that scares a lot of teams.  Detroit gets the upset and win #2. 

Chiefs @ Buccaneers
Kansas City is going on the road without their starting QB.  Yes, Matt Cassel is horrible, but if he’s their starter, how bad is Brady Quinn?  The Bucs put 15 in the box to stop Jamaal Charles and get enough Connor Barth FGs to win for the first time since week one.

Cowboys @ Ravens
I could see this as a spot where Baltimore loses with Houston looming on deck, but I think they do enough to sweat out a victory.  Ray Rice scores twice. 

Bills @ Cardinals
Buffalo has been outscored 97-31 in their last two, yes two, games, so of course they’re the pick here.  I think this will be the ugliest game of the week. 

Patriots @ Seahawks
Seattle doesn’t lose at home right?  They beat Dallas, who I believe they’re better than, and were given the Packer win.  They’re not as fortunate this Sunday.  I think the Patriots will be as focused as possible in this one with a long stretch of likely wins following their trip west.   

Giants @ 49ers
Think San Fran has revenge on their minds?  Eli and company give the Niners a stiff test at home, but the Niners stake their claim as the conference’s top team.

Vikings @ Redskins
This should be a pretty even matchup.  The Vikings look fairly for real, and the Redskins have been able to get some things done themselves this year.  RGIII looks like he’ll suit up, but I’ll take the team that’s playing really fundamentally sound football.  Minnesota moves to 5-1.

Packers @ Texans
With Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are always in the game, but I think the Texans are going to grind it out throughout on the ground against an inferior defense. 

Broncos @ Chargers
The Broncos have played a much tougher schedule than the Chargers so far and show themselves to be the better team on MNF. 

Biggest winners (highest margin to lowest) –
1) Falcons
2) Broncos
3) 49ers
4) Lions
5) Browns

Closest calls (lowest margin to highest) –
1) Rams
2) Jets
3) Bills
4) Bucs
5) 49ers

Top Performers –
QB – Matt Ryan v. Raiders
RB – Ray Rice v. Cowboys
WR – Demaryius Thomas @ Chargers
Defense – Mario Williams @ Cardinals

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