2013 NFL Predictions - NFC North

1) Green Bay Packers

The Packers had double digit wins for the fourth straight year, but the ’12 season reeked of disappointment, especially being dominated by the 49ers in the playoffs.  Has the Packer magic worn off, or are the former champs under the radar heading into ’13?

He didn’t win his second MVP last year, but I still list Aaron Rodgers as the best player in the game.  Quarterback solidifies itself more and more each year as the most important position in the sport, and there’s not a better combo of arm, legs, guts, and intelligence in it.  What’s even more impressive is how Rodgers has become the game’s best while having no threat of a run game the last three seasons.  With the drafting of Eddie Lacy, the Packers are now dangerous on the ground.  I have no delusions that they’ll become a balanced offense, but adding a talented big back now forces defenses to respect the run.  When Rodgers does drop back to pass he won’t be looking for Greg Jennings anymore.  After seven years in Green Bay, Jennings has joined the rival Vikings.  That said, I don’t expect the passing game to miss a beat.  Randall Cobb exploded for 80 catches and 9 total TDs in ’12 and, not counting Rodgers, is the team’s most dangerous weapon.  James Jones figured it out and had a career year, doubling his previous season TD high of seven.  I think he has another strong season.  Jordy Nelson fought injuries most of the year and wasn’t the vertical playmaker he had been in ’11.  He’s slowed by an injury this preseason, so his will be a situation to monitor.  Jermichael Finley might be this year’s Jones.  Reports have him and Rodgers clicking better than ever.  We shall see.  Only the Cardinals’ excuse for an offensive line surrendered more sacks than the Packers last year, and Rodgers is one of the most mobile (not necessarily fastest) QBs in the game.  Some of that is on Rodgers.  I saw him try to make too much happen at times and hold the ball longer than he should have.  He wasn’t as decisive as he’d been the last two seasons.  The rest (and most) of the blame goes to the offensive line.  Sadly, they’re not off to a good start this year, as Bryan Bulaga is done with an ACL injury.  The fact that Mike McCarthy is starting a rookie on Rodgers’ blind side should tell you all you need to know about his opinion of Marshall Newhouse.  The guards flip flopped.  Josh Sitton moved to the left side, and TJ Lang moved to the right due in part to how well Sitton did at left guard in the Pro Bowl.

It won’t matter how good the Packers offense is if the defense doesn’t step up, especially considering the high odds of whoever wins the NFC having to go through Seattle and/or San Francisco.  Lacy gets the most attention from this year’s draftees, but Datone Jones, the guy picked first by the Packers, has a chance to be as impactful on the other side of the ball.  Green Bay tried and failed the last two offseasons to fill the hole left by Cullen Jenkins.  I believe adding Jones addresses the hole.  Projecting as a force against both the pass and the run, I love lining him up next to BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett.  The former is coming off what has to be a disappointing season, as he wasn’t the impactful player from the previous two seasons.  I’ve got to think adding Jones helps that.  At linebacker, Clay Matthews remains the Packers playmaker.  Impressively, he was able to tally 13 sacks despite the Packers not having any other legit pass rushers.  Nick Perry’s rookie season was basically a lost one, as he was unimpressive in the six games he did suite up.  They’ve got to get a lot more from him this season, and preseason reports have been positive.  The Packers are a solid three deep at corner with Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, and Sam Shields.  I like Shield and think he’s in line for a big contract real soon.  Charles Woodson was declining, but they didn’t work hard enough to upgrade the position.  I’m big on Morgan Burnett at strong safety but am holding my breath on MD Jennings. 

The Packers didn’t have a lot going for them last year, but the threat of a run game should work wonders this year.  I think they’re better defensively but still have to show that they can bang heads with Seattle and San Fran and emerge victorious. 

MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Breakout – Datone Jones
Disappointment – Jordy Nelson

2) Chicago Bears

Last year’s Bears owned the dubious distinction of being the league’s only 10 win team not to make the playoffs.  Their downfall was a 1-5 stretch from November through December, all games against teams that made the playoffs. 

Defense isn’t the problem in Chicago.  The Bears were able to make a run at the playoffs despite having the league’s 28^th rated offense in terms of yards per game.  Enter Marc Trestman, the new head coach of the Chicago Bears.  The reputed offensive coordinator / QB coach is the best offensive mind this team has seen in quite some time.  I’m intrigued by this situation.  Jay Cutler is one of the more off-putting players in the game.  He’s rude.  He hits his teammates.  He’s just not a real friendly guy.  While he’ll never be confused with Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, Cutler does own a 34-22 record as QB of the Bears.  He’s got great chemistry with Brandon Marshall, and I think Alshon Jeffrey has a chance to be a threatening #2.  Free agent signing Martellus Bennett is a huge upgrade over Kellen Davis and his pathetic 19 receptions last season.  Matt Forte could be in for a career year, as I believe Trestman will make better use of his skills set.  In addition to Trestman, the Bears upgraded the offense by signing left tackle Jermon Bushrod and drafting right guard Kyle Long.  They’re still a below average unit up front, but both the on-field and off-field additions should dramatically improve upon last year’s 28^th place ranking. 

For the first time in 14 years the Bears will suit up without Brian Urlacher as a member of the team.  The eight time Pro Bowler retired after flirting with the idea of signing with another team this offseason.  Who replaces Urlacher?  Free agent DJ Williams and draftee Jon Bostic will replace him on the roster, but his presence will be sorely missed.  Lance Briggs returns on the weak side for what seems like his 50^th year with the Bears.  He’s still productive, but I like Khaseem Greene as a guy to bring along slowly as his eventual replacement.  Julius Peppers is still the best player on defense.  I’m not sure it’s fair to consider him underrated, but due to his non-spotlight-seeking personality, I think Peppers goes a bit under the radar for as great of a player he is.  He’s missed just 6 games in his 11 year career (4 of those coming in his rookie year) and is consistently one of the league leaders in sacks.  I like the potential of Corey Wootton and Shea McClellin as complimentary pass rushers.  Henry Melton is one of the game’s best interior pass rushers and is a handful with or without Peppers’ presence.  Most teams would love to have a secondary as reliable as Chicago’s.  They’re not incredibly flashy, but Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are easily one of the best corner combos in the league.  Just ask Aaron Rodgers. 

I like the Trestman hire and believe it will be a much more productive (and stable) situation on offense than they’ve known, especially compared to what they were under the genius that was Mike Martz.  Unintentionally sadistically, I see these Bears team as another double digit winning, fringe playoff team. 

MVP – Matt Forte

Breakout – Shea McClellin

Disappointment – DJ Williams

3) Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson put the Vikings on his back last year and was reasons 1, 2, and 3 why this team made the playoffs.  If I played the word association game with this team, a negative thought would come to mind, but this is a franchise that has made the playoffs three of the last five seasons, which is more than the Cowboys and Bears combined. 

If you didn’t already know, MVPeterson showed himself to be an absolute freak last year, winning the league rushing title in Usain Bolt style, all while coming back from a late ’11 ACL injury.  Dude is insane.  He’ll have to produce another MVP caliber season for this team to have any shot at making the postseason.  He’s the Miguel Cabrera of the NFL.  Unfortunately for the Vikings, they’ve been held back, not elevated, by the play of their QB, Christian Ponder.  I love Ponder and have an obvious bias, but he has an admittedly limited skill set that will keep the Vikings from being an elite team.  They signed Greg Jennings, who is the best pure receiver (non-Harvin tpe) they’ve had since Randy Moss, and took Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round of the draft.  If you look up ‘security blanket’ in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Kyle Rudolph.  Ponder relied on him heavily last season in the red zone.  If you consider his chemistry with Rudolph and the additions of Jennings and Patterson, you’ve got to like Ponder’s chances of showing progress this season.

This defense isn’t as feared as it once was.  That’s not a shot at Jared Allen, the team’s leading pass rusher who notched “only” 12 sacks a year after tallying 20.  They simply lack any presence outside of Rodeo and will struggle to consistently hang with the Packers, Bears, and possibly Lions.  Brian Robison and Everson Griffen had fine years as well, but they obviously benefit from Allen’s presence.  Sharrif Floyd fell in Minny’s lap in the draft.  I like their depth in the middle with him, Kevin Williams, Letroy Guion, and Fred Evans.  I don’t like what’s going on at linebacker.  Chad Greenway isn’t fully recovered from knee surgery, and free agent signing Desmond Bishop can’t get healthy.  Instability at linebacker may be their downfall.  I’m not quite sure why the Vikings got rid of Antoine Winfield.  He was easily their best corner, despite being a decrepit 36 years old.  They did however take my favorite corner in the draft, Xavier Rhodes.  He and Ryan Cook will be tested heavily, especially within the division.  Harrison Smith had a strong rookie season, but they continue to lack at the other safety position. 

They were overachievers as a team last season thanks to an MVP season from Peterson, and I think he can come close to that kind of year again.  They’ll absolutely need it if they hope to be playing again in January. 

MVP – Adrian Peterson

Breakout – Xavier Rhodes

Disappointment – Desmond Bishop

4) Detroit Lions

There’s just something about this team that screams “loser” to me.  Great individual talent but a mess of a team.  How else can you explain a roster like this having a 4-12 record last season? 

Matthew Stafford finished second to Drew Brees is total passing yards last year but was a disappointing 19^th in touchdowns with 20.  The fact that Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for more touchdowns that the guy who was second in the league in yardage should say something.  Can Stafford produce when it matters?  Not to discount Stafford, but a great bit of his yardage comes via the beast of a man that is Calvin Johnson.  Easily the biggest downfield threat in football, Johnson, not Stafford, is the reason the Lions are a productive on this side of the ball as they are.  Ryan Broyles, he of the dual ACL injuries, is expected to rise to the task of #2 receiver.  I’ve never been a huge Reggie Bush fan, but this has to be the perfect fit for the former ‘Phin.  In this offense, he has a chance to be as productive in the passing game as he was in his first two years as a pro (88 receptions in ’06 and 73 receptions in ’07).  Calvin’s obviously the man, but don’t be surprised when Bush finishes second on the team in receptions, by a wide margin.  Mikel Leshoure led the team in rushing in ’12, but I think Joique Bell will end up being more of a factor on offense this season when (not if) Bush misses time with an injury.

The Lions have been a disappointment on this side of the ball as well, but the blame cannot be placed on the two men in the middle.  Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly may be the most dominant pair of defensive tackles in the game.  Farily closed the gap between the two significantly last season and may prove to be Suh’s equal before all is said and done in ’13.  First round pick Ziggy Ansah replaces free agent Cliff Avril at defensive end and gives them a raw, albeit athletic pass rusher.  Jason Jones is a steady, if not spectacular presence on the other side.  I like Stephen Tulloch, but I think the lack of playmaking potential at linebacker will hurt the Lions this year.  They got quite a bit better in the secondary with the additions of Darius Slay and Glover Quin.  I liked Slay more than his MSU teammate Johnthan Banks and think he’s going to be a solid cover man across from Chris Houston.  Quinn is a similarly strong pairing with Louis Delmas. 

Aside from ’11, which was their one playoff season that ended in forgettable fashion, this is a team that has gone 12-36 under Jim Schwartz.  Unless they can repeat the 10-6 season of ’11, the Schwartz won’t be with Detroit in ’14.  I just don’t get a good feeling at all about this team and have to place them fourth.

MVP – Calvin Johnson

Breakout – Joique Bell

Disappointment – Matthew Stafford

Division MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Division Breakout – Datone Jones

Division Disappointment – Matthew Stafford

NFL Picks - Week 1 - Thursday Kickoff Edition

It’s FINALLY here.  Jameis Winston has already won the Heisman with his performance at Pitt, and the Bucs have yet to lose.  Life is good. 

Just to make sure I get them all on the record, here’s my pick for tonight’s opener:

Ravens @ Broncos

What should be another fabulous season kicks off with Denver’s rematch against the defending champs.  Baltimore keeps it close, but Peyton gets his revenge and throws three TDs (something he did in six of eight home games last year), two of them to Demaryius Thomas.    

Broncos 27

Ravens 24

2013 NFL Predictions - NFC East

1) Washington Redskins

The Redskins were relevant last year for the first time in a while.  A 10-6 record and playoff appearance gave fans a reason to be excited, but spending the offseason following the medical reports of their franchise QB as well as the back and forth sniping between said QB and Mike Shanahan tarnished that a bit.    

RGIII had a spectacular first season and topped Andrew Luck for the annual top rookie honor, but I’m sure he would trade that award to not be rehabbing a torn ACL as he heads into his sophomore campaign.  He was held out of preseason action but is reportedly ready to go; a fact that received a bit of media attention this preseason.  Unless he changes his style of play (namely knowing when to give up on a play) I worry that the volume of hits he takes will limit his explosiveness and possibly cost him games.  I think we’ll see a good bit of Kirk Cousins this season, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.  Alfred Morris goes under the radar, but all he did as a rookie was finish second in the league in rushing behind Adrian Peterson as leader of the league’s most productive ground game.  Roy Helu is more than capable of taking over the load should he be needed.  I don’t love their receivers as a group, but I do think Pierre Garcon is in line for a really big year.  He’s finally over his foot issues and is unquestionably RGIII’s primary target.  Behind him Josh Morgan, Leonard Hankerson, and Santana Moss are containable.  Fred Davis is back from his Achilles injury and looked good this preseason.  He could end up RGIII’s second favorite target behind Garcon. 

Washington left a bit to be desired on this side of the ball, especially when it came to stopping the pass.  Only the Bucs and Saints surrendered more yards through the air than did the Skins.  DeAngelo Hall is the most overrated corner in the game, and Josh Wilson isn’t anything special.  Washington took David Amerson in the draft, and it won’t take him long to become the best corner on the team.  The theme is repeated at safety where Philip Thomas should rise above the mediocre Brandon Meriweather and Reed Doughty.  Everyone has injuries, but the Skins losing Brian Orakpo in week two for the year was a crushing blow for this defense.  That left Ryan Kerrigan as the lone pass rushing threat, in an otherwise non-threatening defense.  London Fletcher again led the team in tackles and looks like he can play another 20 years.  Getting a healthy Orakpo would help any defense, but also having a healthy Adam Carriker and better talent in the secondary could help turn things around on defense.  

I saw what the Shanahans did with a rookie QB, a rookie RB, and without their best pass rusher.  It would be foolish to think they won’t be able to handle adversity, such as RGIII missing some time (which I think will happen).  The Redskins repeat.  

MVP – RGIII

Breakout – David Amerson

Disappointment – DeAngelo Hall

2) Dallas Cowboys

With three straight third place finishes, Jerry Jones has to be as antsy as ever for his investment to start paying dividends.  As a result, Jason Garrett enters the season on a hotter seat than any other coach in the league.

I don’t think there’s a QB in the NFL that draws as much “hate” as Tony Romo.  You’d think he was Sanchez or Locker with the amount of criticism the guy gets.  He’s easily the best QB they’ve had since Troy Aikman, but being winless in the postseason since ’09 almost always comes back to (fairly or unfairly) the guy under center.  Speaking of center, first round reach Travis Frederick is the only addition they’ve made to a poor offensive line.  Tyron Smith didn’t progress last year, and Doug Free regressed even more, if that’s possible.  Give Tom Brady and Peyton Manning this protection, and they’ll start hearing boos too.  Jason Witten may still be Romo’s favorite target, but Dez Bryant showed late last season that he’s on his way to becoming one of the game’s elite receivers by totaling 50 receptions and 10 TDs in his last 8 games.  Miles Austin has become a forgotten man as hamstring issues have limited his explosiveness the last couple of seasons.  You could do a lot worse than him as your #2 receiver.  In Dallas, the running game takes a back seat to the passing game.  That will continue to be the case if DeMarco Murray can’t put together a complete season.  There’s talent but no experience behind him on the depth chart.

Monte Kiffin returns to the NFL as the Cowboys defensive coordinator.  With Kiffin comes a switch to a 4-3 front, but much of last year’s base personnel returns.  How will they adjust to the new scheme?  How aggressive will this scheme be?  DeMarcus Ware is a factor in any scheme, so he should have no trouble adjusting.  Anthony Spencer on the other hand will be one to watch.  Will he reach double digit sacks again?  Jason Hatcher is a force in the middle, but Jay Ratliff has been in a decline both on and off the field.  Bruce Carter should thrive at WLB being able to show off more of his speed and pursuit in that role.  Sean Lee is a force when healthy, but he missed most of last year with a foot injury.  They’re good at corner with the veteran Brandon Carr and second year player Morris Claiborne.  Like Bryant, Claiborne’s play improved down the stretch last year.  My biggest concern about this defense is at safety where they should be tested quite a bit within the division.  Barry Church is returning from an Achilles injury, and Will Allen is an uninspiring veteran signed this offseason.

I’m still in Romo’s corner, but the Cowboys can’t afford to have another dismal year on the offensive line, nor can they remain at the bottom of the league in rushing.  I think those will be the key reasons they don’t win the division.

MVP – Tony Romo

Breakout – Bruce Carter

Disappointment – Anthony Spencer  

3) New York Giants

The Giants missed the postseason for the third time in three seasons, falling horribly apart in the second half by losing five of their last eight games.  An offseason has passed, but questions still remain regarding Coughlin’s crew.   

It’s no coincidence that the Giants’ season headed south when Eli Manning’s play deteriorated.  I’d like to blame it on a lack of weapons, but even with Hakeem Nicks struggling with injuries throughout the season, he had the dynamic Victor Cruz and skilled Martellus Bennett at full go and a running game that was still one of the league’s most productive.  Does he bounce back, or is this the Eli that Giants should expect to see in ’13?  Cruz got paid and can now focus on putting up a third straight 80+ catch and 9+ score season.  I’m worried about Nicks, but second year receiver Rueben Randle is ready to jump in and prove himself.  Brandon Myers replaces Bennett at tight end, but I don’t think that’s an upgrade.  David Wilson takes over as the primary ball carrier, and his workload increased when Andre Brown broke his leg in preseason action.  Whether he’s doing it for motivational purposes or not, Coach Coughlin is not happy with Wilson’s progress as a pass blocker.  The Giants will struggle if Wilson isn’t able to rise to the occasion as the feature back, but I think he’ll be fine. 

How worried are Giants fans about JPP?  Their best pass rusher underwent back surgery this offseason and won’t be on the field when the Giants take on the Cowboys to open the regular season.  Pierre-Paul exploded in ’11 with 16.5 sacks but fell back to earth with ten less in ’12.  They’ll be in bad shape if he can’t be his usual terrifying self seeing as how the Giants as a team had 15 less sacks in ’12 than they did the previous year.  Osi Umenyiora finally got his way and is out of New York, so he’s no longer an option.  The Giants will need Justin Tuck to regain his ’10 form after two straight disappointing seasons.  Mathias Kiwankua will get his wish of moving back to defensive end, and they’ll need him to be ‘the guy’ until JPP returns.  Cullen Jenkins and Johnathan Hankins are large (literally and figuratively) additions to the interior, but unfortunately, the Giants didn’t get any better at linebacker this offseason.  Keith Rivers, Mark Herzlich, and either Spencer Paysinger or Jacquian Williams will be the starters.  The secondary may be worse.  Corey Webster stunk last season, Prince Amukamara hasn’t come anywhere close to meeting expectations, and Terrell Thomas is trying to come back from last year’s ACL injury.  The more they let Antrel Rolle play at safety, the better off they’ll be.  Stevie Brown becomes a starter with Kenny Phillips joining the Eagles.

The fact that there’s no clear leader in this division plays into the Giants favor, but I worry that the defense won’t be able to make up for any offensive shortcomings, especially as long as JPP is out. 

MVP – Eli Manning

Breakout – David Wilson

Disappointment – Jason Pierre-Paul

4) Philadelphia Eagles

The most intriguing team may be the one expected by many to finish dead last.  The Chip Kelly experiment is underway, and everyone is wondering just how well his offensive style will do in the pros.  Unfortunately, it looks like the other side of the ball may be their undoing.

Dog Killer won the starting job over Nick Foles, but given the former’s health and performance in recent years, the latter should stay loose.  If DK can stay healthy he’s got a chance at a huge bounce back season in Kelly’s up tempo offense.  The one guy they’ll need to bounce back most is running back LeSean McCoy.  After scoring a whopping 17 TDs on the ground in ’11, McCoy totaled an extremely disappointing 2 in ’12.  I think he bounces back this year; maybe not all the way to 17 TDs but significantly nonetheless.  Bryce Brown showed himself to be capable of handling the load in McCoy’s absence and figures to be a regular part of Kelly’s offense.  DeSean Jackson is a player who should thrive in this offense.  He’s a dynamic talent whose skill set Kelly is sure to take advantage of.  Jeremy Maclin’s season is over before it started after an ACL tear in training camp which will have the politically incorrect Riley Cooper starting in his place.  There’s good news up front where the offensive line should be much improved over last year.  Jason Peters appears healthy at left tackle, and Jason Kelce returns after missing nearly all of last season.  Getting those two back is huge, as was adding the athletic Lane Johnson in the first round of the draft.

Here’s where I expect to see problems.  Philly was one of the worst teams in the league in points allowed last season, and judging by the way things went this preseason, this year looks like a repeat.  The Eagles will be running a new defense with quite a bit of new personnel.  Rarely does that work seamlessly.  I like Fletcher Cox who should fit well next to Isaac Sopoaga up front.  Their top pass rushers look to be Trent Cole and Connor Barwin.  Both are coming off largely disappointing seasons where they each tallied three sacks after posting at least 11 in ’11 (Barwin had 11.5).  Brandon Graham has yet to meet expectations but remains in the mix.  Second year LB Mychal Kendricks should get a chance to display his versatility, but I wonder if DeMeco Ryans will regress again back in a 3-4 set?  Here lies the biggest mess.  Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher replace Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  While the latter two were disappointments in Philly’s odd scheme, I’m not sure the new duo is going to have a ton of success against teams like Dallas and New York who go vertical regularly.  Free agent signing Kenny Phillips didn’t even make the final cut, so Nate Allen and another free agent, Patrick Chung, will be the safeties.  Not promising.

I think the Eagles will score a lot of points on offense but surrender even more on defense.  It will be entertaining, but I don’t expect them to win many more than the four they won last year. 

MVP – LeSean McCoy

Breakout – Mychal Kendricks

Disappointment – Trent Cole

Division MVP – Tony Romo

Division Breakout – David Wilson

Division Disappointment – Jason Pierre-Paul

2013 NFL Predictions - AFC West

1) Denver Broncos

It didn’t end well (keep your head up Rahim Moore), but Peyton Manning’s first season back was a huge success.  How will they follow up a 13 win and #1 seed season that ended with a deeply deflating loss?

As if Manning and this passing game wasn’t dangerous enough already, the Broncos stole Tom Brady’s security blanket, Wes Welker.  I wouldn’t think he’s going to catch 100 balls in an offense that already has a legit #1 in Demaryius Thomas and a solid #2 in Eric Decker, but I’m sure he’d be happy with another deep playoff run.  Thomas is easily a top 10 receiver in the league.  He’s not as refined as Marshall, Cobb, or Green, but only Calvin Johnson trumps him from a dominance potential standpoint in my opinion.  I think Manning has another MVP caliber season or two in him, and having that trio of receivers will extend that window.  They also got better in the running game, adding Montee Ball in the draft.  Last year’s Doak Walker winner is expected to eventually sit atop the Broncos depth chart, but for now it looks like he and Ronnie Hillman will be sharing those duties.    

Let’s get the bad news out of the way.  Defensive stud Von Miller, he of 30 sacks in two years as a pro, is out for the first 6 games of the season due to repeated violations of the league’s substance abuse policy.  This was on the heels of losing Elvis Dumervil to a bizarre contract mix up and after missing out on Dwight Freeney and John Abraham in free agency.  So that’s well more than half of their sack production that is either playing elsewhere or suspended for a third of the season.   They need that Robert Ayers to play like a starter more now than ever.  Last year’s second round pick, Derek Wolfe, looks like a steal.  He played all along the line last year but settles in as the starting RE this year.  They brought in Terrance Knighton and drafted Sylvester Williams to give them a large three man rotation at tackle.  After the way last year ended, the spotlight should be awfully bright on this secondary.  Future HOFer Champ Bailey remains at left corner, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was brought in on the cheap to start on the right side.  Tony Carter and Chris Harris are nice depth.  Here’s hoping Rahim Moore makes a game-winning play or two this year. 

Is this still the team that ran off 11 straight wins starting in October?  How much will they miss Miller? 

MVP – Peyton Manning

Breakout – Montee Ball

Disappointment – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

2) Kansas City Chiefs

When you have the worst record in the league, change is expected.  Change happened.  Andy Reid takes over as head coach after another forgettable season in Philly.  Can he turn around a franchise that has had one winning season out of the last six?

Alex Smith isn’t Len Dawson, but he’s an upgrade over the Cassel-Thigpen-Huard trio that languished in KC for the last seven seasons.  The former Niner should give Reid his high percentage, albeit low risk passer.  Smith had become a better protector of the football over the last couple of seasons, so at a minimum he’s unlikely to be the turnover machine Cassel became.  If Jamaal Charles has been paying attention to things in Philly, he should be ecstatic about Reid taking over.  Charles is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and will undoubtedly be used in the same manner Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy were in Philly.  I expect him to have a huge year.  Dwayne Bowe should be happy now.  He got paid, and as long as he’s still hungry, he’s got a chance to be a huge producer in the most explosive offensive he’s been a part of as a pro.  They still lack anything behind Bowe and gave up on bust Jon Baldwin by dealing him to San Fran.  Expect to see a lot of Charles and Bowe.  The Chiefs spent the #1 overall pick in the draft on Eric Fisher, who for now will start at right tackle with Branden Albert remaining at left tackle.  With those two and Rodney Hudson and Jon Asamoah, the Chiefs have one the better young lines in the game. 

You’ve got to be impressed with the young talent on this Chiefs defense.  The front seven is anchored by the trio of Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, and Derrick Johnson.  Houston is the guy I wanted the Bucs to get the year they drafted Clayborn and Bowers.  Last year he registered 9.5 sacks or 2.5 sacks less than what Clayborn and Bowers have combined for in their careers.  But I digress.  Hali barely missed out on his third straight double digit sack season and pairs with Houston for one of the more impressive pass rushing duos in the game.  Johnson does a great job of containing the action up front, and what does get past him is usually snuffed out by Eric Berry.  The Chiefs safety has a year under his belt from that knee injury and should be poised for the best season of his career.  The Chiefs already had the very dependable Brandon Flowers at one corner spot, but the Chiefs doubled down this offseason bringing in both Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson.  The Broncos/Chiefs matchups should be interesting. 

I don’t want to overhype a team that won just two games the previous season, but this is a club that had five Pro Bowlers last year, six if you count punter Dustin Colquitt.  The division is wide open behind the Broncos, and the Chiefs have enough talent and, now, coaching to be a playoff threat.

MVP – Jamaal Charles

Breakout – Eric Berry

Disappointment – Sean Smith

3) San Diego Chargers

I consider it an accomplishment that last year’s Chargers team won seven games.  They weren’t very good on either side of the ball, and I can’t say I’m impressed with their efforts to improve.

Things for the Chargers start and end with Philip Rivers.  Once thought of as the shield’s heir apparent to Brady and Manning, Rivers may become irrelevant before either legend is out of the game.  He’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons and doesn’t appear to be showing signs of coming back.  All of these guys are competitive, but I’ve got to think that someone as physically animated as Rivers often is has to be wearing down due to continually falling short of expectations.  Speaking of falling short, Ryan Mathews certainly hasn’t become the workhorse the Chargers were hoping they traded up in the draft for in ’10.  He has the physical gifts and has had an impressive preseason.  Is this his year?  I do like their acquisition of Danny Woodhead, the free agent from New England.  Don’t be surprised if the Chadron State product is a big part of the offense.  San Diego is still trying to replace Vincent Jackson.  Malcolm Floyd, Vincent Brown, Eddie Royal, and rookie Keenan Allen lead a receiver group that should have Rivers shaking his head a lot again this year.  Antonio Gates is supposedly finally over his foot issues, but how much does he have left at this point?

Corey Liuget is the best player up front, and they’ll need a big second year from him as last year’s first round pick Melvin Ingram looks to be out for the year with an ACL injury.  Dwight Freeney was signed to stop the bleeding, but how successful will he be at 33 and without the Indy turf?  The other OLB, Jarrett Johnson, didn’t make much of an impact in his first year as a Charger.  As if I didn’t have enough reasons to be down on this squad, they went out and drafted drama queen Manti Te’o to solidify the middle of the defense.  I can’t say I’m optimistic.  Not that they could afford it, but the Chargers took a big step back at corner this offseason, replacing the departed Antoine Caron and Quentin Jammer with Derek Cox and Shareece Wright.  Eric Weddle is the only guy in the secondary that causes offenses to pause.

The only thing keeping this team out of the basement is the Raiders. 

MVP – Eric Weddle

Breakout – Corey Liuget

Disappointment – Manti Te’o

4) Oakland Raiders

I’ll be quick here. 

After the failed Carson Palmer experiment, the Raiders are starting over yet again at QB.  Matt Flynn sat behind Russell Wilson last year, and he may end up sitting behind Terrell Pryor this year.  The former Seahawk and Packer had a bad preseason, and the more physically gifted, yet mechanically inept Pryor may be given the job.  Either way, the Raiders will feature a limited passer as the #1 QB for a team with limited weapons.  Darren McFadden is still looking for his first 16 game season as a pro, and with his wreck of an offensive line, he’s unlikely to see 16 this year either.  McFadden is the name, but I think Marcel Reece is the better pure player in the backfield.  With the departures of Brandon Myers and Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore is the lone passing game weapon, and with Flynn’s lack of arm strength, the Raiders won’t be able to utilize Moore’s greatest asset of tremendous deep speed. 

Richard Seymour, Desmond Bryant, Tommy Kelly, Michael Huff, and draft disappointment Rolando McClain are all gone.  Lamarr Houston is their best player up front, which isn’t saying much if you scan the depth chart.  Defensive tackle signings Pat Sims and Vance Walker should help against the run, but they’ve got no one outside of Houston to put pressure on the passer.  The linebacker unit is uninspiring, and the starting cornerback duo of Mike Jenkins and Tracy Porter should be picked apart regularly.  Charles Woodson must really love football (and/or money) to return to this mess.

This squad is my favorite to pick first in next year’s draft.

MVP – Marcel Reece

Breakout – no one

Disappointment – Flynn/Pryor; whoever plays more games at QB

Division MVP – Peyton Manning

Division Breakout – Eric Berry

Division Disappointment – Flynn/Pryor; whoever plays more games at QB

2013 NFL Predictions - AFC South

1) Houston Texans

You might forget that the Texans were on their way to the #1 seed in the AFC last year before faltering down the stretch, losing three of their last four regular season games in ugly fashion.  They made it past the Bengals in the Wild Card round but were handled by Brady and company in the next round.  Last year Houston found out just how hard it is to stay on top in this league.  They took the figurative knockout punch and couldn’t get up off the canvas.  How will they respond in their next fight?

Matt Schaub has been a consistent presence under center in Houston, but they’d be a much more dangerous team if he could raise his game another level.  Teams fear Arian Foster and still respect Andre Johnson, but you don’t get the sense that a lot of extra game planning is focused specifically on Schaub.  I’m still a fan, but again, I wish he’d step his game up.  Foster had a down year by his standards, finishing just sixth in the league in rushing and posting a career low 4.1 ypc, and as I type this he has yet to get on the field at all this preseason because of leg and back injuries.  Johnson bounced back from two straight disappointing seasons and posted the second highest reception total of his career.  The stats are nice, but Johnson appears to have passed his prime as a game changing talent.  The Texans have needed a better #2 for a long time, but now they need to start grooming a new #1.  Enter DeAndre Hopkins.  I’m a big fan of this receiver (my second favorite in the draft behind Quinton Patton) and think Houston made an excellent selection.  He’s a big play receiver in a big play offense, and I think his quickness and footwork/precision are going to make him an instant contributor. 

If we play the word association game, and I say “Texans defense”, you’d be lying if you said JJ Watt was not your first thought.  Last year’s Defensive Player of the Year exploded for 20.5 sacks and an insane 16 defended passes.  If he’s not taking the QB to the ground, he’s swatting down his passes.  The guy is the best in the game at what he does, and there’s no reason to think he can’t or won’t get better.  I think they’re whole defense gets better this year.  Antonio Smith is a great talent in his own right and the perfect Watt compliment.  Brian Cushing returns from the ACL injury that limited him to five games last year, and Brooks Reed will man one of the outside linebacker spots.  The other one will be occupied by Whitney Mercilus, the second year player who registered a cool six sacks in his debut season.  If you’re going to have concerns about this defense, they’ll reside in the secondary.  Ed Reed replaces Glover Quin, but the former Raven doesn’t appear to be close to game-ready as the preseason winds down.  What will they get from him?  At corner Kareem Jackson had a really strong ’12 season, but Johnathan Joseph is coming off double sports hernia surgery.  Can’t say I’ve had that malady, but it doesn’t sound fun. 

Houston will once again win a lot of regular season games (especially in the division), but they’ve got to be able to perform when it matters most.  Anything less than an appearance in the conference title game would have to be considered a disappointment. 

MVP – JJ Watt

Breakout – DeAndre Hopkins

Disappointment – Ed Reed

2) Indianapolis Colts

It’s pretty clear that the Texans and Colts are the two best teams in the division.  Up next for the Colts is closing that gap between them and the Texans.  Indy was one of the surprise teams from ’12, transitioning from the “Suck for Luck” campaign to the “Win One for Chuck” theme of last year.  I won’t bore you with the numbers, but the Colts were statistically very fortunate last season.  Will the ball bounce their way as often in ’13?

Andrew Luck looked every bit the #1 pick last year, leading the previously 2-14 Colts to an amazing 11 win season and a trip to the playoffs.  As impressive as he was last season, Luck must be smarter with the ball and his body.  Enter Pep Hamilton, Lucks’ offensive coordinator his last year at Stanford.  I think Luck will have an even better ’13 season under Hamilton, cutting down on the low percentage plays that led to turnovers and not taking as many hits while making plays with his feet.  Reggie Wayne showed that rumors of his demise had been greatly exaggerated by finishing sixth in the league with 106 receptions.  The veteran and the rookie were clearly on the same page from the get go.  TY Hilton provides big play potential, and Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are plus talents in the middle.  I’m a big fan of the former as I think he has a chance to be one of the better all-round TEs in the game.  Ahmad Bradshaw and his funky foot were brought in to give the Colts their first 1,000 yard rusher since Joseph Addai eclipsed the mark by 72 yards six seasons ago, but he didn’t notch a single carry in the preseason.  Expect to see a lot of Vick Ballard again this year.   

As good as the Colts were at churning out yards on offense, they remained among the league’s worst in giving them up on defense.  I’m still not sure I like what’s going on with this side of the football.  Gone is longtime pass rusher Dwight Freeney who was replaced by perennial Packer disappointment, Erik Walden.  Robert Mathis is still here, and they drafted Bjoern Werner to eventually replace him.  While I love Werner’s game, I’m not sure this scheme maximizes his potential.  Perplexing pick.  It doesn’t appear that they’ll get to the passer with any more frequency this season, so the secondary will again be under constant fire.  They should be better equipped to respond this year.  Greg Toler was signed to compliment Vontae Davis at corner, and LaRon Landry was brought in to give them a presence at safety.  I liked Toler as a target for the Bucs, and Landry is as fierce as they come when healthy. 

Even with improvements on both sides of the ball, I think the Colts will be fortunate to repeat least year’s win total.  It should still be plenty good for a second place finish, but with teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, and Chiefs making noise in the conference, will they win enough to get back to the postseason? 

MVP – Andrew Luck

Breakout – Dwayne Allen

Disappointment – Darrius Heyward-Bey

3) Tennessee Titans

It seems like forever ago that the Titans were relevant, but they’re just five seasons removed from a 13-3 season.  That’s what happens when you come off a season with, seriously, only one meaningful win (week 6 v. Pittsburgh).  The combined wins of the other five teams they beat was a whopping 25.

Chris Johnson is an enigma.  It feels like he’s been around forever, but this is just his sixth season.  He’s a big name player who has put together two disappointing seasons in a row, but if you really look at things, aside from the huge ’09 season where he totaled over 2,500 yards from scrimmage, he’s been unspectacular.  The Titans invested heavily in upgrading his blocking this offseason, adding guards Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack and three other veteran linemen.  The time is now for Johnson to show that he’s still a special talent.  It’s also time for Jake Locker to figure it out or take a seat.  Entering his third season as a pro and second as starter Locker hasn’t shown much progression and is still far too inaccurate for this level.  They’ve got a nice, not great, stable of receivers for him to work with, including Kendall Wright, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Justin Hunter.  Wright had an impressive rookie season and is Lockers’ primary target at this point.  Britt, disappointingly, can’t get over his knee issues. 

There’s a bit to like on the defensive side of the ball.  Derrick Morgan looked to be coming into his own, finally, as a pass rusher late last season, registering four sacks in his final four games.  They brought in Sammie Lee Hill to go with Jerrell Casey, giving them a pair of run stuffing tackles.  I like their young linebacker trio – Zach Brown, Colin McCarthy, and Akeem Ayers.  Both Brown and Ayers showed a well-rounded game last year; making plays against the run, against the pass, and getting after the passer for a combined 11.5 sacks.  Things should get better in the secondary with scheme and personnel changes.  Moving to a press man scheme will make better use of Jason McCourty’s skills and get Tommie Campbell on the field more.  Michael Griffin has been awful at free safety, but he’s still the starter.  They’ve been working Alterraun Verner there some, so maybe he’ll take the spot soon.  Bernard Pollard looks to have the strong safety spot over fellow free agent signing George Wilson. 

I can’t get excited about this team until Locker resembles a professional passer for a decent stretch of games.  Will that happen?  Will Johnson be rejuvenated with better blocking?  We’ll find out soon enough. 

MVP – Chris Johnson

Breakout – Zach Brown

Disappointment – Jake Locker

4) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Mike Mularkey experiment didn’t last too long did it?  Out after 16 games (2 of them wins), the Jaguars are looking for their third coach in three seasons.  Enter Gus Bradley.  The talent on the roster didn’t change drastically this offseason, but Bradley brings an impressive scheme and background to Jacksonville.

‘Dysfunctional’ may not be the best way to describe the Jaguars, but that’s the word that comes to mind when I think of them.  Blaine Gabbert has been pathetic in his two years in Jacksonville and apparently hasn’t gotten any better if his play this preseason is any indicator.  Oh, and he’s entering the year with an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand.  How bad must Chad Henne be to still be sitting behind this guy?  Maurice Jones-Drew suffered the first significant injury of his career last season, limiting him to just six games and a single rushing touchdown.  It seems like he’s been around forever, but MJD is just 28 years old.  As long as his foot is healed, I like his chances to bounce back as a lethal weapon, despite the lack of surrounding talent.  Justin Blackmon hasn’t figured out how to be a pro yet.  In addition to starting the year on suspension, he can’t even behave on the sidelines as an observer.  Stay hot young man.  Cecil Shorts is the best receiver on the team.  He had five games with at least six receptions and totaled at least 100 yards four times.  If only he had a quarterback. 

Last year only the Bills and Saints surrendered more rushing yards per game than the Jaguars.  No one registered less sacks.  Bradley has nowhere to go but up with this defense.  Who are his key pieces?  Well, not Ezekiel Ansah.  Not Dion Jordan.  Nope, no pass rusher needed here.  The Jaguars thought it would be in their best interests to take a right tackle with the #2 pick in the draft rather than a pass rusher.  Tyson Alualu led the way last year with 3.5 sacks.  That’s sad.  Jason Babin will probably be their most successful pass rusher, but that’s not saying much.  Backing up a pathetic pass rush is a sorry secondary.  Derek Cox wasn’t great, but he was easily the best corner on the roster last season.  I like Dwayne Gratz, but he’s a rookie.  Teams will throw all over Alan Ball.  There’s no point discussing this group any further.  Moving on. 

These guys should once again be in the race for the first overall pick.

MVP – Maurice Jones-Drew

Breakout – Cecil Shorts

Disappointment – Justin Blackmon

Division MVP – Andrew Luck

Division Breakout – DeAndre Hopkins

Division Disappointment – Jake Locker

2013 NFL Predictions - AFC North

1) Cincinnati Bengals

Here’s my “stepping up to the big boy table” team of ’13.  They’ve won 19 games and made the playoffs in the last two seasons and have young building blocks on both sides of the ball. 

The first of their top talents is AJ Green, a third year receiver who is already among the best in the game.  And he’s doing it in a limited offense.  Andy Dalton has a limited arm, and Cinci’s complimentary receivers are, yes, limited.  I think what we’ve seen from Dalton is what we’re going to get.  He’ll keep the Bengals in games, but he won’t regularly be the reason they win them.  The NFL becomes more of a QB league every year, but you can still win with a Dilfer if you excel in other areas.  Fortunately for the Bengals, they do.  They made two great additions in the draft picking up Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard.  Eifert is a more dynamic pass catcher than Jermaine Gresham but will team with the former Sooner to maximize Dalton’s intermediate strength.  Bernard is more versatile and talented than BenJarvus Green-Ellis and should take over as primary ball carrier sooner rather than later.  I like the 1-2 combo and the passing game they’ve developed.  I was impressed by their second half run, winning 7 of 8 by an average of 14 points, and I believe it will only get better with the new additions.    

Cincinnati has possibly the most underrated defense in the game.  Geno Atkins may not be a household name just yet, but he’s the best professional at his position.  Although his sack numbers are what get him attention, he’s the total package and the #1 reason the Bengals are so successful on this side of the ball.  They retained their best pass rusher, Michael Johnson, and have depth at the position with the addition of Margus Hunt.  Undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict turned out to be quite the steal last year, and they’ve added former Steeler, James Harrison, to the linebacking crew.  He’ll have to adjust to a new defense, but he looks like a guy with some game in him still.  Rey Maualuga remains the weak link to the front seven.  Cinci’s secondary was banged up for a good bit of last year but when healthy is a deep unit.  Leon Hall is still their #1, but unfortunately last year’s highly drafted rookie, Dre Kirkpatrick, has yet to push veterans Terence Newman and Adam Jones.  Safety could be their weak spot this season.  I’m not a big Reggie Nelson fan, and George Iloka won an uninspiring camp battle for the other starting spot.

If the Bengals were a stock, I’d be buying.  Denver and New England get most of the attention when it comes to AFC contenders, but I believe Cincinnati is going to have a say before all is said and done. 

MVP – Geno Atkins

Breakout – Giovani Bernard

Disappointment – Rey Maualuga

2) Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore wasn’t the best team in the league last year, but they were the best when it mattered most.  They’ll have an even tougher Lombardi hill to climb this season.  Ray Lewis retired, and Anquan Boldin was traded to the Super Bowl runners up.  The exodus didn’t end there.  Also gone are Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, Bernard Pollard, and Cary Williams. 

You’d like go through more than a handful of names before you got to Joe Flacco when discussing the game’s best passers, but the Ravens QB, deservedly so, won over a lot of new fans with his play down the stretch last season.  There may not be a better, more consistent deep ball passer in the league.  Torrey Smith enters his third year and will be counted on to step up big time in Boldin’s absence, especially when you look at the rest of the depth chart.  Jacoby Jones has proven to be a poor #2, and the undrafted Marlon Brown may see a lot of action by default.  Not helping things in the passing game is the loss of Dennis Pitta to a hip injury for the season before it even started.  Due to the deficiencies at receiver, Ray Rice will assume an even bigger role this year.  I expect him to have a year that matches or exceeds his career season in ’11.  Bernard Pierce proved himself to be a starting caliber runner in his own right last year and figures to see plenty of touches.  That could mean more of Rice in the passing game, which would be the best way for the Ravens to mitigate the Boldin and Pitta losses given their available resources. 

The Ravens did a nice job responding to their losses on this side of the ball.  Kruger cashed in on his big year and will be replaced by Elvis Dumervil, the former Bronco who left the mile high city after a contract snafu.  Having a completely healthy Terrell Suggs is an obvious plus and gives the Ravens a fine 1-2 pass rushing combo.  Haloti Ngata remains an elite defensive lineman, but Terrence Cody is still underwhelming.  Watch for Brandon Williams, a small school guy I was high on in the draft, to make an impact.  That’s a net gain up front.  The loss at linebacker of both Ellerbe and Lewis will be tough to recover from right away, I really liked their selection of Arthur Brown in the draft.  He should be an instant contributor and one of the better rookie defenders in the entire league.  Courtney Upshaw looked like a bust last year and reportedly hasn’t made significant strides yet in camp this year.  Losing Reed hurts the Ravens more than it helps the Texans in my opinion, and the loss of Cary Williams is more than made up for by the healthy return of Lardarius Webb.  I’m big on their other corners, Jimmy Smith and Corey Graham, too. 

It was a great story, ride, or whatever you want to call it, but the Ravens aren’t likely to be among the first few teams mentioned as Super Bowl participants from the AFC.  I think they’ll be better defensively, but will the target on their back prove to be too much?

MVP – Ray Rice

Breakout – Jimmy Smith

Disappointment – Courtney Upshaw

3) Pittsburgh Steelers

These guys looked reeeeeealy old last year down the stretch in losing five of their last seven games.  Can they rebound, or will they fall further back in the division? 

Ben Roethlisberger remains one of the best innovators at his position.  He’s had to put more and more on his shoulders each season, and that looks to be the case again this time around.  Projected primary back Le’Veon Bell sustained a foot injury this preseason, so the Steelers will kick things off with the uninspiring combo of Isaac Redman, Felix Jones, and La’Rod Stephens-Howling.  I like Bell, but who knows when he’ll be ready?  Antonio Brown became Ben’s #1 target last season, and Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Markus Wheaton will be productive second and third options.  I don’t think Wallace was a huge loss, especially considering what Wheaton brings to the table.  Heath Miller’s value is understated, and he’s trying to come back from a knee injury sustained at the end of last season.  The key to this offense, once again, will be the performance of their uninspiring offensive line.  Getting last year’s draft pick, David DeCastro, back healthy is a big boost, but the flipping of tackles in training camp with Marcus Gilbert going to the right side and Mike Adams to the left doesn’t appear promising. 

Most of the familiar faces return on defense; the notable losses being veterans James Harrison and Casey Hampton.  Jason Worilds will get first shot at replacing Harrison, but first round pick Jarvis Jones should see the field quite a bit as well.  Lawrence Timmons remains their most consistent linebacker and will need to take on an even bigger role this year if the Steelers are going to contend.  Troy Polamalu is reportedly healthier now than he’s been in either of the past two seasons, but both he and his safety counterpart, Ryan Clark, are on the down side of their respective careers.  The lack of playmakers at the cornerback position should be more evident than ever this season as each of the other teams in this division pick up their passing games. 

I wasn’t big on these guys last year, and I’m a real hater this year.  They’re a tough team to bet against, but I think they’ll need too many things to go wrong with the rest of the division (namely Cincinnati and Baltimore) to make much noise. 

MVP – Ben Roethlisberger

Breakout – Le’Veon Bell

Disappointment – LaMarr Woodley

4) Cleveland Browns

The Holmgren era is over, and with it Browns fans hope is the five year stretch of four and five win seasons.  Can this team finally become relevant again? 

For years the talent on Cleveland’s offensive line went to waste as the lack of playmakers at the other offensive positions was well below par.  Things began to change last year with the addition of Trent Richardson at running back, and there should be an even bigger boost this year with Rob Chudzinksi installed as head coach and Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator.  If Josh Gordon gets his head on straight, he’ll be the featured receiver, and Jordan Cameron has a chance to be the next tight end to have his game elevated by coach Chud.  I think we’ll see good things from Brandon Weeden as this offense should emphasize his strong arm and decision making. 

The Browns focused on defense this offseason in an effort to get more consistency from a unit that has shown flashes of potential.  They’ll be huge if nothing else up front with Phil Taylor, Desmond Bryant, and Ahtyba Rubin checking in at nearly a grand combined.  They gave Jabaal Sheard more pass rush help with the additions of Kruger and first round pick Barkevious Mingo.  I’m not a Mingoholic, but he’s in a great spot since he’ll be broken in as a pass rushing specialist.  Joe Haden continues his ascent to the top of the league’s list of corners, but they’re still shuffling candidates at the other spot. 

I think this team is definitely headed in the right direction.  While an improvement upon five wins is likely, there’s too much talent in the division to expect much of a climb, if any, in the standings. 

MVP – Trent Richardson

Breakout – Jordan Cameron

Disappointment – Greg Little

Division MVP – Geno Atkins

Division Breakout – Jordan Cameron

Division Disappointment – LaMarr Woodley

2013 NFL Predictions - AFC East

1) New England Patriots

In what will likely be the league’s weakest division, I’ve got the Patriots on top for the 5^th year in a row.  That speaks as much to the lack of competition within the division as it does the continued dominance by New England.  A lot has changed for the Patriots since last we saw them.  Are they still a team to fear?

Tom Brady remains of the game’s best, but is this the year we see a decline?  He didn’t exactly finish the season on a high note, getting overwhelmed and beaten at home by Baltimore.  Remember how slow and out of rhythm he looked in that game?  How will he deal with losing Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez?  When will his other tight end be healthy?  Despite the adversity, I think we see vintage Tom Brady this year; an MVP caliber season.  What’s there to get excited about?  Danny Amendola was brought in to play the Welker role and should put up career numbers if he can stay on the field.  Undrafted free agent rookie Kenbrell Thompkins has been turning heads this preseason and has sewn up the other wideout spot.  He’s definitely a guy to watch.  Zach Sudfeld is expected to replace Gronk in the early going, and while there’s an obvious drop off in talent, the Patriots have loved what they’ve seen from him this preseason.  With the way Belichick utilizes tight ends, expect Sudfeld to remain part of the plan even when Gronk returns.  Stevan Ridley is an excellent fit in this offense as the early down back, and the play and potential of Shane Vereen made Danny Woodhead expendable.  Look for Vereen to be a big factor in the passing game and take a lot of the targets that would have gone to Hernandez. 

To me the Patriots maintained this offseason on the defensive side of the ball, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.  Vince Wilfork remains the face and stomach of the defense up front.  They didn’t bring in anyone to provide a huge boost in the pass rush department, but if second year lineman Chandler Jones can remain healthy, he should lead the team in sacks.  Fellow second year man Don’t’a Hightower looks like a keeper too.  Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes may not lead the team in jersey sales, but they’re one of the steadiest pair of inside backers in the game.  Aqib Talb returns as their #1 corner, but they may lose Alfonzo Dennard for a while after his DUI arrest.  Devin McCourty has been solid since moving to free safety, but anticipated strong safety Adrian Wilson was placed on IR after the last preseason game.  Steve Gregory seeing more snaps again isn’t necessarily a good thing.  If I’m to worry about anything it’s the secondary, but they’ve done better with less before. 

This year is going to tell us a ton about Brady and Belichick.  Will they get outplayed again when it counts, or will Brady and his new stable of targets make another championship run?  I’m a believer. 

MVP – Tom Brady

Breakout – Shane Vereen

Disappointment – Alfonzo Dennard

2) Miami Dolphins

I find Miami to be an intriguing team entering this season.  They didn’t exactly play the patient game this offseason, acquiring Mike Wallace, Dustin Keller, Brent Grimes, Dannell Ellerbe, Tyson Clabo, and spending to retain Brian Hartline, Matt Moore, and Randy Starks.  They were active in the draft too, trading up from #12 to #3 to select Dion Jordan and took two corners I really liked in Jamar Taylor and Will Davis. 

That offseason momentum is carrying over this preseason as all reports out of Miami regarding second year QB Ryan Tannehill have been of the positive variety.  The former Aggie struggled through a 7-9 season but in spurts showed that he’s a guy the Dolphins can build their team around.  He’s established great chemistry with Hartline and adding the deep speed of Wallace and a #3 in Brandon Gibson will only help in his development.  Losing Keller for the year before the season even started was a setback.  They’re counting heavily on second year back Lamar Miller to replace Reggie Bush, so the Miami native’s performance could be the make or break point for the 2013 Dolphins.  I don’t see how they’re any better with the limited Daniel Thomas as primary ball carrier, so expect Miller to get every opportunity to succeed.  Jake Long did the slow band aid pull leave from Miami, and even if Long is more name than performance at this point, there will be a noticeable drop from him to Jonathan Martin. 

When the Dolphins moved up from 12 to 3 in the draft they shocked most fans with the selection of Jordan.  Rather than drafting a solution to their left tackle problem, they took possibly the draft’s best pass rusher but a player who is more fitted for the 3-4 defense the Dolphins ditched last year.  I’m a bit pessimistic as to how the pieces fit this scheme.  Jared Odrick is a better fit in a 3-4 front, and I believe the newly acquired Ellerbe is as well.  Brent Grimes replaces Sean Smith as the team’s top corner, and I think he’ll be an upgrade in performance assuming his Achilles is healed.  Unfortunately, Taylor hasn’t been able to beat out the uninspiring Dimitri Patterson for the other starting spot.  Strong safety Reshad Jones broke out in a big way last year and is the most impactful player on the back end of the unit. 

Rarely does a team that spends a lot in free agency make a quick turnaround.  I get that feeling with this Dolphins team as well.  Will Tannehill make the necessary second year leap with an unproven running back situation, a huge question mark protecting his blind side, and new receiving targets with which to get acquainted?  Is Brent Grimes Brent Grimes?  Will the new defensive pieces gel?  I think second place and an outside shot at a wild card spot is a nice goal for this team. 

MVP – Ryan Tannehill

Breakout – Lamar Miller

Disappointment – Mike Wallace

3) Buffalo Bills

You have to go back to 2007 to find a year when the Bills weren’t bringing up the conference rear.  A big reason for that significant struggle stretch has been the ineptitude at the QB position.  They went all in on EJ Manuel, making him the first passer off the board in this year’s draft.  With Kevin Kolb experiencing a possibly career-ending concussion, the Bills are going to learn a lot about their new investment right away. 

Whoever starts at QB will have one of the game’s most dangerous weapons at his disposal.  Not that his 1,700+ yards from scrimmage wasn’t impressive enough, but I think CJ Spiller is on the verge of a special season.  He seized the opportunity when Fred Jackson again went down with an injury and is clearly Buffalo’s best chance at moving the chains.  Last year Spiller tied Adrian Peterson for most yards per attempt by all running backs and had more runs of 20+ yards than anyone but Peterson.  Where I think he’ll elevate his game is total touchdowns.  Last year he scored six times on the ground and twice through the air.  I think he doubles that total this season.  When Manuel drops back to pass he’ll key mostly on Stevie Johnson and second rounder Robert Woods.  Johnson has caught at least 76 passes three years in a row which is quite the accomplishment considering former Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick’s limited ability as a passer.  I see Woods as a mature rookie who will be a reliable weapon for Manuel underneath. 

Mario Williams was brought in to be the savior of the defense last season, and he struggled through a marginally impressive 10.5 sack season with a wrist injury.  Pass rushers like Williams make their money with their hands, so his lack of dominance is somewhat understandable.  New DC Mike Pettine runs a hybrid front and will surely take better advantage of Williams’ ability as an end.  Marcell Dareus hasn’t been a bust, but if this defense (and team for that matter) is going to take a big step forward this year, they need more big plays from their big pick.  The secondary is headlined by two top talents in Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd.  The former was a real bright spot as a rookie, quickly becoming the man for opposing QBs to avoid, and the latter was the team’s franchise player.  Unfortunately, he broke his wrist in the preseason and is going to miss at least a third of the season.  Their linebackers leave a bit to be inspired, and I think that’s what keeps this defense from reaching higher heights.  That and Gilmore’s absence. 

If nothing else, the Bills offense should be fun to watch.  In addition to Manuel and Spiller, they’ll feature the veteran Johnson, rookie Woods, and speedster Marquise Goodwin.  Call me a homer, but since the Offensive ROY award historically goes to good QBs over better RBs, EJ is a legit candidate for that honor. 

MVP – CJ Spiller

Breakout – EJ Manuel

Disappointment – Manny Lawson

4) New York Jets

Those AFC championship games seem like a lifetime ago.  Thanksgiving night’s butt fumble epitomized the Jets pitiful 6-10 ‘13 season which has the boisterous Rex Ryan squarely on the New York hot seat. 

The Jets would love to move on from the Sanchise, but thanks to former GM Mike Tannenbaum’s genius, they would take a huge cap hit by releasing the disappointing QB.  Hell, David Garrard was poised to sit atop their depth chart until his knee finally gave out on him.  Geno Smith fell into their laps in the draft, but both he and Sanchez have been pitiful this preseason.  Since Sanchez got obliterated against the Giants in that controversial game, it looks like the rookie will get the honor of opening up as the starter. 

I think their brightest spot on offense is Chris Ivory, the former Saints backup acquired via trade this offseason.  Ivory is a power runner who fits in well with Ryan’s desire to be more of an attacking offense this season.  He’s more dynamic than last year’s top rusher, Shonn Greene, and has a chance to really shine assuming he can stay healthy.  There’s still nothing to get excited about at receiver.  Santonio Holmes has had three disappointing seasons in New York and is showing absolutely no motivation to get back on the field.  Stephen Hill disappeared after week one but heads into this year as a starter.  Jeremy Kerley and Clyde Gates are the alternatives.  Blech. 

How do you lose your best player and get better?  Darrelle Revis got his wish and got out of NY, leaving a huge hole in an already leaky defense.  Antonio Cromartie is still around and will be the #1 corner for a second year, but they will be asking a lot of first round pick Dee Milliner.  I’m taking the pessimistic side in this one, as I didn’t think Milliner was head and shoulders above the rest of the rookie corners (Xavier Rhodes will have a better career).  I actually think he’ll end up being a bust.  Fellow first rounder Sheldon Richardson will get a little more support working up front with NY’s two best defensive talents in Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples.  Wilkerson is their best player on this side of the ball and would get a lot more recognition with a decent supporting cast.  Coples is the guy whose individual performance could make the biggest impact on the entire unit. 

I’ve got to think that this is Rex’s last ride with the Jets, and with either a rookie or the butt fumbler under center throwing to this pathetic group of receivers, the odds are in my favor.  I gotta be honest.  I do take joy in watching this overly-covered, big market failure flounder. 

MVP – Muhammad Wilkerson

Breakout – Chris Ivory

Disappointment – Santonio Holmes

Division MVP – Tom Brady

Division Breakout – Shane Vereen

Division Disappointment – Mike Wallace