1) Green Bay
Packers
The Packers had double digit wins for the fourth straight
year, but the ’12 season reeked of disappointment, especially being dominated
by the 49ers in the playoffs. Has the
Packer magic worn off, or are the former champs under the radar heading into
’13?
He didn’t win his second MVP last year, but I still list
Aaron Rodgers as the best player in the game.
Quarterback solidifies itself more and more each year as the most
important position in the sport, and there’s not a better combo of arm, legs,
guts, and intelligence in it. What’s
even more impressive is how Rodgers has become the game’s best while having no
threat of a run game the last three seasons.
With the drafting of Eddie Lacy, the Packers are now dangerous on the
ground. I have no delusions that they’ll
become a balanced offense, but adding a talented big back now forces defenses
to respect the run. When Rodgers does
drop back to pass he won’t be looking for Greg Jennings anymore. After seven years in Green
Bay , Jennings
has joined the rival Vikings. That said,
I don’t expect the passing game to miss a beat.
Randall Cobb exploded for 80 catches and 9 total TDs in ’12 and, not
counting Rodgers, is the team’s most dangerous weapon. James Jones figured it out and had a career
year, doubling his previous season TD high of seven. I think he has another strong season. Jordy Nelson fought injuries most of the year
and wasn’t the vertical playmaker he had been in ’11. He’s slowed by an injury this preseason, so
his will be a situation to monitor.
Jermichael Finley might be this year’s Jones. Reports have him and Rodgers clicking better
than ever. We shall see. Only the Cardinals’ excuse for an offensive
line surrendered more sacks than the Packers last year, and Rodgers is one of
the most mobile (not necessarily fastest) QBs in the game. Some of that is on Rodgers. I saw him try to make too much happen at
times and hold the ball longer than he should have. He wasn’t as decisive as he’d been the last
two seasons. The rest (and most) of the
blame goes to the offensive line. Sadly,
they’re not off to a good start this year, as Bryan Bulaga is done with an ACL
injury. The fact that Mike McCarthy is
starting a rookie on Rodgers’ blind side should tell you all you need to know
about his opinion of Marshall Newhouse.
The guards flip flopped. Josh Sitton
moved to the left side, and TJ Lang moved to the right due in part to how well
Sitton did at left guard in the Pro Bowl.
It won’t matter how good the Packers offense is if the
defense doesn’t step up, especially considering the high odds of whoever wins
the NFC having to go through Seattle and/or San Francisco . Lacy gets the most attention from this year’s
draftees, but Datone Jones, the guy picked first by the Packers, has a chance
to be as impactful on the other side of the ball. Green
Bay tried and failed the last two offseasons to fill
the hole left by Cullen Jenkins. I
believe adding Jones addresses the hole.
Projecting as a force against both the pass and the run, I love lining
him up next to BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett.
The former is coming off what has to be a disappointing season, as he
wasn’t the impactful player from the previous two seasons. I’ve got to think adding Jones helps
that. At linebacker, Clay Matthews
remains the Packers playmaker.
Impressively, he was able to tally 13 sacks despite the Packers not
having any other legit pass rushers.
Nick Perry’s rookie season was basically a lost one, as he was
unimpressive in the six games he did suite up.
They’ve got to get a lot more from him this season, and preseason
reports have been positive. The Packers
are a solid three deep at corner with Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, and Sam
Shields. I like Shield and think he’s in
line for a big contract real soon.
Charles Woodson was declining, but they didn’t work hard enough to
upgrade the position. I’m big on Morgan
Burnett at strong safety but am holding my breath on MD Jennings.
The Packers didn’t have a lot going for them last year, but
the threat of a run game should work wonders this year. I think they’re better defensively but still
have to show that they can bang heads with Seattle and San Fran and emerge
victorious.
MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Breakout – Datone Jones
Disappointment – Jordy Nelson
Disappointment – Jordy Nelson
2) Chicago
Bears
Last year’s Bears owned the dubious distinction of being the
league’s only 10 win team not to make the playoffs. Their downfall was a 1-5 stretch from
November through December, all games against teams that made the playoffs.
Defense isn’t the problem in Chicago .
The Bears were able to make a run at the playoffs despite having the
league’s 28th rated offense in terms of yards per game. Enter Marc Trestman, the new head coach of
the Chicago Bears. The reputed offensive
coordinator / QB coach is the best offensive mind this team has seen in quite
some time. I’m intrigued by this
situation. Jay Cutler is one of the more
off-putting players in the game. He’s
rude. He hits his teammates. He’s just not a real friendly guy. While he’ll never be confused with Aaron
Rodgers or Drew Brees, Cutler does own a 34-22 record as QB of the Bears. He’s got great chemistry with Brandon
Marshall, and I think Alshon Jeffrey has a chance to be a threatening #2. Free agent signing Martellus Bennett is a
huge upgrade over Kellen Davis and his pathetic 19 receptions last season. Matt Forte could be in for a career year, as I
believe Trestman will make better use of his skills set. In addition to Trestman, the Bears upgraded
the offense by signing left tackle Jermon Bushrod and drafting right guard Kyle
Long. They’re still a below average unit
up front, but both the on-field and off-field additions should dramatically
improve upon last year’s 28th place ranking.
For the first time in 14 years the Bears will suit up
without Brian Urlacher as a member of the team.
The eight time Pro Bowler retired after flirting with the idea of
signing with another team this offseason.
Who replaces Urlacher? Free agent
DJ Williams and draftee Jon Bostic will replace him on the roster, but his
presence will be sorely missed. Lance
Briggs returns on the weak side for what seems like his 50th year
with the Bears. He’s still productive,
but I like Khaseem Greene as a guy to bring along slowly as his eventual
replacement. Julius Peppers is still the
best player on defense. I’m not sure
it’s fair to consider him underrated, but due to his non-spotlight-seeking
personality, I think Peppers goes a bit under the radar for as great of a
player he is. He’s missed just 6 games
in his 11 year career (4 of those coming in his rookie year) and is
consistently one of the league leaders in sacks. I like the potential of Corey Wootton and
Shea McClellin as complimentary pass rushers.
Henry Melton is one of the game’s best interior pass rushers and is a handful
with or without Peppers’ presence. Most
teams would love to have a secondary as reliable as Chicago ’s.
They’re not incredibly flashy, but Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are
easily one of the best corner combos in the league. Just ask Aaron Rodgers.
I like the Trestman hire and believe it will be a much more
productive (and stable) situation on offense than they’ve known, especially
compared to what they were under the genius
that was Mike Martz. Unintentionally sadistically,
I see these Bears team as another double digit winning, fringe playoff
team.
MVP – Matt Forte
Breakout – Shea McClellin
Disappointment – DJ Williams
3) Minnesota
Vikings
Adrian Peterson put the Vikings on his back last year and
was reasons 1, 2, and 3 why this team made the playoffs. If I played the word association game with
this team, a negative thought would come to mind, but this is a franchise that
has made the playoffs three of the last five seasons, which is more than the
Cowboys and Bears combined.
If you didn’t already know, MVPeterson showed himself to be
an absolute freak last year, winning the league rushing title in Usain Bolt
style, all while coming back from a late ’11 ACL injury. Dude is insane. He’ll have to produce another MVP caliber
season for this team to have any shot at making the postseason. He’s the Miguel Cabrera of the NFL. Unfortunately for the Vikings, they’ve been
held back, not elevated, by the play of their QB, Christian Ponder. I love Ponder and have an obvious bias, but
he has an admittedly limited skill set that will keep the Vikings from being an
elite team. They signed Greg Jennings,
who is the best pure receiver (non-Harvin tpe) they’ve had since Randy Moss,
and took Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round of the draft. If you look up ‘security blanket’ in the
dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Kyle Rudolph. Ponder relied on him heavily last season in
the red zone. If you consider his
chemistry with Rudolph and the additions of Jennings and Patterson, you’ve got to like
Ponder’s chances of showing progress this season.
This defense isn’t as feared as it once was. That’s not a shot at Jared Allen, the team’s
leading pass rusher who notched “only” 12 sacks a year after tallying 20. They simply lack any presence outside of
Rodeo and will struggle to consistently hang with the Packers, Bears, and
possibly Lions. Brian Robison and
Everson Griffen had fine years as well, but they obviously benefit from Allen’s
presence. Sharrif Floyd fell in Minny’s
lap in the draft. I like their depth in
the middle with him, Kevin Williams, Letroy Guion, and Fred Evans. I don’t like what’s going on at
linebacker. Chad Greenway isn’t fully
recovered from knee surgery, and free agent signing Desmond Bishop can’t get
healthy. Instability at linebacker may
be their downfall. I’m not quite sure
why the Vikings got rid of Antoine Winfield.
He was easily their best corner, despite being a decrepit 36 years
old. They did however take my favorite
corner in the draft, Xavier Rhodes. He
and Ryan Cook will be tested heavily, especially within the division. Harrison Smith had a strong rookie season, but
they continue to lack at the other safety position.
They were overachievers as a team last season thanks to an
MVP season from Peterson, and I think he can come close to that kind of year
again. They’ll absolutely need it if
they hope to be playing again in January.
MVP – Adrian Peterson
Breakout – Xavier Rhodes
Disappointment – Desmond Bishop
4) Detroit
Lions
There’s just something about this team that screams “loser”
to me. Great individual talent but a
mess of a team. How else can you explain
a roster like this having a 4-12 record last season?
Matthew Stafford finished second to Drew Brees is total
passing yards last year but was a disappointing 19th in touchdowns
with 20. The fact that Sam Bradford and
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for more touchdowns that the guy who was second in the
league in yardage should say something.
Can Stafford produce when it matters? Not to discount Stafford ,
but a great bit of his yardage comes via the beast of a man that is Calvin
Johnson. Easily the biggest downfield
threat in football, Johnson, not Stafford , is
the reason the Lions are a productive on this side of the ball as they
are. Ryan Broyles, he of the dual ACL
injuries, is expected to rise to the task of #2 receiver. I’ve never been a huge Reggie Bush fan, but
this has to be the perfect fit for the former ‘Phin. In this offense, he has a chance to be as
productive in the passing game as he was in his first two years as a pro (88
receptions in ’06 and 73 receptions in ’07).
Calvin’s obviously the man, but don’t be surprised when Bush finishes
second on the team in receptions, by a wide margin. Mikel Leshoure led the team in rushing in
’12, but I think Joique Bell will end up being more of a factor on offense this
season when (not if) Bush misses time with an injury.
The Lions have been a disappointment on this side of the
ball as well, but the blame cannot be placed on the two men in the middle. Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairly may be the most
dominant pair of defensive tackles in the game.
Farily closed the gap between the two significantly last season and may
prove to be Suh’s equal before all is said and done in ’13. First round pick Ziggy Ansah replaces free
agent Cliff Avril at defensive end and gives them a raw, albeit athletic pass
rusher. Jason Jones is a steady, if not
spectacular presence on the other side.
I like Stephen Tulloch, but I think the lack of playmaking potential at
linebacker will hurt the Lions this year.
They got quite a bit better in the secondary with the additions of
Darius Slay and Glover Quin. I liked
Slay more than his MSU teammate Johnthan Banks and think he’s going to be a
solid cover man across from Chris Houston.
Quinn is a similarly strong pairing with Louis Delmas.
Aside from ’11, which was their one playoff season that
ended in forgettable fashion, this is a team that has gone 12-36 under Jim
Schwartz. Unless they can repeat the
10-6 season of ’11, the Schwartz won’t be with Detroit in ’14. I just don’t get a good feeling at all about
this team and have to place them fourth.
MVP – Calvin Johnson
Breakout – Joique Bell
Disappointment – Matthew Stafford
Division MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Division Breakout – Datone Jones
Division Disappointment – Matthew Stafford
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