Sunday, October 21, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 7

Week 6 Results (8-5) – Overall (54-31)

Got out to a nice start with the early games (6-1) but went 2-4 the rest of the way.  My Top Performers were duds.  Matt Ryan three 3 INTs, Ray Rice scored twice but tallied only 63 rushing yards, and Demaryius Thomas scored but caught only 2 passes.  Mario Williams was the only bright spot with 2 sacks.  On to the next one…

My favorite matchups of the week –
Redskins @ Giants – Washington win puts the Skins in first place
Ravens @ Texans – the only two AFC teams over .500 hook up
Jets @ Patriots – pissed off Patriots against nothing to lose Jets
Steelers @ Bengals – to stay in shouting distance of the Ravens
Lions @ Bears – Stafford and Johnson against the tough Bears defense

Titans @ Bills
I’m going with the better run game in this one.  Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller push the Bills back over .500.

Browns at Colts
Can Andrew Luck do enough damage against this defense to mitigate what Trent Richardson does against Indy’s weak run defense?  Reggie Wayne v. Joe Haden will be the key matchup in this one.  The Colts win by 1. 

Packers @ Rams
This game would be my sneaky upset pick of the week if I didn’t think the Packers figured it out a bit last week.  I see no letdown here.  It’s close, but Green Bay wins. 

Cardinals @ Vikings
The key to this one will be how often the Vikings pass rush gets to John Skelton.  I think they’ll limit the big plays and lean on Adrian Peterson against a subpar rush defense. 

Redskins @ Giants
The Giants play when they want to, and they better want to this Sunday.  This smells of a letdown after that huge win in San Francisco, but I think the Giants will pull this one out late after trailing at the half. 

Saints @ Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has beaten New Orleans at least once every year since ’07.  They keep that streak rolling here.  The Saints continue to slide. 

Cowboys @ Panthers
If I’m Jerry Jones I make Jason Garrett wear a Flavor Flav clock in this one.  They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but I think the Cowboys are better than the Panthers on both sides of the ball. 

Ravens @ Texans
Baltimore lost their defensive leader (Ray Lewis) and best cover man (Lardarius Webb) for the year last week.  Getting Terrell Suggs back will help, but this unit was leaky prior to those losses.  I look for Houston to bounce back and win a slugfest at home to establish themselves as the top team in the conference.

Jaguars @ Raiders
I’m going with a hunch and predicting a big road win for the Jaguars.  That’s hard to do with an inept QB, but I expect MJD to take care of business against the Raiders.

Jets @ Patriots
Don’t hit the panic button just yet.  Yes, the Patriots are 3-3, but their total margin of loss in those game is 4 points.  Look for them to get the lead early in this one putting a zero dimensional offense in an inescapable hole. 

Steelers @ Bengals
Cincinnati is coming off back-to-back losses against inferior teams, but I think they’ll get the job done at home on SNF.  Look for a lot of points in this one as the Bengals stay ahead of the Steelers.   

Lions @ Bears
Chicago keeps rolling in this one.  They get in Matt Stafford’s head early and keep Calvin Johnson fairly in check (only one TD).  Matt Forte controls the game on the ground as the first place Bears get the MNF win to move to 5-1. 

Biggest winners (highest margin to lowest) –
1) Patriots
2) Buccaneers
3) Bears
4) Cowboys
5) Jaguars

Closest calls (lowest margin to highest) –
1) Colts
2) Bills
3) Giants
4) Bengals
5) Vikings

Top Performers –
QB – Robert Griffin III @ Giants
RB – Maurice Jones Drew @ Raiders
WR – Reggie Wayne v. Browns
Defense – Jared Allen v. Cardinals


  1. This had to have been your best week in 2012, right? You might have had your best week ever if you hadn't led with your heart and taken the Bucs over NO.


  2. Hey TPE. How are things?

    Actually, my best week was week 5 where I went 11-2 (Packers lost at Indy, and Bengals lost to Miami at home).

    I really thought the Bucs were the play in that one. They're the better defensive team and as I mentioned have beaten the Saints at least once every year since '07. The obvious key play of the game was Jenkins chasing down VJax and the ensuing stuffage of Sucker Punch at the goal line. I stated before the season (I think on Bucschat) that I'd be surprised if he was still with the team next year. He's pretty useless. We need a power compliment to Martin, and Sucker Punch is anything but, despite his size. I'd take Jonathan Dwyer over him any day. Neither one is going to shake you out of your shoes, but Dwyer gets what's blocked. SP tiptoes into tackles.

    Overall I'm very pleased with the focus and effort of the Bucs week in week out. If I could change one thing it would be Schiano's "amateurish" tactics like attacking kneeldowns or shifting while barking out cadences on field goals. I like seeing Freeman play with confidence and hope that continues as the season progresses. Minnesota and St. Louis are probably the toughest defenses left on their schedule, so we should see plenty of opportunities for guys to shine. For me it's still not about wins this year; just show development.

  3. I'm also satisfied with the effort and intensity the Bucs are showing, especially since they are probably realistic enough to understand they're not really a playoff contending team. I just really, really wish the head coach would not insist on making those embarrassing and unprofessional moves at the end of games.

    Good to see you like how Freeman is playing, because what you see is what you're gonna get until (perhaps) the team decides his ceiling will never be high enough to make them perennial contenders. My opinion is it is not; he can go three or four offensive series where he looks like Steve Sax trying to make a throw to first base, a reference that might be referring events well before your time. Anyway, throwing the ball where only Reed Richards could catch it is not a recipe for long term success in the National Football League.

    On a completely different subject,if I were the Jets, I would be on the phone to try to deal a 3rd for Jeremy Trueblood. Now, if I were the Bucs, I would turn the deal down, but JT might be one of the few right tackles that has started for a substantial amount of time in the NFL, and there are probably 10 guys out there much worse than him.

  4. A Mister Fantastic reference!

    Freeman is going through his best stretch as a pro right now, and while I don’t think he’s going to keep it up the rest of the way, this success has to be great for his confidence. He has the most weapons he’s enjoyed during his time as a pro, and there’s real offensive balance. I definitely get the Sax reference; guy made Chuck Knoblauch look like the Rifleman.

    Having lost his starting job to Demar Dotson, Trueblood looks to be on his last legs as a Buccaneer. He’s a free agent after the season, so the Bucs might be wise to take what they can get for a guy who looks to be headed for the exit.

    I’m glad the Bucs don’t play Notre Dame this year. As an opponent of the Irish, you never know when a crucial, phantom penalty will be called against you.