1) Houston
Texans
You might forget that the Texans were on their way to the #1
seed in the AFC last year before faltering down the stretch, losing three of
their last four regular season games in ugly fashion. They made it past the Bengals in the Wild
Card round but were handled by Brady and company in the next round. Last year Houston found out just how hard it is to stay
on top in this league. They took the
figurative knockout punch and couldn’t get up off the canvas. How will they respond in their next fight?
Matt Schaub has been a consistent presence under center in Houston , but they’d be a
much more dangerous team if he could raise his game another level. Teams fear Arian Foster and still respect
Andre Johnson, but you don’t get the sense that a lot of extra game planning is
focused specifically on Schaub. I’m
still a fan, but again, I wish he’d step his game up. Foster had a down year by his standards,
finishing just sixth in the league in rushing and posting a career low 4.1 ypc,
and as I type this he has yet to get on the field at all this preseason because
of leg and back injuries. Johnson
bounced back from two straight disappointing seasons and posted the second
highest reception total of his career.
The stats are nice, but Johnson appears to have passed his prime as a
game changing talent. The Texans have
needed a better #2 for a long time, but now they need to start grooming a new
#1. Enter DeAndre Hopkins. I’m a big fan of this receiver (my second
favorite in the draft behind Quinton Patton) and think Houston made an excellent selection. He’s a big play receiver in a big play
offense, and I think his quickness and footwork/precision are going to make him
an instant contributor.
If we play the word association game, and I say “Texans
defense”, you’d be lying if you said JJ Watt was not your first
thought. Last year’s Defensive Player of
the Year exploded for 20.5 sacks and an insane 16 defended passes. If he’s not taking the QB to the ground, he’s
swatting down his passes. The guy is the
best in the game at what he does, and there’s no reason to think he can’t or
won’t get better. I think they’re whole
defense gets better this year. Antonio
Smith is a great talent in his own right and the perfect Watt compliment. Brian Cushing returns from the ACL injury
that limited him to five games last year, and Brooks Reed will man one of the
outside linebacker spots. The other one
will be occupied by Whitney Mercilus, the second year player who registered a cool
six sacks in his debut season. If you’re
going to have concerns about this defense, they’ll reside in the
secondary. Ed Reed replaces Glover Quin,
but the former Raven doesn’t appear to be close to game-ready as the preseason winds
down. What will they get from him? At corner Kareem Jackson had a really strong ’12
season, but Johnathan Joseph is coming off double sports hernia surgery. Can’t say I’ve had that malady, but it doesn’t
sound fun.
MVP – JJ Watt
Breakout – DeAndre Hopkins
Disappointment – Ed Reed
2) Indianapolis
Colts
It’s pretty clear that the Texans and Colts are the two best
teams in the division. Up next for the
Colts is closing that gap between them and the Texans. Indy was one of the surprise teams from ’12, transitioning
from the “Suck for Luck” campaign to the “Win One for Chuck” theme of last
year. I won’t bore you with the numbers,
but the Colts were statistically very fortunate last season. Will the ball bounce their way as often in
’13?
Andrew Luck looked every bit the #1 pick last year, leading
the previously 2-14 Colts to an amazing 11 win season and a trip to the
playoffs. As impressive as he was last
season, Luck must be smarter with the ball and his body. Enter Pep Hamilton, Lucks’ offensive
coordinator his last year at Stanford. I
think Luck will have an even better ’13 season under Hamilton , cutting down on the low percentage
plays that led to turnovers and not taking as many hits while making plays with
his feet. Reggie Wayne showed that
rumors of his demise had been greatly exaggerated by finishing sixth in the
league with 106 receptions. The veteran
and the rookie were clearly on the same page from the get go. TY Hilton provides big play potential, and
Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are plus talents in the middle. I’m a big fan of the former as I think he has
a chance to be one of the better all-round TEs in the game. Ahmad Bradshaw and his funky foot were
brought in to give the Colts their first 1,000 yard rusher since Joseph Addai
eclipsed the mark by 72 yards six seasons ago, but he didn’t notch a single
carry in the preseason. Expect to see a
lot of Vick Ballard again this year.
As good as the Colts were at churning out yards on offense,
they remained among the league’s worst in giving them up on defense. I’m still not sure I like what’s going on
with this side of the football. Gone is
longtime pass rusher Dwight Freeney who was replaced by perennial Packer disappointment,
Erik Walden. Robert Mathis is still
here, and they drafted Bjoern Werner to eventually replace him. While I love Werner’s game, I’m not sure this
scheme maximizes his potential. Perplexing
pick. It doesn’t appear that they’ll get
to the passer with any more frequency this season, so the secondary will again
be under constant fire. They should be
better equipped to respond this year.
Greg Toler was signed to compliment Vontae Davis at corner, and LaRon
Landry was brought in to give them a presence at safety. I liked Toler as a target for the Bucs, and
Landry is as fierce as they come when healthy.
Even with improvements on both sides of the ball, I think
the Colts will be fortunate to repeat least year’s win total. It should still be plenty good for a second
place finish, but with teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, and Chiefs making
noise in the conference, will they win enough to get back to the
postseason?
MVP – Andrew Luck
Breakout – Dwayne Allen
Disappointment – Darrius Heyward-Bey
3) Tennessee
Titans
It seems like forever ago that the Titans were relevant, but
they’re just five seasons removed from a 13-3 season. That’s what happens when you come off a
season with, seriously, only one meaningful win (week 6 v. Pittsburgh ).
The combined wins of the other five teams they beat was a whopping 25.
Chris Johnson is an enigma.
It feels like he’s been around forever, but this is just his sixth
season. He’s a big name player who has
put together two disappointing seasons in a row, but if you really look at
things, aside from the huge ’09 season where he totaled over 2,500 yards from
scrimmage, he’s been unspectacular. The
Titans invested heavily in upgrading his blocking this offseason, adding guards
Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack and three other veteran linemen. The time is now for Johnson to show that he’s
still a special talent. It’s also time
for Jake Locker to figure it out or take a seat. Entering his third season as a pro and second
as starter Locker hasn’t shown much progression and is still far too inaccurate
for this level. They’ve got a nice, not
great, stable of receivers for him to work with, including Kendall Wright, Kenny
Britt, Nate Washington, and Justin Hunter.
Wright had an impressive rookie season and is Lockers’ primary target at
this point. Britt, disappointingly,
can’t get over his knee issues.
There’s a bit to like on the defensive side of the ball. Derrick Morgan looked to be coming into his
own, finally, as a pass rusher late last season, registering four sacks in his
final four games. They brought in Sammie
Lee Hill to go with Jerrell Casey, giving them a pair of run stuffing
tackles. I like their young linebacker
trio – Zach Brown, Colin McCarthy, and Akeem Ayers. Both Brown and Ayers showed a well-rounded
game last year; making plays against the run, against the pass, and getting
after the passer for a combined 11.5 sacks.
Things should get better in the secondary with scheme and personnel
changes. Moving to a press man scheme
will make better use of Jason McCourty’s skills and get Tommie Campbell on the
field more. Michael Griffin has been
awful at free safety, but he’s still the starter. They’ve been working Alterraun Verner there
some, so maybe he’ll take the spot soon.
Bernard Pollard looks to have the strong safety spot over fellow free
agent signing George Wilson.
I can’t get excited about this team until Locker resembles a
professional passer for a decent stretch of games. Will that happen? Will Johnson be rejuvenated with better
blocking? We’ll find out soon
enough.
MVP – Chris Johnson
Breakout – Zach Brown
Disappointment – Jake Locker
4) Jacksonville
Jaguars
The Mike Mularkey experiment didn’t last too long did
it? Out after 16 games (2 of them wins),
the Jaguars are looking for their third coach in three seasons. Enter Gus Bradley. The talent on the roster didn’t change
drastically this offseason, but Bradley brings an impressive scheme and
background to Jacksonville .
‘Dysfunctional’ may not be the best way to describe the
Jaguars, but that’s the word that comes to mind when I think of them. Blaine Gabbert has been pathetic in his two
years in Jacksonville
and apparently hasn’t gotten any better if his play this preseason is any
indicator. Oh, and he’s entering the
year with an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand. How bad must Chad Henne be to still be
sitting behind this guy? Maurice
Jones-Drew suffered the first significant injury of his career last season,
limiting him to just six games and a single rushing touchdown. It seems like he’s been around forever, but
MJD is just 28 years old. As long as his
foot is healed, I like his chances to bounce back as a lethal weapon, despite
the lack of surrounding talent. Justin
Blackmon hasn’t figured out how to be a pro yet. In addition to starting the year on
suspension, he can’t even behave on the sidelines as an observer. Stay hot young man. Cecil Shorts is the best receiver on the
team. He had five games with at least
six receptions and totaled at least 100 yards four times. If only he had a quarterback.
Last year only the Bills and Saints surrendered more rushing
yards per game than the Jaguars. No one
registered less sacks. Bradley has
nowhere to go but up with this defense.
Who are his key pieces? Well, not
Ezekiel Ansah. Not Dion Jordan . Nope, no pass rusher needed here. The Jaguars thought it would be in their best
interests to take a right tackle with the #2 pick in the draft rather than a
pass rusher. Tyson Alualu led the way
last year with 3.5 sacks. That’s
sad. Jason Babin will probably be their
most successful pass rusher, but that’s not saying much. Backing up a pathetic pass rush is a sorry
secondary. Derek Cox wasn’t great, but
he was easily the best corner on the roster last season. I like Dwayne Gratz, but he’s a rookie. Teams will throw all over Alan Ball. There’s no point discussing this group any
further. Moving on.
These guys should once again be in the race for the first
overall pick.
MVP – Maurice Jones-Drew
Breakout – Cecil Shorts
Disappointment – Justin Blackmon
Division MVP – Andrew Luck
Division Breakout – DeAndre Hopkins
Division Disappointment – Jake Locker
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