Sunday, November 11, 2012

NFL Picks - Week 10



Week 9 Results (11-2) – Overall (82-41)

An 11-2 week gave me a season win total that doubles my losses.  If I had stuck with my gut and picked Pittsburgh over New York, I could have had it down to a one defeat week.  Oh well, on to the next one…

Giants @ Bengals
Eli’s struggling, and AJ Green is calling out the Giants’ defense.  I think the Giants will overwhelm the Bengals and get back on track.  Green doesn’t call out any of his remaining opponents.

Titans @ Dolphins
Look for Ryan Tannehill to have a huge game against one of the league’s worst defenses.  The Titans won’t get much going on the ground against the Dolphins. 

Lions @ Vikings
No Harvin = not a tough choice for me.  Adrian Peterson is a beast, but without the versatile Harvin, look for Christian Ponder to have a long afternoon.  Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson FINALLY hook up for a score.

Bills @ Patriots
Aaron Hernandez won’t be playing, but it won’t matter.  The Patriots are coming off their bye, and the Bills wish they could have another week off.  New England rolls.

Falcons @ Saints
The perfect season ends in New Orleans.  Maybe I’m looking too much into a strong win against an awful Eagles team, but the Saints look like they make be gaining some momentum here.  Drew Brees throws 4 TDs. 

Chargers @ Bucs
If you like passing offenses, tune into this one.  The Bucs defense ranks #1 against the run, while the Chargers are no slouch at #4.  Josh Freeman remains on fire and leads the Bucs to their fourth win in five games.  Vincent Jackson burns his old team for 100 yards receiving. 

Broncos @ Panthers
Denver could be in a letdown situation going on the road for the second straight week with a division home game against the Chargers looming next week, but I think Peyton Manning keeps his offense focused.  The Panthers’ inability to put together two straight wins continues into week 11. 

Raiders @ Ravens
No Darren McFadden or Mike Goodson in this one.  That’s not a good thing for a Raiders offense facing a reeling Ravens defense.  The key to this one is easy – Ray Rice early and often.  It’s not pretty, but the Ravens remain on top of the AFC North.  

Jets @ Seahawks
Something smells a little funny in this one.  Will the bye week help the Jets get on track?  I think their only chance is getting to Russell Wilson and forcing the rookie into turnovers.  I trust the Seattle defense, but this will likely be closer than the experts think.  

Cowboys @ Eagles
This is a must-win for both teams.  Dallas is annually overrated but has played well enough to win each of their last four games.  Problem is they continually come up short.  Philly is 7 points from being 0-8 instead of 3-5.  Their offensive line is trash, and Michael Vick is failing miserably.  The boos rain down loudly on the home team.

Rams @ 49ers
I think this will be the ugliest game of the year.  Alex Smith hands off all day, and the Niners win this one by 17.

Texans @ Bears
I can’t wait for this one.  I love JJ Watt, but I need to see the Texans win a game like this before I get completely on their bandwagon.  Chicago has won these types of games before, and I think they do it again on SNF.

Chiefs @ Steelers
I’m in bed by 10:30.  So is Romeo Crennel.  


7 comments:

  1. I barely finished my damn comments to this entry and you already have new content! What the heck man, are you channeling the spirit of Steven J. Gould? I swear that guy could write 4 books, 29 columns and 31 essays a year.

    "Giants @ Bengals Eli’s struggling, and AJ Green is calling out the Giants’ defense. I think the Giants will overwhelm the Bengals and get back on track. Green doesn’t call out any of his remaining opponents."

    I figured the Giants might have some trouble with the Bengals given that the Bengals best players are in the middle of the defensive line and at corner. Teams that can get pressure up the middle are giving the Giants fits. Age on the o-line is creeping up on them…which is not to say they cannot win it all again, since they do have the best coach in professional football and an multiple SB winning quarterback, both of whose titles are untainted by purloined videotape of the opponents practices.

    "Titans @ Dolphin Look for Ryan Tannehill to have a huge game against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Titans won’t get much going on the ground against the Dolphins."

    I wonder if the Dolphins, after last week’s loss, thought ‘ahh hell, we can’t beat the Colts, who are we kidding?’ and suffered a serious crisis of confidence. Either that or the Titans have gotten much better in the last six weeks, which may well be the case.

    "Lions @ Vikings No Harvin = not a tough choice for me. Adrian Peterson is a beast, but without the versatile Harvin, look for Christian Ponder to have a long afternoon. Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson FINALLY hook up for a score."

    I heard the game analysts say the Vikings coaches had asked Ponder to make more of an effort to stay in the pocket and go through his reads. He certainly looked much sharper, and that was without Harvin. I think I might have brought this up before, but I wonder if they have changed his throwing motion some because his release is much quicker and the ball definitely has more zip on the intermediate throws than when he was here.

    "Bills @ Patriots Aaron Hernandez won’t be playing, but it won’t matter. The Patriots are coming off their bye, and the Bills wish they could have another week off. New England rolls."

    I would like to see the data on New England’s third town conversion rate in the second half vs. the first half when the game is still a contest. I think there might have been a kernel of truth in what a Seattle defender said about them a couple of weeks ago; they’re mostly a gimmicky offense that can be beat by decent personnel carrying out their assignments.

    "Falcons @ Saints The perfect season ends in New Orleans. Maybe I’m looking too much into a strong win against an awful Eagles team, but the Saints look like they make be gaining some momentum here. Drew Brees throws 4 TDs."

    Well spotted. I’d bet there isn’t a single coaching staff in the NFC that wouldn’t like to see the Saints mathematically eliminated as quickly as possible, and that includes what are in my opinion the paper tiger…velour bird…origami parrot…Atlanta Falcons.

    "Chargers @ Bucs If you like passing offenses, tune into this one. The Bucs defense ranks #1 against the run, while the Chargers are no slouch at #4. Josh Freeman remains on fire and leads the Bucs to their fourth win in five games. Vincent Jackson burns his old team for 100 yards receiving."

    Who the hell is Leonard Johnson?

    "Broncos @ Panthers Denver could be in a letdown situation going on the road for the second straight week with a division home game against the Chargers looming next week, but I think Peyton Manning keeps his offense focused. The Panthers’ inability to put together two straight wins continues into week 11."

    I kept track of this game. I think there was a letdown by Denver for about the first ten minutes, and the Panthers capitalized on it. Then Peyton Manning decided that was enough of that, and it was 27-7 in no time at all.

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  2. I have a rough and ready test I use for answering the ‘Can you win a Super Bowl with that guy as your quarterback?’ If the answer to the question ‘Can he win two shootouts a year?’ is ‘I don’t have much confidence that he can’, enjoy your wait until you find someone that can. Enjoy your wait, Carolina.

    "Raiders @ Ravens No Darren McFadden or Mike Goodson in this one. That’s not a good thing for a Raiders offense facing a reeling Ravens defense. The key to this one is easy – Ray Rice early and often. It’s not pretty, but the Ravens remain on top of the AFC North."

    If, in fact, Harbaugh v1.0 ran that fake field goal as a tweek directed towards that Oakland cornerback that flaunted breaking up a pass to AQ while his team was down 24, then I have a new favorite moment of NFL season 2012. Better coaches than Dennis Allen have lost their jobs over games like the one the Radiers lost to a recently lackluster Ravens team.

    "Jets @ Seahawks Something smells a little funny in this one. Will the bye week help the Jets get on track? I think their only chance is getting to Russell Wilson and forcing the rookie into turnovers. I trust the Seattle defense, but this will likely be closer than the experts think."

    It might have been closer if anyone other than Mark Sanchez had been the Jets quarterback (besides the Jets backup of course). I find it odd that the Standard Operating Procedure for young qbs is suspended for Sanchez. When Cam or any other first year player has a sensational rookie year, we all say ‘Let’s wait for the league to get a few reels of film on the kid and see where he is in a year’…unless it’s Mark Sanchez! The argument with him is ‘well, he took them to the playoffs in his first year’. BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LEAGUE HAD A CRITICAL MASS OF TAPE AND THE JETS HAD THE BEST DEFENSE IN FOOTBALL! Good lord.

    "Cowboys @ EaglesThis is a must-win for both teams. Dallas is annually overrated but has played well enough to win each of their last four games. Problem is they continually come up short. Philly is 7 points from being 0-8 instead of 3-5. Their offensive line is trash, and Michael Vick is failing miserably. The boos rain down loudly on the home team."

    Oddly, a rookie seeing his first regular season game wasn’t sacked or hit as often as Michael Vick (who has herpes). Could it be that if you have anything better than the football equivalent IQ of an imbecile, it might be possible to slide protection and sense from where a blitz is coming?

    I can see the Cowboys putting together a run that would get their fans excited just enough to make the horrific boneheaded interception by Tony Romo in the last game of the season all the more gut wrenching.

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  3. "Rams @ 49ers I think this will be the ugliest game of the year. Alex Smith hands off all day, and the Niners win this one by 17."

    You know a game is poorly executed by the team and coaches when a guy like me, who has no stake in its outcome, is pissed off at the bumbling incompetence of the team that should have won the game.

    Unlike what I would bet a lot of 49er fans are thinking, I came to the opinion that that team had better hope Alex Smith stays healthy. Colin Kaeperknik is light years away from being a capable starter.

    "Texans @ Bears I can’t wait for this one. I love JJ Watt, but I need to see the Texans win a game like this before I get completely on their bandwagon. Chicago has won these types of games before, and I think they do it again on SNF."

    Jason Campbell looked very ordinary. Well, less than very ordinary. However, I would think that kind of performance could get the Jets very excited about the prospect of making an upgrade via a trade.

    English author Iain M. Banks writes a series of science fiction novels based on the ‘Culture’ universe, wherein humanity has harnessed extraordinarily sophisticated technology to spread throughout the galaxy, oftentimes being a major (and meddlesome) player in alien conflicts. A key element of the Culture novels is the existence of enormous vessels and ships controlled by Artificial Intelligence entities, who on occasion give themselves whimsical or cryptic names. Examples are the ‘Does That Look Clean to You?’ and ‘Is That a Neurodisrupter in Your Pocket, Or Are You Just Happy to See Me?’. In honor of his latest release, ‘The Hydrogen Sonata’, I have decided to dub myself with a Culture AI name ‘Babbling Like a Postmodern French Philosopher’.

    aka,

    TPE

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  4. “I barely finished my damn comments to this entry and you already have new content! What the heck man, are you channeling the spirit of Steven J. Gould? I swear that guy could write 4 books, 29 columns and 31 essays a year.”

    What can I say? The NFL is my muse. I never have time anymore to do a weekly ‘musings’ piece, but I just started writing some things down when I was watching that abomination of a MNF game, and before I knew it I had a decent amount of stuff written down.


    “I figured the Giants might have some trouble with the Bengals given that the Bengals best players are in the middle of the defensive line and at corner. Teams that can get pressure up the middle are giving the Giants fits. Age on the o-line is creeping up on them…which is not to say they cannot win it all again, since they do have the best coach in professional football and an multiple SB winning quarterback, both of whose titles are untainted by purloined videotape of the opponents practices.”

    I should have known better with the Giants. They’re an extremely tired football team at this point and were facing a desperate Bengals team that was trying to end a four game losing streak. In addition to what you mentioned Eli is making bad decisions, and Bradshaw can’t hold onto the football. I don’t know if it’s the injury, but Nicks isn’t making any plays after the catch. Can they turn it on again late in the season? I wouldn’t rely on that given the depth of the NFC this year.


    “I wonder if the Dolphins, after last week’s loss, thought ‘ahh hell, we can’t beat the Colts, who are we kidding?’ and suffered a serious crisis of confidence. Either that or the Titans have gotten much better in the last six weeks, which may well be the case.”

    I think that just happened to be one of those ‘any given Sunday’ situations. The Dolphins might not be ready for prime time, but they’ve got things pointed in the right direction. If I’m buying stock in NFL teams, I’d invest in the Dolphins before the Titans.


    “I heard the game analysts say the Vikings coaches had asked Ponder to make more of an effort to stay in the pocket and go through his reads. He certainly looked much sharper, and that was without Harvin. I think I might have brought this up before, but I wonder if they have changed his throwing motion some because his release is much quicker and the ball definitely has more zip on the intermediate throws than when he was here.”

    Ponder worked on sharpening his delivery last year a rookie, and you’re right, those intermediate passes are getting there quicker. What he’s still struggling with is the decision making. Too many “what the hell did he see there?” passes. There was one earlier this year against the Cardinals just before the half. On third down deep in his own territory he threw the ball right to the defender rather than putting it 20 rows deep in the stands. Jay Feely missed the ensuing FG and the Vikings still won, but still. He’s got to do a better job of seeing the entire field and reacting to what the defense gives him.

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  5. “I would like to see the data on New England’s third town conversion rate in the second half vs. the first half when the game is still a contest. I think there might have been a kernel of truth in what a Seattle defender said about them a couple of weeks ago; they’re mostly a gimmicky offense that can be beat by decent personnel carrying out their assignments.”

    There’s definitely something not right about that team. Yes, they’re 6-3 and 7 points from being undefeated, but they don’t seem to have that edge on offense. The defense gets thrown on more than a Kardashian which makes Brady have to be fairly flawless against a team with an offensive pulse. You can’t put it on one player, but not having Aaron Hernandez for basically six of your nine games has had a pretty big impact. They’re an extremely different offense when they can move him around the offense, force the defense into mismatches, and pick them apart on their way to six points.


    “Well spotted. I’d bet there isn’t a single coaching staff in the NFC that wouldn’t like to see the Saints mathematically eliminated as quickly as possible, and that includes what are in my opinion the paper tiger…velour bird…origami parrot…Atlanta Falcons.”

    They’ll probably lay an egg in Oakland this Sunday after getting some attention, but the way the offense is playing, I wouldn’t count on them reaching nine wins (5-2 the rest of the way). If Philly could put one foot in front of the other that MNF game would have been more of a contest, and Atlanta was within a couple of well defended passes of staying unbeaten. The Saints are a lot of fun to watch might actually play some meaningful football if their defense can start grasping Spags’ scheme.


    “Who the hell is Leonard Johnson?”

    Ha ha! I was really pleased to see him as one of their free agent signings after the draft. Johnson is a guy who got punished for measureables but plays smart, physical football and puts himself in position to make plays. Very nice find.


    “I kept track of this game. I think there was a letdown by Denver for about the first ten minutes, and the Panthers capitalized on it. Then Peyton Manning decided that was enough of that, and it was 27-7 in no time at all.”

    If I’m going to fault Peyton and the Broncos for anything, it’s the slow starts. They’re not going to be able to overcome 24-0 leads all the time like they did against the Chargers. He nearly gave it away against the Bengals but was able to respond in the fourth quarter. I really like this team (especially Demaryius Thomas), but they’re far from flawless.

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  6. “I have a rough and ready test I use for answering the ‘Can you win a Super Bowl with that guy as your quarterback?’ If the answer to the question ‘Can he win two shootouts a year?’ is ‘I don’t have much confidence that he can’, enjoy your wait until you find someone that can. Enjoy your wait, Carolina.”

    Sound rationale. The job of an NFL QB isn’t to throw for a lot of yards, move the offense, and score touchdowns. It’s to win football games and to win championships. Who would I count on? In order – Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Ben, Eli, and Brady. That’s it. Scam isn’t anywhere near this class, and judging by his lack of focus and leadership this season, he’s never going to be that guy. I don’t want to hear that he’s just not used to losing. I need my QB to be able to rise above adversity, not use it as an excuse for failure.


    “If, in fact, Harbaugh v1.0 ran that fake field goal as a tweek directed towards that Oakland cornerback that flaunted breaking up a pass to AQ while his team was down 24, then I have a new favorite moment of NFL season 2012. Better coaches than Dennis Allen have lost their jobs over games like the one the Radiers lost to a recently lackluster Ravens team.”

    You’re exactly right. You want scoreboard punk?! Enjoy that reaming in your team meetings.


    “It might have been closer if anyone other than Mark Sanchez had been the Jets quarterback (besides the Jets backup of course). I find it odd that the Standard Operating Procedure for young qbs is suspended for Sanchez. When Cam or any other first year player has a sensational rookie year, we all say ‘Let’s wait for the league to get a few reels of film on the kid and see where he is in a year’…unless it’s Mark Sanchez! The argument with him is ‘well, he took them to the playoffs in his first year’. BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LEAGUE HAD A CRITICAL MASS OF TAPE AND THE JETS HAD THE BEST DEFENSE IN FOOTBALL! Good lord.”

    I think we’re nearing the end with Sanchez. For be it for me to defend the guy, but I’d rather have FSU’s receivers than New York’s. What I love the most out of the shitfest that is the Jets is that despite how awful Sanchez looks out there, baby jesus still can’t take the job. I also love that when he finally gets out there, his offensive linemen false start, changing the down and distance and putting him back on the sidelines. I’m not one for anonymously calling out teammates in the media, but some of that stuff Jets’ players was saying was damn funny. Can’t say I don’t like hearing them call it as they see it. I’d just like to see a name attached to something if you’re going to slam someone on your own team.


    “Oddly, a rookie seeing his first regular season game wasn’t sacked or hit as often as Michael Vick (who has herpes). Could it be that if you have anything better than the football equivalent IQ of an imbecile, it might be possible to slide protection and sense from where a blitz is coming?”

    Vick is pathetic. He’s never been a great passer or decision maker, but now he can’t run as well. There goes his game. Who wants a guy who can’t read defenses and NEVER EVER adjusts a play at the line? Seriously, mix in an audible once in a while.

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  7. “I can see the Cowboys putting together a run that would get their fans excited just enough to make the horrific boneheaded interception by Tony Romo in the last game of the season all the more gut wrenching.”

    It’s what they do. They lose when you think they should win. Then they win after you’ve put them in your rear view. And just when you’re ready to believe again, they go back to being the Cowboys. They have a much easier road the rest of the way than the Saints, but I’d hesitate to say they’ll finish with a better record. Take this week for example. They won a big division road game last week in Philly, so do they turn around and lay an egg at home against the two-win Browns? If Dallas is for real, they win this one 27-13. If they’re the Cowboys, they lose 17-10.


    “You know a game is poorly executed by the team and coaches when a guy like me, who has no stake in its outcome, is pissed off at the bumbling incompetence of the team that should have won the game.”

    You were not alone my friend. Jim Harbaugh being outcoached is a rarity, but it was on full display Sunday. Maybe we’re giving the Niners too much credit. If they get behind early, they’re done. Let’s see how they do against the Saints in the dome next week.


    “Unlike what I would bet a lot of 49er fans are thinking, I came to the opinion that that team had better hope Alex Smith stays healthy. Colin Kaeperknik is light years away from being a capable starter.”

    Kaepernick definitely has a ways to go as a passer, but I find it funny that a team can actually open up the offense more when their backup QB is in the game. What other team can you say that about? Sanchez sucks, but his backup is like original Tecmo Bowl. He only knows four offensive plays.


    “Jason Campbell looked very ordinary. Well, less than very ordinary. However, I would think that kind of performance could get the Jets very excited about the prospect of making an upgrade via a trade.”

    I almost want to see Greg McElroy get into a game to see if the sacred one implodes before our very eyes.


    “English author Iain M. Banks writes a series of science fiction novels based on the ‘Culture’ universe, wherein humanity has harnessed extraordinarily sophisticated technology to spread throughout the galaxy, oftentimes being a major (and meddlesome) player in alien conflicts. A key element of the Culture novels is the existence of enormous vessels and ships controlled by Artificial Intelligence entities, who on occasion give themselves whimsical or cryptic names. Examples are the ‘Does That Look Clean to You?’ and ‘Is That a Neurodisrupter in Your Pocket, Or Are You Just Happy to See Me?’. In honor of his latest release, ‘The Hydrogen Sonata’, I have decided to dub myself with a Culture AI name ‘Babbling Like a Postmodern French Philosopher’.”

    Bravo! There you go closing things out with style once again. Your unique literary insights are always welcome around here TPE!

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