1) New England Patriots
In what will likely be the league’s weakest division, I’ve
got the Patriots on top for the 5th year in a row. That speaks as much to the lack of
competition within the division as it does the continued dominance by New England . A lot
has changed for the Patriots since last we saw them. Are they still a team to fear?
Tom Brady remains of the game’s best, but is this the year
we see a decline? He didn’t exactly
finish the season on a high note, getting overwhelmed and beaten at home by Baltimore . Remember how slow and out of rhythm he looked
in that game? How will he deal with
losing Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez?
When will his other tight end be healthy? Despite the adversity, I think we see vintage
Tom Brady this year; an MVP caliber season.
What’s there to get excited about?
Danny Amendola was brought in to play the Welker role and should put up
career numbers if he can stay on the field.
Undrafted free agent rookie Kenbrell Thompkins has been turning heads
this preseason and has sewn up the other wideout spot. He’s definitely a guy to watch. Zach Sudfeld is expected to replace Gronk in
the early going, and while there’s an obvious drop off in talent, the Patriots
have loved what they’ve seen from him this preseason. With the way Belichick utilizes tight ends,
expect Sudfeld to remain part of the plan even when Gronk returns. Stevan Ridley is an excellent fit in this
offense as the early down back, and the play and potential of Shane Vereen made
Danny Woodhead expendable. Look for
Vereen to be a big factor in the passing game and take a lot of the targets
that would have gone to Hernandez.
To me the Patriots maintained this offseason on the
defensive side of the ball, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Vince Wilfork remains the face and stomach of
the defense up front. They didn’t bring
in anyone to provide a huge boost in the pass rush department, but if second
year lineman Chandler Jones can remain healthy, he should lead the team in
sacks. Fellow second year man Don’t’a
Hightower looks like a keeper too. Jerod
Mayo and Brandon Spikes may not lead the team in jersey sales, but they’re one
of the steadiest pair of inside backers in the game. Aqib Talb returns as their #1 corner, but
they may lose Alfonzo Dennard for a while after his DUI arrest. Devin McCourty has been solid since moving to
free safety, but anticipated strong safety Adrian Wilson was placed on IR after
the last preseason game. Steve Gregory
seeing more snaps again isn’t necessarily a good thing. If I’m to worry about anything it’s the
secondary, but they’ve done better with less before.
This year is going to tell us a ton about Brady and
Belichick. Will they get outplayed again
when it counts, or will Brady and his new stable of targets make another
championship run? I’m a believer.
MVP – Tom Brady
Breakout – Shane Vereen
Disappointment – Alfonzo Dennard
2) Miami
Dolphins
I find Miami
to be an intriguing team entering this season.
They didn’t exactly play the patient game this offseason, acquiring Mike
Wallace, Dustin Keller, Brent Grimes, Dannell Ellerbe, Tyson Clabo, and
spending to retain Brian Hartline, Matt Moore, and Randy Starks. They were active in the draft too, trading up
from #12 to #3 to select Dion Jordan
and took two corners I really liked in Jamar Taylor and Will Davis.
That offseason momentum is carrying over this preseason as
all reports out of Miami
regarding second year QB Ryan Tannehill have been of the positive variety. The former Aggie struggled through a 7-9
season but in spurts showed that he’s a guy the Dolphins can build their team
around. He’s established great chemistry
with Hartline and adding the deep speed of Wallace and a #3 in Brandon Gibson
will only help in his development. Losing
Keller for the year before the season even started was a setback. They’re counting heavily on second year back
Lamar Miller to replace Reggie Bush, so the Miami native’s performance could be the make
or break point for the 2013 Dolphins. I
don’t see how they’re any better with the limited Daniel Thomas as primary ball
carrier, so expect Miller to get every opportunity to succeed. Jake Long did the slow band aid pull leave
from Miami , and
even if Long is more name than performance at this point, there will be a
noticeable drop from him to Jonathan Martin.
When the Dolphins moved up from 12 to 3 in the draft they
shocked most fans with the selection of Jordan . Rather than drafting a solution to their left
tackle problem, they took possibly the draft’s best pass rusher but a player
who is more fitted for the 3-4 defense the Dolphins ditched last year. I’m a bit pessimistic as to how the pieces
fit this scheme. Jared Odrick is a
better fit in a 3-4 front, and I believe the newly acquired Ellerbe is as
well. Brent Grimes replaces Sean Smith
as the team’s top corner, and I think he’ll be an upgrade in performance
assuming his Achilles is healed. Unfortunately,
Taylor hasn’t
been able to beat out the uninspiring Dimitri Patterson for the other starting
spot. Strong safety Reshad Jones broke
out in a big way last year and is the most impactful player on the back end of
the unit.
Rarely does a team that spends a lot in free agency make a
quick turnaround. I get that feeling
with this Dolphins team as well. Will
Tannehill make the necessary second year leap with an unproven running back
situation, a huge question mark protecting his blind side, and new receiving
targets with which to get acquainted? Is
Brent Grimes Brent Grimes? Will the new
defensive pieces gel? I think second
place and an outside shot at a wild card spot is a nice goal for this
team.
MVP – Ryan Tannehill
Breakout – Lamar Miller
Disappointment – Mike Wallace
3) Buffalo
Bills
You have to go back to 2007 to find a year when the Bills
weren’t bringing up the conference rear.
A big reason for that significant struggle stretch has been the
ineptitude at the QB position. They went
all in on EJ Manuel, making him the first passer off the board in this year’s
draft. With Kevin Kolb experiencing a
possibly career-ending concussion, the Bills are going to learn a lot about
their new investment right away.
Whoever starts at QB will have one of the game’s most
dangerous weapons at his disposal. Not
that his 1,700+ yards from scrimmage wasn’t impressive enough, but I think CJ
Spiller is on the verge of a special season.
He seized the opportunity when Fred Jackson again went down with an
injury and is clearly Buffalo ’s
best chance at moving the chains. Last
year Spiller tied Adrian Peterson for most yards per attempt by all running
backs and had more runs of 20+ yards than anyone but Peterson. Where I think he’ll elevate his game is total
touchdowns. Last year he scored six
times on the ground and twice through the air.
I think he doubles that total this season. When Manuel drops back to pass he’ll key
mostly on Stevie Johnson and second rounder Robert Woods. Johnson has caught at least 76 passes three
years in a row which is quite the accomplishment considering former Bill Ryan
Fitzpatrick’s limited ability as a passer.
I see Woods as a mature rookie who will be a reliable weapon for Manuel
underneath.
Mario Williams was brought in to be the savior of the
defense last season, and he struggled through a marginally impressive 10.5 sack
season with a wrist injury. Pass rushers
like Williams make their money with their hands, so his lack of dominance is
somewhat understandable. New DC Mike
Pettine runs a hybrid front and will surely take better advantage of Williams’
ability as an end. Marcell Dareus hasn’t
been a bust, but if this defense (and team for that matter) is going to take a
big step forward this year, they need more big plays from their big pick. The secondary is headlined by two top talents
in Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd. The
former was a real bright spot as a rookie, quickly becoming the man for
opposing QBs to avoid, and the latter was the team’s franchise player. Unfortunately, he broke his wrist in the
preseason and is going to miss at least a third of the season. Their linebackers leave a bit to be inspired,
and I think that’s what keeps this defense from reaching higher heights. That and Gilmore’s absence.
If nothing else, the Bills offense should be fun to
watch. In addition to Manuel and
Spiller, they’ll feature the veteran Johnson, rookie Woods, and speedster Marquise
Goodwin. Call me a homer, but since the
Offensive ROY award historically goes to good QBs over better RBs, EJ is a
legit candidate for that honor.
MVP – CJ Spiller
Breakout – EJ Manuel
Disappointment – Manny Lawson
4) New York
Jets
Those AFC championship games seem like a lifetime ago. Thanksgiving night’s butt fumble epitomized
the Jets pitiful 6-10 ‘13 season which has the boisterous Rex Ryan squarely on
the New York
hot seat.
The Jets would love to move on from the Sanchise, but thanks
to former GM Mike Tannenbaum’s genius, they would take a huge cap hit by
releasing the disappointing QB. Hell,
David Garrard was poised to sit atop their depth chart until his knee finally
gave out on him. Geno Smith fell into
their laps in the draft, but both he and Sanchez have been pitiful this
preseason. Since Sanchez got obliterated
against the Giants in that controversial game, it looks like the rookie will
get the honor of opening up as the starter.
I think their brightest spot on offense is Chris Ivory, the
former Saints backup acquired via trade this offseason. Ivory is a power runner who fits in well with
Ryan’s desire to be more of an attacking offense this season. He’s more dynamic than last year’s top
rusher, Shonn Greene, and has a chance to really shine assuming he can stay
healthy. There’s still nothing to get
excited about at receiver. Santonio
Holmes has had three disappointing seasons in New York and is showing absolutely no
motivation to get back on the field. Stephen
Hill disappeared after week one but heads into this year as a starter. Jeremy Kerley and Clyde Gates are the
alternatives. Blech.
How do you lose your best player and get better? Darrelle Revis got his wish and got out of
NY, leaving a huge hole in an already leaky defense. Antonio Cromartie is still around and will be
the #1 corner for a second year, but they will be asking a lot of first round
pick Dee Milliner. I’m taking the
pessimistic side in this one, as I didn’t think Milliner was head and shoulders
above the rest of the rookie corners (Xavier Rhodes will have a better
career). I actually think he’ll end up
being a bust. Fellow first rounder
Sheldon Richardson will get a little more support working up front with NY’s
two best defensive talents in Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples. Wilkerson is their best player on this side
of the ball and would get a lot more recognition with a decent supporting
cast. Coples is the guy whose individual
performance could make the biggest impact on the entire unit.
I’ve got to think that this is Rex’s last ride with the
Jets, and with either a rookie or the butt fumbler under center throwing to
this pathetic group of receivers, the odds are in my favor. I gotta be honest. I do take joy in watching this
overly-covered, big market failure flounder.
MVP – Muhammad Wilkerson
Breakout – Chris Ivory
Disappointment – Santonio Holmes
Division MVP – Tom Brady
Division Breakout – Shane Vereen
Division Disappointment – Mike Wallace
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