Sunday, October 27, 2013

NFL Picks - Week 8

Season Record – 62-42

Struggling after a very disappointing 7-7 last week.  I’m having a tough time getting a consistent read on the ups and downs of a lot of teams this year.  One team I’m not having any trouble figuring out is the Bucs.  With Thursday night’s loss, they’re 0-7 with a loss at Seattle on the agenda next week.  Whether or not the players have quit on Schiano (I believe they have) this is an unrecoverable situation in my opinion, and it’s time for the Glazers to start over.  This includes Mark Dominik, the GM whose tenure may not be as repugnant as Schiano’s but features plenty of failures of its own.  Mike Glennon isn’t the answer to any question I’m interested in asking, so QB should be at the top of the team’s on-field needs.  That’s replacements at the three most important positions – Quarterback, Head Coach, and General Manager.  More on that later.  On with the picks.

Can I get a free W for the Thursday game even though I didn’t make an official pick?  You really think I would have taken Tampa Bay?

Cowboys @ Lions
I actually think this is a good spot for the Lions.  Will Dallas win three in a row?  DeMarco Murray is doubtful.  A rookie from Saginaw Valley State will start at strong safety.  I’m looking forward to the Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant back and forth, and I think the Lions win by at least 7. 

Browns @ Chiefs
Jason Campbell gets the start for Cleveland against the league’s top ranked defense thus far.  Kansas City is going to lose eventually, but I just can’t see it happening at home this week against a reeling Browns team and with the way Alex Smith has taken care of the football.  Chiefs by 17.  Hali and Houston combine for 4 sacks. 

Dolphins @ Patriots
Is there a chance the Patriots slip up at home against a reeling Dolphins team and let the Jets sniff the division lead?  I can’t see it.  Even without Aqib Talib to shadow Mike Wallace, I think the Patriots can effectively limit Ryan Tannehill.  Danny Amendola looks good to go this week, so Tom Brady will have he and Gronk on the field together for the first time.  It’s another ugly one, but the home team wins. 

Bills @ Saints
Sean Payton and the Saints have had two weeks to focus on their faults after that heartbreaking last second loss at the Patriots.  In their way stand the somewhat surprising Bills.  Yes they’re 3-4, but they beat Miami on the road last week and nearly beat the Bengals the weak before with Thad Lewis at QB, banged up running backs, and a depleted defense.  I won’t be surprised if this is close for a while, but I expect the Saints to take control in the second half.

Giants @ Eagles
This is what I was talking about when I said I had no clue about some teams.  I can’t figure out the Eagles.  I liked them last week against Dallas, and while their defense showed up for the first time, their offense laid an egg.  They already beat the Giants on the road in week five.  With Dog Killer back under center, I give the edge to the home team, but then again, what do I know?

49ers v. Jaguars (in London)
I don’t care where they play this one.  The Jags don’t win it.  San Fran may sleep walk through this one making it a lot closer on the scoreboard than it should be, but Jacksonville will still have a 0 in the W column tomorrow morning. 

Jets @ Bengals
Here’s one I’m really interested in watching today.  The Jets look like they may give the Patriots a run the rest of the way, and a win on the road against a Bengals team who plays well at home would be a big statement.  I think their defense keeps them in this one throughout, but Cincinnati gets it done again at home.  Bengals by 4; giving them a very quiet 6-2 record. 

Steelers @ Raiders
Look out, Pittsburgh has won two in a row.  They’re back!  Not so fast.  Wins against the Jets and struggling defending champs don’t tell me a ton.  I’m again going with the home team (this week’s theme apparently).  The Raiders are coming off their bye.  They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Steelers, and Darren McFadden is reportedly looking sharp.  Raiders by 10. 

Redskins @ Broncos
Is it just me, or did it look like something was wrong with Peyton Manning in last week’s homecoming loss?  His passes looked very “uncrisp” throughout the game, especially in the second half.  Sure it was only Denver’s first loss of the year, but they haven’t exactly looked like Super Bowl material in their last three games - @ Dallas, v. Jacksonville, and @ Indy.  The Redskins had their best offensive output of the season last week against the Bears, putting up 45 points in earning their second win.  They’ll need at least that many this week.  144.  That’s the number of points the Broncos have scored in their three games against the other NFC East teams.  Sticking with the averages, Denver scores 48 today.

Falcons @ Cardinals
This Falcons team sucks, but the Cardinals have that trend of teams facing Seattle losing the following week going against them as well.  They’ve had a little longer to heal up for this one, and will, in my opinion, be able to shut down a Falcons offense missing both Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Andre Ellilngton has a big day for the Cardinals. 

Packers @ Vikings
Here’s the first game where I’m not picking the home team, and they won’t kick off until Sunday night.  This could be a sneaky spot for the Packers to slip up, but I expect them to be focused to stay atop the division, especially if Detroit wins earlier in the day as I expect them to do.  I don’t see Aaron Rodgers having a down game when he has a chance to beat up on the vulnerable Vikings and give his team a fourth straight win and 5-2 record before heading back home for a big MNF matchup against the Bears. 

Seahawks @ Rams
I don’t care if Sam Bradford didn’t tear up his knee.  The Rams weren’t beating Seattle.  Pad up Kellen Clemens.  So not only will the Rams lose this week, by rule of the Seattle trend, they’ll lose next week at home against the Titans. 

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